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Shawn Dubin

Astros Promote Shawn Dubin, Option Brandon Bielak

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The Astros announced a pair of roster moves earlier today, recalling right-hander Shawn Dubin from Triple-A while optioning fellow righty Brandon Bielak to Triple-A. As noted by the Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara, Dubin told reporters that he was joining the club as a reliever.

That comes as little surprise, considering comments from manager Dusty Baker in recent weeks indicating the club didn’t consider a six-man rotation sustainable given the hits the club has taken to its starting depth. This move appears to leave Bielak as the odd man out as Houston reverts to a five-man rotation. While Bielak had pitched to a roughly league average 4.37 ERA in 47 1/3 innings since his call-up to the big leagues at the beginning of May, the move comes as little surprise considering Bielak’s significant struggles since the calendar flipped to June.

Since the beginning of the month Bielak has been shelled for 13 runs (12 earned) in just 16 1/3 innings, leaving him with a 6.61 ERA and a whopping 1.107 OPS against over his past three starts. Struggles with command seem to be the root of Bielak’s troubles, as he’s allowed six walks, four home runs, and hit a batter over that timeframe while recording just nine strikeouts.

Bielak’s woes coincide with what has proved to be a difficult stretch for the Astros. Houston has posted a 4-9 record over the last thirteen games, leaving the club with a 39-33 record that places them third in the AL West, 5.5 games behind the Rangers for the division lead. As the club attempts to right the ship, they’ll trot out a starting five of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, J.P. France, and Ronel Blanco.

Valdez, Javier, and Brown, of course, starting the season in the club’s rotation and have formed the backbone of a starting staff that ranks 2nd in the majors with a 3.30 ERA in spite of injuries to Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr. and Jose Urquidy. France has played a major role in the rotation maintaining that solid performance, with a 3.42 ERA in 47 1/3 innings for the big league club since making his MLB debut earlier this season.

Blanco is perhaps even more surprising, as the 29-year-old entered the rotation at the beginning of June after struggling badly in his major league debut last season (7.11 ERA in seven appearances) and posting middling numbers as a member of the Houston bullpen earlier this year, with a 4.50 ERA in 12 innings. Since returning to the big leagues as a starter, though, Blanco has recorded two solid outings against solid offenses in Toronto and Anaheim, posting a 3.18 ERA in 11 1/3 innings of work. While Blanco’s 13% walk rate leaves reason for concern going forward, the Astros clearly feel secure enough with his performance to hand him the keys to a rotation spot over Bielak.

Replacing Bielak on the active roster is Dubin, whose first appearance with the big league club will constitute his big league debut. It’s been a long path to the majors for Dubin, who arrived in the Astros organization after they selected him in the 13th round of the 2018 draft. While he managed to post solid numbers in the minors from 2019 to 2021, Dubin has struggled in more recent seasons, with his 4.78 ERA in 58 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level in 2022 ballooning to a figure of 7.96 in 26 innings while repeating the level this season.

Despite those worrisome results, Dubin figures to be an asset to the club’s bullpen while he’s on the roster thanks to his ability to pitch multiple innings. Of his nine appearances at Triple-A this season, Dubin has recorded at least six outs in seven of them. He’ll likely provide long relief for a bullpen that has recently relief on Seth Martinez for multi-inning outings.

Astros Acquire Nick Allgeyer From Phillies

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The Astros acquired minor league lefty Nick Allgeyer from the Phillies in exchange for cash considerations this afternoon, as reflected on the MLB.com transaction tracker. He’ll report to Houston’s top affiliate in Sugar Land.

Initially selected by the Blue Jays in the 12th round of the 2018 draft, Allgeyer pitched his way to the upper levels of the Toronto system. He earned a cup of coffee at the big league level in 2021, tossing one inning of scoreless relief. The Jays ran him through outright waivers quickly thereafter, however, and he hasn’t made it back to the majors since that point.

For the past two-plus years, the University of Iowa product has mostly pitched in Triple-A. He’s worked in a swing role, starting 36 of 61 appearances. Over 202 1/3 Triple-A frames, Allgeyer carries a 5.34 ERA with a slightly below-average 20.9% strikeout rate and an elevated 11% walk percentage. Allgeyer started four games with the Phils’ top affiliate after signing a minor league contract over the winter. He’s struck out 15 and walked six in 12 innings of six-run ball while keeping the ball on the ground at a solid 48.3% clip.

Allgeyer adds some upper level rotation help to an organization whose starting pitching depth is being tested. Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. are all on the injured list. Garcia is done for the year after today’s announcement that he’ll undergo Tommy John surgery. That has pushed Brandon Bielak and J.P. France to the MLB rotation, while some of Houston’s other depth starters are battling injuries of their own.

