NL West Notes: Dodgers, Giants, Cole
Jason Hammel and Ian Kennedy, who were both acquired in trades, will take the hill against one another tonight with identical 3-1 records and comparable ERAs (Hammel: 3.23, Kennedy: 3.92). Here's the latest on their division before this evening’s Rockies–D'Backs contest…
- Andre Ethier told Yahoo's Tim Brown that he isn't worried about the Dodgers' ability to make payroll. Owner Frank McCourt may not have enough money to pay his players on June 1st because of his financial troubles.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports agrees with Giants manager Bruce Bochy and GM Brian Sabean: their team is a work in progress.
- As Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic explains, it's possible that UCLA right-hander Gerrit Cole will be available to the D'Backs when they select third overall in this June's amateur draft.
New York Notes: Ortegano, Hughes, Reyes
The Yankees and Mets both face off against strikeout artists tonight, as Max Scherzer and Tim Lincecum take the mound against New York's two teams. In the meantime, here are some related links…
- Five days after releasing him, the Yankees re-signed left-hander Jose Ortegano to a minor league deal, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America (on Twitter).
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman told Chad Jennings of the Journal News that Phil Hughes' shoulder is feeling better after a cortisone shot. It appears that it will be at least a couple of weeks before Hughes starts throwing again.
- Giants GM Brian Sabean last spoke with Mets GM Sandy Alderson in January, according to Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com (on Twitter). Sabean strongly dismissed Jose Reyes trade rumors, speaking to Ian Begley of ESPNNewYork.com. Though the Giants have reportedly discussed Reyes, a deal is not at all imminent. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes examined how Reyes could fit on the Giants yesterday.
- Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles weighs in on whether the Giants should deal for Reyes and concludes that he's probably not worth what the Mets will want for him.
Heyman On Pujols, Reyes, Feliz
SI's Jon Heyman leads his latest column with a discussion of Albert Pujols' impending free agency. Three GMs Heyman spoke to speculate that Pujols will re-sign with the Cardinals after the season. One significant factor could be the lack of involvement from the Yankees and Red Sox, big spenders who already have long-term solutions at first base. A Yankees person told Heyman there was "no chance" of a pursuit, while a Red Sox person agreed that his club is unlikely to get involved. Cardinals GM John Mozeliak didn't have much to say on the topic, other than, "Nothing's changed." On to Heyman's other notes…
- Mozeliak told Heyman the Cardinals "have a pretty good idea" of what they'll do when Adam Wainwright's two-year, $21MM club option comes up after the season. Heyman takes that to mean that the Cardinals will pick up the option, the expected course of action.
- Heyman feels that the Cubs and Orioles could be possibilities for free agent Kevin Millwood, though I heard yesterday that it's doubtful the Cubs get involved.
- One Giants person said, "There's nothing to it," regarding the recent Jose Reyes speculation. Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News explained today that "If any conversations have happened at all, it’s nothing more than tire kicking." That makes sense, since trading season begins about two months from now. For a look at who the Giants might have to give up to get Reyes at that point, click here.
- Heyman finds the Rangers likely to move Neftali Feliz into the rotation next year, despite the righty's recent comments. Heyman feels that a strong free agent closer market is a factor.
- The Tigers have decided this will be Joel Zumaya's last year in Detroit, according to Heyman. That was written prior to today's report that Zumaya will have exploratory elbow surgery.
Giants Have Discussed Jose Reyes
The Giants have discussed Jose Reyes as a possible trade target, according to Mychael Urban of CSNBayArea.com. San Francisco is considering addressing its shortstop problems with a trade and Urban hears that the Mets have decided to field offers for Reyes and his $11MM salary this summer.
Miguel Tejada struggled at short and at the plate before the Giants moved him to third base, where he’ll cover for the injured Pablo Sandoval and Mark DeRosa. Mike Fontenot is now starting at short for the Giants, so Reyes would represent a definitive upgrade.
Tim Dierkes analyzed the Giants-Reyes connection earlier today, suggesting which players the Mets might target and which players the Giants should hold onto. It's not surprising that the Giants have discussed Reyes – fans and media members have also wondered if he'd be a fit in San Francisco – and it doesn't mean he's available now or that the Giants would meet the Mets' asking price.
Urban hears that Reyes could look to match Carl Crawford’s seven-year, $142MM deal when he hits free agency this winter. The 27-year-old shortstop has two hits and two walks against the Giants tonight, for what it's worth.
