Steven Matz

Cardinals Still Showing Interest In Dylan Cease

By Steve Adams | November 30, 2023 at 10:57am CDT

Even after revamping their rotation with a rapid-fire trio of free agent signings, the Cardinals are still in the mix for White Sox righty Dylan Cease, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak said at the press conference to introduce Sonny Gray that he “doubted” his next move would be to add more starting pitching but conceded that he remains “open-minded” to further rotation additions (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).

The Cardinals, of course, signed Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn in just over a week’s time, adding a trio of arms who combined for 97 starts in 2023. The addition of Gray added a front-end presence to the St. Louis rotation, while Lynn and Gibson at the very least provided some reliable bulk innings on the back end. It seems clear that the Cards prioritized some stability after years of injury-related starting pitching crunches at Busch Stadium, and Cease would be a fourth addition in that vein.

In terms of pure results, the 27-year-old Cease (28 next month) has been on both ends of the spectrum recently. In 2022, he finished runner-up to Justin Verlander in AL Cy Young voting, while his 2023 campaign saw his ERA more than double from 2.20 to 4.58. Cease’s velocity dipped by a mile per hour, his strikeout rate fell three percentage points, and he yielded far more hard contact than he did during that elite 2022 campaign. What remained constant, however, was the righty’s availability. Cease made 33 starts this past season — his fourth straight year with a full slate of starts. Since 2020, Cease leads all MLB pitchers with 109 games started.

As things stand, the Cardinals project for a five-man rotation of Gray, Miles Mikolas, Lynn, Gibson and Steven Matz. Mikolas and Matz are both signed through 2025 — Mikolas at a total of $32MM and Matz at $24MM. There’s been some speculation about the possibility of an eventual Matz trade, but the Cardinals are also surely reluctant to thin out their depth too much after being burned by a lack of depth in multiple seasons recently.

Cease would give the Cardinals even more bulk innings but do so while carrying more upside than perhaps any member of their current staff. He’d surely benefit from a move out of the White Sox’ homer-happy stadium and away from their poorly ranked defense. With two years of club control remaining, a projected $8.8MM salary in arbitration (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and clear Cy Young-caliber upside on the mound, bidding for Cease’s services will be fierce.

Already this winter, he’s been connected to the Braves, Dodgers, Reds and Orioles. That’s surely just a fraction of the teams who’ve at least reached out to the ChiSox to gauge the asking price. The Cardinals’ recent free-agent activity might lessen their urgency relative to some of those other suitors, but it’s nevertheless of note that they remain in the mix at all.

From a payroll perspective, they can likely make a Cease acquisition work without even dramatically raising their spending from last year’s levels. The Cards backloaded Gray’s three-year, $75MM contract such that he’ll be paid just $10MM in 2024. Roster Resource projects a $180MM payroll right now, which is only narrowly higher than last year’s Opening Day mark. And the Cards could yet trade arbitration-eligible names like Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson, which would impact that payroll projection.

Someone like O’Neill — a free agent at season’s end — isn’t likely to hold much appeal to the White Sox, who’ll be looking for controllable talent to build around in the near future. But generally speaking, the Cardinals have a bevy of young, MLB-ready talent that could interest Chicago. Names like Carlson, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Luken Baker and Matthew Liberatore all have at least three seasons of club control remaining, and that’s not even counting some interesting upper-minors prospects who’ve yet to debut but are relatively close to the Majors (e.g. Gordon Graceffo, Tink Hence).

As for the timing of a potential Cease trade, reports on the matter are conflicting in nature; MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggested just yesterday that Cease’s market was heating up and a trade could come together by Sunday evening. Not 18 hours later, Rosenthal reported nearly the opposite — that Sox GM Chris Getz has been indicating to teams he prefers to wait until after the top free-agent names have come off the board.

