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Cardinals Promote Gordon Graceffo

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June 28: The Cardinals have made it official today, announcing they have selected Graceffo to the roster. Righty Kyle Leahy was optioned to open an active roster spot while Matz was transferred to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man spot.

June 27: The Cardinals are planning to promote pitching prospect Gordon Graceffo before tomorrow night’s matchup with the Reds, reports Katie Woo of the Athletic (X link). The 24-year-old will be available out of the bullpen behind scheduled starter Andre Pallante.

Garceffo signed for an overslot $500K bonus as a fifth-round pick out of Villanova in 2021. The 6’4″ righty had a breakout season the following year, working to a 2.97 ERA across 139 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A. He garnered some attention as a Top 100 caliber prospect heading into 2023, but his stock took a hit last year. Graceffo missed some time with a shoulder issue and wasn’t especially effective in his first crack at Triple-A. He allowed 4.92 ERA through 86 innings at the top minor league level.

Entering the season, Graceffo ranked in the back half of the organization’s top 10 prospects at both Baseball America and on Keith Law’s write-up at The Athletic. Both outlets wrote that Graceffo looked like a back-end starter last season after flashing mid-rotation potential during the ’22 campaign. Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice of FanGraphs slotted Graceffo 25th among St. Louis farmhands in May, suggesting he may fit better in relief unless he recaptures the command he showed a couple seasons ago.

The 24-year-old has started 14 times for Triple-A Memphis this year. He owns a solid 3.84 ERA, albeit with pedestrian strikeout (21.4%) and walk (8.9%) rates. Graceffo hasn’t missed a ton of bats since he first reached the Double-A level. Working in shorter stints could improve that — either by pushing his velocity back to the mid-90s range he’d shown before the shoulder injury or allowing him to lean heavily on a slider that evaluators credit as an above-average to plus pitch. While Graceffo’s first MLB look will come out of the bullpen, the Cards could eventually send him back to Memphis to keep him stretched out for potential rotation work down the line.

Graceffo is not on the 40-man roster. St. Louis will select his contract tomorrow. Their 40-man roster is at capacity, but they can open a spot by transferring Steven Matz to the 60-day injured list after his recent setback. The Cards will need to take another pitcher off the active roster in a corresponding move.

Steven Matz Has Rehab Setback, Won’t Return For At Least 4-6 Weeks

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Steven Matz’s time on the injured list has been extended after the left-hander hit a setback in his rehab work.  As Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol told The Athletic’s Katie Woo (links to X) and other reporters, Matz came out his Double-A rehab start last Sunday with more tightness in his back, and the starter has now been shut down for two weeks.  Marmol gave a 4-6 week timeline as a projected best-case scenario for Matz to return to the active roster, as Matz’s throwing program will have to more or less be started from scratch after his shutdown period.

It’s a tough break for Matz, who had banked three rehab starts already and was seemingly on track to be activated from the injured list around the start of July.  Instead, he’ll now be sidelined for another month at the very least, and more realistically probably won’t be back until some time in August.

Matz made six starts and posted a 6.18 ERA over 27 2/3 innings before going on the IL in early May with a lower back strain, so it has been a rough season all around for the 33-year-old.  All told, not much has gone right for Matz since signing his four-year, $44MM free agent deal with St. Louis in November 2021, as various injuries have limited the southpaw to 180 2/3 innings since Opening Day 2022.  He looked to be turning things around with a solid 3.86 ERA over 105 innings last year, but neither the production or the good health has been there for Matz this year.

Since it doesn’t seem like Matz will make it back prior to the July 30 trade deadline, it only exacerbates the Cardinals’ need for rotation help.  The club’s top four of Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Miles Mikolas has been more solid than outstanding, but the quartet has at least been reliably able to take the ball and eat innings.  Finding a fifth starter has been an issue for the Cards, as none of Matz, Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante, or Zack Thompson have provided much help in what has become a bit of a revolving door of a rotation spot.

Like pretty much the entire National League, the Cardinals are in something of a holding pattern with more than a month to do before the trade deadline.  St. Louis is an even 37-37 on the season, but the Cards are out of the last wild card spot on percentage points alone due to a lot of parity in the Senior Circuit — only four NL teams entered Saturday’s action with records above .500.

