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NL West Notes: Padres, Hill, Morales, Rockies

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In an excellent piece for Baseball Prospectus, Jeff Quinton examines how the Padres went from uninteresting to potential contenders without spending too heavily or parting with top prospects Hunter Renfroe, Austin Hedges, Matt Wisler or Rymer Liriano. As Quinton notes, the Padres took an indiscriminate approach to adding players this offseason, focusing on overall value delivered rather than team need. The Padres could have claimed their outfield was full after adding Matt Kemp, for example, but proceeded to add further value by acquiring both Justin Upton and Wil Myers. Similarly, one could have said the team was set at both catcher and starting pitcher and should have focused on the infield, but they added value in areas that weren’t seen as traditional areas of need. By doing so, the Padres didn’t put themselves in situations where they were forced to overpay because the other team knew San Diego desperately needed the player in question. Rather, the team sought general value and therefore found more buyer-friendly markets, Quinton speculates.

Here’s more on the National League West…

  • Aaron Hill tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that he’s feeling good heading into Spring Training and thinks he has a few good years at second base left in him. Hill wouldn’t blame his 2014 struggles on injuries, even though he dealt with several, instead saying that he began to press after his initial struggles. As Piecoro notes, the D-Backs’ ideal scenario would have Yasmany Tomas handling third base with Hill playing well at second base. While such an outcome would obviously improve Arizona’s on-field performance, it would perhaps more importantly make Hill, who is owed $12MM in each of the next two seasons, a considerably more tradeable asset.
  • The Rockies’ addition of Kyle Kendrick allows them to work top prospects Jon Gray and Eddie Butler into the rotation more slowly rather than rushing them to the Majors, writes the Denver Post’s Nick Groke. Gray, Butler and trade acquisition David Hale join several in-house candidates to give the Rox better depth than they had in 2014 when they used a club-record 15 pitchers, Groke notes. He points to the fact that Franklin Morales — the team’s “emergency starter” — ranked second on the team in innings as an example of how problematic depth was in 2014. Additionally, Groke notes that Morales, who is still a free agent, probably won’t return to the Rockies.
  • In a notebook piece, Groke’s colleague Patrick Saunders touches briefly on a point of frustration for some Rockies fans — the fact that the team did not make a run at James Shields or any other top starters despite a clear rotation need. Saunders notes that the only way the Rockies will ever add a top flight starter under owner Dick Monfort is via trade, as they’d have to grossly overpay a free agent to come to Coors Field, and Monfort “is never going to hand out big money to a free agent pitcher.”

Quick Hits: Angels Payroll, Hamels, Olivera

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Let’s round up a few stray notes from the day:

  • After avoiding arbitration with Matt Joyce today, the Angels appear set to enter the spring with a MLB payroll of a shade under $145MM, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez writes. That is about $10MM shy of last year’s starting point, leaving the team with additional luxury tax space (Gonzalez estimates a $174MM payroll for those purposes) that the club will be willing to put towards any needs that become apparent over the course of the season.
  • Potentially joining the Halos with interesting summer plans are the Phillies, who are increasingly likely to hold onto ace Cole Hamels, as Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reports. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. reiterated previous statements that he expects Hamels to enter camp with the team, adding that he “expect[s] him to be our Opening Day starter.” The Padres, Rangers, Dodgers, and Cardinals are all said to have been in touch recently on Hamels, but while all are clear of Hamels’s no-trade protection, they also each have good reasons not to be aggressive.
  • Hector Olivera’s representatives have indicated that he will put on his final open showcase this coming Wednesday, Ben Badler of Baseball America tweets. That obviously could be a prelude to an intensification of his market, particularly with Spring Training fast approach. As Badler notes, Olivera is still not a free agent, but is expected to be so declared in short order.

Reactions To And Fallout From The James Shields Signing

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The James Shields saga has finally drawn to a close, with the right-hander agreeing to a four-year deal to pitch near his southern California home as a member of the vastly reshaped Padres. Shields will reportedly take home $75MM, and his contract also contains a club option. Shields rumors have dominated the past week, with multiple teams rumored to be involved. Here are some reactions from around the baseball world as well as some details on other offers that Shields had available…

