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Mariners Acquire Eduard Bazardo

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The Mariners have acquired right-hander Eduard Bazardo from the Orioles in exchange for minor league righty Logan Rinehart, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports (Twitter link).  Baltimore designated Bazardo for assignment two days ago.

Bazardo has seen limited action in each of the last three Major League seasons, debuting with three innings for the Red Sox in 2021, 16 1/3 more frames (over 12 appearances) in 2022, and then 2 1/3 innings over three games with the Orioles this year.  The Sox also DFA’ed Bazardo after last season and he opted for minor league free agency, landing with the O’s on a minors deal during the offseason.  That minor league contract was selected in early July, with Bazardo only getting a few weeks of big league time before being designated once more.

Turning 27 next month, Bazardo has posted some solid numbers throughout his minor league career, including a 3.05 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, and 7% walk rate over 38 1/3 frames with the Orioles’ Triple-A affiliate this season.  He makes for some interesting bullpen depth for a Mariners team who just dealt Paul Sewald, and could potentially have more openings in the bullpen depending on how other moves may shake out on deadline day.

Rinehart was a 16th-round pick for the Mariners in the 2019 draft, though between the canceled 2020 minor league and a Tommy John surgery, he missed two full seasons of work.  Returning to the mound in 2022, Rinehart has mostly pitched with Seattle’s high-A affiliate and looked good, particularly with a 2.84 ERA, 51.2% grounder rate, and 33.6% strikeout rate over 38 innings.  This is Rinehart’s first season as a full-time reliever, so the 25-year-old’s ultimate future may be in the bullpen.

Twins Inquiring On Teoscar Hernandez, Ty France

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According to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, the Twins are among the teams that have checked in with the Mariners regarding outfielder Teoscar Hernandez and infielder Ty France in their search for a right-handed bat.

Adding some right-handed thump to the lineup is a sensible choice for Minnesota. The Twins’ collective 82 wRC+ against southpaws this season is better than only the Rockies in MLB, so an additional righty bat to go along with Donovan Solano against left-handed pitching could provide a boost to their lineup, particularly with Jose Miranda and Royce Lewis on the injured list. While both Hernandez (93 wRC+) and France (98 wRC+) are having down seasons relative to their career norms, both players are still crushing left-handed pitching this year, with wRC+ figures of 142 and 129, respectively.

As a rental, Hernandez figures to be the cheaper bat in terms of acquisition cost, though he’d join an already-crowded outfield mix in Minnesota that already features Joey Gallo, Michael A. Taylor, Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner, to say nothing of the possibility that Byron Buxton gets healthy enough to return to center field at some point this season. What’s more, Hernandez leads the majors in strikeouts this season, and adding another whiff-prone bat to a lineup that already includes Gallo further muddies the fit between Minnesota and the 30-year-old slugger.

That could leave France as the cleaner fit in Minnesota, where he would provide the Twins with a long term, right-handed complement to Alex Kirilloff at first base that they’ve been searching for since the offseason. While France also has experience at second and third base in his career, given the club’s abundant options at the position (including Solano, Kyle Farmer, Edouard Julien, and Jorge Polanco) it seems likely France’s playing time would primarily come at his natural position of first base.

Phillies, Blue Jays, Giants Have Shown Interest In Teoscar Hernandez

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The Phillies, Giants and Blue Jays are among the teams that touched base with the Mariners regarding Teoscar Hernández, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Morosi indicates upwards of six teams have been involved and that a deal involving Hernández before tomorrow’s deadline looks increasingly probable.

None of that registers as a surprise. Seattle has hinted at potentially dealing short-term veterans for a couple weeks. They began that by sending Paul Sewald to Arizona for three controllable hitters this afternoon. While Sewald had an extra year of arbitration, Hernández is a few months from the open market.

The veteran outfielder is amidst a down season. He carries a .238/.288/.408 batting line through 441 plate appearances into play Monday night. He’s connected on 16 home runs but is striking out a lofty 32% clip, his highest mark since 2019. Hernández got off to a dreadful start to his Seattle tenure. He’d seemed to turn the corner with a .303/.376/.573 showing in June before a massive .198/.248/.287 slump this month.

