Padres Rumors

There are two reasons to sign a player to a multiyear contract extension before he's arbitration eligible.  One is to get a discount on the player's arbitration years as a tradeoff for guaranteeing them, and the other is to secure free agent seasons.  The Padres accomplished only one of these in signing center fielder Cameron Maybin to a five-year, $25MM extension on Saturday.

Arbitration hearings lag well behind the times in terms of the statistics argued by teams and agencies.  Arbitration panels consist of three base-level baseball people, and it's generally considered too risky to attempt to educate them about an advanced metric, prove its validity, and a present a strong case for the player within an hour.  That's why it wasn't surprising when Matt Swartz's arbitration model for MLB Trade Rumors proved that playing time and power matter most in arbitration salaries for position players, and even batting average and steals "pale in importance to the almighty HR and RBI."  Matt demonstrated that position doesn't affect salary much either.

MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith zeroed in on this point in his January Maybin extension candidate article.  Maybin was quite valuable in 2011, tallying 4.7 wins above replacement according to FanGraphs.  However, he accumulated this value almost entirely through skills that are rarely recognized in arbitration salaries, such as defense, baserunning, and playing a difficult position.  Assuming Maybin were to just keep repeating his 2011 season – a generous playing time assumption – Matt Swartz projects arbitration salaries of $2.4MM in 2013, $3.8MM in 2014, and $5.2MM in 2015, for a total of $11.4MM.  As part of the new five-year deal, Maybin will receive $15MM for that stretch of his career. 

Maybin's 140 pro games in 2011 marked a career-best; he's always battled injuries.  Playing time is a significant factor in arbitration salaries.  Not only did the Padres lose the chance to pay Maybin less during his arbitration years if he misses significant time due to injury, but they overpaid him by an estimated $3.6MM even if good health is assumed.  Perhaps Maybin's contract was modeled off Franklin Gutierrez's January 2010 deal with the Mariners, itself a clear overpay at the time for the same reasons.  One key difference is that the 24-year-old Maybin has plenty of offensive upside remaining, and if the former first-rounder realizes what was once considered "wicked raw power" by Baseball America, he could justify arbitration earnings in excess of $15MM.

As I mentioned, Padres GM Josh Byrnes received another benefit by locking up Maybin: the center fielder's first free agent year at $8MM and a club option for another at $9MM.  Even if Maybin does not take another leap forward with the bat, those 2016 and '17 salaries will still be considered good value relative to free agent prices.  With today's savvy front offices, free agency will likely continue to appreciate defense and position scarcity more and more.  As of right now, though, Maybin's agent Brian Goldberg is the winner, having secured $25MM for a player coming off a 137-game season in which he batted .264 with nine home runs and 40 RBI.

10:43am: It's a five-year contract worth $23-25MM with a $7-8MM option for a sixth year, reports Hayes (Twitter links). The deal buys out Maybin's final pre-arbitration season, all three seasons of arbitration-eligibility, and one free agent year with an option for second.

9:54am: The Padres and Cameron Maybin are "very close" to a contract extension, reports Dan Hayes of The North County Times. Maybin is a Brian Goldberg client. Terms are unknown, but the deal is likely to be announced later today. 

Maybin, 24, enjoyed a breakout season in San Diego last summer after being acquired from the Marlins for Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica. He hit .264/.323/.393 with nine homers and 40 steals overall, but like most players he was much more productive away from Petco Park: .294/.349/.457 with seven homers. Maybin is also considered a strong defensive center fielder, ranking third at the position with a +9.5 UZR in 2011.

The two sides have been talking about a long-term extension most of the offseason. Ben Nicholson-Smith suggested that the five-year contract worth $21-22MM could work for both parties back in January. Maybin will be arbitration-eligible for the first time after this season and can not become a free agent until after 2015.

As our Extension Tracker shows, the Padres have not signed a player to an extension longer than three years since Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young in April 2007. Jake Peavy signed a three-year, $52MM extension in December 2007 and Jason Bartlett signed a two-year, $11MM deal last January.

This post was originally published on March 3rd.

The Padres continue discussing a long-term extension with center fielder Cameron Maybin, Dan Hayes of the North County Times reports. The sides are optimistic about reaching a deal and have an unofficial March 1st deadline in place. 

Talks about a five year extension started  earlier in the offseason, but stopped around the time Maybin switched agents. The 24-year-old Brian Goldberg client says he's focused on preparing for the season, not the possibility of a new contract.

Maybin posted a .264/.323/.393 line in 2011 and plays better-than-average defense in center field, according to UZR/150. He's not yet arbitration eligible and will remain under team control through 2015. I explained last month that I believe a five-year deal in the $21-22MM range could work for Maybin and the Padres.