  • Shields did not take the best offer that was presented to him, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter link). One team made the right-hander a four-year, $80MM contract offer. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune backs that up (also on Twitter) by noting that the Padres’ offer was “one of the highest,” adding that he had heard Shields was willing to take a small discount to pitch in San Diego.
  • That team wasn’t the Cubs, who topped out at three years and a vesting option, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (on Twitter). Chicago wasn’t willing to guarantee Shields a contract in the mid-$70MM range after spending $175MM on Jon Lester and Jason Hammel already this offseason.
  • The Marlins also offered Shields a three-year pact and a vesting option, Heyman tweets.
  • The Marlins realized they had to bow out on Saturday afternoon once the bidding exceeded $70MM, reports MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro (Twitter links). Miami was concerned not only with blowing up its future payroll but also with forfeiting the No. 12 pick in the draft — the top unprotected pick this year. The Padres, of course surrendered the very next pick in the draft, as they’d been slotted 13th overall. Frisaro adds that Shields monitored the Marlins all winter and was impressed by their direction, but the Padres simply made a stronger offer.
  • Olney gets a different sense of the Marlins’ level of involvement, as he tweets that some are of the belief that the Marlins actually made the highest offer to Shields.
  • The Cubs’ guarantee was around $60MM, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. Sherman adds that Shields’ camp pursued the Dodgers far more than the team pursued him, and the Blue Jays hadn’t spoken to Shields in about two weeks when he agreed to terms.
  • Also from Sherman’s piece, he opines that while Shields is unquestionably a financial risk — the Friars will be paying him and Kemp roughly $36MM per year beginning in 2016 (the $18MM received from the Dodgers offsets much of the 2015 cost) — he was too good of a deal to pass up. Shields was still cheaper, financially speaking, than Cole Hamels, and he also didn’t cost the prospects Hamels would have required. He also provides leadership and protects them somewhat when Ian Kennedy and Andrew Cashner hit the open market. And, with Kennedy, Carlos Quentin, Justin Upton, Will Venable, Joaquin Benoit, Cory Luebke, Shawn Kelley, Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson all potentially off the books next winter, the team has some financial flexibility.
  • Fangraphs’ Mike Petriello writes that while the addition of Shields is an unequivocal boost to the Padres’ postseason hopes, their downfall very well could be a patchwork group of infielders. The Padres’ infield projects at just 5.6 WAR, based on the Steamer projection system, and Petriello looks at the past five seasons’ worth of data to see the correlation between infield WAR and overall wins by a team. Unsurprisingly, the outlook is bleak, with only the 2012 Orioles and A’s receiving a lower WAR contribution and still reaching the playoffs. Of course, as Petriello notes, there’s reason to be optimistic for a rebound from Jedd Gyorko, and there’s still some upside in Yonder Alonso and Will Middlebrooks. The shortstop tandem of Alexi Amarista and Clint Barmes is likely to be a black hole offensively, however.
  • Peter Gammons is a bit skeptical of the Padres’ win-now tactics (Twitter links). As Gammons points out, while the team has created some buzz and bolstered its 2015 hopes, by 2017 they’ll have a 32-year-old Matt Kemp and 36-year-old Shields earning significant salaries, and they’ve either traded away their recent first-round picks or watched them flame out. The Padres have just two of their first rounders from 2009-14 still in the system in Hunter Renfroe and Cory Spangenberg, and they now don’t have a first-rounder in 2015. Trea Turner and Joe Ross were in the Wil Myers trade, Max Fried was used in the Justin Upton trade, Karsten Whitson didn’t sign (Spangenberg was selected as compensation the following year) and Donavan Tate was out of baseball last season. The team does still have some supplemental first-rounders in the system, while seventh-rounder Matt Wisler and second-rounder Austin Hedges have become Top 100 prospects.
  • Shields provides the Padres with some surprisingly much-needed innings, write Mark Simon and Justin Havens of ESPN. Though the Friars are typically thought of as having a strong pitching staff, their rotation has ranked 22nd or 23rd in innings in each of the past three seasons.

Padres Planning Aggressive Pursuit Of Yoan Moncada

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If there’s one thing this offseason has taught us, it’s that as soon as the Padres complete one big move, their sights apparently shift to another significant target. In this instance, on the heels of their agreement on a four-year deal with James Shields, the Padres are shifting their focus to Yoan Moncada. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports that the Padres are having a private workout with Moncada today and plan to bid aggressively on the 19-year-old Cuban phenom (Twitter link).

Moncada is the most coveted international amateur in recent history, as the switch-hitting, five-tool infielder is rumored to be in line for a bonus of anywhere from $30-40MM. Under the latest collective bargaining agreement, international prospects under the age of 23 and with less than five years of professional experience are subject to international bonus pools. Each team is assigned a bonus pool by MLB (based on their record from the previous season) and can spend up to that amount without penalty. However, the maximum penalties, which trigger at a 15 percent overage, include a 100 percent tax on every dollar spent over the pool limit as well as the loss of the ability to sign an international amateur for more than $300K in any of the two subsequent signing periods. Because of the overage taxes, a $30-40MM bonus would really mean a $60-80MM commitment.

Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets that he’s heard the Padres aren’t necessarily scared of having a $300K max signing bonus for the next two years if it means adding Moncada to their ranks. To this point, the Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox have been believed to be the favorites for Moncada. However, the Padres have shown an increased willingness to spend under new ownership and under the watch of new GM A.J. Preller, who specializes in the acquisition and evaluation of international talent. This would mark the second private workout the Padres have held for Moncada, as MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reported last week that the Padres had already seen him once. Other clubs to have held private workouts for Moncada include the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Brewers, Braves, Rays, Giants and Tigers.

James Shields’ Decision Expected “Soon”

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FEBRUARY 8TH, 7:52pm: The Padres’ offer to Shields four years and between $72-80MM, tweets FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi.

11:46am: People around baseball think it will wind up somewhere in the $72-$75MM range across four years, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets.  The Cubs are still a long shot, according to Bruce Levine of WSCR-AM (on Twitter).

10:45am: Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (on Twitter) expects Shields’ deal to be a four-year deal worth around $72-$80MM.

10:32am: Depending on the number of years, Shields, could sign for an annual average value of a little less than $20MM, according to Lin.

10:10am: The Cubs are seen as the major outside threat as things appear headed toward a resolution between Shields and the Padres, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.

Shields isn’t expected to come close to early $100MM projections and at this late juncture, baseball people say they believe he would do well to get anywhere close to $20MM per year.  It is believed multiple teams have showed a willingness to extend a three-year offer, and one interested GM said agent Page Odle suggested he had at least one four-year offer.

9:40am: A Padres source that spoke with Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (on Twitter) expressed confidence that San Diego sign Shields.

9:20am: Shields’ decision could come either today (Sunday) or Monday, according to Dennis Lin of U-T San Diego (via Twitter).  Lin hears that Shields was informed early on Saturday that the Padres has made their final offer.  Lin adds (link) that he’d be surprised if another team comes in and steals him away.

FEBRUARY 7TH, 7:04pm: Shields never rejected a five-year, $110 million offer, tweets Nightengale. While not pertinent to the present situation, it’s an interesting revelation. Earlier in the offseason, it was rumored that such an offer had been extended. When Shields didn’t sign, it was widely assumed the deal was rejected.

6:32pm: The outcome of the Padres offer is expected to be known within 24 hours, tweets Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

4:20pm: It’s not known which teams remain involved in the bidding, but one involved club was told that a decision is expected soon, tweets Nightengale.

4:07pm: The Padres “badly” want Shields and remain the favorites, but they’re being told that there are other teams still heavily involved in the bidding, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports. Meanwhile, Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio tweets that there’s no “impasse” between the two sides, but rather that Shields simply must decide whether or not to accept San Diego’s “last and final offer.”

2:43pm: The Padres and Shields are currently “at an impasse” after several hours of negotiations, tweets Miller. The ball is Shields’ court at this point, he adds.

1:31pm: The Padres are indeed the favorites to sign Shields, “if not a lock already,” reports MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro (on Twitter). Frisaro covers another team, the Marlins, who have been linked to Shields throughout the offseason.

11:15am: Talks between the Padres and James Shields “have heated up and are gaining momentum,” according to Scott Miller of FOX Sports San Diego/Bleacher Report (Twitter link). Shields, a native of Santa Clarita, Calif. (just 150 miles from San Diego), very much likes the idea of pitching in San Diego, Miller adds.

Last night, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that nothing was imminent between the two sides at this point, though he added that things could change quickly. Within his piece, Lin noted that Cole Hamels (a San Diego native himself) could be the team’s top target, but no club had yet come close to matching an asking price that many clubs believe to be exorbitant.

Rumors have been connecting the Padres and Shields for quite some time now. Adding an arm of his caliber to an already-strong rotation would be the icing of the cake, so to speak, on what has been a nearly unfathomably active offseason for first-year general manager A.J. Preller. The former Rangers executive was named GM in August and set out to transform the Padres’ low-scoring offense not with a lengthy rebuild, but by using his farm system to acquire several win-now bats. San Diego has added Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks this winter as well as relievers Shawn Kelley and Brandon Maurer while keeping the big league roster largely intact. The most notable subtractions from last year’s 25-man roster are Seth Smith, Yasmani Grandal and Jesse Hahn.

