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Trade Candidates: Top 5 Hitters By xwOBA

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Plenty of major league hitters are trade candidates leading up to the July 31 deadline, but which ones truly stand out as players who could help a team’s offense down the stretch? Let’s take a look at the cream of the crop (minimum 100 plate appearances), with help from the enormous trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams put together last week and Statcast’s expected weighted-on base average metric…

Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays: expected weighted-on base average: .387; real wOBA: .332

  • Smoak’s .211/.350/.406 line (106 wRC+) isn’t pretty, nor does the impending free-agent first baseman play a premium position. However, judging by the 55-point gap between his xwOBA and wOBA, the switch-hitting Smoak has been one of the unluckiest batters in baseball this year and someone whose presence could be a late-season boon for a playoff-level team. He’s also sporting an unfortunate .219 batting average on balls in play, down from a lifetime .267, and has amassed almost as many unintentional walks (49) as strikeouts (60).

Franmil Reyes, OF, Padres: xwOBA: .379; real wOBA: .350

  • Unlike Smoak, Reyes comes with several seasons of control. The 24-year-old won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2021 or free agency until the conclusion of 2024, so prying Freyes from the up-and-coming Padres wouldn’t be an easy task. While Reyes’ work in right field hasn’t been great this year (minus-6 Defensive Runs Saved, neutral Ultimate Zone Rating), he has established himself as an above-average offensive player dating back to his 2018 debut. This season, the right-handed slugger’s slashing .253/.307/.540 (115 wRC+) with the majors’ seventh-most home runs (25). Reyes is also a Statcast favorite, not just because of his impressive xwOBA. He ranks in the 76th percentile or better in expected batting average, hard-hit percentage, expected slugging percentage and exit velocity.

Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants: xwOBA: .370; real wOBA: .343

  • The numbers aren’t quite up to date for Belt, who collected a pair of hits during the Giants’ destruction of the Rockies on Monday afternoon. They don’t alter the picture much, though – with or without them, the 31-year-old Belt has long been a quality major league hitter. Belt has dealt with his fair share of injuries, however, and isn’t locked up to an appealing contract, which are factors that hamper his trade value. He’s on a $16MM salary this year and will earn the same total in each of the next two seasons. Belt also has the right to block a trade to 10 teams.

Trey Mancini, OF/1B, Orioles: xwOBA: .354; real wOBA: .353

  • There are large xwOBA/wOBA gaps for Smoak, Reyes and Belt, but Mancini’s production is apparently just about where it should be. The 27-year-old has batted a strong .281/.340/.500 (119 wRC+) with 17 homers in 373 PA, and as someone who’s on a minimum salary in 2019 and has three seasons of arbitration control left, he could interest teams as a long-term offensive building block. That said, Mancini brings little to the table on the defensive side, and Orioles general manager Mike Elias doesn’t seem inclined to trade him unless a highly beneficial offer comes along.

Kole Calhoun, OF, Angels: xwOBA: .351; real wOBA: .337

  • Whether the Angels are poised to sell this month is up for debate. After all, they’re a decent 48-46 and five games back of a wild-card spot. If they do deal veterans, though, the 31-year-old Calhoun may hold appeal to other teams. Calhoun has bounced back from a miserable 2018 at the plate to hit .238/.323/.485 (112 wRC+) with 21 homers and a career-high .247 ISO in 373 PA this season, helping put him on track for his fifth campaign of at least 2.0 fWAR. He’s also an adept defender who has posted 2 DRS and a 1.6 UZR in the outfield (mostly right) this year. Because of his solid production this season, Calhoun might not be a pure rental. He’s making $10.5MM now and is controllable through 2020 on a $14MM club option (with a $1MM buyout).

