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Trade Market Notes: Pitchers, Shields, Hamels, Papelbon, Reds

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The much vaunted sellers market could soon favor buyers – at least for starting pitchers, observes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal figures GMs with players like Cole Hamels or Johnny Cueto should be motivated to act quickly. As he notes (tweet), Hamels and Cueto are already joined by Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake, Dan Haren, Mat Latos, and four Padres hurlers. Closer to the deadline, we could see Jeff Samardzija, Yovani Gallardo, and David Price join the trade block among others. If there is any point in the sellers’ favor, it’s that every club feels like it needs more pitching.

  • Agents prefer for their star players to be traded, tweets Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. Players with expiring contracts become ineligible for a qualifying offer. As we’ve seen in recent seasons, clubs can be very deliberate about signing a top free agent with a qualifying offer attached. The bonus pool rules instituted in the last collective bargaining agreement ensure that some teams will carefully guard their access to young talent rather than ink an expensive veteran.
  • A “rival evaluator” tells Buster Olney of ESPN (Insider only) that he expects the Padres to trade Shields. The source put the odds anywhere between 75 and 90 percent. Of course, that’s just the opinion of one anonymous source. Shields’ market is liable to be complicated, and I could see it extending into August.
  • In other Shields-related news, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune thinks it could be a mistake to trade the veteran righty. While the Padres may desire to get out from under his back-loaded deal, it would send a confusing signal to the next class of free agents. For what it’s worth, I think this could be overthinking it. The Padres don’t have the same stigma as the Marlins. The Friars could easily market such a trade as comparable to the Red Sox dump of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford.
  • Per Olney, multiple teams have engaged the Phillies regarding Hamels. Sources have also indicated that Jonathan Papelbon could be dealt very soon. Philadelphia has long been expected to dump pricey veterans at the deadline, but recent rumors have suggested the club could also stand pat until the offseason.

Rangers Unlikely To Land Cole Hamels

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Rumors connecting the Rangers to Phillies ace Cole Hamels have been circulating for months, dating back to Yu Darvish’s Tommy John surgery. However, a club source tells MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan that such an acquisition is improbable. “If we were going to do that trade, we would have already done it by now,” said Sullivan’s source. There’s currently “no traction” between the two clubs, Sullivan hears.

Similarly, when asked about the team’s approach to buying or selling at this year’s deadline, GM Jon Daniels told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram’s Jeff Wilson: “…I don’t think you’re going to see us on either extreme end. My mind-set is always wanting to add to the club and always wanting to win, but you’ve got to pay attention to the realities of the standings.”

The Rangers, according to Sullivan, dislike Hamels’ contract as well as the asking price in terms of prospects. Previous reports linking the two sides had noted that Philadelphia covets catching prospect Jorge Alfaro and outfield prospect Nomar Mazara, though Mazara’s stock, in particular, has risen in 2015. The 20-year-old is slashing .285/.361/.446 with 10 homers at Double-A in 2015, despite being quite young for the level. That strong play landed him 34th on Baseball America’s midseason Top 50 prospects list and as high as sixth on Keith Law’s new list a ESPN.com.

Two players who very well could become available, however, are Wandy Rodriguez and Carlos Corporan, Sullivan reports. Texas is open to moving Corporan and pairing Tomas Telis with Robinson Chirinos behind the dish. As for Rodriguez, multiple teams have told the Rangers that they consider the veteran lefty a fallback option if they’re unable to secure other targets in trades.

The fate of Yovani Gallardo, Sullivan writes, will be determined closer to the trade deadline. The Rangers won’t want to move him if they’re still in the hunt for the division title, but poor performances in pre-deadline matchups against the Angels and Astros could cause him to become available.

If Texas performs well in those two intra-division series, however, it does remain possible that Daniels and his staff will make some incremental moves to bolster the roster. Wilson lists a right-handed bat to balance out the lineup (noting that someone of Justin Upton’s caliber simply is not realistic) as well as another reliable reliever to pair with closer Shawn Tolleson and solid rookie setup man Keone Kela. Daniels himself mentioned earlier this week that the Rangers would pursue such targets.

