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Shed Long

Shed Long Undergoes Surgery On Right Tibia

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The Mariners announced Monday that second baseman Shed Long underwent a “closed reduction intermedullary fixation of his right tibia on Sept. 22 to repair a stress fracture in his right shin.” He’s expected to be able to participate in Spring Training games next year, per the club.

Originally a Reds draftee — 12th round, 2013 — Long rose through the ranks to become one of Cincinnati’s more promising prospects in 2018. The Reds sent Long and a Competitive Balance Round A selection to the Yankees in exchange for Sonny Gray, however, and the Yankees immediately flipped Long to the Mariners for outfield prospect Josh Stowers in what effectively amounted to a three-team swap.

Long, who turned 25 last month, made his big league debut with the Mariners in 2019 and got out to an impressive start, hitting .263/.333/.454 with five homers, a dozen doubles, a triple and three steals through 168 trips to the plate as a rookie. He opened the 2020 season as the everyday option at second base but floundered after a decent start to the season, posting a .451 OPS in his final 24 games.

Overall, through 296 career plate appearances, Long is a .223/.294/.383 hitter. He’s walked in nine percent of his plate appearances but saw his strikeout rate climb from 23.8 percent as a rookie to 29.8 percent in 2020. While Long’s bat-to-ball skills and overall offensive output trended in the wrong direction this year, though, his glovework seemingly ticked up. Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average all agree that Long’s defense at second base improved markedly this season.

Long wouldn’t blame his 2020 struggles on the stress fracture, but both he and Mariners skipper Scott Servais said earlier this month that it’s an injury which had plagued him throughout the season (link via MLB.com’s Greg Johns). Asked whether he debated shutting down earlier than he did, Long told Johns and other reporters: “You tell any person in America or anywhere for that matter that they’re going to be the starting second baseman for any Major League team, that’s not an opportunity that’s always presented to you. No matter what, I’m trying to make the most of this opportunity.”

It’s an admirable take, and Long described himself as a “high pain-tolerance guy.” That pain grew too considerable when he fouled a ball into the area of the stress fracture, however. He’ll now take the offseason to rehab and prep for what will be a more crowded competition at second base in 2020. The Mariners acquired Ty France in the trade that sent Austin Nola to the Padres, and versatile Dylan Moore surely piqued the club’s interest with a big season of his own.

Long has experience in the outfield, logging 130 innings in left field with the Mariners since his debut, and he’s tallied eight innings at third base as well. Each of Long, France and Moore have a minor league option remaining after this season (multiple, in Moore’s case), which would allow the Mariners to get someone regular work in Tacoma if playing time in the big leagues is too hard to come by. If nothing else, that level of depth is a welcome “problem” to consider as Seattle continues to take its next steps in emerging from a rebuilding process.

West Notes: Diamondbacks, Marte, Marte, Mariners, Lewis, Kikuchi

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The Arizona Diamondbacks have put together one of the more intriguing rosters as we approach spring camp, and they’ve done so while maintaining flexibility. The Starling Marte acquisition, for instance, secures center field as GM Mike Hazen had hoped – secondarily allowing star Ketel Marte to stay at second base –  but that doesn’t mean Ketel’s days in center are done. The Martes could very well play side-by-side in the outfield against tough lefties while David Peralta or Kole Calhoun gets a breather, writes MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert. Most of Arizona’s bench hits from the left side, though Ildemaro Vargas, Domingo Leyba, and Andy Young can all hit righty, making them candidates to spell Marte at second when he vacates. Let’s jump the the Junior Circuit to check in on the Mariners…

