Alec Burleson Drawing Trade Interest
The Cardinals are going into the trade deadline as sellers and rival clubs are calling about outfielder Alec Burleson, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
It’s been a disappointing season in St. Louis. Despite coming into the year with competitive aspirations, they currently sport a record of 46-59, with only percentage points separating them from the Pirates and last place in the National League Central. They are 10.5 games out of a Wild Card spot and further back in the division.
President of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitted weeks ago that the club would have to make moves this summer that would improve the club’s chances in 2024. That makes it seem highly likely that impending free agents like Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery and Jordan Hicks will wind up traded for players with more ability to help the Cards in the long-term.
Burleson wouldn’t fit into that category, as he’s on pace to surpass one-year of service time this year, meaning he’s not slated for free agency until after the 2028 campaign. But it’s quite apparent that the Cardinals have an outfield logjam, which will need to be cleared one way or another. The regular playing time is going to Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar and Tyler O’Neill right now, with Burleson and Dylan Carlson also in the mix.
That’s already crowded enough as it is, but it gets worse. Tommy Edman was pushed from shortstop into the outfield by the resurgence of Paul DeJong. He’s currently on the injured list but is beginning a rehab assignment shortly, putting him back in the picture. The Cardinals are expected to move DeJong in the coming days but one of their top prospects, Masyn Winn, is a shortstop currently playing in Triple-A. Whenever he gets an audition at the big league level, Edman could be back on the grass.
Brendan Donovan also got pushed into the outfield this year with Nolan Gorman taking over regular duties at second base. Donovan currently has a flexor tendon injury in his right arm that prevents him from playing the field, limiting him to designated hitter duties for now, but he should be in the outfield mix again at some point.
Given all of those options, it seems like something has to give. It was recently reported that O’Neill is unlikely to be traded, though Goold adds that the Cards are open to it but the proposals have been underwhelming. That’s not surprising given that he’s been posting diminished production while battling injuries in the past two years. In 2021, he hit 34 home runs while slashing .286/.352/.560, stealing 15 bases in the process. But since then, he’s made multiple trips to the injured list and has hit just .234/.312/.385. He returned from the IL over a week ago and Goold adds that the Cards plan to play him as often as possible, both to assess his health and see if he can improve his trade stock. He’s hit a strong .323/.432/.452 since being activated but in just nine games.
If O’Neill can’t get a nice trade return, then perhaps the Cardinals will have to move someone else in order to clear some space. Carlson has already received plenty of interest and could perhaps be the most likely to be moved, but rival clubs are apparently intrigued by Burleson enough to put in some calls.
The 24-year-old Burleson hasn’t hit much in the majors yet, having slashed .230/.284/.370 since first being called up last year. But that’s come in a fairly limited role, as he’s only received 282 plate appearances since being recalled in September of last year. Before getting called up, he was hitting .331/.372/.532 in Triple-A, producing a 137 wRC+. He was generally considered one of the club’s top 10 prospects in recent years on account of that bat.
Though he hasn’t yet broken out at the big league level, perhaps he would have a better chance of doing so on a club with the ability to give him regular playing time. It’s therefore pretty understandable why clubs would put in a call. He’s still a couple of years away from qualifying for arbitration and even further from free agency. That means the Cardinals could certainly hang onto him, but with the aforementioned crowding, perhaps an intriguing offer makes them pull the trigger.
The Cardinals figure to be one of the most interesting teams between now and the August 1 deadline, with plenty of impending free agents who make for logical trade candidates. They also have a cluster of controllable position players and seem likely to move at least one of them between now and Tuesday.
Dodgers Rumors: Verlander, E-Rod, Singer, Keller, Cardinals, Scherzer, Canha, Pham
The Dodgers have already both added and subtracted from their pitching mix prior to the deadline, acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox while also shipping out Noah Syndergaard to the Guardians in exchange for Amed Rosario. Between these moves and the re-acqusition of old friend Enrique Hernandez from the Red Sox, Los Angeles has already checked several boxes on their wishlist with over three days to go until the trade deadline, but more transactions seem likely given the Dodgers’ aggression.
Pitching remains the focus, as while Lynn will theoretically fill one hole, Lynn’s inconsistency and the Dodgers’ relative lack of rotation has put a lot of other hurlers on the team’s radar. According to Jack Harris and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, the Dodgers’ list of targets include Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brady Singer, Mitch Keller, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery. Beyond Verlander, the Dodgers are also looking at a couple of other Mets players to address their outfield needs, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that Tommy Pham and Mark Canha are of interest.
