Free Agent Profile: Pablo Sandoval
Pablo Sandoval has a case as the best free agent hitter this offseason, and demand is strong. The third baseman reached free agency at age 28, putting an exclamation point on his year with another huge postseason.
Strengths/Pros
Sandoval is a career .294 hitter who has hit .315 or better in multiple full seasons. Known for his incredible hand-eye coordination, he makes contact about 87% of the time. His consistency in this area has been uncanny, as he’s never dipped below 86.5% or risen above 86.9% in any of his six full seasons. What’s more, Sandoval has no clear weakness, as Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs explained. He can hit pitches in and out of the strike zone, he can hit all types of pitches, and he can hit with two strikes. In 2008, Sandoval told Lee Jenkins of Sports Illustrated, “I like every pitch, no matter where it is.”
Sandoval’s weighted runs created plus (wRC+) of 114 from 2013-14 ranked ninth among third basemen. This stat is park and league-adjusted, giving Sandoval some credit for playing in a pitchers’ park.
Sandoval’s postseason heroics in 2012 and 2014 are legendary. He won the World Series MVP in 2012, hitting .500 with three home runs as part of an excellent postseason overall. This year, he raked to the tune of .366/.423/.465 in the postseason. Just 28 years old, Sandoval has already collected three rings with the Giants.
Though he’s a big guy, Sandoval plays a solid third base. His ultimate zone rating and defensive runs saved marks were both above average this year.
We’ve mentioned that Sandoval is just 28 years old. Such youth is a rarity for a free agent, and it’s a function of Sandoval reaching the Majors at age 21 and not signing an extension that gave up free agent years. The unique cases of Cuban free agents aside, Sandoval is the youngest prominent free agent hitter along with Colby Rasmus, who was born on the same day.
Weaknesses/Cons
For all his postseason success, Sandoval’s regular season was his worst with the bat since 2010. His 6.1% walk rate was a career-worst for a full season, and it resulted in an unspectacular .324 on-base percentage. And while Sandoval flashed 25 home run pop early in his career, he’s averaged about 15 per 600 plate appearances over the last three seasons. He’s slugged just .416 over the last two campaigns, 67th among qualified hitters. This year in the regular season, Sandoval was roughly the hitter Trevor Plouffe, Daniel Murphy, or Brett Gardner was. Those are above average hitters, but not middle of the order cornerstones.
Sandoval’s baserunning has always been a detriment, bringing his overall value down. He has totaled 7.9 wins above replacement over the last three seasons, 81st in baseball among position players. He’s in a virtual tie with guys like Jon Jay and Jed Lowrie, who might be described as useful but are certainly not considered stars or among the best as their respective positions. By measure of WAR, Sandoval ranked 14th among third basemen this year, seven spots below fellow free agent third baseman Chase Headley.
Sandoval is listed at 5-foot-11 and 245 pounds, making him one of the game’s heaviest regular position players. He’s been at least 30 pounds heavier than that at different points. Using pounds per inch, Daniel Meyer of Beyond the Box Score noted, “Deep into the history of the past 143 years of recorded baseball history no player of Sandoval’s proportions has played more than a season’s worth of games at third base,” making Sandoval a trailblazer in what he’s done already. His weight raises questions about how well he’ll age, his future durability, and when he might have to move off the hot corner. Talk about Sandoval’s weight and conditioning have followed him throughout his career, as chronicled by Jorge L. Ortiz of USA Today in February this year.
Since he received and turned down a one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offer from the Giants, signing Sandoval will require draft pick forfeiture.
Personal
Sandoval was born in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela. He was born left-handed but learned to throw with his right hand at the age of nine so he could play catcher. Switch-hitting followed his switch-throwing a few years later. The Giants signed him in 2003 at age 16, as a catch-and-throw specialist behind the plate.
