Latest On Juan Soto’s Market
Ever since it emerged that the Nationals are willing to entertain trade offers on Juan Soto, the whole baseball world has been obsessed with trying to figure out where he could go and what a fair trade would even look like. That likely won’t change, with Soto rumors sure to continue flying every day until the August 2 deadline, unless a trade is completed sooner.
MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at the situation, outlining how Soto is arguably the most attractive trade chip in recent memory or perhaps ever. Given his talent, youth and remaining years of control, just about every team is going to be calling the Nats and getting a feel for what kind of deal they’re looking to make.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the discussions have begun and, unsurprisingly, Soto is drawing widespread interest. He lists the Mariners, Padres, Giants, Dodgers, Cardinals, Yankees and Mets as seven teams that have already opened up the lines of communication with Washington.
None of those are particularly surprising, with all seven of them having been listed by Adams as being among the best fits. There is a potential complicating factor in the talks, as Jim Bowden of The Athletic reports that the Nationals want to combine Soto with Patrick Corbin in trades, in order to get Corbin’s contract off their books. As an additional detail, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post looks at the pros and cons of including Corbin in the deal, adding that Corbin has a partial no-trade clause. Despite that, Dougherty adds that this won’t prevent a deal from coming together, implying that either Corbin’s clause is minimal enough to not include the primary suitors, or perhaps that he would be willing to waive the clause and move to a new club with Soto.
While the Nationals are surely open to moving Corbin and getting out from under his contract, it’s unclear how important that is to them. Signed to a six-year, $140MM contract prior to 2019, the first season was a resounding success. Corbin threw 202 innings with a 3.25 ERA, then added another 23 1/3 frames in the postseason as the Nats won the first World Series title in the history of the franchise. It’s been essentially all downhill since then, however, with Corbin’s strikeouts disappearing and ERA escalating. After strikeout rates of 30.8% in 2018 and 28.5% in 2019, he’s been hovering around 20% in the three subsequent seasons. His ERA shot up to 4.66 in 2020, then 5.82 last year and 5.87 this year.
As for Corbin’s contract, it was heavily backloaded. His salary this year is $23.42MM, leaving approximately $8MM to be paid out from the deadline onwards. Then he’ll make $24.42MM next year and a big jump to $35.42 in 2024. That’s the last year of the deal, though there’s also $10MM in deferred money to be paid out from November of 2024 to January of 2026.
The combination of Corbin’s poor performance and hefty salary give him negative trade value. As such, any Corbin-Soto combo trade will lead to the Nationals recouping a lesser prospect package than a trade involving Soto alone. On the surface, it seems strange that the Nats would be strongly motivated towards such a scenario. Trading Soto means giving up on being competitive through 2024 anyhow, so getting Corbin’s contract off the books for that season shouldn’t be a high priority. With Soto out of the picture, the only other meaningful salary they will be paying in 2024 and beyond is going to Stephen Strasburg, who’s getting $35MM per year through 2026. Spending $70MM to Strasburg and Corbin in 2024 surely isn’t ideal, but the rest of the roster will likely be filled out with pre-arb players or those who have just qualified and earned minimal raises. The club ran a payroll of $183MM as recently as last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and has already stripped it down to $135MM this year.
But if the Nats are indeed motivated to get that money off the ledger ahead of schedule, it will change the calculus of which teams make the most sense as trading partners. Teams on the receiving end will be taking on two meaningful salaries, as Soto is well-paid himself. He’s earning $17.1MM this year and will be due arbitration raises in the next two campaigns, possibly getting near the $25MM range next year and above $30MM for 2024, as long as he stays healthy. Even for the rest of this campaign, Soto will have about $6MM left to be paid out at the time of the deadline. Combined with the approximately $8MM owed to Corbin, that will add $14MM to this year’s payroll for any team acquiring both.
As Steve Adams highlighted in the piece linked above, all seven teams that Nightengale listed have marquee young players that could headline a return in a Soto deal. The prospect of taking Corbin in return might be more exciting to some than others, however. The Padres crossed the luxury tax line last year and have been right up against it this year, seemingly loath to cross it for a second straight season and therefore facing escalating penalties. They’ve been rumored to be trying to trade away one of their pitchers in order to create payroll space for additions elsewhere. Suddenly acquiring another expensive starter, and one who isn’t pitching well, would fly in the face of those plans. Although, perhaps Soto’s availability is such a unique situation that it makes them rethink everything.