Despite the middling season, Hernández is a straightforward change-of-scenery target. He hit .283/.333/.519 through his last three years in Toronto. While his offensive numbers have collapsed this year, he’s arguably playing the best defense of his career. Hernández has rated as a below-average right fielder for the bulk of his career but gotten solid marks (+5 Defensive Runs Saved, +1 run above average per Statcast) across 801 1/3 innings there this year.

Each of the teams linked to his market has expressed an interest in adding some right-handed punch. It’d be a bit surprising to see the Blue Jays circle back on Hernández nine months after trading him, but the acquisition cost this summer would be much lower than what they received from Seattle (reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko). Toronto has left-handed hitting Daulton Varsho and Brandon Belt at left field and designated hitter, respectively, though Varsho has been better against same-handed pitching this season.

Philadelphia is openly targeting a right-handed hitting corner outfielder. With Bryce Harper able to play first base, they’re looking to move Kyle Schwarber to DH and add some pop in left field. They’ve also been linked to the Mets’ Tommy Pham and Red Sox’s Adam Duvall.

San Francisco and Seattle are frequent trade partners. They just lined up a deal this evening that sent AJ Pollock and Mark Mathias to the Bay Area. Pollock is having a poor enough season that Hernández could still be of interest. San Francisco will be without Mitch Haniger into September and just placed Mike Yastrzemski on the injured list for the third time this season. They have Austin Slater on hand as a right-handed hitting outfielder but enough short-term uncertainty in left field to make Hernández a potential fit.

Hernández is making $14MM this season. He’s due around $4.67MM through year’s end.

Giants Acquire AJ Pollock, Mark Mathias From Mariners

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The Giants announced they’ve acquired outfielder AJ Pollock, utility player Mark Mathias and cash considerations from the Mariners. Seattle receives a player to be named later or cash in return. San Francisco optioned Mathias to Triple-A, placed Mike Yastrzemski on the 10-day injured list, and transferred right-hander John Brebbia to the 60-day injured list in corresponding moves.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted this afternoon that San Francisco was among the teams looking for right-handed hitting. They add a pair of righty bats in this trade, although neither is necessarily a surefire offensive upgrade.

Mathias, whom the Mariners acquired off waivers from the Pirates earlier this month, departs the organization without ever joining the big league roster. The 28 year old offers experience all around the diamond, though he has primarily played second and third base throughout his career. Initially drafted by Cleveland in the third round of the 2015 draft, Mathias has bounced around the league since making his big league debut with Milwaukee in 2020, with stints in Pittsburgh and Texas over the past calendar year.

In 68 career games at the big league level, Mathias’s .249/.323/.402 slash line is good for a slightly above average wRC+ of 104, though that overall line is primarily carried by an excellent 24-game stretch with the Rangers where he slashed a whopping .277/.365/.554 in 74 trips to the plate. While the journeyman has yet to stick in the big leagues for a significant period of time, that hot stretch in Texas and a career slash line of .289/.383/.458 at the Triple-A level indicate Mathias has the potential to be a useful big league utility piece.

The veteran Pollock, 35, has struggled considerably to this point in the season, slashing a brutal .173/.225/.323 in 138 plate appearances. He’ll provide the Giants with outfield depth as they look to weather injuries to Mitch Haniger and Yastrzemski, the latter of whom is expected to miss a couple weeks with a left hamstring strain.

Pollock had mashed left-handed pitching as recently as a season ago. He provides an outfield rotation option and experienced clubhouse presence alongside the presumptive starting group of Michael Conforto, Luis Matos, and Austin Slater, at least while Yastrzemski gets healthy.

The Mariners continue to move some short-term players following this afternoon’s trade of closer Paul Sewald to Arizona. The player to be named headed back to Seattle figures to be a relatively minor piece. Of greater import is that San Francisco might be taking on some of Pollock’s $7MM salary. The precise amount of the cash being sent from Seattle to the Giants remains unreported. Pollock is owed around $2.33MM through season’s end, at which point he’ll be a free agent.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Giants were finalizing a deal for Pollock and Mathias. Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reported the M’s could receive a player to be named later.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

D-Backs Acquire Paul Sewald

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The Diamondbacks have added a key arm to the bullpen. Arizona and Seattle announced a trade sending Paul Sewald to the Snakes for infielder Josh Rojas, rookie outfielder Dominic Canzone and infield prospect Ryan Bliss.

