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Shane Baz

Rays Reinstate Shane Baz, Option Ralph Garza Jr.

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The Rays announced a number of roster moves today, reinstating Shane Baz from the 60-day injured list, optioning Ralph Garza Jr. to Triple-A, and transferring Andrew Kittredge to the 60-day injured list, per Rays’ broadcaster Neil Solondz (via Twitter).

The Kittredge move opens a spot on the 40-man roster for Baz, but it was a foregone conclusion after the revelation that Kittredge needs Tommy John surgery. He’ll be out for the rest of this season and potentially all of next season as well.

Bittersweet as the moment may be, the Rays will be excited to get Baz back on the hill. Still just 22 years old, Baz burned through the minors last season in time to make three starts at the end of the regular campaign. He has been out so far this season after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow. The Rays believed in Baz enough to give him the start in game two of the American League Division Series.

He will make his debut start against the Twins. Theoretically (health provided), Baz should become a rotation staple alongside Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Corey Kluber, giving Tampa a more traditional rotation than they’re accustomed to in recent years.

As for Garza, the 28-year-old has made 11 appearances on the year for Tampa, logging 22 innings with a 3.27 ERA/4.64 FIP. Garza was claimed off waivers from the Red Sox, for whom he never made an appearance.

Big Hype Prospects: Lowe, Kwan, Kirby, Moreno, Baz

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This week, we check in two players making their debut, another on the cusp of return, and two others who have mixed results.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Josh Lowe, 24, OF, TBR (AAA)

125 PA, 5 HR, 4 SB, .291/.368/.527

Lowe began the season in the Majors where he struggled with strikeouts en route to a .188/.257/.344 triple-slash. Upon returning to Triple-A, Lowe immediately dealt damage with his bat. He blasted four home runs in his first 46 plate appearances, but they came at the cost of 21 strikeouts (45.7% K%). Since then, Lowe’s exploits at the plate have been less emphatic. He’s hitting .300/.380/.443 with seven doubles and one home run over 79 plate appearances. The good news – and the reason for this update – is his strikeout rate has steadily declined. He’s done particularly well over his last 12 games, striking out just once every five plate appearances.

Although Lowe hasn’t socked many home runs lately, he’s still hitting plenty of doubles. The improvements to his strikeout and walk rates suggest he’s ready to return to the Majors. The Rays don’t have an odd man out among their position players. However, they’re currently carrying 14 pitchers and will need to trim down to 13 on June 19. Unless Brandon Lowe or Wander Franco make a miraculous recovery from their injuries, Lowe will be the most impactful position player already on the 40-man roster.

Steven Kwan, 24, OF, CLE (MLB)

171 PA, 1 HR, 4 SB, .271/.368/.368

Kwan was a revelation during the first week of the season. He has a preternatural ability to avoid missing pitches. His 2.1 percent swinging strike rate not only leads the league, it leads all player seasons since Marco Scutaro’s heyday. Unfortunately, all strengths are also weaknesses. In Kwan’s case, he rarely makes hard contact. Among qualified hitters, he ranks fifth-worst in hard contact rate, sixth-worst in average exit velocity, and second-worst in max exit velocity. Nicky Lopez, Myles Straw, and Tony Kemp are the most-similar hitters by contact quality. Kwan has recently dropped to the bottom of the Guardians lineup amid all these softly-hit baseballs.

If there’s a silver lining, it’s that his bat-to-ball skills remain elite, even if the result of that contact isn’t anything special. He has a 12.3 percent walk rate compared to a seven percent strikeout rate. To put this in context, I sorted all player seasons of 150 or more plate appearances over the last decade by walk rate minus strikeout rate. Thus far, Kwan’s debut ranks seventh-best. Appearing ahead of him are Yandy Diaz (2022), Juan Soto (2020, 2021), Joey Votto (2017), Jose Ramirez (2022), and Tommy La Stella (2020). While most of the players on this list are superstar sluggers, a few names like Luis Arraez and Eric Sogard are also present. Kwan seemingly fits in this tier of player.

George Kirby, 24, SP, SEA (MLB)

32 IP, 3.38 ERA, 8.72 K/9, 0.84 BB/9

On the surface, Kirby is having a fantastic debut. After skipping Triple-A entirely, he’s contributing above average outings to a Mariners club desperate to recapture their 2021 swagger. There are some causes for concern, namely the bluish hue of his Statcast metrics. Kirby has been plagued by loud contact. He hasn’t yet felt the sting – at least not in any disastrous way, but it’s only a matter of time. To truly succeed in the Majors, he’ll need to work on quality of contact.

