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Cardinals Will Not Make Qualifying Offer To Brandon Moss

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The Cardinals won’t be extending a qualifying offer to first baseman/outfielder Brandon Moss, reports ESPN’s Mark Saxon. Notably, Saxon adds that the lack of a QO “effectively [ends]” Moss’ tenure with the Cardinals, seemingly indicating that the team isn’t currently planning on making a run at re-signing him.

The 33-year-old Moss at one point looked to be a borderline candidate to receive a QO, but his production tanked in September, as he finished the year in a dreadful 10-for-106 free fall. Prior to that awful stretch, Moss was sporting a hefty .277/.344/.586 line on the year and had crushed 25 homers in just 346 trips to the plate. That tremendous show of power prompted MLBTR’s Jeff Todd to call it an “open question” as to whether Moss would receive the QO back in early September.

While it indeed seemed possible at that juncture, Moss will now enter the open market with a cumulative .225/.300/.484 slash line to show for his 2016 efforts. While that still represents a productive overall season, particularly in the power department, it does seem fair to suggest that Moss’ late cold spell has potentially cost him tens of millions of dollars. It’s not much of a silver lining, but the September swoon will at least allow Moss to enter the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation.

Moss will be one of a number of left-handed hitting first base/DH types on this year’s free-agent market, as he’ll join Pedro Alvarez, Adam Lind, Logan Morrison, Mitch Moreland and Ryan Howard. However, unlike those peers, Moss is capable of playing in the corner outfield and as highly productive for much of the season before his sudden decline, probably making him the most desirable of the bunch. Even if he doesn’t sign somewhere to log everyday at-bats, he could still rotate between first base, corner outfield and DH enough to receive 400 to 500 plate appearances somewhere next season, assuming he remains healthy.

Cardinals Extend Mike Matheny Through 2020

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The Cardinals and manager Mike Matheny have agreed to a three-year contract extension that runs through the 2020 season, the team announced.

Matheny was previously in danger of entering the 2017 campaign as a lame duck, though owner Bill DeWitt Jr. gave the 46-year-old a vote of confidence in late September.

“Mike’s done a really good job for us,” said DeWitt. “There’s no thought that we’re going to go in any different direction.”

In terms of wins and losses, the five-year Matheny era has been a productive one for the Cardinals, who have finished with no fewer than 86 victories in any individual season and have made the playoffs four times. Overall, the club has gone 461-349 in the regular season under Matheny, whose crowning playoff achievement is a National League pennant in 2013. St. Louis missed the postseason this year, but general manager John Mozeliak doesn’t blame Matheny for that.

“Mike takes a lot of heat, and I’ve defended him and I will continue to,” Mozeliak said late in the regular season. “I really feel like some of the things that we’re dealing with aren’t fair to put on the manager.”

While Matheny has indeed taken heat from outside the Cardinals organization, it’s clear the team’s front office values the job he has done as the manager. If Matheny sees his extension through, it’ll give him 14 combined years with the franchise as a player and manager. The longtime major league catcher was the Cardinals’ primary backstop from 2000-2004.

Manfred: No Deadline On Cardinals Investigation

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  • Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that commissioner Rob Manfred would not commit to any type of deadline regarding MLB’s investigation into the Cardinals’ unauthorized accessing of the Astros’ proprietary computer network, Ground Control. Manfred reiterated that the goal of the investigation is to be as thorough as possible and called the process “ongoing” but declined further comment. As Goold notes, though, the Cardinals are entering the offseason under the impression that they’ll be able to conduct business as usual. Nonetheless, it seems inevitable that the Cards will face some degree of penalization, with the loss of draft picks and/or significant international signing restrictions among the speculated means of league-imposed discipline.

Significant Rotation Upgrade Unlikely For Cardinals

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  • MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tackles a number of offseason questions in her latest Cardinals inbox piece, noting that despite a lackluster performance from the pitching staff this season, a significant addition seems unlikely. The free-agent market is, as has been well-documented, stunningly thin in terms of quality arms. And as far as the trade market is concerned, the team likely feels satisfied enough with its depth that it won’t feel compelled to meet the escalated asking prices that will perpetuate the trade market for rotation help. Langosch also looks at how the Cards stack up with the Rockies in potential trades and again emphasizes that the team is likely to focus on upgrading its up-the-middle defense this winter.

