The Padres’ 2011 Rotation
Clayton Richard, Mat Latos, Wade LeBlanc, Jon Garland and Kevin Correia have been baseball's most dependable rotation and, arguably, its best. So far in 2010, those five pitchers have combined to start all but two of the Padres' 117 games and the group is second in the majors with a 3.46 ERA (the Cardinals' 3.35 mark is best of all). Looking ahead to next year, here's a closer look at the team's 2011 rotation.
The youngsters – Latos, Richard and LeBlanc – will be back and they'll be cheap, since they are not even arbitration-eligible. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the Padres offer Latos an extension before the 2011 season, but he'll be around regardless as long as he's healthy. Latos, Richard and LeBlanc should comprise three fifths of the team's rotation in 2011.
We can't assume that the rest of the rotation will return, though. Correia is a free agent and Garland will also hit the open market unless he and the Padres exercise his $6.75MM mutual option. The Padres have an $8.5MM option for Chris Young's services, but there are probably more prudent ways of committing that kind of money.
The Padres could attempt to fill the rotation out with some of their minor league depth. Former Oriole Radhames Liz is striking out nearly a batter per inning at Triple A Portland, where he has a 4.87 ERA. Will Inman, a 23-year-old right-hander, has pitched well in 11 Triple A starts and Cesar Ramos and Cesar Carrillo also provide organizational depth at Portland. Jeremy Hefner, 24, is pitching well at AA. Before the season, Baseball America suggested that Hefner could become a back-of-the-rotation starter.
And then there are the top prospects. Simon Castro, a 22-year-old right-hander, has made a successful leap to AA this year, posting a 2.83 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 21 starts. Baseball America ranked Castro second among Padres prospects before the season, explaining that he "has the stuff and durability to profile at least as a No. 3 starter." Castro has pitched well this year, so he could be ready for the majors at some point in 2011.
Cory Luebke, another highly-touted prospect, has strikingly similar numbers to the ones Castro has posted. In 100 innings, Luebke, a lefty, has posted a 3.06 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. Before the season, Baseball America ranked Luebke sixth among Padres prospects and said his "stuff and size give him a ceiling as a No. 3 starter." Luebke's strong 2010 campaign suggests that, like Castro, he could start for the Padres at some point soon.
Castro and Luebke are highly-regarded prospects and both seem likely to succeed in the big leagues. But the Padres, who have plenty of payroll flexibility in 2011, will probably not count on that duo right away, so it would be a surprise if GM Jed Hoyer did not pursue free agent pitchers.
Garland, who pitched 7.0 more scoreless innings tonight, has had an excellent season for San Diego and the club could look to bring back some combination of Garland, Correia and Young. Whether the Padres pursue those pitchers or others, they seem likely to spend on free agent arms this winter. The organization has a number of promising minor league starters who will likely contribute in 2011, but the Padres just don't seem likely to rely on such an inexperienced group to start the season.
Thanks to MLB.com's Corey Brock and Cot's Baseball Contracts.
Draft Notes: Whitson, Indians, Harper
The smoke has cleared and all but three of the first 50 picks signed deals. Barret Loux (Diamondbacks) and Dylan Covey (Brewers) did not sign, but both pitchers had medical issues that influenced the dialogue they had with the clubs that selected them. Here are the details on the third player who did not sign, plus Baseball America's winners and losers:
- John Manuel of BA lists the Nationals, Pirates, Anthony Ranaudo and Bud Selig as winners. The losers? The Brewers, Padres and the process itself.
- Padres GM Jed Hoyer told XX Sports Radio in San Diego that the Padres had a verbal agreement with Karsten Whitson for $1.953MM on draft day. The club boosted its offer as high as $2.1MM, but Whitson and his representatives were holding out for more, so the sides didn't reach a deal. You can listen in on Hoyer's comments here.
- ESPN.com's Keith Law finds it "hard to see [Whitson] beating the Padres' offer … in the 2013 draft."
- In the same piece, Law explains that he believes Bryce Harper and the Nationals both did well with last night's deal.
- The Indians spent $9.3MM on the draft, Indians scouting director Brad Grant told MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince (Twitter link).
- The Rockies are allowing first-rounder Kyle Parker to play college football, but their $1.4MM bonus is protected if he gets injured, according to Tracy Ringolsby of FOX Sports (on Twitter).