Rosenthal On Padres, Rockies, Rollins, Rangers

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Here’s the latest from Ken Rosenthal, via a video at FOX Sports:

  • The Cubs and Astros would make sense as teams who could pursue the Padres’ starting pitching, Rosenthal suggests. The Padres would likely have interest in the Cubs’ collection of young middle infielders, and Astros manager A.J. Hinch used to work for the Padres.
  • The Rockies are open to trading Troy Tulowitzki but haven’t been aggressive in trying to do so, Rosenthal says. Nonetheless, the Rockies could have a huge impact as sellers if they chose, given that they have Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, John Axford and LaTroy Hawkins.
  • The Dodgers plan to give Jimmy Rollins “a long leash.” Rollins hasn’t hit well this year, but he’s been better this month (.286/.333/.464). Top prospect Corey Seager isn’t exceptional defensively, and if they went with him as a full-time starter, they’d likely feel they had to deal or release Rollins out of respect. That would leave them in a tough spot if Seager didn’t play well.
  • The Rangers could both sell and buy at the deadline, perhaps dealing Yovani Gallardo but acquiring fellow veteran starting pitcher Cole Hamels, who could then join Texas’ rotation for the next several years. They could also pursue less of a headline-grabbing route by simply pursuing relievers, as well as a hitter they could use against left-handed pitching.

Rosenthal On Napoli, Dodgers, Rangers

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Here’s the latest from Ken Rosenthal, via a pair of videos from FOX Sports:

  • It’s “difficult to imagine” Josh Hamilton will play for the Angels again given the team’s current dispute with him, Rosenthal says.
  • Mike Napoli of the Red Sox had an insurance policy that would have paid him a tax-free $10MM if he had failed to meet certain salary thresholds. Because he collected $8MM in incentives on his contract with the Red Sox in 2013, however, he did not need to file a claim.
  • With the addition of a Competitive Balance pick in their trade for Ryan Webb, the Dodgers now hold four of the first 74 picks of the draft in June, including one they got as compensation for losing Hanley Ramirez. The Dodgers will pick at No. 24, No. 35, No. 67 and No. 74.
  • The Rangers could be trade-deadline sellers, but they don’t have much to deal besides Yovani Gallardo, Rosenthal says. They don’t have enough middle-infield depth to trade Elvis Andrus unless they get another shortstop back.

Possible Qualifying Offer Players Who Could Be Dealt

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Next year’s free agent market contains plenty of players who could receive qualifying offers — David Price, Jordan Zimmermann, Jason Heyward, and others. Here’s a look at potential qualifying offer recipients who have the best chance of being traded this season, thus preventing them from receiving that designation.

At issue, of course, is draft pick compensation and forfeiture. A team extending a qualifying offer to a player receives a draft pick in return if the player signs elsewhere. The signing team also gives up a draft pick. But a player who has been traded in the season before he becomes a free agent can’t be extended a qualifying offer and thus isn’t attached to draft picks. That can be an important consideration for teams shopping for free agents, as we’ve seen in recent years in the cases of Kyle Lohse, Nelson Cruz, Ervin Santana, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales, whose markets have all shrunk in part because of the qualifying offer.

Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, Reds. The Reds are off to a 4-0 start but still aren’t that likely to contend, which means that Cueto and Leake could hit the free agent market this summer. Trading Cueto, in particular, would be a great way for the Reds to add to their collection of young talent. Leake might be somewhat trickier to trade, since the Reds’ return might not be worth that much more than the draft pick and negotiating leverage they would forgo by dealing him.

Ben Zobrist and Scott Kazmir, Athletics. Billy Beane’s trade for Zobrist this offseason was a somewhat surprising one to begin with. The Athletics could easily contend, but if they don’t, Beane seems unlikely to sit still, and finding a new home for Zobrist wouldn’t be difficult given his versatility. Kazmir is another possibility — if he performs at his 2014 levels, he could receive a qualifying offer if the A’s contend or be traded if they don’t.