Indians Notes: Santana, Kluber, Miller, Lucroy

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The Indians are at least opening the door to the possibility of utilizing Carlos Santana in left field when the World Series moves to Wrigley Field and takes the DH off of the table, as Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports. It doesn’t seem as if there are any clear plans to play him there — he hasn’t roamed the outfield grass since the minors — but the team is getting him some reps just in case. Even if Cleveland won’t start Santana in left just in order to get his and Mike Napoli’s bats into the same lineup, it’s not impossible to imagine a late-game substitution scenario that calls for such a bold move.

Here’s more from Cleveland with the fall classic set to get underway:

  • How exactly did World Series Game 1 starter Corey Kluber end up with the Indians? Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch compiles something of an oral history of the 2010 trade that brought the relatively unknown righty to Cleveland. With the Padres and Cardinals each looking for veteran assets, the Indians were able to facilitate their needs by taking Kluber. Then-Cleveland GM Chris Antonetti said at the time that he preferred not to be on the prospect end of such trades, though certainly that move helped set up the team’s current run — which included a deal that sent young talent out for the player who’s the subject of the next bullet.
  • We’ve increasingly heard chatter — as is typical this time of year — about how postseason teams can serve as a model for other organizations in the ensuing winter. While I’d argue that the value of premium relief arms seems worth paying attention to, it does seem curious to hear discussion of whether teams could look to emulate the specific pen usage of roving Indians out-machine Andrew Miller. That approach isn’t likely to carry over into the regular season, Russell Carleton of Baseball Prospectus suggests (subscription required — and recommended) in a detailed and interesting analysis. Relievers are simply not as effective when they re-appear for a second inning of work, Carleton finds, and managers rightly need to be more judicious in deploying their most valuable relief-pitching-innings — those handled by their best relievers — over the course of a long season. Unless and until some team decides to really push the boundaries of how much of an innings workload a reliever can handle, he says, we’ll likely continue to see a lot of one-inning relievers in relatively well-defined roles (for the bulk of the year, at least).
  • When the Indians went and got Miller, it sent a meaningful message to the team’s players, second baseman Jason Kipnis tells MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (Twitter link). But it came at a real price that could end up hurting down the line — as is the nature of deadline deals (see Kluber, Corey). Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports that Cleveland offered much more than any other team to grab Miller. But that was what it took to pry him loose, since the Yankees were under no obligation to swing a deal for a player with two more seasons of control remaining. With the Giants unwilling to move Joe Panik and the Nationals not interested in boosting their offer of young pitching talent, New York would’ve held pat had the Indians not offered up a prospect package made up of outfielder Clint Frazier, southpaw Justus Sheffield, and right-handers Ben Heller and J.P. Feyereisen.
  • Before getting that deal done, of course, the Indians had a pact in place for catcher Jonathan Lucroy that only fell through when he exercised his no-trade protection to nix it. As ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports, Lucroy doesn’t regret utilizing the clause — even with the Indians now in the World Series. The veteran receiver landed in a good spot, helping the Rangers lock up an AL West title, and he’s not interested in revisiting things now. “I’m not worried about it at all,” he said. “It’s over with and in the past.”

Could Cardinals Have Their Own Andrew Miller On Hand?

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  • Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch takes a long look at the question of whether the Cardinals can mimic some of the Indians’ success in finding a top-notch relief pitcher to throw in a flexible capacity, as Andrew Miller has done for Cleveland. Goold wonders whether either Trevor Rosenthal or Michael Wacha might be positioned to function in the role that he dubs the “fixer.”

Borderline Club Options On Starting Pitchers

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By now, everyone who follows free agency in baseball should be keenly aware that the offseason market for free-agent starting pitching is arguably the worst in history. This winter’s top names will include a 36-year-old that was pitching in independent ball last season (Rich Hill), a former Rookie of the Year that was moved last winter in what amounted to a salary dump (Jeremy Hellickson) and a 30-year-old that opened the season in a long-relief role before a stunning transformation following a trade to the Pirates (Ivan Nova). That’s a far cry from the 2015-16 offseason, when David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake each reeled in contracts of at least five years in length and at least $80MM in total value.

