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Aaron Loup

Mets Notes: Smith, Loup, Lindor

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Mets manager Buck Showalter spoke with reporters about the team’s decision to option Dominic Smith to Triple-A this week, calling it a “difficult” conversation to have with the first baseman (link via Newsday’s Laura Albanese). “You always try to put yourself in their shoes knowing that, in a lot of cases, you can’t,” Showalter said of his conversation with Smith. “It’s one of those cases where someone says, I know what you’re feeling. No, you don’t. No, you don’t, so don’t act like you do. I’ve learned in situations like that, you’re better off listening than you are talking.”

Smith will play primarily first base in Syracuse, and Showalter voiced confidence in the 26-year-old’s ability to find his swing with the help of regular at-bats and to get back to the Majors sooner than later. For the time being, however, with a banged-up pitching staff, the Mets needed a extra arm. Smith had minor league options remaining and had been struggling through infrequent usage. The former first-rounder hit .299/.366/.571 from 2019-20, but he batted just .186/.287/.256 in 101 plate appearances this year. Smith told SI.com in March that he played through a small tear of the labrum in his right shoulder last year, and it’s certainly possible there are (or were) some lingering effects of that issue.

A few more notes out of Queens…

  • Former Mets lefty Aaron Loup chatted with SNY’s Andy Martino about his decision to sign with the Angels over the winter, revealing that the Mets indeed made an offer but did not match the two-year, $17MM terms he received from the Halos. Loup details that the Angels were aggressive from the jump, while the Mets took their time in putting together an offer as they sorted through front-office and managerial searches. Loup acknowledges that he and his agents “tried to stall the Angels as long as we could” while waiting to see if the Mets would match the offer. Ultimately, the Mets came in the $12-12.5MM range with a two-year offer, per Loup, who unsurprisingly opted for the larger guarantee in Anaheim. Loup has already allowed more runs in 18 2/3 innings with the Angels than he did in 56 2/3 frames as a Met last year, though the bulk of the damage against him has come over his past four appearances. No one expected the 34-year-old to replicate last year’s immaculate 0.95 ERA in the first place, and the fact that he’s sporting nearly identical strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates suggests that Loup ought to bounce back from this rough patch before long.
  • Showalter told reporters, including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, that Francisco Lindor has “a form of” fracture in his finger. However, it doesn’t seem to be terribly serious, as Lindor is in tonight’s lineup, hitting third and playing shortstop. The injury came about in an unusual fashion, as he got his finger stuck in a hotel door. The shortstop seems to be in good spirits about the situation, joking with reporters about keeping the door open from now. “I ain’t touching that door,” Lindor said, per Tim Healey of Newsday. “It can stay open.” Lindor has been a key part of the club’s tremendous start to the season, as he’s hitting .261/.345/.442 for a wRC+ of 126. He’s also added seven steals and quality defense, accumulating 2.1 fWAR already with less than a third of the season played.

Angels Sign Aaron Loup

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The Angels announced they’ve signed reliever Aaron Loup to a two-year, $17MM guarantee. (The team announced the contract terms). He’ll receive successive $7.5MM salaries in 2022 and 2023, and the deal also contains a $7.5MM club option for 2024 that comes with a $2MM buyout. Loup is a client of the Beverley Hills Sports Council.

A longtime member of the Blue Jays’ bullpen early in his career, Loup had seemingly settled in as a competent journeyman not too long ago. He split the 2018 season between Toronto and the Phillies, then spent the next three years playing on either minor league or one-year big league deals with different clubs.

After an injury-wrecked 2019 campaign with the Padres, he settled for a minors pact with the Rays in 2020. Loup posted strong results in Tampa Bay but didn’t boast the kind of velocity teams typically covet from back-end arms. His 2020 numbers were enough to land him a guaranteed job with the Mets, albeit on a fairly low $3MM base salary.

Loup’s deal with the Angels shatters his previous three contracts, a testament to how effective he was in Queens. The Louisiana native worked to an incredible 0.95 ERA across 56 2/3 innings, a mark bested only by Seattle’s Casey Sadler among those with 30+ frames. Teams are looking far beyond ERA to evaluate pitchers (particularly relievers), but Loup’s underlying metrics also painted the picture of an elite late-innings arm.