If this uncertainty continues over the next month, it will leave St. Louis and many other teams unclear about how aggressive they should be with their deadline shopping, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Cardinals explore selling if they hit a slump and fall out of the race.  Given how the Cards are coming off a rare losing season, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak could possibly feel more pressure to “go for it” in order to get the team back to its customary dose of October baseball, though Mozeliak has traditionally made more mid-level deadline moves rather than true blockbusters during his tenure in the St. Louis front office.

Cardinals Notes: Contreras, Matz, Rotation, Hence

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Cardinals fans received some excellent news recently as injured catcher Willson Contreras told reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) yesterday that he’s been cleared to resume baseball activity after a CT scan revealed good news regarding his surgically-repaired forearm. Contreras has already caught a bullpen for right-hander Andre Pallante and today he resumed hitting. Contreras indicated that he hopes to return to big league action by the end of the month, telling reporters that “it won’t be July” when he returns.

It’s an incredibly impressive turnaround for Contreras, who was initially expected to miss ten weeks of action after a swing of the bat from J.D. Martinez collided with his forearm back in May. Instead, he was cleared to resume baseball activities just one month to the day after sustaining the injury, and appears to be ramping up fairly quickly. A return before the end of June would place Contreras’s return at just six or seven weeks after the injury, though manager Oli Marmol pumped the brakes on talk of a quick return in conversation with reporters (including those at MLB.com). Marmol noted that the club will monitor how Contreras progresses over the coming weeks and lean on the team’s medical staff as they determine a more specific timeline for his return.

Whenever Contreras ultimately returns, he figures to be a huge asset to the Cardinals. The 32-year-old slugger was slashing an incredible .280/.398/.551 with a 171 wRC+ in 128 trips to the plate at the time of his injury and stood out as the hitter leading a scuffling Cardinals team that fell to a 15-21 record on the day of Contreras’s injury. While their catcher has been on the mend, St. Louis has surged back towards .500 and now sports a 30-33 record that places them just one game back of the final NL Wild Card spot. If St. Louis can manage to hang around the Wild Card race over the next few weeks and Contreras picks up where he left off upon his return, the catcher could help to further transform their offense as they look to establish themselves as contenders ahead of the July 30 trade deadline.

Contreras isn’t the only player progressing towards a return for the Cardinals this month, as veteran southpaw Steven Matz is scheduled to make his second rehab start on Tuesday at the Double-A level as he works his way back from a lower back strain that sidelined him at the end of April. As noted by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, Matz is slated to throw 40 pitches during his next rehab start, meaning that there still figures to be quite a ways to go until he returns to the big league club. The Cardinals are reportedly planning on stretching Matz out into the 75-80 pitch range before he comes off the IL and steps back into the club’s big league rotation, a goal that will likely keep him on the shelf until sometime near the end of the month if he continues building up at his current pace.

In Matz’s absence, the Cardinals have not been able to settle on a fifth starter to fill the void behind Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Miles Mikolas. The club has used both right-hander Andre Pallante and lefty Matthew Liberatore to follow up that quartet in the weeks since Matz was placed on the shelf, but the duo has combined for a 7.11 ERA across five starts in Matz’s absence. Those struggles have led Marmol to be non-committal regarding who will take the ball when the fifth spot in the rotation is due up tomorrow against the Rockies, though Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes that Marmol has noted the starter will be chosen from “options already on the roster,” indicating that they won’t look toward other alternatives beyond Pallante or Liberatore just yet.

Right-handers Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein are already on the club’s 40-man roster and could theoretically be options to fill out the club’s rotation should St. Louis eventually decide to make a change, but the pair have ERAs of 4.46 and 4.50 respectively at the Triple-A level this year with no big league experience. Cardinals fans are surely hopeful that they’ll see right-hander Tink Hence, the club’s top prospect who has dominated the Double-A level during his age-21 season this year, impact the big league team at some point this year.