The paucity of not only top-tier starting pitchers but simply reliable arms that can be plugged into the middle or back of a rotation on this year’s open market has an impact not only on teams looking for starting pitching, but teams with decisions to make regarding club options on starters that, frankly, didn’t do a lot to justify the salaries that are included in those options in 2016.

The Rangers, for instance, hold an $11MM option with a $1MM buyout over left-hander Derek Holland. For a pitcher whose ERA has come in just shy of 5.00 over the past two seasons and has averaged just 68 innings per year dating back to 2014, an $11MM salary seems steep, to say the least. Holland, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News points out in examining his option case, has had two shoulder injuries and a major knee injury in the past three years and has scarcely been able to take the mound at all. The Derek Holland that pitched 213 innings with a 3.42 ERA for the 2013 Rangers probably feels like a distant memory for Rangers fans.

However, it’s also worth considering that even a bounceback candidate like Doug Fister received a one-year, $7MM deal last winter, while Mike Pelfrey pulled in two years and $16MM coming off a dreadful three-year run with the Twins. The Rangers owe Holland $1MM one way or the other, by virtue of the buyout on his option, so they effectively have to determine whether he’s worth investing an additional $10MM. Given the dearth of quality options this offseason, it’s not unthinkable that even rebound candidates will command numbers not that far off from that level. Edinson Volquez and Andrew Cashner, for instance, will probably both receive fairly notable contracts despite coming off of poor seasons. And while each has a better recent track record of health, neither delivered demonstrably better bottom-line results than Holland (who is also three years younger than Volquez). The Royals are effectively deciding that Volquez isn’t worth offering another $7MM by reportedly planning to buy out his $10MM mutual option for $3MM, but that certainly doesn’t mean that he won’t find a taker at or above that $7MM rate on an open market that is devoid of talented arms. In fact, I’d wager that he will top that $7MM mark and come out ahead of the $10MM he’d have earned via that mutual option.

The same logic can be applied to the options held by the Cardinals over Jaime Garcia ($12MM with a $500K buyout) and Clay Buchholz with the Red Sox ($13.5MM with a $500K buyout). An $11.5MM net investment in Garcia, who logged a 4.67 ERA in 171 2/3 innings this year and has his own history of durability issues, might seem steep to some, but a 30-year-old left-hander with a decent track record that finished the year healthy would probably command a multi-year deal in the upcoming market. If anything, his agents may be hoping that the Cardinals elect to decline the option option, but the context of the free-agent market suggests that there’s some value in that one-year commitment, even if the team explores the option of trading him after exercising the option.

Buchholz’s option may look even more daunting, as investing $13MM more into a pitcher that lost his rotation spot and finished the year with a 4.78 ERA and lackluster peripherals absolutely feels like an overpay. But Buchholz pitched more effectively in 28 2/3 innings after returning to the rotation in September, and he’s only a season removed from a 3.26 ERA that came with outstanding peripherals. While he’s been one of the more mercurial arms in the league over the past half-decade, the type of upside he brings on a one-year commitment is greater than that of most other options on the free-agent market. As is the case with Garcia, a multi-year pact could be attainable if he were to reach the open market (remember, again, that Pelfrey found two years last winter coming off not just a poor season but a poor three years and has never matched the success of Buchholz’s best years).

None of the three players in question here enjoyed a particularly good season, but each at least finished the year healthy enough to take the ball and has enjoyed quality results in the past. Even if their current teams feel that there’s no fit on the 2017 roster for a pitcher with these levels of question marks, it still makes sense to exercise the options and explore the trade market. Even if the Rangers, for instance, include $4MM to trade Holland elsewhere in exchange for a minor leaguer or two, they’re effectively purchasing those prospects for $3MM. It’s far from a lock that these options will be exercised, of course, and it’s worth also mentioning the likes of Gio Gonzalez and Jason Hammel, who seem like easier calls but wilted in the final month of the season in this discussion as well. From where I stand, so long as a pitcher finished the season in a reasonable state of health, committing to a one-year deal at a not-backbreaking rate given the market alternatives and the number of rival clubs that figure to be on the hunt for rotation help is the right call.