NL Central Notes: Stroman, Cubs, McLain, India, Matz

By Nick Deeds | September 3, 2023 at 4:05pm CDT

The Cubs have been without right-hander Marcus Stroman for just over a month now thanks to inflammation in the 32-year-old hurler’s right hip and a subsequently-diagnosed rib cartilage fracture. Upon the reveal of Stroman’s rib injury two weeks ago, whether or not he would be able to return this season came into question as he was set to be shut down for several weeks without a clear timeline for recovery. Fortunately for fans on the north side, Stroman’s timetable seems to be coming into focus with a return this season clearly still on the table.

Manager David Ross told reporters (including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times) ahead of today’s game against the Reds that Stroman will throw a bullpen session in Arizona. That still leaves a long way for Stroman to go before he can return to a major league mound; assuming tomorrow’s bullpen goes well, he’ll need to progress to facing live hitters and then likely require at least a rehab start or two in the minor leagues before he can return to the starting rotation for the Cubs. Still, even a brief cameo from Stroman before the regular season comes to a close could be a huge boon to Chicago.

Stroman sports a 3.85 ERA and 3.58 FIP across 23 starts this year, but it’s really been a tale of two seasons for the veteran hurler: while he posted a sterling 2.28 ERA and 3.33 FIP in his first sixteen starts, his final seven starts before hitting the injured list saw him post an ugly 9.00 ERA, albeit with a less outlandish 4.39 FIP. It’s hard to say how much of that downturn in performance was related to Stroman’s current injuries, but a healthy and effective return for the right-hander would not only help the Cubs as they look to make the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2018, but also give them another quality option to start in the playoffs alongside lefty ace Justin Steele and veteran hurler Kyle Hendricks, should they succeed in reaching the postseason.

More from around the NL Central:

Sticking with the Cubs, Lee also relayed updates from Ross regarding a trio of potential bullpen options for Chicago down the stretch. Left-hander Brandon Hughes and righties Nick Burdi and Ben Brown are expected to pitch today with Triple-A Iowa. Hughes was a breakout reliever for the Cubs last year with a 3.12 ERA in 57 2/3 innings of work with the club last year, but struggled through 13 2/3 injury-plagued innings earlier this season before undergoing knee surgery back in June. Hughes’s return to the bullpen would surely provide a boost for Chicago as swing option Drew Smyly is the only southpaw in the club’s bullpen at the moment. Brown has not yet pitched in the majors but is one of the club’s top prospects who had long been rumored as a potential late-season bullpen option prior to an injury that kept him out of action for the entire month of August. Burdi managed just three innings with the Cubs earlier this season in his first major league work since 2020 before going on the injured list with appendicitis and ulnar nerve irritation.
It seems the Reds will be without rookie infielder Matt McLain for a while yet, as the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith relayed an update from manager David Bell indicating that McLain would be out with an oblique injury for two to three more weeks. Such a timeline would likely leave him out of action for most of the remaining regular season. That’s a major blow to the Reds, who have relied on McLain’s strong bat (129 wRC+) and quality glovework around the infield and sit alongside the Marlins, Diamondbacks, and Giants in the thick of the race for the final NL Wild Card spot. Fortunately, the Reds could still receive some reinforcements for their infield in the near future as second baseman Jonathan India is on track to begin a rehab assignment this week after missing the past month with plantar fasciitis.
Cardinals manager Oli Marmol indicated to reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) that left-hander Steven Matz’s season could be in jeopardy as the veteran is still “week-to-week” in his rehab from a lat strain sustained last month. Marmol noted that there is “probably not” enough time for him to return in 2023. Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch adds that a return from Matz would likely be limited in terms of length, as Matz won’t have time to get stretched out as a starter before the season comes to a close. Matz has had an up-and-down season with the Cardinals this year but will end the season with solid overall numbers if he’s ultimately unable to return. In 25 appearances (17 starts), Matz posted a 3.86 ERA, 11% better than league average by measure of ERA+, with a 3.76 FIP in 105 innings of work.

Cardinals Looking To Add Three Starting Pitchers This Offseason

By Anthony Franco | August 15, 2023 at 11:53pm CDT

The Cardinals have made no secret of their need to add starting pitching. It’s self-evident, as a rotation that ranks 23rd with a 4.73 ERA has been a key factor in the Cards’ disappointing season. Deadline deals shipped out impending free agents Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty, while Adam Wainwright is retiring at year’s end.