Sewald was one of the top bullpen arms available. The right-hander has broken out as one of the game’s best relievers since landing in Seattle two and a half years ago. A minor league signee over the 2020-21 offseason, Sewald cracked the Seattle roster by May ’21. He had an excellent run in the Pacific Northwest, pitching to a 2.88 ERA over 171 2/3 innings. He kept his ERA at 3.06 or better in all three seasons.

He has paired that run prevention with very strong swing-and-miss numbers. Sewald punched out just under 35% of opposing hitters with Seattle. That includes a 35.5% strikeout percentage with a 2.93 ERA over 43 innings this year. His fastball only sits in the 92-93 MPH range but has well above-average spin despite a lower arm angle. That movement profile has translated into big whiff tallies. Sewald has gotten swinging strikes on over 14% of his offerings in each of the past three seasons.

Among 176 relievers (minimum 30 innings), Sewald ranks 10th in strikeout rate and 39th in whiffs. His 8.3% walk rate is acceptable and he has dominated hitters from both sides of the plate. Sewald is a fly-ball pitcher who has given up some homers in past seasons, but this year’s 1.05 HR/9 rate is almost exactly league average for a reliever. That well-rounded, consistent production quickly pushed him up a strong bullpen hierarchy. He has worked as the M’s primary closer this season, collecting 21 saves in 24 attempts.

Arizona has searched for that kind of reliability late in games for a while. The Snakes had one of the league’s worst bullpens in 2021-22. It hasn’t been quite so disastrous this season, thanks in part to free agent additions of Andrew Chafin, Miguel Castro and Scott McGough that have all worked out reasonably well. The D-Backs didn’t have anyone of Sewald’s caliber to lock things down, though. Kevin Ginkel and Drey Jameson (the latter of whom is out for a while with an elbow injury) are the only Arizona relievers with a sub-3.00 ERA. Left-handers Chafin and Kyle Nelson are the only pitchers with a strikeout rate above 30%.

Bolstering the pitching depth has been a priority for an Arizona club that has dropped eight of its last 10 to hold a 56-50 record. The D-Backs have fallen out of the projected playoff picture after leading the NL West for a good chunk of the season. They’re only a game out of the final Wild Card spot, though. Sewald will presumably step into the ninth inning for skipper Torey Lovullo. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that Arizona could look for another bullpen addition and is unsurprisingly still searching for rotation help over the next 24 hours.

Seattle’s position in that standings isn’t that dissimilar from Arizona’s. The Mariners are 54-51 and 4.5 games out in the AL Wild Card picture. They’re certainly not buried, though president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto acknowledged two weeks ago the club hasn’t played well enough to be aggressive deadline buyers. They’re reportedly open to offers on the likes of Teoscar Hernández and Ty France and have given some consideration to dealing from their stock of talented young starting pitching.

The primary purpose in all those talks is to subtract from an area of surplus to add controllable offensive help. The bullpen certainly qualifies as a strength. Seattle relievers are fourth in ERA and trailing only Houston in strikeout rate. Sewald was a big part of that success, of course, but the likes of Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash are thriving in high-leverage capacities. Muñoz seems likely to take over the ninth inning with Sewald headed out.

In exchange, Seattle nets the kind of upper level hitting talent they’d been seeking. There’s perhaps no clear “headliner” of the deal, but all three players could factor into the mix in relatively short order. Rojas and Canzone have big league experience, while Bliss had recently worked his way to Triple-A.

Rojas, 29, is the most well-known of the trio. Originally acquired in the Zack Greinke 2019 deadline blockbuster with Houston, Rojas developed into a productive bat-first utility option. The left-handed hitter combined for a .266/.345/.401 batting line in over 1000 plate appearances between 2021-22. He’d never rated especially highly as a defender at any stop but had enough flexibility to move throughout the infield and into the outfield corners.

While not a franchise building block, Rojas looked like a quality role player. However, he has had a difficult 2023 campaign that pushed him into more a depth capacity of late. Rojas has hit only .228/.292/.296 over 216 trips to the plate and remains without a home run on the season. A walk rate that had sat north of 10% is down to 8.3%, while his strikeouts are up a few points to 23.6%. The D-Backs optioned him last month; he spent the bulk of his Triple-A time on the minor league injured list before returning to the majors when Evan Longoria went on the IL over the weekend.