Padres Reportedly Not “Committed” To Adding Starter

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Running contrary to recent reports linking the Padres to starters Matt Boyd and Noah Syndergaard, MLB.com’s A.J. Cassavell today indicated that the team “seems unlikely” to “push” for either pitcher. While Padres general manager A.J. Preller is willing to add a controllable starter, he’s not “committed” to doing so, Cassavell writes.

It was just this week that we heard San Diego was “evaluating” Detroit’s Boyd, and they were similarly said to have “checked in” on the availability of the Mets’ long-maned Syndergaard. Their courtship of such controllable, proven starting options dates back to at least last year’s trade deadline. However, as Cassavell points out, the team is internally striking a posture of confidence in regard to their stable of in-house starters.

“It’s the most upside, from a talent perspective, that we’ve had in the rotation,” manager Andy Green told Cassavell in reference to the Padres current big league staff. Though San Diego’s rotations have hardly been the envy of baseball during Green’s four-year stint at the helm, he may not be entirely off-base in evaluating its current staff as a promising group.

Sophomores Eric Lauer and Joey Lucchesi–though perhaps not perfect exemplars of “hot talent lava”–have continued to pitch effectively in their second full campaigns (3.82 and 3.75 FIPs, respectively); rookie Chris Paddack has, for his part, produced some enviable underlying stats in his first 15 career starts (9.51 K/9 and 1.97 BB/9 in 82.1 innings). Meanwhile, the whiff-inducing Dinelson Lamet was recently welcomed back to the rotation after a 2018 Tommy John procedure, and there is optimism that fellow TJ survivor Garrett Richards could bolster the rotation come September. Generally respected young arms like Cal Quantrill and Logan Allen remain on hand to provide innings, and top prospect MacKenzie Gore was recently moved up to Double-A Amarillo–though the implication of a possible late-season promotion for Gore is purely my addition.

As Cassavell notes, Padres starters have amassed a collective 4.41 ERA on the season, which ranks 14th among big league teams. At 45-46, San Diego sits just two games back in the NL Wild Card standings, so it will be interesting to follow whether the Padres are indeed content with this current group, or if they make yet another win-now gesture in pursuit of their first postseason appearance since 2006.

Indians Acquire Phil Maton From Padres

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The Indians have acquired righty Phil Maton from the Padres, per a club announcement. International bonus poll space is headed to San Diego in the deal.

In other moves, the Friars announced that that they have selected the contract of righty Andres Munoz. That explains the need to free a 40-man roster. Catcher Austin Allen is also coming to the majors, with backstop Austin Hedges and lefty Eric Lauer being moved to the bereavement list.

Maton, 26, has appeared at the MLB level in each of the past three seasons. Through 114 2/3 total innings, he carries a meager 5.02 ERA — a mark that has skyrocketed this year, in particular.

That said, there are still reasons for some optimism. Maton has shown an ability to generate swings and misses (13.3% for his career). And he has dominated at Triple-A in recent years.

For the Indians, it was easy to take a shot and add some depth. Righty Cody Anderson won’t be returning to action this year anyway. He was bumped to the 60-day injured list to create roster space.

On the Friars’ side of the deal, it’ll be interesting to see what the team has in Munoz. The live-armed 20-year-old has shown intriguing K/BB numbers in the upper minors this year. Through 35 2/3 innings, split about evenly between Double-A and Triple-A, he owns a 3.03 ERA with 58 strikeouts and 18 free passes.

Padres Interested In Matt Boyd

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You can add Matt Boyd to the long list of starting pitchers on the Padres’ radar, as MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports that San Diego is “evaluating” the southpaw as a potential trade acquisition.  Things still seem to be in the exploratory phase, however, as Morosi says no “serious talks” have taken place between the Padres and Tigers.

San Diego has been looking for a controllable front-of-the-rotation arm for months, dating back to offseason reports that linked them to such names as Marcus Stroman, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Noah Syndergaard in trade rumors.  Syndergaard is reportedly still a player of interest for the Padres, and it’s probably safe to assume that the Friars have at least checked in on virtually any top pitcher who might be on the market.

