Orioles Acquire Jack Flaherty From Cardinals
The Orioles have acquired right-hander Jack Flaherty from the Cardinals, per announcements from both clubs. Infielder César Prieto, left-hander Drew Rom and right-hander Zack Showalter are heading the other way.
Flaherty, 27, has seemed like a clear trade candidate for a while now. He’s an impending free agent on a Cardinals club that has struggled all year, currently sporting a record of 47-60 that has them 10 games out of a playoff spot. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitted about three weeks ago that the Cards would have to make moves aimed at improving their chances in 2024. With his impending free agency, Flaherty was one of the obvious pieces to go and recently received interest from clubs such as the Dodgers and Rays.
Not too long ago, Flaherty seemed to be a burgeoning ace in St. Louis. He tossed 151 innings over 28 starts in 2018, allowing 3.34 earned runs per nine innings. He followed that up with an even better showing in 2019, dropping his ERA to 2.75 in 196 1/3 over 33 starts. He struck out 29.9% of batters faced that year while walking just 7.1%, finishing fourth in the voting for National League Cy Young.
But it’s been a different story since then. He struggled in the shortened season by posting a 4.91 ERA in nine starts. The year after, he made multiple trips to the injured list, being sidelined by a left oblique issue and then a right shoulder strain and ultimately tossing 78 1/3 innings that year. Those shoulder issues lingered into 2022 and he was only able to throw 36 innings last year.
With all of those issues, he came into 2023 having only thrown 154 2/3 innings in the previous three years combined. That made him a fairly unknown quantity, but he has settled in somewhere in between his previous ace form and the more recent struggles. He’s stayed healthy all year, having taken the ball 20 times and logging 109 2/3 innings already, but with a 4.43 ERA that’s not terribly exciting. His 21.9% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate are both a few ticks worse than league averages, with his 44.6% ground ball rate only slightly better.
If one wanted to be more charitable, they could look to the fact that his results have gotten better over time, in a sense. He had a 6.29 ERA through the first week of May, thanks in part to a 10-run disaster against the Angels on May 4. Since then, he’s posted a much nicer 3.58 ERA over 75 1/3 innings. Any pitcher’s stats would look better if you removed their worst start, but with Flaherty’s limited workload in the previous three years, perhaps he was still getting into a groove.
The Orioles will seemingly be hoping that the charitable outlook on Flaherty is correct. They have shot up to the top of the American League with a 65-41 record, though mostly on the backs of their position players and bullpen. Their starting rotation has been an obvious weak point, with a collective 4.48 ERA that puts them 16th out of the 30 major league teams. They were connected to various starting pitchers from Justin Verlander, Michael Lorenzen and Shohei Ohtani but the deadline has now passed with Flaherty as their sole rotation upgrade.
The club recently optioned Tyler Wells, leaving them with a rotation of Kyle Gibson, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer and Kyle Bradish, with Flaherty added in. Bradish is the only one of that group with an ERA better than 4.40. They have shown they can win with this group, but it will be an interesting gambit come playoff time, when the front of a club’s rotation tends to become more important.
For the Cardinals, they have added many young players to their system this week by trading away Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Paul DeJong, Génesis Cabrera and Flaherty. In this deal, they will add three more players to their system.
Prieto, 24, broke into the Cuban National Series as a teenager before signing with the Orioles in January of 2022. He split last year between High-A and Double-A, hitting .273/.314/.404 for a wRC+ of 96. This year, he’s hit .349/.393/.475 between Double-A and Triple-A, leading to a 132 wRC+. He’s played all three of the infield positions to the left of first base this year. Baseball America recently ranked him the #14 prospect in the Orioles’ system with FanGraphs putting him at #26.
Rom, 23, has been starting in Triple-A this year with a 5.34 ERA over 86 innings. He’s struck out 25.1% of batters while walking 11.5% and getting grounders at a 47.7% clip. It’s possible his .391 batting average on balls in play is pushing some extra runs across the board, leading to his 4.21 FIP. BA ranked him the #16 prospect in Baltimore’s system with FanGraphs at #30. Showalter, 19, was just drafted in the 11th round last year and has been pitching in the lower levels of Baltimore’s system this year.
For the Cardinals, this trade and the others have allowed them to stockpile some young talent as they look to reload for 2024. For the Orioles, this is their first competitive season since Mike Elias became the general manager in November of 2018. The club has generally been cautious in free agency in that time, having not given out any multi-year deals to free agents. Now their first deadline in buyer position has seen them acquire two rental pitchers in Flaherty and Shintaro Fujinami.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the O’s were close to getting Flaherty. Francys Romero first had Prieto’s involvement. Jeff Passan of ESPN first had Rom while Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com added Showalter.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Brendan Donovan To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery
Cardinals infielder/outfielder Brendan Donovan is set to undergo season-ending surgery tomorrow, per Katie Woo of The Athletic. Donovan has been dealing with a flexor tendon injury in his throwing arm recently, which had prevented him from throwing and relegated him to DH duties. Per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, Donovan should be ready to return from the surgery to correct that flexor strain before Spring Training 2024.