Sandoval is an exuberant player who usually has a smile on his face and is beloved by fans. He is nicknamed Kung Fu Panda, a name bestowed on him by teammate Barry Zito in 2008 when Sandoval scored a run by jumping over the catcher’s tag. The nickname took off, with thousands of Giants fans making Panda gear ubiquitous.
Sandoval has two daughters and resides in Venezuela in the offseason.
Market
So far in free agency, Sandoval has been pursued heavily by the Giants and is in Boston today for a meeting with the Red Sox. The Padres, Blue Jays, and White Sox have also been connected, and agent Gustavo Vasquez met with most or all of the teams at last week’s GM Meetings. Just to expand the field as far as possible, teams such as the Yankees, Tigers, Astros, Angels, and Marlins don’t have third base entirely locked down even if they haven’t been linked to Sandoval recently. Sandoval has been a member of the Giants for his entire career, and after past championships the Giants retained their players. Prior to the season, the Giants reportedly tried to start the conversation with a three-year, $40MM offer with Sandoval seeking five years and $100MM+.
With Aramis Ramirez having re-signed with the Brewers, Sandoval’s third base competition consists of Headley and perhaps Hanley Ramirez. Headley holds the advantage of not being eligible for a qualifying offer. Plus, his defense-oriented profile won’t cost nearly as much. The trade market at third base is light, with perhaps Luis Valbuena, David Freese, Casey McGehee, Pedro Alvarez, and Plouffe in the mix.
Expected Contract
Perhaps because of the postseason, his age, or the promise Sandoval showed in years like 2009, this is a player who is valued by the market well beyond his regular season statistics.
Vasquez has come right out and said his client is focused on the length of his deal and that six years would be reasonable given his age (Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reporting). Most agents don’t speak about that publicly, and most also seek one year more than they might privately expect the player to receive. I think in this case, Vasquez really does expect six years, and Sandoval will receive such an offer in the end. It is difficult to picture seven years unless that seventh year comes very cheaply.
Expectations seem to be for an average annual value of $18-20MM for Sandoval. I’m going with a six-year, $114MM deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Multiple Teams Interested In Justin Masterson
The Braves, Cubs, Giants, Red Sox, Royals and Twins are six of the teams thought to have asked for Justin Masterson’s medicals or otherwise checked in on the right-hander, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter links). Though Masterson is coming off an injury-plagued season, he is drawing significant interest and could find a two-year deal on the open market. The Indians, Masterson’s former club, are also reportedly in the mix for the 29-year-old.
It’s no surprise that Masterson is generating this much free agent buzz, as the righty averaged 199 IP from 2010-13 and was one of the game’s best starters during the 2013 season. As MLBTR’s Zach Links noted in his Free Agent Profile of Masterson, a team could be in for a major bargain if the righty regains his old form. Whether he signs for one year or two, Masterson seems destined for a short-term deal as he’s banking on that return to form and the opportunity to set himself up for a more expensive multiyear deal next winter or after the 2016 season.
The six teams Crasnick lists present an interesting array of suitors, incorporating the two pennant winners, three teams looking to return to contention in 2015 and the rebuilding Twins, who can offer Masterson a pitcher-friendly ballpark to help rebuild his value. Team defense is also undoubtedly a big factor for Masterson, an extreme ground ball pitcher with a 56.6% career grounder rate.
Korean Lefty Hyeon-jong Yang To Be Posted Monday
NOV. 13: Yang will be posted next Monday, the 17th, reports Feinsand in an updated piece. Feinsand notes that the Yankees might show interest in the lefty, and he lists the Cubs, Astros, Giants and Red Sox as other clubs with potential interest.
NOV. 4: Another high profile Korean pitcher and his KBO team have decided to take a run through the posting system. As Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports, lefty Hyeon-jong Yang will be posted by the Kia Tigers in the next few weeks.
Yang joins countryman (and fellow 26-year-old southpaw) Kwang-Hyun Kim in preparing for the posting process. Kim outperformed Yang last year, registering a 3.42 ERA to the 4.25 mark notched by Yang in a notoriously hitter-friendly environment.