The Cardinals had an Opening Day payroll of $155MM, per Cot’s, which is a bit shy of their $164MM record. Adding $14MM to get into record territory is likely an acceptable outcome this year, but would become complicated in the years to come. Adam Wainwright‘s $17.5MM is the biggest contract coming off the books at the end of the year, but there would likely be mutual interest in another deal, based on precedent. He’s having another excellent season and would likely command a similar contract. Yadier Molina‘s $10MM is coming off the books, though Soto and Corbin would add about $50MM onto it, and the Cards would still have to figure out a solution behind the plate.
The Mets already have a massive payroll but don’t seem to have any limitations in that regard. Owner Steve Cohen has expressed a willingness to spend beyond the fourth CBT barrier, which the club is already right on top of. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource calculates their CBT number as $290.1MM, a smidge over the $290MM barrier. Regardless of the financial picture, however, there’s the question of whether the Nats have any interest in trading Soto within the division. Andy Martino of SNY reports that Soto landing with the Mets is extremely unlikely, with the Nats not keen on seeing Soto return to Washington so frequently with a new uniform.
The Giants and Mariners might be in a better position than these other teams to take on meaningful salary in order to get Soto. The Giants had a payroll of $155MM on Opening Day, per Cot’s, but were up at $201MM a few years ago. They also have some decent money coming off the books this winter. Carlos Rodon is making $21.5MM and can opt out if he reaches 110 innings pitched. Given that he’s currently at 105 and having another excellent season, he’s a virtual lock to trigger that opt-out. Brandon Belt accepted the $18.4MM qualifying offer and will return to the open market in a few months. Brandon Crawford is making $16MM this year and next, but a free agent after that. The only guaranteed contract they have on the books for 2024 is the $12MM owed to Anthony DeSclafani. The Mariners opened the year at $104MM, per Cot’s, but have been in the $150-160 range in recent years.
As for the Yankees and Dodgers, they’re both running franchise-high payrolls but might still like the idea of Corbin’s contract being involved. Recent reporting has suggested both clubs are leery of decimating their farm systems in order to acquire Soto, despite his talents. Taking on Corbin and reducing the prospect hit should appeal to both clubs.
Of course, all this still seems to be exploratory on the part of the Nationals. Getting rid of Corbin’s money surely has appeal, but they will also have to weigh that against the offers they get that don’t involve Corbin. If one teams offers, say, six good prospects but doesn’t want Corbin, would the Nats really take a less package just to get Corbin out the door? There’s at least some precedent, given that the Red Sox included David Price in the Mookie Betts deal. However, the situations are not entirely analogous, as the Red Sox had gone over the luxury tax in the two previous seasons and were primarily interested in tearing down their roster for the cost savings. For the Nats, they are already operating with a budget well below previous seasons and should theoretically be more concerned with maximizing their prospect return in any Soto deal.
Mariners Release Daniel Ponce de Leon
The Mariners have released right-hander Daniel Ponce de Leon, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The 30-year-old will return to the open market and search for his next opportunity.
Ponce de Leon was drafted by the Cardinals in 2014 and stayed with the organization until being released in September of 2021. He had a nice MLB debut but saw his ERA climb as time went on. He put up a 2.73 ERA in 2018, followed by marks of 3.70, 4.96 and 6.21 in the three subsequent campaigns.
Although he generally got strikeouts at above-average rates, his walks kept mounting and made it harder for him to succeed. Last year, the strikeouts vanished, as his rate dropped from 31.5% in 2020 to 15.2% in 2021, helping his ERA spike. On the whole, he has 147 2/3 innings of MLB experience with a 4.33 ERA, 37% ground ball rate, 23.9% strikeout rate and 12.7% walk rate.
This year, he signed a minor league deal with the Angels in January but was released and joined the Mariners on another minors deal in April. Even during his down years with the Cardinals, he still generally pitched well in Triple-A, though even that has eluded him this season. Through 16 starts with the Tacoma Rainiers, he’s logged 71 1/3 innings with a 7.95 ERA. His 24.1% strikeout rate is a bit above average, but his 12.7% walk rate and 27% ground ball rate are both subpar. Based on those unfortunate results, the Mariners have cut him loose and sent him back into free agency.
Steven Souza Jr. Announces Retirement
Outfielder Steven Souza Jr. took to Twitter today to announce his retirement from baseball after almost a decade in the big leagues.