With three members of their anticipated starting five either already or soon to be out the door, St. Louis is gearing up to add multiple replacements. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak said yesterday the club anticipated bringing in three starting pitchers next winter (relayed by John Denton of MLB.com).

It’s not the first time Mozeliak has expressed that goal. The baseball ops leader indicated a desire for a trio of starters last month. At the time, he left open the possibility of accomplishing some of that at the trade deadline.

The Cards indeed followed through on their goal of adding upper minors pitching. Lefty Drew Rom, who has spent the entire season in Triple-A, came back from Baltimore in the Flaherty deal. Double-A righty Tekoah Roby was arguably the most talented prospect the Cards received in the swap that sent Montgomery and Chris Stratton to Texas. Righties Adam Kloffenstein and Sem Robberse — each of whom was acquired from the Blue Jays for Jordan Hicks — were assigned to Triple-A.

Since none of those hurlers have yet made their MLB debuts, it seems the Cards aren’t penciling any of them into next year’s starting five. Mozeliak conceded the front office overestimated their rotation depth coming into this season and it has clearly since been a priority to bolster the upper levels of the minors.

The only pitcher who looks assured of an Opening Day rotation job is Miles Mikolas. The right-hander is having another solid season, pitching to a 4.27 ERA over 26 starts. He’s not overpowering, but he’s an elite strike-thrower and has been a source of mid-rotation innings for five seasons in St. Louis.

Steven Matz looked to have turned a corner after a brief bullpen demotion. Since returning to the rotation, the southpaw worked to a 1.86 ERA while fanning over a quarter of opponents with an excellent 4.6% walk rate over seven starts. It had been Matz’s best stretch as a Cardinal — until he was diagnosed with a lat strain that could end his season. The recent strong run probably gives Matz an inside track on a rotation spot next spring, though it’s a small enough sample his hold on a job could be tenuous.

Since the deadline, St. Louis has given rotation looks to Matthew Liberatore and Dakota Hudson. Liberatore, a former top prospect, had a strong season in Triple-A but hasn’t carried it over against big league hitters. Over 45 2/3 MLB frames this year, he carries a 5.72 ERA with a well below-average 14.4% strikeout rate. Still just 23 with another minor league option remaining, Liberatore isn’t in danger of losing his roster spot. He’ll get another eight or nine starts down the stretch but hasn’t solidified his hold on a ’24 rotation job.

Hudson isn’t a lock to be on next year’s roster. The sinkerballer is playing this season on a $2.65MM arbitration salary. He’d be due a modest raise on that amount if St. Louis tenders him a contract. Hudson has a 4.31 ERA in 31 1/3 MLB innings, starting three of nine appearances. He worked out of the rotation with Triple-A Memphis, posting a 6.00 ERA with a modest 17.3% strikeout percentage.

Matz’s injury cleared a rotation job for former first-round selection Zack Thompson. The 25-year-old lefty has worked almost exclusively in relief at the big league level. His numbers in that capacity — a 2.59 ERA, 24.9% strikeout rate, 51.3% grounder percentage through 59 2/3 career innings — are impressive. Yet Thompson struggled mightily when the Cards optioned him to work out of the Triple-A rotation. Over 34 1/3 frames with Memphis, he was tagged for an 8.65 ERA while struggling to find the strike zone.

Between Liberatore, Thompson and a few upper minors arms — Rom and Connor Thomas could have the upper hand, since they’re already on the 40-man roster — St. Louis has a number of controllable pitchers they can evaluate over the next seven weeks. It’s hard to envision anyone in that group staking a firm claim to a season-opening rotation spot, though they can at least put themselves in line for depth work that’ll inevitably arise throughout the course of the year.

