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14 Veterans With Upcoming Opportunity To Opt Out Of Minor League Deals

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As part of last year’s collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the Players Association agreed to a few automatic opt-out dates for some veteran players on minor league contracts. Article XX(B) free agents — players with over six years of MLB service who finished the preceding season on a big league roster — who sign minor league contracts more than ten days before Opening Day now receive three uniform chances to retest free agency if they’re not added to the majors.

The first comes five days before the start of the season. For players who pass on that initial opt-out, they have additional windows to explore the open market on both May 1 and June 1 if they’ve yet to secure a spot on the 40-man roster. As that second opt-out date nears, it’s worth checking in on a few players with opt-outs under the CBA. We’ll also look at a few players who don’t meet those criteria but reportedly negotiated forthcoming opt-out dates into their own non-roster deals.

Anderson was an Article XX(B) player who passed on his first opt-out chance. The 35-year-old finished last season with nine outings (seven starts) for the Reds, allowing a 6.38 ERA in 24 innings. He returned to the organization and has started five games for their top affiliate in Louisville. He carries a 4.30 ERA over 23 frames with a modest 19% strikeout rate while walking 13% of opposing hitters. It’s not a great first few weeks but the Reds don’t have much certainty behind their top three starters. Connor Overton is on the injured list, while Luis Cessa has been rocked for 20 runs in 16 2/3 innings.

Devenski also forewent his Spring Training opt-out. The 32-year-old accepted a season-opening assignment to Triple-A Salt Lake, where he’s made seven relief outings. In nine innings, he’s allowed four runs with nine strikeouts and three walks. It’s a decent if not overwhelming performance. Devenski was an elite multi-inning relief option for the Astros between 2016-17 but he’s battled injuries and performance fluctuations since then. He threw 14 2/3 MLB innings between the Diamondbacks and Phillies last year, allowing an 8.59 ERA with a modest 17.5% strikeout rate but only walking one of the 67 hitters he faced. The Angels have a number of relievers who can’t be optioned to the minor leagues, perhaps reducing their flexibility to add another player of that ilk in Devenski.

Doolittle bypassed an opt-out chance in Spring Training after returning to Washington over the winter. He’s spent the year on the injured list as he continues to work back from last summer’s internal brace UCL surgery. The veteran threw a live batting practice session this week and could see game action in the not too distant future (via MLB.com injury tracker). It stands to reason he’ll stick with the Nats.

Duffy has spent the season on the injured list. He’s working back from forearm issues that have prevented him from throwing a major league pitch since July 2021. He already passed on a Spring Training opt-out and seems likely to do so again.

Ortega built an April 29 opt-out date into the minor league deal he signed with the Rangers earlier this month. He’d spent the spring in camp with the Yankees but didn’t crack New York’s roster and retested the market. Since signing with Texas, he’s played 17 games for Triple-A Round Rock. He carries a middling .219/.324/.313 line with one homer through 74 plate appearances. He’s drawing plenty of walks but not hitting for power and striking out a little more often than he has in recent seasons.

The lefty-hitting outfielder is coming off a reasonable .241/.331/.358 showing for the Cubs in 2022. He’s capable of playing all three outfield spots but is probably best suited for a corner. Texas has gotten strong early-season work from minor league signee Travis Jankowski and has Adolis García and Leody Taveras penciled into starting roles. The Rangers haven’t gotten much production from any of their left field options aside from Jankowski, though, and it’s questionable how long the journeyman can keep up anything approaching his current .340/.415/.447 pace.

Gamel, 31 next month, has been a decent left-handed platoon outfielder in recent seasons. He typically hits around a league average level, including a .232/.324/.369 line over 115 games with the Pirates last year. After signing with the Rays, he’s off to a .217/.316/.406 start in 79 plate appearances at Triple-A Durham. He’s walking at a customarily strong 12.7% clip but has gone down on strikes in more than 30% of his trips. Left-handed hitting outfielders Josh Lowe and Luke Raley have had excellent starts for Tampa Bay, which could make it hard for Gamel to play his way into the MLB mix anytime soon.

Hamilton, 32, returned for a second stint with the White Sox over the winter. He’s appeared in 14 games with Triple-A Charlotte but hasn’t produced, stumbling to a .150/.292/.175 batting line. The speedster has been successful on all three of his stolen base attempts but likely needs to show a little more at the plate to earn the pinch-running/defensive specialist role he’s played for a number of teams over the past four-plus seasons. The White Sox recently selected Adam Haseley onto the MLB roster to serve as a glove-first fourth outfielder.

