Rosenthal’s Full Count Video: Dunn, Oswalt, Haren
In his latest Full Count video at FOX Sports, Ken Rosenthal looks at possible next moves for the Angels, Yankees, Mets, and White Sox. Let's check out the highlights….
- The Angels are expected to respond in some form to the Rangers' acquisition of Cliff Lee, with a corner infield bat still their top priority. While Rosenthal agrees that the Halos would like a third baseman who's under team control past this season, he thinks they could look at a rental for first base, since Kendry Morales will be back next spring.
- Besides Adam Dunn, Rosenthal names Jose Bautista, Adam LaRoche, Ty Wigginton, and Jorge Cantu as potential fits for the Angels, suggesting Bautista makes the most sense. Rosenthal also speculates that, if their respective teams made them available, Mark Reynolds and Casey McGehee would intrigue the defending AL West champs.
- Lee was the only starting pitcher the Yankees really coveted, so don't expect them to pursue players like Roy Oswalt or Dan Haren now that they missed out on the left-hander.
- Rosenthal expresses skepticism that Oswalt or Haren will get dealt at all. Houston doesn't appear willing to take on enough of their ace's contract, while the D'Backs would need to be "blown away" to trade Haren.
- The Mets' search for pitching has them looking at Jake Westbrook and a handful of other arms. Rosenthal notes that the team has had interest in Octavio Dotel as a free agent in the past, and that some members of the Mets' organization are "wary" of Ted Lilly.
- The White Sox made a run at Cliff Lee, but never got close to landing him. Although a left-handed bat remains their biggest need, there aren't many on the market who appeal to them besides Dunn, whose price tag is "exorbitant." They might settle for acquiring a right-handed hitter, and could also pursue another starter if Daniel Hudson struggles.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Mets, Red Sox, Meek, Giants
On this date eight years ago, Major League Baseball's 73rd All Star Game ended after 11 innings in a 7-7 tie when both sides ran out of pitchers. Shortly thereafter, commissioner Bud Selig ruled that the All Star Game will determine home field advantage in the World Series, a still unpopular decision. The American League has won every Midsummer Classic since then, and 12 of the last 13 overall (the tie being the one exception).
This year's All Star Game is still four days away, so here are some links to keep you occupied until then…
- Mets Paradise examines some trade scenarios for the Mets involving Ted Lilly and Octavio Dotel.
- The Bottom Line finds some relievers on the trade market that could entice the Red Sox.
- MLB Depth Charts lists (almost) every club's nearly big league-ready trade chips.
- Pittsburgh Lumber Co. looks at the possibility of the Pirates turning Evan Meek, an All Star, into a starting pitcher.
- The Dugout Report wonders if the Bengie Molina trade means the Giants are going for it, or packing it in.
- Meanwhile, More Hardball catches up with the three Molina brothers.
- River Ave. Blues lays out the case for the Yankees to acquire Kerry Wood.
- Examiner looks at the consequences of Jake Peavy's injury for the White Sox.
- The Baseball Opinion reviews the Mark Mulder trade following the lefty's retirement.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
What The Elias Rankings Mean For Trade Candidates
Many of this year's trade candidates share a distinguishing characteristic: they are about to become free agents. After the season, their teams will decide whether to offer arbitration and have a chance at top picks in next year's draft. A player's ranking can contribute to or detract from his trade value, so let's take a look at some of this year's trade candidates and see where they place under our reverse-engineered Elias rankings.
We'll start with some trade candidates who project as Type A free agents. If these players decline arbitration offers to sign elsewhere, their former teams will receive two top picks in the 2011 draft. These players are sometimes more inclined to accept arbitration, since their Type A status can intimidate would-be suitors who don't want to surrender a pick (just ask Juan Cruz and Orlando Hudson).
It's important to note that teams don't necessarily give first rounders up to sign the players below. The first 15 picks are protected and sometimes teams sign more than one Type A player. Say the Red Sox sign Adam Dunn (75.8 ranking) and Scott Downs (74.6 ranking) and both were offered arb. The Nationals would get Boston's top pick and the Blue Jays would get their second-best pick because Dunn ranks higher than Downs. In that instance, Downs only costs the Red Sox a second rounder.
