Padres To Shut Down Chris Paddack
As expected, the Padres have brought an early end to star rookie Chris Paddack‘s season. The right-hander’s start against the Brewers on Tuesday will go down as his last of the year, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Paddack concluded his season in excellent fashion, tossing five innings of one-run, one-hit ball with nine strikeouts against a single walk in the Padres’ loss in Milwaukee. It was the fourth straight outstanding performance by the 23-year-old Paddack, who yielded a mere two earned runs and totaled 32 strikeouts versus four walks in his last four appearances – a 23 1/3-inning span.
After joining the Padres in a heist of a trade with the Marlins back in 2016, Paddack quickly rose up the ranks to become one of the game’s most coveted young arms. And though Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after switching organizations, it’s evident he’s all the way back at this point. The 2015 eighth-round pick amassed a professional-high 140 2/3 frames this year, notching a 3.33 ERA/3.96 FIP with 9.79 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9 in the process.
Now, with San Diego out of contention as the season winds to a close, the team understandably wants to preserve a hurler who could be a front-line starter for the long haul. The Padres’ playoff drought will sit at an embarrassing 13 years after this season, but if they’re going to return to relevance sometime soon, it seems likely Paddack will have quite a bit of say in it.
West Notes: Posey, Leclerc, La Stella, Padres
This has been a career-worst offensive season for Giants catcher Buster Posey, but the hip surgery the potential Hall of Famer underwent a year ago may be among the reasons for his decline at the plate, as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle observes. If so, there’s hope Posey will bounce back in 2020, when he’ll turn 33. “It’s at least a year before you get back closer to what you were. Hey, this guy wasn’t able to do much during the winter,” outgoing manager Bruce Bochy told Shea. “We had to watch his workload this spring, and we’ve done it during the season, to be honest.” If Posey doesn’t come close to revisiting his prior form early next year, it could give the Giants all the more reason to hasten the promotion of their No. 1 prospect, catcher Joey Bart, whom they chose second overall in the 2018 draft. Whenever Bart does arrive in San Francisco, he’ll have a tremendous mentor in Posey. “One of the greatest gifts you can give to a young player is to have his back and support him whenever he gets here and try to help him grow,” said Posey, who expresses a willingness in Shea’s piece (which is worth a full read) to eventually see more time at first base if necessary. The 2020 campaign will be the eighth season of a nine-year, $167MM contract for Posey, owner of a full no-trade clause.
- Rangers right-hander Jose Leclerc was one of baseball’s standout relievers in 2018, but this season got off to a horrific start for the 25-year-old. After he yielded 10 earned runs on 13 hits and eight walks (with 13 strikeouts) in 8 1/3 innings in April, the Rangers removed Leclerc from the closer’s role at the outset of May. Leclerc has since revived his season and regained the job, though, and odds are that he’ll enter 2020 as the Rangers’ go-to game-ending option, according to manager Chris Woodward (via Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram). “As of right now, yeah,” Woodward said when asked if Leclerc’s the in-house favorite to close next year. The presence of Leclerc – he of the 4.10 ERA/3.66 FIP with 13.15 K/9, 5.09 BB/9 and 13 saves on 17 tries over 63 2/3 innings – should enable the Rangers to focus on more pressing needs when the offseason arrives, Wilson writes.
- Injured Angels infielder Tommy La Stella was aiming for a mid-September return just a couple weeks ago, though he still hasn’t come back from the fractured right tibia he suffered July 3. Now, with just two weeks left in the Angels’ season, there’s still no timetable for a comeback, Bill Ladson of MLB.com relays. It seems possible we’ve seen the last of La Stella in 2019, which would put him in company with a few notable out-for-the-year Angels in Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton. The 30-year-old La Stella unexpectedly earned the first All-Star nod of his career before landing on the IL, on the strength of a .300/.353/.495 line with 16 home runs and 2.2 fWAR in 312 plate appearances.