Hoffman didn’t sign early enough to receive the automatic opt-out for Article XX(B) free agents. He negotiated opt-out chances on both May 1 and July 1 into his April deal with the Phils. The righty has pitched seven times for their top affiliate in Lehigh Valley, allowing eight runs across 7 2/3 innings. He’s punched out 13 hitters but handed out five free passes. Hoffman had a reasonable 3.83 ERA through 44 2/3 frames for the Reds last season, missing bats at a league average rate but walking nearly 12% of his opponents. The Phils only have three out of eight relievers who can’t be optioned to the minors, giving them some room to add the veteran if they’re intrigued by Hoffman’s swing-and-miss capabilities.

Naquin was an Article XX(B) free agent who didn’t break camp with the big league club. He split the 2022 campaign between the Reds and Mets, combining to hit .229/.282/.423 over 334 trips to the plate. The left-handed hitting outfielder has played in 12 games for Triple-A Nashville, hitting .273/.319/.409. He’s not hitting for much power in the early going and has never been one to take too many walks. Naquin spent a bit of time on the injured list this month but was reinstated earlier in the week.

Milwaukee lost center fielder Garrett Mitchell to a season-threatening shoulder procedure and has gotten middling offensive production from rookie outfielder Joey Wiemer. They’re soon to welcome Tyrone Taylor back from the injured list, though, and Naquin’s serviceable but unexceptional Triple-A production may not force the front office’s hand.

Rosenthal has had his last couple seasons washed away by injury. He lost 2021 to thoracic outlet syndrome and hip surgery, while his ’22 campaign was wiped out by hamstring and lat strains. The Tigers took a look at the one-time star closer in Spring Training and kept him in the organization with their highest affiliate in Toledo. Rosenthal pitched twice in the season’s first week before being placed on the minor league IL with a sprained throwing elbow. Jason Beck of MLB.com tweeted yesterday that Rosenthal is headed for physical therapy, suggesting he won’t be ready for game action in the near future.

Ross is recovering from last June’s Tommy John surgery and will spend most of the year on the injured list. He bypassed his first opt-out chance in March and seems likely to do the same next week.

Sánchez’s May 1 opt-out was built into his contract, as he didn’t sign early enough to receive the automatic opt-out under the CBA. The general expectation was that the veteran backstop would play his way onto the big league roster. That was particularly true once San Francisco lost Roberto Pérez to a season-ending shoulder injury. Sánchez hasn’t done anything to force the issue with Triple-A Sacramento, though.

He’s hitting a woeful .191/.350/.213 without a home run and a 25% strikeout rate over 13 games. Sánchez connected on 16 longballs in the majors for the Twins last year but only reached base at a .282 clip. There’s a path to playing time behind the dish at Oracle Park. Still, Sánchez’s early performance hasn’t been what the organization envisioned. Promoting him would lock in the prorated portion of a $4MM salary for this season, which could prove a disincentive for the club.

Sanchez served a depth role for Minnesota last season, logging 60 innings over 15 outings (ten starts). He was tagged for a 6.60 ERA at the MLB level but performed well enough in Triple-A the organization brought him back. He’s started five games with St. Paul this season, logging 22 1/3 innings. While his 2.42 ERA is excellent, it belies a middling 19.2% strikeout percentage and a huge 17.2% walk rate. Minnesota has quite a bit more rotation depth than they did last summer and would probably look to players already on the 40-man roster (i.e. Simeon Woods Richardson and Louie Varland) before tabbing Sanchez if injuries necessitate.

Stammen suffered a capsule tear in his shoulder in Spring Training. The 39-year-old has spent the year on the injured list and has admitted the injury might unfortunately end his career.

Looking Back At A Rare Trade Miss For The Rays

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Why do teams even bother trading with the Rays? The club has built a reputation as one that wins every deal it makes, a legend that goes back to at least 2014, based on this classic Tweet. Whenever they swing a deal, there are inevitable comments with observers wondering why other clubs even bother getting involved with Tampa when they’re bound to get fleeced.

It’s understandable why that discourse exists as the Rays have shown a knack to turn unheralded players into stars. Looking at the current roster, we find players like Randy Arozarena, Yandy Díaz, Drew Rasmussen and others who seemed to completely alter their trajectory after moving to Tampa. It’s a testament to the organization that they seem to continually get the best out of their players, whether it’s ones they’ve traded for or those they originally drafted or signed.

