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Cardinals Agree To Acquire Nolan Arenado

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10:32pm: Arenado will receive another guaranteed year on his contract for roughly $15MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that he could waive his no-trade clause as early as Saturday.

8:51pm: The Cardinals and Rockies have swung an enormously impactful trade centering on Colorado third baseman Nolan Arenado, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was among those to report. The Rockies will send around $50MM to the Cardinals in the deal, according to Rosenthal, who adds that it likely won’t be official tonight and perhaps won’t go through this weekend.

Arenado has a full no-trade clause, though Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic reported earlier this week that he is likely to waive it in order to join the Cardinals. The five-time All-Star also has an opt-out clause in the seven-year, $234MM extension he signed with the Rockies before the 2019 campaign. But Arenado would still be able to opt out after 2021, he’d get an additional opt-out after ’22 and he would keep his full no-trade clause, Rosenthal tweets. He still has $199MM left on his pact over the next six years.

This has been a low-profile winter for St. Louis and the rest of its competition in the National League Central competition, but the Cardinals have suddenly come alive after a long slumber. Before agreeing to acquire Arenado, they re-signed right-hander Adam Wainwright, and indications are that they’ll bring back catcher Yadier Molina. Of course, in terms of impact, Wainwright and Molina pale in comparison to Arenado, one of baseball’s highest-profile stars. The well-rounded Arenado, who will turn 30 in April, has batted .293/.349/.541 with 235 home runs in 4,558 plate appearances since he debuted in 2013. Arenado has also totaled a whopping 120 Defensive Runs Saved and a 56.4 Ultimate Zone Rating at third base, where he has won eight straight Gold Gloves.

While Arenado was hugely successful in Colorado, his relationship with the team was – in a word – rocky over the past couple years. The Rockies were a playoff team from 2017-18, but they’ve dropped off drastically since. After the club fell well shy of a playoff spot in 2019, Arenado made it known he was unhappy with the direction of the franchise, saying he felt “disrespected.” Arenado frequented trade rumors then, but the Rockies retained him during what turned into another subpar year for the organization. It was also a disappointing campaign for Arenado, who slashed a career-worst .253/.303/.434 with eight homers in 201 PA.

Even though 2020 didn’t go as planned for Arenado, the Cardinals are clearly banking on him to serve as their long-term solution at third base. The team primarily used Matt Carpenter and Tommy Edman there last season, which was a playoff year. However, Carpenter went through his second straight below-average year, and he’s only signed for one more season. Carpenter is due to earn $18.5MM in 2021, while his $18.5MM option for 2022 is sure to be bought out for $2MM if he’s still with the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the versatile Edman could be the Cardinals’ pick at second base.

The Arenado pickup will obviously be a significant investment for the Cardinals, whose chairman, Bill DeWitt Jr., drew ire last summer for saying baseball’s not a “very profitable industry.”  But the Cardinals suddenly do look as if they’re aiming to take over the NL Central in 2021, especially with none of their other division rivals – the reigning champion Cubs, Reds, Brewers or Pirates – doing much to better themselves this offseason. Certainly, if the Arenado trade is finalized, it will be the biggest acquisition in the division this winter.

The Rockies, on the other hand, looked to be in for a third consecutive lean year in 2021 before trading Arenado, and that’s all the more true with the face of their franchise on his way out the door. They’ll likely acquire lefty Austin Gomber as part of the return, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. Rosenthal names first baseman Luken Baker, outfielder Jhon Torres, and righties Jake Woodford and Angel Rondon as other possible names the Rockies could acquire. Gomber debuted in the majors in 2018 and has posted a respectable 3.72 ERA over 104 innings, though that production obviously falls quite a bit short of the impact Arenado has made.

With Arenado leaving, the question now is whether the Rockies will deal shortstop Trevor Story, who’s entering his platform year. Story would no doubt bring back a sizable return in a trade, as he is among the top players in the game at his position. It would seem to make sense for the Rockies to part with him if they’re not expecting to contend in 2021, but they may be interested in extending him, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays.