Once a team signs one Type A free agent, the cost of signing a second and a third drops, since the club is giving up lesser picks. Rafael Soriano (88.9), Vladimir Guerrero (88.6), Carl Crawford (85.5), Javier Vazquez (79.0) and Adrian Beltre (78.9) could all get arbitration offers this winter, so Type As, especially lower-ranked players, don't always cost a first rounder. With that in mind, here are some trade candidates who currently have Type A status:
- Cliff Lee (91.8) – He is getting an arbitration offer and turning it down. Lee's Type A status boosts his trade value.
- Jayson Werth (86.0) – Same goes for Werth.
- David DeJesus (78.3)- Matt Klaassen of FanGraphs argued yesterday that the Royals shouldn't offer arbitration, since DeJesus would accept. It's entirely possible that the Royals can get more value for DeJesus in a trade, but I don't think DeJesus would necessarily accept arbitration. He will easily be a top-five outfielder if his team lets him hit free agency instead of picking up his $6MM option. And if he accepts? The team has an above-average outfielder on an affordable one-year deal.
- Adam Dunn (75.8) – He will get an arbitration offer and will probably turn it down. Dunn's Type A status boosts his trade value.
- Scott Downs (74.6) – Earlier this week, I suggested the Blue Jays could offer Downs arbitration and either collect the picks or pay him $5MM or so in 2011. There's a good chance that Downs accepts an offer of arbitration, but the chance at two top picks probably makes that a risk worth taking.
- Miguel Tejada (74.4) – It's hard to imagine teams forfeiting picks to sign Tejada. It seems unlikely that a team would offer arbitration. Tejada's Type A status doesn't affect his trade value (and he is only a couple points away from becoming a Type B).
- Ted Lilly (74.3) – Lilly will be a top free agent starter after the season, so the Cubs will likely offer arbitration. Lilly's Type A status boosts his trade value.
And here are some players who currently project as Type B free agents. These players will bring their former teams a supplementary round pick if they decline arbitration to sign elsewhere. But teams don't have to give up their picks to sign Type Bs, which makes these players appealing as free agents.
- John Buck – J. P. Arencibia is Toronto's catcher of the future, but it's easy to imagine the Blue Jays (or another team) offering Buck arbitration after the season. It worked last year, when the Jays got a supplemental rounder for losing Rod Barajas. Buck wouldn't make much through arbitration, so his Type B status boosts his trade value.
- Jose Guillen – It's extremely hard to imagine the Royals offering arbitration. His Type B status does not affect his trade value.
- Mike Lowell – Same goes for Lowell.
- Kevin Millwood – And for Millwood.
- Jason Frasor – Frasor makes only $2.65MM this year, so he wouldn't be making an overwhelming amount even if he accepted arbitration. Obtaining a pick for Frasor would be a plus, so his Type B status helps his trade value.
- Derrek Lee – Given Lee's struggles and salary, it's hard to imagine his team offering arbitration.
- Cristian Guzman – Guzman makes $8MM this year and though players aren't guaranteed raises via this kind of arbitration, Guzman isn't even worth his current salary on the open market. An arbitration offer seems unlikely, so his status doesn't affect his trade value.
- Octavio Dotel – Like Frasor, Dotel could see an offer of arbitration, depending on how he finishes the season, so his Type B status helps his trade value. The Pirates have a $4MM option for Dotel that becomes mutual if he is traded.
- Aaron Heilman – It seems unlikely that the D'Backs would feel comfortable offering Heilman arbitration, given his inconsistent performance in 2010, so his status doesn't help his trade value.
Price On Oswalt, Wood, Dotel, Marlins
Earlier today, we heard rumors from AOL FanHouse's Ed Price involving Cliff Lee and the Tigers' hunt for bullpen help. In his latest column, Price provides a few more hot stove notes. Let's take a look:
- According to Price, the Astros are looking for teams interested in Roy Oswalt to take on Oswalt's entire salary and give up three major-league-ready players. There have been indications lately that the Astros would be willing to pay part of their ace's salary in order to get better prospects, so it's hard to believe the team will stick to the demands described by Price.
- The Indians have been trying to drum up interest for Kerry Wood.