Righty Shawn Dubin was placed on the minor league injured list today. Former top prospect Forrest Whitley is dealing with minor soreness near his throwing shoulder and will take a day or two off throwing, reports Brian McTaggart of MLB.com (Twitter link). Both Dubin and Whitley are on the 40-man roster, though neither has yet pitched in the majors.

The Astros’ Inexperienced Rotation Depth

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An elite rotation has been one of the key features of the Astros’ run of success in recent years. Justin Verlander headlined the staff for the past four-plus seasons while the club saw the likes of Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and José Urquidy step up as player development success stories.

Even after Verlander’s departure, Houston has one of the stronger top-of-the-rotation groups in the sport. Valdez is a borderline Cy Young contender. Javier misses bats at an elite rate and just secured a $64MM contract extension. Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. have each shown #2/3 starter capabilities in recent years. Urquidy isn’t as high-octane but he’s a perfectly solid back-end starter with excellent control. Just behind that group is Hunter Brown, arguably one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects who allowed only two runs in his first 20 2/3 MLB innings late last season.

It’s a group with immense upside, although the injury bug has already hit before Opening Day. McCullers won’t be ready for the start of the season thanks to a muscle strain in his throwing arm and, as of yesterday, had still not been cleared to begin playing catch (relayed by Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Even if there doesn’t prove to be a long-term concern, the Astros will surely be without McCullers for a little while in the early going. That, in itself, might not be a huge issue considering Brown can step into the vacated rotation spot. Yet one more injury could start to test Houston’s depth, forcing them to tap into a group of mostly unproven hurlers from the upper minors. Let’s look through some of the depth options whom manager Dusty Baker could need to rely upon if anyone else from his top five goes down.

J.P. France

Despite turning 28 within a week of Opening Day, France has zero MLB experience. The club thought highly enough of him to add him to the 40-man roster in November to ensure they didn’t lose him in the Rule 5 draft, however. The 6’0″ righty started 15 of 34 outings with Triple-A Sugar Land last season, working to a 3.90 ERA with a strong 28.3% strikeout percentage but a concerning 10.6% walk rate in 110 2/3 innings. Baseball America slotted him as the organization’s #21 prospect this winter, praising his deceptive delivery and a five-pitch mix of mostly average stuff but raising questions about the consistency of his strike-throwing.

Forrest Whitley

Once regarded by many as the sport’s most talented pitching prospect, Whitley has seen his stock plummet since he reached Double-A as a 20-year-old five seasons back. He’s now 25 and still hasn’t gotten to the big leagues, though the Astros have kept him on the 40-man roster over the past two seasons. He underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2021 and lost a good chunk of the last couple years rehabbing. Whitley returned for ten outings in Sugar Land, serving up a 7.09 ERA while walking almost 16% of opposing hitters in 33 innings.

It’s not uncommon for pitchers to struggle with their control in their immediate returns after a Tommy John rehab, but the clock is ticking for Whitley to establish any kind of role on the Houston staff. He currently has one minor league option year remaining. While the Astros could perhaps petition for a fourth option next offseason in light of Whitley’s injury and a 2018 suspension for a violation of the minor league drug of abuse policy, it’s worth wondering whether they’d hold him on the 40-man roster for another winter if he doesn’t at least take a step forward in Triple-A. Baseball America now considers him the #28 prospect in the Houston system.

Shawn Dubin

Added to the 40-man roster over the 2021-22 offseason, Durbin spent all of last year on optional assignment to Sugar Land. He lost some time to a forearm strain and worked in a hybrid role when he took the mound, starting only 12 of 23 outings. Over 58 1/3 frames, he posted a 4.78 ERA with an excellent 32.1% strikeout rate but an untenable 12.9% walk rate. Barring a major step forward with his control, he’d figure to be more of a bullpen option for the big league club. BA slotted him 25th in the organizational prospect list, projecting him as a multi-inning reliever.

Brandon Bielak

Unlike the three pitchers above him on this list, Bielak has some MLB experience. He’s appeared in 45 games over the past three seasons but started just eight, none of which came last year. Soon to be 27, the 6’2″ righty has a 5.15 ERA over 94 1/3 career big league frames. He continued to work mostly as a starter in Triple-A, opening 14 of his 23 appearances last year. In 88 2/3 innings there, he put up a strong 3.15 ERA but with more middling strikeout and walk numbers (22.2% and 11.1%, respectively). Bielak has held a 40-man roster spot since the summer of 2020 and has one option year remaining.

Bryan Garcia

Signed to a minor league contract with a non-roster Spring Training invitation, Garcia had been a reliever for his entire career until the second half of last season. The Tigers stretched him out as a starter in Triple-A in the middle of July. Garcia made 11 starts for their top affiliate in Toledo and took the ball four times at the big league level. While he only allowed eight runs in 20 1/3 MLB innings, he had a pedestrian 17:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Detroit cut him loose at season’s end, sending him to minor league free agency after he went unclaimed on waivers.

