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Calculating The Cards’ Future Contract Guarantees

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2020 salary terms still need to be hammered out. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.

Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.

We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Prior entries can be found here. Next up is the Cardinals:

*Includes remaining bonus payments owed to Paul Goldschmidt, Miles Mikolas, and Dexter Fowler

*Includes buyouts on club options in Carlos Martinez, Paul DeJong, Matt Carpenter, Andrew Miller, and Kolten Wong contracts

(click to expand/view detail list)

Cardinals Sign 70th Overall Pick Alec Burleson

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  • The Cardinals announced the signing of outfielder Alec Burleson, whom they drafted 70th overall. He’ll earn $700K, quite a bit less than the $906,800 value of his pick, according Jim Callis of MLB.com. The Cards landed the choice they used on Burleson as compensation for the departure of outfielder Marcell Ozuna in free agency. An East Carolina University product, Burleson topped out as FanGraphs’ 108th-ranked prospect before the draft. Burleson was a successful first baseman and left-handed pitcher in college, but he’s regarded as a much better hitting prospect, MLB.com notes.

Amateur Draft Signings: 6/13/20

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Let’s kick off this Saturday morning by checking in on some of the latest post-draft signings from around the league. We’ll update this post periodically throughout the day as more news trickles in…

Latest Signings

  • Cardinals fourth-rounder Ian Bedell will sign with the team, the right-hander told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers.  Terms of the agreement weren’t revealed, though the 122nd overall selection has a $469K slot value.  “I would have gone back to school if the signing bonus wasn’t there, but they made a good offer, and I couldn’t be happier,” said Bedell, who grew up as a Cards fan.  Draft pundits had a pretty wide range of opinions on Bedell’s draft stock (The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked him as the 58th-best prospect in the draft class, Fangraphs 85th, MLB Pipeline 88th, and Baseball America 105th), though those rankings still represent somewhat of a steal for the Cardinals with the 122nd pick.  Bedell drew praise for his command and control of his pitches rather than his pure arsenal, and he pitched very well in the Cape Cod League last summer.

Earlier Today

  • The Phillies and third-rounder Casey Martin have reached an agreement, Martin told The Athletic’s Matt Gelb (subscription required).  The 87th overall pick has a $689.3K slot price attached, and while Martin didn’t specify the terms of his contract, the Arkansas shortstop said the deal was a “fair amount for where I was picked and for my value.”  Martin didn’t play well before the 2020 college season came to an abrupt end, which may explain why he fell to the third round despite late-first/early-second round grades from prospect analysts (MLB Pipeline ranked Martin as the 30th-best prospect available in the draft).  There are questions surrounding Martin’s ability to avoid strikeouts and whether or not he could remain at shortstop in the long term, though he carries a lot of hitting potential and outstanding 70-grade speed.
  • The Astros have agreements in place with a couple of their draft picks from this week’s abbreviated MLB draft. Fourth-round selection Zach Daniels has an agreement in place, though the terms of the deal have not yet been disclosed, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. The Astros also came to terms with shortstop Shay Whitcomb from UC San Diego, who was the 160th and final pick of this draft (Mark Berman of KRIV Fox 26 had the report).  Though Whitcomb was the final player chosen, the slot value of that pick is still $324.1K, a significant bump from what those undrafted players can command. Players who went undrafted can sign with any team of their choosing, but only for a maximum payout of $20K. 
  • Orioles fifth-round selection Carter Baumler has plans to sign with Baltimore, per Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun. Baumler is a 6’2″ right-handed pitcher hailing from Dowling Catholic High School in Iowa. The 133rd overall pick of the draft carries a slot value of $422.3K. Baumler’s deal will come in well above slot at $1.5MM, tweets Mason McRae of Prospects 365 (confirmed by Tommy Birch of the Des Moines Register). As Birch writes in a full piece, Baumler turned down two other teams before agreeing to sign with the Orioles. Had he not received an offer to his liking, Baumler was ready to play college ball for Texas Christian.
  • Rangers second-rounder Evan Carter will sign his first professional contract rather than attend Duke University, according to T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. Carter is a lefty-swinging outfielder out of Elizabethton High School in Tennessee, and was picked by the Rangers with the 50th overall pick in the draft. The financials of his deal have not been disclosed, but the slot amount for the 50th overall selection is $1,469,900.