The good news is he has multiple tools at his disposal. Presently, he’s far too predictable when it comes to attacking the strike zone. A stint in Triple-A might have helped him to learn how to work outside of the zone effectively. Now, he’ll have to learn on the fly – though it isn’t too hard of a lesson. You’ve undoubtedly heard someone say pitching is a game of chess. In this case, Kirby telegraphs his moves which helps opponents to employ stunning counters (hard contact). As he matures, Kirby will learn to use opponents’ expectations against them.

Gabriel Moreno, 22, C, TOR (AAA)

150 PA, 1 HR, 3 SB, .324/.380/.404

Moreno is expected to join the Blue Jays lineup tonight and will instantly become the best defensive catcher on the roster. While they both have plenty of bat for the position, neither Alejandro Kirk nor Zack Collins is well-regarded defensively. Danny Jansen, who is considered a good defender, is currently sidelined with a finger injury.

Moreno began to turn heads during 2020 then parlayed his growth into an explosive 2021 when he was on the field. Unfortunately, his season ended after just 159 plate appearances. He’s nearly matched that total this year. Although he’s continued to provide above average offense, his power has wilted. In addition to the one lonesome home run, he’s hit only eight doubles.

Shane Baz, 23, SP, TBR (AAA)

13 IP, 1.38 ERA, 13.85 K/9, 2.77 BB/9

Baz, the final piece of the Chris Archer haul, made his big league debut last season. He flashed a lightning fastball and two wipeout breaking balls. An elbow injury slowed his 2022 debut. He’s made four rehab appearances in Triple-A and has been declared ready. He is scheduled to pitch on Saturday.

Although I don’t have specific velocity readings from his outings, the results seemingly speak for themselves. Baz recorded 20 strikeouts against just eight hits, four walks, and a hit batter. His most recent appearance came against a weak Brewers affiliate. He faced 18 batters and struck out 10. To preserve his health, he’ll likely face 20 or fewer batters in his upcoming outings.

Five More

MJ Melendez (23): The return of Salvador Perez has not slowed Melendez. He’s now regularly batting fifth in the lineup while playing catcher, right field, or designated hitter. Melendez has hit a healthy .271/.340/.518 with five home runs over his last 94 plate appearances.

Juan Yepez (24): Called up when the Cardinals were dealing with a stack of injuries, Yepez has cooled in recent weeks. Since May 24, he’s batting .186/.229/.256 in 48 plate appearances. Dylan Carlson’s return could result in fewer opportunities for Yepez.

Nolan Gorman (22): Despite hitting well, Gorman has fallen into a part-time role. His .288/.362/.519 line in 58 plate appearances is partly overshadowed by a 34.5 percent strikeout rate. That’s in line with his performance in Triple-A. When he does connect, he makes loud contact.

Noelvi Marte (20): Briefly considered a Julio Rodriguez-caliber international prospect, scouts have recently taken to describing Marte in more ordinary terms. Apparently, he reached physical maturity ahead of his peers. While he still seems destined to reach the Majors in short order, a superstar ceiling might prove difficult to achieve.

Roansy Contreras (22): Contreras’s 24-batter outing on June 4 was his first in the Majors in which he faced more than 20 batters. Concerns remain about the lack of changeup, but Contreras gives every appearance of being a reliable Major League contributor. Like many young pitchers, he’s allowed more hard contact than is ideal.

Rays Acquire Javy Guerra From Padres

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The Rays have acquired right-hander Javy Guerra from the Padres for cash considerations.  Guerra was designated for assignment by San Diego earlier this week.  The Rays moved Shane Baz to the 60-day injured list to create room on the 40-man roster, and Rays broadcaster Neil Solondz tweets that a move will be made to accommodate Guerra on the active roster when he reports.

Guerra has pitched 27 2/3 Major League innings over the last three-plus seasons, including two innings of work in the Padres’ 10-5 win over the Diamondbacks on April 10.  Not to be confused with the other Javy Guerra (a longtime veteran reliever), the Rays’ new Guerra is a former top-100 shortstop prospect who converted to pitching in 2019.  Injuries have hampered Guerra’s progress, and also some roster constrictions — since he is out of options, the Padres weren’t able to send him to the minors without putting him through DFA waivers.