“It’s been an incredible journey that I dreamed as a kid I would be able to go on,” wrote Souza, before going on to give a heartfelt thanks to the many people whose lives touched his along the way.
Souza, 33, was a third-round pick of the Nationals out of Cascade High School in 2007 and made his big league debut with the Nats in 2014. After getting into 21 games for Washington down the stretch, Souza went to the Rays in December 2014 as part of a convoluted three-team trade that saw Wil Myers go from Tampa to San Diego and Trea Turner go from the Padres to the Nats.
Souza would spent the next three seasons with the Rays, which will no doubt go down as the best stretch of his career. From 2015 to 2017, he played 378 games, hitting 63 home runs, 53 doubles, four triples, stealing 35 bases and hitting .238/.327/.426.
Incredibly, Souza was part of yet another three-team trade prior to the 2018 season. In this deal, Souza went to the Diamondbacks while Brandon Drury went to the Yankees, among other pieces changing hands. Unfortunately, Souza’s trip to the desert would be a disappointing one, with injuries preventing him from sustaining the production he showed in Tampa. He was limited to 72 games in 2018 due to pectoral issues and hit just .220/.309/.369 when on the field. In March of 2019, Souza sustained a far worse injury, slipping on home plate during a Spring Training game. The club would later announce that Souza tore or damaged multiple ligaments in his knee, which would require season-ending surgery.
After missing the entirety of the 2019 campaign, Arizona non-tendered him, allowing Souza to reach free agency for the first time in his career. He’d go on to see MLB action over the next three seasons with the Cubs, Dodgers and Mariners, respectively, but unable to recapture his previous form. Over those three seasons, he hit .152/.221/.291.
In the end, Souza was able to appear in 505 MLB games and make 1,895 plate appearances. He’ll head into retirement with a lifetime batting line of .229/.318/.411, 72 home runs, 71 doubles, eight triples, 383 total hits, 223 runs scored, 207 runs driven in and 42 stolen bases. He was able to earn more than $10MM over his big league tenure. MLBTR congratulates Souza on a fine career and wishes him the best of luck in his next chapter.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Outrights: Barnes, Inciarte
Updates on a couple of players who were recently designated for assignment…
- Right-hander Jacob Barnes has cleared waivers and elected free agency, per his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He was designated for assignment by the Mariners last week. The 32-year-old is in his seventh season of MLB action, having signed a minor league deal with the Tigers and then cracking their Opening Day roster. Despite striking out over 25% of batters faced in both 2020 and 2021, his rate plummeted to 11.2% this year. Although his ground ball rate jumped a few ticks to 51.5%, he still registered an ERA of 6.10 on the year before getting designated for assignment in June. After reaching free agency, he landed with the Mariners on a minor league deal and eventually got selected to the big league club. However, he was designated assignment again the next day, without getting into a game for the M’s. He will now return to the open market and look for his next opportunity.
- Outfielder Ender Inciarte, designated for assignment by the Mets last week, has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Syracuse, per his transactions tracker at MLB.com. Inciarte, 31, signed a minor league deal with the Yankees in the offseason but was released in mid-June. He latched on with the Mets on another minors deal, eventually making the big league club but lasting just over two weeks on the roster. He filled a bench/defensive substitute role for the team, getting into 11 games but making only eight plate appearances. Despite strong defense, his offensive output at the MLB level has declined in recent years. He hit at a decent clip in his time in the Yankees’ system this year, slashing .252/.336/.408, wRC+ of 101. As a veteran with more than five years of MLB experience, he has the ability to reject an outright assignment without forfeiting any salary, though it’s unclear whether he’s done so or not.
AL Notes: Mariners, Athletics, Yankees
The Mariners have reinstated Carlos Santana from the restricted list, the team announced. In a corresponding roster move, Kevin Padlo was optioned to Triple-A. It’s a good time to return to the Mariners, who are amid a 20-3 run, including an active 12-game winning streak. Santana has appeared in 15 games for the Mariners since being acquired from the Royals, slashing a robust .245/.383/.449 in that time. Elsewhere around the junior circuit…
- Frankie Montas intends to return to the A’s rotation after the All-Star break, per MLB.com. The right-hander will throw a bullpen on Saturday in the hopes of being ready to make his first start since July 3rd. Montas knows that the sooner he gets back on the hill, the sooner he continues to showcase for a potential trade. “As much as I don’t want to think about it, I don’t know, I think it’s a big possibility that I still get traded,” Montas said, per Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle.
