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Notable Draft Signings: 7/18/23

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The first overall pick signed for a record bonus with the Pirates this afternoon. Meanwhile, Arizona signed their first-round selection for a $4.4MM figure. The other $2MM+ signees from Tuesday (scouting reports from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN and The Athletic):

  • The Phillies announced a deal with 27th overall pick Aidan Miller. The club didn’t specify the signing figure, but Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports it at $3.1MM (Twitter link). That’s a little north of the $2.97MM slot value. A high school infielder out of Florida, Miller appeared on the top 25 players on each of the referenced pre-draft rankings. The 6’2″ third baseman is credited with some of the highest offensive upside in the high school class, though he had a relatively down draft year after injuring the hamate bone in his hand. He’s already 19 — older than the typical high schooler — but has significant power potential and a chance to stick at the hot corner. Miller bypasses a commitment to Arkansas to enter the pro ranks.
  • The Padres agreed to terms with 25th selection Dillon Head, Callis reports (on Twitter). The Illinois high schooler gets a $2.8MM bonus, a little below the pick’s $3.17MM slot value. Head ranked 27th on MLB Pipeline’s pre-draft list but as low as 50th on Keith Law’s ranking at The Athletic. The lefty-hitting outfielder is an elite runner and a potential quality defensive center fielder. Evaluators are split on how much offensive upside he possesses in a 5’11” or 6’0″ frame. Head was a Clemson commit.
  • The Royals went well overslot to sign second-round draftee Blake Wolters, according to Callis (Twitter link). A high school right-hander from Illinois, he lands a $2.8MM bonus that beats the $1.95MM value of the 44th pick. The 6’4″ hurler had a velocity bump into the mid-90s during his draft year. He’s credited with a quality slider and intriguing athleticism but faces questions about his third pitch. It’s a fairly common refrain for an upside flier on a high school pitcher. Kansas City liked Wolters enough to sign him away from the University of Arizona.

Padres Designate Rougned Odor For Assignment, Option Austin Nola

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The Padres announced a broad-reaching slate of roster moves Tuesday, most notably designating infielder/outfielder Rougned Odor for assignment and optioning catcher Austin Nola to Triple-A El Paso. San Diego also optioned utilityman Brandon Dixon to El Paso.

That trio of moves creates space for the team to reinstate catcher Luis Campusano from the 60-day injured list, select the contract of outfielder Taylor Kohlwey and recall infielder Alfonso Rivas from Triple-A. The Padres also announced that righty Reiss Knehr has been transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL. He’s been on the shelf with elbow discomfort since late June and will now be sidelined until at least late August.

It’s a notable shakeup for a struggling Padres club that has gotten negligible production from the bench and from its catching position this season. Odor, who’ll be traded or released within a week’s time (he can reject an outright assignment), has batted just .210/.306/.370 in 157 trips to the plate this season. Nola (.146/.260/.192 in 154 plate appearances) and Dixon (.204/.244/.329 in 86 plate appearances) have been even less productive. They’ll both remain in the organization in Triple-A, at least for the time being.

The Padres were Odor’s fourth team in as many years. He hasn’t had an above-average season at the plate since 2016 but has continually gotten looks around the league thanks to his glove and considerable left-handed pop. He’s been with the Rangers, Yankees and Orioles in the past three seasons, respectively, and cracked the Padres’ Opening Day roster in 2023 despite a combined .199/.269/.374 showing from 2020-22. In doing so, he continued the long line of former Rangers who’ve made cameos with the Padres under president of baseball operations AJ Preller — a longtime assistant GM in Texas (e.g. Ian Kinsler, Keone Kela, Mitch Moreland, Nelson Cruz, Nomar Mazara, Jurickson Profar, Yu Darvish, Nick Martinez, Carl Edwards Jr.).

Nola, 33, has been San Diego’s primary catcher in recent seasons after coming over from the Mariners in what’s become a lopsided deal for Seattle. San Diego acquired Nola, Austin Adams and Dan Altavilla in exchange for infielder Ty France, reliever Andres Munoz, outfielder Taylor Trammell and catcher Luis Torrens. France has since settled in as the Mariners’ primary first baseman and made the All-Star team in 2022. Munoz has stepped up as Seattle’s closer.