Once the offseason arrives, Mozeliak and his staff will set about identifying external targets. The upcoming free agent class is pitching-heavy. Beyond Shohei Ohtani, some names on the market include Blake Snell, NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Montgomery, Aaron Nola, Julio Urías, Lucas Giolito, likely Eduardo Rodriguez and Seth Lugo (who each seem set to decline player options on their deals), and Michael Lorenzen. Veterans like Marcus Stroman (who also has a player option), James Paxton and Kenta Maeda could be limited to shorter-term contracts based on their age/injury histories but are pitching well this season.

St. Louis has never topped $80MM on a free agent deal for a pitcher. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cards set a new high-water mark in that regard next winter. Roster Resource calculates their 2024 payroll commitments around $112MM, well below this year’s Opening Day figure that landed in the $177MM range. Arbitration raises for Tyler O’Neill, Tommy Edman, Ryan Helsley and Dylan Carlson would add another $15-20MM to that projected ledger, but that leaves a fair bit of flexibility for attacking free agency.

That’s before considering the possibility of trades to potentially clear some payroll room while bringing back rotation help. Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos and Carlson were all floated in rumors this summer. St. Louis ended up holding virtually everyone who was controllable beyond this season but could certainly reopen trade talks on those players over the winter. The outfield surplus that fueled speculation about a Carlson deal still hasn’t been resolved. He seems likely to be a popular subject of trade attention yet again.

Cardinals Select Casey Lawrence

By Darragh McDonald | August 15, 2023 at 1:55pm CDT

The Cardinals announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Casey Lawrence. He will take the active roster spot of left-hander Steven Matz, who landed on the 15-day injured list yesterday with a lat strain. The club has had many vacancies on its 40-man roster since their deadline selloff and won’t need a corresponding move in that regard.

Lawrence, 35, began the year on a minor league deal with the Blue Jays. He made 18 starts for Triple-A Buffalo, logging 90 2/3 innings. He allowed 4.67 earned runs per nine frames in that time, struck out 20.5% of batters faced, walked 7.3% and got grounders on 45% of balls in play. He didn’t get a roster spot with the Jays and opted out of his deal in mid-July, landing a minors deal with the Cards shortly thereafter. He’s made three starts for Triple-A Memphis with a 5.40 ERA.

The righty will crack the big leagues for the first time this year. He has 44 games of MLB experience from prior seasons, most of that coming with the Jays and Mariners back in 2017 and 2018. He’s only made six appearances in the show since then, having spent 2019 with the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Overall, has a 6.80 ERA in his 96 2/3 major league innings.

The starting rotation has been a weak part of the Cardinals’ roster all year. Matz struggled badly in the early going and got moved to the bullpen. He turned things around but is now on the injured list. Adam Wainwright has an unsightly 8.78 ERA on the year. Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty were both traded prior to the deadline a couple of weeks ago.

Miles Mikolas has been the only solid pillar of the group this year, as he has a serviceable 4.27 ERA in 26 starts. The rest of the rotation currently consists of Wainwright and then players that have bounced to the bullpen and/or minors throughout the year in Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson. Liberatore tossed eight shutty in his last outing but has a 5.72 ERA on the year overall. Hudson has a passable 4.31 ERA on the year but with just three of his outings being starts, and his 6.00 ERA in Triple-A is worrisome. Thompson is somewhat similar with a 3.96 ERA in the bigs, but in just one start and 16 relief appearances, while his Triple-A ERA is 8.65 this year.

Lawrence could make some starts down the stretch or perhaps serve in a multi-inning relief role behind someone in that group. There’s enough uncertainty that the Cards figure to need some innings one way or another as they look to get through a lost season.

Steven Matz To Be Shut Down For 2-3 Weeks With Lat Strain

By Leo Morgenstern | August 14, 2023 at 9:37pm CDT

The Cardinals will shut down starting pitcher Steven Matz for at least two weeks, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters (including Katie Woo of The Athletic). The southpaw suffered a lat strain after his latest start on Saturday, August 12. Mozeliak said Matz will be completely shut down for at least 15 days and is unlikely to throw for at least three weeks. With fewer than seven weeks to go in the regular season, Matz may be done for the year.