Rockies, Cardinals Discussing Nolan Arenado Trade

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7:56pm: St. Louis is “pushing hard” for Arenado and “very determined” to get him, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

10:20am: While Arenado has been oft-connected to the deep-pocketed Mets on a speculative basis, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the two sides are not in talks at this time.

9:15am: Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post also reports that while there have been talks, there’s no trade close at this time. He adds that Arenado’s shoulder “has fully healed” after bothering him throughout much of the 2020 season. Those in need of a refresher on last year’s public tension between Arenado will want to check out Saunders’ piece for various quotes given by Arenado at the time, all of which add context to this new chapter in the saga.

8:10am: The Cardinals have been linked to Nolan Arenado for years now, but they’re once again in talks with the Rockies about a trade that would send the star third baseman from Colorado to St. Louis, Ken Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic report. The Braves also spoke to the Rockies about Arenado, it seems, but those talks haven’t gone anywhere.

Acquiring Arenado would be a considerable about-face for a Cardinals club that, up until yesterday, hadn’t shown any signs of spending this winter. The Cards declined a $12.5MM club option on Kolten Wong and have been in a months-long staredown with franchise icons Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright despite both having a clear preference to return to St. Louis. The first hint of a change came last night though, when the Cards agreed to bring Wainwright back on a one-year deal worth $8MM. Prior to that, reports had indicated that the Cardinals were offering Wainwright less than the $5MM guarantee he received in 2020.

An Arenado acquisition would represent a considerably more seismic shift in their otherwise reserved approach. Arenado is owed $199MM over the next six seasons and, next winter, would be able to opt out of the remaining five years and $164MM on that contract if he desires.

Among the most sensible contracts for the Cardinals to try to send back to the Rockies to help offset some of that financial hit would be infielder Matt Carpenter ($20.5MM in 2021, including $2MM buyout of next year’s option), Dexter Fowler ($16.5MM in 2021, including deferred signing bonus) or Carlos Martinez ($12MM in 2021, including $500K buyout of 2022 option). St. Louis would clearly need to send prospect value to Colorado as well, and it should be emphasized that trading either Carpenter or Fowler could prove difficult. Both have full no-trade protection.

Arenado has a full no-trade clause of his own, though Rosenthal and Groke suggest he’d “likely” waive it for a move to the Cardinals and might even be willing to push back the opt-out provision in order to facilitate a deal. Arenado has been vocal in the past about the desire to play for a contender and has publicly expressed frustration with Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich, whom he has called “very disrespectful.” Were the Rockies winning, perhaps the rift between player and GM could be overlooked, but the Rox have been one of the least-competitive clubs in the NL West for the past two seasons and have done nothing to add to the club this winter.

Lining up on an Arenado trade is complicated for a number of reasons. Beyond the no-trade clause and the huge amount of money still owed to the eight-time Gold Glover, he’s also coming off the worst showing of his career at the plate. The downturn could potentially be attributable to a shoulder injury he battled in 2020, but the results were still somewhat troubling.

Arenado hit .253/.303/.434 (76 wRC+) this past season — a mark that is miles away from the .295/.351/.546 (120 wRC+) batting line that he carried into the 2020 campaign. If the Cardinals or another club believe that Arenado’s struggles were indeed due to that balky shoulder, perhaps the dip in production can be overlooked. Then again, there has to be some level of concern about the injury troubles persisting. Arenado turns 30 in April.