- Padres catcher Luis Torrens hasn’t played in the majors since 2017, the season after the club acquired him during the Rule 5 Draft. Torrens, then 21, was clearly in over his head that year. He batted a meager .163/.243/.203 in 139 plate appearances in the bigs, but the Padres still haven’t given up on him a couple years later. And Torrens performed so well at the Double-A level this season that he’ll be in the mix to win a major league spot next spring, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune suggests. Not only has Torrens hit .300/.373/.500 with 15 homers in 397 trips to the plate this year, but his defensive progress has impressed the San Diego organization. “The video I see, his energy behind the plate is incredible,” said Padres bench coach Rod Barajas, a former MLB catcher. “He’s a spark plug back there.” It seems Torrens will be part of a battle that will also consist of Francisco Mejia, Austin Hedges and Austin Allen next spring. In the meantime, he’ll start “a few” games in the majors before this season ends, per manager Andy Green.
Early Trade Deadline Re-Assessment: NL West
It has only been about six weeks, so it’s too soon to judge with finality how this year’s trade deadline maneuvers will play out. That said, we’re already most of the way through the period — the regular season portion, at least — for which rental players were acquired. Even players with future control are usually added first and foremost for their immediate contributions (though there are some exceptions). It’d be awfully premature to say anything conclusive about the prospect side of any deals, but we do now have some additional information with which to work.
So, that’s why we’re going to take a glance back over our shoulders at the moves (and major non-moves) that organizations made in the run-up to this year’s trade deadline. We already covered the AL Central, NL Central, AL East, NL East, and AL West. Now we’ll finish things off in the NL West …
Dodgers
With visions of Felipe Vazquez as the trade deadline approached, many fans likely came away thoroughly underwhelmed by the Dodgers’ efforts. But if making that deal would’ve cost Gavin Lux, then he wouldn’t be in the lineup right now.
Plus, the Dodgers are awfully good even without another high-end relief arm. The bullpen has some big questions, to be sure, but the L.A. organization is loaded with starting pitching options that can all be deployed in various ways come October. There’s no question that there’s a possibility we’ll look back and think the Dodgers should have done more, but it’s likewise impossible to argue with the organization’s process or results in recent years.
So, what did the team do? On deadline day, the headliner was … trading for lefty reliever Adam Kolarek. That seemed ho-hum, but he has been quite useful, allowing just one earned run in 10 1/3 innings over 21 appearances. Yep, he’s being utilized judiciously, but that makes sense. Kolarek has been bombed by righties this year but has held opposing southpaws to a meager .183/.227/.269 batting line. The player sent out to get him, outfielder Niko Hulsizer, acquired in return, didn’t really have enough action to change his outlook in any meaningful way.
Otherwise, the moves were even lower-stakes arrangements. Utilityman Kristopher Negron has chipped in well since his acquisition and the Dodgers probably won’t miss Daniel Castro, who hasn’t hit much in the upper minors and wasn’t likely to play a significant role this year or next. The Dodgers haven’t gotten anything from Tyler White, but also probably haven’t seen anything from Andre Scrubb to cause major regret from that trade. Jedd Gyorko hasn’t hit well since coming over, but that didn’t cost much either. Young righty Jeffry Abreu, sent in the swap along with the contract of Tony Cingrani, hasn’t yet thrown competitive innings with the Cardinals. The Dodgers also picked up international spending capacity and cash considerations in the deal.
Diamondbacks
The major move came at the very last minute, with the D-Backs parting with veteran righty Zack Greinke. It’s hard to imagine that free agent contract having a softer landing. In addition to shedding much of the remaining financial obligation, the Arizona organization added four high-quality prospects.
Only one of those new players, infielder Josh Rojas, has ascended to the majors. The 25-year-old owns only a .232/.318/.337 slash in 107 trips to the plate, but his monster season in the upper minors still makes him an intriguing player going forward. The other three were even more highly regarded talents. Slugger-in-training Seth Beer struggled after the swap but still holds ample promise. Talented righties Corbin Martin and J.B. Bukauskas will be looking to bounce back, respectively, from Tommy John surgery and a bit of a down season in the results department.