Alex Gordon, Royals. The Royals haven’t discussed an extension with Gordon, who would undoubtedly be an attractive trade target if the Royals were to fall out of contention in the AL Central. They’re currently 4-0, however, and there’s still the matter of Gordon’s $12.5MM option. Exercising it would likely not be an optimal financial decision from Gordon’s perspective, but he’s expressed interest in doing so before. If he were to make clear to the Royals that he planned to do so, he almost certainly wouldn’t be a trade candidate.

Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy, Padres. San Diego gambled heavily this offseason on the Padres’ ability to win in 2015. If they don’t, A.J. Preller doesn’t seem like the sort of GM to hang onto two key players who are due to become free agents. One possibility if the Padres were to trade Kennedy or especially Upton would be to acquire big-league talent in return, much like the Red Sox did when they dealt Jon Lester last summer. That would enable the Padres to re-tool for 2016, when they’ll still control most of the players they acquired over the winter.

Yovani Gallardo, Rangers. The Brewers exercised what was effectively a $12.4MM 2015 option ($13MM minus a $600K buyout) before trading Gallardo to Texas. His market value likely is somewhere near the value of a qualifying offer, and extending him one wouldn’t be a bad idea for the Rangers if he performs well this season. They could easily trade him rather than doing that, although that might be somewhat difficult given all the higher-impact starters who might be available and the value that would disappear if the ability to extend Gallardo a qualifying offer were to vanish.

Jeff Samardzija, White Sox. The new-look White Sox are 0-4, and GM Rick Hahn has said he will be “nimble” in turning his attention to the future if the organization’s moves to contend this summer don’t work out. That might mean Samardzija could be traded for the third time in a year. He would likely command significant value on the trade market.

Chris Davis and Matt Wieters, Orioles. Davis and Wieters are worth watching, although it’s somewhat unlikely that they’re valuable enough to receive qualifying offers and that they become trade candidates. Davis had a down season in 2014, while Wieters continues to struggle with health problems (and there’s currently no timetable for his return from an elbow injury). If Davis and Wieters are productive and healthy, the Orioles could well contend, and thus it’s unlikely they’ll be traded. If they aren’t, they might not be qualifying offer candidates.

West Notes: Gallardo, Betancourt, Beachy

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The Rangers acquired Yovani Gallardo in the offseason with the idea that he’d be a mid-rotation starter, but with Yu Darvish’s injury and Derek Holland’s shoulder trouble, it looks like the team could depend on Gallardo to start Opening Day, MLB.com’s Tracy Ringolsby writes. It’s not as if Gallardo can’t handle the assignment, of course, only that Texas’ best laid plans have gone awry. “The guy started five straight Opening Days for Milwaukee,” says GM Jon Daniels. “But it’s not what we had in mind.” Here’s more from the West divisions.

  • Former closer Rafael Betancourt is competing for the last spot in the Rockies’ bullpen, Nick Groke of the Denver Post writes. Last year, the 39-year-old found himself rehabbing in rookie ball after having Tommy John surgery in 2013. That wasn’t an easy assignment for a longtime MLB veteran, either, given that the Rockies’ Grand Junction team is in the Pioneer League, a brutal league for travel. The Rockies re-signed Betancourt to a minor-league deal in the offseason. Groke notes that he’s competing against Brooks Brown, Tommy Kahnle and Jairo Diaz, all of whom have options.
  • Dodgers pitcher Brandon Beachy took another step toward returning from his own Tommy John surgery Tuesday, writes MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick. He threw off a mound, then had a long session in which he worked on his mechanics. The Dodgers signed Beachy in February to a one-year deal with an option, and Gurnick notes that it looks like he could return to action sometime around the All-Star break. The cost of the Dodgers’ option ranges from $3MM-$6MM and will depend on how much Beachy can pitch before the end of the season.

West Notes: Shields, Rangers, Saunders

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James Shields rejected a four-year, $80MM offer from the Giants before signing with the Padres for $5MM less, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman writes. The Giants rescinded the offer once they re-signed Jake Peavy, however, so by the time Shields actually signed, the Cubs and Marlins were probably the Padres’ top rivals for Shields. Shields’ agent, Page Odle, says his client received more than one offer with a higher average annual value than the one he ultimately accepted from the Padres, confirming that Shields’ desires to play near his home outside San Diego and to for a revamped Padres team were quite strong. Odle implies, though, that another factor might have been that the Giants’ offer simply came too early in the offseason, and that he and Shields wanted more time to make a decision. Odle also says he and Shields did not reject a $110MM offer, as had been reported last month. Here are more notes from the West divisions.