Fans hoping to see Hence in St. Louis this season were dealt a scare earlier this week when he was was pulled from his most recent Double-A start after just two innings. Fortunately, MLB.com notes that Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters that Hence’s removal was due to cramping rather than any sort of serious issue and that he should be ready to make his next start for the Double-A Springfield Cardinals. Through 11 starts this year, Hence has pitched to a 3.19 ERA with a 2.82 FIP in 53 2/3 innings of work while striking out a fantastic 32.4% of batters faced. It would hardly be a surprise to see those numbers earn Hence a promotion to Triple-A in the near future; after all, St. Louis promoted him from High-A to Double-A after eleven similarly excellent starts last year.

Keynan Middleton To Receive Second Opinion On Forearm Strain

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Cardinals right-hander Keynan Middleton is set to receive a second opinion regarding his strained forearm, manager Oli Marmol told reporters (including MLB.com’s John Denton) yesterday. Denton added earlier today that Middleton is set to travel to New York to receive the second opinion from Yankees physician Dr. Christian Ahmad on Monday, with Denton noting that Ahmad is described as an “expert” on Tommy John surgery on his business website.

That’s certainly an ominous update regarding Middleton, who the Cardinals signed to be a key piece of their set-up mix this year but has yet to pitch a regular season inning in a Cardinals uniform due to the injury, which sidelined him during Spring Training. The 30-year-old seemed to be nearing a return in mid-May but the Cardinals relayed last week that he had suffered a setback and that the club was now concerned about damage to his ulnar collateral ligament. Surgery on Middleton’s UCL, whether it were an internal brace procedure or Tommy John surgery, would surely end the veteran’s season before it could begin while potentially impacting the 2025 campaign for the righty as well.

Prior to signing with the Cardinals on a one-year, $6MM deal this past winter, Middleton delivered an impressive 2023 campaign split between the White Sox and the Yankees where he pitched to a 3.38 ERA in 51 appearances. He performed especially well in 14 1/3 innings of work down the stretch with the Yankees last year that saw him post a 1.88 ERA while striking out 30.4% of batters faced. Last season constituted something of a breakout campaign for the 30-year-old, as he entered the 2023 campaign with a rather pedestrian ERA of 4.01 for his career across 143 2/3 innings of work with the Angels, Mariners, and Diamondbacks.

If Middleton were to go under the knife, it would be a tough blow for a St. Louis club that has also weathered injuries to Nick Robertson and Giovanny Gallegos in its bullpen mix. Fortunately for the Cardinals, they’re better situated to weather the loss of a high-upside relief arm than many clubs thanks to the fantastic performance the club has gotten out of closer Ryan Helsley, lefty JoJo Romero, and veteran Andrew Kitteredge at the back of their bullpen. That trio has combined to post a 2.26 ERA in 75 2/3 innings of work while racking up 75 strikeouts against just 16 walks as a group.

While the news regarding Middleton is certainly ominous, Marmol also provided a more positive injury update yesterday, as relayed by Denton (X link). Left-hander Steven Matz is set to throw what Marmol described as a “full intensity” bullpen session tomorrow, and if the veteran recovers well in the aftermath of that session he could head out for a minor league rehab assignment in the near future. That would be a significant relief for the Cardinals, who have been forced to turn to depth options like Matthew Liberatore and Andre Pallante to fill out the club’s rotation while Matz has been out nursing a protruding disc in his back. Matz had struggled to a 6.18 ERA in six starts with the club prior to going on the injured list but could be a valuable piece once healthy, as indicated by his 3.86 ERA (114 ERA+) and 3.75 FIP in 105 innings of work split between the rotation and bullpen last year.

Cardinals Notes: Matz, Liberatore, Marmol

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The Cardinals have been without Steven Matz all month, as the veteran lefty has been on the shelf due to a lower back strain. He’d been slated to throw a bullpen session today, but that’s now been scrapped due to ongoing discomfort, tweets Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat. Instead, Matz will receive an injection and be shut down from throwing for “at least” the next week — possibly longer, depending on how he responds to the latest treatment.

Matz, 33 at the end of the month, is in the third season of a four-year, $44MM contract signed in free agency. The former Mets and Blue Jays hurler rebounded from a dreadful first season of that agreement in 2022 to give the Cards 105 innings of 3.86 ERA ball last season. He did so with diminished strikeout and walk rates relative to his ’22 levels but also with a resurgent 44.8% grounder rate that helped in mitigating some of the home run troubles he’d experienced in his first year with St. Louis.