San Diego finally opted to designate Guerra, and given how often the Padres and Rays have linked up on trades in recent years, it probably isn’t surprising that Tampa Bay emerged as a suitor for Guerra’s services.  Guerra’s fastball has routinely sat in the high-90s and even hit the 100mph threshold, so it will be intriguing to see if the Rays’ vaunted pitching development system can harness Guerra’s potential.

Baz underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery on March 21, and was expected to be shut down from throwing for 2-3 weeks.  The move to the 60-day IL will keep Baz out of action until June, though such an absence was probably necessary for ramp-up purposes considering how much of Spring Training Baz missed.  The star prospect made his MLB debut last season, making three starts in the regular season and one more in the playoffs.

Shane Baz Shut Down 2-3 Weeks After Undergoing Arthroscopic Elbow Surgery

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The Rays announced this afternoon that top pitching prospect Shane Baz underwent arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies from his pitching elbow. He’s expected to resume throwing in 2-3 weeks (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times).

Baz debuted in the majors last September, making his first three starts down the stretch. He punched out 18 hitters in 13 1/3 innings during that brief look, averaging north of 97 MPH on his heater. Tampa Bay carried Baz on their postseason roster, giving him the start in Game 2 of their Division Series against the Red Sox. That outing didn’t go as hoped, but there’s little question the righty had emerged as a key piece of the Rays’ pitching plans — both in the near and long term.

This offseason, Baseball America named Baz the league’s eighth-most promising prospect. He checked in second among pitchers in that ranking, making the former first-rounder one of the top young arms in the game. It doesn’t seem there’s any reason for long-term concern about today’s procedure, although it’ll almost certainly force him to begin the season on the injured list.

Opening Day is seventeen days from now. Given the club’s announced timetable, it’s possible Baz will begin throwing before regular season action gets underway, but he’ll need some time to build strength back up. He may require some time in the minors on a rehab assignment as well.

With Baz out of the season-opening rotation mix, Tampa Bay looks likely to rely on some combination of Shane McClanahan, Corey Kluber, Luis Patiño, Ryan Yarbrough, Josh Fleming and Drew Rasmussen to start games over the first few weeks. Tampa Bay is among the league’s most flexible teams with regards to managing a pitching staff, but the loss of a high-octane arm like Baz is a disappointing development for a team competing in an AL East that again looks as if it’ll be a four-team fight.

Rays Promote Shane Baz

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Sept. 20: The Rays have formally selected Baz’s contract and created space on the 40-man roster by transferring Archer from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL. That will formally end the season for Archer, who is battling renewed discomfort in his problematic hip. Tampa Bay opened a spot on the 28-man roster for Baz by placing righty Andrew Kittredge on the 10-day IL due to tightness in his neck.

Sept. 18: Top Rays prospect Shane Baz will make his Major League debut on Monday against the Blue Jays, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). Baz was the third piece acquired along with Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow from the Pirates in the now infamous Chris Archer trade. The 22-year-old’s stock has risen since the trade, though the former first rounder has always shown tremendous promise.

In the Tampa development engine, he has become a refined starting prospect at the top of an impressive farm system. He was the Rays’ top prospect on Baseball America’s midseason report, and he’s the top prospect by MLB.com’s rendering as well. Baz won a silver medal alongside current Ray David Robertson while with Team USA at the Olympics in Japan.

He is not currently on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding roster move will be necessary. While Baz isn’t technically postseason-eligible right now, he could theoretically be added to the postseason roster through a petition to the Commissioner’s office as an injury replacement. That process has often been exploited in the past, and the Rays have shown a willingness to throw young hurlers into the postseason fire (see McClanahan, Shane).

Besides, while the Rays own the best record in the American League, they have the most dynamic (read: unpredictable) pitching staff. Practically speaking, it’s entirely unclear who might get the ball in a potential opening round playoff series, so there is at least a possibility that Baz could pitch his way onto the playoff roster. Because playoff roster changes cannot be made mid-series, the only opening he’d likely snag would be as a starter. Best case, he could make maybe three starts before the year is out — if the Rays view this promotion as an actual audition for playoff baseball.

