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NL West Links: Hill, Gutierrez, Bell

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Some notes from the NL West….

  • Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers spoke with Aaron Hill's agent this week, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The two sides made little progress and didn't exchange figures, but Towers said another talk is tentatively scheduled for next week. Hill hit .215/.386/.492 in 142 plate appearances for the Snakes after being dealt from the Blue Jays, but Towers said he isn't necessarily looking at a multi-year deal for Hill since he doesn't "want to get too crazy about six weeks [of production]. There’s a reason they moved him and a reason we moved Kelly Johnson.”
  • Also from Piecoro's piece, the recently-released Juan Gutierrez said he expected the move and hopes to re-sign with the D'Backs on a minor league deal. Gutierrez underwent Tommy John surgery in September.
  • The Padres are willing to give Heath Bell a two-year, $15-$16MM contract with an option for a third year, reports Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune as part of an online chat with fans. Bell wants three years guaranteed, but Center wonders if the closer would accept a two-year deal with a partial no-trade clause. Center discusses several other Padres topics during the chat, including what he would want in a possible Mat Latos trade and Kyle Blanks' future with the team.

Cubs Notes: Epstein, Byrnes, Pena

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The Cubs and Red Sox are now discussing compensation for GM Theo Epstein. Here are the latest Cubs-related notes as we await an official announcement about the leadership change…

  • There’s a “good chance” that Epstein hires Padres executive Josh Byrnes to work with him in Chicago, according to Tom Krasovic of Inside the Padres (on Twitter). Byrnes, the D’Backs’ former GM, worked with Epstein in Boston.
  • Carlos Pena told the Chicago Sun-Times that he's excited to see what the Cubs can do under Epstein. Pena, a free agent after the season, hinted that Epstein's presence makes Chicago an even more desirable place to play.
  • Bradley Woodrum of CubsStats.com loves the Epstein hire for the Cubs, but wouldn't trade prospect Brett Jackson for the rights to the new GM.
  • Check out Tim Dierkes' preview of the Cubs' offseason.

Padres Declining Qualls, Hawpe Options; Undecided On Harang

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The Padres will be declining the $6MM options for Chad Qualls and Brad Hawpe for next season.  GM Jed Hoyer broke the news during a radio appearance on XX1090's The Darren Smith Show (Twitter link from producer Marty Caswell).  Hoyer also said the team was still mulling over whether or not to pick up its side of Aaron Harang's $5MM mutual option for next season.

Qualls will receive a $1.05MM buyout from the Padres but still could be back in San Diego next year, as we've heard the team has an interest in re-signing him at a lower price.  After a disastrous 2010 campaign that saw him lose the closer's job in Arizona and get dealt to Tampa Bay, Qualls rebounded in 2011 to deliver a 3.51 ERA and 2.15 K/BB ratio in 77 games for the Padres.  Qualls had some pretty severe home/away splits (a 2.09 ERA at Petco Park and a 5.05 ERA on the road), so there's a decent chance he'll choose to remain in San Diego.

It was no surprise that the Padres parted ways with Hawpe after the veteran missed most of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June.  Hawpe only hit .231/.301/.344 in 216 plate appearances for San Diego.  Hawpe had a $6MM mutual option for 2012 that the Padres will pay $1MM to buy out.

Harang, like Qualls, underwent a bit of a career revival pitching at Petco Park — a 3.05 ERA in 17 home starts and a 4.70 ERA in 11 road starts for an overall 3.64 ERA for the season.  Harang will turn 34 next year so this could be his last chance at a multiyear deal if another team chooses to ignore his home/away splits.  Harang could decline his half of the mutual option and test the market, though if he doesn't find a multiyear contract, he could lose his chance at coming back to San Diego since the Friars will have their pick of veterans looking for a Petco Park boost.   