Misael Tamarez/Jaime Melendez/Jayden Murray

Each of this group logged some upper minors work last season, mostly in Double-A. They’ve all garnered fairly recent consideration in the back half of the Astros’ top 30 organizational prospects but none is seen as an obvious rotation piece for 2023. Any of the trio could pitch their way into consideration at some point but they all figure to begin the year in the minors, particularly since none has yet claimed a spot on the 40-man roster.

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It isn’t a group of depth starters with much big league experience. While that might not be a pressing concern out of the gate, it’s virtually unheard of for a club to navigate a 162-game schedule reliant upon only five or six starters. Between McCullers’ injury and perhaps a desire to keep an eye on Brown’s workload — he threw 126 1/3 innings last season between Triple-A and the big leagues — it stands to reason the front office could still look into an addition or two.

Players like Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy and Michael Pineda remain unsigned and look like minor league deal candidates at this stage of the offseason. Bringing in someone from that group or scouring the waiver wire for help would make sense for first-year general manager Dana Brown, who has spoken a few times about his desire to stockpile as much rotation depth as possible. The Astros have enough impact talent at the top of the staff they don’t need any splashy acquisitions but there’s plenty of room to augment the group in the upper minors with a veteran.

Astros Select Jeremy Pena, Three Others

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The Astros announced they’ve selected infielders Jeremy Peña and Joe Perez, right-hander Shawn Dubin and left-hander Jonathan Bermudez to the 40-man roster. Infielder Freudis Nova has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Sugar Land, while Houston lost southpaw Kent Emanuel on waivers to Philadelphia. Houston’s 40-man roster is full, so they’ll need to make another move once their re-signing of Justin Verlander becomes official.

Peña is the most notable of the group, as he’s regarded by both FanGraphs and Baseball America as one of the top two prospects in the Houston system. Originally a third-round pick out of the University of Maine in 2018, Peña has handily outperformed that draft status as a professional. Always regarded as a high-end defensive infielder, the right-handed hitter has offered quite a bit more than expected at the plate over the past few seasons. He’s been an above-average hitter at every minor league stop by measure of wRC+.

While Peña’s still regarded as a glove-first prospect, his plate discipline and passable raw power should give him a chance to be an everyday shortstop in the future. The 23-year-old missed most of this past season recovering from wrist surgery but returned late in the year to hit .287/.346/.598 with ten homers over 133 plate appearances with Sugar Land. That came with an elevated 26.3% strikeout rate, and the Houston front office may want to give him a little more time at the minors’ top level before he makes his big league debut.

Still, Peña was a lock to be protected from the Rule 5, and it seems he’ll be in the majors before too long. With Carlos Correa potentially departing in free agency, the Astros have to weigh how confident they are in Peña’s ability to assume a key role on a contending club in 2022. The front office’s confidence in the talented youngster could well impact how hard they try to retain or replace Correa this offseason.

Perez was a second-round pick out of a Florida high school in 2017. Primarily a third baseman, he draws praise for his power and arm strength but has some questions about his bat-to-ball skills. The 22-year-old mashed over 109 plate appearances with High-A Asheville this year. He hit at an average .267/.322/.420 clip with eight homers and a 26.1% strikeout rate over 307 plate appearances upon a promotion to Double-A Corpus Christi. BA placed the right-handed hitter sixth in the Astros’ system midseason.

Dubin, 26, was a 13th-rounder in 2018 out of Georgetown College in Kentucky. The right-hander has posted strong numbers in a swing capacity over his pro career, topping out at Sugar Land this past season. BA credits him with a low-mid 90s fastball and plus slider, in addition to a fringe-average curveball and changeup. BA suggests he has a chance to stick as a starter, while FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote that he’s likelier to end up in relief. Either way, Dubin’s bat-missing abilities should get him a major league look relatively soon. He punched out 35.4% of opponents against a 9.7% walk rate in 49 2/3 Triple-A innings this year, working to a 3.44 ERA in the process.

Bermudez, meanwhile, was a 23rd-rounder out of Southeastern University in that same 2018 draft. The 26-year-old southpaw has never appeared on an organizational ranking at FanGraphs or BA, but he’s the owner of a strong minor league resume. He split the 2021 campaign between the minors’ top two levels, working to a 3.24 ERA over 111 innings. Bermudez punched out a lofty 31.9% of batters faced while walking just 7.4%, setting himself up for a potential big league debut in 2022.

Nova was formerly one of the top prospects in the organization as well. He’s struggled with underperformance and injuries in recent seasons, and he underwent surgery to repair an ACL tear in September. The 21-year-old will remain in the organization and hope to work his way back onto the 40-man roster once he’s healthy.

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