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Bedard A Non-Tender Candidate?

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THURSDAY: Bedard speaks!  He pitched hurt for most of the season, apparently.  Bedard said today he has a labrum tear and a cyst in his shoulder.

WEDNESDAY: Erik Bedard hasn’t pitched since July, and he’s elected to have exploratory surgery on his pitching shoulder.  GM Lee Pelekoudas expects Bedard to be able to pitch next year, but admits it’s an unknown until Dr. Yocum gets in there and pokes around.  John Hickey says trading Bedard this winter is no longer an option, and the situation may increase the chance of a Jarrod Washburn trade.  The Mariners would like to clear spots in the rotation for two young pitchers.

ESPN’s Buster Olney tosses out an interesting idea: he thinks the Mariners should consider non-tendering Bedard.  Bedard is arbitration-eligible, and should receive a raise on his current $7MM salary.  If the Mariners were to truly treat the players dealt for Bedard as a sunk cost, they’d only ask themselves whether he is worth a one-year, $9-10MM contract.  Depending on the results of the September 26th surgery, cutting Bedard might be the right move.  The Mariners’ new GM probably will not have ties to the Bill Bavasi acquisition.

Odds and Ends: Lee, Rogers, Beltre, Darvish

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Today’s random linkage…

  • The Indians signed 21 year-old pitcher Chen-Chang Lee out of Taiwan.  Anthony Castrovince has the scouting report.  East Windup Chronicle says the bonus is in the $350-400K range.
  • Kenny Rogers suggested Jim Leyland remove him from the rotation.  Rogers still thinks he can pitch effectively next year at 44, however.
  • Geoff Baker notes an extra benefit to delaying Adrian Beltre’s surgery – the playing time could nudge him toward Type A status when he reaches free agency after the ’09 season.
  • Ken Davidoff of Newsday says Yu Darvish will probably not be posted this winter but could be after the ’09 season.  Davidoff says the Giants, Orioles, and D’Backs have been heavily scouting Japan this year.
  • The Cubs are looking at contract extensions for Lou Piniella and Jim Hendry, according to Gordon Wittenmeyer.

Odds and Ends: Alvarez, Williams, Tazawa

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Today’s links…

  • Chat today, 2pm CST.
  • Great stuff on the Pedro Alvarez situation from Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein.  Goldstein’s source says the union will claim that the Pirates and MLB engaged in a premeditated conspiracy, perhaps designed to take Scott Boras out of the picture by negotiating past midnight.  The article is subscription-only.  At $40 a year, BP is well worth it.
  • It seems that Type B status is slipping away for Tigers reliever Kyle Farnsworth.  Ivan Rodriguez recently fell from A to B, but the Yankees may choose not to offer him arbitration.
  • Baseball America’s Jim Callis says Mariners top draft pick Joshua Fields wants $2MM, while the team is holding firm at $1.5MM.  Fields is advised by Scott Boras.
  • Interesting note from last week…Bernie Williams is training and does not consider himself retired.
  • Patrick Newman discusses the Junichi Tazawa situation in-depth.  He says NPB’s commissioner plans to meet with Bud Selig.  One reason MLB looks extra-appealing to Tazawa: NPB limits draft pick bonuses to $1MM.
  • Geoff Baker discusses Jose Guillen.

Perrotto’s Latest: Royals, Ibanez, Rauch, Gregg

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It’s Sunday, which means that John Perrotto has his Every Given Sunday column up over at Baseball Prospectus. Here’s the highlights…

  • Royals GM Dayton Moore will likely make a big splash in the free agent market once again. Two years ago, he signed Gil Meche to a five-year, $55MM deal. Last year, he signed Jose Guillen to a three-year, $36MM contract. This year, his big target appears to be Rafael Furcal, which would allow the Royals to move Mike Aviles to second base. Moore is also believed to be willing to trade anyone on the team with the exceptions of Meche, Zack Greinke, and Joakim Soria.
  • Raul Ibanez isn’t likely to be back with the Mariners as a free agent next season. Perrotto feels that Ibanez is a good bet to become the Rays’ designated hitter for 2009.
  • The Diamondbacks originally wanted to use Jon Rauch as their closer for 2009 and let Brandon Lyon leave through free agency. Rauch’s recent string of rough outings has them reconsidering that train of thought.
  • The Marlins will try to trade Kevin Gregg this offseason, and will likely non-tender him if they don’t find match.
  • The Braves are looking to add two starters for the 2009 campaign. General manager Frank Wren has traveled overseas to scout Japanese pitchers Koji Uehara and Kenshin Kawakami already this year.
  • The Nationals have a crowded situation at first base with both Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young under contract, but they’ll still be looking to improve at the position in the offseason.