The Snakes figured to take a step back sans Greinke, but they actually managed to stay relevant in the Wild Card race. Young righty Zac Gallen has had a big say in that, having thrown 43 2/3 innings of 2.89 ERA ball since arriving in exchange for touted infielder Jazz Chisholm. That’s immensely promising for the Arizona organization, which will hope Gallen can sustain his breakout year. On the other side of that deal, it’s fair to note that the 21-year-old Chisholm put his struggles behind him to finish with a strong .284/.383/.494 (156 wRC+) run after going into the Miami system.
With a continued eye to making sound baseball decisions for sustainable competitiveness, the Diamondbacks finally hammered out a swap for sturdy but unexciting starter Mike Leake. The veteran righty had a no-trade clause and personal reasons to prefer pitching in Arizona, which may have helped the Snakes work out a solid deal that cost only $6MM in total salary obligations and Jose Caballero. The young infielder struggled to a .256/.339/.333 batting line at the High-A level after the deal.
The D-Backs got some cash in exchange for catcher John Ryan Murphy, but otherwise that was it for mid-summer roster moves. It’s easy to like the overall slate of changes, though we’ll need to track them to see how it all shakes out over the long haul.
Giants
Also busy were the Giants, who faced a tricky deadline situation owing to a hot streak that had the club in Wild Card contention. Ultimately, the team decided not to sell of quality lefties Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith — each of whom might have brought back significant returns. The former is sure to receive a qualifying offer and the latter is a candidate as well, so there are still some paths to achieving future value, but the organization knew it was making some sacrifices by holding on to these pitchers.
The San Francisco denizens did move quite a few other hurlers. Chief among them was righty Sam Dyson (link), who will be eligible for arbitration one final time in 2020. Unfortunately, he has struggled badly in just a dozen appearances with the Twins and is now under consideration for a season-ending shoulder procedure. That doesn’t look great for Minnesota, though questions remain on the other side of the swap as well. Power-hitting outfielder Jaylin Davis laid waste to Triple-A but has struggled in his first, brief foray into the majors. We won’t know for quite some time what the Giants really have in young pitching prospects Kai-Wei Teng and Prelander Berroa.
The well-timed reemergence of southpaw Drew Pomeranz allowed the Giants to package him with power righty Ray Black in a deal that landed long-lauded infield prospect Mauricio Dubon. Pomeranz has been useful in Milwaukee but is a pure rental; Black still hasn’t shown his big heat can consistently retire MLB hitters. Meanwhile, the 25-year-old Dubon has turned in an impressive .302/.327/.547 run in his first 55 plate appearances at the game’s highest level. That showing could make him the favorite to handle second base next year in San Francisco. The club made way by dropping veteran Scooter Gennett, who had been acquired as a buy-low replacement for Joe Panik.
The other significant reliever swap involved high-priced veteran Mark Melancon. It was surprising to see the Giants shed all of the veteran’s remaining salary obligations. He has a strong 20:2 K/BB ratio in 15 2/3 frames since the deal, along with ten saves, but hasn’t consistently kept runs off the board. The Giants have to be pleased with what they saw from the player they added in that swap. Young righty Tristan Beck threw 35 2/3 innings of 2.27 ERA ball, with 9.3 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9, for the club’s High-A affiliate.
Rounding things out for the Giants, the team took a shot on outfielder Joe McCarthy, who has not yet figured things out at Triple-A. The cost was younger prospect Jacob Lopez, who is still in the low minors but generated solid results this year.
Padres
The deadline turned out to be all about one man: Taylor Trammell. Long considered an uber-talented outfielder, the former first-round pick was plainly targeted by the Padres. It took a complicated, three-team arrangement to make it happen, but the San Diego organization now has a player that it views as the center fielder of the future.
Trammell remains an unfinished product. He wrapped up the season on a hot streak but ultimately carried only a .229/.316/.381 slash in his 133 Double-A plate appearances after the swap. The Friars are betting on their ability to finish off his development and surely hope they bought at a relative low point.