- Pittsburgh "seems willing" to move Octavio Dotel.
- A source tells Price that members of the Marlins' front office will meet this week to decide whether to become buyers or sellers.
- In a bullet point at the bottom of Price's piece, FanHouse's Jeff Fletcher says that the Phillies had one of their "top special assignment scouts" watching Ben Sheets' last start. As Ruben Amaro Jr. indicated today, the Phils are more likely to trade for a pitcher than an infielder.
Octavio Dotel Addresses Trade Rumors
Octavio Dotel would prefer not to hear about any trade rumors involving him unless he actually gets dealt, according to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Although the Marlins are rumored to be interested in the Pirates' closer, Dotel says "I just don't want to hear any of it, how I'm going here or there."
Given Dotel's contract and the Pirates' place in the standings, there has been speculation that the right-hander could be one of the more attractive bullpen trade chips on the market. The 36-year-old will earn $3.5MM this year, and has a $4.5MM club option ($500K buyout) for next season, though it becomes a mutual option if he's traded. With the Pirates already 23 games below .500 at the season's midpoint, Dotel discussed how the team's record affects his enthusiasm for playing in Pittsburgh:
"I like it here," Dotel said. "But I want to have more winning games. The past month, it wasn't that good for us…. I'll be honest with you: I don't want to be over here if we're going to play that way…. But if we're playing close games and fighting and trying hard like this week, yeah, of course, I want to be here. I love this town. I love this ballpark. It's good for me as a pitcher."
Kovacevic indicates that the Pirates aren't known to be shopping any of their relievers, but that could change in the coming weeks. Besides Dotel, D.J. Carrasco is another of the team's bullpen arms who signed a one-year contract and could appeal to a contender.
Marlins Inquired On Octavio Dotel
The Marlins have asked the Pirates about Octavio Dotel, according to Ed Price of AOL FanHouse. Marlins relievers have combined for a 4.66 ERA and though Dotel's 4.55 mark doesn't appear much better, he is a reliable arm who still strikes more than one batter out per inning (though he is walking a characteristically high number of hitters this year). Dotel has 17 saves, while the Marlins have blown 12.
The 37-41 Marlins trail the Braves by 8.5 games in the NL East. They opened the season with a $47MM payroll, even after they were prompted to raise their payroll, so adding Dotel's $3.25MM salary will be a consideration. A trade wouldn't necessarily mean a payroll increase, though; the Rangers and Giants showed this week that payroll-neutral deals are possible. The Pirates' $4.5MM option for 2011 becomes mutual if he is traded, so the Marlins would not have the rights to him after this season if they made a deal.
The Marlins have been looking for relievers for months and their search recently led them back to Armando Benitez. There's no indication that the Marlins are serious about acquiring Dotel, or even that they have decided to be buyers this summer. They and others teams considering relievers may pursue arms such as Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, Kevin Gregg, Matt Capps, D.J. Carrasco, Kerry Wood and Joakim Soria this month.
Coonelly: Fewer Trades For Pirates This Summer
This July's trading deadline will be the third for the Pirates' current management regime, and team president Frank Coonelly predicts it will be the least active yet. Coonelly told Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he doesn't expect the team to trade away veterans this summer, the way they moved players like Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, and Xavier Nady in 2008 and 2009.
One reason for such an approach is the fact that the Pirates just don't have that many appealing veteran players left on their roster. While the club probably wouldn't mind finding a taker for players like Akinori Iwamura (.178/.289/.258) or Octavio Dotel (5.40 ERA), their 2010 performances so far will make dealing them challenging, though Dotel has been more effective lately, as Tim pointed out earlier this week.
With no fire sale imminent, Coonelly even suggests it "could be the reverse" of the past two July 31st deadlines, hinting that the Pirates could be buyers rather than sellers. For a club currently sitting in the NL Central cellar, 15 games below .500 and 11.5 games out of first place, that would be a pretty shocking move.