The prospect of Baz as a playoff weapon isn’t all that far-fetched when you consider his dominance in the upper levels of the minors this season. He made seven starts in Double-A with a 2.84 ERA, striking out 49 in 32 2/3 innings. After earning a rapid promotion to Triple-A, Baz went back to work with a 1.76 ERA over 10 starts totaling 46 innings with a 64-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Those eye-popping numbers certainly must make the Rays consider giving him an opportunity to help the parent club right now.

The rookie southpaw McClanahan is the only sure thing to be in the playoff rotation right now, and he’s currently on the injured list. Drew Rasmussen is making a strong push to be a postseason starter as well, having not allowed more than one earned run in any of his past six starts since joining the rotation. Ryan Yarbrough, Michael Wacha, and Luis Patino round out the rotation for now, though the Rays are likely to use at least one rotation spot (and maybe more) for bullpen days come the postseason.

Injury Notes: Cronenworth, Cruz, Baz, Odorizzi

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After suffering a small fracture in his left ring finger after being hit by a Julio Urias pitch on September 10, Jake Cronenworth’s status was in question, though the Padres were holding off putting Cronenworth on the injured list.  It now looks like the utilityman will return this week for the Padres’ critical series with the Cardinals, San Diego manager Jayce Tingler told The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and other reporters.  The versatile Cronenworth has mostly played second base and shortstop this season, and Tingler said that Cronenworth could see action at both positions as well as some first base time.

Between an All-Star appearance this season and a second-place finish in the 2020 NL Rookie Of The Year vote, Cronenworth has emerged as a big force in San Diego’s lineup.  Beyond just his multi-positional ability, the 27-year-old has also batted .274/.350/.369 with 24 homers in his first 773 plate appearances at the MLB level, and this season took another step forward by hitting left-handed pitching almost as well as he has performed against right-handers.  Though Cronenworth (like pretty many of the Padres) had been in a hitting slump over the last few weeks, he had collected two hits in each of the three games prior to his injury.

More injury updates from around baseball….

  • Nelson Cruz left tonight’s game due to a right forearm contusion after being hit by a Tyler Alexander pitch.  X-rays were negative on Cruz, and Rays manager Kevin Cash told The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin (Twitter link) and other reporters that the slugger should be “fully available” for tomorrow’s game against the Tigers.  That said, Cruz might not play just for precautionary reasons and because Cash said Cruz might have been due for an off-day even before the minor injury.  After being acquired in a July trade with the Twins, Cruz got off to a slow start in Tampa, but has started to heat up again over the last couple of weeks.
  • After Shane Baz was scratched from a Triple-A start today, there was speculation that the Rays might give the star pitching prospect his big league debut during this series against Detroit.  However, reporter Patrick Kinas tweets that Baz was actually scratched due to back spasms, though the issue might only sideline Baz for a few days.  Baz has only continued to impress since making his Triple-A debut earlier this season, as the right-hander has a 1.76 ERA and a very impressive strikeout (36%) and walk (6.2%) rates over 46 innings with the Durham Bulls.  MLB Pipeline ranks Baz as the 20th-best prospect in the game, and he stands out as a very intriguing x-factor of a weapon for the Rays heading into the playoffs.
  • The Astros placed Jake Odorizzi on the 10-day injured list earlier this week due to a foot injury, and Odorizzi more directly described the issue to reporters (including The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome) as “a mid-foot sprain.”  The injury was caused by a “flukey” bad step that forced Odorizzi out of Monday’s game in the second inning.  Fortunately, Odorizzi didn’t think the problem was serious, and the right-hander believes he’ll be able to return from the IL when first eligible on September 24.

Rays To Acquire Shane Baz As PTBNL In Chris Archer Trade

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The Pirates have agreed to send top pitching prospect Shane Baz to the Rays as the player to be named later in last month’s Chris Archer blockbuster, reports John Dreker of PiratesProspects.com (via Twitter). That’ll make Tampa Bay’s total haul for Archer an impressive combination of Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow and Baz, who was the Pirates’ first-round selection in the 2017 draft.

Shane Baz | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Still just 19 years of age, Baz was among the top-ranked pitching prospects in the 2017 draft and signed with the Pirates for a $4.1MM bonus that was about $70K over his slot value at the time. At the time of the draft, Baz was the top prospect from the state of Texas and drew praise for a plus heater that could reach 98 mph as well as potential plus offerings in his cutter, slider and curveball. While No. 2 overall pick Hunter Greene was the top pitching prospect in the draft, Baseball America wrote in ’17 that Baz “has the ingredients to surpass Greene going forward due to his more potent breaking pitches.”