Feinsand’s sources tell him that Yang has a low-to-mid 90’s fastball and useful slider (as well as a curve and change) that could hold appeal. According to the Yonhap News Agency, which recently reported that Yang was interested in coming to North America, Yang’s 2014 season was fairly characteristic of his results. Over his career, per Yonhap, he has struck out 740 over 860 1/3 frames.
Latest On Yasmany Tomas
3:40pm: MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes hears that three of the four teams set to meet with Tomas would have been seen as “very unlikely” suitors, suggesting they’re of the dark horse variety (Twitter link). Meanwhile, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News tweets that the Padres are no longer seen as a fit for Tomas.
Hall of Fame reporter Peter Gammons hears that Giants special assistant Felipe Alou is pushing the team to sign Tomas as a third baseman (Twitter link). Gammons also hears that the Phillies would likely have to clear some money in order to add Tomas.
Additionally, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported yesterday that Oakland has scouted and discussed Tomas, though they wouldn’t be involved at the rumored $100MM price tag. She speculates that if Tomas were open to a shorter-term deal that allowed him to hit free agency faster, Oakland would be in play.
3:26pm: Alou is still expected to meet with four MLB GMs in the Dominican in the next two days, he tells Arangure (Twitter link).
2:05pm: Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas is scheduled to fly to the United States tomorrow to meet with his agent, Jay Alou Jr., Jorge Arangure of Vice Sports reports on Twitter. A deal appears imminent, per Arangure, and could come as soon as this weekend.
Tomas, 24 tomorrow, has drawn significant interest around the league from clubs intrigued by the possibility of fielding his power bat through his prime years, a rare opportunity in the current market. There have been varying reports as to Tomas’s timeline for signing, with some suggesting that he is moving quickly with a small group of frontrunners and others indicating that a wide-open battle for his services is just beginning.
Argangure’s report does not give any indication of the team with which Tomas could be nearing a deal. Needless to say, Tomas ‘s ultimate destination will have an important bearing on the rest of the free agent market.
Pablo Sandoval Rumors: Wednesday
Here’s the latest on Pablo Sandoval, with the newest items at the top of the post…
- The Marlins and Yankees have yet to express any interest in Sandoval, MLB Daily Dish’s Chris Cotillo tweets. Both teams were cited as possible suitors for the Panda’s services before the offseason began.
- Sandoval could be something of an underrated value, as WEEI.com’s Alex Speier compares the slugger to past comparables in similar free agent situations.
- Sandoval’s market seems to be down to the Giants and Red Sox, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links). Boston is “weighing other options” and in need of a “big play” to dislodge San Francisco as the favorite to sign the Panda. Rosenthal cautions that things could change rapidly, of course, if another team sees an opportunity to get into the bidding. The White Sox and Blue Jays have also been linked to Sandoval this offseason but their “interest seems limited.”
AL East Notes: Andrus, Butler, Markakis, BoSox
It would be “the longest of long shots” if the Yankees acquired Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus this offseason, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports. Andrus’ eight-year, $120MM extension begins in 2015 and the Yankees aren’t interested in paying that type of superstar money to a player who hasn’t yet delivered on that level. “You would have to hope he turned a big corner if you took on that contract,” an executive tells Feinsand. “If he never gets any better, that’s a lot of money for a good — but pretty ordinary — player.” Ironically, the Yankees’ long-standing interest in Andrus was part of the reason why Texas extended him in the first place, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. It’s worth noting that Andrus has opt-out clauses in his deal after both the 2018 and 2019 seasons, so the financial commitment may not quite be as lengthy as it seems.
Here’s some more from around the AL East…
- There isn’t any truth to reports that the Orioles made a three-year, $30MM offer to Billy Butler, a member of the organization tells MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. While the O’s have had interest in Butler, Kubatko feels the team wouldn’t spend that much on a full-time DH.