While Nola had been enjoying a breakout with the Mariners in 2019-20 and was solid in his first season-plus with San Diego, his bat has since cratered. Dating back to Opening Day 2022, he’s a .222/.304/.291 hitter (75 wRC+) in exactly 162 games and 551 plate appearances. His once-strong framing ratings have also deteriorated, and Nola has thwarted just 16.8% of stolen base attempts over the past two seasons.

With Nola now in El Paso, the Padres will rely on Campusano and Gary Sanchez behind the plate. Sanchez started hot after signing in San Diego, clubbing five dingers in his first 50 plate appearances. However, he’s since gone ice cold at the dish, batting just .150/.253/.250 in his past 91 turns at the plate.

That could open the door for Campusano to at last get a legitimate look behind the plate. The longtime top prospect has appeared in each MLB season since 2020 but has only 114 career plate appearances to his name. He’s mustered only a .198/.237/.302 output in that time, but Campusano is a career .297/.366/.513 hitter in 702 Triple-A plate appearances and has outstanding batted-ball metrics in his limited MLB work. Despite the pedestrian bottom-line results, Campusano has an average exit velocity of 90.6 mph and a massive 48.7% hard-hit rate, per Statcast. Opponents have gone 16-for-16 against him in stolen bases at the MLB level, but Campusano has a 25% caught-stealing rate in the minors.

Also joining the Padres’ roster will be Kohlwey, who’ll be in line for his MLB debut just two days prior to his 29th birthday. A 21st-round pick out of the University of Wisconsin La Crosse back in 2016, Kohlwey has experience at all three outfield spots and is batting .261/.377/.437 with nine homers, 16 doubles, a pair of triples, 10 steals and nearly as many walks (50) as strikeouts (51) in 328 trips to the batter’s box.

Rivas, 26, signed with the Padres over the winter after spending the past two seasons with the Cubs. He’s gone 2-for-7 with a double in his limited sample with the Friars so far this year and is a career .248/.332/.325 hitter in 344 MLB plate appearances. Rivas boasts a colossal .332/.462/.582 slash in Triple-A this season and carries a lifetime .313/.424/.492 line in 150 games at that level.

NL West Notes: Grichuk, Yankees, Campusano, Morejon, Gonzalez, Rodgers, Kinley

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As the Yankees look for outfield help, Randal Grichuk is a “name that has come up” in the team’s explorations, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).  Now in his second season with the Rockies, Grichuk missed most of April recovering from offseason sports hernia surgery, but has since hit .300/.364/.473 (112 wRC+) over 225 plate appearances.  Grichuk is a free agent after the season and would be a pure rental for New York, and he is owed roughly $3.89MM for the remainder of the 2023 campaign.  The exact of who owes Grichuk that money isn’t exactly known, as the Blue Jays were paying $4.333MM of the total $9.333MM owed to Grichuk this year, so the Rockies’ 2023 financial obligation (and thus the obligation for any trade suitor) may technically be done, depending on how Grichuk’s salary was divvied up.

Regardless, Grichuk would still count as a relatively inexpensive acquisition for the Yankees.  Grichuk can play at least passable defense at all three outfield positions, making him a usefully flexible option for New York both before and after Aaron Judge returns from the injured list.  While his splits indicate a lot more success at Coors Field than at away ballparks this season, Grichuk does at least have a solid track record of success at Yankee Stadium, with a .279/.333/.532 slash line and seven home runs over 120 career PA in the Bronx.  The struggling Rockies are reportedly open to moving pending free agents like Grichuk, though there’s a slight question mark about his health, as Grichuk has missed Colorado’s last couple of games due to groin tightness.