Draft Pick Signings
Today's draft pick signing deadline passed at 11pm central time. This post contains notable signings outside of the first round, with the latest up top.
- The Padres signed sixth-rounder John Barbato for $1.4MM, according to ESPN.com's Keith Law (on Twitter).
- The Blue Jays signed fourth-rounder Sam Dyson for $600K, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America (on Twitter).
- The Tigers signed second-rounder Drew Smyly for $1.1MM, according to Kendall Rogers of Yahoo (on Twitter).
- The D'Backs signed 14th-rounder Ty Linton for $1.25MM, according to MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo.
- The A's signed second-rounder Yordy Cabrera for $1.25MM, according to ESPN.com's Keith Law (via Twitter). The team has since confirmed the deal, but not its value.
- The Pirates have signed second-rounder Stetson Allie, according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer (on Twitter). The 19-year-old, who plays third and pitches, had committed to the University of North Carolina. He gets a $2.25MM bonus, according to Hoynes (on Twitter).
- The D'Backs signed eighth-rounder Tyler Green for $750K, according to Aaron Fitt of Baseball America. The prep righty can hit 95 mph with his fastball.
- The Reds signed sixth-rounder Drew Cisco for $975K, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America.
- The Cardinals signed second-round right-hander Jordan Swagerty for $600-650K, according to Kendall Rogers of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter).
- The Giants signed second-rounder Jarrett Parker for $700K, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America. The 21-year-old outfielder set multiple single-season records at Virginia last year.
- The Mariners signed second-rounder Marcus Littlewood for $900K, according to ESPN.com's Keith Law (on Twitter). Here's Law's scouting report on the prep shortstop.
- The D'Backs agreed to sign sixth-round right-hander Blake Perry for $500K, according to Aaron Fitt of Baseball America.
- The Nationals agreed to sign 12th-round left-hander Robbie Ray for $799K, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson.
- The Red Sox will sign Garin Cecchini, according to Kendall Rogers of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter). The fourth-round pick was looking for about $1.35MM and Jim Callis of Baseball America reports (on Twitter) that he'll get $1.31MM.
- Eighth-rounder Alex Lavisky agreed to terms with the Indians on a $1MM bonus, according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer (on Twitter). The prep catcher is "a good athlete with arm strength," according to Baseball America.
- The Red Sox signed second-rounder Brandon Workman for $800K, according to Alex Speier of WEEI.com.
- The Red Sox agreed to sign third-rounder Sean Coyle, a 5'8" shortstop, for $1.3MM, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America. That's more than $1MM more than MLB recommends for the 110 slot.
- The Dodgers signed 11th-rounder Joc Pederson, a prep outfielder, for $600K according to Baseball America's Jim Callis. That quadruples MLB's recommended maximum. BA ranked Pederson #154 in their draft preview.
- The Rangers signed fifth-rounder Justin Grimm, a righty out of Georgia, for $825K plus incentives ($677K over slot), reports Baseball America's Aaron Fitt. BA ranked Grimm at #109 in their draft preiew.
- The Indians signed fourth-round pick Kyle Blair for $580K ($334K over slot), reports Baseball America's Jim Callis. Blair is a righty drafted out of the University of San Diego; BA ranked him 84th overall in their draft preview.
- The Royals signed second-round pick Brett Eibner and fifth-rounder Jason Adam, according to a press release. Baseball America's Jim Callis tweets that Eibner gets $1.25MM (almost $600K over slot), while Adam gets $800K ($629K over slot). Eibner is a center fielder and pitcher out of the University of Arkansas, and Adam is a righty drafted out of high school. Baseball America rated Eibner the 23rd-best player in the draft, calling him the "best two-way prospect" in the class. The Royals instead plan to use him as a center fielder.
Padres Do Not Sign Karsten Whitson
The Padres did not sign ninth-overall pick Karsten Whitson according to Baseball America (Twitter link). Whitson, 19 next week, is a right-handed pitcher out of Chipley H.S. in Florida. The Padres will get the 11th overall pick in the 2011 draft because the Diamondbacks did not sign Barret Loux.
The Padres offered Whitson $2MM-plus, only to see him reject it, according to Dan Hayes of the North County Times (on Twitter).