Rojas has primarily played third base in Arizona but has a clearer path to playing time at the keystone in Seattle. Kolten Wong’s struggles have left the M’s with very little out of second base this season. Righty-swinging José Caballero has had a fine debut campaign but is nearly 27 and was never a top prospect. Rojas adds a left-handed complement to Caballero and Dylan Moore and could occasionally see some reps behind Eugenio Suárez at third base.

It’s a buy-low flier for Seattle that also helps to balance the trade financially. Sewald is making $4.1MM this season, his second-to-last year of arbitration. Around $1.37MM remains to be paid out. Rojas is playing on a $2.6MM arbitration salary, his first of four arb years as a Super Two player. He’s still owed around $867K through season’s end. Arizona will take on roughly $500K in salary, thereby preserving a decent amount of financial flexibility for further deadline pickups.

Rojas could be a non-tender candidate after the season, though he’ll get a couple months to try to secure his roster spot at T-Mobile Park. He could be joined immediately by Canzone, a left-handed hitting outfielder nearing his 26th birthday. He has struggled over his first 41 big league plate appearances but has had a monster year in Triple-A. Canzone mashed at a .354/.431/.634 clip with 16 homers through 304 trips to the dish in Reno, making him one of the top hitters even in a favorable offensive environment.

Canzone is limited to the outfield corners but clearly an accomplished minor league hitter. He could factor into the short-term left field mix. Jarred Kelenic is out into September after breaking his foot, while AJ Pollock is on his way to San Francisco. Canzone still has all three minor league option years remaining.

Bliss is not yet on the 40-man roster. A 2021 second-round pick of Auburn, he’s a right-handed hitting second baseman. Bliss struggled in his first full professional season but had a monster .358/.414/.594 showing in Double-A this year. That earned him a spot in the Futures Game and a recent bump to the top minor league level. Baseball America had ranked him the #16 prospect in a strong Arizona farm system, crediting the 5’9″ infielder with a hit-over-power approach and quality range as a defender.

Arizona gets a year and a half of control over the impact late-game arm they’ve been seeking for some time. Seattle is clearly open to reshuffling some veteran talent on the roster but is following through on their stated goal of adding upper level hitting. The M’s aren’t completely throwing in the towel on 2023 while adding more controllable talent.

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic first reported the D-Backs were making progress on a Sewald trade. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the deal as being finalized, while Piecoro first had the return of Rojas, Canzone and Bliss.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mariners Willing To Listen To Trade Offers On Ty France, Teoscar Hernández

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The Mariners are listening to offers on certain players on their roster, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today listing Ty France, Teoscar Hernández and Paul Sewald among those being discussed. Their openness on Sewald was reported last week.

The fact that the Mariners are listening to offers isn’t necessarily a shock, as most front offices these days take the approach that no one on the roster is untouchable and it’s worth hearing out all offers as a way to gauge the market. But the Mariners are in a position where dealing major league players might not be an outlandish thought.

Their 54-51 record is solid, but has them in fourth place in a strong American League West. The teams above them in the division have already been some of the most aggressive this week, with the Rangers recently acquiring Max Scherzer, Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton while the Angels grabbed Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López, C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk. The Astros haven’t been quite so bold but did get Kendall Graveman from the White Sox, in addition to welcoming Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez back from the injured list.

The Mariners aren’t totally buried, currently sitting 5.5 games back in the division and 4.5 in the Wild Card race. FanGraphs still gives them a 16.9% chance of making the playoffs while Baseball Prospectus puts them at 15.2%. But since their position isn’t strong enough to be firm buyers, they might have to at least consider some selling, something that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto recently admitted.

Listening on Hernández is understandable, as he’s an impending free agent. This summer’s market is generally considered to be light on impact bats, which could lead to the M’s receiving notable offers that help them in the future. But they would have to weigh those offers against hurting their chances here in 2023.

Acquired from the Blue Jays in the offseason, Hernández isn’t having his best season. His .238/.288/.408 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 93, or seven percent below league average. But he hit .283/.333/.519 with the Jays from 2020 to 2022 for a 132 wRC+. The M’s were undoubtedly hoping for something more when they gave up Erik Swanson and Adam Macko for Hernández, especially considering his $14MM salary, but perhaps they can still recoup something before the deadline. Despite his diminished production, perhaps some club is willing to bank on his track record, especially with the aforementioned market conditions.