From a payroll vantage point, the Cardinals owe Paul Goldschmidt $26MM in each of the next four seasons, and they’ll pay Miles Mikolas $17MM in each of the next three. Those are the two main salaries on the books, however, and the rest of the long-term slate is relatively clean. Taking on the full freight of Arenado’s current salary would vault the Cardinals’ 2021 payroll up into the $165MM range, although if they can unload a pricey veteran of their own onto Colorado as part of the deal, that sum could fall more in the $145-155MM range. The Cards were willing to spend at that level each year from 2016-19, so there’s precedent, although owner Bill DeWitt Jr. has also been vocal in dubiously claiming baseball to be a less-profitable industry than most realize. The extent to which he’ll spend on the heels of a season with zero gate revenue is still up for debate.

Adding Arenado to the fray would give the Cards about $85MM in commitments in both 2022 and 2023. It’d also bump their 2024 commitments to about $61MM, all going to a pair of what will then be mid-30s corner infielders (Arenado and Goldschmidt). Whether investing that type of coin in a pair of sluggers’ mid-30s is the best use of resources is debatable, but in the short-term, the club would be better off for the move (assuming a healthy Arenado).

That’s particularly true in 2021, where the entire NL Central has been more focused on making their current rosters worse, in order to reduce payroll, than on actually making an effort to win in the upcoming season. The Cubs reportedly agreed to a deal with Joc Pederson this morning, but they’ve also traded away Yu Darvish, non-tendered Kyle Schwarber and explored trades of other key veterans. The Reds dumped Raisel Iglesias’ salary and non-tendered Archie Bradley. The Brewers have yet to add anyone of particular note, and the Pirates are of course in the midst of an aggressive tear-down as their latest rebuild kicks into full gear.

As written here before, the NL Central appears open for the taking to whichever of the Cardinals, Cubs, Reds or Brewers decide they want to be aggressive enough to seize it. An Arenado trade for the Cardinals would certainly fall into that category.

Yadier Molina Expected To Re-Sign With Cardinals

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Free-agent catcher Yadier Molina is expected to re-sign with the Cardinals at the conclusion of the Caribbean Series on Feb. 6, perhaps before then, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch previously reported Molina was expected to stay with the club.

What was previously a silent offseason for the Cardinals has turned into an active one, as they re-signed right-hander Adam Wainwright on Friday and have been connected to Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado in trade rumors. Like Wainwright, Molina is one of the most accomplished players in Cardinals history.

Molina has spent his entire career with the St. Louis organization since it used a fourth-round pick on him in 2000, but there was some doubt about the nine-time All-Star’s future earlier this winter. The 38-year-old garnered interest from other teams (including the Yankees, Mets, Padres and Angels) and even mentioned retirement as a possibility. But it appears Molina will instead remain with the Cardinals for the 18th year in a row.

While Molina isn’t the high-end producer he was during his heyday, he remains a useful starting catcher even at this late stage of his career. His .262/.303/.359 line in 156 plate appearances last season was good for an 82 wRC+, which fell short of the league-average mark of 90 wRC+ but was still fairly respectable for the position. Behind the plate, Molina threw out a whopping 45 percent of would-be base thieves (the average mark was 24 percent) and, per Statcast, finished in the league’s 73rd percentile as a pitch framer. He’s also one of the most respected leaders in the game, making him all the more valuable to the Cardinals.

Assuming he does finalize a deal with St. Louis, Molina should comprise the team’s top two catchers alongside Andrew Knizner in 2021. The Cardinals had veteran Matt Wieters on their roster last season, and he collected 41 PA (Knizner had 17), but he’s now a free agent.

Cardinals Re-Sign Adam Wainwright

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Jan. 29: The Cardinals have announced Wainwright’s return. There’s a full no-trade clause and up to $775K in award bonuses, Heyman tweets.

Jan. 28: The Cardinals are bringing back franchise icon Adam Wainwright on what’s “believed to be” a one-year deal worth $8MM, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Wainwright’s contract includes incentives, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The right-hander is a client of Aegis Sports Management.