One Met who apparently isn’t under heavy consideration is Max Scherzer, as Harris/Castillo write that “the likelihood…isn’t as strong” of Scherzer heading to Chavez Ravine at another trade deadline. L.A. memorably landed Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals two years ago, but Scherzer was a rental at the time, just two-plus months away from free agency. Scherzer implied yesterday that he would be exercising his $43.333MM player option for 2024, and with the Mets likely to ask for a strong trade return, the uncertainty over that player option makes Scherzer a pricey add both financially (he is also still owed $16MM for the rest of 2023) and from a prospect cost.
Given how aggressive the Dodgers have been, a Scherzer reunion might not be entirely ruled out until either the team makes another pitching move, or until Scherzer is potentially shipped elsewhere. With Verlander, Pham and Canha also apparently under discussion, the Dodgers’ talks with the Mets could go in several directions between now and Tuesday’s 5pm CT deadline.
Similarly, there are plenty of layers to the negotiations between the Dodgers and Cardinals, as Nolan Arenado is yet another star name Los Angeles has explored. In a move akin to that Scherzer/Turner blockbuster of 2021, the Dodgers could aim to land both a major position player and a rental pitcher (either Montgomery or Flaherty) in the same deal. Harris/Castillo note that L.A. might also pursue either Montgomery or Flaherty on their own, should the more complicated machinations of an Arenado deal fall through.
Rodriguez has drawn attention from several other teams as the deadline approaches, and the Tigers left-hander’s status is also impacted by a contractual option. Rodriguez has the ability to opt out of his contract after the season, leaving three years and $49MM on the table in search of a richer and longer-term deal. An opt-out seems like a distinct possibility the way E-Rod has been pitching, yet an injury or a drop in form (with the Tigers or a new team) could certainly still occur post-deadline, leading to a change in his thinking. If this did happen after a trade, a new club could find itself on the books for $49MM of a suddenly distressed asset, which surely factors into the thinking of the Dodgers and any other team considering the southpaw.
Beyond these veteran rental players, the Dodgers are also slightly expanding their perimeters to look at more controllable pitchers. The Pirates have arbitration control on Keller through the 2025 season, while the Royals have Singer arb-controlled through 2026. Keller seems like the longer shot, as Pittsburgh is perhaps only listening to trade offers out of due diligence, and would command a huge prospect return in any deal. While Los Angeles is one of the teams with the prospect depth to perhaps get the Pirates’ attention, it doesn’t seem likely that the Bucs will move Keller anywhere at the deadline or even in the near future, as Pittsburgh may have an eye on fully turning the corner back into contending in 2024.
“No traction toward a deal has materialized” between the Dodgers and Royals, so Singer is probably also not on the move. The former first-rounder has a breakout season in 2022 but has struggled to a 5.46 ERA over 113 2/3 innings this year, albeit with a somewhat more favorable 4.41 SIERA. It is possible that L.A. was looking to buy low on the righty (who turns 27 next week), just in case Kansas City was considering a wider-range rebuild in the wake of its disastrous 2023 season. The Royals are in a tough spot given the lack of production from almost all of their projected cornerstone young players, yet while it isn’t clear what the next step will be for the franchise, it does seem too soon for K.C. to give up on Singer, one of the few members of that group who has had some level of success in the majors.
Returning to Verlander, he would also bring a bit more control than a rental player, as he owed $43.333MM in 2024 and he can earn a $35MM player option for 2025 if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024. It’s a steep price tag for a pitcher who turns 41 in February, as even though Verlander has pitched closer to his vintage form in the last few weeks, he missed time earlier this year due to a teres major strain and was then shaky in his first few starts of 2023.
Perhaps more relevant to August 1, Verlander has a full no-trade clause in his contract, and said earlier this week that “I’m focused on being a Met. I want to win here…Obviously it hasn’t gone according to plan just yet, but I didn’t sign a one-year deal.” Since the Mets have already started to trade veterans and look ahead to 2024, it is possible Verlander might change his mind should a contender make an offer, and there has been a connection between Verlander and Los Angeles in the past. The Dodgers pushed to sign Verlander in free agency last winter, with Harris/Castillo writing that L.A. offered the future Hall-of-Famer two years and $80MM.
Rays, Diamondbacks Showing Interest In Jordan Hicks
The D-Backs and Rays are among the clubs with interest in Cardinals reliever Jordan Hicks, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). The Rangers were tied to the hard-throwing righty this afternoon. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote this afternoon that the Yankees also had some interest in Hicks.
Hicks has seemed a likely trade candidate for a while. He’s an impending free agent on a St. Louis club that is openly turning its attention to 2024. He’s having a good season, posting a 3.67 ERA through 41 2/3 innings and climbing back to a high-leverage role. Hicks offers a rare blend of strikeouts (31.2%) and grounders (58.3%). Even with below-average control, his power arsenal is obviously appealing to clubs.
A few days ago, it seemed as if Hicks might surprisingly come off the market. The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported that his camp was in talks with the Cardinals about a potential multi-year extension. However, Goold reported yesterday those conversations hadn’t gained much traction.