The 2024 season has seen Matz make six starts and struggle to a low tally of 27 1/3 innings as well as a grim 6.18 ERA. Matz’s 13.4% strikeout rate would easily be a career-low and stands as the eighth-lowest mark among any of the 182 MLB pitchers to toss at least 20 innings this season. His 8.7% walk rate is average, but this year’s 33.7% ground-ball rate is the lowest of his career other than a 30-inning sample from the shortened 2020 season.

With Matz now sidelined even longer than expected, a window will further open for fellow southpaw Matthew Liberatore. Manager Oli Marmol told the Cardinals beat that plugging Liberatore into Matz’s rotation spot for now “gives us the best chance to win” (X link via Jones), so it seems he’ll remain the preferred option to start in Matz’s absence. Liberatore, acquired from the Rays in the trade sending Randy Arozarena to Tampa Bay, hasn’t topped 50 pitches in an outing this year and thus figures to be limited when he takes the ball today in a road matchup with the Angels. His longest outing of the season has been 3 2/3 innings, but if he can work efficiently, it’s feasible he could get through four or five innings before the Cards go to the bullpen.

Speaking of Marmol, he’s come under quite a bit of fire as the Cardinals have followed up 2023’s surprising last-place finish with an ugly start that once again has them residing in the NL Central’s cellar. Fans have voiced plenty of criticism for the third-year skipper, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak — who surprisingly fired former manager Mike Shildt and installed Marmol as the new skipper — seemed to choose his words carefully when asked by KMOX’s Tom Ackerman how he currently views his manager (X link with audio).

“These are times that are difficult,” said Mozeliak. “I still think he understands the job. I think he knows how to manage. I think he’s trying to put the right combination of players in, but at some level you’ve got to have some performance. I understand fans are not happy with myself. They’re not happy with Oli. I don’t think anything I say here today is going to change that, so I think we have to just keep trying to go back and try to get this to work. And look, we understand if it doesn’t, then people are going to be held accountable — and ultimately that starts with me.”

Marmol was entering the final season of his original three-year deal to manage the Cardinals this year, but the front office extended him through the 2026 season back in mid-March. That contract seemed a clear vote of confidence at the time, but less than two months later, Mozeliak is publicly noting that his skipper has “got to have some level of performance” and speaking about accountability both on the field level and in the front office.

The 16-24 Cardinals are eight games back of the division-leading Brewers and have the fourth-worst run differential in MLB (-51), leading only the Rockies, Marlins and White Sox. Cardinals hitters rank 28th in the majors in batting average (.220), 27th in on-base percentage (.298) and 29th in slugging percentage (.341). Their 136 runs are the second-fewest in MLB, and St. Louis is tied with the White Sox for the game’s fewest home runs (29).

The revamped rotation hasn’t been much better. Cardinals starters are 24th in the big leagues with a combined 4.49 ERA and rank 22nd with a 20.5% strikeout rate. The bullpen, led by closer Ryan Helsley and setup men JoJo Romero, Ryan Fernandez and Andrew Kittredge, has been better, but it’s a top-heavy group. The struggles of those in the final few spots of the ’pen have Cardinals relievers sitting at a flat 4.00 ERA on the season, ranking 15th in the big leagues.

Cardinals Place Steven Matz On Injured List Due To Back Strain

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The Cardinals announced that left-hander Steven Matz has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to May 1, due to a lower back strain. Right-hander Kyle Leahy was recalled in a corresponding move.

The Cards signed the southpaw to a four-year, $44MM deal going into 2022 but they’ve gotten little return on that investment so far. Matz battled shoulder issues for much of 2022 and only tossed 48 innings with a 5.25 earned run average. Last year, he struggled out of the gate and got moved to the bullpen. He got in a good groove and retook a rotation spot as they played out the string on a lost season, finishing strong enough to have a 3.86 ERA by season’s end.

The club was surely hoping he could carry some momentum from that solid finish into 2024, and he did for a brief moment. After three starts, Matz had allowed just three earned runs and had a 1.80 ERA. But he’s allowed 16 earned runs in his three most recent outings, swelling his ERA to 6.18 for the year.