Click here for the complete list of 2010 first-rounders to sign.
Draft Signings: Hahn, Shipers, Cates, Cone
The deadline for signing draft picks is fast approaching, as teams have until tomorrow night at 11 CST to finalize deals with this year's draftees. Here are a few notable above-slot agreements, with any new updates added to the top of the list throughout the day:
- Sixth-round pick Jesse Hahn has signed with the Rays for $525K, reports Jim Callis of Baseball America. Hahn was projected as a first-rounder at one point, but Tommy John surgery hurt his value. Still, he easily exceeded MLB's recommended $150K maximum for players drafted after the fifth round.
- The Indians signed 23rd-round left-hander Tony Dischler for $255K, tweets Callis.
- The Mariners agreed to terms with 16th-round pick Jordan Shipers for a deal worth $800K, according to Callis. That bonus is the highest so far for any player draft later than the fourth round.
- Third-rounder Zach Cates reached an agreement with the Padres for a $765K bonus, the highest to date for a third-round selection. Callis reports that the right-hander more than doubled MLB's recommended bonus of approximately $380K for the draft slot.
- Derek Cone, the Dodgers' 31st-round pick, signed with the club for $150K, according to Callis (via Twitter).
- For a summary of which first-rounders and sandwich picks have signed so far, click here.
Draft Notes: Solis, Klein, Jenkins, Gumbs
The deadline for signing draft picks is just days away. Teams have until August 16th (next Monday) at 11 CST to sign their picks, and the agreements are starting to trickle in. Here are the details:
- Talks between the Nationals and second-round pick Sammy Solis are "amicable," and MLB.com's Bill Ladson hears from a source that a deal is close to being worked out.
- Baltimore has agreed to terms with third-rounder Dan Klein, tweets Baseball America's Jim Callis. Klein's bonus is worth just under $500K, or as Callis describes it, "second-round money."
- The Cardinals officially announced their contract with Tyrell Jenkins, writes Matthew Leach of MLB.com. It was reported earlier this week that Jenkins and the Cards had agreed to terms that included an above-slot bonus price for the 50th overall pick.
- The Yankees signed second-rounder Angelo Gumbs for $750K, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America. The outfielder gets the largest bonus for any player drafted after the supplemental first round this year.
- Here's another above-slot deal for an outfielder: the Padres signed eighth-rounder Jose Dore for $450K, according to Callis.
- Not surprisingly, the Red Sox haven't had substantial talks with Scott Boras about signing Anthony Ranaudo, according to Alex Speier of WEEI.com. Ranaudo pitched well in the Cape Cod League this summer and maintains that he's ready to return to LSU.
- MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo gives the latest updates on unsigned first round picks. Mayo reports indications that the D'Backs have continued talking to Barret Loux, who failed his physical.
- Here's our list of top picks to sign.
Jed Hoyer’s First Year
Jed Hoyer has been the general manager of the Padres since October 26th, and much of his first year is in the books. We looked at Alex Anthopoulos yesterday; now it's Hoyer's turn.
- Signed Chris Denorfia to a minor league deal - 12-18-09. This early move was a winner, as Denorfia has a .266/.324/.456 line in 189 plate appearances for the Padres.
- Acquired Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham from Athletics for Kevin Kouzmanoff and Eric Sogard, 1-16-10. Cunningham has hit well in 85 big league plate appearances, though he didn't do anything with 246 PAs in Triple A. Hairston has disappointed in his return campaign. Neither Kouzmanoff nor his replacement Chase Headley have hit much. This trade might ultimately be settled by comparing the careers of Sogard and Cunningham, as the veterans could be non-tendered this winter.
- Signed Jerry Hairston Jr. to a one-year, $2.125MM deal – 1-18-10. Hairston has performed as expected – versatile glove, weak bat. He deserves credit for playing an apparently passable shortstop this year.
- Signed Jon Garland to a one-year, $5.3MM deal – 1-26-10. The Garland signing was praised as a bargain at the time, and he's provided 139.3 innings of 3.55 ball. His peripheral numbers predict something closer to 4.50 from here on out, but the innings are good value at that price.
- Signed Matt Stairs to a minor league deal worth $700K – 1-26-10. A knee injury is partially to blame, but Stairs hasn't hit at all this year.