Here’s more from around the NL West…

  • Padres catcher Luis Campusano has missed most of the 2023 campaign after undergoing thumb surgery in early May, leaving the club to rely on the struggling Austin Nola and in-season signing Gary Sanchez behind the plate.  Fortunately, Campusano appears to be nearing a return as Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune write that the backstop is in “the final stages” of his Triple-A rehab assignment, and is expected to rejoin the club during their current road trip (which runs through July 23).  According to Acee, Campusano’s return will result in a timeshare with Sanchez, though the playing time specifics are expected to be “merit-based.”  Sanchez has hit .197/.279/.426 (94 wRC+) in 136 plate appearances with the Padres while Campusano posted a .238/.227/.429 (70 wRC+) slash line prior to his trip to the IL, albeit in just 22 trips to the plate.
  • Sticking with the Padres, the club announced today that left-hander Adrian Morejon was placed on the 15-day injured list due to right knee inflammation.  It’s been a difficult road for Morejon, who has pitched just 47 2/3 innings since the start of the 2021 campaign due to a Tommy John surgery, and then an elbow sprain that sent him to the 60-day IL at the start of this season.  Morejon will be replaced on the active roster by right-hander Matt Waldron, who sports a 3.86 ERA in 4 2/3 innings of work with the Padres this season.
  • Luis Gonzalez underwent back surgery in March, but Giants manager Gabe Kapler told reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle) today that the outfielder is set to begin a rehab assignment.  It will take a while for Gonzalez to ramp up after the long layoff, but his recovery should line up with the August timeline recently mentioned by Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi.  Gonzalez was a solid contributor to the 2022 club, hitting .254/.323/.360 over 350 PA in his rookie season.
  • Bookending the post with some more Rockies news, Brendan Rodgers and Tyler Kinley will start rehab assignments with the Rockies’ high-A affiliate on Monday, according to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (Twitter link).  Neither player has seen any action this season, as Rodgers underwent shoulder surgery during Spring Training and Kinley is recovering from an elbow surgery a little over a year ago.

NL West Notes: Padres, Tatis, Wood, Dodgers

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While the Padres were swept in today’s doubleheader against the Phillies, dropping their season record to 44-49 that puts them ten games back in the NL West, the club is nonetheless expected to pursue additions prior to August 1’s trade deadline. Club chairman Peter Seidler indicated as much earlier in the month, and now Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds additional details about the team’s expected deadline approach. While San Diego will look to make additions, Heyman suggests it will be a far more modest than the massive outlay last year that brought back Juan Soto, Josh Hader, and Josh Bell. The club reportedly hopes to add a bat to the lineup, along with possibly a relief arm to the bullpen.

With clear starters entrenched all across the infield and outfield, the clearest hole in the club’s lineup appears to be at designated hitter. The club recently released Nelson Cruz, and fellow offseason signing Matt Carpenter has struggled similarly with a 76 wRC+ in 191 plate appearances this season. Rougned Odor and Brandon Dixon have also mixed in recently, though both are also hitting well below league average. Given this need at DH, the Padres should have plenty of options on the rental market. Speculatively speaking, Tommy Pham woulld certainly improve the club’s production at the DH spot, while a more versatile player like Cody Bellinger could do the same while also mixing in at all three outfield spots and at first base.

More from around the NL West…

  • Sticking with the Padres, Fernando Tatis Jr. exited play against the Phillies today with an apparent injury. As noted by Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune, manager Bob Melvin told reporters that Tatis suffered a twisted ankle on the warning track and left the game after his ankle began to swell. Tatis is currently considered day-to-day, though given Tatis’s injury history and importance to the Padres, it would hardly be surprising if the club decided to sit him for a game or two to ensure the issue doesn’t become more significant.
  • Giants left-hander Alex Wood is slated to take the ball for a start tomorrow against the Pirates, as noted by Susan Sussler of the San Francisco Chronicle. Across 50 innings of work this season, Wood sports a 4.68 ERA and 4.74 FIP. He was moved to the bullpen at the end of June and sports a 3.09 ERA in 11 2/3 innings of work since then, including two five-inning, scoreless appearances. Now, Wood will get another opportunity as a member of the club’s starting rotation where he will be joined by Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, and Ross Stripling.
  • The Dodgers have struggled to keep their starting pitchers healthy this season as each of Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Noah Syndergaard, Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, and Gavin Stone have spent time on the injured list throughout the season. Fortunately for LA, the club appears poised to get reinforcements from the injured list in the near future, with both Syndergaard and Pepiot beginning rehab assignments with Triple-A Oklahoma City per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Pepiot made his first appearance since Spring Training with Oklahoma City yesterday, allowing one run over two innings while racking up two strikeouts. Syndergaard, meanwhile, allowed two runs on four hits over five innings of work in a start this evening, striking out six without issuing a walk. Both pitchers, if healthy and effective, figure to impact a Dodgers club that has surged to recapture the lead in the NL West race in recent days.