Gordon On Cardinals' Bullpen Needs

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  • A lack of bullpen depth proved to be a glaring deficiency for the Cardinals this season and must be addressed by general manager John Mozeliak over the winter, opines Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Gordon points out that with Carlos Martinez, Adam Wainwright, Mike Leake, Alex Reyes, a returning Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia (whose option seems likely to be picked up) all in the rotation picture, the rotation looks to have good depth (though further depth could be added on minor league pacts or small deals this winter), but the ’pen took hits with the loss of Zach Duke and Seth Maness to Tommy John surgery. Potential replacements for Duke like Tyler Lyons and Marco Gonzales battled injuries this season, and Trevor Rosenthal’s inconsistencies and injury problems render him a question mark as well. Gordon calls for multiple arms capable of pitching high-leverage innings and makes his case that said relievers should be a focal point in the Cardinals’ mission to improve their run-prevention skills this winter.

Cardinals Rumors: Center Field, Rotation, Bullpen, Moss, Wong

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Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tackled questions from a number of fans earlier today and addressed a wide number of topics pertaining to the team’s offseason. First and foremost, Goold reports that he’s heard “more and more… how the Cardinals see trade opportunities as their preference” in their search for a center fielder. Specifically, he mentions Charlie Blackmon and Adam Eaton as speculative possibilities, though it personally strikes me unlikely that the Sox would deal Eaton. Blackmon has been an oft-rumored trade candidate over the past few seasons and will be again this winter with a projected arbitration salary of $9MM and a surplus of left-handed outfield bats in Colorado (Blackmon, David Dahl, Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra). Regarding Dexter Fowler, Goold notes that the Cardinals typically shy away from committing lengthy free-agent contracts to players on the wrong side of 30, downplaying the team’s potential interest.

More from Goold’s Cardinals rundown…

  • Goold characterizes a significant investment into a starting pitcher as unlikely, noting that last winter’s pursuit of David Price was considered by the team to be a “special situation.” That type of opportunity isn’t present on this year’s free-agent market, though he does note that the Cardinals would consider Chris Sale a similarly “special” situation if he were to be made available on the trade market. That’s far from a guarantee, of course, as the White Sox could opt to take aim at contending once again in 2017.
  • The Cardinals will be without left-hander Zach Duke for all of the 2017 season due to his recent Tommy John surgery, and Goold rattles off a number of internal replacements without making mention of the team potentially pursuing outside help. Among the candidates are Tyler Lyons, Marco Gonzales and “sleeper picks” Corey Littrell and Ryan Sherriff, each of whom is currently pitching in the Arizona Fall League.
  • St. Louis will pursue other options early in the offseason as opposed to exploring a reunion with Brandon Moss, per Goold. If the team is unable to acquire a center field upgrade and Moss lingers on the free-agent market, a fallback would be signing Moss to play left field and keeping Randal Grichuk in center field.
  • Despite a midseason demotion to Triple-A Memphis for Kolten Wong, the St. Louis front office remains “bullish” on the 26-year-old and would like to see him get a prolonged look at second base in 2017. According to Goold, there’s long been a separation between the front office and the manager when it comes to dividing playing time, but there was an agreement in place late in the season that Mike Matheny would give Grichuk an extended look in center field down the stretch. Wong could be the beneficiary of that same extended stint despite his disappointing April and May in 2016. For what it’s worth, Wong did hit .251/.341/.401 in 217 plate appearances following his recall from Triple-A.

Rule 5 Roundup

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We’re just a few months away from this winter’s Rule 5 draft, so it makes sense to take a look back and see how things shook out from the 2015 selections. Several organizations found useful players, even if the most recent class didn’t include an Odubel Herrera-esque breakout sensation. Some of the most recent draftees have probably locked up MLB jobs again for 2017, though others who stuck on a major league roster all year may head back to the minors for further development. (Once a player’s permanent control rights have been secured, his new organization is free to utilize optional assignments as usual for future years.)