The 33-year-old (34 next month) fanned a solid 26.1% of batters faced, the best full season mark of his career. That’s more good than dominant, but Loup has never been a particularly overpowering hurler. Relying primarily on a 92 MPH sinker and a mid-80s cutter/slider, the southpaw has typically been a ground-ball specialist. Loup routinely induces grounders on half or more of balls in play against him, and he continued to thrive in that regard this year. He also boasts plus control, only walking more batters than average in two of his eight career seasons with at least 20 innings pitched. His 7.3% walk percentage in 2021 was almost three points lower than the 9.8% league mark for bullpen arms.

Loup’s standout skill, however, has been contact suppression. He’s typically one of the league’s harder pitchers to square up, and that was never more true than in 2021. Only six of the 218 hitters who stepped in against him recorded an extra-base hit, and he remarkably allowed just a single home run. The Angels can’t reasonably count on Loup to be that effective moving forward, but the front office is clearly banking on him inducing plenty of grounders and otherwise unthreatening contact.

Adding to Loup’s appeal is that he stymied hitters from both sides of the plate. He’s always been a tough at-bat for left-handed hitters, and he was leveraged situationally quite a bit early in his career. But Loup has proven adept at getting righties out lately as well, holding them to a meager .205/.276/.311 line since the start of 2020. An ability to handle hitters from both sides of the plate has taken on an outsized importance in the three-batter minimum era, and Loup has proven capable of taking on that expanded role.

Loup was perhaps the top option in this offseason’s left-handed relief group. Andrew Chafin, Brooks Raley and former Angel Tony Watson now stand out as the best remaining arms in a fairly thin class. The combination of market scarcity and Loup’s recent dominance leads to a very solid contract that comes in a bit higher than generally expected.

The signing pushes the Angels’ estimated 2022 player commitments a bit north of $157MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Non-tenders could shave a couple million dollars off that tally, and there’s still some decent leeway before reaching the club’s near-$182MM season-opening 2021 payroll. That could give general manager Perry Minasian and his staff the chance for further upgrades, with the pitching staff and middle infield still standing out as potential target areas.

The Angels have already made one big rotation strike, signing Loup’s 2021 (and now 2022) teammate Noah Syndergaard to a $21MM deal. Even after the Syndergaard pickup, Minasian told reporters the club was hoping to further bolster the rotation (link via Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com). And while Loup should be a notable upgrade in the late innings, the club had a below-average relief corps in 2021 and is facing the potential free agent departure of closer Raisel Iglesias. An effort to retain or replace Iglesias still seems plausible, even with Loup now in the fold.

To create space on the 40-man roster, Los Angeles designated southpaw Hector Yan for assignment. The 22-year-old was highly regarded enough that the club added him to the 40-man last winter to keep him from potential selection in the Rule 5 draft. Yan struggled to a 5.25 ERA with a sky high 15.2% walk rate at High-A Tri-City, though, costing him his roster spot. The Angels will have ten days to trade Yan or place him on waivers.

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Sports.

Phillies Interested In Starling Marte, Aaron Loup

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The Phillies have interest in center fielder Starling Marte and reliever Aaron Loup, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links).  Since the outfield and bullpen are the top priorities for the Phils this winter, it isn’t surprising that Marte and Loup have gained the club’s attention.  Among the several teams involved in Loup’s market, Heyman also notes that the Mets are looking into bringing Loup back to Queens for a longer stint after the southpaw dominated out of New York’s bullpen in 2021.

Marte is really the only true full-time center fielder in this year’s free agent class, though Marte’s 2021 numbers would’ve still put him at or near the top of a deeper center field market.  Marte hit .310/.383/.458 with 12 home runs and a league-best 47 stolen bases over 526 combined plate appearances with the Marlins and Athletics, despite missing about five weeks due to a fractured rib.  Marte did benefit from a .369 BABIP, though his excellent speed and baserunning played a big factor in that extra batted-ball “luck.”  His 8.2% walk rate was still below average, though also the best of Marte’s 10 big league seasons.

Reviews were a little mixed on Marte’s glovework, as Defensive Runs Saved had him at -4, though UZR/150 (+1) and Outs Above Average (+4) gave his center field defense positive grades.  As Marte enters his age-33 season, however, he certainly still seems athletic enough to provide some quality help up the middle.

This is all music to the Phillies’ ears, considering the club has Bryce Harper and not much else in its current outfield mix.  Both Andrew McCutchen and Odubel Herrera are free agents, and while Herrera had a pretty modest 2021 season, he was still the best of a revolving door of subpar options for the Phils in center.  Installing Marte in center field and at or near the top of the Philadelphia lineup would fill a couple of major holes for the club.