- Vinny Nittoli plans to opt out of his contract with the New York Yankees, per Robert Murray of FanSided (via Twitter). The 31-year-old right-hander has just one career appearance in the Majors. That appearance came last season with the Mariners, who drafted him in the 25th round of the 2014 draft. This season he has logged 36 2/3 innings in Triple-A with a 3.44 ERA for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
List Of Home Run Derby Contestants
July 14: Rangers shortstop Corey Seager will return to Dodger Stadium as the final Derby participant, Texas announced. Seager, who was also named to the American League All-Star team this afternoon as an injury replacement, has hit 21 homers on the season. He also appeared in the 2016 Home Run Derby.
July 13, 6:25pm: Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez will also participate, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (on Twitter). Ramirez has never participated in the Derby before, but he’ll join the event amidst a 17-homer season. Like Rodriguez, he’ll be part of the American League All-Star team the following night.
July 13, 3:50pm: Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez announced on social media that he will be joining the contest. As a rookie, this will naturally be his first appearance in the derby.
July 12: Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber has joined the field, with Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer relaying that he himself posted about it on Instagram.
July 11, 9:21pm: Nationals star Juan Soto will also participate. The Talk Nats blog first reported (on Twitter) that Soto would accept an invitation if offered and Héctor Gómez of Z101 confirmed he’d be in the event. Soto, who was a part of last year’s event, has hit 17 longballs on the season. He’ll also be part of the NL All-Star Team the following night.
7:06pm: The 2022 Home Run Derby will take place next Monday, and the field is beginning to take shape. Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. each announced this afternoon that they’d be participating, while Katie Woo of the Athletic reports that Cardinals designated hitter Albert Pujols will partake as well.
Pujols’ participation is the most surprising (and notable) of the three. He’s a four-time contestant but hasn’t appeared in a Derby in more than a decade. He’s only hit five longballs this year but twice led the National League during his first stint in St. Louis and is fifth all-time in homers. In his final big league season, Pujols is already set to head to the All-Star Game in recognition of his career. He’ll add the Derby to the celebration.
Alonso is hoping to defend his two straight titles. The New York slugger won in 2019, then backed that up with another championship last year. (The 2020 Derby was canceled). Along the way, he knocked off Acuña in the semifinals during the 2019 event. Atlanta’s star outfielder will join the festivities for a second time. Both Alonso and Acuña will team with Pujols on the NL All-Stars; Alonso is a reserve, while Acuña will be in Brian Snitker‘s starting lineup.
Andrew Knapp Elects Free Agency
The Mariners announced that catcher Andrew Knapp has elected minor league free agency after passing through outright waivers unclaimed. Seattle designated him for assignment over the weekend.
Knapp’s stay with the Mariners proved quite brief. Seattle added the switch-hitting backstop on a non-roster deal in late May. He spent a bit more than a month with Triple-A Tacoma, hitting .198/.250/.432 with four home runs through 88 plate appearances. The Mariners added him to the major league team during the final week of June upon losing Luis Torrens to the injured list, but they let Knapp go once Torrens returned to health.
The 2022 season has been a bit of a roller-coaster for Knapp, who has appeared with three different organizations. He signed a minor league deal with the Reds during the offseason and spent Spring Training with Cincinnati. Knapp triggered an opt-out clause after failing to make the team out of Spring Training, and he quickly landed a big league deal with the Pirates thereafter. He appeared in 11 games with Pittsburgh before the Bucs DFA him, and he only suited up twice at the MLB level for the Mariners.
Before this year, Knapp had spent his entire career with the Phillies. The former second-round pick appeared in five seasons with Philadelphia, generally in a backup capacity. He hit .214/.314/.322 over that stretch, but he owns a more tenable .252/.322/.389 line through four years in Triple-A. Knapp has never been an impact offensive player in the upper levels, but he shouldn’t have much trouble finding a minor league spot again with teams always on the lookout for experienced catching depth.
Luis Castillo Drawing Widespread Interest; Reds Not Close To Any Deal
July 12: The Reds aren’t close to any trades as of this morning, tweets Jim Bowden of The Athletic, who adds that “most” contending clubs have checked in on Cincinnati. That includes both the Cardinals and the Mariners, who have not been prominently linked to Castillo until this point (but who both make logical sense as a potential landing spot).
July 11: The Dodgers and Reds have had preliminary talks about Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Los Angeles joins a growing list of contenders known to be in contact with the Reds front office.