Hoyer also addressed recent rumors connecting manager Bud Black to the vacant general manager's job with the Angels, saying that the Halos hadn't asked the Padres for permission to interview Black and that Black is happy in San Diego.  Hoyer also said that the club has made offers to Heath Bell, but didn't confirm Jon Heyman's recent report that the Padres offered their closer a two-year, $14MM contract.  (Both links are to Caswell's Twitter feed.)

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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Prepare for another offseason of short-term free agent deals from the Padres in their attempt to stop the bleeding on a perennially lousy offense.  The Friars also have more bullpen patchwork ahead than usual.

Guaranteed Contracts

Contractual Options

  • Aaron Harang, Type B SP: $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
  • Brad Hawpe, unranked 1B: $6MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
  • Chad Qualls, unranked RP: $6MM club option with a $1.05MM buyout

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

Talk about a lack of commitments.  The Padres owe $11MM to their starting middle infield for 2012, and nothing beyond that.  GM Jed Hoyer has a clean slate and a payroll expected to be in the $53-55MM range, the team's highest since '08.  As I showed last week, Hoyer should have $20MM+ to work with in 2012 payroll flexibility.  At a September 29th press briefing, the GM was clear about his offseason goals.  He plans to add veteran leadership, rebuild the bullpen, cut down on strikeouts, improve the bench, and add a corner outfielder.

The 2011 Padres ranked third in ERA among NL relief squads.  However, they traded Mike Adams and Qualls and Bell are free agents.  Cory Luebke will stick in the rotation, following a midseason shift.  Those four pitchers accounted for 46% of the team's relief innings and a 2.65 ERA.  The Padres will probably be looking to make multiple Qualls-type signings, snapping up decent arms on one-year deals in the $3MM range.  The team will find plenty of willing applicants, as usual given their ballpark.  

Bell probably should have been traded too.  The closer doesn't appear interested in the team's reported proposal of two years at about $14MM and has announced his intention to deny them a chance at draft picks by accepting arbitration.  I wouldn't go much higher on a contract offer, so the best move now is to offer arbitration and see if Bell still prefers to stay in San Diego on a one-year deal.  I'm not sure that's really best for him — he's 34, he's never had a multiyear deal, and his strikeout rate took a big dip this year.  He'd probably have to endure another summer of trade rumors, too.  This offseason might be his best chance for multiyear security, and his agency could probably find a team willing to guarantee three years.  

Cutting down on strikeouts and adding a corner outfielder might have to be accomplished with one player, as the Padres' infield appears set.  Corner outfield free agents with high contact rates include Juan Pierre, Endy Chavez, and Coco Crisp.

This offseason might be a good time to shop Headley.  He's a useful player but light on power, and the Padres have third base candidates coming up in the farm system.  Power pays in arbitration, so Headley's affordability adds to his trade value.  It doesn't hurt that the free agent market offers almost nothing at his position, aside from Aramis Ramirez.  This offseason is also a good time to lock up center fielder Cameron Maybin, who was worth nearly five wins above replacement this year in a breakout season.

For the second season in a row, the Padres' rotation ERA ranked fourth in the National League.  Mat Latos, Stauffer, and Luebke make for a solid front three.  Harang or a veteran of his ilk should take another spot, perhaps with Richard and Moseley battling for the last.

The cosmetic changes discussed in this post probably won't make the Padres a contender.  They haven't ranked in the upper half of the National League in runs scored since they placed eighth in 2004, the year Petco Park opened.  With Anthony Rizzo, Jedd Gyorko, James Darnell, Rymer Liriano, and others, the team has young hitters on the way.  Several of them will need to produce at the Major League level for this team to return to prominence.