  • Opportunity abounds in the Mariners outfield now that Mitch Haniger is set to miss opening day. With plenty of internal candidates to choose from, there’s no need for a reactionary signing in Seattle, though Executive VP and GM Jerry Dipoto never rules anything out. For now, Kyle Lewis has the inside track on left field, writes MLB.com’s Greg Johns. Lewis put together a mighty 75 plate appearances at the end of 2019 to stake his claim to the grass in 2020. The Haniger injury may mean more consistent at-bats for Mallex Smith in the early going, but the real growth opportunity exists for youngsters like Braden Bishop and Jake Fraley. It’s unclear how much time they’ll have to put their stamp on 2020, but the Mariners are likely to temper their expectations for Haniger’s return and enjoy the opportunity to preview Bishop and/or Fraley in the outfield. The Mariners also recently brought Eric Filia into their spring mix, who could earn a spot, while infielders Shed Long, Dee Gordon, Tim Lopes and Aaron Nola can capably shag fly balls as well.
  • Yusei Kikuchi put together a less-than-stellar inaugural season in Seattle, but he’s not a lost cause, writes Johns. The 28-year-old southpaw went 6-11 with a 5.46 ERA/5.71 FIP across 32 starts (161 2/3 innings) in 2020. Despite Kikuchi’s struggles and a lack of established rotation arms, the Mariners have less interest in extending their use of the Opener in 2020. A focus on relievers who can throw multiple innings will allow the Mariners to protect Kikuchi somewhat. Mostly, the Mariners envision progress through regression. Writes Johns, “…there is a feeling that he tinkered far too much with his arm angles and throwing motion — both over the course of the year and even during games — and needs to get back to just being himself and letting it rip as he did when he first arrived.”

Mariners Notes: Felix, Dipoto, Long

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The latest from Seattle….

  • With Felix Hernandez likely approaching the end of his days in a Mariners uniform, The Athletic’s Corey Brock (subscription required) took a look back at the right-hander’s often-outstanding career.  The piece covers Hernandez’s initial signing with the organization as a 16-year-old in 2002, noting that he rejected overtures from the Braves and Yankees because of his good relationship with Mariners scouts Pedro Avila, Bob Engle and Emilio Carrasquel.  From there, Hernandez cracked the big leagues by the time he was 19, and then embarked on almost a full decade as one of the sport’s best pitchers.  His production has slowed since he began his 30’s, however, due to both injuries and perhaps a hesitance to embrace changes to his conditioning and pitching repertoire.  Hernandez (who turns 34 next April) has indicated that he wants to pitch next season, though it’s hard to see him landing a Major League contract this offseason in the wake of a year that has seen him post a 6.31 ERA in 61 1/3 innings while spending over three months on the injured list.
  • At a recent town hall event for Mariners fans, GM Jerry Dipoto pointed towards 2021 as the potential turn-around date for the team’s rebuild, Larry Stone of the Seattle Times writes.  That said, Dipoto added “There is no scientific answer to the question. I can’t give you a decimal point or a dollar amount or a date and time when it’s all going to crest. But we feel like we’re building talent in a traditional way and we’re adding, let’s call it new, modern techniques of player development and player analysis that we feel make us a little bit different. You got to do something a little bit different in order to beat the teams that are out in front of us.”  Dipoto is known far more for his penchant for trades rather than big-ticket free agents, and the general manager hinted that this reluctance to fully dive into the free agent marketplace will continue even when the M’s have more payroll available.  “We don’t intend to go throw that [money] at the free-agent market, because quite frankly we’re not one player away, as you can see,” Dipoto said.
  • Shed Long is one of several young players who have been given a chance on the young Mariners this season, and Long is making a case for himself as an everyday player in 2020, Adam Jude of the Seattle Times writes.  With three more hits in today’s game against the Pirates, Long is now batting .284/.357/.466 over his first 129 career plate appearances, also filling a void for the M’s as a leadoff man.  It’s been an impressive rookie season for Long, even despite the fact that his Triple-A development was slowed by seven weeks on the IL with a broken finger.  While Long could bounce around the diamond between left field, third base, and second base, he has spent the bulk of time in Seattle as a second baseman, and could be the future at the position if the Mariners were to part ways with Dee Gordon this winter.

Mariners Notes: Adams, Bradford, Altavilla, King Felix, Long

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The Mariners are no longer pacing the playoff race, but they’re just one behind the Yankees for the league lead in players on the injured list with 12, per MLB.com’s Sarah Wexler, who provides updates on a number of injured Mariners. The bullpen trio of Austin Adams, Chasen Bradford, and Dan Altavilla are all in a similar boat in that they shouldn’t require surgery, but none are throwing yet so their return dates remain nebulous. Adams, in particular, was having a fine season out of the Mariners pen after he was inexplicably traded to Seattle by the pen-starved Nationals. Adams has appeared in 21 games for Seattle with a 3.47 ERA and even better 2.21 FIP. His strikeout rates dazzled throughout his minor league career, and he’s kept it up in Seattle with an eye-catching 41 strikeouts in 23 ⅓ innings (15.8 K/9). Let’s check in on a couple other injured Mariners…

