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Super Two Cutoff To Be 2.139

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Players with at least two years and 139 days of service time will be eligible for the potentially lucrative arbitration process this offseason, according to the Associated Press (via FOXNews.com). The top 22% of players with between two and three years of MLB service qualify for arbitration under baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement.

Nationals reliever Drew Storen, Padres shortstop Everth Cabrera, Mets catcher Josh Thole, Rays outfielder Sam Fuld, Rockies outfielder Tyler Colvin and Diamondbacks third baseman Chris Johnson are all eligible. 

Mariners outfielder Michael Saunders missed the cutoff by one day. Others, including Justin Smoak, Danny Valencia, Michael Brantley, Jordan Schafer, Giancarlo Stanton, Stephen Strasburg, Daniel Hudson, Dan Runzler, Andrew Cashner, Alex Burnett, Esmil Rogers and Alexi Ogando, came close to super two status without reaching the threshold.

Jonathan Lucroy, whose contract includes escalators related to super two status, will fall three days short of arbitration eligibility. The difference will cost him $2MM, as I explained last month.

Super two status entitles certain players to four years of arbitration eligibility, rather than the usual three. As a result, players who earn the super two designation generally earn more than their peers. The cutoff would have been two years and 144 days under baseball’s previous collective bargaining agreement, according to the AP. In previous years the top 17% of players with between two and three years of MLB service qualified. The players and owners agreed to a new system last fall.

Padres To Release Micah Owings

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The Padres have requested unconditional release waivers for right-hander Micah Owings, Corey Brock of MLB.com reports (on Twitter). The Legacy Sports Group client will hit free agency after he clears release waivers.

The move amounts to an early non-tender for Owings, who would have been arbitration eligible for the third time this coming offseason. He had been a non-tender candidate after missing most of the season with an elbow injury, so the move doesn't come as a surprise. Owings, 30, appeared in just six games this past season. He underwent season-ending arthroscopic elbow surgery in July and didn't pitch after April.

Maysonet, Hernandez, Palmer Declare Free Agency

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Infielders Edwin Maysonet and Luis Hernandez and pitchers Matt Palmer and Juan Perez have declared free agency, according to the transactions page of the Pacific Coast League. All four had seen time on MLB rosters in 2012, before being outrighted to Triple-A.

Maysonet and Perez both saw action with the Brewers this year. Maysonet appeared in 30 games with a slash line of .250/.297/.350, including a game-winning grand slam against the Cubs on May 12, while playing shortstop, second and third base. Perez, a left-hander, appeared in ten games posting 12.9 K/9, 10.3 BB/9, and 2.6 HR/9 in only seven innings of work.

Hernandez played two games for the Rangers in August. He spent the rest of the year at Triple-A Round Rock batting .262/.303/.376 in 129 games, all but one at shortstop and second base. Hernandez also has MLB experience with the Orioles, Royals and Mets.

Palmer, a right-hander, pitched in three games for the Padres in late May before being outrighted to Triple-A. With Tucson, Palmer started 20 of the 21 games in which he appeared posting a 5.66 ERA with 5.8 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9.   

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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The Padres will look for starting pitching this offseason as they aim to re-establish themselves as an NL West contender.

Guaranteed Contracts 

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

With new ownership and a new television contract in place, there's optimism that the Padres can expand payroll in the relatively near future. Though the newly-approved, Ron Fowler-led ownership group has not revealed precisely where payroll will sit, GM Josh Byrnes recently indicated to Barry Bloom that it could increase. Regardless of how much money he has at his disposal, Byrnes is expected to prioritize starting pitching in the team's first offseason under new ownership. 

Chase Headley - Padres (PW)

The Padres have $30MM committed to the 2013 payroll, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. San Diego's class of arbitration eligible players looks unusually large again this offseason, so much of the team's remaining flexibility will go toward players in their arb years. 