Signing Marte would represent yet another big expenditure on the Phillies’ books, though president Dave Dombrowski had given some indication (“I don’t find it restrictive“) that ownership has given him some spending flexibility.  With roughly $171.1MM committed to payroll in 2022, the Phillies could afford to give Marte a big contract and still have some significant room under whatever the luxury tax threshold ends up being next season.  Or, the Phils might even be comfortable going over the tax threshold, as owner John Middleton has indicated in the past that he would be okay with paying the tax in the right circumstance.

Loup won’t cost anywhere near Marte’s price range, but after signing a one-year/$3MM deal with the Mets last winter, Loup is in line for a much more significant contract this time around.  The veteran left-hander had one of the better seasons of any reliever in baseball, with a tiny 0.95 ERA over 56 2/3 innings out of New York’s bullpen.  While Loup’s .229 wOBA far outpaced his .272 xwOBA, Loup also had a 50.4% grounder rate to go along with above-average strikeout (26.1%) and walk (7.3%) rates.

Even if Loup pitches closer to his 3.32 SIERA next year, the Mets would certainly still like that kind of production back in their pen, and Loup would be even more of a boost to a Philadelphia relief corps that badly struggled in 2021.  Loup doesn’t much closing experience, so while he isn’t the lockdown ninth-inning answer Dombrowski is looking for, Loup can at least help the Phillies take a lead into the ninth.

Mets Sign Aaron Loup

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JANUARY 30: Loup’s deal, which the Mets have now made official, also includes $250K in potential incentives based on appearances, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The Mets’ 40-man roster is now full.

JANUARY 28: Loup’s contract would guarantee him around $3MM once finalized, reports SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter link).

JANUARY 27: The Mets and left-handed reliever Aaron Loup are in agreement on a deal, pending the completion of a physical, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). It’s a one-year deal for Loup, Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reported earlier this afternoon that the Mets were “zeroing in” on Loup after missing out on Brad Hand, who signed with the division-rival Nationals. Loup is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Loup, 33, gives the Mets an established left-handed bullpen option that the roster previous lacked. Waiver claim Stephen Tarpley and former 40th-round pick Daniel Zamora were the only two southpaws on the Mets’ 40-man roster prior to their forthcoming agreement with Loup. Veteran southpaw Jerry Blevins will be in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee as well, though he didn’t pitch at all last season.

Outside of a forearm strain that wiped out a good chunk of his 2019 season in San Diego, Loup has been a largely durable and reasonably effective bullpen piece since breaking into the Majors with the Blue Jays back in 2012. He’s had some ups and downs along the way, but the end result is a 3.38 ERA and 3.24 SIERA with career strikeout and walk rates of 21.9 percent and 7.0 percent. Loup has upped his strikeout numbers over the past few years, however, and in 2020 with the Rays delivered one of his best stretches: a 2.52 ERA and 3.62 SIERA with a 22.9 percent punchout rate and a 4.2 percent walk rate that ranked among the game’s lowest. He also tossed 5 1/3 innings in the playoffs, allowing just two runs with seven strikeouts against two walks.

Loup has been better against lefties throughout his big league career but has held his own against righties and was quite good against them in 2020’s shortened slate of games. He’s held opposing lefties to a career .232/.301/.319 batting line while righties have managed a .264/.333/.428 output.

Loup will join right-hander Trevor May as a new member of the Mets’ setup core, effectively replacing fellow free-agent lefty Justin Wilson in the process. The Mets could perhaps still use another lefty, but with a relief corps featuring May, Loup, Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia, Miguel Castro and Brad Brach, they’re certainly not light on talent. Some of those veterans — Betances and Familia in particular — are in search of rebound efforts, but everyone in that veteran group has enjoyed a good bit of big league success.

Mets Showing Interest In Aaron Loup

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With lefty Brad Hand, reported to be one of the Mets’ top bullpen targets, now off the board on a deal with the division-rival Nationals, the Mets are “zeroing in” on southpaw Aaron Loup, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports (via Twitter). The 33-year-old has a solid, albeit lesser track record to that of Hand but should come at a more affordable price as a result.

Loup spent the 2020 season with the Rays, pitching to a 2.52 ERA and 3.62 SIERA with a 22.9 percent strikeout rate and a 4.2 percent walk rate that ranked among the best in the league. That marked an (obviously) outstanding rebound effort for the lefty, who missed the bulk of the 2019 season with the Padres due to a forearm strain.