Per Katie Woo of The Athletic (X link), an issue cropped up with Matz’s back after his April 23 outing. The club had an off-day on April 25 and then a rainout April 29, which meant Matz got some extra rest before taking the ball again on April 30. It was hoped that the extra time would help him get beyond the back problem, but that didn’t come to pass. His velocity was down in that last start and he was pulled after allowing four earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. He was sent for an MRI yesterday, per Woo on X, and it seems the club has decided to put Matz on the shelf for at least a couple of weeks.

That will leave the club with Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas as healthy starters, but they will need a fifth at some point. As of today, the Cards are playing 13 games in a row before their next off-day.

Drew Rom was recently transferred to the 60-day injured list and won’t be an option. Matthew Liberatore could be considered but he’s been in the bullpen and isn’t stretched out. Zach Thompson was in the big league rotation before being being moved to the bullpen and then optioned to the minors. He tossed 3 2/3 innings in his most recent Triple-A start.

Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein are each stretched out at Triple-A on on the 40-man, though Kloffenstein has a 5.93 ERA this year. Robberse is in much better form with a 1.77 ERA through six Triple-A starts, though he just started last night and likely wouldn’t be called up before Tuesday. Prospects Gordon Graceffo and Michael McGreevy are also stretched out in Triple-A, but neither is on the 40-man and they both have worse results than Robberse so far.

Cardinals Still Showing Interest In Dylan Cease

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Even after revamping their rotation with a rapid-fire trio of free agent signings, the Cardinals are still in the mix for White Sox righty Dylan Cease, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak said at the press conference to introduce Sonny Gray that he “doubted” his next move would be to add more starting pitching but conceded that he remains “open-minded” to further rotation additions (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).

The Cardinals, of course, signed Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn in just over a week’s time, adding a trio of arms who combined for 97 starts in 2023. The addition of Gray added a front-end presence to the St. Louis rotation, while Lynn and Gibson at the very least provided some reliable bulk innings on the back end. It seems clear that the Cards prioritized some stability after years of injury-related starting pitching crunches at Busch Stadium, and Cease would be a fourth addition in that vein.

In terms of pure results, the 27-year-old Cease (28 next month) has been on both ends of the spectrum recently. In 2022, he finished runner-up to Justin Verlander in AL Cy Young voting, while his 2023 campaign saw his ERA more than double from 2.20 to 4.58. Cease’s velocity dipped by a mile per hour, his strikeout rate fell three percentage points, and he yielded far more hard contact than he did during that elite 2022 campaign. What remained constant, however, was the righty’s availability. Cease made 33 starts this past season — his fourth straight year with a full slate of starts. Since 2020, Cease leads all MLB pitchers with 109 games started.

As things stand, the Cardinals project for a five-man rotation of Gray, Miles Mikolas, Lynn, Gibson and Steven Matz. Mikolas and Matz are both signed through 2025 — Mikolas at a total of $32MM and Matz at $24MM. There’s been some speculation about the possibility of an eventual Matz trade, but the Cardinals are also surely reluctant to thin out their depth too much after being burned by a lack of depth in multiple seasons recently.

Cease would give the Cardinals even more bulk innings but do so while carrying more upside than perhaps any member of their current staff. He’d surely benefit from a move out of the White Sox’ homer-happy stadium and away from their poorly ranked defense. With two years of club control remaining, a projected $8.8MM salary in arbitration (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and clear Cy Young-caliber upside on the mound, bidding for Cease’s services will be fierce.

Already this winter, he’s been connected to the Braves, Dodgers, Reds and Orioles. That’s surely just a fraction of the teams who’ve at least reached out to the ChiSox to gauge the asking price. The Cardinals’ recent free-agent activity might lessen their urgency relative to some of those other suitors, but it’s nevertheless of note that they remain in the mix at all.

From a payroll perspective, they can likely make a Cease acquisition work without even dramatically raising their spending from last year’s levels. The Cards backloaded Gray’s three-year, $75MM contract such that he’ll be paid just $10MM in 2024. Roster Resource projects a $180MM payroll right now, which is only narrowly higher than last year’s Opening Day mark. And the Cards could yet trade arbitration-eligible names like Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson, which would impact that payroll projection.