This is the first true sign of life this offseason from the Cardinals, who have seen Wainwright, catcher Yadier Molina and second baseman Kolten Wong (after a declined option) hit free agency but haven’t done anything to upgrade their roster. Nevertheless, it’s no surprise the Cardinals are keeping Wainwright, a longtime member of the organization whom they’ve been connected to throughout the winter.

A Cardinal since his major league debut in 20o5, Wainwright is one of the most accomplished pitchers in their storied history. The three-time All-Star may not be the ace he was earlier during his time in the majors, but he remains a quality starter at this late stage of his career. As a 39-year-old in 2020, Wainwright turned in 65 2/3 innings over just 10 starts and recorded a 3.15 ERA/4.39 SIERA with a 20.6 percent strikeout rate and an above-average 5.7 percent walk rate. Among Cardinals starters, Wainwright easily ranked first in innings, outdoing Jack Flaherty by almost 25 full frames, and checked in behind Dakota Hudson and Kwang Hyun Kim in ERA.

Because he underwent Tommy John surgery in September, Hudson won’t be available for the Cardinals in 2021. That only increases Wainwright’s importance for the club, which will count on him, Flaherty and Kim to perform well near the top of their starting staff. Carlos Martinez and Miles Mikolas, who missed all of last season after undergoing right flexor tendon surgery, look as if they’ll fill out the Cardinals’ rotation at the beginning of the campaign. It doesn’t appear to be the safest group, but Wainwright should be one of its stabilizing forces.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Cardinals’ Free Agents

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At the outset of the offseason, it seemed plausible to imagine a world in which Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, and Kolten Wong would return to the team without ever really testing free agency. Instead, Wainwright and Molina eschewed quick reunion deals in favor of market exploration and the club declined its option over Wong.

As Spring Training closes in, the fates of all three players remain unknown. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch updates the market situation of these St. Louis stalwarts.

Wainwright is unsurprisingly drawing a good amount of interest, it seems. Goold says that the veteran righty is sitting on multiple offers, including one from the upstart Padres. Details remain unknown — including how the San Diego team would propose to fit him in a loaded rotation mix. Neither is it clear how strongly Wainwright is considering alternative destinations at this point.

The Cards are still pursuing both Wainwright and Molina, per Goold, having extended “updated offers” to each player. There’s no further word as to whether the longtime teammates are coordinating in a bid to land in the same place, as they’ve discussed previously.

It’s quite a different situation with respect to Wong, who enjoyed a quality run with the Cardinals but doesn’t have quite the organizational standing of the aforementioned legends. The second bagger has reportedly had contact with his former employer, but it’s far from clear that they’re headed for a reunion. Goold writes that the club has “not actively pursued” a new deal with Wong.

The Cards remain in a somewhat odd situation on the heels of a good-but-not-great season. The org hasn’t had a losing season since 2007, has quite a bit of talent on hand, and has a tantalizing opportunity to capitalize on an NL Central division that may be the game’s weakest. At the moment, though, the club is taking an outwardly passive approach to the offseason.

The above-linked article contains further exploration of the situations. It also features updates on the winter ball action of Molina and key righty Carlos Martinez.

Infield Notes: Phillies, Simmons, Wong, Tigers, Paredes

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The Phillies narrowed their focus on Andrelton Simmons before he signed with the Twins this afternoon, writes Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Didi Gregorius remains in play to return, but he may not be so keen on another one-year deal. Regardless, the Phillies prefer not to move Jean Segura back to short, notes Lauber. Even with Gregorius more-or-less the only remaining starting shortstop on the market, Segura’s presence, as well as Scott Kingery, means they don’t have to panic on an overpay. Should they ultimately strike out on Gregorius, Jonathan Villar and Hanser Alberto lurk as free agents, or the Phils could turn to the trade market to make a play for either Trevor Story of the Rockies or Javier Baez of the Cubs. Neither club has seemed particularly likely to move their star shortstop, but Phillies’ president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski might be the guy to convince them. Let’s check in on some other infield news…