Making the deal cost the Pads a few quality assets. Young outfielder Franmil Reyes hasn’t yet settled in with his new team, posting 56 strikeouts in 161 plate appearances, but he comes with loads of cheap control and ample potential. Southpaw Logan Allen has mostly struggled this year, but he is another player that could soon be a quality MLB contributor. The Padres also parted with far-away youngster Victor Nova. Clearly, the San Diego end of this swap will take many years to evaluate in full.
It was otherwise a fairly quiet deadline period. The Padres got nothing from Carl Edwards Jr. after adding him from the Cubs; he seems a non-tender candidate this fall. Meanwhile, lefty Brad Wieck has been a surprising contributor in Chicago since that swap was completed. The 27-year-old has eleven strikeouts without a walk in 5 1/3 appearances. Also heading out of San Diego was righty reliever, Phil Maton, who has thus far been useful but unremarkable in Cleveland.
Rockies
Typically, when a team enters a season intending to contend and finds itself buried by the trade deadline, there’s a sell-off. Not so in Colorado — and for good reason. The club just didn’t have any assets that made sense to move. The higher-priced veterans haven’t performed well enough to generate appreciable cost savings, while the club’s core talent can’t be shipped out without leaving un-fillable holes. While some Charlie Blackmon explorations reportedly took place, that never seemed likely to result in a move and in the end fizzled out.
So … all we’re left with was this stirring blockbuster with the Yankees: the acquisition of right-hander Joe Harvey for minor league left-hander Alfredo Garcia. Harvey is a MLB-ready reliever who has shown some strikeout ability in the minors, though his initial transition to the highest level of the game hasn’t been especially promising. Garcia generated good results on both sides of the swap, but he’s a low-A player who is a long way from the bigs.
West Notes: Richards, Trout, Piscotty
When the Padres signed erstwhile Angels ace Garrett Richards to a two-year, $15.5MM deal in December, expectations were that Richards would return in time to lead their young staff in 2020–and, if everything broke right in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, that Richards might squeeze in a few September frames. Apparently, that vision is coming into focus now, as the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee reports that Richards is expected to take the ball in his club’s matchup with the Brewers on Monday (link). “Getting him healthy on the mound, competing at the big-league level is going to set him up for success next year,” Padres manager Andy Green told Acee. “We look at it like get him on the mound, make sure he knows going into the offseason he’s ready to go and he doesn’t have a question in the back of his mind — that he’s stared down a few major league lineups and he’s been back on the big stage and he’s ready to go.”
Though Richards will be limited to 60-65 pitches on Monday, it will surely be a welcome sight for a San Diego team short on battle-tested rotation options. Aside from Richards, the club will be heading into 2020 with a collection of starters who remain largely unestablished. Though fronted by impressive rookie Chris Paddack, San Diego’s current rotation features recent returnees from injury (Dinelson Lamet), unproven projects (Ronald Bolanos), and stagnating sophomores (Eric Lauer, Joey Lucchesi). Though the 31-year-old Richards, who has been limited to 138 2/3 frames since the beginning of 2016, could hardly be called a rotational stalwart, he did hold a 3.15 ERA over his last five seasons of pitching–a number which was good enough for third-lowest in the American League during that timeframe.
More notes from just right of the Pacific…
- Angels outfielder Mike Trout was out of today’s lineup as he continues to deal with a foot issue, and MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger relays that the MVP candidate will likely be limited to DH duty in the immediate future (link). Trout underwent a procedure to address a neuroma in his foot last week, and his continued presence in the Los Angeles lineup is largely a question of pain tolerance. The Angels have already been eliminated from playoff contention, but Trout will, hopefully, be able to return to action–if only to stave off a possible MVP run from players like DJ LeMahieu and Alex Bregman.