Feinsand suggests an extension hasn’t entirely been ruled out. However, Woo echoed Goold’s reporting this afternoon, writing that talks have stalled and a trade seems probable.
Virtually any team with postseason aspirations this season could be a viable suitor. Even clubs that don’t need back-end bullpen help could add a reliever to the middle innings. Arizona has a stronger need than Tampa Bay on paper. The D-Backs rank 23rd in bullpen ERA (4.57) and 19th in strikeout rate (23.2%). The Rays are seventh in ERA (3.74) and 26th in strikeout percentage (22.1%). The Rays’ overall bullpen numbers are dragged down a bit by how often they rely on relievers and bulk pitchers following openers. Only the A’s and Giants have used their bullpen for more innings, which will naturally weigh down their dominance on a rate basis.
Of course, there’s no indication the bidding for Hicks is down to Texas, New York, Arizona and Tampa Bay. The Cardinals’ front office is presumably in conversations with a number of clubs about their trade candidates. Hicks joins Chris Stratton as impending free agent relievers on the St. Louis roster. Starters Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty are also headed to the open market and likely to be dealt this summer. Their markets are mostly unreported, but each of Texas, Arizona and Tampa Bay is also known to be looking for rotation help. Shortstop Paul DeJong figures to move as well.
Those short-term assets — paired with Dylan Carlson, who has gotten increasingly squeezed out of the outfield picture — have seemed St. Louis’ most likely trade pieces. Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman have drawn interest from other clubs, but Woo unsurprisingly writes the Cardinals aren’t interested in trading them. That’s also true of power-hitting second baseman Nolan Gorman, who has five seasons of club control beyond this one.
Rangers Pursuing Jordan Hicks
The Cardinals have been hopeful of working out an extension with closer Jordan Hicks, but as of yesterday, talks had failed to progress. There’s no indication yet that the Cardinals feel an extension decidedly will not be reached, but while the situation remains unresolved, the Rangers have been angling to hammer out a trade bringing Hicks to Texas, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
MLB.com’s Jon Morosi recently reported that the Rangers have been exploring trades that could simultaneously address both their rotation and bullpen needs; speculatively speaking, the Cardinals could be a match in such a deal, with both Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty expected to be traded between now and Tuesday’s deadline. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News offered a similar report this morning, noting that Texas could look to do the bulk of its shopping in one trade. Grant echoes prior reports that Texas has talked to the White Sox about Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly, and he further adds that the Rangers have some degree of interest in Sox relievers Keynan Middleton, Kendall Graveman and Aaron Bummer.
Hicks would be the second power arm added to the Texas bullpen in the past month. The Rangers jumped the relief market and kicked off the summer trade season by acquiring Aroldis Chapman from the Royals in late June, and it’s been well documented that they’re still looking for bullpen reinforcements.
Hicks, a free agent at season’s end despite still being just 26 years old, would fill that need in spades. He’s shaken off a rocky start to the season and been one of the most dominant bullpen arms in the sport dating back to early May. In his past 28 2/3 frames, the flamethrowing righty has pitched to a 1.88 ERA with a 31.4% strikeout rate, an 8.5% walk rate and a mammoth 66.7% ground-ball rate — all while averaging a blistering 100.6 mph on his sinker. He’s doing so while playing on a modest $1.8375MM salary agreed upon over the winter to avoid arbitration in his final season of eligibility.
Overall, Hicks currently sports a 3.67 ERA in 41 2/3 innings, though fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.02) and SIERA (3.40) are a bit more bullish. Command has long been an issue for Hicks, but after walking nearly 20% of his opponents through May 7, he’s since sporting that previously mentioned 8.5% rate — roughly in line with the league average.
Durability has been the other primary knock on Hicks. Since debuting as a 21-year-old back in 2018, he’s pitched just 219 1/3 big league innings. A 2019 UCL tear ended that season in June and sidelined him for the entire 2020 campaign, and Hicks has also spent time on the injured list due to inflammation in that surgically repaired elbow, a flexor strain in his right arm, and neck spasms. The 77 2/3 innings he pitched as a rookie still represent a career-high, and the 40 appearances he’s made this season already mark the second-highest total of his career, next to that rookie campaign.
Hicks has avoided the injured list this season and generally been able to take the ball whenever the Cards have needed, however. He’s frequently worked back-to-back days and pitched on three consecutive days as recently as mid-June. He’s seen a modest dip in his velocity of late, “only” averaging 99.6 mph on his sinker over his past six appearances, though that includes a 100.4 mph average in his most recent appearance.