Chase Headley (pictured) will be of particular interest following a season in which he emerged as an elite offensive producer despite Petco Park's pitcher-friendly tendencies. His salary could reach the $7MM range through the arbitration process, so he's not the bargain he once was. He's only going to get more expensive, and could command $50-80MM on an extension.

There are indications the new ownership group will spend to keep Headley, but if they aren't willing to do so, they should consider trading him. It might be difficult for fans to tolerate the move just one year after the Mat Latos trade and two years after the Adrian Gonzalez trade. Yet there's no sense in losing a franchise player for nothing but a draft pick when multiple MLB-ready prospects would be available in trades. The Padres have helped develop one of the game's top farm systems by trading elite MLB players before they become prohibitively expensive. If the team's new ownership group continues operating on one of the league's smallest payrolls, Byrnes will have to consider parting with Headley. At a time that teams such as the Braves, Phillies, White Sox and Diamondbacks could be in the market for third base help, demand for a player of Headley's caliber would be overwhelming. Hopefully for Padres fans, ownership decides to spend at a level that can accommodate an elite player as he approaches free agency. If not, the Padres must re-consider trading Headley.

Though the Padres out-scored just six teams this past season, they now seem set at most positions. They got an early start on the offseason by signing Carlos Quentin to a three-year contract and extending Chris Denorfia, the right-handed hitting platoon partner for Will Venable, on a modest two-year deal. These signings solidify an outfield that includes Venable, Cameron Maybin and Jesus Guzman, who also thrives against left-handed pitching.

The Padres also have enough internal options to pass on a relatively weak class of free agent infielders. Headley, Yonder Alonso, Logan Forsythe and Everth Cabrera have earned places atop the team’s depth chart, and Jedd Gyorko also figures to get the chance to contribute next year. San Diego struggled against right-handed pitching this past year, so if Byrnes can find a way to supplement Forsythe, yet another lefty masher, with a left-handed hitting second base backup he should do so.

The Padres could cut ties with arbitration eligible pitchers Tim Stauffer, Dustin Moseley and Micah Owings. Stauffer, a valuable contributor from 2009-11, appeared in just one game this past year because of an elbow injury. He'd earn $3MM or so if tendered a contract, so it's hard to argue that a low-budget team should retain him through the arbitration process. Similarly, Moseley appeared in just one game for the Padres in 2012. He underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in April and should also be non-tendered given his current salary of $2.01MM.

John Baker could be deemed expendable now that Nick Hundley and Yasmani Grandal are in place at catcher, so he's a non-tender or trade candidate. Kyle Blanks, the former top prospect who underwent season-ending labrum surgery in April, can expect a contract offer despite his lost season.

As mentioned, the rotation will be an offseason focus for San Diego. Presently it includes few sure things other than Clayton Richard and Edinson Volquez. Promising arms such as Andrew Cashner and Casey Kelly could make an impact and Cory Luebke and Joe Wieland could return from injuries midway through the 2013 season. But Byrnes intends to add starters from outside of the organization following a season in which Richard and Volquez were the only pitchers to start more than 15 games.

Fly ball prone free agents such as Carlos Villanueva, Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy and Jeremy Guthrie could succeed in Petco Park and they figure to be in the Padres' price range. Former Padres ace Jake Peavy, another free agent who allows his share of fly balls, could appeal to the Padres on a short-term deal, but he has significant leverage as one of the top pitchers available. An the other end of the spectrum, Carl Pavano and Daisuke Matsuzaka could be worth adding for a minimal commitment.

The Padres had a strong finish to the 2012 season, winning 42 of 75 second half games. To improve the chances that this success continues in 2013, Byrnes must obtain starting pitching depth over the winter. Extending Headley would be a reassuring move, though a new deal doesn't have to be reached at this time. Over the course of the first offseason since the sale of the club was completed we're sure to learn a lot about just how aggressive new ownership intends to be.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Minor Moves: Slaten, Ohlendorf, Conrad

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We'll keep track of today's minor moves in this post..