Shields, the prize of the remaining crop of free agents, is reportedly expected to make a decision on a destination before the weekend is complete. If signed, he’d join Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross and Ian Kennedy atop a strong group of starters and further the Friars’ chances of reaching the postseason for the first time since 2006.

West Notes: Padres, Athletics, Angels

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Much of the Padres’ pitching staff has remained intact this offseason while new GM A.J. Preller built a new offense alongside it, and the team’s returning pitchers are excited, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. “It’s been pretty cool seeing all the moves we made,” says Andrew Cashner. “This is my first year to have a chance to win.” Another Padres starter, Ian Kennedy, still has interest in exploring free agency after the season, but adds that “it’s hard not to notice” that the team has gotten better, in his view, both for 2015 into the future. Here’s more from the West divisions.

  • The Athletics acquired shortstop Yunel Escobar in the Ben Zobrist trade, then quickly shipped him to Washington for Tyler Clippard. Assistant GM David Forst says, however, that the A’s didn’t acquire Escobar with the intention of trading him, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. The Clippard deal took shape only after the completion of the Zobrist deal.
  • The Angels have improved their farm system in the past several months, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times writes. That’s not to say their farm system is great — they moved up from last in Baseball America’s organizational rankings in 2013 and 2014 to 27th this year. They did, however, pitchers Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano this winter, and drafted three more pitchers, Sean Newcomb, Joe Gatto and Chris Ellis, in June. Since Baseball America’s rankings went to press, the Angels have also added infielders Roberto Baldoquin and Kyle Kubitza. “It’s a better system than it was before,” says BA’s John Manuel. “There are some positive signs.”

West Notes: Cashner, Diamondbacks

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Single-franchise players like Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, and Chipper Jones are increasingly rare in baseball, writes Matt Yallof of MLB.com. The current longest tenured player is Chase Utley with parts of 13 seasons in Philadelphia. Former teammate Jimmy Rollins was traded to the Dodgers this offseason after 15 years in Philly. Another newly acquired Dodger – Howie Kendrick – was with the Angels for nine seasons. L.A. also shipped out a nine-year veteran in Matt Kemp. Here’s more from the West.

International Notes: Bell, Olivera, Moncada

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Cuban first baseman/third baseman Yosvani Bell has been unblocked by the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control and Major League Baseball, making him free to sign with teams, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes (Twitter link). Bell, who is represented by Bryce Dixon (Johnny Cueto’s agent), will host a showcase in San Pedro de Macoris in the Dominican Republic at month’s end, per Rojas. Bell also hosted a showcase for teams back in July, when he was 23 years of age, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (on Twitter). There’s been very little written on Bell to this point, but MLBTR will of course keep readers apprised of reports on the corner infielder if they become more readily available.

Here’s the latest on a pair of international prospects that have had no shortage of ink dedicated to their names…

  • The Dodgers still have legitimate reservations about going after Moncada given the high price he is expected to command, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick reports. The club’s ultimate interest level remains somewhat unclear, per the report, in spite of previous statements by GM Farhan Zaidi that the team would be “players” for Moncada “to the extent that our evaluation of him matches or exceeds where the market goes.”

Earlier Updates

  • Hector Olivera was extremely impressive in a game setting at his second open showcase today, reports Ben Badler of Baseball America. The right-handed hitting, 29-year-old second baseman ripped a pair of home runs and also hit a double to the opposite field gap. Olivera split his time between second base and third base and also showed an above-average time in the 60-yard dash (6.65 seconds) prior to the game. The Dodgers had the most notable presence in attendance, per Badler, with VP of baseball operations Josh Byrnes among those in attendance. The D-Backs had their own VP of baseball operations, De Jon Watson, in attendance, and the Giants were well-represented, too. According to Badler, the Padres, Giants and Braves have all had their top scouts watching Olivera recently, and he’s also been seen by Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik and president Kevin Mather. (Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweeted last night, however, not to read too much into the Mariners’ presence at a workout; they were in the Dominican for organizational meetings at the time already.)
  • The Brewers are interested in Yoan Moncada and will keep tabs on him, writes MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, though he notes that Milwaukee is not likely to sign the 19-year-old. The Brewers sent at least six people to watch Moncada in a private workout, including pro scouting director Zack Minasian, amateur scouting director Doug Reynolds and senior director of baseball operations Tom Flanagan, per McCalvy. However, GM Doug Melvin said that while the reports on Moncada were unsurprisingly positive, he didn’t want to tip his hand with other teams in negotiation.
  • McCalvy also notes that while the Brewers are an unlikely landing spot, the team did make a six-year, $64MM offer to Jose Abreu prior to his contract with the White Sox, though the team had some concerns that it was used more as a bargaining chip. Of course, it has to be noted that being willing to offer a 26-year-old MLB-ready first baseman a sizable Major League deal certainly does not mean they’ll be comfortable offering a similar, if not larger sum to a 19-year-old prospect in the form of a signing bonus.
  • The Giants feel that they are long shots in the Moncada sweepstakes, general manager Brian Sabean told reporters, including John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link). Some have speculated that the Giants would be in on Moncada after showing a willingness to spend on both Jon Lester and Pablo Sandoval but failing to secure either player this winter.