It’s also what helps them repeatedly field competitive clubs despite rarely spending money. They’ve made the playoffs in eight of the past 15 seasons, including each of the past four, and seem well on their way to get back there again despite playing in the stacked AL East. In the last 20 years, they’ve only once spent enough to get out of the bottom five, per the figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

That being said, no club is perfect. They are run by human beings just like all the others and they make mistakes. Let’s take a look at a deal from December 2019 that looks like a whiff.

This deal has the vague feel of a classic Rays trade, as they often take quality players and flip them for others who are almost as good but cheaper and with more control. If they help the new player become just as good or better than the one they gave up, then it works out as a nice bit of business for a low-spending club.

There’s no doubt Pham was better than Renfroe at that time. In the three years leading up to the deal, he had hit 65 home runs and slashed .284/.381/.475 for a wRC+ of 133. Renfroe’s batting line was .231/.291/.486 for a wRC+ of 102. He actually hit significantly more homers than Pham with 85, but his 7.3% walk rate was well below Pham’s 12.5% clip. He also struck out 28.5% of the time compared to Pham’s 21.7% rate. The defensive edge was debatable, as Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average preferred Renfroe while Ultimate Zone Rating gave the nod to Pham, though a lot of Pham’s work came in the more-demanding position of center field. Pham definitely provided more value on the basepaths, including stealing 65 bases to Renfroe’s 10. His 13.1 wins above replacement tally from FanGraphs in those three years was well ahead of Renfroe’s 4.3.

But turning to the financials, Pham had two years of remaining club control and was projected to make $8.6MM in 2020. Renfroe just qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player, meaning he had four years of control remaining and was projected for a $3.4MM salary. If the Rays could somehow coax some better plate discipline out of Renfroe, they could wind up with a fairly similar player for less money and more control.

Pham went on to struggle in 2020 but bounce back with a serviceable 2021 campaign. Renfroe, however, had a dismal season in 2020. He did make some slight improvements at the plate, walking at a 10.1% clip and striking out at a 26.6% rate, but he hit just .156/.252/.393 for a wRC+ of 78. His .141 batting average on balls in play certainly points to a lot of bad luck, and he’s been better since then, but the Rays decided to move on by designating him for assignment at season’s end.

There’s always risk in taking this path, assuming that the lesser player can simply be changed in a way that they replace the better player, but the Rays also had some insurance. They were getting a young prospect on the rise in Edwards. He was just the Padres’ #21 prospect coming into 2019, per Baseball America, but he hit .322/.375/.396 for a 121 wRC+ between Single-A and High-A that year. He only hit one home run, but he struck out at a tiny 9.6% rate and stole 34 bases. After the deal, BA ranked him the #85 prospect in the entire league.

Unfortunately, he never really developed any more power and the speed proved less game-changing as he moved up the minor league ladder. After the minor leagues were canceled in 2020, he went up to Double-A in 2021. He didn’t hit a single home run in 337 plate appearances over 79 games. His .302/.377/.368 batting line was still above average, translating to a wRC+ 113, but it was a bit of a drop from his breakout.

Last year, he got bumped to Triple-A and managed to hit five home runs in 400 trips to the plate, but the rest of the picture wasn’t as pretty. His 18.8% strikeout rate was still a bit below average, but it was much higher than any season before. His .246/.328/.350 line amounted to a wRC+ of 84 and he only stole seven bases in 11 tries over 93 games. This past offseason, with the Rays facing a roster crunch, they dealt Edwards and JT Chargois to the Marlins for prospects Marcus Johnson and Santiago Suarez. Johnson and Suarez were respectively ranked the club’s #25 and #17 prospects by BA coming into this year. Those youngsters mean the Rays could still salvage something from Edwards indirectly, but it’s surely not the outcome they envisioned when they initially brought him aboard. Neither Johnson nor Suarez has reached even High-A yet, so any forthcoming payday will have to wait.

The best saving grace of the deal from Tampa’s perspective right now is that the player to be named later, Quiroz, had a nice season in 2021 and was flipped to the Cubs for Harold Ramírez. This is more the classic Rays trade that we all know, where a somewhat flawed player seems to find their ceiling in Tampa. Ramírez had cracked BA’s top 100 list back in 2016 while with the Pirates, but later bounced around to Toronto, Miami and Cleveland. By the end of 2021, he had received 818 major league plate appearances but had hit .271/.308/.405 for a wRC+ of 91. For a guy with little speed and subpar defense, that wasn’t terribly exciting.