Padres Acquire Ben Gamel From Rays

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The Padres are acquiring minor league outfielder Ben Gamel from the Rays, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). Tampa Bay receives cash in return, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (on Twitter).

According to the transaction log at MLB.com, the veteran outfielder was assigned to Triple-A El Paso. Gamel will not immediately occupy a spot on the 40-man roster, as he’d signed a minor league pact with Tampa Bay over the offseason.

The 31-year-old Gamel has had a strong season in Triple-A Durham with the Rays, hitting .276/.402/.463 (120 wRC+) with eight homers, 12 doubles, a triple, four steals, a huge 16.8% walk rate and a 22.8% strikeout rate in 250 plate appearances. He’ll give the Friars an experienced veteran bat who could be up in the Majors and help in a corner outfield spot sooner than later.

Gamel has seen Major League time in each of the past seven seasons, dating back to his 2016 debut with the Yankees. He’s a lifetime .253/.333/.385 hitter (97 wRC+) in just over 2200 plate appearances, and while he’s typically been light on power — career-high 11 homers, .132 career ISO — he’s drawn walks at a strong clip for the majority of his big league tenure (10.2%).

Looking at his career as a whole, Gamel’s track record against right-handed pitching is roughly average. That’s skewed somewhat by some shaky performances earlier in his career, however. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, Gamel carries a solid .255/.351/.408 slash against right-handed pitchers — about 12% better than league-average after weighting for his home park and league run-scoring environment, by measure of wRC+. During that time, he’s walked at a stout 13.9% clip in platoon matchups.

The Padres have a righty-heavy lineup and have gotten negligible production out of a thin bench group this season. Their reserve options off the bench currently include catcher Austin Nola and infielder/outfielder options Rougned Odor, Brandon Dixon and Matthew Batten. Odor is the only lefty of the bunch, and his .212/.307/.371 batting line (91 wRC+) in 150 plate appearances hasn’t been much to write home about. Gamel could be a veteran option to step into a bench spot, and if the club eventually decides to reduce struggling Matt Carpenter’s role or move on from him entirely — the 37-year-old is hitting .173/.300/.314 — then Gamel could have a clearer path to some DH or corner outfield at-bats.

MLB To Open 2024 Season With Dodgers-Padres Series In South Korea

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Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association announced the “World Tour” schedule for the 2024 season. The ’24 campaign will kick off with a two-game series between the Padres and Dodgers in Seoul on March 20-21.

Those will be the first MLB regular season contests ever played in South Korea. The league had been slated to play four exhibition games in the nation — two in Seoul, two in Busan — over the 2022-23 offseason. That event was canceled, which MLB attributed to a contractual issue with a local promoter.

While the season-opening Korean set is the most notable development, the World Tour will also again take clubs to Mexico and the United Kingdom. The Rockies and Astros are slated for a two-game set in Mexico City on April 27-28. The Padres and Giants played there this April. MLB had previously announced a two-game set between the Mets and Phillies in London on June 8-9. The Cubs and Cardinals met in England last month.

Along with the three regular season series, MLB is sending the Rays and Red Sox to Santo Domingo for a pair of Spring Training games. The Dominican Republic exhibition contests will take place on March 9-10.

MLB and the MLBPA formed the World Tour program during the most recent round of collective bargaining. The league will schedule up to 24 regular season games and 16 Spring Training contests scattered throughout Latin America, Asia and Europe over the course of the CBA.