This search now includes Boyd, who has become one of the most intriguing names of this pre-trade deadline period thanks to a 3.87 ERA, 11.9 K/9, and league-best 7.1 K/BB rate over 107 innings for Detroit.  The Astros, Cubs, and Red Sox are some of the teams known to have had some level of interest in the 28-year-old left-hander, who is controlled through the 2022 season.

Understandably, the Tigers want a big haul of young talent back in any Boyd trade, though San Diego’s deep farm system certainly has the quality to meet Detroit’s demands.  Morosi also suggests that the Padres could offer Franmil Reyes or Hunter Renfroe off the Major League roster to address the Tigers’ lack of young outfield depth, perhaps even with Nick Castellanos going to San Diego as part of a larger multi-player deal if the Padres don’t want their current lineup to suffer an offensive hit.

Mets Have Discussed Noah Syndergaard With At Least 6 Teams

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10:37pm: The Mets have recently discussed Syndergaard with no fewer than six teams, Tim Healey of Newsday reports. Unsurprisingly, though, there’s “minimal urgency” on the Mets’ part to trade Syndergaard, whom they’d need to be “wowed” to move, Healey writes.

12:19pm: The Padres have checked in recently on the availability of Mets starter Noah Syndergaard, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link). The big righty was a known target of the San Diego organization over the winter, though the sides obviously failed to line up at the time.

It’s not at all clear that the two organizations have engaged in substantive trade dialogue to this point. And there are other teams also showing attention to the 26-year-old Syndergaard. It’s still far from certain at this point that the Mets will move him, let alone where.

There are some tough calls ahead for the scuffling New York org. Sitting at ten games under .500, there’s not much hope of digging out of the hole this season. But the club’s balance sheet is set up to continue the pursuit of contention in 2020. Syndergaard would have obvious value to the team then, as he’s controllable for two more seasons via arbitration.

Selling Thor likely won’t make sense for the Mets if it means settling for a return that reflects his 2019 output. Syndergaard carries only a 4.68 ERA through 105 2/3 innings. There certainly seems to be some sequencing and batted-ball misfortune mixed in — he has a slightly depressed 67.0% strand rate; Statcast credits him with a .280 xwOBA-against that’s far better than his .314 wOBA-against — but he’s also carrying career-low levels of swinging strikes (11.9%) and chases out of the zone (31.5%).

Given the levels of early interest being shown, it’s obvious that other organizations still see plenty of skill in Syndergaard’s powerful right arm. He’s still averaging over 98 mph with his fastball. His release point has wandered this year, which could reflect a concern, an attempt at an adjustment, or an area to target for correction.

The key question may ultimately be whether a team is willing to put enough talent on the line to force the Mets’ hand on the matter. For the Friars, adding Syndergaard now would significantly enhance the immediate outlook, though with a yawning gulf in the division that’d be a dubious strategy. Such a move would mostly be about his potential to anchor the rotation next season, with an extension perhaps also a possibility. The San Diego organization is laden with young talent, so there’s no shortage of conceivable pieces that could be included in a deal.

Pitcher Notes: Stroman, Felix, Gore, Whitley

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Blue Jays right-hander and prime trade chip Marcus Stroman has been dealing with a left pectoral issue since June 29, but he expects to return to the mound Sunday, Scott Mitchell of TSN tweets. Stroman’s set to take the ball at Yankee Stadium against a team that has shown interest in acquiring him prior to the July 31 deadline. Whether it’s New York or another club that reels in the 28-year-old, expectations are he won’t be a member of Toronto’s roster once the calendar reaches August. That isn’t lost on Stroman. Regarding the Blue Jays, Stroman told Mitchell, “They haven’t had me in their plans for the future, and I’ve come to terms with it.”