Quick Hits: Phillies, Mariners, Twins, Belt
Six years ago today, Robinson Cano made his MLB debut. Since then, all he's done is hit .309/.346/.493, make two All-Star teams, club 124 home runs and help the Yankees win another World Series. Here are today's links, as Cano and the Yankees take on the Tigers…
- As Paul Hagen of the Philadelphia Daily News explains, the Phillies' roster now has far more Latin American players than it did two-plus decades ago, when current third base coach Juan Samuel was still playing.
- Mariners president Chuck Armstrong told Peter Gammons of MLB.com that the M's have no intention of trading the defending Cy Young winner. "It's ridiculous when people talk about our trading Felix," Armstrong said. "We have Felix [Hernandez] and [Michael] Pineda for five years. Why would we move either one?"
- As Yahoo's Jeff Passan explains, the 9-18 Twins could use former teammate Mike Redmond and his… unconventional way of busting out of slumps.
- Giants manager Bruce Bochy acknowledged that he and GM Brian Sabean have discussed promoting Brandon Belt back to the Major Leagues, according to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News.
The Giants And Jose Reyes
After being shut out by Tom Gorzelanny last night, the Giants rank second to last in the NL with 3.54 runs scored per game. "We're awful right now," manager Bruce Bochy told reporters last night. Pablo Sandoval, Andres Torres, and Mark DeRosa are currently on the disabled list. Aubrey Huff, Miguel Tejada, and Cody Ross have been terrible so far, while Buster Posey has failed to meet lofty expectations in the early going.
Chatter for the Giants to recall Brandon Belt is increasing, as he's killed the ball in nine games for the Fresno Grizzlies. CBS' Danny Knobler wondered this morning whether Belt can be the Posey of 2011, providing the team's offense with a jolt.
ESPN's Buster Olney speculated on another possibility this morning in his blog, a potential acquisition Giants fans inquire about every week in my chats. Mets shortstop Jose Reyes is off to a .309/.348/.439 start, similar to his career averages and a big upgrade over Tejada offensively and defensively. The Giants would have to accommodate Reyes' $11MM salary, $3.57MM of which will still be owed to him if he's acquired on July 31st. Also, the Giants "would have to give up a really, really good young player — the Mets presumably would ask for a top-of-the-line young pitcher," in Olney's opinion. Interesting side note: Olney guesses that Reyes "could be convinced to stay by a solid multi-year offer," rather than test free agency.
One factor determining the Mets' asking price for Reyes will be how many other teams are seriously in the mix for him. The Twins could make an offer, but only if they pull themselves up out of the AL Central gutter. The Athletics could use a boost at shortstop. The Brewers are a nice match, though their farm system is depleted.
The cost of renting a star position player has varied in recent years. A few examples:
- In July of 2009, the Cardinals acquired Matt Holliday and $1.5MM from the Athletics for Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen, and Shane Peterson. Prior to the '09 season, ESPN's Keith Law ranked Wallace 19th among all prospects, while Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein had him 37th.
- In July of 2008, the Angels acquired Mark Teixeira from the Braves for Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek. Marek wasn't a top 100 prospect, but he ranked sixth among Angels prospects before that season according to Baseball America. BA ranked the Halos' farm system tenth in baseball. Kotchman was 25 at the time, coming off a strong '07 season. He was under team control through 2011 and owned a career line of .274/.337/.426. Prior to his time in the Majors, BA had ranked Kotchman among their top 22 prospects four separate times.
These aren't great comparables, since Wallace was a top position player prospect and Kotchman was a decently-regarded first baseman headed for his second arbitration year. Technically the Giants have a top position player prospect in Belt, who is universally considered among the top 25 prospects in the game. I can't picture the Giants considering trading Belt's career for a couple months of Reyes, however.
If the Mets do focus on pitching, as Olney suggests, they'd have to ask for Zack Wheeler. The righty was drafted sixth overall in '09 and is one of the 55 best prospects in the game on all lists.
At the big league level, the Giants have two established starters the Mets could try to acquire. One is Jonathan Sanchez, a solid lefty with a walk problem. He's under team control through 2012; how much value would his '12 season at a salary of $8MM or so be of to the Mets? Perhaps GM Sandy Alderson could flip Sanchez for longer-term players. The Giants also have southpaw Madison Bumgarner, who is more valuable than Belt and controlled through 2016. Like Belt, Bumgarner is way too much for Reyes.