France would be a very different situation, as he can still be retained via arbitration for two more seasons beyond this one. Like Hernández, he’s having a down year relative to his own previous production, having hit .285/.355/.443 from 2020 to 2022 for a 128 wRC+ but just .253/.324/.367 this year for a 100 wRC+. That means that trading him now would be selling low and also punting on a player who could still help in the seasons to come. He’s making $4.1MM this year and will be due raises in the next two years before reaching free agency after 2025.

The Mariners have received a tremendous showing from Mike Ford recently, who was added to their roster at the start of June and has hit 11 home runs since then, serving primarily as the club’s designated hitter. His .238/.302/.540 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 131. He comes with three further seasons of arbitration control, so perhaps the M’s might have some willingness to cash in France and try to put Ford at first base, but that would be a risky path. Ford’s breakout this year has come in just 139 plate appearances while he’s continued to strike out at a 35.3% clip and see 30.6% of his fly balls clear the fence. Since he hit .201/.301/.387 in 468 plate appearances prior to this year, he seems ripe for some regression.

The M’s might have to make some difficult decisions between now and the deadline, given the spot they’re in. They’re not totally out of it but would have to leapfrog teams like the Angels, Yankees and Red Sox before they’re even on the edge of a playoff spot. They could decide to make some moves that help them next year, though it might involve further limiting their chances here in 2023. It might also require them to sell low on players like Hernández and France. But the trade market was already light on impact bats, even before the Cubs pulled Cody Bellinger off the market. It’s understandable why the M’s might want to assess their options and see what a light selloff can do for them, but it would surely be a tough pill to swallow after they made the postseason last year for the first time since 2001.

Mariners Could Deal From Rotation, Open To Offers On Paul Sewald

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There’s been ample speculation surrounding the Mariners’ excellent young rotation since it was reported that the Cardinals had interest in 26-year-old righty Logan Gilbert. And while a trade involving one of Seattle’s talented arms could be a long shot due to the lofty asking price associated with all controllable young starters, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the M’s would at least consider dealing from their stock in order to acquire a young hitter with several years of control remaining.

Seattle’s rotation features veteran ace Luis Castillo and a quartet of touted young righties: Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Gilbert and Kirby have largely established themselves as quality big league arms, while Miller and Woo have impressed during their rookie efforts.

Gilbert, sporting a 3.88 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate in 20 starts, is controllable for four more years beyond the current season. Kirby (3.49 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate, 2.4% walk rate) has an additional five seasons of control remaining. Miller (3.96 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, 5.1% walk rate in 75 innings) and Woo (4.91 ERA but a 28.9% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate in 44 innings) would each come with six seasons of control beyond the current year. Both Miller and Woo were ranked among the sport’s top 100 prospects at the time of their respective promotions.

The price to acquire any of those arms would surely be steep; not only would the Mariners be seeking a controllable bat to plug into the lineup — they’d likely be seeking a high-end, all-around contributor. Reds fans have regularly asked in MLBTR chats about the possibility of shipping Jonathan India to the Mariners for one of those starters, for instance, but league-average offense at second base and three-plus years of control likely isn’t enough to sway Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to part with anywhere from four to six seasons of control over a big league starter. (Notably, Rosenthal suggests a trade of India is far likelier in the offseason than in the next few days.) The same could well apply to Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson — another roughly league-average hitter with three-plus seasons of club control remaining.

Should the Mariners find an offer to their liking on any of their talented young arms, Rosenthal suggests they could call up Emerson Hancock from Double-A. The former sixth overall pick has a 4.26 ERA with solid but not eye-popping strikeout and walk numbers over 19 starts there. Rosenthal also floats the possibility of Seattle acquiring an impending free agent starter — perhaps in a Teoscar Hernandez swap with another win-now club — to step into a rotation spot vacated by a trade of a controllable arm. Marco Gonzales is currently on the injured list but could return later in the season; perhaps Robbie Ray will make it back from Tommy John surgery at some point next year.