Someone like O’Neill — a free agent at season’s end — isn’t likely to hold much appeal to the White Sox, who’ll be looking for controllable talent to build around in the near future. But generally speaking, the Cardinals have a bevy of young, MLB-ready talent that could interest Chicago. Names like Carlson, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Luken Baker and Matthew Liberatore all have at least three seasons of club control remaining, and that’s not even counting some interesting upper-minors prospects who’ve yet to debut but are relatively close to the Majors (e.g. Gordon Graceffo, Tink Hence).

As for the timing of a potential Cease trade, reports on the matter are conflicting in nature; MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggested just yesterday that Cease’s market was heating up and a trade could come together by Sunday evening. Not 18 hours later, Rosenthal reported nearly the opposite — that Sox GM Chris Getz has been indicating to teams he prefers to wait until after the top free-agent names have come off the board.

NL Central Notes: Stroman, Cubs, McLain, India, Matz

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The Cubs have been without right-hander Marcus Stroman for just over a month now thanks to inflammation in the 32-year-old hurler’s right hip and a subsequently-diagnosed rib cartilage fracture. Upon the reveal of Stroman’s rib injury two weeks ago, whether or not he would be able to return this season came into question as he was set to be shut down for several weeks without a clear timeline for recovery. Fortunately for fans on the north side, Stroman’s timetable seems to be coming into focus with a return this season clearly still on the table.

Manager David Ross told reporters (including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times) ahead of today’s game against the Reds that Stroman will throw a bullpen session in Arizona. That still leaves a long way for Stroman to go before he can return to a major league mound; assuming tomorrow’s bullpen goes well, he’ll need to progress to facing live hitters and then likely require at least a rehab start or two in the minor leagues before he can return to the starting rotation for the Cubs. Still, even a brief cameo from Stroman before the regular season comes to a close could be a huge boon to Chicago.

Stroman sports a 3.85 ERA and 3.58 FIP across 23 starts this year, but it’s really been a tale of two seasons for the veteran hurler: while he posted a sterling 2.28 ERA and 3.33 FIP in his first sixteen starts, his final seven starts before hitting the injured list saw him post an ugly 9.00 ERA, albeit with a less outlandish 4.39 FIP. It’s hard to say how much of that downturn in performance was related to Stroman’s current injuries, but a healthy and effective return for the right-hander would not only help the Cubs as they look to make the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2018, but also give them another quality option to start in the playoffs alongside lefty ace Justin Steele and veteran hurler Kyle Hendricks, should they succeed in reaching the postseason.

More from around the NL Central:

  • Sticking with the Cubs, Lee also relayed updates from Ross regarding a trio of potential bullpen options for Chicago down the stretch. Left-hander Brandon Hughes and righties Nick Burdi and Ben Brown are expected to pitch today with Triple-A Iowa. Hughes was a breakout reliever for the Cubs last year with a 3.12 ERA in 57 2/3 innings of work with the club last year, but struggled through 13 2/3 injury-plagued innings earlier this season before undergoing knee surgery back in June. Hughes’s return to the bullpen would surely provide a boost for Chicago as swing option Drew Smyly is the only southpaw in the club’s bullpen at the moment. Brown has not yet pitched in the majors but is one of the club’s top prospects who had long been rumored as a potential late-season bullpen option prior to an injury that kept him out of action for the entire month of August. Burdi managed just three innings with the Cubs earlier this season in his first major league work since 2020 before going on the injured list with appendicitis and ulnar nerve irritation.
  • It seems the Reds will be without rookie infielder Matt McLain for a while yet, as the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith relayed an update from manager David Bell indicating that McLain would be out with an oblique injury for two to three more weeks. Such a timeline would likely leave him out of action for most of the remaining regular season. That’s a major blow to the Reds, who have relied on McLain’s strong bat (129 wRC+) and quality glovework around the infield and sit alongside the Marlins, Diamondbacks, and Giants in the thick of the race for the final NL Wild Card spot. Fortunately, the Reds could still receive some reinforcements for their infield in the near future as second baseman Jonathan India is on track to begin a rehab assignment this week after missing the past month with plantar fasciitis.
  • Cardinals manager Oli Marmol indicated to reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) that left-hander Steven Matz’s season could be in jeopardy as the veteran is still “week-to-week” in his rehab from a lat strain sustained last month. Marmol noted that there is “probably not” enough time for him to return in 2023. Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch adds that a return from Matz would likely be limited in terms of length, as Matz won’t have time to get stretched out as a starter before the season comes to a close. Matz has had an up-and-down season with the Cardinals this year but will end the season with solid overall numbers if he’s ultimately unable to return. In 25 appearances (17 starts), Matz posted a 3.86 ERA, 11% better than league average by measure of ERA+, with a 3.76 FIP in 105 innings of work.