Baz is clearly still years away from impacting the Rays at the big league level. He spent his 2017 debut season pitching for the Pirates’ Rookie-level affiliate in the Gulf Coast League before moving to the Rookie-level Appalachian League in 2018. To this point, Baz has demonstrated the ability to miss bats but also some shaky control — as one might expect for a raw high school power pitcher making the transition to pro ball. Through 45 1/3 innings this season, Baz has logged a 3.97 ERA with 10.7 K/9 against 4.6 BB/9 with a whopping 62 percent ground-ball rate.

While Baz is as long-term a piece as the Rays could have received in their return for Archer, he adds another elite prospect to a rapidly improving Rays system. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com ranked Baz as the game’s No. 95 prospect on their recent midseason update, while Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs pegged him 110th overall. Baz will need to further refine his control and gain experience against more advanced competition, but he’s already a high-ceiling arm who could quickly improve his stock with improved control and/or a strong showing when he ultimately reaches full-season ball.

Chris Archer | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Archer has gotten off to a shaky start for the Pirates since being traded, though he’s made all of two appearances to date. The inclusion of Baz undoubtedly stings for general manager Neal Huntington and his staff, who have to be disheartened to see the Cardinals surging back into the mix with a 6-game win streak and an overall 8-2 showing in their past 10 contests. Be that as it may, however, the Pirates’ acquisition of Archer was as much about the 2019 season and beyond as it was their pursuit of a Wild Card berth or a more unlikely NL Central crown in 2018. Archer gives the club an affordable mid-rotation option at worst and a potential front-of-the-rotation piece at best, and he comes with a contract that even the cost-conscious Pirates can afford for three years beyond the current season.

As was the case with the Cubs’ acquisition of Jose Quintana in 2017, that affordable contract proved immensely valuable on the trade market and netted a premium package of talent, even neither pitcher’s recent baseline run-prevention numbers were especially impressive. The Archer trade, like the Quintana trade before it, further serves as another data point that more traditional numbers (i.e. ERA) aren’t nearly as influential when evaluating players in this type of trade as they once were. For the Bucs, the allure of Archer’s K/BB numbers, his superior fielding-independent metrics and the fact that he can be affordably teamed with Jameson Taillon atop the rotation for years to come were enough to part with a package of three high-quality pieces — two of whom (Meadows and Glasnow) are able to immediately contribute to the Rays.

Pirates Sign First-Rounder Shane Baz

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FRIDAY: Pittsburgh has announced the signing. Baz gets $4.1MM, just over the slot value, per Stephen Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (via Twitter).

WEDNESDAY: The Pirates and No. 12 overall pick Shane Baz have agreed to terms, reports Mark Berman of Houston’s FOX 26 (Twitter links). Baz, a Houston-area native, tells Berman that the Pirates made an offer that he “can’t pass up,” calling it a “tough decision” to forgo his commitment to Texas Christian University.

Terms of the deal have yet to be reported, though Baz’s No. 12 slot comes with an assigned value of $4,032,000. The Pirates have a bonus pool of $10,135,900 and can go over that assigned slot value to sign Baz if they save money on other picks further down the draft board.

Baz ranked No. 11 on the pre-draft rankings of ESPN’s Keith Law, Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Baseball America. Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis of MLB.com pegged him as the draft’s No. 12 prospect. Considered the top prospect in the state of Texas, Baz draws praise for his mid-90s fastball that has already reached 98 mph. He also draws potential plus grades on a cutter, slider and curveball, with each of the listed scouting reports offering varying levels of praise. Baseball America, in particular, suggests that his secondary offerings create a lofty ceiling, writing that Baz “has the ingredients to surpass [Hunter] Greene going forward due to his more potent breaking pitches.”

The 6’3″, 190-pound Baz would’ve played both third base and pitched had he attended TCU — both BA and MLB.com reference his plus raw power — but he’ll focus on pitching now that he’s embarking on his pro career. He’s one of the younger prospects in the top echelon of the draft class, as he has yet to turn 18 years of age. Most of the above-linked reports agree that Baz still needs to refine his command and doesn’t yet feature enough deception in his delivery, though there’s potential for him to develop into a front-line starter down the road. He becomes the first of this year’s first-round draftees to agree to terms.

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