Quick Hits: Angels, Astros, Bartlett, Konerko

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The Tigers defeated the Rangers tonight and they now trail two games to one in the ALCS. Detroit could even the series at two games if they win at home tomorrow afternoon. Here are today's links…

  • The Angels have D'Backs exec Jerry Dipoto and Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer on their list of GM candidates, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (Twitter link). We recently introduced Dipoto and Oppenheimer as part of our GM Candidates series.
  • Astros owner Drayton McLane told Stephen Goff of the Houston Astros Examiner that he'll complete the ownership transfer to Jim Crane, though it could take three or four weeks (all Twitter links).
  • The Astros announced that they have agreed to one-year deals with hitting coach Mike Barnett and pitching coach Doug Brocail.
  • MLBTR's Tim Dierkes learned that Jason Bartlett's $5.5MM club option for 2013 vests if he picks up 432 plate appearances in '12 (Twitter link). That would give the Padres infielder 1050 trips to the plate in 2011-12.
  • White Sox GM Kenny Williams admitted to reporters that he considered Paul Konerko as a possible player-manager before hiring rookie skipper Robin Ventura. "He would probably drive himself nuts right now playing and managing at the same time," Williams said, according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.
  • Nolan Ryan wouldn't predict the Rangers' chances of re-signing C.J. Wilson, according to Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com. Ryan says the Rangers will start negotiating with Wilson's agent once their season ends.
  • Joel Zumaya told reporters, including Jason Beck of MLB.com, that he'd like to re-sign with the Tigers after the season. The hard-throwing right-hander didn't pitch this year because of elbow soreness and has started throwing again.
  • As J.J. Cooper of Baseball America explains, young players are being squeezed out of independent baseball. But some, such as Marshall Schuler of the Frontier League, could become options for MLB teams.

NL East Notes: K-Rod, Riggleman, Geren, Walker

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Ten years ago today, the Braves signed 16-year-old right-hander Jose Ascanio out of Venezuela. Six years later they traded him to the Cubs for Omar Infante and Will Ohman, and two years after that he was part of a package for Tom Gorzelanny and John Grabow. Here are some links from the NL East…

Poll: Ryan Madson Vs. Heath Bell

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Most statistics say Phillies closer Ryan Madson had a better 2011 than Padres stopper Heath Bell.  Madson is three years younger, but Bell has tallied three consecutive 40-save seasons.  Both righties are Type A free agents, and guessing their contracts is an interesting exercise.

In the last three years, Madson has increased his strikeout rate to more than a batter per inning while maintaining strong walk and groundball rates.  He had a reputation as someone who was better off in the eighth than the ninth inning heading into this year, but Madson silenced those critics by converting 32 of 34 opportunities once pressed into duty.  He's represented by Scott Boras, and will find a three-year deal with ease.  No free agent reliever has gotten a four-year deal since Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink four years ago, but I think Madson has a shot.

Bell experienced a marked decline in strikeout rate this year, showing signs of his old rate only in September.  He still limited hits and home runs and converted 43 of 48 save opportunities.  Bell wants and expects to remain in San Diego, saying in August that he'd accept arbitration if the Padres offer.  Padres owner Jeff Moorad said one year was preferable to the team in some ways.  It was reported later that month that the Padres offered a two-year, $14MM deal while Bell was seeking $27-30MM over three years.  Bell is represented by ACES, an agency known for getting strong multiyear deals for veteran free agents.

For the sake of argument, let's say both relievers reach the open market.  That's not hard to picture with Madson, who will certainly cost a draft pick to sign.  For Bell to reach the open market, the Padres would probably have to decline to offer him arbitration.  So in this scenario Madson costs a draft pick to sign and Bell does not.  Working under these assumptions, which reliever gets a bigger overall contract, Madson or Bell? 

Cafardo On Epstein, Red Sox, Sabathia, Rays

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If Theo Epstein winds up taking the Cubs' GM job, then the spotlight again will be directed at Red Sox president/CEO Larry Lucchino, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.  Even if the club tabbed longtime exec Ben Cherington as general manager, it would take time before Cherington would have complete control over the operations.  Here's more from Cafardo..