Padres Release Nelson Cruz

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The Padres have released designated hitter Nelson Cruz, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He was designated for assignment a week ago and the club was apparently unable to line up a trade in the meantime. He would have been able to elect free agency if he cleared waivers, so the Friars had little choice but to send him back to the open market.

Cruz, 43, had a lengthy run as one of the best sluggers in the game but has been far less effective over the past two years. From 2009 through 2020, he hit 395 home runs and batted .280/.350/.538 overall for a wRC+ of 137, indicating he was 37% better than the league average hitter.

He initially carried that production into 2021 as well, as he carried a batting line of .294/.370/.537 and a wRC+ of 142 through 85 games with the Twins. At that point, he was flipped to the Rays but couldn’t maintain that performance, hitting just .226/.283/.442 for a wRC+ of 95 with Tampa. He signed with the Nationals last year but couldn’t get back on track, slashing .234/.313/.337 for a wRC+ of 85. Cruz hoped that eye surgery at the end of last year would help him get back in form in 2023 but he’s just just .245/.283/.399 with the Padres, translating to a wRC+ of 85 that matches last year’s figure.

Cruz is effectively just a designated hitter at this point in his career. The last time he played the outfield was back in 2018, and even that was just four games. He played one game at first base with the Rays in 2021, playing the field for seven innings, and logged just a single inning at first for the Friars this year. With those defensive limitations, he needs to hit to justify his roster spot and hasn’t been able to do so for a couple of years now.

The Padres and Cruz agreed to a $1MM salary in the offseason, with just under half of that still to be paid out. It seems no club was willing to take that on, so the Padres will remain on the hook for it by releasing him. That will allow any of the 29 other clubs to bring him aboard while paying him just the prorated league minimum, with that amount subtracted from what the Friars pay. As mentioned, he has been struggling since the middle of 2021, but perhaps some club is willing to take a shot on his previous track record, especially since the financial risk would be essentially nonexistent.

Big Hype Prospects: Salas, Merrill, Yorke, Hence, Mayo

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We missed a week while I was on the injured list (back spasms sustained while diving back to first base). There’s much for us to cover. Let’s start with some high-profile Padres. While the draft is tempting, let’s look in on those guys as they sign.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Ethan Salas, 17, C, SDP (A)
139 PA, 6 HR, 5 SB, .259/.381/.500

When we adjourned two weeks ago, Salas was batting .208/.340/.286 in 94 plate appearances. An 82 wRC+ isn’t anything to sniff at when we’re talking about a guy who’s 17-and-one-month old playing in full-season ball. Over the last two weeks, Salas hit .371/.467/.971. Including a HBP, he has as many free passes as strikeouts during the span. Of his 13 hits, he bopped five homers, four doubles, and a triple. That adds up to a 240 wRC+ for the hot streak and a 133 wRC+ on the season. If he keeps this up for long, he’ll find himself playing against High-A competition before the season ends. He’s “on pace” to debut as a teenager – a feat he can accomplish as long as he reaches the Majors before June 1, 2026.

Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (A+)
300 PA, 10 HR, 10 SB, .280/.318/.444

Salas’ future teammate had to grind through a rough April before turning a corner. The Midwest League is a difficult hitting environment. His first month of play consisted of a .188/.247/.338 performance. In the three months since then, he’s hit .317/.348/.487 while making steady improvements. Lately, he’s found a power stroke. Since June 14, he’s hit six of his 10 home runs. Merrill isn’t expected to be much of a power hitter. His carrying trait is an advanced feel for contact. He rarely meets a pitch with which he can’t connect. His discipline lags a bit, though it’s not as if he’s Javy Baez. An unsubstantiated theory of mine is that his early-season slump was the result of contacting too many pitches outside of the zone. The theory fits what data I have available, though I haven’t discussed it with anybody who would actually know.