DeWitt Claims Baseball Industry “Isn’t Very Profitable”

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Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. offered some eyebrow-raising comments in an interview with Frank Cusumano of 590 The Fan (audio link). You’ll want to listen to the entire chat for yourself, but we’ll cover some pertinent elements here — in particular, his highly questionable claim that the baseball industry isn’t even a terribly profitable one.

DeWitt says he believes there will be a 2020 season and that the game will be fine in the long haul. Baseball has “always survived and come back stronger,” he says.

But that doesn’t mean it’ll come about through a mutually satisfactory bargaining process. Indeed, DeWitt seemed less than optimistic that the sides will end up agreeing to terms.

“At some point we do have the right to implement a season and pay full salaries and the only way it makes sense is with a shorter season,” he said. “And that’s I think the way it’ll turn out.”

DeWitt insists that the owners want to make the season as long as possible. At the same time, he rejected the idea of pushing play outside the normal bounds of late October/early November. He cited concerns of a second COVID-19 wave and called it “a little bit of a ridiculous proposal” to imagine “Christmas shopping while you’re watching the World Series on television.”

The Cards’ chairman left little doubt as to where the league sees its leverage. “We understand that if we implement a season — a shorter season — that they will get full pay but in total they’ll make less money,” he said. “So it really doesn’t make a lot of sense for them to continue to hold out.”

That’s all interesting enough, but DeWitt’s most notable comments came when he attempted an explanation of the owners’ overarching position that players should share in the downside of a limited 2020 campaign. The host posed the question why players should subsidize losses even when their salaries have declined on average while the game raked in record revenues over the past two seasons.

DeWitt rejected the idea that declining salaries were tied to more profits: “don’t think for a minute that the reduced payroll added money in the pockets of the owners because it didn’t.” Citing the growth of non-player personnel — from 240 to 400 in the past six years, he says — DeWitt claims “It’s a bit of a zero-sum game” because “a lot more is put into training, conditioning, promotional work, front office, analytics.”

One might respond that what the teams are really doing with those alternative investments — given the areas of emphasis DeWitt cited — is looking for more efficient ways to spend their roster-related funds. And to boost the profitability of the existing product.

But DeWitt insists, against all reason, that “The industry isn’t very profitable, to be quite honest.” It’s rather a remarkable quote.

Depending upon how one draws the lines around the multi-faceted business efforts tied to the game, it may be possible to narrowly support such a claim. But surely, when you pull in broader efforts — television, retail, real estate — someone is making money in the industry?

DeWitt even rejects that notion in large part. He referenced the Cardinals’ massive Ballpark Village effort — the second phase of which the team values at $260MM. It’s an opportunity to benefit St. Louis, he says, but for the Cardinals? Per DeWitt, “we don’t view as a great profit opportunity.”

DeWitt went on to suggest that it’s the players’ own historic preference for market-based salaries that is gumming up the efforts to resume play. Other sports are “aligned with the players,” says DeWitt, because “the more the revenue the more the players get based on a formula.” It’s interesting that this viewpoint arose at this particular moment, during a downturn. And it’s not entirely clear why such a sophisticated businessperson suddenly feels he and his fellow owners aren’t able to adequately consider costs and revenues when bidding on talent.

DeWitt notes that there’s “been a little bit of distrust” when it comes to the players believing ownership’s sharing of financial information. Frankly, it’s not hard to see why. Players have indeed shared in the benefits over the years, as DeWitt notes, even as franchise values have soared. Even though many of the league’s main profit-generating efforts have occurred somewhat outside the scope of the arena the players can access directly, they’ve no doubt been able to secure greater paydays as a result. But it’s inconceivable that wealthy investors would continue to tie up billions of dollars into a business that doesn’t throw off profits. Arguing otherwise won’t help rebuild that missing trust.

Looking At The Cardinals' Draft Options

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  • The Cardinals have five selections within the first 93 picks of Wednesday’s amateur draft, and seven picks overall during the five-round event.  As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch describes the situation, “it’s a cluster of picks that allows for some gamesmanship. The Cardinals could use it as a reason to shuffle around bonus money and reach for a pick, to gamble on signability — or play it safe, target predictable picks, and try to get sure things from an unsure draft.”  Whether the club pursues any sort of overarching strategy at all might not be realistic, as assistant GM Randy Flores notes that “in reality, each pick is made in the context of that moment.”  The shortened nature of the draft will also be a big factor in the team’s decision-making, as Goold points out that the Cardinals have traditionally been very successful at finding future gems later in the draft.  On the current St. Louis roster alone, Matt Carpenter (13th round, 2009) and Tommy Edman (sixth round, 2016) were two homegrown products drafted after the fifth round.