As for the White Sox group, any would add a talented arm to the back of the Texas ‘pen. I took a look at Middleton’s quiet resurgence earlier this month, although he’s been scuffling of late — with a dozen runs allowed in his past 14 innings. He’s still carrying a 3.82 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate this year while averaging nearly 96 mph on his heater (and playing on a low-cost deal). Graveman, signed through 2024 on a deal that pays him $8MM annually, has a 3.48 ERA with a roughly average 22.6% strikeout rate and an elevated 10.6% walk rate. His typically excellent ground-ball rate has wilted to a below-average 39.4% in 2023. Bummer has struggled to an ERA north of 6.00 but still has excellent strikeout and grounder rates on the year, with a lofty BABIP and unusually low strand rate contributing to his struggles (as I explored in a bit more detail yesterday).
Giants Have Shown Interest In Paul DeJong, Nicky Lopez
The Giants are known to be in search of middle infield help. Two names under consideration: Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong and Royals second baseman Nicky Lopez, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
DeJong seems very likely to be dealt within the next few days. The Cards are preparing to move a number of short-term pieces as they regroup for 2024. DeJong is in the final guaranteed season of his contract; the club holds a $12.5MM option for next season but seems unlikely to exercise it.
After a pair of dismal offensive seasons, DeJong has had something of a return to form in 2023. The right-handed hitter owns a .237/.303/.422 line over 297 plate appearances. He’s striking out at a lofty 29% clip but has connected on 13 home runs in roughly half a season of playing time.
That’s exactly league average offense by measure of wRC+. The scope of the production could lend itself particularly well to more matchup usage. DeJong entered play tonight hitting only .227/.279/.411 against same-handed pitching, but he’s teed off on lefties at a .274/.378/.468 clip.
The Giants are as aggressive as any team in leveraging platoon matchups. They haven’t had to do so at shortstop in recent years. Brandon Crawford has had a hold on the everyday job there. Yet the lefty-swinging Crawford is hitting only .207/.285/.333 in 65 contests this season. He’s not hitting well against pitchers of either handedness. He also landed on the injured list with left knee inflammation 10 days ago, his second IL stint of the year.
Crawford joined Thairo Estrada on the shelf. San Francisco’s second baseman has been down for three weeks after breaking his hand on a hit-by-pitch. Estrada recently began baseball activities and could make it back before too long, but the Giants are presently relying on a rookie rotation of Brett Wisely, Marco Luciano and Casey Schmitt up the middle without much success.
DeJong would bring above-average shortstop defense and some pop against left-handed pitching. Lopez would strictly be a defensive target. The lefty-swinging infielder hasn’t hit a home run in two years and carries a .223/.292/.276 batting line since the start of 2022. Yet he has drawn strong marks for his second base defense and is capable of manning shortstop or third base effectively as well.
Lopez would be easier to accommodate financially. The 28-year-old is playing this season on a $3.7MM arbitration salary, around $1.3MM of which is still to be paid out. He’s controllable for another two years after this but seems to be trending towards a non-tender. DeJong is making $9MM this year and still due around $3.2MM in salary, plus a $2MM buyout on next year’s option.
Both Kansas City and St. Louis have alternatives who could take on a larger middle infield role if they were to push across a deal with San Francisco. The Royals have already curtailed Lopez’s playing time in favor of a longer look at Michael Massey. DeJong is playing every day in St. Louis, but the Cards have Tommy Edman as a potential immediate replacement and top shortstop prospect Masyn Winn in Triple-A.
St. Louis also has depth on the other side of the second base bag. Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman are quality bat-first second basemen with extended control windows. With that middle infield strength in mind, Feinsand writes that St. Louis has also gotten interest from various clubs (not necessarily San Francisco) on Donovan and Edman.
Of course, the asking price on Edman or Donovan would be far higher. They’re a lot less likely to move than DeJong. Not only do they have extended control windows (Edman through 2025, Donovan past ’28), neither is fully healthy right now.
Edman is on the injured list with wrist inflammation. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat relayed this afternoon (on Twitter) that he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint over the weekend. Donovan is healthy enough to hit but playing through a flexor tendon injury in his right arm. He’s unable to throw and relegated to DH duty for now. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote earlier in the week that Donovan was hoping to avoid surgery and return to defensive work at some point this season. Even if that proves to be the case, he wouldn’t be a middle infield option for anyone in the immediate future.
Dodgers Have Discussed Nolan Arenado Trade With Cardinals
The Dodgers have engaged the Cardinals in trade talks for Nolan Arenado, reports Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. The third baseman has a full no-trade clause but Castillo reports that Arenado, a Southern California native, is willing to waive that right only if it means going to the Dodgers. It’s unclear if those talks made any progress or if a deal is close but the Cardinals are under no obligation to move Arenado, since he has four more years on his contract and they plan on contending again next year, but the Dodgers do have young pitching that they need. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays word from Arenado’s agent Joel Wolfe, who says that the report Arenado is only willing to waive his no-trade for the Dodgers is “inaccurate.”