- Athletics outfielder Stephen Piscotty is ramping up activity, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Slusser reports that Piscotty, who has been sidelined with an ankle injury since Aug. 25th, was taking batting practice with the team today (link). He had better hurry in his recovery–Oakland entered play today with just a .5-game lead for the top spot in the American League Wild Card race. Piscotty, 28, holds a .252/.312/.416 slash this year in 389 plate appearances, representing roughly league-average offensive output (95 wRC+).
NL Notes: Dodgers, Brewers, Cubs, Padres
It’s “very unlikely” outfielder Alex Verdugo will return for the Dodgers’ National League Division Series matchup, manager Dave Roberts told Ken Gurnick of MLB.com and other reporters Friday (Twitter links). The rookie originally landed on the injured list Aug. 6 with a right oblique strain, but a back injury has slowed him of late. Meantime, southpaw Rich Hill – who’s dealing with a strained left MCL – will undergo an MRI on Monday. It seems iffy at best that Hill will avoid a lengthy absence, as a strained left MCL previously shelved him for the first month of the season. The injury-prone 39-year-old then missed almost two months with a forearm problem. His start Thursday, when he recorded just two outs, was his first since June 19.
Here’s more from the National League…
- Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel provided a couple injury updates Friday on the Brewers, who are now a game behind the NL’s second wild-card position (Twitter links). Top starter Brandon Woodruff is still on track to return in the next week, but it’s unclear whether he’ll start or relieve. Woodruff will throw a bullpen session Saturday as he continues working back from the oblique strain he suffered July 21. And catcher Manny Pina, out with a concussion since Sept. 5, isn’t recovering as quickly as the team hoped he would, according to manager Craig Counsell. The Brewers have “to stack some good days in a row” for Pina before he’s capable of returning, Counsell said. Milwaukee has been in fine shape behind the plate without Pina, of course, as it boasts one of the game’s elite catchers in Yasmani Grandal.
- The Cubs promoted executive Jason McLeod to senior vice president of player personnel, which could keep him in their front office for at least a little while longer. But McLeod said this week that his goal is to run a team’s baseball department, per Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (subscription required). “I do aspire to someday lead an organization,” said McLeod, who has been on GM-needy clubs’ radars in the past. He interviewed for that position with the Giants last year, though they instead went on to hire Farhan Zaidi as their president of baseball operations.
- Padres rookie Chris Paddack will make at least one more start this season, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweets. Shutting Paddack down for the year looked like a possibility after he threw six scoreless innings against the Cubs on Wednesday. The rookie standout, 23, has now racked up 135 2/3 innings this season, easily surpassing the previous professional high of 90 he set in 2018 as a minor leaguer.
West Notes: A’s Ballpark, Simmons, Dahl, Paddack
The Athletics‘ plans to build their new ballpark in the Howard Terminal area took a positive step forward when state officials unanimously voted that the State Lands Commission has the authority to decide whether a new stadium “is an appropriate use of the land,” Sarah Ravani of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Several other steps remain before the project is officially a go, such as two separate bills that have to be approved by California governor Gavin Newsom, plus an environmental impact report that should be completed by the end of 2019. If all goes well, the current timeline has construction underway in 2021, with an eye towards Opening Day 2023.
More items from around the AL and NL West….
- It’s been a tough season for Andrelton Simmons, who has battled ankle injuries while hitting .256/.301/.355 over 366 plate appearances. The timing of this down year is particularly poor for a shortstop who could well have been a prime extension candidate this winter, since Simmons is a free agent after the 2020 season. Now, however, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register wonders if the Angels could wait “until at least the middle of next season before deciding if they want to sign him to an extension,” to see if Simmons can rebound or if he is starting to decline. Simmons turned 30 just last week, and while he has never been a truly dangerous bat, he had at least posted above-average run production (as per wRC+) in both 2017 and 2018. Simmons also had the worst defensive season of his eight-year career, though “worst” is relative when discussing arguably the best defensive shortstop of all time — Simmons still posted +11 Defensive Runs Saved and +11.7 UZR/150. Trading Simmons seems like an unlikely option, though Fletcher wonders if the Angels could explore an extension that could overwrite his current 2020 salary ($15MM) and instead spread that money out over the length of the new deal in order to free up extra payroll space for Los Angeles to pursue pitching this offseason. Any extension talks, of course, would hinge on Simmons’ own thoughts, as he (like so many players did last spring) might prefer security now rather than deal with potential labor uncertainty at the end of the next collective bargaining contract. Then again, Simmons might likely feel he’s leaving money on the table by taking an extension in the wake of a down season, and might prefer to instead rebuild his value in 2020.