Cleveland designated Ramírez for assignment after 2021 and then flipped him to the Cubs for cash. At the end of March, the Cubs sent him to the Rays for Quiroz, seeming to indicate he wouldn’t make the team out of spring. Since he was out of options, they couldn’t send him down and at least got Quiroz out of it. The Rays would have to keep Ramírez on the active roster as well, though that hasn’t been a problem as he has mashed since the deal. In 139 games as a Ray, he’s hit .308/.353/.442 for a wRC+ of 132. He still doesn’t walk much and his defense is still subpar, but he’s hard to strike out and hits the ball hard. The Rays can control him through 2025.

From the Padres’ point of view, Pham was just okay in his two seasons there but the real coup was getting Cronenworth. A seventh round draft pick, he was never at the top of any prospect lists while in the minors. He was ranked #18 in the Rays’ system by BA in 2018 and then #15 in the Padres’ system in 2020 after the deal. He then cracked the Opening Day roster in the shortened season, striking out in just 15.6% of his plate appearances that year while hitting .285/.354/.477 for a wRC+ of 126. He hasn’t quite maintained that pace but has continued to be above average, with his career batting line now at .254/.336/.433, translating to a 114 wRC+.

He’s also provided tremendous defensive versatility, bouncing around the infield as needed. He’s mostly played second base but has also spent time at third and shortstop. When the Friars signed Xander Bogaerts to take over at short, they seemed to have little hesitation about moving Ha-Seong Kim to second and Cronenworth over to first. His DRS numbers at short are subpar, but he’s considered average or better at the other spots, while UZR and OAA think he’s average or better everywhere. The club is so enamored with him that they signed him to a seven-year, $80MM extension in the offseason.

In the end, the deal wasn’t a total loss for the Rays, since they were able to flip one of the pieces to get a solid player in Ramírez. But it shows that MLB decision makers don’t necessarily need to block phone calls coming from Tampa. You could get someone like Cronenworth or perhaps Nathaniel Lowe or maybe Willy Adames or even Blake Snell or how about José Alvarado or someone like Joe Ryan?

Padres Recall Tom Cosgrove For MLB Debut

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3:20pm: The Padres have now officially announced Cosgrove’s recall, optioning Weathers in a corresponding move.

2:09pm: The Padres are calling up left-handed reliever Tom Cosgrove, as reported by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). It’ll be the 26-year-old’s MLB debut whenever he gets into a game. Cosgrove was added to the Padres’ 40-man roster back in November to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, so they only need to make a corresponding 26-man roster move in order to accommodate his promotion to the Majors.

A 12th-round pick by the Padres back in 2017, Cosgrove has opened the 2023 season with 7 1/3 shutout frames in Triple-A, fanning seven of his 26 opponents (26.9%) but also walking four of them along the way (15.4%). Cosgrove was a starter early in his professional career but moved to the bullpen coming out of the canceled 2020 minor league season and has seen his numbers take off since the switch to short relief.

In 2021, the lefty notched a 2.36 ERA in 26 2/3 innings at the Double-A level, and he turned in a combined 3.72 ERA in 55 2/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A last year. He’s walked 10.8% of his opponents between Double-A and Triple-A but also has an impressive 33.4% strikeout rate between those two levels.

The Padres already have four lefties in their bullpen, with each of Josh Hader, Tim Hill, Ray Kerr and Ryan Weathers giving manager Bob Melvin a southpaw option. San Diego relievers rank 22nd in the Majors with a 4.71 ERA, although that number is skewed a bit by a handful of poor outings from Luis Garcia, Reiss Knehr and Nabil Crismatt. Most of the individual relievers in San Diego’s relief corps have been solid.

The Padres just had an off-day Monday, but the bullpen covered a combined four innings yesterday and a combined 11 1/3 innings in the team’s past three games overall. Cosgrove hasn’t pitched since April 22, so he’ll give them a well-rested arm to slot into the mix. He’s in the first of three minor league option years, so he could be shuttled between El Paso and San Diego several times this year.

Padres, Jose Iglesias Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Padres are signing veteran shortstop José Iglesias to a minor league deal, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). Iglesias had just opted out of a contract with the Marlins last week.

Iglesias spent the 2022 campaign with the Rockies. He played in 118 games and tallied 467 trips to the plate as Colorado’s primary shortstop, hitting .292/.328/.380 with a meager 12% strikeout rate. Iglesias demonstrated continued excellent contact skills and a similar overall offensive profile as he’s shown throughout his career. He typically runs high batting averages without a ton of power or many walks. In a little more than 4000 MLB plate appearances, the Cuba native is a .279/.319/.382 hitter.