It’s hardly surprising that the Dodgers would be interested in Arenado, who has been one of the game’s premier players for quite some time. He’s launched 321 home runs in his career and has produced a batting line of .288/.345/.534 for a wRC+ of 122, dating back to his 2013 debut. He’s done that while providing elite defense at the hot corner, having racked up 151 Defensive Runs Saved in his career, as well as 90 Outs Above Average and a 73.7 grade from Ultimate Zone Rating. He already has a career tally of 48.3 wins above replacement from FanGraphs and 54.1 from Baseball Reference.
The Cardinals are having a disappointing season, having fallen to 46-57 and 9.5 games back of a playoff spot. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitted a couple of weeks ago that the club would have to make moves aimed at improving the 2024 club. However, he also maintained that moving a key player like Arenado or Paul Goldschmidt wasn’t in their plans. “I don’t have any intentions of trading anybody like them,” he said, before leaving the door open to an offer that could change his mind. “If you’re willing to listen on anything, you have to understand (anything’s possible), but I doubt that would happen.”
To be clear, the Dodgers having interest in Arenado doesn’t mean the Cards are under any obligation to make a deal. As Mozeliak mentioned, they are willing to listen on anything. All indications have pointed to the Cardinals planning on moving short-term pieces and reloading for 2024 around a similar position player core but with a retooled pitching staff. Perhaps the Dodgers have enough young pitching talent to make a deal happen, but that’s still not clear at this point.
The Dodgers are 58-43, holding a three-game lead in the West and are clearly in buyer position. They’ve already added a couple of complementary pieces in Enrique Hernández and Amed Rosario but a big push for Arenado would obviously be a move in a different stratosphere.
The club has used players like Max Muncy and Chris Taylor at third base for much of this year, though both players are also capable of playing other positions and Castillo reports it’s possible that one or both of them could end up going to St. Louis in the potential deal. Muncy has long been a three-true-outcomes leader, hitting plenty of home runs while frequently walking and striking out. He’s continuing that this year, hitting 25 home runs while slashing .197/.329/.478 for a wRC+ of 118. However, he’s more of a bat-first option at third, having produced subpar defensive grades this year. The Dodgers hold a club option for his services in 2024 set at $10MM with no buyout.
Taylor spent many years as an above-average hitter who could play just about anywhere on the diamond. He reached free agency after 2021 and re-signed with the Dodgers on a four-year, $60MM contract but has seen his offensive performance slip. He hit .265/.343/.461 from 2017 to 2021 but just .219/.297/.399 since the start of last year. Despite the diminished production, he’s still been able to slot into every position except for first base and the battery. He still has two years and $26MM remaining on his deal after this year.
Arenado would undoubtedly be an upgrade over either of those two players, though the Dodgers would have to part with something to make it happen. The Cardinals have long been known to be in need of long-term starting pitching since Adam Wainwright is set to retire while both Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery are impending free agents and likely to wind up traded in the coming days. Steven Matz is a question mark after getting bumped to the bullpen earlier in the year, only recently retaking a starting job. Depth options like Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Connor Thomas haven’t had great years either, leaving Miles Mikolas as the sole building block in next year’s rotation.
Young and controllable pitching is the something the Dodgers could offer, even some with some major league experience. Multiple injuries to their starting staff this year have forced them up push prospects up to the majors, including Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove. That group would have also included Ryan Pepiot, though he suffered an oblique strain on the verge of Opening Day and has been on the injured list since, only beginning a rehab assignment this month.
Miller, 24, has a 4.28 ERA through 10 starts, striking out 23.2% of hitters while walking 7% and getting grounders at a 45.5% clip. Sheehan, 23, has a 6.75 ERA through his six outings while Grove, 26, is at 6.19 this year. Each of those three and Pepiot were generally considered among the club’s 30 best prospects coming into the season and they all come with years of cheap control. Castillo’s report suggests the Cardinals have interest in all four. Moving them would leave the Dodgers with diminished pitching depth, but perhaps they could patch that over by acquiring veteran rentals for the stretch run, with Clayton Kershaw potentially returning at some point later in the year. The Dodgers reportedly had interest in rental starter Lucas Giolito prior to him being traded to the Angels yesterday, and Castillo’s report speculates they could be interested in getting Flaherty or Montgomery from the Cardinals as well.
The Cardinals surely have some level of interest in each of those, given their dire need for pitching, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re willing to move on from Arenado in order to acquire them. The two sides have long seen committed to each other, with Arenado even forgoing an opt-out opportunity at the end of last season. He likely could have topped the five years and $144MM remaining on his deal but decided to stay in St. Louis instead. He will still have four more years and $109MM left on that deal at the end of this year.