- It’s becoming more likely that Rockies outfielder David Dahl won’t play again this year, Nick Groke of The Athletic tweets. Even though Dahl’s progressing in his recovery from the ankle sprain he suffered Aug. 2, manager Bud Black admitted he’s “running out of time” for a 2019 return. Regardless of whether Dahl does come back, this will go down as yet another injury-limited season for the 25-year-old, who has combined for only 240 games since he debuted in 2016 (he didn’t play at all in ’17). A healthy Dahl, to his credit, has been an effective hitter – he got off to a .302/.353/.524 start with 15 HRs in 413 trips to the plate this year before landing on the shelf.
- Like Dahl, Padres righty Chris Paddack‘s season could also be done, as AJ Cassavell of MLB.com observes. Paddack’s not injured, but the Padres have been monitoring the former Tommy John patient’s workload in his rookie campaign. The prized 23-year-old fired six shutout frames against the Cubs on Wednesday, raising his 2019 innings total to 135 2/3 – easily the most he has thrown in a professional season. Whether or not Paddack takes the mound again this year, this season’s sure to go in the books as a resounding success for him. Paddack has logged a 3.38 ERA/3.99 FIP with tremendous strikeout and walk rates (9.55 K/9 , 1.99 BB/9) in his first MLB action.
Latest On Garrett Richards
Having scored a 10-year, $300MM contract, Manny Machado was easily the Padres’ biggest free-agent signing last winter. Long before that addition, though, the Padres made headlines by awarding right-hander Garrett Richards a two-year, $15.5MM guarantee.
The Padres handed Richards his deal knowing they likely wouldn’t get much from the former Angel this season after he underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2018. Indeed, with little time left this year, Richards hasn’t yet made his Padres debut. It appears to be on the way, however. Richards will throw a bullpen session Saturday, and if he gets through that unscathed, he’ll likely take the hill during San Diego’s series in Milwaukee next week, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports.
At 67-77, the Padres have sewn up their 13th consecutive season without a playoff berth. But if they’re going to make a long-awaited return to contention a year from now, a healthy Richards could be a key factor. The problem is that good health has been hard to come by for Richards, whom arm injuries have consistently dogged over the past few seasons. The 31-year-old hasn’t logged a full season since 2015, and has only amassed 138 2/3 innings dating back to the 2016 campaign. When he has been able to take the ball, though, Richards has served as a more-than-respectable big league starter, evidenced by his 3.54 ERA/3.62 FIP with 7.8 K/9, 3.24 BB/9 and a 52.5 percent groundball rate across 744 2/3 innings.
Going forward, the Padres could certainly use the type of production that Richards has typically offered. On paper, he’d fit nicely into a group that has gotten solid numbers this year from Chris Paddack, Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer and Dinelson Lamet. San Diego hasn’t found a quality option to fill out its starting staff, however, as Cal Quantrill, Matt Strahm and Nick Margevicius have each failed to truly seize hold of a rotation spot. If the team has its way, Richards won’t encounter that type of difficulty when he’s finally ready to join its staff – a unit that could also include elite prospect MacKenzie Gore in the near future.
NL Injury Notes: Kimbrel, Verdugo, Renfroe, Taijuan
Injured Cubs closer Craig Kimbrel is progressing toward a return, but that won’t come until at least the weekend, Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com reports. The big-money in-season signing has been on the injured list with right elbow inflammation since Sept. 1, making him eligible to come back as early as Thursday. Kimbrel’s IL placement came on the heels of yet another disappointing performance, in which he yielded three earned runs on two hits (including a homer) in two-thirds of an inning. He’s one of the greatest closers ever, which is why the Cubs guaranteed him $43MM over three years, yet Kimbrel hasn’t resembled his dominant self this season. While the 31-year-old has converted 13 of 15 save opportunities, he owns a bloated 5.68 ERA with 12.32 K/9 against 5.21 BB/9, and has given up just under three HRs per nine across 19 innings of work.