While a deal involving one of Seattle’s controllable starters would be tough to pull off, trades of shorter-term veterans could be easier to line up. Reliever Paul Sewald is surely of interest to a number of clubs, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported tonight (on Twitter) that Seattle is signaling an openness to moving him.

Sewald has been one of the best relievers in the sport since breaking out with Seattle in 2021. He owns a 2.90 ERA in 170 2/3 innings in an M’s uniform. The right-hander has been effective in all three seasons, including an even 3.00 ERA over 42 frames this year. He’s striking out just under 36% of opponents against a modest 7.9% walk rate.

The 33-year-old righty is playing this season on a $4.1MM arbitration salary. He’s eligible for that process once more before hitting free agency during the 2024-25 offseason. The asking price on Sewald obviously wouldn’t be as extreme as those on the M’s starters, but Seattle would surely aim high in those talks as well.

Mariners Acquire Trent Thornton From Blue Jays

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2:05pm: The Mariners have now announced the trade, with Gonzales indeed transferred to the 60-day IL as the corresponding move. The lefty has been on the IL since late May due to a left forearm strain and has yet to begin a rehab assignment. He’ll be eligible to return from the IL as soon as this weekend but that doesn’t seem to be a possibility.

2:00pm: The Mariners are acquiring right-hander Trent Thornton from the Blue Jays, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Thornton was designated for assignment last week when the Jays acquired Génesis Cabrera. The Mariners are sending infielder Mason McCoy to the Jays in exchange. The M’s will need to open a 40-man roster spot for Thornton, though they can do that fairly easily by transferring Marco Gonzales to the 60-day injured list.

Thornton, now 29, came over to the Blue Jays in a November 2018 trade that sent utility player Aledmys Díaz to the Astros. The righty jumped into Toronto’s rotation the next year and tossed 154 1/3 innings with a 4.84 earned run average. He struck out 22% of batters faced while walking 9% of them.

But in 2020, he was limited to just three starts by elbow inflammation and has been transitioned into a relief role since then. He served as a frequently-optioned depth piece for the Jays in the past few seasons, logging 100 1/3 frames in the big leagues since the start of 2021 with a 4.31 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate. He’s also been able to throw 66 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level with a 2.98 ERA, striking out 21.8% of opponents while walking 10.9%.

Despite those decent numbers, Thornton was pushed down Toronto’s depth chart by other acquisitions and has only been able to make four big league appearances this year. He’s also in his final option year, meaning he’ll be out of options next year and will therefore have diminished roster flexibility. But the Mariners will still have the ability to option him for the rest of the year, allowing him to provide them with a bit of extra depth for their pitching staff. Daniel Kramer of MLB.com relays that Thornton will initially report to Triple-A Tacoma.

Heading the other way is McCoy, 28, who was originally drafted by the Orioles but was traded to the Mariners in a cash deal in April of 2022. Baseball America ranked him the 29th best prospect in Baltimore’s system in 2020, praising his glove and bat-to-ball skills but expressing some concern about a lack of future power.

Since that trade, he’s been playing for Triple-A Tacoma in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He hit 20 home runs last year but struck out in 25.8% of his plate appearances. His .256/.332/.473 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 96 in that offensively-charged environment. This year, he’s added another 11 homers but struck out at a 29.5% clip. His .234/.330/.407 line this year translates to a 77 wRC+.

Despite the subpar offense, he should have a decent floor due to his other qualities. He stole 22 bases last year and has swiped another 20 already here in 2023. He also has defensive versatility, having played the three infield positions to the left of first base as well as some brief appearances in the outfield. He will be eligible for minor league free agency at the end of this season if not added to Toronto’s 40-man roster.

Poll: Should The Mariners Trade Teoscar Hernández?

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The Mariners are one of many teams in an awkward spot right now. After breaking their postseason drought last year, they had hoped for another competitive season in 2023, but it hasn’t quite lived up to expectations so far. They have played 100 games and are currently 50-50, putting them fourth in the American League West, 8.5 games back of the Rangers while also trailing the Astros and Angels. They are 5.5 games back of the Blue Jays for the final American League Wild Card spot, with the Red Sox, Yankees and Angels in between.

That doesn’t necessarily mean all hope is lost, as those are surmountable obstacles (particularly the Wild Card chase). But their chances aren’t great at the moment, with the playoff odds at FanGraphs currently giving them an 11.6% chance of getting in while Baseball Prospectus has them at just 8.2%.