That would be a hefty salary for the Dodgers to take on as they are already over the competitive balance tax and will likely be trying to sign Shohei Ohtani to a record-breaking deal this winter, like many other teams. Perhaps they could balance some of that out by including Muncy or Taylor in the deal, though that would depend how much the Cardinals value those veteran players compared to the younger starters.
Arenado departing St. Louis would leave a hole at third base in St. Louis going forward, though Muncy or Taylor could theoretically help fill that. Leaving those two aside, the Cardinals have many multi-positional players like Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman, who have each played some third this year. Tommy Edman hasn’t played there this year but has in the past. He might be needed at shortstop if Paul DeJong winds up traded this week, though prospect Masyn Winn is in Triple-A and could slot in there in the near future.
It’s worth reiterating that teams often discuss all kinds of trade scenarios and there’s been nothing to suggest anything is close to completion here. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat straight up denies that Arenado is being traded and, as mentioned up top, Arenado’s agent has denied the report about his no-trade clause. The Cardinals and Dodgers make sense as potential trade partners since one has short-term pitching but needs long-term, and the other the opposite. It would be natural for the Dodgers to at least ask about other players in those talks. Mozeliak has said in the past that the Cardinals, despite doing some selling, weren’t looking to move key players like Arenado. He did say they are willing to listen on anything, so perhaps the Dodgers have enough young pitching to make them think about it, but time will tell.
Extension Talks Have Not Progressed Between Cardinals, Jordan Hicks
The Cardinals are going into the deadline looking to make moves that help the 2024 club. That’s likely to involve trading impending free agents like Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery. Though Jordan Hicks is also an impending free agent, it was reported earlier this week that he and the club were discussing an extension, perhaps keeping him in St. Louis. However, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports today that those talks have not progressed and he is garnering trade interest.
Hicks, 26, has long been one of the hardest throwers in the league, averaging north of 100 mph on his fastball since he debuted back in 2018. Oddly, he wasn’t about to translate that velocity into elite strikeout stuff. He came into this season having punched out 23% of batters faced, a mark that’s roughly around typical league averages. He did get grounders at an excellent 61.1% clip but also issued walks to 13.4% of batters. His 4.05 ERA prior to this season was fine but not especially exciting.
This year, he finally seems to have had a breakout. He’s thrown 41 2/3 innings for the season, striking out 31.2% of opponents in the process. His 12.7% walk rate is still on the high side, but he’s also still getting grounders on 58.3% of balls in play. That combination is difficult to come by, as among pitchers with at least a 30% strikeout rate in at least 40 innings this year, only Jhoan Durán of the Twins has a higher ground ball rate. Hicks has a 3.67 ERA for the year but may have deserved better, since his .366 batting average on balls in play is above his career rate and the league average, leading to a 3.02 FIP and 3.40 SIERA. Those results have come with Hicks taking over the closing role while Ryan Helsley is on the injured list, racking up eight saves in the past six weeks.
Since Hicks debuted when he was 21, cracking the Opening Day roster in 2018, he’s now just a few months from qualifying for free agency. He’s in his final year of arbitration, making a salary of $1.838M. The Cardinals are 46-57 and have been outside contention for quite a while now. Since they seem to be more focused on the future than the present, it makes sense to move on from Hicks and exchange him for more controllable players, especially now that extension talks haven’t found much traction.
Just about every contending club can use bullpen upgrades at this time of year, so Hicks should get plenty of interest. His previous track record isn’t as dominant as this season and he’s had some health concerns, including a Tommy John surgery in 2019, but acquiring clubs wouldn’t be making long-term commitments to him. They would simply be hoping to catch lightning in a bottle for a few months to help with a postseason push. The trade deadline is August 1.
Cardinals Release Ryan Tepera
The Cardinals have released right-hander Ryan Tepera, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He was designated for assignment last week and would have had the right to reject an outright assignment, making this a fairly expected development.
Tepera, 35, has a long track record of being an effective reliever. He came into this year with a career earned run average of 3.50 over 361 appearances, striking out 24.5% of opponents while walking 8.8% of them and keeping the ball on the ground at a 43.5% clip. That included the first season of a two-year, $14MM deal he signed with the Angels prior to 2022.
But it’s been a trying season for him here in 2023. He posted a 7.27 ERA through his first 10 appearances with the Angels this year, leading to him getting designated for assignment and then released. He secured a minor league deal with the Rangers and tossed eight scoreless innings in Triple-A, striking out 37.9% of batters faced at that level. He was able to opt out of that deal when the Rangers wouldn’t give him a roster spot, but he got one with the Cardinals. Unfortunately, they bounced him off after just two appearances when Tyler O’Neill came off the injured list.