  • With middle infielders flying off the shelves, Kolten Wong is seeing an uptick in interest, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The ace defensive second baseman has seen at least preliminary interest from the Tigers, Mariners, Rays, Cubs, Phillies, and Cardinals, with whom he’s spent his entire career. Wong’s power disappeared in 2020, slashing .265/.350/.326, but he won a second consecutive Gold Glove Award and continued to be an on-base presence for the Cardinals. Wong has quietly posted 3.3 bWAR per 600 plate appearances throughout his career, and as he enters his age-30 season, he could prove one of the more impactful free agents remaining on the market.
  • The Tigers plan on experimenting with Isaac Paredes at second base, writes Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Paredes is penciled in as the Tigers’ everyday third baseman, but manager A.J. Hinch said basically that there is no harm in expanding the 21-year-old’s skill set. He’s been on fire playing winter ball, and with Jeimer Candelario having a big season in 2020 (and Spencer Torkelson on his way to claim one of the infield corners,) it’s certainly worth testing the limits of Paredes’ defensive abilities.

 

Latest On Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright

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The Cardinals have made offers to re-sign both Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright, team chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. said during an interview as part of the Cards’ “Winter Warm-Up” event (done in virtual fashion this year).  Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch provides added details on these offers, noting that both Molina and Wainwright were offered less guaranteed money than they were supposed to earn in 2020, prior to the pandemic-induced prorated salary cuts.

This isn’t a surprise in Molina’s case, as his offensive downturn in recent years was naturally expected to result in a new salary worth substantially less than the $20MM average annual salary on his previous contract.  Wainwright’s one-year deal for the 2020 season, however, paid him $5MM, and it certainly seemed plausible that Wainwright would top that more modest sum in his next deal.

Though Wainwright turned 39 last August, he has still looked like an effective big league arm, tossing 171 2/3 innings in 2019 and posting a 3.15 ERA over 65 2/3 frames in the shortened 2020 season.  Overall, Wainwright has a 3.91 ERA, 20.6K%, and 12.7K-BB% over 237 1/3 innings since the start of the 2019 campaign.

MLBTR projected Wainwright for a one-year, $6MM pact, with the raise reflecting his solid work in helping carry the Cardinals’ rotation while the roster was ravaged by a COVID-19 outbreak.  If the Cards aren’t willing to hit even the $5MM threshold in guaranteed money, it could increase the chances of Wainwright pitching elsewhere in 2021, and changing teams for the first time in his career.  The veteran told ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers that he had “recently” fielded offers from multiple teams, so it would appear as thought Wainwright has options if he indeed isn’t satisfied with what the Cardinals have put on the table.

Molina has also recently indicated that he could move on from both St. Louis, and even from his playing career altogether if he doesn’t find an acceptable offer.  Molina has been known to be looking for a two-year deal, which could be difficult given his age (38), his aforementioned dropoff at the plate, and the fact that several teams looking for catching help this winter have made other acquisitions at the position.

Of course, there is still plenty of time for either or both of Molina and Wainwright to come to an agreement with the Cardinals.  As Rogers notes, “industry executives” still feel that the two players will ultimately return to St. Louis, and both players have also repeatedly stated that their first choice is to play at least another season in Cardinal red.

Quick Hits: Blue Jays, Brantley, Cardinals, Hicks, Astros

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The Blue Jays continue to have interest in Michael Brantley, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Toronto’s top free agent outfield target remains George Springer, and Rosenthal floats the possibility of the Jays signing both players. Springer and Brantley have spent the past two seasons as teammates with the Astros, and Brantley is plenty familiar with Jays’ president/CEO Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins from their time in Cleveland. Signing both Springer and Brantley would make for a bit of an awkward fit on-paper, since Toronto already has a glut of corner outfield/designated hitter options. Nevertheless, doing so could free the Jays up to trade one of their young, in-house outfielders for rotation help, Rosenthal feels.