  • The Rangers have three pitchers in Yu Darvish, Yovani Gallardo and Neftali Feliz who look like they could be extension candidates, but the team has no plans to extend any of them during Spring Training, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan writes. “There is nothing in the works right now,” says GM Jon Daniels. Darvish is signed through 2017, but can become a free agent a year earlier if he wins a Cy Young award in one of the next two seasons or finishes between second and fourth in both of them. “Counterintuitively, I’m rooting for him to be able to void that last year,” says Daniels, suggesting that the year lost will be positive if Darvish performs well enough to finish at or near the top in Cy Young balloting in one or both of the next two seasons.
  • Manager Lloyd McClendon says the Mariners will use newly signed lefty Joe Saunders purely as a reliever, MLB.com’s Greg Johns tweets. The 33-year-old Saunders has pitched almost his entire career as a starter, but he made six relief appearances for the Orioles last season.

Pitching Notes: Brewers, Gallardo, Relief Market, Gregg

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  • The Brewers and Nationals seemed intriguing trade partners after their most recent moves, but Milwaukee did not ship out Yovani Gallardo with intentions of dealing for local product Jordan Zimmermann, according to a report from Jon Morosi of FOX Sports. Instead, the club will trust young righty Jimmy Nelson with a rotation spot for the coming year.
  • Meanwhile, the Rangers added Gallardo with hopes that he will throw well enough to warrant a longer-term relationship or, at least, a qualifying offer, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. It remains to be seen whether Gallardo will warrant a qualifying offer after the season, but he seems reasonably likely to receive and reject one. After all, the Brewers picked up his option this year at close to the QO rate and he will surely be looking for a long-term deal entering his age-30 season.
  • Much of the free agent market has been resolved, but right-handed relief remains an area with several options, including not only several former closers but also sturdy middle relief options such as Burke Badenhop. Among the teams with interest in building out their bullpens are the Red Sox, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Nationals, and Brewers, Rosenthal notes on Twitter.
  • Righty Kevin Gregg will put on a showcase today for around half of the league’s teams, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports on Twitter. Gregg, 36, had elbow chips removed in August but reportedly feels good and is hoping to sign soon. The 12-year MLB veteran was hit hard in just a dozen outings last year, but managed a 3.48 ERA over 62 frames in 2013 with the Cubs.

Rangers Acquire Yovani Gallardo

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The Rangers have acquired right-hander Yovani Gallardo from the Brewers. Going in return are a group of young players: infielder Luis Sardinas and righties Corey Knebel and Marcos Diplan. Milwaukee will pick up $4MM of Gallardo’s salary, which will rise from $13MM to $14MM by operation of a clause in his contract.

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

Gallardo brings plenty of value with him to a Rangers rotation that has several question marks coming off of a rough overall 2014. Though he’ll need to deliver all of it this season, as he qualifies for free agency after the year, Gallardo’s Texas roots could make him an extension candidate. He will not turn 29 until February. And he has had a nice run of gobbling up innings, lodging the sixth-most in the game over the last six years. Reuniting with his former pitching coach, Mike Maddux, probably does not hurt Gallardo’s outlook.

In terms of performance, Gallardo has had his ups and downs but is undoubtedly a quality arm. He registered a career-low 6.8 K/9 last year, though he posted career-bests with a 3.51 ERA and 2.5 BB/9. In terms of advanced statistics, the view was that 2014 was more of an average year for the veteran. His FIP (3.94), xFIP (3.64), and SIERA (3.78) were generally in line with his career norms.

For Milwaukee, the trade brings some much-needed young blood into the system and gave the team an opportunity to cash in on an expiring asset in Gallardo. While the trio of prospects that were acquired all come with questions, they also deliver talent and plenty of years of control, and should begin contributing in the immediate future.