Here’s more on a few other notable hurlers…

  • Shoulder and lat injuries have kept Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez from taking a major league mound since May 11. It’s now likely Hernandez won’t rejoin Seattle’s staff until at least the end of July, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports. Hernandez may have even thrown his last pitch as a Mariner should more setbacks occur, per Divish. That would make for a sad ending in Seattle for the 33-year-old Hernandez, a free agent after the season. A career-long Mariner who debuted in 2005, King Felix enjoyed a long run as one of the majors’ premier aces, but the six-time All-Star and 2010 AL Cy Young winner is now in the throes of a sharp decline. Despite solid strikeout, walk and groundball rates (7.91 K/9, 1.86 BB/9, 50.0 GB%), Hernandez slumped to a 6.52 ERA/5.40 FIP in eight starts and 38 2/3 innings this season before going on the injured list.
  • Elite Padres pitching prospect MacKenzie Gore is inching closer to a major league promotion. The Padres promoted the 20-year-old left-hander from High-A ball to the Double-A level Tuesday, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune relays. Gore, the third overall pick in the 2017 draft, ranks as a top 10 prospect according to Baseball America (No. 3), MLB.com (No. 3), ESPN’s Keith Law (No. 7) and FanGraphs (No. 10). After injuries limited Gore to 60 2/3 innings last season, he jumped out to a magnificent 1.02 ERA with 12.48 K/9 and 2.27 BB/9 in 79 1/3 High-A innings this year to earn a promotion.
  • Unlike Gore, fellow high-end pitching prospect Forrest Whitley has failed to impress in 2019, Josh Norris of Baseball America observes. In addition to posting horrific numbers and battling injuries with the Astros’ Triple-A affiliate this season, Whitley has shown serious immaturity and underwhelming stuff on the mound, evaluators have told Norris. The 21-year-old did enter the season as the youngest player in the Pacific Coast League, though, Norris points out.

Twins Have Shown Interest In Ken Giles, Kirby Yates

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The Twins’ need for bullpen help has been apparent for much of the season, and La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that they’ve “definitely checked on” a pair of the market’s top options: Blue Jays closer Ken Giles and Padres closer Kirby Yates. Both right-handers are controlled through the 2020 season via arbitration. Neal notes that the Blue Jays and Padres both had scouts on hand to watch the Twins’ Triple-A club recently, as did the Diamondbacks and Pirates (presumably, in addition to multiple other organizations).

Minnesota has seen the division-rival Indians creep back into the divisional picture with a six-game winning streak to close out the first half. The Twins took two out of three from the Rangers to finish out the half and were in position for a potential sweep Sunday. However, the offense couldn’t break a tie before the ’pen allowed a trio of runs in the top of the 11th inning.

Left-hander Taylor Rogers has quietly broken through as one of baseball’s best relievers. He boasts a 1.56 ERA with 11.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 0.62 HR/9 and a 46.9 percent grounder rate in 86 2/3 innings dating back to last June, when he began heavily relying on a slider that transformed his arsenal and perhaps his career. Minnesota has also received strong output from 30-year-old rookie right-hander Ryne Harper.

Looking past that pairing, Tyler Duffey has generally been sharp but has stumbled recently, with runs allowed in three of four outings. Trevor May and Matt Magill are both missing bats at high clips but also issuing far too many walks. Offseason signee Blake Parker has has a solid ERA and 10 saves but is averaging a sky-high 2.03 HR/9 with too many walks himself. He’s unlikely to sustain his 3.77 ERA (5.72 FIP, 4.74 xFIP). Journeyman Mike Morin has a 3.18 ERA in 22 2/3 innings but has only fanned 11 hitters in that time.

Those seven names lead Twins relievers in innings pitched, but Minnesota has utilized another 13 arms out of the ’pen so far in 2019. Most have struggled considerably. Twins relievers do rank either 12th or 13th in the Majors in collective ERA, FIP and xFIP, but it’s been a top-heavy unit that, like any contender’s bullpen, would benefit significantly from another experienced late-inning arm.