Each NL Team’s Top Recent Draft Class

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With the MLB draft scheduled for next week, let’s take a look at each National League team’s most successful draft class in recent memory. Using Baseball Reference’s draft tracker, we can sum the combined career bWAR of each player selected by each team in a given year. It’s a simple shorthand, not a perfect measure, but it’ll give some insight into which teams have really hit on their picks in certain years.

First, a quick note on the methodology. For simplicity, we’re limiting this search to the 2006-2015 classes. A player’s value is only included if he signed with the club, although he needn’t have actually played for his drafting team in the majors. (So, the 2008 Yankees don’t get credit for drafting but failing to sign Gerrit Cole, while the 2007 Red Sox do get credit for drafting and signing Anthony Rizzo, even though he was traded before ever playing an MLB game for Boston). Of course, a player drafted in 2006 has had more time to rack up value than one drafted in 2015, so we’ll note in each team’s capsule if a more recent class is on the verge of taking over from an older class. On to the results…

  • Braves: 2007 (76.6 bWAR) – Hitting on Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman in the first two rounds goes a long way. Heyward has been a disappointment with the Cubs but had some electrifying seasons in his early days in Atlanta (and his year in St. Louis), while Freeman has emerged as a fixture in the Braves’ lineup as one of the best hitters in baseball over the past decade.
  • Brewers: 2009 (30.7 bWAR) – This was period of some underwhelming draft returns for Milwaukee. The 2009 class tops the list thanks to Khris Davis, Mike Fiers and Scooter Gennett, all of whom are better known for their play (or whistleblowing, in Fiers’ case) elsewhere.
  • Cardinals: 2006 (56.3 bWAR) – By virtue of putting up baseball’s best record in 2005, the Cardinals sat at the back of every round in 2006. No matter, as they managed to find a handful of highly productive big leaguers. First-rounder Adam Ottavino didn’t work out in St. Louis but went on to a strong career as a reliever in Colorado. Tommy Pham (16th round) and Jon Jay (2nd round) have each carved out strong careers, while Allen Craig (8th round) had a brief but productive peak.
  • Cubs: 2007 (54.4 bWAR) – Unfortunately for the Cubs, this class is almost all about Josh Donaldson, who did none of his damage in a Chicago uniform. Perhaps Javier Báez (2012 draft) or Kris Bryant (2013 draft) will match or exceed Donaldson’s stellar career in time.
  • Diamondbacks: 2009 (73.1 bWAR) – Paul Goldschmidt (8th round) went on to become the top position player in franchise history. First-rounder AJ Pollock had a couple star-level seasons of his own before injuries knocked him off track, while Chase Anderson (9th round) has emerged as a solid back-of-the-rotation starter.
  • Dodgers: 2006 (70.6 bWAR) – The Dodgers only signed two big leaguers from the 2006 class. When one of them goes on to become arguably the best pitcher of his generation, you can more than get away with it. Clayton Kershaw’s Hall of Fame plaque will boast at least three Cy Young Awards and an NL MVP.
  • Giants: 2008 (65.6 bWAR) – The late-2000’s draft classes set up the crux of the Giants’ three World Series titles the first half of the next decade. None was more impactful than 2008, when SF grabbed Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford in the first and fourth rounds, respectively.
  • Marlins: 2010 (56.1 bWAR) – Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto have matured into two of the best players in baseball, so the Marlins’ 2010 class (which also boasted late-blooming A’s slugger Mark Canha) has a chance to be really special. Of course, none of those players are still in Miami.
  • Mets: 2010 (50.5 bWAR) – Seventh overall pick Matt Harvey was briefly the ace the Mets hoped they were adding in 2010. As it turns out, Jacob deGrom (9th round) had a lot more staying power atop their rotation.
  • Nationals: 2009 (44.9 bWAR) – First overall pick Stephen Strasburg has more than made good on that selection, culminating in a World Series MVP effort in 2019. The 2009 class also brought in a handful of role players, including Drew Storen and Michael Taylor.
  • Padres: 2007  (38.9 bWAR) – Another team for whom the top player simply got away, the crown jewel of the Padres’ 2007 class was Corey Kluber (4th round). Obviously, even San Diego didn’t him expect him to go on to win a pair of Cy Young Awards.
  • Phillies: 2014 (24.2 bWAR) – There were some tough results for the Phillies on draft day in recent seasons, but 2014 looks to be a notable exception. Aaron Nola went seventh overall and has emerged as a high-level starter, while Rhys Hoskins (fifth round) looks like the Phils’ long-term answer at first base.
  • Pirates: 2011 (29.7 bWAR) – The Pirates’ 2011 class is almost exclusively about the contributions of first overall pick Gerrit Cole, but he obviously reached his peak after being traded to Houston. Josh Bell (2nd round) looked to have turned the corner at the plate in the first half of 2019.
  • Reds: 2007 (43.1 bWAR) – The Reds found three future everyday players in the 2007 class. Todd Frazier (supplemental first-round), Zack Cozart (2nd round) and Devin Mesoraco (1st round) all went on to become productive players in Cincinnati.
  • Rockies: 2009 (47.4 bWAR) – The Rockies graduated six players from the 2009 class to the big leagues, although only one proved a smashing success. Finding a player of Nolan Arenado’s caliber in the second round makes for a great draft even if the rest of the players taken underwhelm.