- Signed Yorvit Torrealba to a one-year, $1.25MM deal – 2-9-10. Hard to go wrong with this below-market contract, and Torrealba has pleased the Padres with a .317/.381/.400 line.
- Acquired Miguel Tejada and $1.1MM from Orioles for Wynn Pelzer, 7-29-10. It remains to be seen if a move back to the NL will rejuvenate Tejada's bat, but they needed an infielder and there wasn't much out there.
- Acquired Ryan Ludwick from Cardinals and cash from Indians, giving up Corey Kluber and Nick Greenwood, 7-31-10. Nice move by Hoyer, picking up a power hitter many people didn't realize was available. Ludwick is under team control for 2011, too.
- The key to Hoyer's first draft will be signing prep righty Karsten Whitson, opines ESPN's Keith Law. Whitson was drafted out of high school, ninth overall.
- The Padres' surprising 64-46 record and first place standing indicates Hoyer has done something right or at least not made any moves to hurt the club. He inherited the majority of the team's stellar pitching staff, so Kevin Towers deserves a fist bump. The Garland and Torrealba signings were solid, though both players might have given the San Diego discount. Hoyer's trades have yet to show a return.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Mets, Park, Garza, Wieters
On this date four years ago, the Mets locked up franchise cornerstone David Wright to a six-year deal worth $55MM guaranteed. A club option for 2013 could put another $15MM in his pocket, and he's already earned an extra $300K in award based incentives. Wright, just 23 at the time and now a .307/.387/.517 career hitter, would have become a free agent after this season had he not opted for the long-term security. Can't say I blame him.
Here's a look at what's being written in the baseball corner of the blogging universe…
- Mets Paradise hosts a post-trade deadline roundtable discussion with fellow Mets bloggers.
- 1 Blue Jays Way interviews Toronto prospect Danny Farquhar.
- NPB Tracker recaps the deals made on the July 31st trade deadline in Japan.
- River Ave. Blues wonders what would have happened if Alex Rodriguez hadn't opted out of his contract after the 2007 season.
- Pittsburgh Lumber Co. defends the Pirates' Chan Ho Park pick-up.
- Bright House Sports Network thinks Matt Garza's time with the Rays may soon come to an end.
- Camden Crazies looks at what's wrong with Matt Wieters.
- SD Sports Net deciphers the Padres' deadline deals.
- More Hardball breaks down the young players the Pirates have coming up through the system.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Stark On Padres, Manny, Wandy, Harang
The Rangers appear to be headed toward stability, but they added $4.6MM in payroll before the trade deadline and, as ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reports, that left some rival executives unhappy. Here are the rest of Stark's rumors:
- The Padres had asked the Cardinals about Ryan Ludwick more than once leading up to the trade deadline.
- GM Jed Hoyer had also inquired on Jake Westbrook and even Roy Oswalt.
- When the White Sox called the Dodgers to ask about Manny Ramirez, the Dodgers ended the conversation quickly. That didn't stop the Rays and two other American League teams from calling the Dodgers, however. We should note that GM Ned Colletti told Jim Bowden of Sirius XM Radio that he only fielded one call about Manny (Twitter link).
- Not one team pursued Jose Guillen seriously before the deadline. The Royals designated the outfielder for assignment today, so we'll see in the next ten days if any teams have mild interest.
- Joe Beimel drew lots of interest last weekend, but the Rockies never seriously shopped him.
- A number of teams tried to acquire Wandy Rodriguez, including the Twins, Reds, Mets, Dodgers and Blue Jays.
- The Reds tried to determine interest in Aaron Harang, so they could attempt to move him in August if he returns from the DL and proves that the back spasms that sidelined him are no longer an issue.
Odds & Ends: Padres, Sheets, Beltran, Rangers
More links for Wednesday, after another impressive outing from Ubaldo Jimenez…
- Padres exec Paul DePodesta explains that he didn't like trading Wynn Pelzer and Corey Kluber away, but says he hopes that "every year we're forced to pay such a price to further a pennant run."
- Ben Sheets, who is about to have flexor tendon surgery, told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he isn't sure whether he'll ever pitch again.
- Newsday's David Lennon wonders if the Mets could trade Carlos Beltran before next season (Twitter link).
- Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban appears to have made the highest initial bid in the auction to buy the Texas Rangers, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.