  • Pirates left-hander Doug Slaten, Padres right-hander Ross Ohlendorf, and Rays third baseman Brooks Conrad are free agents after recent outright assignments, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America (via Twitter).  Slaten appeared in ten major league games for Pittsburgh while posting a 2.11 ERA with 5.1 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 40 relief appearances in Triple-A.  Ohlendorf had a 7.77 ERA with 39 strikeouts and 24 walks in nine starts and four relief appearances for the Padres over the summer.  Conrad saw time in 49 games for the Rays and Brewers in 2012.

Managerial Notes: Red Sox, Rockies

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The latest managerial news from around MLB…

  • The Red Sox have contacted Dodgers third base coach Tim Wallach to determine his interest in their managerial opening, Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald reports. Wallach is interested and the Red Sox are expected to interview him in the coming days. 
  • Boston continues to target Blue Jays manager John Farrell, Silverman reports. However, hiring Farrell could involve compensation or take a long time, so the club's exploring options such as Wallach, who also drew interest from Boston last offseason. Padres special assistant Brad Ausmus is believed to be on Boston's list of possible candidates.
  • The Red Sox intend to start interviews related to their managerial opening on Friday, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. The process will likely continue over the weekend and early next week, Bradford reports.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports outlines the Rockies' managerial options, including Wallach. Under Colorado's new front office structure, director of Major League operations Bill Geivett assumes some of the responsibilities that would traditionally go to the field manager.
  • MLBTR had two sets of managerial links yesterday which are worth checking out.

Quick Hits: Braves, Leyland, Soriano, Phillies, Rays

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Depending on what happens with Michael Bourn, the Braves could potentially have two major holes to fill in their lineup.  Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req'd) offers some suggestions for replacing Bourn and Chipper Jones and notes that the club could have some added flexibility if Martin Prado can be shifted from left field to third base.  Ben Revere of the Twins, Peter Bourjos of the Angels, and Chris Young of the Diamondbacks could all be trade targets in center field.  There aren't a lot of great third base options on the open market but Atlanta could zero in on guys like Mike Olt of the Rangers, Chase Headley of the Padres, and maybe even the Mets David Wright.  Here's more from around baseball..

  • Tigers manager Jim Leyland has been telling people in recent days that he has no plans to retire, according to Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com.  Given his desire to return, it's likely that Leyland will be managing the Tigers in 2013.  Leyland's contract expires at the end of the season.
  • Even though he has been linked the Marlins opening, Mike Lowell tells Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com that he has no interest in managing at this point in his life.  The former third baseman is currently working for the MLB Network as an on-air analyst.
  • The Yankees' desire to keep their payroll under $189MM in 2014 could complicate their chances to sign Rafael Soriano to a long-term deal once he opts out, writes Heyman.  Soriano's three-year, $35MM deal seemed like a stretch last year but it now seems like the Bombers view the possibility of a last year at $14MM more favorably than the right-hander.
  • The members of the Philadelphia Daily News staff bring us their suggestions for retooling the club heading into 2013.  David Murphy believes that Ruben Amaro & Co. should start by revamping the bullpen while Marcus Hayes writes that the club should stick to making small moves while allowing the younger players to flourish.
  • Bill Parker of DRays Bay looks in the rear view mirror to discuss what the Rays could have done differently in 2012.  The trade of John Jaso to the Mariners for Josh Lueke was among the missteps highlighted.

Arbitration Eligibles: San Diego Padres

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The Padres are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  With a dozen players, they have one of the largest arbitration groups.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

In Moseley, Owings, Stauffer, and Blanks, the Padres have four arbitration eligible players who barely played in 2012 due to injury.  Moseley had April shoulder surgery and is likely to be cut loose.  Owings, who wants to focus on being a position player, had elbow surgery in July and is another likely non-tender.  

Paying Stauffer $3.2MM again would be risky given his August 31st surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his elbow.  Padres manager Bud Black told MLB.com's Corey Brock Stauffer will be "ready to go by Spring Training," but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be tendered a contract next month.  The 30-year-old had a breakout 2011 season and was ticketed for the 2012 Opening Day nod, so clearly there's talent here.  The ideal scenario for the Padres would be to non-tender Stauffer and then quickly re-sign him for less guaranteed money.  Failing that, they could tender him a contract and, if things look bleak in Spring Training, cut him then and owe about $530K.