Chris Ellis, Oscar Hernandez Among Cardinals’ Minor League Releases

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Right-hander Chris Ellis and catcher Oscar Hernandez were among the 33 minor leaguers released by the Cardinals in the final week of May, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports (Twitter thread). Right-hander Johnny Hellweg was also cut loose. Jones’ thread has additional names from each level of the Cardinals’ system, though none of the bunch has any MLB experience.

Each of Ellis, Hernandez and Hellweg has had a fleeting look at the Majors. Ellis was a Rule 5 pick of the Royals in 2018 and subsequently tossed one inning in Kansas City last year before being returned to the Cards. The 27-year-old has been moved in a pair of notable trades, going from the Angels to the Braves alongside Sean Newcomb in the Andrelton Simmons swap before being flipped from Atlanta to St. Louis a year later in the Jaime Garcia deal. (The Braves also sent John Gant and Luke Dykstra to the Cards in that deal.) Ellis had a nice year between Double-A and Triple-A in 2018, but he was rocked for a 7.18 ERA in 79 Triple-A frames in 2019.

Hernandez himself was once a top pick in the Rule 5 Draft, going from the Rays to the D-backs in 2014. He appeared in 22 games with Arizona but hit just .167/.239/.262 in 47 plate appearances. Now 26 years old, Hernandez signed a minor league deal with an invite to big league camp this winter. Despite a solid defensive reputation, he’s managed just a .210/.279/.336 slash in parts of three Triple-A campaigns.

Hellweg, 31, was once a rather well-regarded prospect himself. Originally a 16th-round pick by the Angels (2008), he was in the midst of a solid 2012 campaign at the Double-A level when the Halos flipped him, Jean Segura and Ariel Pena to the Brewers to rent ace Zack Greinke. He was hit hard in 30 2/3 frames with the Brewers and hasn’t pitched in the Majors since the 2013 season. Since then, he’s spent time with the Padres and the Pirates in addition to stints in the independent Canadian-American Association and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Like Hernandez, he’d inked a minor league deal with the Cards this winter.

Did The Cardinals Get A Steal In Matthew Liberatore?

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  • The January swap with the Rays that saw the Cardinals acquire left-hander Matthew Liberatore “could be a monster trade” for the Redbirds, an American League scout tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  “There is a small clutch of the best pitching prospects in the minors, and I don’t think you could find 10 better than Liberatore,” the scout said, reinforcing the belief that the Cards have quickly been able to reload its young pitching depth (and its left-handed depth, specifically, as Liberatore and 2019 first-rounder Zack Thompson are both southpaws).  The full trade saw St. Louis and Tampa swap draft picks in Competitive Balance Rounds A and B — the Cards got the lower of the two selections — and exchange Liberatore and minor league catcher Edgardo Rodriguez for Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena.  Since Martinez and Arozarena were both somewhat blocked in the crowded Cardinals’ depth chart, moving them for a very promising young starter indeed looks like a shrewd move for St. Louis, as the Cards lost little from their big league roster.