  • Felix Hernandez may return sooner than most, as he’s schedule to throw a bullpen on Monday, per Wexler. King Felix has been out since May 12. Health will be a necessary precursor for a King Felix return, as he struggled at the outset of the season with a 6.52 ERA across eight starts. He’ll have a role on the Mariners when he returns, but it’s been a steep decline for the Mariners legend, who’s pulling down just under $28MM this season and likely headed towards free agency at season’s end. 
  • Just as Shed Long was given an opportunity to get his season back on track, the music stopped again for the well-traveled prospect. Long came off the injured list for Thursday’s game in Tacoma only to injure his hand while playing second base, tweets the Rainiers’ broadcaster Mike Curto. Long will return to the injured list. When he’s been healthy, Long has fared better with Tacoma than with the big league club, though he showed promise at the ML level as well. As a Rainier, he’s slashing .279/.343/.466, versus .232/.329/.377 in 19 games as a Mariner. It’s been a tumultuous calendar year for long, who no doubt would appreciate a stretch of stability if he can get healthy. The Seattle roster should be able to accommodate giving him another crack at it if/when he sustains a measure of good health.

Mariners Place Dee Gordon, Ryon Healy On 10-Day IL

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The Mariners announced a lengthy list of roster moves today. Infielders Dee Gordon (right wrist contusion) and Ryon Healy (lower back inflammation) were placed on the 10-day injured list, while righty Parker Markel was optioned out.

Those departures cleared the way for a trio of additions. As already reported, lefty Tommy Milone was added to the 40-man and active rosters. He’ll be joined in the bigs by infielders Shed Long and Dylan Moore.

It doesn’t seem there’s much reason to fear lengthy absences from Gordon or Healy, though details aren’t yet known. Gordon has struggled since being hit by a pitch recently. Healy left last night’s contest with a back flare-up.

Mariners Recall Mallex Smith, Option Shed Long

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Mallex Smith’s time in the minors didn’t last long. Less than two weeks after being optioned to Triple-A Tacoma, Smith has been recalled by the Mariners. In his place, infield prospect Shed Long was optioned to Tacoma.

It was a brief but perhaps much-needed respite for Smith, who got out to an awful .165/.255/.247 start to the season as Seattle’s regular center fielder. The slow start likely hasn’t done much to sway the organization’s hope that Smith can be a long-term option in center field, and it’s possible that his 10-game run in Tacoma provided just the reset he needed. In 48 Triple-A plate appearances, Smith hit .333/.375/.467 with a homer, three doubles and a perfect seven steals in seven tries. Most encouraging of all, he struck out just four times after punching out at an alarming 30 percent rate through his first 110 MLB plate appearances.

The 23-year-old Long, meanwhile, will go back to Tacoma and continue to receive the type of regular reps that weren’t available to him on the big league roster. Recalled as an injury replacement last week, Long appeared in just three games with the Mariners and went hitless in 11 plate appearances. He’s far too important to their long-term outlook to be languishing in a seldom-used bench role, so the decision to send him back to Tacoma, where he hit .276/.350/.504 in 32 games prior to his promotion, makes perfect sense. He’ll quite likely be back later this season and is will at some point have the opportunity to win an everyday role with the Mariners — likely at second base.

Mariners Promote J.P. Crawford, Shed Long

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2:33pm: The move is now official. Moore was placed on the 10-day IL and righty Chasen Bradford was optioned to create roster space.

10:49am: The Mariners are promoting young infielders J.P. Crawford and Shed Long in advance of this weekend’s series against the Red Sox, per Corey Brock of The Athletic (Twitter link). Both players are on their way to Boston to join the club. The pair of promotions comes after Dee Gordon exited Thursday’s game against the Yankees after taking a fastball to the wrist. Infielder Dylan Moore, too, is being hampered by a wrist injury and had been slated to undergo testing to determine the root of the issue.

Both Crawford and Long are considered potential long-term pieces in the Seattle infield. Each arrived in the organization this winter as part of general manger Jerry Dipoto’s whirlwind of trades to “re-imagine” the roster moving forward. Crawford, the 16th pick in the 2013 draft, was long considered to be the Phillies’ shortstop of the future and for years ranked among the game’s top 20 overall prospects. However, he was the key piece acquired by Seattle in the trade that sent Jean Segura to Philadelphia, and it’s now the Mariners who hope that Crawford can lock down the shortstop position for the foreseeable future. He’s not ranked among the organization’s top prospects due to the fact that he has too much big league service time to technically be considered a prospect anymore, but the organization nevertheless views him as a vital long-term cog.