The more likely scenario for the Pirates is letting young players like Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, Brad Lincoln, and eventually Pedro Alvarez continue to gain major league experience for the rest of the season. If the team makes a couple low-cost acquisitions this winter that work out a little better than Iwamura and Dotel have so far, there should be some optimism for 2011.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Octavio Dotel
On April 26th, Pirates GM Neal Huntington told MLBTR he felt that Octavio Dotel could provide a similar performance for similar dollars and contractual control as Matt Capps. That was the reasoning behind non-tendering Capps and signing Dotel to a one-year, $3.5MM deal with a club option for 2011.
On May 1st, Huntington's statement appeared silly. Dotel had a 10.61 ERA and three saves, while Capps boasted a 0.68 ERA and ten saves. However, the relievers' fortunes have reversed, as Dotel has a 1.93 ERA since May 1st and Capps is at 6.43. It's too early to make a final judgment on Huntington's decision, but Dotel is the same pitcher he's been for years. He'll rack up tons of strikeouts, too many walks, and too many home runs.
Dotel's club option is for $4.5MM with a $500K buyout. A $4MM net price isn't a bargain for another year of his services, but it's something the Pirates or perhaps another team will have to consider. But here's the catch, and it makes Dotel's contractual control different from that of Capps. Dotel's club option becomes a mutual option if traded. If Dotel continues pitching well, he could be dealt and decline his side of the option. He might do so in pursuit of a contract similar to the one he had with the White Sox – two years and $11MM. Another possibility: Dotel could be traded to a team that has the closer spot locked up, and then decline the option in pursuit of save chances in 2011.
Top Trade Chips: NL Central
Let's continue our series looking at each team's top trade chips with the NL Central…
- Astros: Teams can ask for Hunter Pence, but it's just not happening. 26-year-old catcher J.R. Towles and his five years of team control could be shopped with top prospect Jason Castro coming up behind him. If Houston falls way out of it, Roy Oswalt could be made available, but it would be a massive PR hit. He's owed $31MM through 2011 with a $16MM option ($2MM buyout) for 2012, and would have to approve any trade. Dealing him would signify the start of a full rebuilding effort.
- Brewers: Yovani Gallardo was never going to be moved in the first place, but his new contract extension all but guarantees it. Manny Parra seems to have fallen out of favor, but a lefty who can dial it up to the mid-90's will always have value on the trade market. He still has three years of arbitration eligibility ahead of him.
- Cardinals: The Cards dealt away most of their top prospects for Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa last year, so there's not much left to move. Triple-A catcher Bryan Anderson and Double-A outfielder Daryl Jones could be used in a trade since the big league team is pretty well set at those positions. Jones is more highly regarded of the two. Colby Rasmus is untouchable, obviously.
- Cubs: Josh Vitters, the third overall pick in 2007, watched his name pop up in trade rumors involving Jake Peavy last year. If Chicago is willing to eat some of the $26.5MM left on his contract, there would be interest in Kosuke Fukudome.
- Pirates: Neal Huntington has completely turned over the team's roster since taking over in September 2007, dealing away every notable veteran player. He did, however, build up a nice inventory of veteran relievers this offseason. Octavio Dotel, D.J. Carrasco, Brendan Donnelly, and Javier Lopez could all be used as trade fodder this summer.
- Reds: Cincinnati is clearly a team on the rise, but one young player they could make available is the blocked Yonder Alonso. The power hitting first baseman masquerading as a left fielder in Double-A has all six years of team control left, and is the best trade chip in the division.
Odds & Ends: Gagne, Stairs, Dotel
Thursday night linkage..
- Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN Radio talked to M's GM Jack Zduriencik, who declined to disclose how much money the club had left to spend this offseason. One baseball source told Drayer that the M's likely have "a little left, but not much."
- Scott Lauber of The News Journal tweets that Phillies GM Ruben Amaro was less than impressed after watching Eric Gagne throw yesterday, saying "He was okay." We first heard about Gagne's comeback back in December, when the 34-year-old said he would be open to pitching in the minors.
- Matt Stairs, who is still hoping to land a job at the age of 41, has dropped 31 pounds in order to get himself in game shape, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com. In 129 plate appearances last season, Stairs posted .194/.357/.379 with 5 HRs.
- Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette spoke to recently signed Octavio Dotel who told him that the Pirates were the only team to offer him the role of closer. Dotel says that he's not worried about being rusty after not closing since 2007.