The Cardinals placed Matz on the 15-day IL this afternoon, retroactive to August 13. A corresponding roster move has yet to be announced. However, he will be replaced in the rotation by fellow left-hander Zack Thompson, who is already on the 26-man roster. Thompson has made 17 appearances for the Cardinals this season, 16 out of the bullpen. He has a 3.96 ERA and 3.32 SIERA in 25 innings pitched. In his lone MLB start, he went four innings, allowing two hits and one earned run. He struck out eight. A former first-round pick, Thompson has started nine of 11 Triple-A appearances this season. He struggled to an 8.65 ERA while walking a staggering 21.8% of opposing hitters there.

Matz’s injury also ensures that Adam Wainwright will make at least one more start. The veteran was removed from his latest outing in the second inning after giving up eight runs on nine hits. Understandably, the Cardinals have given their longest-tenured player a long leash this season, but as he continues to struggle, his spot in the rotation seems less and less secure. The 41-year-old has an 8.78 ERA and a 5.67 SIERA in 15 starts.

The Cardinals have starting pitchers Connor Thomas and Drew Rom on the 40-man, and either would be a candidate to replace Wainwright in the rotation. Thomas, a 25-year-old left-hander, is in the midst of his third season at Triple-A and should be ready to make his MLB debut. Rom, whom the Cardinals acquired in the Jack Flaherty trade, made a strong first impression in his first start for Triple-A Memphis. The 23-year-old went five innings, giving up a single earned run and striking out 10.

Matz will be missed in the Cardinals rotation, but ultimately, the team has no reason to rush him back from the IL. Their 52-66 record has them firmly out of the postseason picture, and they have the depth to get by without him. He is under contract through 2025, and the team’s priority will be getting him back to full health for 2024.

It is certainly a good idea to take things slow with a pitcher like Matz, who has dealt with a number of injuries throughout his career. The nine-year MLB veteran was attempting to finish his first-ever season without a stint on the injured list. This isn’t his first left lat strain, either; he spent 57 days on the IL with a lat strain in 2015.

The 32-year-old got off to a rough start in 2023, posting a 5.72 ERA in his first ten starts. His strikeout rate was down, his walk rate was up, and he was missing velocity on his sinker. The Cardinals moved him to the bullpen in late May, where he almost immediately turned things around. In 16 innings out of the ’pen, he had a 2.81 ERA and 3.65 SIERA. His strikeout rate remained low, but he got his walks in check and regained his missing velocity.

Matz returned to the rotation on July 9 and continued to succeed. He maintained his velocity while reducing his walk rate even further, pitching to a 1.86 ERA in seven starts. If he cannot return in 2023, his strong performance over those final seven starts puts him in a good position to earn a spot in the Cardinals rotation next spring.

NL Notes: Rockies, Matz, Winker, Brewers, Ziegler

By Mark Polishuk | July 24, 2023 at 10:37pm CDT

The Rockies’ injury-plagued season has extended into the club’s farm system, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding (via Twitter) reports that pitching prospects Gabriel Hughes, Jackson Cox, and Jordy Vargas will all undergo Tommy John surgeries this week. Dr. Keith Meister will perform all of the procedures, as well as the previously reported TJ surgery for veteran righy-hander Antonio Senzatela.

It’s a brutal setback for the three youngsters, all ranked by MLB Pipeline among the Rockies’ top 12 overall prospects, and Pipeline lists the trios as three of Colorado’s top four pitching prospects. Hughes was the 10th overall pick of the 2022 draft, Cox was a second-round pick in that same draft, and the 19-year-old Vargas was an international signing in 2021. Hughes was the furthest along of the trio since he made his Double-A debut this season, but now all three pitchers have been dealt a big setback in their young careers. Given the usual recovery timeline for Tommy John procedures, there’s a chance any of Hughes, Cox, or Vargas might be able to return late in the 2024 campaign, but it is likelier that the right-handers will all be sidelined until 2025.