Cardinals Looking To Add Three Starting Pitchers This Offseason

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The Cardinals have made no secret of their need to add starting pitching. It’s self-evident, as a rotation that ranks 23rd with a 4.73 ERA has been a key factor in the Cards’ disappointing season. Deadline deals shipped out impending free agents Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty, while Adam Wainwright is retiring at year’s end.

With three members of their anticipated starting five either already or soon to be out the door, St. Louis is gearing up to add multiple replacements. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak said yesterday the club anticipated bringing in three starting pitchers next winter (relayed by John Denton of MLB.com).

It’s not the first time Mozeliak has expressed that goal. The baseball ops leader indicated a desire for a trio of starters last month. At the time, he left open the possibility of accomplishing some of that at the trade deadline.

The Cards indeed followed through on their goal of adding upper minors pitching. Lefty Drew Rom, who has spent the entire season in Triple-A, came back from Baltimore in the Flaherty deal. Double-A righty Tekoah Roby was arguably the most talented prospect the Cards received in the swap that sent Montgomery and Chris Stratton to Texas. Righties Adam Kloffenstein and Sem Robberse — each of whom was acquired from the Blue Jays for Jordan Hicks — were assigned to Triple-A.

Since none of those hurlers have yet made their MLB debuts, it seems the Cards aren’t penciling any of them into next year’s starting five. Mozeliak conceded the front office overestimated their rotation depth coming into this season and it has clearly since been a priority to bolster the upper levels of the minors.

The only pitcher who looks assured of an Opening Day rotation job is Miles Mikolas. The right-hander is having another solid season, pitching to a 4.27 ERA over 26 starts. He’s not overpowering, but he’s an elite strike-thrower and has been a source of mid-rotation innings for five seasons in St. Louis.

Steven Matz looked to have turned a corner after a brief bullpen demotion. Since returning to the rotation, the southpaw worked to a 1.86 ERA while fanning over a quarter of opponents with an excellent 4.6% walk rate over seven starts. It had been Matz’s best stretch as a Cardinal — until he was diagnosed with a lat strain that could end his season. The recent strong run probably gives Matz an inside track on a rotation spot next spring, though it’s a small enough sample his hold on a job could be tenuous.

Since the deadline, St. Louis has given rotation looks to Matthew Liberatore and Dakota Hudson. Liberatore, a former top prospect, had a strong season in Triple-A but hasn’t carried it over against big league hitters. Over 45 2/3 MLB frames this year, he carries a 5.72 ERA with a well below-average 14.4% strikeout rate. Still just 23 with another minor league option remaining, Liberatore isn’t in danger of losing his roster spot. He’ll get another eight or nine starts down the stretch but hasn’t solidified his hold on a ’24 rotation job.

Hudson isn’t a lock to be on next year’s roster. The sinkerballer is playing this season on a $2.65MM arbitration salary. He’d be due a modest raise on that amount if St. Louis tenders him a contract. Hudson has a 4.31 ERA in 31 1/3 MLB innings, starting three of nine appearances. He worked out of the rotation with Triple-A Memphis, posting a 6.00 ERA with a modest 17.3% strikeout percentage.

Matz’s injury cleared a rotation job for former first-round selection Zack Thompson. The 25-year-old lefty has worked almost exclusively in relief at the big league level. His numbers in that capacity — a 2.59 ERA, 24.9% strikeout rate, 51.3% grounder percentage through 59 2/3 career innings — are impressive. Yet Thompson struggled mightily when the Cards optioned him to work out of the Triple-A rotation. Over 34 1/3 frames with Memphis, he was tagged for an 8.65 ERA while struggling to find the strike zone.