President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto discussed the club’s tough position last week, admitting that the Mariners have “not really separated ourselves in a meaningful way to be aggressive on the buying end” and might have to decide whether it is “better to make a push for the ’23 season or to better situate ourselves for ’24.” He went on to say they probably wouldn’t make any big splash like last year’s Luis Castillo acquisition and that selling is on the table because they always have “one foot in the camp of buyer and one foot in the camp of seller.”

There won’t be any need for the M’s to completely tear their roster down to the studs. The 2024 team will still feature a strong pitching staff, as their collective 3.80 earned run average is one of the five best in the majors and none of their hurlers are slated to reach free agency this winter. On the position player side, they will still be able to count on a core that consists of Julio Rodríguez, Eugenio Suárez, Cal Raleigh, Ty France and J.P. Crawford. They would have some offseason work to do, but there are enough ingredients there for them to see a path towards better results next year.

But as Dipoto mentioned, they may need to think about doing some selling, even if it’s not a total rebuild. The club has some impending free agents, but most of them won’t have much appeal. AJ Pollock is hitting just .173/.225/.323 and just landed on the injured list, while Kolten Wong’s offense is even worse at .162/.244/.229. Tom Murphy is hitting well this year but in a part-time backup role, and midseason trades of catchers can be tricky given the challenges of learning a new pitching staff.

They have one other impending free agent in Teoscar Hernández, which presents a difficult case for the club. He was just acquired from the Blue Jays in the offseason, with the M’s sending Erik Swanson and Adam Macko to Toronto for Hernández’s final arbitration season. His 2023 performance isn’t quite as rough as Pollock’s or Wong’s, but it’s been a disappointment nonetheless. Through the end of May, he was hitting .230/.268/.396 for a wRC+ of 85. He took off in June, slashing .303/.376/.573 for a 162 wRC+, but he’s crashed back to earth in July with a line of .203/.259/.316.

Overall, Hernández has a season-long batting line of .242/.293/.421. That amounts to a wRC+ of 99, indicating he’s been just a hair below league average. But the Mariners were surely hoping for something better than just average, especially because Hernández slashed .283/.333/.519 with the Jays from 2020 to 2022 for a 132 wRC+.

Defensive metrics have never like Hernández much, but are being kinder in 2023. He has -18 Defensive Runs Saved in his career but +7 this year. Outs Above Average has him at +2 in 2023 but -22 overall. His Ultimate Zone Rating is -18.3 for his career but 3.7 this year. Defensive metrics tend to be fickle from year to year, so it’s more likely this is a blip than that he’s suddenly turned himself into an above-average defender in his age-30 season. But he definitely has a bit of speed, having swiped 40 bags in his career and five this year.

If Hernández were playing up to his previous form, he would be a lock to both receive and reject a qualifying offer. In that case, the Mariners could have simply held onto him and taken their shot at contention, at least knowing that they could recoup a draft pick if he were to sign somewhere else. Now it’s less clear, since he’s performing closer to an average major leaguer. He might be tempted to take a QO and try to re-enter free agency after a stronger platform in 2024.

Spending roughly $20MM, which is where the QO will likely end up, on a player like Hernández wouldn’t necessarily be a disaster for the Mariners. Pollock and Wong departing will take $17MM off the books, and Hernández himself is making $14MM this year. But they will also see Castillo’s salary jump from $10MM this year (plus a $7MM signing bonus) to $22.75MM next year. Rodríguez will see his salary climb from $4MM to $10MM. Marco Gonzales, Evan White, Dylan Moore and Andrés Muñoz will also get raises in their contracts, and arbitration raises will be due to players like France and Paul Sewald.

Like just about every club, the Mariners will be hoping to keep their options open for Shohei Ohtani this winter, not to mention all the other potential free agents. Perhaps the prospect of putting close to $20MM in front of Hernández on day one of the offseason isn’t as attractive as it once seemed a few months ago.