Some more from around the sport:

  • Cardinals reliever Jordan Hicks is “ready to go” for next season, bullpen coach Bryan Eversgerd tells reporters (including Anne Rogers of MLB.com). That’s welcome news after a setback in Hicks’ recovery from Tommy John surgery contributed to his choice to opt out of the 2020 season. The 24-year-old suffers from Type 1 diabetes, which no doubt also played a role in that decision. In 106.2 career innings between 2018-19, the fireballer has pitched to a 3.47 ERA behind an elite 62.3% groundball rate.
  • The Astros have signed Ryne Stanek and Pedro Báez this winter. Even still, they’d like to continue to add to their bullpen, ideally by acquiring a traditional closer, writes Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. “It’s something that I think all of us would like to have, and it can certainly make you feel better about your bullpen than if you don’t have someone who maybe has done it in the past,” general manager James Click said of a set ninth inning option. “However, there are always guys who step up into that role every year. There are new closers every year, and our young talent on this roster did an impressive job last season in stepping up in some roles that, if we’re being honest, I don’t think that we thought that they might have been ready for, and our hand was forced because of a lot of different reasons.” As Click alluded to, Houston’s bullpen was decimated by injuries in 2020 and ranked just 24th league-wide with a 4.55 SIERA. One potential option is Brad Hand, with whom the club remains in contact, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Molina Mentions Possibility Of Retirement As Free Agency Lingers

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Cardinals icon Yadier Molina remains in a staredown of sorts with the only team he’s ever known, seeking a two-year deal while the Cards idle amid budgetary uncertainty. Molina noted earlier in the winter that he’s heard from as many as five other clubs, but his preference has clearly been to return to the Cardinals.

Now, in an interview with La Vida Baseball’s Polo Ascencio (hat tip: Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch), Molina suggests that if he doesn’t receive the right offer, he feels he could retire with his head held high after a terrific 17-year career. Molina made clear that he’s still working out, getting ready as if he’ll play in 2021.

It’s hard to imagine Molina walking away when he’s previously been so adamant about continuing his career, but the Cardinals haven’t been aggressive in their efforts to retain Molina or longtime teammates Adam Wainwright and Kolten Wong — both free agents themselves (Wong after having his 2021 club option declined).

The rest of the market for Molina’s services, meanwhile, may have changed a bit since receiving that early interest. The Mets signed James McCann, taking them out of the market for another catcher. Molina previously mentioned interest from the Padres, but they picked up Victor Caratini from the Cubs. The Yankees are still in a staring contest of their own with DJ LeMahieu and don’t appear willing to spend elsewhere until there’s resolution on that front. The Angels, another club mentioned by Molina himself, could still be a fit but are surely looking at the pitching market and perhaps at J.T. Realmuto, who also remains unsigned. The Phillies would make another on-paper fit, but they, too, are intently waiting to see where Realmuto’s market goes. Goold notes that the Nationals have also been in touch with Molina, but they’ve been focused on adding more thump to their lineup to this point.

At the very least, it seems likely that once Realmuto is off the board, Molina will receive strong one-year interest as the clear best alternative on the market. Whether that pushes the Cardinals or another club toward the two-year term he prefers can’t be known at this time, nor can the level of potential gamesmanship in his comments about retirement be known. However, with about $155MM in career earnings under his belt already, Molina won’t feel financially obligated to simply take the best offer out there if he doesn’t feel he’s being valued appropriately on the market.

There’s no denying that Molina’s bat has tailed off over the past two seasons. He remains extremely difficult to strike out (13 percent) but has posted a combined .268/.310/.388 batting line since Opening Day 2019 — a pronounced decrease from the .282/.330/.434 output he notched from 2016-18. Molina’s bat is still roughly in line with that of the league-average catcher (by measure of wRC+), however, and he’s still revered for his ability to call a game, frame and block pitches, and control baserunners.

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