Long, meanwhile, will be making his MLB debut the first time he gets into a game and is widely considered to be one of Seattle’s best farmhands. The Mariners thought highly enough of Long to trade last season’s second-round pick, outfielder Josh Stowers, to the Yankees in a straight-up swap for him back in January — barely seven months after the draft. The Yankees had just acquired Long as part of the trade that sent Sonny Gray to Cincinnati, though the Mariners’ interest in Long predated that three-team swap. He’s played second base, third base and left field with the Mariners organization this season, though second base or left field seems to be his likeliest long-term home. Long draws praise for above-average power and speed, and he has a track record of drawing walks at a healthy clip to help offset a strikeout rate in the 22 to 23 percent range.

To this point in the season, the 24-year-old Crawford is hitting .319/.420/.457 with three homers, seven doubles, three steals and nearly as many walks (19) as strikeouts (25) through 138 plate appearances in Triple-A Tacoma. The 23-year-old Long, meanwhile, is hitting .276/.350/.504 with five homers, 10 doubles and four triples while posting 14 walks against 31 strikeouts (also in 138 plate appearances).

The arrival of both well-regarded young infielders likely signals a trip to the injured list for Gordon and/or Moore, and given how important they are to the Mariners’ future, both will probably be afforded everyday at-bats. That’ll likely cut into the playing time of Tim Beckham, although the veteran infielder’s bat has predictably cooled after a torrid start to the season. Beckham hit .410/.477/.846 through his first 10 games but has turned in just a .206/.260/.361 batting line with a 35.5 percent strikeout rate in 104 plate appearances since.

From a service-time vantage point, even if both infielders stay in the Majors from this point forth, the Mariners will control Crawford for five years beyond the 2019 campaign and control Long for six. Crawford came into the season with a year and 20 days of MLB service under his belt, but there are only 144 days remaining in the 2019 campaign, so he can’t reach the 172-day mark he’d need to cross the threshold into two full years of Major League service time. The promotion could very well put both players on track for Super Two status, which would make them both eligible for arbitration four times rather than three — Crawford beginning after the 2020 season and Long beginning after the 2021 campaign. All of that, of course, could change depending on whether either is optioned back to Tacoma.

Reds Acquire, Extend Sonny Gray As Part Of Three-Team Trade

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After several days of reporting and speculation, right-hander Sonny Gray has officially been traded from the Yankees to the Reds and also agreed to a contract extension with Cincinnati. It’s a three-team deal that also involves the Mariners. Second base prospect Shed Long and a Competitive Balance Round A pick go from the Reds to the Yankees in exchange for Gray and left-hander Reiver Sanmartin. New York, in turn, has flipped Long directly to the Mariners in return for center field prospect Josh Stowers — the Mariners’ second-round pick in the 2018 draft.

Sonny Gray | Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

As part of the trade, Gray has agreed to a new, three-year contract extension with the Reds that’ll span the 2020-22 seasons. He’ll earn $30.5MM over those three campaigns — that’s in addition to his $7.5MM salary for the 2019 season. Along with a $500K signing bonus, the deal reportedly promises $10MM in each of its three years and also comes with a $12MM club option for the 2023 season. There are $500K worth of incentives in each new season of the deal, with that value achievable in full at 190 innings pitched, and his annual salaries can grow based on performance escalators. Gray’s contract doesn’t contain a no-trade clause but stipulates that he be paid a $1MM assignment bonus each time he is traded.

Cincinnati emerged as a front-runner to land Gray last Friday, and his addition will be the third such pickup of the Reds’ offseason, joining lefty Alex Wood and fellow righty Tanner Roark. That trio will be added to a new-look Cincinnati rotation that’s also projected to include holdovers Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani. It’s a group that should give the Reds a vastly more competitive outlook in 2019 while likely pushing names such as Robert Stephenson, Brandon Finnegan, Tyler Mahle, Jackson Stephens and others out of the Major League rotation mix and either into bullpen roles or back to the minors (Stephenson, it should be noted, is out of options).