Latest News, Notes On Minor League Pay

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The manner in which teams are — or, in some cases, aren’t — continuing to pay their minor league players has drawn increased attention as the end of the month draws near. Major League teams agreed back in March to pay minor league players $400 per week through the end of May, but most minor league players now face ongoing financial uncertainty. The Dodgers have already committed to continue that $400 weekly stipend through the end of June, but veteran left-hander David Price is stepping up to add a helping hand, pledging $1,000 to each non-40-man Dodgers minor leaguer, according to a report from Francys Romero (Twitter link). That includes more than 220 minor leaguers, per MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo. It’s a similar gesture to the one Shin-Shoo Choo made with the Rangers back in April.

Of course, the very fact that veterans such as Choo and Price even feel it necessary to step up to help out minor leaguers speaks to the manner in which minor league players are under-compensated. While some clubs — the Marlins and Padres — are reportedly set to pay out that $400 weekly stipend through the end of the minor league season, the Athletics are cutting off the stipend at month’s end. Others have extended the stipend through June but have not committed further.

Here’s how a few other clubs are handling the matter…

  • The Mets, Rays, Brewers, Cardinals, Giants and Indians are all extending the $400 weekly stipend through the month of June, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (tweet), the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak (tweet), the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (tweet) and Kyle Glaser of Baseball America (tweet). “This money right now, especially for guys who aren’t as well off, this is a huge deal,” Rays minor league catcher Chris Betts tells Topkin. “…I’m beyond excited about it, and I’m honestly just more stoked and proud that the organization I play for took this route more than anything.”
  • The Athletics have, unsurprisingly, drawn a wide array of harsh criticism for their wide-ranging furlough and the full cutoff of minor league payment, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. Slusser notes that owner John Fisher repeatedly used the word “family” in his letter to fans explaining the cutbacks, but many impacted by the cuts don’t feel the effects of that word. “It’s very hard to preach family and then not act like it when times are difficult,” Class-A pitcher Aiden McIntyre tells Slusser. Triple-A outfielder Jason Krizan added: “…[I]t hurts to see the Marlins continue to pay their players when they made the least in baseball last year,” though he noted he’d rather remain an Athletic and receive benefits than otherwise. Other players, past and present, voiced similar criticisms to Slusser, as did a big league agent and an executive with another club. Sports Illustrated’s Stephanie Apstein writes that termination of the stipend saves the Athletics an approximate $1.3MM.

Which 15 Players Should The Cardinals Protect In An Expansion Draft?

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In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR – just for the fun of it!  Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams.  You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.

The American League results are in!  Click here to see who’s protected and who’s available for each AL team.

So far, we’ve covered the Pirates, Brewers, Reds, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, Angels, Astros, Twins, Royals, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles.  The Cardinals are up next.

First, we’ll remove free agents Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Matt Wieters, Brett Cecil, and Brad Miller from consideration.  Andrew Miller has a $12MM club option for 2021, and we’ll consider him a free agent for this exercise.  In the case of Kolten Wong and his $12.5MM club option, we’ll assume the Cardinals exercise it and protect him.  Outfield prospect Dylan Carlson will be protected out of the gate given his 2020 ETA.  Paul Goldschmidt, Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter, and Miles Mikolas will be protected due to their no-trade clauses.  Here’s the full list of 11 players we’ll lock down right out of the gate:

Paul Goldschmidt
Dexter Fowler
Matt Carpenter
Miles Mikolas
Dylan Carlson
Jack Flaherty
Paul DeJong
Tommy Edman
Dakota Hudson
Giovanny Gallegos
Kolten Wong

That leaves four spots for the following 19 players.  Be sure to check out their contract statuses and team control here.

Harrison Bader
John Brebbia
Genesis Cabrera
Austin Dean
Junior Fernandez
John Gant
Ryan Helsley
Jordan Hicks
Kwang Hyun Kim
Andrew Knizner
Carlos Martinez
Tyler O’Neill
Daniel Ponce de Leon
Rangel Ravelo
Alex Reyes
Edmundo Sosa
Lane Thomas
Tyler Webb
Justin Williams

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly four players you think the Cardinals should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft.  Click here to view the results.

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