Here’s a roundup of the 2015 draft class with the 2016 season in the books:

Keepers

  • Tyler Goeddel, OF, kept by Phillies from Rays: The 23-year-old struggled with the aggressive move to the big leagues, carrying a .192/.258/.291 batting line in 234 trips to the plate, but showed enough for the rebuilding Phillies to hold onto him all year long.
  • Luis Perdomo, RHP, kept by Padres (via Rockies) from Cardinals: It didn’t look good early for Perdomo, but he showed better after moving to the rotation and ended with a rather promising 4.85 ERA over twenty starts. Though he struggled to contain the long ball, and only struck out 6.4 per nine, Perdomo sported a nifty 59.0% groundball rate on the year.
  • Joey Rickard, OF, kept by Orioles from Rays: After opening the year with a bang, Rickard faded to a .268/.319/.377 batting line on the year but held his roster spot in Baltimore. He ended the season on the DL with a thumb injury, though, and may end up at Triple-A for some added seasoning.
  • Joe Biagini, RHP, kept by Blue Jays from Giants: The only Rule 5 pick to appear in the postseason, Biagini was a great find for Toronto. He ended with 67 2/3 innings of 3.06 ERA pitching, with 8.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, and now looks like a potential fixture in the Jays’ relief corps.
  • Matthew Bowman, RHP, kept by Cardinals from Mets: Bowman rounds out a trio of impressive relievers. He contributed 67 2/3 innings with a 3.46 ERA and 6.9 BB/9 against 2.7 BB/9 to go with a monster 61.7% groundball rate.

Retained By Other Means

  • Deolis Guerra, RHP, re-signed by Angels (who selected him from Pirates) after being outrighted: Guerra was in an unusual spot since he had previously been outrighted off of the Bucs’ 40-man roster when he was selected, meaning he didn’t need to be offered back. Los Angeles removed him from the major league roster and then brought him back on a minor league deal, ultimately selecting his contract. Though he was later designated and outrighted by the Halos, Guerra again returned and largely thrived at the major league level, contributing 53 1/3 much-needed pen frames with a 3.21 ERA on the back of 6.1 K/9 against just 1.2 BB/9.
  • Jabari Blash, OF, acquired by Padres (who acquired Rule 5 rights from Athletics) from Mariners: Blash’s intriguing tools weren’t quite ready for the majors, but San Diego struck a deal to hold onto him and was surely impressed with his showing at Triple-A. In his 229 plate appearances there, Blash swatted 11 home runs but — more importantly — carried a .415 OBP with a much-improved 66:41 K/BB ratio.
  • Ji-Man Choi, 1B, outrighted by Angels after Orioles declined return: The 25-year-old scuffled in the bigs but was rather impressive at the highest level of the minors, where he walked nearly as often as he struck out and put up a .346/.434/.527 slash with five home runs in 227 plate appearances.

Returned

  • Jake Cave, OF, returned from Reds to Yankees: After failing to crack Cinci’s roster out of camp, Cave impressed at Double-A but slowed at the highest level of the minors (.261/.323/.401 in 354 plate appearances) upon his return to the New York organization.
  • Evan Rutckyj, LHP, returned from Braves to Yankees: Sent back late in camp, the 24-year-old struggled in limited action on the Yanks’ farm after missing most of the season with elbow issues.
  • Josh Martin, RHP, returned from Padres to Indians: In his first attempt at Triple-A, Martin posted 66 frames of 3.55 ERA pitching with 8.2 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9.
  • Daniel Stumpf, LHP, returned from Phillies to Royals: Slowed by a PED suspension, Stumpf was bombed in a brief MLB stint with the Phils but dominated at Double-A upon his return to K.C., posting a 2.11 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 21 1/3 innings.
  • Chris O’Grady, LHP, returned from Reds to Angels: Sent back in late March, O’Grady compiled a 3.48 ERA over 95 2/3 innings in the upper minors, though he performed much better as a Double-A starter than he did as a Triple-A reliever.
  • Zack Jones, RHP, returned from Brewers to Twins: The 25-year-old was out with a shoulder injury for most of the year, and ended up being sent back to Minnesota in late June, but has shown swing-and-miss stuff when healthy.
  • Blake Smith, RHP, returned from Padres to White Sox: Smith ended up making a brief MLB debut upon his return to Chicago, but spend most of the year pitching well at Triple-A Charlotte, where he ran up a 3.53 ERA in 71 1/3 innings with 9.5 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9.
  • Colin Walsh, INF, returned from Brewers to Athletics: After struggling badly in his major league stint with the Brewers, Walsh went to Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate and put up a .259/.384/.388 bating line over 245 plate appearances.
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