Nick Yorke, 2B, 21, BOS (AA)
316 PA, 9 HR, 6 SB, .275/.361/.453

Folks weren’t sure what to make of Yorke’s forgettable 2022 campaign. The industry had a little chuckle when the Red Sox “reached” for Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft. After a superb 2021 season, everyone adjusted expectations. Then 2022 happened. Some evaluators stuck with their updated outlook and blamed injuries. Others pointed to his subpar defense and wrote him off.

Yorke has rebounded this season – perhaps not enough to make up for his defensive shortcomings. His current 122 wRC+ depends upon a .353 BABIP. He also has 13.0 percent swinging strike and 25.0 percent strikeout rates. Historically, prospects with similar statistical performances have been prone to stalling out in the Quad-A bucket. For now, we should view Yorke’s rebound as a positive development. Perhaps more distance from his injury-riddled 2022 will lead to improvements in his quality or rate of contact.

Tink Hence, 20, SP, STL (AA)
(A+) 41.2 IP, 9.94 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 2.81 ERA

Hence received a promotion to Double-A at the beginning of July. He also picked up a hold in the Futures Game. The pitching-needy Cardinals surely hope Hence can remain in the rotation. Alas, though he doesn’t walk many hitters, he’s not known for sharp command. His breaking ball is a weapon. It’s expected he should join the many pitchers who have mastered manipulating breaking ball spin for different effects. He doesn’t have a consistent changeup. Taken with the errant fastball command and history of brief outings, the relief risk is palpable. That said, Hence has yet to meet a challenge he hasn’t mastered. His Double-A debut was the first appearance of his career in which he faced more than 20 batters (22).

Coby Mayo, 21, 3B, BAL (AA)
347 PA, 17 HR, 4 SB, .307/.424/.603

With a 176 wRC+ on the season, Mayo is one of the top qualified hitters in the minors. He’ll play his next game in Triple-A, ending a nearly 500-plate appearance stint in Double-A. Mayo has traits grounded in the 2019 juiced ball era. He’s a pull-oriented slugger who generates plenty of loft. As a right-handed hitter, he’s not an ideal fit for Camden Yards. However, his power is such that he could overcome the home field limitations. It will be interesting to see if Mayo can continue to run elevated BABIPs into the Majors as this is a hitting profile typically associated with low BABIPs. Hypothetically, if a franchise-altering talent is made available at the trade deadline, Mayo would go a long way toward securing a deal. They’ll eventually have to trade somebody they like.

Three More

Johan Rojas, PHI (22): The Phillies are angling to get Kyle Schwarber into the DH slot. The plan would involve Cristian Pache in center and Brandon Marsh in left. If Pache doesn’t work out, Rojas has a similar reputation as a superlative defender who might hit enough to create a lot of value. In 354 Double-A plate appearances, Rojas is batting .306/.361/.484 with nine homers and 30 steals. He’s on the 40-man roster.

River Ryan, LAD (24): The latest pitcher to pop in the Dodgers system, Ryan features a promising four-pitch repertoire. In the month of June, he tossed two five-inning no-hitters. His command hasn’t been particularly sharp. Even across those two no-nos, Ryan issued four walks and hit three batters. It’s thought he’ll eventually develop better command. If not, he has a relief floor.

Ignacio Alvarez, ATL (20): A ripped shortstop who recently turned 20, Alvarez evokes Yandy Diaz right down to the comical biceps, low-angle contact, discipline, and rare whiffs. The comparison is hard to avoid. He might just be the next Brave to skip the line to the Majors. He generally keeps the ball on the ground with an all-fields approach. He’s expected to eventually move to third base, though he remains passable at shortstop for now.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

MLBTR Poll: How Should San Diego Approach The Trade Deadline?

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When Padres team chairman Peter Seidler recently discussed his vision for the club ahead of the coming trade deadline, he made clear he believed in the current iteration of the club and seemed to have no desire to sell at the trade deadline. That confidence comes in spite of an ugly first half of the 2023 season. In 88 games so far this season, the Padres have gone just 41-47, leaving them ten games back looking up at three teams in the NL West. The club’s Wild Card outlook isn’t much better, as San Diego is 8.5 games back with five teams standing between them and the final Wild Card spot

Of course, club ownership rarely directly makes baseball operations decisions. Given that, the decision on whether to buy or sell at the trade deadline in three weeks will likely be made by Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. A notoriously aggressive GM, Preller has built a star-studded roster with a massive payroll in recent years. Since the end of the 2020 campaign, when San Diego first made the playoffs under Preller, the club has added Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Josh Hader, and Juan Soto in blockbuster trades while signing Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year deal and signing each of Darvish, Musgrove, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. to big money extensions.