Between Liberatore, Thompson and a few upper minors arms — Rom and Connor Thomas could have the upper hand, since they’re already on the 40-man roster — St. Louis has a number of controllable pitchers they can evaluate over the next seven weeks. It’s hard to envision anyone in that group staking a firm claim to a season-opening rotation spot, though they can at least put themselves in line for depth work that’ll inevitably arise throughout the course of the year.

Once the offseason arrives, Mozeliak and his staff will set about identifying external targets. The upcoming free agent class is pitching-heavy. Beyond Shohei Ohtani, some names on the market include Blake Snell, NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Montgomery, Aaron Nola, Julio Urías, Lucas Giolito, likely Eduardo Rodriguez and Seth Lugo (who each seem set to decline player options on their deals), and Michael Lorenzen. Veterans like Marcus Stroman (who also has a player option), James Paxton and Kenta Maeda could be limited to shorter-term contracts based on their age/injury histories but are pitching well this season.

St. Louis has never topped $80MM on a free agent deal for a pitcher. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cards set a new high-water mark in that regard next winter. Roster Resource calculates their 2024 payroll commitments around $112MM, well below this year’s Opening Day figure that landed in the $177MM range. Arbitration raises for Tyler O’Neill, Tommy Edman, Ryan Helsley and Dylan Carlson would add another $15-20MM to that projected ledger, but that leaves a fair bit of flexibility for attacking free agency.

That’s before considering the possibility of trades to potentially clear some payroll room while bringing back rotation help. Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos and Carlson were all floated in rumors this summer. St. Louis ended up holding virtually everyone who was controllable beyond this season but could certainly reopen trade talks on those players over the winter. The outfield surplus that fueled speculation about a Carlson deal still hasn’t been resolved. He seems likely to be a popular subject of trade attention yet again.

Cardinals Select Casey Lawrence

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The Cardinals announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Casey Lawrence. He will take the active roster spot of left-hander Steven Matz, who landed on the 15-day injured list yesterday with a lat strain. The club has had many vacancies on its 40-man roster since their deadline selloff and won’t need a corresponding move in that regard.

Lawrence, 35, began the year on a minor league deal with the Blue Jays. He made 18 starts for Triple-A Buffalo, logging 90 2/3 innings. He allowed 4.67 earned runs per nine frames in that time, struck out 20.5% of batters faced, walked 7.3% and got grounders on 45% of balls in play. He didn’t get a roster spot with the Jays and opted out of his deal in mid-July, landing a minors deal with the Cards shortly thereafter. He’s made three starts for Triple-A Memphis with a 5.40 ERA.

The righty will crack the big leagues for the first time this year. He has 44 games of MLB experience from prior seasons, most of that coming with the Jays and Mariners back in 2017 and 2018. He’s only made six appearances in the show since then, having spent 2019 with the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Overall, has a 6.80 ERA in his 96 2/3 major league innings.

The starting rotation has been a weak part of the Cardinals’ roster all year. Matz struggled badly in the early going and got moved to the bullpen. He turned things around but is now on the injured list. Adam Wainwright has an unsightly 8.78 ERA on the year. Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty were both traded prior to the deadline a couple of weeks ago.

Miles Mikolas has been the only solid pillar of the group this year, as he has a serviceable 4.27 ERA in 26 starts. The rest of the rotation currently consists of Wainwright and then players that have bounced to the bullpen and/or minors throughout the year in Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson. Liberatore tossed eight shutty in his last outing but has a 5.72 ERA on the year overall. Hudson has a passable 4.31 ERA on the year but with just three of his outings being starts, and his 6.00 ERA in Triple-A is worrisome. Thompson is somewhat similar with a 3.96 ERA in the bigs, but in just one start and 16 relief appearances, while his Triple-A ERA is 8.65 this year.

Lawrence could make some starts down the stretch or perhaps serve in a multi-inning relief role behind someone in that group. There’s enough uncertainty that the Cards figure to need some innings one way or another as they look to get through a lost season.

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