But despite his middling season, he might still have significant trade appeal. The lists of upcoming free agents and potential trade candidates are both heavy on pitching, with few impact bats thought to be available. Perhaps some clubs around the league believe in Hernández enough to bet on a bounceback, especially with the dearth of other available options. His walk rate and hard hit rate are both down this year, but his rate of fly balls turning into home runs is also a big drop, sitting at 16.2% this year compared to 23.2% in the previous three seasons. Maybe moving away from the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park would help him get back on track.

Taking all those factors into consideration, it’s likely a tricky decision for Dipoto and his team. If they decide that 2023 isn’t their year, then trading him is probably the best thing to do since he’s an impending free agent and can’t help you next year. If he were to accept a qualifying offer, they’d essentially be back to square one but with a larger financial commitment for 2024. If there’s a compelling offer on the table now, perhaps it’s better to just take that and start focusing on next year’s club.

On the other hand, they are already working with an uninspiring offense. The Mariners’ collective batting line of .231/.311/.391 amounts to a wRC+ of 100, or exactly average. The corner outfield spots are a particular issue, given the struggles of both Pollock and Jarred Kelenic. The latter of those two cooled off after a hot start and recently put himself out of action for the next four to six weeks by kicking a water cooler and breaking a bone in his foot.

Subtracting Hernández from the corner outfield mix would only make matters worse, and the Mariners would then be looking to replace him in right field while facing the same weak market as every other club in the league. Although the club made the postseason last year, that’s still just one playoff appearance since 2001. If they were to hold Hernández and he gets hot for the final months of the season, he could help them compete and perhaps even get enough juice to reject a qualifying offer and net the club an extra draft pick.

Trading Hernández also comes with the risk of intangible results, in a negative way. Teams have often tried to balance buying and selling and been surprised by the effect it had on the clubhouse. The Brewers trading Josh Hader last year was one such example, but the same thing happened to the Mariners the year before. They traded closer Kendall Graveman and reliever Rafael Montero to the Astros for infielder Abraham Toro and reliever Joe Smith. They later backfilled their closer spot by acquiring Diego Castillo, hoping that the Castillo/Toro combination would be better than Graveman himself. But it didn’t work out and the club missed the playoffs as the Graveman trade had a negative impact on the club’s spirits, something Dipoto addressed in the link above.

Perhaps trading Hernández would hurt the club both on the field and in the dugout. The Mariners likely wouldn’t care so much about that if they were well out of contention and firmly in the seller camp. But if they are trying to strike a balance between buying and selling, the downside of the trade is higher than the upside, though that would surely depend on the offers. The Hader trade certainly hurt the Brewers last year but they were later able to trade one of the pieces in that deal, Esteury Ruiz, for catcher William Contreras. He’s having an excellent season and seems to be a long-term piece for Milwaukee, who are in first place in the National League Central.

We’ll open this one up for debate among MLBTR readers. Should the Mariners risk punting their season by sending Hernández elsewhere and taking whatever pieces they can get to help them in future seasons? Or, should they hold and hope for a late surge to get back in the race and cement his status as a QO recipient? Have your say in the poll below!

(Link to poll for app users)

Latest On Mariners' Outfield Situation

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The Mariners placed outfielder AJ Pollock on the 10-day IL earlier today, with outfielder Taylor Trammell taking his place on the active roster. While Pollock has struggled to a wRC+ of just 51 in 138 plate appearances with Seattle this season, Pollock’s injury further exacerbates an outfield situation that has quickly become a problem for the club. Julio Rodriguez and Teoscar Hernandez are both locked into starting spots in center and right field, respectively, but the absences of Pollock and Jarred Kelenic leave the club scrambling for options to fill out the rest of the club’s outfield mix. First baseman Mike Ford has taken over DH duties on a nearly full-time basis over the past month, while left field is set to be filled by a mix of depth options like Trammell, Dylan Moore, and Cade Marlowe.

To make matters worse for the Mariners, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times relays that, according to manager Scott Servais, Kelenic isn’t expected back until early September. He’ll spend the next 4-6 weeks in a walking boot after kicking a water cooler out of frustration following a ninth-inning strikeout. The incident left Kelenic with a fractured left foot. With so few options available to cover for Kelenic in left field, the Mariners seem poised to look into adding an outfielder ahead of the trade deadline on August 1. The club has previously been connected to Mark Canha of the Mets, though Tommy Pham, Cody Bellinger, and Lane Thomas are other outfielders who could potentially move prior to the deadline.

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