Sardinas, 21, struggled in a 2014 season split between Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors (posting a .281 average in the minors, but with a .302 OBP and .364 OBP), but he was young for all three levels and still rates as one of the Rangers’ better young players. The question remains whether Sardinas can hit enough to become a MLB starter, or whether he will instead top out as a utility infielder. But of the three players in the deal, he is the only one to crack Baseball America’s top-ten list, with Knebel (17) and Diplan (22) landing further down the line.

On the other hand, Knebel makes an appearance in the eighth slot on MLB.com’s latest ranking of the pre-trade Texas rotation. Knebel, who came to the Rangers along with Jake Thompson in last summer’s Joakim Soria deal, was taken 39th overall in the 2013 draft an reached the bigs in 2014. The 23-year-old is a pure reliever, but was fairly dominant in the upper minors (2.18 ERA, 12.5 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 4.6 H/9) in 45 1/3 frames last year and showed the ability to miss big league bats with 11 strikeouts in his brief 8 2/3 inning stint.

MLB.com also saw Diplan as one of the Rangers’ twenty best young players, albeit barely. An undersized righty, the 18-year-old nevertheless landed a $1.3MM bonus as a July 2 player. He was effective last year in the Dominican Summer League, but remains a good distance from a major league roster and is far and away the most volatile asset in this deal.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post theorizes a Gallardo trade could make Milwaukee players for James Shields, noting the Brewers are in a strong position to make a big play as they will shed $47MM in salary, including Gallardo’s $13MM, after 2015 (Twitter links). This line of thinking is strengthened by Milwaukee’s dearth of MLB rotation depth as Doug Melvin also traded swingman Marco Estrada in November for Adam Lind. Outside of their current projected rotation (Kyle Lohse, Wily Peralta, Matt Garza, Mike Fiers, and Jimmy Nelson), only three other pitchers on the Brewers’ 40-man roster have started a Major League game and two of them, Tyler Thornburg (elbow) and Johnny Hellweg (Tommy John surgery), missed most of 2014 with injuries. A third, Will Smith (17 starts with the Royals from 2012-13) is slated to resume his setup role in the bullpen.

This should make for an interesting week in Milwaukee as the Brewers gear up for their annual fan fest “On Deck” next weekend. It was this time one year ago, the Brewers signed Garza to the largest free agent contract (four years, $50MM) in franchise history. A deal for Shields would shatter that mark. The Brewers, however, could decide to invest the Gallardo cost savings into strengthening their bullpen by re-signing Francisco Rodriguez, who saved 44 games for the club last year. This approach would allow Milwaukee to stretch Smith out during Spring Training creating that much needed rotation depth while preserving some payroll flexibility.

FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi were first to report that a deal involving Gallardo to Texas was in the works. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports first reported the return (via Twitter), while Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram added that money was also changing hands (via Twitter). SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo was first to tweet that the deal was done, and noted on Twitter that the Rangers were rumored to be closing in on adding a pitcher. Morosi reported the trade escalator in Gallardo’s contract, via Twitter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pitcher Notes: Scherzer, Gallardo, Santana

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The Nationals now might be the favorites to sign Max Scherzer, and that’s a bit surprising, given the quality of their existing rotation and the fact that they don’t seem likely to push their payroll to Dodgers/Yankees levels, Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post writes. By backloading the deal, though, the Nationals could keep their 2015 payroll reasonable, then be able to pay Scherzer higher salaries in later years, when several highly paid current players (Ian Desmond, Doug Fister and Denard Span among them) could be gone. The Nationals could also trade Jordan Zimmermann after acquiring Scherzer, netting them prospect talent and essentially replacing one top starter with another. Here are more notes on pitchers.

  • The Rangers are rumored to be close to acquiring Yovani Gallardo from the Brewers, and such a deal would make sense from Texas’ perspective, Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News writes. Gallardo would give the Rangers a needed veteran innings-eater without requiring a long-term commitment.
  • Johan Santana already has at least one offer after pitching two innings in the Venezuelan Winter League Tuesday, but it isn’t from the Twins, Darren Wolfson of 1500ESPN tweets. The 35-year-old Santana is attempting a comeback after having missed the 2013 and 2014 seasons due to shoulder and Achilles injuries.
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