To reverse course completely would be near impossible. Musgrove and right-hander Robert Suarez are both signed through the 2027 campaign, while Darvish is signed through 2028. Infielder Jake Cronenworth is signed through the 2030 season, Machado and Bogaerts are both signed through 2033, while Tatis is signed through the end of the 2034 campaign. Between those seven players, the Padres are on the hook for roughly $107.5MM in terms of actual dollars and just over $137MM for luxury tax purposes, per RosterResource. With so many big money contracts on the books not just for next season, but for the better part of the decade or longer, trading long-term assets seems both unwise and difficult.

Given the club’s position, it’s possible that the front office will decide to double down and hope the team’s performance will improve in the second half. Suarez has yet to pitch this season and could help stabilize the bullpen upon his return, while each of Darvish, Machado, and Bogaerts are multi-time All Stars with lengthy track records of success; it’s surely not hard for Preller’s front office to talk themselves into that group improving upon their current 2023 performance going forward. With plenty of talent on the roster and glaring holes behind the plate, at DH, and on the bench, San Diego could retain their key players and deal for moderate upgrades to the weakest areas on the roster in hopes of things improving during the season’s final two months.

On the other hand, the club could look to retool for the future. Snell and Hader would immediately be among the most coveted rental arms on the market if the Padres listened on the pair, while Seth Lugo would surely interest a variety of contenders given his ability to swing in and out of the rotation. Lightly selling would allow the Padres to recoup value on their pending free agents and bolster a farm system that’s been raided by years of aggressive buy-side deals. What’s more, it would allow San Diego to take advantage of a trade market with few clearly established sellers.

Of course, the club could opt to take a middle ground option as well, dealing some of their pending free agents while also adding big league pieces with multiple years of control in hopes of giving themselves a chance to bounce back during the second half while attempting to maximize the club’s odds of winning in 2024, Soto’s last year of team control. Such an approach comes with its own unique risks, however. Dealing away key players can have impacts in the clubhouse, as the Brewers saw when dealing Hader to San Diego last year and Seattle saw after trading closer Kendall Graveman in 2021.

With just three weeks left until the trade deadline, the Padres will be forced to make a decision in the near future. How should San Diego approach this trade deadline? Do they need to stay the course and give themselves the best chance to win while Soto is under team control? Should they try to rebuild their farm system and look toward 2024 and beyond? Or perhaps they should try to do a bit of both?

(poll link for app users)

Padres Select Alek Jacob

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The Padres announced they’ve selected reliever Alek Jacob onto the big league roster. San Diego optioned José Castillo to Triple-A in a corresponding move. They already had an opening on the 40-man roster after designating Nelson Cruz for assignment a few days ago.

San Diego selected Jacob in the 16th round of the 2021 draft. A $75K senior sign out of Gonzaga, Jacob moved quickly up the ladder thanks to strong minor league performances. He traversed three levels last season. He struggled at year’s end in Triple-A but was dominant in High-A and Double-A.

Over the winter, Baseball America named the 6’3″ righty the #23 prospect in a relatively shallow San Diego farm system. The outlet praised a plus changeup and excellent control but noted well below-average fastball velocity that sits in the mid-upper 80s.

Despite lacking overpowering stuff, Jacob has thrived with Double-A San Antonio this year. Over 27 1/3 innings, he carries a 1.32 ERA. He’s striking out just under 30% of opponents and has induced grounders at a huge 56.1% clip. Already 25, Jacob is older than the standard Double-A prospect. Still, there’s little arguing with that kind of production, and he’s earned his first MLB look as a long relief option for skipper Bob Melvin.

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