Tepera will now be free to sign with any club. The Angels are still on the hook for what’s left of his contract, meaning any other team could sign him and pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Halos owe. With the trade deadline a few days away, plenty of clubs will be trading away relievers and likely opening up new jobs. With Tepera’s track record and minimal acquisition cost, it’s possible some club looks to plug him in as a veteran presence.
Cardinals, Jordan Hicks Discussing Extension
The Cardinals are exploring a multi-year contract extension with closer Jordan Hicks, reports Katie Woo of the Athletic. Woo suggests there’s a good chance a deal can be finalized within the next day. An impending free agent, the hard-throwing righty profiles as one of the top bullpen trade candidates this summer. Obviously, an extension in advance of next Tuesday’s trade deadline would take him off the market.
Hicks, 27 in September, is amidst one of the better seasons of his career. He owns a 3.67 ERA across 41 2/3 innings in 40 appearances. He’s striking hitters out at a personal-best 31.2% rate while inducing grounders on a huge 58.2% of batted balls. Hicks and Twins’ star Jhoan Durán are the only relievers (minimum 30 innings) with a strikeout rate north of 30% and a ground-ball rate exceeding 55%.
That outlier combination of whiffs and grounders is built on velocity almost unmatched around the league. Hicks averages an eye-popping 100.5 MPH on the sinker that serves as his go-to offering. Only Durán and Aroldis Chapman throw harder.
Hicks hasn’t found the same level of success that Durán and Chapman have managed at their best, however. The St. Louis hurler has allowed just under four earned runs per nine innings over 219 1/3 career frames. That’s mostly a reflection of well below-average control. He’s walking just under 13% of opponents this season and has dished out free passes at a 13.2% clip for his career.
Various health concerns also undercut him for a while after a promising debut. Hicks combined for just 38 2/3 innings between 2019-21. He underwent Tommy John surgery midway through the ’19 season. Unlikely to return until the tail end of 2020 regardless, Hicks (who has Type 1 diabetes) opted out of playing that year because of COVID-19 concerns. He battled renewed elbow discomfort the next season and was limited to just 10 appearances. He missed a month between May and June last year because of a flexor issue in his forearm but has avoided the injured list this season.
Even with the health history and bouts of wildness, Hicks would be a sensible trade target for contenders seeking bullpen help. He’s a high-octane arm who has stepped back into a high-leverage role for St. Louis, picking up eight saves and six holds. The Cards clearly value him enough to consider keeping him around beyond this season, though it remains to be seen if a deal will get across the finish line. Woo unsurprisingly notes that the 45-56 club would very likely trade Hicks if they don’t reach an extension in the coming days.
To be clear, the dialogue with Hicks’ camp is not a sign that St. Louis is walking back its forthcoming sell off. Woo reiterates that the Cards plan to trade Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this morning. The Cardinals had not had any extension dialogue with Montgomery’s or Flaherty’s camps before the All-Star Break, Woo writes. Both starters are impending free agents.
Montgomery would be a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, so the Cards could at least ensure a compensatory draft choice if he departs as a free agent. They’re likely to receive a more compelling prospect package for one of the top starters available within the next few days, though. Flaherty is less likely to receive the QO (which Hicks also wouldn’t get), so the Cards likely wouldn’t get any compensation if those players were neither traded nor extended.
Additionally, Woo reports that the Cardinals are finding trade interest in each of Chris Stratton, Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley. Stratton is an obvious trade candidate as an impending free agent middle reliever. There’s less urgency to move the latter two arms, as both can stick around beyond this season. Gallegos is under contract for $5.5MM next year, while his deal has a $6.5MM club option for 2025. Helsley is eligible for arbitration through the ’25 season and making a modest $2.15MM this season.
It’s sensible for St. Louis to at least consider offers, although it’d be an odd time to move Helsley. Gallegos has had a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the past five seasons. He carries a 3.92 mark with slightly above-average strikeout and walk numbers in 41 1/3 innings this year.
Helsley, owner of a fastball that sits in the upper 90s, has a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout percentage in 25 frames on the season. He’s been down since June 12 with a forearm strain and was just transferred to the 60-day injured list yesterday, officially ruling him out into the second week of August. Players on the IL can still be traded, so a deal is possible. Still, it stands to reason other clubs will be wary of offering a prospect package commensurate with Helsley’s peak value at a time when there’s notable health uncertainty.
Cardinals Expect To Move DeJong, Several Pitchers; O’Neill Unlikely To Be Traded
The Cardinals’ logjam in the outfield has been well-documented by now, but one path to alleviating that situation apparently isn’t under consideration at this time; Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that the Cardinals plan to hold onto O’Neill at this year’s deadline.
Elsewhere on the roster, the Cards have made clear to other clubs that they expect to trade starters Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty as well as shortstop Paul DeJong, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. Passan adds Jordan Hicks as a possible trade candidate, and it’s only natural that righty Chris Stratton — another potential free agent — would also be on the block.