- The Dodgers clinched their seventh straight NL West title Tuesday, but they’re also dealing with some unwelcome news: Outfielder Alex Verdugo isn’t nearing a return, per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. An oblique strain forced the rookie to the IL back on Aug. 6, but he suffered a back injury on a rehab assignment and will sit out “for at least a few days,” Castillo writes. Verdugo has been a valuable contributor this year, having slashed .294/.342/.475 with 2.2 fWAR in 377 plate appearances, but the loaded Dodgers have carried on fine without him thus far.
- Padres manager Andy Green isn’t willing to guarantee that banged up outfielder Hunter Renfroe will play again this season, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune relays. For now, Renfroe’s going to rest on account of right elbow and ankle problems. “Hunter has battled through a lot this second half,” said Green, who added, “There have been a number of days he was unavailable and we’ve managed not to talk about it.” We covered Renfroe’s significant second-half struggles earlier Tuesday, though it now seems possible health problems have been a major cause for his summer slump.
- Injuries have prevented Diamondbacks right-hander Taijuan Walker from taking a big league mound since April 2018, but he said Tuesday (via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic) he’s still hoping to make an appearance this year. The 27-year-old sat out the majority of 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and has dealt with shoulder troubles this season. However, he threw his first bullpen session in four months Tuesday and came out unscathed. Walker’s absence is among the reasons the Diamondbacks’ starting staff has been shaky this year, though the club has nonetheless stayed in the National League wild-card race.
Hunter Renfroe’s Second-Half Decline
Just a couple months ago, Padres outfielder Hunter Renfroe looked like a legitimate breakout player. As a result, the defensively adept slugger drew plenty of trade interest leading up to the deadline, though the Padres understandably elected against parting with him. This season has since become about looking forward for the out-of-contention Padres, who are reportedly set to count on Renfroe as one of their main outfielders again in 2020. There are clear reasons for that – including Renfroe’s 31 home runs, whopping 22 Defensive Runs Saved, and his three remaining seasons of team control – but they’ll need the 27-year-old to get off the schneid at the plate in 2020 to increase their chances of breaking a seemingly interminable playoff drought.
Although his HR total is prodigious, Renfroe has only been a middling offensive performer this year, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. His .222/.290/.498 line in 462 trips to the plate has led to an unspectacular 99 wRC+. Despite his defensive excellence, Renfroe’s so-so offense has limited him to 1.9 fWAR, essentially making him an average player. There’s value in that, especially on a cheap salary, though Renfroe looked as if he was destined for better not long ago. When the All-Star break rolled around in mid-July, Renfroe had already put up 2.4 fWAR with 27 homers and a 130 wRC+ in 289 plate appearances. Since then, however, he has dipped to a dismal .169/.260/.291 line with four HRs across 173 PA. Renfroe’s minus-0.5 fWAR during the second half of the season ties him for the fourth-worst mark in the game.
If you’re wondering what caused the destruction of Renfroe’s offensive numbers, it starts with a massive downturn in power – evidenced in part by the noticeable decrease in HRs. Renfroe boasted a ridiculous .361 ISO at the break, but the number has plummeted to a nonthreatening .122 during the second half of the season. A mammoth decline in impactful contact is an obvious cause. According to FanGraphs, Renfroe posted a hard-hit rate of 52.1 percent over the first couple months of the year. The figure has fallen to 33.7 since the All-Star Game, while Renfroe has made far less contact in general and seen his strikeout rate soar from 27.3 percent to an even 37.0.