Prior to the 2019-20 seasons, Loup had spent the vast majority of his career with the Blue Jays, enjoying a good bit of success but struggling through some of the highs and lows oft associated with the ever-volatile world of relief pitching. Loup was optioned multiple times over the years with the Jays, including several times in a 2016 season that finished with an ERA just north of five. However, in parts of seven seasons with the Jays, Loup finished with a 3.47 ERA, a roughly average 21.8 percent strikeout rate and a solid 7.2 percent walk rate.

As one would expect with any left-handed reliever, Loup has some degree of a platoon split. Over the course of his nine-year MLB career, he’s held lefty batters to a .232/.301/.319 line, while righties have had more success at .264/.333/.424. That said, Loup was quite good against righties and lefties alike in 2020 — albeit in an obviously limited sample of work.

With Justin Wilson hitting the open market after wrapping up a two-year deal in Queens, the Mets lack a lefty reliever with any sort of Major League track record. Waiver claim Stephen Tarpley and longtime farmhand Daniel Zamora are both on the 40-man roster and both have big league experience, though neither found much success in 2020. Former Met Jerry Blevins is also back with the club on a non-roster deal with an invite to Spring Training, so he could factor into the look as well depending on how things shake out in camp.

Rays To Select Contract Of Ryan Thompson

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11:03am: Southpaw Aaron Loup will also be selected to the 40-man and added to the Opening Day roster, the club has announced. He had been in camp on a minor-league deal.

8:09am: The Rays have decided to carry sidearmer Ryan Thompson on the Opening Day roster, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. He’ll be selected to the 40-man roster today.

It’ll certainly be interesting to see whether Thompson can carve out a MLB career after an impressive showing during this year’s two training periods. The former minor-league Rule 5er will finally get his first shot after first reaching the upper minors in 2016.

Thompson, 28, is said to deliver a low-nineties heater from an unusually low angle. It’s “pretty, pretty nasty” stuff, according to skipper Kevin Cash. Topkin goes on to discuss the final remaining roster calls facing the Rays, who’ll have to make formal decisions today.

Austin Meadows Tests Positive For Coronavirus

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10:00pm: Meadows offered Topkin an encouraging update via text, writing: “The first couple days I was pretty fatigued and some mild cold symptoms. But feeling ready to go now.” There’s no known timetable for his return, though.

8:01pm: The Rays have placed outfielder Austin Meadows on the injured list as a result of a positive COVID-19 test, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. The club has also added left-handed reliever Aaron Loup to its 40-man roster.

Meadows has been absent from workouts since last week, so this isn’t necessarily a stunning development. Nevertheless, it’s certainly disheartening to see another positive test confirmation. It’s unclear whether Meadows is exhibiting any symptoms at the moment, but he’ll need to show he’s asymptomatic and test negative for the illness twice in a 24-hour span before he’s eligible to return to the Rays.

When he is able to come back, Meadows will try to build on an exemplary first season with the Rays. The 25-year-old emerged as one of the sport’s brightest young talents last season, hitting .291/.364/.558 with 33 home runs and 12 stolen bases en route to an All-Star nod.

Loup, 32, joined the Rays on a minor league contract in February. His 2019 season, which he spent with San Diego, was largely a wash because of elbow problems that limited him to 3 1/3 innings. Loup has typically been reliable throughout his career, though, having recorded a 3.45 ERA with 8.39 K/9, 2.76 BB/9 and a 54.3 percent groundball rate over 326 frames since he debuted with the Blue Jays in 2012.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Rays, LeBlanc, Phillips, Orioles

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Should the Red Sox reload or rebuild?  The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham votes for the latter option, arguing that Chris Sale’s season-ending injury should inspire the Sox to “consider trading anybody outside of Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and Eduardo Rodriguez.”  (Personally speaking, I’d also add Christian Vazquez and Andrew Benintendi to Abraham’s no-trade list.)  Such a move may seem drastic, though the Red Sox already faced a tough battle to reach the playoffs in 2020 even with Sale, and that was assuming the left-hander was able to rebound from a down year in 2019.  With building blocks like Bogaerts and Devers already in place and their luxury tax penalties reset to zero, Boston could look to get back into playoff contention as early as 2021 after trading veterans for the right young talent, and then adding some other higher-priced players in trades or free agency.