That offense was more than reasonable while Iglesias was playing a Gold Glove caliber shortstop early in his career. Public metrics have soured on his glove since he’s gotten into his 30s. Statcast has pegged him as a league average defender in each of the past two seasons. Defensive Runs Saved, meanwhile, has graded him a staggering 26 runs worse than average at the position since the start of the 2021 campaign.

As a result, he’s been limited to successive non-roster deals with Miami and now San Diego. Iglesias stuck in the Marlins organization for a couple weeks after failing to crack the roster out of Spring Training. He didn’t appear in a Triple-A game before triggering his opt-out though. He’ll presumably join the Padres’ top affiliate in El Paso in the coming days.

Despite the dip in his defensive marks, Iglesias brings more than 4000 MLB innings of shortstop experience to the organization. The Friars already have Xander Bogaerts, Ha-Seong Kim and perhaps Fernando Tatis Jr. as options to play shortstop in the majors. Iglesias adds a veteran as injury insurance and could perhaps branch out to other infield spots in El Paso.

Padres Reinstate Joe Musgrove From 15-Day Injured List

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The Padres reinstated right-hander Joe Musgrove from the 15-day injured list, as Musgrove is slated to make his season debut in a start against the Diamondbacks tonight.  In the corresponding move, San Diego optioned righty Reiss Knehr to Triple-A.

Musgrove fractured the big toe on his left foot after an accident in the weight room in late February, and then suffered a minor shoulder injury during a rehab start that further delayed his return.  However, Musgrove only ended up missing roughly an extra week, and he now looks ready to go in his customary spot atop San Diego’s rotation.

Naturally, getting Musgrove back only further strengthens a Padres team that also got Fernando Tatis Jr. back the lineup after his PED suspension expired earlier this week.  Between these absences and several other injuries, it perhaps isn’t surprising that the Padres have gotten off a lackluster start, with only a 10-12 record heading into today’s action.

Musgrove will rejoin the rotation just as the Padres are about to enter a relatively light portion of their schedule, as from April 24 to May 29, the Padres have seven off-days.  As a result, San Diego will move to a five-man rotation of Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha, with Nick Martinez joining Ryan Weathers as bullpen reinforcement.  Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Padres’ plan is to try and keep Martinez somewhat stretched out in long relief roles, so make it easier for Martinez to step back into the rotation in the event of an injury or a rest day for one of the starters (possibly Lugo, who is still being re-acclimated to starting work after pitching as a reliever for the last few years).  Weathers could also be a multi-inning weapon out of the pen.

It’s probably unlikely that the projected starting five will last the rest of the season without another IL stint, so Martinez or Weathers are surely going to get more starts before 2023 is over.  At least in the short term, however, their usage in the bullpen will greatly help a relief corps that has been shorthanded by injuries.

Padres Reinstate Fernando Tatis Jr.

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Fernando Tatis Jr. is back in the majors. The Padres officially reinstated him from the restricted list following the completion of his performance-enhancing drug suspension on Thursday evening. San Diego optioned infielder/outfeilder Brandon Dixon to Triple-A El Paso to open room on the big league roster. The Friars transferred reliever Robert Suarez from the 15-day to the 60-day injured list.

Tatis steps into the leadoff spot tonight against Arizona right-hander Ryne Nelson. He’ll play right field in his first MLB contest since October 3, 2021. Tatis is expected to play right field on a near everyday basis in 2023. He lost his former shortstop position when San Diego inked Xander Bogaerts to a $280MM free agent contract over the winter. With Ha-Seong Kim, Jake Cronenworth and Manny Machado rounding out the infield, Tatis gets kicked onto the grass.

While there’ll certainly be some intrigue about how he acclimates to a position at which he has just 151 1/3 innings of MLB experience, the primary question will be how quickly he finds his stride offensively. Tatis was one of the game’s best hitters over his first three seasons, combining to hit .282/.364/.611 between 2019-21. By measure of wRC+, that was the ninth-best offensive output among batters with at least 500 plate appearances.

Whether the 24-year-old can recapture that kind of production remains to be seen. Since his last MLB game, he’s undergone three surgeries — two on the left wrist he fractured in a motorcycle accident, one on his left shoulder that had ailed him back to 2021. He also tested positive for the performance-enhancing drug Clostebol and was handed an 80-game suspension at the start of last August. That carried into this season, with Tatis sitting out the Friars’ first 20 games. San Diego has opened with a middling 9-11 start, allowing ten more runs than they’ve scored.