Castillo is one of the sport’s most obvious trade candidates, placing fourth on MLBTR’s Top 50 list last week. The right-hander is arbitration-eligible through 2023, but Cincinnati has no hope of competing this season. With the opportunity to market two possible postseason pushes to contenders, Castillo’s value around the league will never be higher than it is this summer. Teams like the Twins, Padres, Mets, Yankees, and Blue Jays have all been reported to have inquired in recent weeks. That’s presumably not an exhaustive list, as virtually every contender is likely to check in with Cincinnati general manager Nick Krall and his staff.
The 29-year-old Castillo carries a personal-best 2.92 ERA through his first 12 starts of the season. He’s been in peak form of late, tossing 20 innings of three-run ball with 25 strikeouts and five walks over his past three outings. Of course, Castillo has a multi-year track record as one of the sport’s better pitchers. He’s allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine innings in five of his six big league campaigns. One of the game’s hardest throwers, he typically blends a rare combination of swing-and-miss and ground-ball upside. This season’s respective 25.3% strikeout rate and 49.7% grounder percentage are both down a bit from his best levels, but each remains decidedly above-average.
Castillo missed the first month of this season with shoulder soreness. That set him off on a less than ideal start, but he’s rounded into form over the past few weeks. Although his fastball velocity was down a tick in May, he’s built arm strength as the season has worn on. According to Statcast, Castillo has averaged 97.7 MPH on his four-seam and 97.1 MPH on his sinker through his two starts this month. That’s in line with or better than last year’s respective 97.1 MPH and 97.3 MPH season averages, seemingly putting away any concerns clubs might’ve had stemming from his early-season injury.
Alongside teammate Tyler Mahle and A’s hurler Frankie Montas, Castillo is one of three high-octane controllable starters widely expected to be available at the deadline. Mahle is on the 15-day injured list with a shoulder strain, while Montas is dealing with some shoulder inflammation. Mahle has indicated he expects to be reinstated well in advance of the August 2 deadline, though, and the A’s remain hopeful that Montas can avoid the IL entirely and start this week (link via Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). Even if all three pitchers are healthy, one could argue for Castillo to land the strongest return based on his track record and recent dominance.
The Reds are understandably setting their sights high in discussions. Jon Heyman of the New York reports that Cincinnati has sought one of Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza as a headliner in talks with the Yankees. Each player is a top shortstop prospect, with Volpe topping the Yankees’ farm rankings and placing among the 15 best farmhands leaguewide at each of Baseball America, FanGraphs, ESPN and the Athletic heading into the 2022 season. Peraza is generally regarded as the second or third-best player in the New York system; he landed second in the organization and 79th overall on BA’s recent Top 100 update.
It’s hard to envision New York parting with Volpe in any trade, but a player of Peraza’s caliber is a reasonable starting point for the Cincinnati front office. The Blue Jays sent the Twins two prospects generally regarded as top 100 talents (Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson) for a year and a half of José Berríos’ services last summer. Martin was a somewhat divisive player but just a season removed from being drafted fifth and ranked by most outlets as a top 50 overall talent at the time of the deal.
Peraza isn’t having a great season offensively in Triple-A (.242/.313/.411 through 275 plate appearances), but he’s young for the level, having just turned 22. He’s viewed as a strong defensive player, and the Yankees’ belief in he and Volpe was cited frequently as a reason for the club declining to aggressively pursue the big-ticket free agent shortstops available last winter.
Whether or not the Yankees are willing to entertain the possibility of putting Peraza in a Castillo trade, the lofty reported ask reflects the Reds’ leverage in dangling an arm of his caliber. They’ll certainly look towards the upper ranks of the farm systems of other clubs inquiring over the next few weeks. In all likelihood, talks with myriad teams will continue until the days immediately preceding the deadline and perhaps into August 2 itself.
Mariners Designate Jacob Barnes For Assignment
The Mariners announced that righty Erik Swanson has been reinstated from the paternity list. To make room for him on the active roster, fellow righty Jacob Barnes has been designated for assignment.
Barnes, 32, is a veteran in his seventh season of MLB action, having previously pitched for the Brewers, Royals, Angels, Mets and Blue Jays, before signing with the Tigers in the offseason on a minor league deal. He made Detroit’s Opening Day roster and threw 20 2/3 innings out of their bullpen, but saw his strikeouts mysteriously evaporate. Prior to this year, he had a career strikeout rate of 24.4% but saw that drop to just 11.2% this year. Given that development and his unsightly 6.10 ERA, the Tigers designated him for assignment about a month ago.