Some more from around the AL East…

  • It all could be something of a moot point given the indeterminate delay to the 2020 season, though Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times looked at how the Rays’ roster was shaping up in the latter days of Spring Training.  Bullpen-wise, Nick Anderson was looking like the favorite for the majority of save chances, while non-roster invitee Aaron Loup was working towards winning a roster spot, which would have required Tampa to clear a space on its 40-man roster.  Kevan Smith and Chris Herrmann, two other veterans in camp on non-roster invites, had seemingly fallen behind Michael Perez in the backup catcher competition.  Though the Rays were preparing to deploy five regular starting pitchers, Topkin notes that the Rays were still planning to use openers every once in a while, as a way of managing injuries or giving the regular starters a break if necessary.
  • Thursday was the opt-out date in Wade LeBlanc’s minor league contract with the Orioles, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes.  We’re reaching the end of the 48-hour window for the club to put LeBlanc on its 40-man roster or release him, assuming some other arrangement hasn’t been made in the wake of the shutdown.  Regardless, Kubatko feels LeBlanc is a lock to make the roster, and getting selected would guaranteed an $800K salary for LeBlanc in 2020.
  • In another piece from Kubatko, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that no Orioles players are set to undergo any medical procedures.  This includes right-hander Evan Phillips, who dealt with some soreness in his throwing elbow in early March and recently met with Dr. Neal ElAttrache for a second opinion about the issue.

Rays Finalizing Deal With Aaron Loup

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5:07pm: There is a deal in place, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

10:15am: The Rays are finishing up a minor league contract with veteran left-handed reliever Aaron Loup, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. If and when the deal is completed, the Beverly Hills Sports Council client would head to Major League camp as a non-roster invitee.

Loup, 32, spent the 2019 season in the Padres organization but has spent the vast majority of his eight-year big league career with the Blue Jays. An elbow strain limited him to just 3 1/3 innings with San Diego last season, but Loup holds a lifetime 3.45 ERA with averages of 8.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 0.69 HR/9 to go along with a 54.3 percent ground-ball rate.

Loup has fared considerably better against left-handed opponents in his career, but unlike many traditional lefty specialists, he hasn’t been completely obliterated by hitters holding the platoon advantage. Lefties have managed only a .234/.303/.321 slash against him through 584 plate appearances in the Majors, while righty hitters have put together a .269/.338/.424 slash. It’s certainly more production than one would hope to allow, but Loup isn’t a liability who can only be trusted in left-on-left spots, either.

Tampa Bay isn’t exactly hurting for left-handed depth at the moment, but Loup further deepens what’s already any areas of strength. Ryan Yarbrough is likely to open the 2020 season in the Rays’ rotation, while Jose Alvarado and Colin Poche could be in the Opening Day ’pen. Elsewhere on the 40-man roster are Jalen Beeks, Anthony Banda and top prospect Brendan McKay, although that trio could begin the year as starters in the Triple-A and serve as rotation depth. Loup will join a list of non-roster lefties that also includes former big leaguers Sean Gilmartin and Ryan Sherriff.

Padres Decline Aaron Loup’s Option; Robbie Erlin Elects Free Agency

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It’s been a busy day transactional day for the Padres, and the team announced two more additional moves to clear space on the 40-man roster.  San Diego declined its $2MM club option on left-hander Aaron Loup, instead paying him $200K in a buyout.  The club also parted ways with left-hander Robbie Erlin, who cleared waivers and is now a free agent.

Loup came to San Diego on a one-year deal that paid him at least $1.4MM in guaranteed money (the $200K buyout and $1.2MM in salary for 2019).  Unfortunately for the veteran southpaw, his season was cut short after only four appearances, as he suffered a left forearm strain that sidelined him for the remainder of the year.  Loup also missed about a month in 2018 with a forearm strain, which creates even more durability questions for a pitcher who was a bullpen workhorse for the Blue Jays from 2013-17 (averaging 57 appearances per season).  It seems that Loup will almost surely have to settle for a minor league contract as he looks to rebound from his lost 2019.

Erlin will hit the open market after nine years in San Diego’s organization.  Long considered a potential staple of the Padres’ rotation, inconsistency and some notable injuries hampered Erlin’s progress.  He missed a good deal of 2014 due to elbow problems, and then virtually all of the 2016-17 seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Since returning, he has pitched largely as a reliever and shown some promise, as his 5.37 ERA over 55 1/3 innings in 2019 was underscored by some much stronger ERA predictors (3.61 FIP, 4.14 xFIP, 4.07 SIERA), and could have been inflated by a .373 BABIP.  With a fastball that barely cracked the 90mph mark, Erlin isn’t a hard thrower, though his 8.46 K/9 in 2019 represents a new career best.

Erlin only just turned 29, and could draw some free agent interest in his new role as a multi-inning reliever.  He is projected to make $2MM this winter, in third and final year of arbitration eligibility.

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