Giles, 28, is earning $6.3MM and is arguably in the midst of his best season in the Majors. Through 31 innings, he’s pitched to a 1.45 ERA with a career-high 15.4 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 and 0.58 HR/9. Josh Hader is the only qualified pitcher in baseball with a higher swinging-strike rate than Giles’ ridiculous 20.4 percent mark. Giles also ranks in the top 10 in terms of opponents’ chase rate (39.1 percent) and average fastball velocity (97.3 mph). With the Blue Jays in a rebuild and already well out of playoff contention, he’s among the safest bets to be traded in all of MLB.

Yates, 32, has been even better. The second waiver-claim-turned-relief-ace the Padres have unearthed in the past couple of seasons, Yates erupted as one baseball’s premier relievers upon adopting a splitter that ranks as one of the game’s most effective offerings. He’s recorded video-game numbers so far in 2019, with a 1.15 ERA, 13.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.23 HR/9 and a 48 percent grounder rate. He’s being paid at an even more affordable $3.0625MM rate in 2019, but San Diego, unlike Toronto, is firmly in the postseason picture. The Padres are an insurmountable 14 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West but sit just two games out of a Wild Card spot. Reports have indicated that the Padres would need an “overwhelming offer” or “unforeseen haul” in order to move Yates.

It stands to reason that the Twins have checked in far more relievers than just these two, of course. Twins brass has surely checked in on the majority of relievers publicly known to be available — and quite likely several that don’t stand out as readily apparent trade candidates. It’s perhaps of some note that both players listed are controlled beyond the 2019 campaign, though Minnesota has also been connected to Giants closer Will Smith — a free agent at season’s end. If the Twins do prefer relievers controlled through at least 2020, some other options would include San Francisco’s Sam Dyson (profiled here last Friday), Detroit’s Shane Greene, Baltimore’s Mychal Givens, Seattle’s Roenis Elias and Kansas City’s Ian Kennedy.

Padres Could Move Matt Strahm Back To Bullpen

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Although left-hander Matt Strahm is one of three Padres with at least 15 starts this year, he may be on his way back to the team’s bullpen. Strahm will work as a reliever this weekend, and there is a chance his role change will last beyond the All-Star break and perhaps through the season, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

The 27-year-old Strahm explained to Acee that he considers himself a starter and would like to remain one, but he’d accept a reversion to his previous job. Strahm functioned almost exclusively in relief for the Royals and Padres from 2016-18, during which he picked up just eight starts in 86 appearances. Even though Strahm was quite effective out of San Diego’s bullpen last season, the team took the gamble of turning him into a full-time starter coming into this year. The experiment was going swimmingly through May, at which point Strahm had posted a sparkling 3.21 ERA with 51 strikeouts against 11 walks in 56 innings.

While Strahm carried a stretch of nine straight starts in which he allowed three earned runs or fewer into June 2, his season began unraveling then. Strahm coughed up seven earned runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Marlins, and the Padres put him on the injured list with a rib strain shortly thereafter.

Although Strahm returned after spending the minimum time on the IL, his woes have intensified since. Including his performance against Miami, Strahm has turned in five starts in a row of giving up between four and seven earned runs. He now owns a bloated 5.42 ERA with a similarly unpalatable 5.21 FIP over 79 2/3 frames this season, despite having notched 8.7 K/9 against 1.92 BB/9. Most of Strahm’s problems have come versus same-handed hitters, whom he has surprisingly had much more trouble against than righties throughout his career. Those struggles have been even more pronounced this year, though, as lefties have pulverized Strahm for a .430 weighted on-base average. For all intents and purposes, Strahm has turned every lefty swinger into Charlie Blackmon (.425 wOBA).