Once he cleared waivers, the Tigers were on the hook for the remainder of his $1.13MM salary. As a veteran with over five years of MLB service time, Barnes has the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency while still retaining his rate of pay. Any team that picked him up would only owe him the prorated league minimum, with that amount being subtracted from what the Tigers pay.
Barnes latched on with the Mariners on a minors deal about a week later and joined the Triple-A Tacoma Rainiers. He threw four innings there and got an encouraging five strikeouts, though in a very tiny sample size. The M’s selected him to the big league club on Saturday for an extra bullpen arm but have now sent him into DFA limbo without getting him into a game. Since Barnes is out of options, this was the only way to get him off the roster to make room for Swanson.
Seattle will now have a week to trade Barnes, pass him through waivers or release him. Like his last DFA, the most likely scenario is that Barnes clears waivers and elects free agency again. He’ll then be free to work out a deal with any of the 30 teams, likely of the minor league variety.
Mariners Option George Kirby To Triple-A, Select Jacob Barnes
TODAY: Mariners manager Scott Servais went into more detail on the Kirby option today, telling reporters (including Jen Mueller of Root Sports) that beyond saving Kirby some innings, it also allows the Mariners to add a fresh bullpen arm to the active roster. Servais noted that the M’s will make a similar move with Kirby later in the season, to further preserve his arm. Kirby is slated to make a short start for Triple-A Tacoma, and he’ll rejoin the Mariners after the All-Star break.
JULY 9: In addition to the six roster moves announced earlier today, the Mariners have also made two more transactions. Right-hander George Kirby has been optioned to Triple-A Tacoma, while righty Jacob Barnes‘ contract has been selected.
As noted by The Athletic’s Corey Brock and other reporters, Kirby’s demotion isn’t about performance, but rather the Mariners’ plans to manage his workload. Between Seattle’s off-day Monday and then the July 18-21 All-Star break, Kirby’s next big league outing likely isn’t coming until late July, though he’ll probably get a couple of brief outings at Triple-A to stay warm.
This will actually be Kirby’s first time at Triple-A ball, as the M’s promoted him straight from Double-A in early May. Between the majors and minors this season, Kirby has tossed 89 total innings — already the most he has tossed over four pro seasons. While some pundits disagree about the old “Verducci Effect” rule of thumb about the dangers of a big inning increase for young arms, Kirby’s previous season high was 67 2/3 frames in 2021, and of course Kirby didn’t pitch in any official games at all in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season.
With a 14-3 record over their last 17 games, the Mariners have gotten back over the .500 mark and back into the hunt for a wild card berth. Surely the team hopes Kirby can continue to be a big part of Seattle’s push to finally end its drought of postseason baseball, and that means picking and choosing when Kirby pitches in order to keep him as fresh as possible for big games in September (or, the M’s hope, even into October).
Some service-time elements could also be in play, in regards to Kirby’s future Super Two status. The Mariners didn’t select Kirby to the MLB roster until May 8, so if he spends two weeks in Triple-A, that could put him on the borderline for future Super Two consideration if a future cutoff point is on the higher side. Missing on a fourth arbitration-eligible year would cost Kirby some serious money, though he will be getting some bonus this year under the new collective bargaining agreement’s performance bonus program for pre-arb players. As well, Kirby would automatically lock in a full year of service time and even more bonus money if he scores a top-two finish in AL Rookie Of The Year voting, though several other impressive AL rookies (including teammate Julio Rodriguez) seem favored for higher finishes in the balloting.
Kirby has looked good in his first taste of the big leagues, posting a 3.78 ERA/3.45 SIERA over 64 1/3 innings for Seattle. The 20th overall pick of the 2019 draft has allowed a lot of hard contact and his Statcast numbers aren’t overly impressive, but Kirby has an elite 3.3% walk rate that ranks in the 99th percentile of all pitchers.
Barnes posted a 6.10 ERA over 20 2/3 innings with the Tigers this season before Detroit cut him loose in June, and the Mariners inked Barnes to a new minor league contract. He has yet to pitch for the M’s at the big league level. A solid relief arm with the Brewers in 2016-18, Barnes has been trying to recapture that form ever since, posting a 6.48 ERA over an even 100 innings with six different clubs over the last three-plus years.