Odds and Ends: Ellis, Patterson, Sweeney

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Rounding up today’s links…

Odds And Ends: Millar, Lowe, Jays, Ibanez, Garciaparra, Posey

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A few notes from the MLBiverse…

  • Kevin Millar wants to return to the Orioles in ’09. Of course, many feel the O’s will make a run at Mark Teixeira this off-season which would decrease Millar’s chances of re-signing, unless both sides feel he can be a full-time DH. Millar made $2.75MM this season.
  • Detroit Tiger Thoughts has made an adjustment to the projected Elias ranking for Derek Lowe. He will indeed be a Type A free agent this off-season.
  • The original article is missing from the Toronto Sun, but Sportsnet has the piece in which Paul Godfrey says the Jays are unlikely to include opt-out clauses in any future contracts based on the current situation with AJ Burnett. Some believe Burnett will exercise his opt-out clause and declare himself a free agent this winter.
  • Jim Street says the value of Raul Ibanez goes beyond stats…However, it remains to be seen if his value to Seattle will go beyond the two draft picks they would receive for letting him walk this off-season.
  • Michael Schwartz says another free agent-to-be, Nomar Garciaparra, has proven his worth to the Dodgers in his new role coming off the bench.
  • Even though Brian Sabean went to see Buster Posey play in person, he ruled out any chance of Posey making his major league debut this season.

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com and can be reached here.

Week In Review: 8/31 – 9/6

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Sunday afternoon means it’s time to look back at the week and recap the major stories here on MLBTR. Let’s take a look:

  • Arizona made a move to help replace Orlando Hudson when they acquired David Eckstein from Toronto for minor league pitcher Chad Beck. Second major move we saw from the D’Backs in August, and it seems like a fair price to add some stability to the middle of their infield for the remainder of the season.
  • Brief update on the Pedro Alvarez drama. The Pirates will not re-negotiate his contract even if that option is somehow allowed.
  • Tim began a couple of new series this week, one being the Offseason Outlook series, which will take a look at potential signings and moves for each team this offseason. So far, the Giants, Mariners, Padres, and Orioles have been covered.
  • Tim also broke down some of the free agent market, taking a look at free agent starters sorted by strikeout rate, and position players sorted by on-base percentage.
  • Curious to see if your team’s pitchers will be Type-A or B free agents? Here’s a look at the Elias rankings for both American League and National League free agent starters.
  • Speaking of starting pitchers, Randy Wolf (Type B) has decided that his desire to pitch closer to home wasn’t as important as he originally thought. He’ll be open to all options this offseason. Wolf has pitched well since being acquired by Houston, despite moving to a more hitter-friendly park.
  • Can’t say I’m surprised, but if you any Seattle fans were hoping for a big-name free agent this offseason, you’ll have to wait a bit longer.

Mariners President: No Big Signings

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The Seattle Mariners need to go better than 8-15 the rest of the way to avoid being the first 100-loss club to spend over $100 million on payroll. Given this grave disappointment of a season, one might think that the team will go out and add parts to help contend in ’09 and beyond.

Not so fast. Geoff Baker caught up with team president Chuck Armstrong, who said, paraphrased, read my lips: no big name free agents. So if you’re in Seattle and were hoping for a savior in the form of CC Sabathia or Mark Teixeira — or even in the form of Griffey Jr. — you might find yourself a little disappointed this winter. The team already tried that route, and it didn’t pan out so well. So they’re trying a different approach.

The team will hire a new GM soon, and Armstrong wants to see a "comprehensive plan" out of each candidate. This invovles a rigorous rebuilding process that will enable the team to sustain itself without having to pick from high-ticket free agents. Of course, the Ms still have a shot in 2009. As Baker points out, there’s plenty of talent on the roster. If both Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard pitch how they’re capable, if Jeff Clement and Brandon Morrow realize their potential, if Carlos Silva and Jarrod Washburn can be league-avearge, then yeah, maybe they’ve got a shot. But that’s a whole lot of ifs.

It seems as if any new GM in Seattle will have a number of tough decisions to make. Is this an omen of a full-out rebuild?

Stark’s Latest: Cain, Beltre, Burrell, Wigginton

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Let’s take a look at the latest column from ESPN’s Jayson Stark.