A drop in velocity surely hasn’t helped matters for Strahm, who has seen all of his pitches lose steam since 2018. He averaged around 94 mph on his fastball last year, but it’s down to roughly 91 this season. Less velocity has helped lead to more home runs off Strahm for opposing hitters. Just under 18 percent of fly balls have left the yard against Strahm, which is especially alarming for someone whose groundball rate (33.1 percent) ranks near the absolute bottom of the majors.

Now, if the Padres do pull Strahm from their rotation for good, it’s unclear which quintet would comprise their rotation. The team just got Dinelson Lamet back from Tommy John surgery, while Chris Paddack, Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer have done well across a combined 46 starts. The Friars also have Logan Allen, Cal Quantrill and Nick Margevicius in the mix, and there’s at least some chance they’ll add another starter in advance of the July 31 trade deadline. Despite a 43-45 record, the Padres are just three games back of a wild-card spot, which could put them in position to buy in the right situation (perhaps one that would deliver a controllable starter to San Diego). Looking beyond the deadline, there’s a chance recovering Tommy John patient Garrett Richards will come back in September.

In shifting Strahm back to his previous role, the Padres would hope he’d rekindle last year’s magic and give them the lights-out lefty reliever they’ve lacked this season. With Jose Castillo and Aaron Loup having missed most or all of the season, the Padres’ lone usable lefty option has been Robbie Erlin. He hasn’t been great, though, whereas Strahm’s just a year removed from pitching to a 2.25 ERA (albeit with a far less formidable 3.70 FIP) with 9.56 K/9 against 3.38 BB/9 in 48 relief innings.

West Notes: Yordan, Angels, Rangers, Padres

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Rookie sensation Yordan Alvarez garnered some first base experience during his time in the minors, but the Astros have no intention of trying him there in the majors this year, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. The team wasn’t “comfortable” with Alvarez’s performance at first in the minors, according to manager A.J. Hinch. Thanks in part to that, the Astros will stick with the hot-hitting Yuli Gurriel as their starter, with Rome noting Aledmys Diaz will serve as the backup when he comes off the injured list. Alvarez will continue as a designated hitter/left fielder, a role which has suited him well during what has been a brilliant introduction to the majors. Through his first 69 plate appearances, the 22-year-old has slashed .317/.406/.733 (196 wRC+) with seven home runs.

More from the majors’ West divisions…

  • The Angels received an encouraging second opinion this week on infielder Zack Cozart’s problematic left shoulder, manager Brad Ausmus revealed (via Dave Sessions of MLB.com). The doctors “seem to be narrowing it down to a couple things it could be, and I guess the MRI is to further narrow that down,” Ausmus said. Cozart has been down since May 28 with inflammation in his shoulder, a joint that also cost him a significant chunk of 2018. He underwent season-ending surgery on a torn labrum last season, ending his first year with the Angels after just 58 games. Cozart will visit Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who performed his surgery a year ago, for more imaging tests Friday, Sessions relays.
  • The Rangers were within a week of summoning reliever Matt Bush back to the majors before he was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. Bush had been rehabbing a prior UCL injury all season, but this week’s news means he’ll wind up missing the entire campaign and surely a large portion of 2020. The Rangers plan on sticking with in-house relievers to help fill Bush’s void in the immediate term, according to Wilson, though he suggests the injury will place a greater urgency on the club to acquire outside help before the July 31 trade deadline.
  • Padres left-handed reliever Jose Castillo – out all season because of a flexor strain – could be one bullpen session away from restarting a rehab assignment, manager Andy Green said Thursday (via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). The 23-year-old was pitching in what was supposed to be his final rehab appearance June 10 when he suffered a setback. Castillo was a quietly outstanding piece of the Padres’ bullpen as a rookie in 2018, when he pitched to a 3.29 ERA/2.64 FIP with 12.21 K/9 and 2.82 BB/9.