  • There's growing sentiment that C.C. Sabathia will opt out of his contract with the Yankees.  The Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Tigers, and Giants are among the usual suspects if the lefty hits the open market.  Boston, however, might have doubts about Sabathia.  Cafardo wonders if the front office would take on another sizeable pitching contract and add another overweight pitcher.
  • The Rays will be able to make their rotation even scarier by adding 22-year-old Matt Moore to it.  Tampa Bay also has righty Alex Cobb and lefty Alex Torres ready for the majors.  The Rays could parlay their pitching depth into offense by trading Cobb, Torres, Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis if need be.
  • The feeling is that Padres skipper Bud Black has a real chance of becoming the Angels next GM.  Black, who is good friends with Mike Scioscia, doesn’t have front office experience but has a pitching expertise that would make him valuable in that position.
  • Former Mets GM Omar Minaya thinks that Willie Randolph, Chip Hale, Tim Wallach, and Ryne Sandberg would all be good fits to manage in Boston.  Minaya is currently an analyst for the MLB Network and is mulling over a few offers to return to baseball as an adviser to a GM.  He expects to make a decision as the winter unfolds.
  • Red Sox third base coach Tim Bogar could be retained when a new manager is named.  There has also been speculation that Bogar is a candidate for bench coach under new White Sox manager Robin Ventura.  Cafardo gives the White Sox credit for being decisive and hiring Robin Ventura rather than wait for a big name like Tony La Russa.
  • Former Red Sox coach John McLaren is managing the Chinese national team and might be a candidate to become bench coach with the Mets.

Red Sox Notes: Epstein, Wallach, Lackey, Padres

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Here's the latest from Fenway Park…

  • "People around the game [are] getting [the] idea that" Theo Epstein will likely remain as Boston's GM, reports Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated (Twitter link).  Yesterday, Heyman reported that "a slight majority" of people around baseball believed Epstein would turn down a job offer from the Cubs.
  • Dodgers third base coach Tim Wallach is under consideration for the manager's job, reports Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe.  Wallach "is still at the stage of being considered for an interview," according to several sources.  Wallach's name was mentioned in connection with the open managerial jobs with the Dodgers, Marlins and Blue Jays last winter.
  • A Padres official tells Tom Krasovic of the Inside The Padres blog that it "is not farfetched at all" that San Diego would consider a trade for John Lackey this winter.  Krasovic thinks Lackey could benefit from pitching at Petco Park and reuniting with Bud Black, who was Lackey's pitching coach with the Angels.  Krasovic proposes a trade that would require Boston to pay most of Lackey's salary, take Orlando Hudson in return and also send "a young big leaguer or a good prospect, or two" back to the Padres.  It sounds lopsided in San Diego's favor, but given how low Lackey's stock has fallen, the Red Sox will have to meet similar trade criteria in any potential Lackey deal.

Rockies Rumors: Stewart, Wright, Headley, Alvarez

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The Rockies pick tenth in next year's draft, a pick that will be protected if they sign a Type A free agent who turned down arbitration this offseason.  The latest on the team, from Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post:

  • Kevin Kouzmanoff is unlikely to return to the Rockies next year.  MLBTR reported yesterday that the team is in the process of outrighting the third baseman.  Ian Stewart will get another shot at the third base job if he "makes baseball his first priority from the start of the winter until the end of it," GM Dan O'Dowd told Renck.  The Rockies will need to make a decision on Stewart by the December 12th non-tender deadline though.  Tendering him a contract probably means paying him around $2.2MM again.
  • Opposing executives expect O'Dowd to aggressively pursue Mets third baseman David Wright.  Otherwise Renck expects the Rockies to cast a wide net, including the Padres' Chase Headley and the Pirates' Pedro Alvarez but not free agent Aramis Ramirez.  I have a hard time imagining the Padres sending Headley to their division rival; the two teams haven't matched up for an offseason trade since the Rockies' inaugural season.
  • The Rockies are looking to trade Ty Wigginton even it means eating some of the $4.5MM owed to him.
  • Renck reiterates that the Rockies seek an innings eater this offseason.
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