Cardinals Select Kyle Leahy

By Darragh McDonald | July 6, 2023 at 2:10pm CDT

The Cardinals announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Kyle Leahy, with left-hander Matthew Liberatore optioned in a corresponding move. The club already had a vacancy on their 40-man roster after outfielder Óscar Mercado was designated for assignment earlier in the week.

Leahy, 26, cracks a big league roster for the first time and will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game. The righty was selected in the 17th round of the 2018 draft and worked primarily as a starter in the earlier portions of his professional career but has transitioned into more of a relief role of late.

He’s spent all of this year in Triple-A, tossing 51 innings over 28 outings, three of those being starts. He has a 4.06 ERA in that time, striking out 22.1% of batters faced against a 10% walk rate. He’ll now get to try his hand at getting outs at the major league level.

The option of Liberatore seems to open the door for lefty Steven Matz to return to the rotation, a possibility that was recently covered by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Matz had a rotation spot to begin the year but posted a 5.72 ERA through 10 starts and got moved to the bullpen. Since making the switch, he has a 2.81 ERA while Liberatore has posted a 6.75 for the year.

The Cards signed Matz to a four-year, $44MM deal going into 2022 but haven’t received much return on that investment yet. A shoulder impingement and a torn left MCL limited him to just 48 innings last year with a 5.25 ERA, which was followed by the aforementioned rough start here in 2023. But his recent work has been encouraging enough to get him back into the rotation.

The Cards have very little rotation certainty going forward as Adam Wainwright is set to retire after this year while each of Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty are impending free agents. That leaves Miles Mikolas and Matz as the core of next year’s rotation, with depth options like Liberatore and Dakota Hudson potentially in the mix. The club will undoubtedly pursue pitching at this year’s trade deadline and in the upcoming offseason but it would be a big help to them if Matz could get back on track in the second half of this year, with two seasons still remaining on that deal.

Cardinals Keeping Matthew Liberatore In Rotation, Steven Matz Working From Bullpen

By Anthony Franco | June 2, 2023 at 9:21pm CDT

The Cardinals are keeping left-hander Matthew Liberatore in their rotation, manager Oli Marmol informed the team’s beat this afternoon (relayed by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). St. Louis is officially moving Steven Matz to the bullpen for the time being as the club is returning to a five-man starting staff after briefly using a six-man rotation.

Liberatore has started two of three appearances since being recalled in the middle of May. He’s had middling results, allowing six runs with a 9:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 11 innings. The 23-year-old had pitched very well in Triple-A Memphis earlier in the year. Over eight outings, he had a 3.13 ERA. Liberatore fanned over 30% of batters faced in the minors and induced grounders on exactly half the batted balls he allowed.

In addition to those solid minor league results, the former first round draftee is working with improved raw stuff. He’s averaging 95.2 MPH on his fastball and 77.2 MPH on his curveball this season, each of which is up 2-3 ticks from last year. That hasn’t yet translated to more whiffs at the major league level but he’d gotten swinging strikes on an excellent 14% of his offerings in Triple-A.

Liberatore has impressed the organization enough to stick alongside Jordan Montgomery, Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas and Jack Flaherty in the rotation. That’s paired with a second straight down year for Matz, who heads to relief not even halfway through a four-year, $44MM free agent contract.

Matz logged only 48 innings in his first season as a Cardinal. A shoulder impingement and an MCL tear in his left knee combined to keep him to 15 outings. He posted a 5.25 ERA in that stretch thanks largely to an elevated home run rate but posted more encouraging strikeout and walk numbers. Matz had punched out 26.1% of opponents against a 4.8% walk rate. The Cards hoped those peripherals and better health would result in a bounceback 2023 showing.

That hasn’t materialized thus far. Matz’s homer rate has dropped but he hasn’t found better results. He’s posted a 5.72 ERA as a starter with his strikeout rate dropping to 19.4%. Opponents are hitting .324/.384/.505 in 232 plate appearances. The Cards turned to Matz for multi-inning relief for the first time on Monday. He tossed 2 2/3 frames of one-run ball with four punchouts and added an extra mile per hour to his fastball.