Progress Report: The Eric Hosmer Contract

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In February 2018, with the Padres amid a rebuild and attempting to move closer to relevance, the club made the polarizing decision to sign free-agent first baseman Eric Hosmer to a franchise-record contract. Although there seemingly wasn’t a wide market for the longtime Royal’s services, the Padres gave Hosmer an eight-year deal worth $144MM.

Hosmer stood out at times in Kansas City, including during a World Series-winning campaign in 2015, but fell on his face in other seasons. As a result of Hosmer’s inconsistency as a Royal, there were plenty who either loved or hated the Padres’ choice to hand him a headline-stealing payday. Those who opposed it gained the upper hand in its first year, in which Hosmer hit a meek .253/.322/.398 in 677 plate appearances. He was a below-average offensive player by wRC+ (95) and less than a replacement-level performer by fWAR (minus-0.1).

Considering the beginning of a long-term contract is when a player is supposed to be providing the most value, Hosmer’s woeful 2018 production was downright alarming. The Padres needed a rebound from Hosmer coming into this season, and while he has gotten better, the respected veteran still hasn’t given the Friars much bang for their buck on the field.

The best thing you can say about Hosmer the Padre is that he has been available more than most players. He piled up 157 appearances a year ago and has participated in 86 of the Padres’ 87 games in 2019. Along the way this season, Hosmer has slashed .293/.343/.45 with 13 home runs – just five fewer than last year – over 364 trips to the plate. He has also upped his weighted on-base average/expected wOBA from matching .310s last season to .341/.334 this year. Likewise, the 29-year-old’s 111 wRC+ and 0.7 fWAR count as vast improvements over what he offered in those categories in 2018. They’re still far from great, however. In fact, the average major league first baseman has posted a 110 wRC+ this season. Of course, the average major league first baseman isn’t on a $20MM salary this year or locked into a big-money deal into his 30s.

While FanGraphs credits Hosmer with making more hard contact and less soft contact than he did last season, he continues to amass too many ground balls and too few fly balls. The typical batter hits grounders at an approximately 43 percent rate and flies 36 percent of the time. Hosmer’s at 57.3 and 21.0 in those areas in 2019. It’s hard to muster much in the power department with that combination, as Hosmer’s lifetime ISO (.155) and current ISO (.164) help prove. And Hosmer’s one of the majors’ slowest runners, making his grounder-heavy skill set even less conducive to success. The ongoing grounder overload hasn’t enabled Hosmer to take advantage of a 2019 hard-hit rate which Statcast places in the majors’ 87th percentile or an exit velocity that betters 71 percent of his peers.

Because Hosmer’s also still not walking much (6.9 percent this year, 8.2 lifetime), he continues to rely on a high batting average on balls in play to help buoy his numbers. That has paid off at times – including this season to an extent, as Hosmer’s .337 BABIP represents a 35-point increase over 2018’s. However, during seasons in which Hosmer’s BABIP has sat around average or worse, his production has typically fallen well short of expectations.

In further inauspicious news, the lefty-hitting Hosmer’s amid his second straight abysmal season against same-handed pitchers. Southpaws limited him to an unsightly .179/.240/.287 line in his first year as a Padre. Hosmer has bumped that slash to .250/.320/.324 this season, yet wRC+ indicates it’s still 24 percent worse than average. Struggles versus lefties aren’t anything new for Hosmer, who has stumbled to a .668 OPS and an 81 wRC+ against them over the course of his career.

A season and a half into his contract, the Padres’ choice to pay a premium for an inconsistent platoon first baseman continues to look like a head-scratcher. That’s all the more true when considering they already had well-compensated first baseman Wil Myers on the roster. Myers is now limited to the outfield, where he hasn’t garnered consistent playing time of late because he’s an ill fit in center and the Padres have superior hitters Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes manning the corners.

This has been a positive overall season for long-suffering San Diego, which is hovering around .500 and finds itself in playoff contention. The team still hasn’t benefited as hoped from the Hosmer signing, though, and there aren’t clear signs that’s going to change.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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