Blanks had been ticketed for the minors, in which case he would not have been arbitration eligible, but he found his way onto the Padres' 25-man roster due to Carlos Quentin's injury.  Blanks quickly went down with season-ending shoulder surgery, but the 26-year-old is still interesting and cheap enough that the Padres wouldn't be risking much by tendering him a contract and seeing how he looks in Spring Training. 

Baker seems a capable backup catcher, and he actually caught as many games for the Padres as Yasmani Grandal and Nick Hundley this year.  Grandal is the clear starter for 2013, and Hundley might have first track at the backup job given the $7MM guaranteed to him through 2014.  The Padres still seem likely to retain Baker, so maybe Hundley will become trade bait.

Richard and Volquez emerged as the leaders of the Padres' rotation this year and are locked in for 2013. Volquez, the more explosive pitcher of the pair, will be entering his walk year and would like to remain with the club beyond 2013.  He seems to prevent home runs and hits enough to survive in Petco despite an MLB-leading walk total.  Richard might be Volquez's mirror image, with a stellar walk rate and MLB-worst hits allowed total.  I wouldn't attempt to lock up either pitcher at this point.

Relievers Thatcher and Gregerson had solid campaigns, with Gregerson picking up nine saves and 24 holds.  Thatcher will soon undergo knee surgery that could have him behind in Spring Training, but I see no reason the Padres wouldn't keep him around.  Venable did a nice job as the team's primary right fielder, especially away from Petco.  Cabrera provided value on the basepaths, and while the rest of his game is lacking, he'll be tendered a contract as an expected Super Two player.

Near the trade deadline, a Headley deal was actually considered likely, but GM Josh Byrnes wisely kept his asking price high.  The 28-year-old third baseman stayed with the Padres and went off in the season's final two months, to a point where MVP votes would be justified.  Matt Swartz has Headley, a client of Hendricks Sports, snagging nearly a $5MM raise en route to an $8.3MM salary.  Headley qualified as a Super Two player in 2010, so this will be his third time through arbitration and he'll have one more after that.

Headley's agency hasn't done many arbitration year extensions in recent years, though Byrnes is no stranger to such contracts.  Though the Padres' GM might prefer to use some 2013 data to determine whether Headley is an MVP-caliber player or more of an above-average regular, the price goes up the longer he waits.  One potential comparable is Kevin Youkilis, who signed a four-year, $41.25MM deal with the Red Sox after a breakout '08 season, also with four-plus years of service.  A more recent comp might be Alex Gordon's four-year deal, worth $50MM if he exercises a player option at the end.

Assuming Moseley, Owings, and Stauffer are non-tendered and no one signs a multiyear extension, we're estimating $27.4MM in salary for nine remaining arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Everth Cabrera Leaves ACES

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Padres shortstop Everth Cabrera has left the ACES agency run by Seth and Sam Levinson, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Cabrera is the third player to leave ACES this week following Shane Victorino and Nyjer Morgan. ACES has come under a cloud because of the PED suspension of client Melky Cabrera (no relation to Everth) and a related investigation by MLB into the agency's links to a steroid distributor.

Cabrera, who will likely make more than $1MM through arbitration next year as a Super Two player, became the Padres' starting shortstop upon his recall from Triple-A in mid-May. He led the NL in stolen bases with 44 despite playing in only 115 games. In addition to his stolen base crown, Cabrera posted a batting line of .246/324/.324.

No word on who Cabrera has chosen to represent him. Check out MLBTR's Agency Database for information on player representatives from around the game. 

Minor Moves: 28 Players Elect Free Agency

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A total of 28 players — all with big league time under their belts — recently elected free agency after finishing the year in Triple-A. Here is the full list, courtesy of the International League and Pacific Coast League transaction pages…

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