James Shields Rumors: Friday

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The latest reports on the James Shields front from Thursday had the Padres as the likely favorites to sign the right-hander, with the Cubs and Blue Jays on the periphery of the talks. Shields is reportedly expected to come to a decision by the time this weekend comes to a close, so resolution to his lengthy free agency saga could be nigh. Here’s the latest on the former Royals righty…

  • Whether or not the Padres are the favorites to sign Shields, they have not spoken with his camp in over 24 hours, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. Agreement does not appear imminent, per the report, though San Diego has discussed numbers with Shields.

Earlier Updates

  • Cubs manager Joe Maddon tells MLB Network Radio (Twitter link) that club president of baseball operations Theo Epstein spoke with him about the prospect of signing the righty. Those comments certainly confirm prior reports that the team has had some internal consideration of the possibility, though of course it remains unclear exactly what level of interest Chicago has (and at what price it might bite).
  • Astros owner Jim Crane told Jose De Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle that he doesn’t envision his team signing Shields. Some have speculated that Houston could be a sleeper for Shields, with the fruits of their rebuilding efforts on the brink of Major League contribution. However, Crane cited the lack of TV revenue from 2014 and Shields’ age as factors. “With the (local) TV money not coming in last year, that really hurt. That was over $50 million that we did not receive,” said Crane, who also added that he’s not sure the team is quite ready to begin making four-year investments. He did note that the Astros would have to consider the move “if we got a good deal.”
  • There’s a growing sense among those involved in Shields talks that he will end up with the Padres, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN.com.
  • The Padres are believed to have a max payroll of about $105MM in 2015, reports Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). As such, Lin feels that an addition of Shields is very possible for the Friars. San Diego currently projects to have a payroll around $84MM, thanks to the $18MM of Matt Kemp’s 2015 salary that will be picked up by the Dodgers.

James Shields Rumors: Thursday

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The market for James Shields is picking up steam, to say the least, with multiple reports indicating that he could decide upon a team before this weekend comes to a close. As of yesterday, the Marlins were still said to be in talks for Shields, with the Cubs “kicking the tires.” The Padres were indirectly connected to Shields, as reports had them seeking a top-end starter, though Shields was not mentioned by name.

Here are today’s Shields-related items…

  • “The Padres…have to be considered favorites for” Shields, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  The fact that Shields lives in San Diego could indeed give the Padres the edge, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman writes.
  • While the Padres are indeed “among the favorites” for Shields, Heyman reports that “a few other teams, including at least one surprise” are in contact with Shields’ camp.  A person connected to the Cubs tells Heyman that Chicago could get involved in Shields’ market if his price falls significantly; the Cubs’ interest in Shields was first reported yesterday.
  • The Blue Jays are “kicking the tires” on Shields, which is a surprise to Heyman given their payroll limitations.  This isn’t the first time Toronto has been linked to Shields, though it remains to be seen if the Jays can create the financial space to sign Shields even at a lowered price tag.

Earlier Updates

  • The Dodgers are currently focused on international stars Yoan Moncada and Hector Olivera and not Shields, tweets Hall of Fame journalist Peter Gammons. Many have speculated that the Dodgers could make a play based not only on their deep pockets but on the presence of former Rays GM Andrew Friedman atop the new L.A. baseball operations department.
  • Multiple sources have told Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald that they do not expect the Marlins to sign Shields. One source characterized the chances as “zero percent.” For what it’s worth, others have also reported the chances as “zero,” only to have rumors of talks between the two sides resurface. Ultimately, however, it seems that the Fish are long shots. Shields’ reported desire to play for a team on the West Coast and the Marlins’ limited payroll are both detrimental factors.
  • Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has been told by sources in recent weeks that the Cardinals “are not a team with interest.” As Goold outlines, the Cardinals may be wary not only of forfeiting a draft pick but of forfeiting the portion of their draft bonus pool that would go along with it. Based on last year’s slot figures, signing Shields would cost St. Louis 28.3 percent of its bonus pool.
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