  • Stark wonders why no one has questioned MLB’s apparent trade deadline extension for the Manny Ramirez deal.
  • Currently the idea of the Brewers swapping Prince Fielder for Matt Cain is just fun speculation.  However, it is true the Brewers will listen on Fielder (he is about to get expensive).  The Giants are known to like the big first baseman.  The hangup is Brian Sabean’s reported unwillingness to trade Tim Lincecum or Cain.
  • The Giants also have their eye on Adrian Beltre.  The Mariners want starting pitching, but one year of Beltre is not equal to four of Jonathan Sanchez.
  • The Phillies still don’t want to go past two guaranteed years for Pat Burrell.  Stark points out another complication – Burrell would gain 10-and-5 rights early in a Phillies contract.  Any NL team inking Burrell for four years is a risky proposition given his defense.  If Burrell leaves the Phillies, Stark doesn’t expect the team to sign a major free agent as his replacement.
  • The Indians deserve props for acquiring Anthony Reyes.  Let’s not overdo it though – it’s only been five starts, and his strikeout rate is just 4.0 per nine in Cleveland.
  • The Indians talked to multiple teams about Cliff Lee last winter.  Interestingly, they thought the hardest about swapping him for Carlos Quentin.
  • The Astros were quite willing to trade Ty Wigginton, prior to his massive August.

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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Let’s take a look at the ’09 Mariners.  They’ll have their new GM in place in time for the free agency period.

C – Kenji Johjima – $8MM
C – Jamie Burke – $435K
1B – Bryan LaHair – $400K
2B – Jose Lopez – $1.6MM
SS – Yuniesky Betancourt – $2MM
3B – Adrian Beltre – $12MM
IF – Tug Hulett – $400K
IF –
LF –
CF – Wladimir Balentien – $400K
RF – Ichiro Suzuki – $17MM
OF – Jeremy Reed – $400K+
DH – Jeff Clement – $400K

SP – Felix Hernandez – $540K+
SP – Erik Bedard – $7MM+
SP – Jarrod Washburn – $10.35MM
SP – Carlos Silva – $11MM
SP – Brandon Morrow – $400K

RP – J.J. Putz – $5MM
RP – Sean Green – $405K
RP – Mark Lowe – $400K
RP – Roy Corcoran – $400K
RP – Miguel Batista – $9MM
RP – R.A. Dickey – $400K
RP – Ryan Rowland-Smith – $400K

The Mariners have about $88MM committed, plus arbitration raises for Reed, Hernandez, and Bedard.  Not 100% sure on Reed’s eligibility.  We’ll estimate an additional $7MM in arb raises, bringing commitments to around $95MM.  The Mariners entered the season with a $117.6MM payroll.  That might mean $20MM+ to spend if they plan on being competitive in ’09.

The Mariners are 12th in OBP and 11th in SLG.  They’re 12th in starters’ ERA and 9th in reliever ERA.

This could be a tough club to rebuild, with a three-year window for Felix and several hard-to-move contracts.  Will a new GM step in and try to assemble a worst-to-first team for ’09?

I’m not sure why, but Johjima became a problem this year.  The best baseball move would be to eat most of the $24MM he has coming and try Clement and Burke behind the plate.  Not much can be done with the low-OBP middle infield; at least Lopez has been decent.  It may be difficult to upgrade on Beltre, so they should keep him unless a total rebuild is in order.

In the outfield, it’d make sense to flip Ichiro and Balentien.  Offensively the Ms are looking to fill the easiest positions – first base, left field, and DH.  They could take draft picks for Ibanez and consider high-OBP free agents like Jason Giambi, Milton Bradley, Manny Ramirez, Brian Giles, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, and Bobby Abreu.  Ideally, the Ms would dig up a high-OBP minor league veteran in the Dan Johnson/Brian Myrow/Josh Whitesell mold.

If you squint, you can envision a huge contract year from Bedard, more progress from Felix, and a breakout for Morrow.  The last two starting jobs could be determined on merit rather than salary, and a few bargain free agent pitchers could be signed as well.

Realistically the Mariners are not built to contend next year.  With Beltre, Washburn, Batista, and Bedard off the books after the ’09 season, it’d be logical to wait until then to remake the team (or trade these veterans for young players).  But the Mariners do have front-rotation pitching talent.  It would be interesting to see if a shrewd GM could wring a wild card out of it.

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