- The Orioles will meet with Nick Markakis‘ agent Jamie Murphy today, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter). The O’s are still seen as the favorites to sign Markakis, though the Blue Jays and other teams are interested in the veteran outfielder. Earlier this week, Murphy said that the Orioles weren’t one of the several teams he planned to speak with about his client during the GM Meetings.
- Though Yoenis Cespedes‘ name has frequently been mentioned in trade rumors, Red Sox GM Ben Cherington told reporters (including MLB.com’s Ian Browne) that those rumors aren’t “based in any sort of evidence. We’re happy to have him. We felt like as we were building a lineup for next year, adding that power element in the middle of the lineup was critically important to us. So now that we have it, we’re not really anxious to give it away. We believe he’s very important in 2015, and 2015 is very important to us.”
- Cherington spent “an extended period of time” talking with Jon Lester‘s agents last night, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford tweets.
- The Rays interviewed Giants bench coach Ron Wotus about their managerial opening yesterday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Of the ten candidates on the Rays’ list, the team still has to speak to Barry Larkin, Doug Glanville and Kevin Cash before getting into the second round of interviews.
- In other AL East news from earlier today, we published a collection of Blue Jays notes, the Yankees signed lefty Jose De Paula and the Orioles are shopping right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez.
Yasmany Tomas Rumors: Tuesday
Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas will celebrate his 24th birthday on Friday, and it will surely be a happy one given the lucrative contract on the horizon. Yesterday, agent Jay Alou explained the Phillies’ standing in the Tomas derby, telling reporters including Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com, “There are several teams that I could say are frontrunners, but yes (the Phillies are one of them).” Surprisingly, the Phillies have yet to make a formal offer, but Alou says, “It will all get going soon.”
Today’s Tomas rumors…
- Tomas is drawing interest from the Orioles, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal also notes on Twitter that the chase for Tomas is still heating up, with two teams set to visit him in the Dominican next week and others still weighing pursuit.
Earlier Updates
- The Royals have entered the Tomas sweepstakes, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Royals don’t feel that Tomas has the same type of advanced hitting skills that countryman Jose Abreu brought to the division-rival White Sox, but they have a need for a right fielder and feel his defense is at least adequate. The Royals like Melky Cabrera as well but Tomas would allow them to preserve their first-round pick, whereas Cabrera received and rejected a qualifying offer from Toronto.
- The Phillies, Padres and Giants have each seen Tomas three times, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. He also reports that agent Jay Alou rejected an eight-year offer (though he doesn’t specify the value), preferring a five to seven year term to get Tomas onto the open market again around his age-30 season. The Mariners also like Tomas but aren’t expected to outbid other clubs, according to Heyman.
- Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that the Rangers aren’t likely to sign Tomas. Starting pitching is said to be the team’s top priority, and sources tell Wilson that the Rangers have informed Alou that their resources will be dedicated to that goal.
- How about the $100MM figure that has been bandied about for Tomas? “I don’t know where that came from, but he’d be happy and I’d be happy,” says Alou. In my September profile of Tomas, I posited a seven-year, $105MM contract. More recently, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports went with eight years and $100MM, an agent who spoke to Heyman said seven years and $93MM, and a GM said eight years, $100MM. Eight years is an interesting call, because that would mean Tomas would be giving up a potential valuable free agent season. Seven would be more aligned with typical MLB service time for a top prospect, who can put in just shy of seven years before reaching free agency if called up a few weeks into the season.
- Yesterday, Jorge Arangure Jr. had an excellent profile of Tomas for Vice Sports. In it, Arangure said Tomas will likely choose a team from the Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox, Mariners, and Padres, who have all scouted the player several times. Tomas’ Dominican-based trainer Raul Javier, asked when the player would sign, replied, “Very soon.”
Ten Teams Showing Interest In Torii Hunter
At least ten teams have reached out to express interest in Torii Hunter, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today, and the free agent’s most aggressive suitors are in the very familiar AL Central. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Royals, Twins, Tigers, Cubs, Giants, Rangers and Mariners have all shown some early interest in Hunter (Twitter links). Hunter’s preference is to remain in Detroit, he adds, but his fate may be tied to that of Victor Martinez, as the Tigers likely can’t re-sign both.