The Giants do have the pieces to acquire Reyes, depending on how far they are willing to go. I don't think it would take much more than Wheeler, if the Giants make that sacrifice. Using Wheeler to get Reyes would at least allow the Giants to keep their big league rotation intact. Building a deal around Sanchez would be easier to stomach long-term, but would leave a pretty big hole in the team's rotation. And since Sanchez is only controlled through '12, the Giants might have to further dip into their stash of prospects to appease the Mets. Though the Giants' farm system is considered among the bottom ten in the game, they do have interesting prospects beyond Belt and Wheeler.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Lincecum’s Historic Arbitration Case
The Giants avoided a historic arbitration case with ace Tim Lincecum last year, agreeing to a two-year, $23MM deal. That contract just delayed the inevitable, as Lincecum will still be arbitration eligible after the 2011 season and the Beverly Hills Sports Council client is in line for an unprecedented payday.
No Comparables
When you talk to agents about Lincecum's upcoming arbitration case, you hear phrases like "uncharted waters" and "lands unknown." There is no arbitration comparable; the 26-year-old already has two Cy Young awards. Said one agent, "They will use all of the free agent numbers here, including C.C. Sabathia (even if he opts out), Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and everyone else with an impressive, cool silver and black plaque hanging in their basement. This negotiation will transcend arbitration and will be a mini free agency discussion."
The Raise Argument
All the agents I spoke to pegged Lincecum's 2012 salary in the $19-22MM range assuming he has a "normal" year. That's normal by Lincecum standards – something like last year's 3.43 ERA. That kind of season easily lends itself to an argument that Lincecum deserves much better than the $5.9MM raise Carlos Zambrano received in 2007, based on both platform year and career bulk. Lincecum is coming from a $14MM salary in 2011, so his agent Rick Thurman could demand a $7MM+ raise.
Assuming cases for pitchers such as Jered Weaver, John Danks, and Matt Garza are settled first, they could have a bearing on Lincecum. Most agents put Weaver in the $14-15MM range, but if he finds his way to $16-17MM, Lincecum's agent could argue for a bigger raise.
Another Cy Young?
Only eight pitchers have won three or more Cy Young awards, and none of them accomplished the feat by their fifth season. If Lincecum wins the award this year, he has a good case to be the highest-paid pitcher of all time. That means a salary beyond Lee's $24MM, perhaps well beyond. If Lee is worthy of five years at $24MM per, how much extra would it be worth to reduce the risk to a one-year deal? If Lincecum were a free agent after '11, coming off a Cy Young and limiting himself to a one-year deal, something like $28MM would be within reach. Multiple agents believe another Cy Young would propel Lincecum to $25MM or more for 2012.
Thinking About 2013
Lincecum is a Super Two player, meaning he's eligible for arbitration four times. If he lands a $25MM salary for 2012, the stakes would get even higher for '13. At that point even a .500 year in '12 would almost have to result in a $5MM raise, putting Lincecum at $30MM and putting the Giants in a tough spot.
Long-Term Possibilities
Lincecum might have been earning close to $20MM this year had the Giants not signed him to a two-year deal in February of 2010. The team figures to be motivated to attempt another multiyear deal. Lincecum, having already earned more than most pitchers who sign extensions during their arbitration years, might not be looking for the maximum number of years on an extension now. How about four years $90MM – $18MM in '12, $22MM in '13, and $25MM in '14 and '15? That'd allow Lincecum to reach free agency at age 31 and go for his first $100MM deal.
If he did try to maximize the term on a new contract, Lincecum could look for eight years. No matter how you slice it, an eight-year deal would exceed Sabathia's $161MM and be the largest contract ever for a pitcher.
Conclusion
The 2011-12 offseason is packed with fascinating storylines, led by possible free agency for Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, and Sabathia. But we may still have plenty to talk about in January and February, with all eyes on Lincecum's contract situation.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Quick Hits: Minaya, Weaver, Danks, Zimmerman
Emilio "Millito" Navarro, believed to be the oldest living professional baseball player at 105, passed away in Puerto Rico today. The former Negro Leaguer also played in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, and Puerto Rico during his career. Our condolences go out to his family.
- Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain-Dealer reports that former Mets GM Omar Minaya has spent the past two days on a "friendly visit" with Indians GM Chris Antonetti, president Mark Shapiro, and manager Manny Acta. Cleveland interviewed former Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes during the offseason, and Hoynes says Antonetti has "made [it] no secret that he'd like to add the right person to the front office."
- While researching the impending free agency of young stars, SI's Jon Heyman (via Twitter) learned that we can count on Jered Weaver and John Danks filing after 2012.