Tatis was permitted to play in Spring Training. He got into 16 exhibition games, hitting .273/.340/.432. Shortly after the regular season opened, Tatis went on a rehab stint with El Paso. He was the best hitter in the Pacific Coast League for a week. Tatis blasted seven home runs, walked six times and struck out on just three occasions in eight games. He hit .515/.590/1.212 in 39 trips to the plate for the Chihuahuas before reporting to the Padres a few days ago.

Players on the restricted list don’t count against the 40-man roster. To clear a spot, San Diego transferred Suarez to the 60-day IL. That backdates to his Opening Day placement on the injured list but still officially rules him out until the final week in May.

Suarez opened the season on the IL with inflammation in his throwing elbow. He was shut down from throwing at the start of this month after feeling continued discomfort and is without a clear recovery timetable. It’s an inauspicious start to the five-year, $46MM contract he inked at the start of last offseason. The hard-throwing Suarez provided the Padres 47 2/3 innings of 2.27 ERA ball during his initial MLB campaign last year, emerging as one of their highest-leverage relievers by the playoffs.

2023-24 Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition

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Not long ago, any given year in Major League Baseball might have seen a handful of players have player options to decide upon at the end of a season. Opt-out clauses have slowly worked their way into normalcy among contract negotiations, however, and what was once a perk typically reserved for star players has become more commonly used as a means of either sealing a deal with mid-range free agents or in many instances, gaming the luxury tax. Player options are considered guaranteed money, after all, so it’s become common for clubs on the precipice of luxury penalization to negotiate complex player options that tamp down a contract’s average annual value even though they’re unlikely to ever be exercised.

For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.

There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.

Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.

Position Players

  • Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
  • Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
  • Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
  • Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
  • Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
  • Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
  • Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
  • Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.

Pitchers

  • Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
  • Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
  • Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
  • Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
  • Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
  • Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
  • Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15  ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
  • Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
  • Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.

Juan Soto Discusses Failed Extension With Nationals, Trade To Padres

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The Padres have remade their reputation in recent years, changing from a small market team to one of the heavy hitters that is seemingly in on every notable free agent and trade candidate. That included nabbing Juan Soto last year, arguably the highest profile deadline deal in recent baseball history. Players with that much talent, youth and years of control don’t usually become available, which made it a headline-grabbing frenzy when it actually did happen.

Soto recently spoke with Stephanie Apstein of Sports Illustrated and was quite candid about how he actually didn’t enjoy the process as much as he expected. The firestorm kicked off when it was reported in mid-July that Soto had rejected a $440MM extension offer from the Nationals, which is what led to him being available in trades. It seems the outfielder wasn’t happy that those extension talks got leaked. “I wanted to do it with the Nationals, but they just made it public,” he says. “I didn’t like that at all. I hated it. I told them we weren’t speaking anymore, because they just threw everything out there.”

Although a trade seemed inevitable at that time and Soto prepared himself for it, he admitted that it hurt him more than he expected when it finally became real. Nelson Cruz, then his teammate in Washington and now again in San Diego, had to console a tearful Soto and remind him he was going to a better situation. He says that his anxiety finally abated when he returned to Washington and got a standing ovation in Nationals Park. “I really felt relieved,” he says. “I could leave that in the past and focus on Cali.” The Friars ultimately qualified for the postseason, their first playoff appearance in a full season since 2006. They knocked off the Mets and the Dodgers before falling to the Phillies in the NLCS.

Another part of the Padres’ aggressiveness has been extending their incumbent players, with Manny Machado, Yu Darvish, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth and Joe Musgrove all getting notable deals recently. It’s fair to assume they’d like to do the same with Soto, though we might not hear much about it, given his preferences. “If [the Padres can keep negotiations private], I can do it any time. I have no problem with it,” he says.

The news of him leaving nearly half a billion dollars on the table also caused a lot of stress in his inner circle, with Soto saying it put “all the fans, all the Dominicans, even my family against me.” It seemingly crept into the locker room as well. “A lot of teammates were like, ‘We respect your thinking, but that’s a lot of money,’” he says. “I’m like, ‘Guys, I’m trying to do what’s best for me and what’s best for my family.’ And you gotta go out there and perform. And you try to perform for guys that doubt you. And that’s one of the things I hated.”

The concern from those family members and teammates is presumably that Soto is taking a risk by leaving that kind of money on the table. There’s always a risk in any athlete turning down significant money, as an unexpected injury could then diminish their earning power. But Soto still has plenty of things working in his favor to get a huge payday. Since he rocketed to the majors at such a young age, he’s still only 24, younger than many top prospects who have yet to even debut. He’s slated for free agency after 2024, when he will have just turned 26 years old. This past offseason saw superstar players like Aaron Judge and Trea Turner get to $300MM and beyond, even though they were going into their age-31 and age-30 seasons, respectively. Soto is already getting $23MM this year and will get another raise via arbitration for 2024 before hitting the open market at an exceptionally young age. It’s seems well within the realm of possibility that he ends up getting more than what he walked away from.