Though Hunter turns 40 next July, he still enjoyed a productive season at the plate in a fairly pitcher-friendly home environment, hitting .286/.319/.446 with 17 homers in 586 plate appearances. His defensive game, however, appears to have slipped as Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at -18 runs and Ultimate Zone Rating agreed (-18.3).
Given his age, I’d think Hunter’s priority would be signing with a team he expects to contend in 2015 rather than maxing out his contract or perhaps making a sentimental return to his former Minneapolis stomping grounds.
Pablo Sandoval To Meet With Four Teams This Week
SUNDAY: Sandoval’s camp will also meet with the Giants, Blue Jays and White Sox, Cotillo reports.
SATURDAY: The Red Sox will meet with Pablo Sandoval and agent Gustavo Vasquez at the GM meetings in Arizona next week, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish was the first to report the scheduled meeting. The Red Sox reportedly headed into the offseason with Sandoval and Chase Headley as their top priorities. Sandoval rejected a qualifying offer from the Giants last week, and is instead reportedly seeking a nine-figure deal, possibly for six years. Cafardo notes that, along with the Red Sox and Giants, the Blue Jays and White Sox currently seem to be the most interested in Sandoval.
Boston would want to use Sandoval as its third baseman, Cafardo reports, although he notes that, unlike the Giants and other NL teams, the Red Sox could also eventually use Sandoval at DH if his physique prevented him from staying at third. The switch-hitting Sandoval’s ability to hit from the left side would also be a benefit for Boston. With Sandoval in the Majors, the Red Sox could send Will Middlebrooks, who can still be optioned, to Triple-A Pawtucket.
Pablo Sandoval Seeking Six-Year Deal
Pablo Sandoval is seeking a six-year contract on the open market, his agent Gustavo Vasquez tells Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Given his client’s age, Vasquez doesn’t feel that a four- or five-year deal is a sensible target. “Maybe if he was 30 or 31 we could talk about four or five years,” Vasquez said to Schulman. “But he’s 28. He deserves more than that.”
Vasquez explained to Schulman that the six-year term of the contract is more important to Sandoval than the average annual value. That comment isn’t surprising, as a player will typically downgrade a contract’s AAV as the years increase. While he said Sandoval has no specific dollar figure in mind, other reports have indicated a target north of $100MM. So, while the AAV of the deal may be somewhat flexible, it seems Vasquez must be eyeing at least a $17MM annual salary for his client.
The Giants have yet to make a formal offer and instead have been discussing various options regarding the length of the deal, according to Vasquez. He’s already spoken to multiple teams about Sandoval and is expected to have several face-to-face meetings at next week’s GM Meetings in Phoenix. The agent notes that Sandoval isn’t necessarily interested in dragging out the process and would sign quickly if he received an offer he likes.
As Schulman writes, he got a different sense from Giants GM Brian Sabean regarding an offer to Sandoval at the team’s postseason debriefing. Sabean told reporters that the Giants have explained to free agents Jake Peavy and Ryan Vogelsong that they first need to sort of Sandoval’s situation before moving onto them, and his comments did imply that they’ve made some form of offer: “We’ve told both Peavy and Vogelsong we need time to sort things out. Again, it goes back to Pablo. Pablo is the only one we’ve engaged as far as an offer and moving forward. The other four free agents know where we stand.”
Sandoval figures to be an attractive option on the free agent market this winter, though it remains to be seen whether any team will be be comfortable with his desired six-year term. The Red Sox have been linked to him on multiple occasions, and the Marlins are another team reported to have interest. Sandoval would also make sense for the White Sox. The Yankees have a definite need in the infield, though to this point, they’re not focused on Sandoval and are said to prefer to re-sign Chase Headley.