Marmol noted the club is hopeful Matz can pitch his way back into the rotation down the line. Injuries and/or struggles from Liberatore could open that door before too long. For now, though, the veteran southpaw will be available out of the bullpen. Matz is making $10MM this season and will collect respective $12MM salaries from 2024-25.

Cardinals Notes: O’Neill, Matz, Edman, Suarez

By Steve Adams | May 25, 2023 at 11:44am CDT

Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill has been out for three weeks with a lower back strain, and it’s taking longer than expected for the 27-year-old to get back on track. The original hope was that he could go on a minor league rehab assignment last weekend, but manager Oli Marmol said on Monday this week that O’Neill hadn’t progressed to the point where that could happen. MLB.com’s John Denton tweets that O’Neill resumed baseball activity yesterday but only in the form of light swings off a tee.

It’s not yet clear when O’Neill will head out on that rehab assignment, but it’s fair to say his absence will be lengthier than originally expected. The mounting scope of his absence is notable in multiple facets. First and foremost, it deprives the Cards of a potential high-end source of power. Health troubles have dogged O’Neill over the past two seasons, but as recently as 2021 he clubbed 34 home runs and swiped 15 bases while batting .286/.352/.560 in 537 plate appearances.

O’Neill’s absence also gives the Cardinals some additional runway to look at younger talent. Twenty-four-year-old Alec Burleson hasn’t logged everyday at-bats but has frequently remained in the lineup through some struggles, in part due to both O’Neill and Dylan Carlson currently residing on the injured list. Burleson has thus far mustered a rather punchless .258/.324/.290 batting line since O’Neill hit the IL, but it’s still valuable exposure to big league pitching for the promising slugger, who hit .331/.372/.532 in 470 Triple-A plate appearances last season.

From a larger picture standpoint, O’Neill’s injury further muddies the Cardinals’ outfield outlook as the summer trade season approaches. O’Neill and Marmol already had a public spat early this season after the manager suggested to the team’s beat writers that his outfielder hadn’t hustled at full effort when trying to score from second on a single to the outfield. O’Neill naturally disputed that notion and took exception to Marmol publicly airing his frustration.

The two have ostensibly put the issue behind them, but the Cardinals have a fairly well-documented battle for playing time in the outfield and O’Neill is only a year and a half away from reaching free agency. There’s been plenty of speculation about a potential trade, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that Cardinals brass could indeed look into potential trades of O’Neill in exchange for rotation help this summer.

O’Neill only hit .228/.283/.327 with a 34.3% strikeout rate in 99 plate appearances before being placed on the injured list. The longer he’s out, the less time he has to show he’s righted the ship — and the greater the concern for any potentially interested trade partners. Given his injury troubles and that diminished production prior to the injury, it’s not a given that O’Neill will even have sufficient trade value to net the Cardinals meaningful pitching help.

That need for starting pitching is due both to a lack of starters controlled beyond the current season and the 2023 struggles of some current rotation members. Chief among them is lefty Steven Matz, one of just two current starters (in addition to Miles Mikolas) signed beyond the current season. Matz inked a four-year, $44MM deal in free agency in the 2021-22 offseason and has struggled to remain healthy and to pitch well when on the field.

The 31-year-old Matz was torched for a 6.39 ERA through his first six starts this year but looked to be turning a corner when he held opponents to four earned runs over 15 1/3 innings in three starts from May 7 through May 19. A date with the Reds at Great American Ball Park yesterday proved otherwise, however, as Cincinnati jumped Matz for six runs on 11 hits and two walks in just four innings of work.

Matz’s 5.72 ERA in 10 starts is even higher than last year’s 5.25 mark (15 games, 10 of them starts), which came in a season that saw the southpaw battle shoulder and knee injuries. Denton further reports that while the Cardinals have used six starters during their current stretch of 19 games in 19 days — Matthew Liberatore is slated for his second start this weekend — they’ll drop back to a conventional five-man arrangement after their coming off-days. The 23-year-old Liberatore, who’s been excellent in eight Triple-A starts — could push the struggling Matz off the starting staff, at least on a temporary basis.