Some Padre fans have expressed concern that Soto isn’t living up to the hype so far, as his production was a bit diminished after the trade and he’s off to a slow start here in 2023. However, the underlying numbers suggest he’s due for some positive regression. He still walked more than he struck out after coming to San Diego and the same is true again here this year. His Statcast page is still bright red, meaning there’s no reason to suspect his .185 batting average on balls in play so far this year will stay more than 100 points below his career BABIP of .306. Even with that terrible luck so far, his .175/.366/.365 batting line amounts to an above-average 106 wRC+. Once the baseball gods start smiling on him again, he should move closer to his career batting line of .283/.422/.521 and 152 wRC+.

Despite all the attention and the doubters, Soto maintains he’s in a good place. “I feel great right now,” he tells Apstein. “Forget about all this stuff. Now I’m focused on the San Diego Padres.” The club is out to a slow start, currently at 8-11, but once Soto’s fortunes change for the better, that should apply to the club as well.

Turning to other parts of the roster, the club will also be getting a boost to its rotation soon as Joe Musgrove is set to make his season debut on Saturday, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic. The righty suffered a fractured toe in a freak weight room accident back in February and has been working his way back to health since. He’s coming off arguably his best season yet, as he posted a 2.93 ERA over 30 starts last year, as well as a 2.89 ERA in three postseason starts. The club has been employing a six-man rotation recently and will have to decide who gets bumped to make room for Musgrove. Yu Darvish and Blake Snell are locks to stick, with one of Michael Wacha, Ryan Weathers, Seth Lugo or Nick Martinez in line for a move to the bullpen or the farm. Weathers is the only one of that group that can be optioned to the minors, though he also has a 2.81 ERA in the early going while Martinez and Wacha are at 5.60 and 6.06, respectively.

The bullpen could also be in line for a reinforcement in the near future, as lefty Drew Pomeranz started a rehab assignment last night. He tossed one inning for the Single-A Lake Elsinore Storm, getting a flyout, a groundout and a strikeout. Signed to a four-year, $34MM deal going into 2020, he posted a 1.45 ERA in the first year of the deal and a 1.75 in the second, striking out more than a third of batters faced in that time. Unfortunately, he required flexor tendon surgery in August of 2021 and hasn’t been on a big league mound since. Starting a rehab assignment now doesn’t necessarily mean a return is imminent, as he started a similar rehab stint in August of last year but renewed soreness shut him down. A full offseason didn’t even get him to 100%, as he dealt with inflammation during Spring Training and is only now properly ramping up. It’s hard to know what to expect from him at this point, but getting anywhere close to his excellent results from a few years ago would be most welcome.

And turning quickly to ownership, the club’s recent change in organizational attitude coincided with Peter Seidler purchasing a majority stake in the club in late 2020. It seems he plans on sticking around for a long time while continuing to run out a competitive roster. “There will never be another fire sale in San Diego, and I expect my family to own the franchise for another 50, 75 years,” he said at an event yesterday, per Evan Drellich of The Athletic. “Hopefully go for more, I’ll talk from the grave.”

Padres Announce Several Roster Moves

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The Padres announced a series of roster moves ahead of this afternoon’s game against the Brewers, optioning right-hander Domingo Tapia and utiltyman Brandon Dixon to Triple-A while recalling catcher Brett Sullivan and right-hander Reiss Knehr. The moves come on the heels of a recent injury to catcher Luis Campusano, who jammed his thumb catching a bullpen session. According to MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell, x-rays on Campusano’s thumb came back negative, but he will still be sidelined due to considerable swelling. It appears that, at least for now, Campusano will avoid a stint on the injured list, with the Padres instead opting for a three catcher roster while the 24 year-old is sidelined.

Tapia, 31, made his debut in 2020 with Boston and posted strong numbers from 2020-2021, sporting a 2.61 ERA and 3.62 FIP across 38 innings split between the Red Sox, Mariners, and Royals. He struggled badly in 17 innings with Oakland last year, however, posting a 8.47 ERA and 5.11 FIP. While those numbers are somewhat inflated by his .387 BABIP and unfortunate 62.2% strand rate, Tapia’s struggles were somewhat deserved, as well, as he actually walked more batters (14) than he struck out (12) with the A’s. Control problems have been an issue for Tapia even outside of Oakland, however, has he sports a career 13.1% walk rate and has never posted a walk rate lower than 10% in a season.