Moving the 28-year-old O’Neill at this stage would unequivocally be selling low. The two-time Gold Glove winner and eighth-place finisher in 2021 NL MVP voting has played in just 130 games since Opening Day 2022, batting a paltry (by his standards) .229/.309/.381 in 502 plate appearances along the way. It’s a far cry from O’Neill’s mammoth .286/.352/.560 batting line and 34 homers in 2021.
The Cards control O’Neill through the 2024 season, as he’ll be arbitration-eligible for the final time this offseason. Woo quotes both O’Neill and manager Oli Marmol in a piece that Cards fans, in particular, will want to read. Broadly speaking, the organization believes an emphasis on routine and collaborative communication can help O’Neill remain on the field more regularly (though that makes the decision to buck his routine by placing him in center field early in the season seem particularly curious).
O’Neill is one of several outfielders vying for playing time in St. Louis. Lars Nootbaar has become entrenched in center field, and top prospect Jordan Walker is currently patrolling right field. O’Neill’s return pushed former top prospect Dylan Carlson to a bench role, and there’s been ample reporting and speculation on the possibility of a Carlson trade looming on the horizon. First baseman/outfielder and utilitymen extraordinaire Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman also factor into the outfield mix — at times being pushed there by Nolan Gorman‘s presence at second base.
The Cards would also be selling low on Carlson in many ways, though the 24-year-old switch-hitter’s remaining three seasons of club control beyond the current year give him more appeal than O’Neill’s one remaining year. Carlson’s ability to play all three outfield spots — center field, in particular — at a high level could also increase the chances of landing direly needed controllable pitching in a trade. O’Neill certainly isn’t likely to command that type of return on the heels of two injury-plagued seasons; he only just returned from a 60-day IL stint thanks to a back strain.
The likely trades of Montgomery and Flaherty have been discussed ad nauseum by now. Both are free agents at season’s end. Montgomery is the more valuable arm at present, touting a 3.37 ERA, 21.7% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 45.2% grounder rate in 115 innings. He’d be a veritable lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, so the Cardinals figure to insist on greater value than a 2024 compensatory pick in return. He’s being $10.01MM in 2023.
Flaherty looked like a burgeoning ace in 2019 but has seen several recent seasons ruined by injury. He’s been healthy in ’23, pitching 104 2/3 innings of 4.49 ERA ball. His 22.2% strikeout rate is roughly average, but his 11.3% walk rate is a glaring red flag. He’s three years younger than Montgomery and earning roughly half the salary ($5.4MM) in 2023, however.
DeJong’s status as a likely trade target registers as a clear bonus for the Cards. Entering the season, he didn’t even appear like a lock to make the roster, having slashed just .182/.269/.352 in 190 games from 2021-22. But DeJong has enjoyed a rebound season in ’23, hitting .237/.304/.424 (101 wRC+) with his typical brand of plus defense. With about $3.29MM remaining on his contract (plus a $2MM buyout on next year’s $12.5MM option), DeJong now seems affordable and productive enough to be a viable trade candidate — particularly if the Cardinals help out financially in any sense. DeJong’s bat has cooled after a torrid start, but his overall batting line is about league average, he’s shown some power and he’s played good defense.
Both Hicks and Stratton are natural trade candidates, too. Hicks is likely more appealing and costlier to acquire, given his youth and triple-digit heater. The 26-year-old is averaging better than 100 mph on his sinker and has a 1.88 ERA dating back to early May, punching out batters at a gaudy 31.4% of his hitters with an 8.5% walk rate and mammoth 66.7% grounder rate. Stratton, 33 next month, has a 4.38 ERA with better peripheral marks (27% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate, 3.01 FIP, 3.37 SIERA).
In any trade, St. Louis is eyeing near-MLB-ready pitching, Passan adds. That, again, is hardly a surprise and has long been speculated upon, given the team’s lack of rotation clarity beyond the current season. Both Montgomery and Flaherty are free agents. Adam Wainwright is retiring. Steven Matz and Matthew Liberatore have struggled.
Many of the names in question wouldn’t fetch a close-to-the-Majors arm in a straight-up swap, but someone like DeJong or Stratton could potentially be packaged with Flaherty or Hicks to improve the Cards’ return. Either Montgomery or certainly Carlson on his own could feasibly fetch immediate but unproven pitching help — Montgomery’s status as a rental notwithstanding. For instance, the Cards themselves traded away a big league-ready arm last summer when they shipped Johan Oviedo to the division-rival Pirates in order to acquire Stratton and Jose Quintana, who was then a rental player. Oviedo has struggled in July but notched a 4.06 ERA through his first 16 starts and is controllable through the 2027 season.