- It's been a bad day for star third basemen, writes Justin Sablich of the New York Times. The Giants lost Pablo Sandoval for 4-6 weeks with a broken bone in his right wrist and the Nationals announced that Ryan Zimmerman, who has been on the disabled list since April 12, will miss at least an another six weeks. If both players return within those timeframes, it's unlikely that either squad will look for an out-of-house fill-in.
- Matt Klaassen of Fangraphs questions the Blue Jays' wisdom in demoting Travis Snider to work on his hitting after just 99 plate appearances in 2011.
Stark On Rangers, DeRosa, Phillies, Papelbon
Joey Votto is the player of the month for ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark, who hears from a scout that the Reds’ first baseman is more feared than anybody in the National League, including Albert Pujols. Here are the rest of Stark’s rumors:
- One NL executive thinks the Mariners are so far from winning that they should be listening to offers for Felix Hernandez, who is under team control through 2014. Yesterday, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports heard from a number of executives who expect King Felix to stay put for now.
- An AL official says the Rangers are the most likely candidate to trade for a high-profile reliever this summer. Their bullpen has taken a number of hits, with Neftali Feliz and Darren O’Day on the DL and Alexi Ogando moving to the rotation.
- Stark hears that the only players available now are those with “awful contracts.”
- Despite the buzz about Mark DeRosa and the Marlins, Stark hears that the Giants and Marlins have not had serious discussions about the currently-injured utility player.
- The Phillies will find it hard to add payroll this summer, but they’re eyeing potentially available bats.
- Though Jonathan Papelbon will likely test the free agent market after the season, Stark gets the impression that the reliever could re-sign in Boston after all.
Heyman On Lincecum, Cano, Votto, Weaver, Dodgers
Ryan Braun's $105MM, five-year contract extension through 2020 seemed like it came out of nowhere, but a ton of other young stars also appear to be in line for new deals, writes Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated. Heyman runs down the 20-somethings that could get hefty contract extensions and touches on a few other things in today's column..
- Giants ace Tim Lincecum won't be a free agent until after the 2013 season, but San Francisco would be wise to lock him up before his arbitration numbers get out of hand. A third Cy Young season could potentially bring Lincecum from $14MM into the $25MM range and possibly to $30MM in '13. Heyman expects a deal to get done, even if it costs the club a fortune. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes touched on the Lincecum situation here and here, and will have much more on the topic next week.
- Similarly, there's no reason to think the Yankees would let Robinson Cano leave in the prime of his career. The Bombers have options for 2012 and '13 at $14MM and $15MM, respectively, and will obviously exercise them. Look for the Yanks to get a deal done with the second baseman, but only after the Scott Boras client files for free agency.
- Reds slugger Joey Votto will hit the open market after 2013 and it would be wise for the club to lock him up as the youngster continues to improve. This winter he signed a three-year, $38MM to take care of his arbitration years, but his rate will presumably rise after that deal is up. Heyman believes that the Reds will lock up Votto, just as they did with Jay Bruce. This winter, Cincinnati signed the right fielder to a six-year, $51MM deal.
- Even though the Marlins' poor attendance would seem to indicate that the club doesn't have the funds to sign Josh Johnson to a new deal, they are on their way to a brand-new facility in the near future. Putting that aside, they're still in the black. His $39MM, four-year deal goes through 2013 but his next contract should easily top that.
- If you're a Halos fan looking to purchase a Jered Weaver jersey, you may want to reconsider. Heyman writes that the right-hander is all but a goner in two years. Agent Scott Boras is talking his client up and the Angels don't have a history of keeping their top free agents anyway. It's possible that the next Dodgers owner, assuming there is one, could talk the Simi Valley product into a homecoming.
- It may come as a surprise to some, but Heyman predicts that Andre Ethier will remain with the Dodgers beyond 2012. GM Ned Colletti is believed to want to lock up Ethier along with Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. Even though the Dodgers' situation is probably too messy for anything to get done right away, they have to act fast to keep the 29-year-old.
- You can also expect the Dodgers to work something out with Kemp, who is also a free agent after 2012.
- Of the 33 players that Heyman profiles, he expects most to get new deals done with their respective clubs. Some of the players that we may see elsewhere: John Danks, Shin Soo-Choo, Jonathan Sanchez, Justin Morneau, Grady Sizemore, and Shaun Marcum.
- TV magnate Burt Sugarman is one name believed to be in the mix among potential buyers of the Dodgers. Investment banker Jason Reese and billionaire Ron Burkle are also in the mix. Burkle is teaming with former Dodgers great Steve Garvey.