With Tapia headed to Triple-A, Knehr is set to join the Padres bullpen for the first time this season. The 26 year-old righty has pitched for the Padres in the big leagues in each of the past two seasons, with a 4.64 ERA in 42 2/3 innings over that time. Knehr struggles with control as well, with walk rates consistently over 10% in both the major leagues and Triple-A. Still, he’ll provide a fresh arm for the Padres bullpen, which has recently been taxed thanks to short starts from the club’s six-man rotation.

Dixon, meanwhile, heads to Triple-A to make room for a third catcher on the roster. The 31-year old struggled in his limited playing time with the club this season, recording just one hit and no walks while striking out eight times in his ten plate appearances with the club. Still, he figures to provide depth in the minors for the Padres, particularly given his versatility. Dixon has played all three outfield spots as well as first, second, and third base in the majors throughout his career.

Sullivan, 29, has yet to make his major league debut to this point in his career. A 17th round draft pick by the Rays in the 2015 draft, Sullivan signed with the Brewers on a major league deal during the 2021-22 offseason but was traded to the Padres in the deal that sent Victor Caratini to Milwaukee before appearing in a game for the organization. Sullivan has served as catching depth in the upper minors for the Padres ever since, and now figures to get his shot in the big leagues while Campusano is on the mend. A career .273/.321/.430 hitter in the minor leagues, Sullivan has experience in the outfield corners and at third base in addition to behind the plate.

Padres Notes: Rotation, Wacha, Engel

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Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove is expected to make his final rehab start today for the organization’s Single-A affiliate, as noted by Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune. That would put Musgrove on track to return to the Padres sometime later this week, a welcome development for a club that has seen its current six-man rotation set-up lead to an overly taxed bullpen.

With only seven relievers on the roster, the club needs its starters to be able to go deeper into games and cover more innings, but that hasn’t been the case early in the season. San Diego starters have failed to complete six innings in nine of the club’s 16 games this season, with just three starts lasting into the seventh inning. The return of Musgrove, who pitched at least six innings in 22 of his 30 regular season starts last season, should help relieve some of the load off the bullpen, but the question remains as to who Musgrove will replace in the rotation.

Ken Rosenthal suggested on FOX Sports yesterday that right-hander Nick Martinez could head to the bullpen as the odd man out, while Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union Tribune suggested that it could be young left-hander Ryan Weathers who is either optioned to Triple-A or pushed to the bullpen in order to make room for Musgrove, though Sanders notes that the club’s schedule, which includes two off-days in the final week of April and five throughout the month of May, could make the current six-man rotation setup untenable in the longer term and force the club to look at moving Martinez or righty Seth Lugo to the bullpen.

Weathers, 23, struggled to a 5.49 ERA with a 5.42 FIP the past two seasons, with all of that work except for a single 3 2/3 inning spot start coming during the 2021 campaign. He’s done well so far in 2023, posting an strong 2.70 ERA in two starts (10 innings) so far this season, though he’s struck out just five batters so far and failed to record an out in the sixth inning. By contrast, Martinez has struggled in terms of run prevention, with a 5.60 ERA across three starts, but has been able to go deeper into games, failing to make it out of the fifth inning just once while recording six and seven innings in his other two appearances.

More from San Diego…

  • As noted by Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com, Padres right-hander Michael Wacha entered the offseason hoping to return to the Red Sox, for whom he posted a 3.32 ERA in 127 1/3 innings in 2022. Cotillo notes that the Red Sox never appeared close to re-signing the 31 year-old righty, who eventually signed in San Diego on a complex four-year, $26MM deal with multiple team and player options involved. Wacha noted that Boston expressed interest in retaining him for the 2023 season, but ultimately did not get into specifics of his negotations with the club, saying that “you might have to ask [Red Sox GM Chaim Bloom] about that one.” That being said, Wacha did note the importance of San Diego’s willingness to offer a multi-year deal held in his ultimate decision to sign with the club.
  • As noted by Sanders, outfielder Adam Engel, who’s been sidelined to this point in the season with a hamstring injury. began a rehab assignment in Triple-A yesterday. With David Dahl having recently joined Engel on the injured list, the club’s outfield depth has been tested, with the likes of Rougned Odor and Brandon Dixon making recent starts in the outfield alongside Juan Soto and Trent Grisham. Engel’s impending return should provide some much-needed support to the Padres outfield, as should Fernando Tatis Jr., who is set to return from his suspension later this week.
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