Turning from a pair of players who are currently mired in some struggles to one who’s trending in the other direction, Tommy Edman discussed a key part of his recent hot streak with Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The switch-hitting infielder has begun batting right-handed against certain right-handed pitchers whom he feels he can see better from that side of the plate. Rather than simply favoring the standard left-on-right and right-on-left platoon matchup, Edman is selectively favoring right-on-right matchups based on pitch shape, release point and other more granular data points — and thus far doing so with good success. He’s 5-for-14 with a pair of doubles and a triple in right-on-right matchups.

Edman elaborates on the finer details of his approach and how he selects which pitchers are best faced from which side of the plate. It’s a fascinating read from Goold with thoughtful quotes from both Edman and reigning NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt that’ll likely appeal to far more than just Cardinals fans. Edman’s fresh approach to switch-hitting makes sense in an era of increasingly specialized data, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see more switch-hitters begin looking into it — particularly if it continues working well for Edman.

Rounding out a smattering of Cardinals-related topics, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat tweets that lefty Andrew Suarez, who signed a minor league pact with the Cards after two-year run overseas (one KBO season, one NPB season), has an opt-out in his contract on June 1.

The 30-year-old Suarez has had an uneven showing in Triple-A Memphis so far, with a 5.08 ERA in 28 1/3 frames working as a multi-inning reliever. The bulk of the damage against him has come in three particularly tough outings, but Suarez has been scored upon in six of his 15 trips to the mound. He’s fanned 30 hitters in that time but also issued 13 walks, and his overall 22.9% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate are fairly pedestrian. Suarez had a nice rookie campaign with the 2018 Giants (4.49 ERA in 160 1/3 innings out of the rotation) and was outstanding in the KBO in 2021, but he struggled in Japan last season and hasn’t found his stride thus far in Memphis. He has a career 4.66 ERA in 202 2/3 big league innings.

Cardinals Activate Steven Matz, Place Jordan Hicks On 15-Day Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | September 17, 2022 at 5:28pm CDT

In between games of their doubleheader with the Reds today, the Cardinals activated left-hander Steven Matz from the 15-day injured list. Taking Matz’s spot on the 15-day IL is Jordan Hicks, as the right-hander has been sidelined by both arm fatigue and neck spasms. Hicks’ placement is retroactive to September 15.

After signing a four-year, $44MM free agent deal during the winter, Matz’s first season in St. Louis has largely been lost to injury — first a shoulder impingement, and then a torn left MCL suffered in his first game back aftr that prior IL stint. Given the initial concern following the MCL tear, it is somewhat remarkable that Matz is back at all in 2022, but he will be able to work out of the bullpen rather than as a fully built-up starting pitcher.

Beyond just the health woes, Matz’s misfortune extended to his work on the mound. Despite a very good 4.8% walk rate and 27.4% strikeout rate over his 42 2/3 innings of work this season, Matz has only a 5.70 ERA. His 3.13 SIERA is far more favorable, yet Matz hasn’t received much batted-ball luck, as evidenced by his .336 BABIP.

Those struggles will be just a memory, however, if Matz is able to contribute as a reliever for a Cardinals team that looks bound for the playoffs, thanks to an eight-game lead in the NL Central. Getting Matz in the bullpen may help make up for the loss of Hicks, who also missed about five weeks earlier this season due to a flexor strain.

Injuries have plagued Hicks in the past, including a Tommy John surgery in 2019 and a lengthy absence due to elbow soreness last season. His flexor strain this year ended the Cardinals’ experiment with Hicks as a starting pitcher, and while his advanced metrics are better since his move back to the bullpen, he has only a 4.50 ERA over 34 innings as a reliever, after posting a 5.47 ERA over 26 1/3 innings out of the rotation. It all adds up to a 4.92 total ERA, and one of the league’s worst (13.6%) walk rates. Between this performance and now the injury concern, it remains to be seen if the Cards will include Hicks on their postseason roster.

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