A change of scenery for Gray, 29, only makes sense after he struggled profusely with the Yankees in 2018 — particularly when pitching at Yankee Stadium. Gray posted a ghastly 6.98 ERA at home in 2018 compared to a 3.17 ERA on the road, and while there’s surely more at play in those splits than the surface-level numbers exhibit, the contrast between the two numbers is unequivocally jarring.

The Reds quite likely found it encouraging that Gray’s velocity remained consistent with its previous levels (93.8 mph average fastball), that his swinging-strike rate remained north of 10 percent and that his ground-ball tendencies (50 percent) remained above the league average. Gray actually allowed home runs at his lowest rate since 2015 as well (0.97 HR/9; 13.3% HR/FB), despite pitching more than 40 percent of his innings at the homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. Of course, he’ll be moving to a similarly hitter-friendly setting in the form of Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, though the move to the National League should prove beneficial.

With the extension now in place, the trade of Gray differs starkly from Cincinnati’s acquisition of Wood and Roark, each of whom is a pure one-year rental. In essence, it’s a bet that the move into a lower-pressure setting could help Gray in a similar manner that Matt Harvey seemed to benefit following his own trade over from the Mets this past May. Gray, it should be noted, is not far removed from an extended run as a high-quality arm; the former No. 18 overall draft pick entered the 2018 season with a career 3.45 ERA in 770 1/3 innings, highlighted by an All-Star nod and a third-place Cy Young finish in 2015.

While it may be too much to expect for Gray to return to those lofty heights, he at the very least has the potential to help comprise a radically improved Reds rotation and gives the team some long-term stability a a time when many of the pitching prospects acquired over the course of Cincinnati’s rebuild have yet failed to pan out.

Cincinnati will also add a left-handed option to the middle levels of its farm system in the form of Sanmartin. While he wasn’t considered to be one of the organization’s top prospects, Sanmartin reached Double-A for the first time last season, at the age of 22, and pitched to an overall 2.81 ERA with a 58-to-4 K/BB ratio in 67 1/3 innings between Class-A, Class-A Advanced and Double-A. New York originally acquired Sanmartin out of the Rangers organization in a swap that sent righty Ronald Herrera to Texas.

Long, meanwhile, will head to the Mariners in a surprise development and give Seattle a prospect that is not far from big league readiness. The 23-year-old Long was a 12th-round pick by the Reds back in 2013 but has vastly outperformed that draft billing, rising to the Double-A ranks and hitting at a .261/.353/.412 clip with a dozen homers and 19 stolen bases this past season. Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs ranked Long seventh among Reds farmhands just last month, noting that the converted catcher still has some defensive question marks at second base. That said, he has the bat to profile as a regular there if he can improve his glovework, and if not, he could move to an outfield corner.

Stowers, in turn, is several years further from the point where he’d need to be added to the 40-man roster in New York. He went a round or two higher in the draft than many expected on the heels of a strong finish to his college season at Louisville, and it seems that given New York’s quick acquisition of him, the Mariners weren’t the only ones who hoped to snag him in the draft’s early rounds. The Yankees will also acquire a pick that is currently slotted in at No. 36 overall but could move a bit, depending on the outcome of the remaining free agents who rejected qualifying offers (and the subsequent draft pick compensation attached to them). The No. 36 slot last season came with a $1.967MM slot value, meaning the Yankees have likely added another $2MM+ to their bonus pool in the 2019 draft.

A trade of Gray has been expected since early in the offseason since Yankees general manager Brian Cashman openly spoke about his desire to find a change of scenery for Gray. Today’s swap gives the Yankees a rotation consisting of Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ and CC Sabathia. With Gray no longer in the fold, the Yankees’ top depth options are Domingo German, Jonathan Loaisiga, Luis Cessa and Chance Adams. The organization likely hopes to have lefty Jordan Montgomery, who underwent Tommy John surgery early last summer, can return late in the 2019 season, though it certainly possesses ample rotation depth even if he’s shelved into the 2020 season.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported Friday that the Reds were closing in on a deal to acquire Gray. Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweeted over the weekend that Long and the draft pick would likely be involved in the deal, if completed. Rosenthal first added that the trade could hinge on an extension. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported today that Gray had been traded, confirming Long’s inclusion and adding that he’d been flipped to Seattle for Stowers. Rosenthal reported the extension and the terms of Gray’s new contract, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today adding salary details. Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer added Sanmartin’s inclusion in the swap. Heyman tweeted the trade assignment bonus.

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