Health may be factoring into Renfroe’s late-season issues, as manager Andy Green said Tuesday (via Dennis Lin of The Athletic) that his production has “suffered because of” a sore elbow and a problematic ankle. Likewise, it hasn’t helped Renfroe’s cause that pitchers have somewhat changed their approach when he has come to the plate, having thrown more sliders against him as the season has progressed, per FanGraphs. Renfroe’s especially vulnerable when dealing with breaking pitches, according to Statcast, which credits him with a .237 weighted on-base average/.219 expected wOBA against those offerings.
By Statcast’s standards, Renfroe’s overall output has been something of a mixed bag. He ranks in the league’s 66th percentile or better in exit velocity and Statcast’s Outs Above Average defensive metric, but his other numbers aren’t as encouraging. For one, Renfroe’s expected batting average – .218 – dwells toward the bottom of the league (third percentile). And his xwOBA (.310; 27th percentile) also doesn’t offer much encouragement, suggesting he has actually been fortunate to hit for a real wOBA (.328) that’s more mediocre than spectacular.
In spite of his second-half woes, it’s evident San Diego views Renfroe as a player who could be part of the solution as it seeks a return to relevance. But if Renfroe’s really going to emerge as a high-end complement to the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado in 2020, the Padres will need the player who showed up during the first half of this season to reappear going forward. If healthy, perhaps he will.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NL Notes: Thor, Mattingly, Panda, Padres
Though he has remained adamant about his desire to remain with the Mets, that doesn’t mean Noah Syndergaard is content with every aspect of his relationship with the team. Joel Sherman and Kevin Kernan of the New York Post reported today that the big righty has been displeased all season with throwing to primary catcher Wilson Ramos, preferring instead reserve Tomas Nido (or perhaps third-stringer Rene Rivera). Thor’s wrath has spawned a full-blown BatteryMateGate involving lengthy internal meetings and multiple engagements with the media. Ultimately, Mets manager Mickey Callaway and GM Brodie Van Wagenen explained that the club has to take into account more than the preferences of a given pitcher. In addition to being highly compensated and well-respected, Ramos is one of the team’s best hitters. While none of the organizational leaders cracked the whip on the star hurler, they didn’t indicate any inclination to bend on the topic. Callaway put it in particularly blunt terms: “You can’t make everybody happy and it’s not about making guys happy. It’s about winning at this point.” Whether this matter will carry over into the future, if not even impact Syndergaard’s long-term status in New York, remains to be seen.
More from the National League …
- Expectations of a rough season for the Marlins have been fulfilled in full, though there have been some bright spots along the way. With relatively few trade pieces in the stable, it may be a fairly quiet offseason in Miami. But one area that is sure to receive attention is the coaching staff. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald provides some updates on the status of skipper Don Mattingly, who still hasn’t received any indication of the organization’s intentions. It seems that there’s a legitimate chance Mattingly will be retained, though the team may not want to pay him at or over his current $2.5MM salary. Plus, as the veteran baseball man notes, it’s not just a one-way street. Mattingly says he expects discussions to occur with some rapidity.
- It seems that Giants infielder Pablo Sandoval will have more to recover from than your standard-issue Tommy John procedure. As Hank Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports (Twitter link), Sandoval says that his doctors found damage beyond what they anticipated when they opened his elbow. The precise details of the work that was done, and how it’ll impact his recovery, aren’t yet known. Sandoval will head to the open market at the conclusion of the season. The 33-year-old’s season-ending procedure will limit his marketability, but he did turn in a strong showing with 296 plate appearances of .268/.313/.507 hitting and 14 home runs.
- The Padres continue to feature numerous possibilities and numerous questions in their outfield mix, as AJ Cassavell of MLB.com writes. The certainties? Per Cassavall, Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe can be written into the lineup for 2020 … on the short side of the platoon, at least. Needless to say, that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement of stability. Wil Myers, Josh Naylor, Franchy Cordero, Travis Jankowski, and Nick Martini represent options, but only that. It’s possible to imagine any number of possible roster maneuvers over the course of the coming winter; it’s equally plausible that most or all of the existing slate of candidates will simply do battle in camp.