Donovan, 26, immediately made an impression upon making his big league debut with the Cardinals last season. He slashed a strong .281/.394/.379 in 126 games for the club, goo for a wRC+ of 129, while playing quality defense at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. That quality defense and versatility earned him a Gold Glove award last year, and those skills along with his knack for getting on base allowed him to finish third in NL Rookie of the Year award voting.
The 26-year-old utility ace took a slight step back at the plate in his sophomore season as he discipline for additional power. His walk rate dipped from a sterling 12.8% to a more pedestrian 8.9% this season, though his ISO ticked up from just .097 last year up to a more respectable .138 during the current campaign. That increase in power combined with his trademark versatility has allowed him to remain an above-average regular this year, with 2.1 fWAR in 371 trips to the plate.
Unfortunately, Donovan’s 2023 campaign has come to a premature end thanks to the aforementioned flexor strain, an ailment that prevented him from taking the field for nearly the entire month of July. The loss of Donovan for the season further damages the competitiveness of a Cardinals club that has already shipped out Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Chris Stratton, and Paul DeJong out this trade season, with more deals expected before the deadline.
As things stand, the club figures to utilize Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, Tommy Edman, and Nolan Arenado in the infield with Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill, and Dylan Carlson all in the outfield/DH mix, though further trades ahead of the deadline could change that playing time picture.
“No Significant Structural Damage” For Bo Bichette Following Knee Injury
3:11pm: Bichette has “no significant structural damage,” according to manager John Schneider, with Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reporting. According to Nicholson-Smith, an “IL stint hasn’t been ruled out but [the] Jays will play it out for a few days first.” Based on this information, it appears the Blue Jays may have dodged a serious injury to Bichette. Nonetheless, earlier today they acquired Paul DeJong from the Cardinals.
9:45am: The Blue Jays expect to have more information about Bichette’s injury by noon ET, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN. That doesn’t guarantee they’ll publicly divulge anything at that point, but it’ll give them around six hours to search for alternatives if Bichette ends up missing time and the Jays feel it best to seek for help from outside the organization.
8:49am: Blue Jays star shortstop Bo Bichette suffered a right knee injury last night, and his prognosis figures to weigh heavily on the club’s trade deadline plans. In the third inning of the club’s eventual loss to Baltimore, Bichette hit a potential double down the right field line, rounding first and then slamming on the brakes when right fielder Anthony Santander got the ball in quickly. As you can see in the linked video, Bichette’s injury was significant enough that he gave himself up between first and second base. He was able to walk off the field on his own accord, but with a limp.
As The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath reported last night, the Jays are currently calling the injury “right knee discomfort.” It stands to reason the club might keep further information under wraps until after today’s 5pm central time trade deadline so as not to reduce their leverage in talks for some sort of help at shortstop. The Blue Jays currently hold the last wild card spot in the American League.
Bichette, the AL leader in batting average and hits, is irreplaceable. He’s rarely missed a game in the last three seasons, and was well on his way to a five-WAR season. Certainly Jays GM Ross Atkins cannot go out and find another player of Bichette’s caliber. Santiago Espinal replaced Bichette in the game and represents the short-term solution. MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson ran through the Jays’ Triple-A shortstop situation, which does not present a clear replacement.
Matheson throws out a pair of potentially-available names in Tim Anderson of the White Sox and Paul DeJong of the Cardinals. The Blue Jays and Cardinals already got together a couple days ago on the Jordan Hicks trade, and Atkins has suggested “bigger concepts” were discussed (Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reporting).
As McGrath put it, adding a right-handed bat to the lineup was already “a huge priority” for Toronto, but it’s possible adding a middle infielder could jump to the top of the list. The team has used Whit Merrifield, Espinal, and Cavan Biggio at second base, all of whom are capable of playing elsewhere on the diamond.
Plenty of middle infielders have already been on the move in the past week, including Jace Peterson, Nicky Lopez, Amed Rosario, and Kiké Hernandez. Most second basemen likely to be available are hitting quite poorly this year, such as Kolten Wong, Tony Kemp, and Aledmys Diaz. Elvis Andrus is capable of playing shortstop, but he too is struggling with the bat.
Latest On Yankees’ Deadline Approach
With the Yankees in last place in the AL East despite a decent 55-51 record, their path forward remains somewhat murky with less than four hours to go before the trade deadline. Joel Sherman of the New York Post indicates that the club could look to both buy and sell, searching for long-term controllable pieces in areas of need while fielding offers on the pending free agents on their roster.
Several of the club’s pending free agents, including Luis Severino and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, have had difficult seasons in 2023, but could nonetheless draw interest as low-cost, depth additions from other clubs. Lefty Wandy Peralta, who has a 2.29 ERA in 47 appearances out of New York’s bullpen this year, and center fielder Harrison Bader have both fared better in their walk years, with Bader in particular drawing interest per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. Sherman more specifically notes that the Yankees and Phillies have discussed Bader, though there is “limited traction” on a deal between the sides.
Sherman adds that the Yankees have discussed closer Clay Holmes in trade talks, despite Holmes being controllable through the 2024 campaign. That being said, Sherman noted that the asking price for Holmes is exorbitant, rendering a deal regarding the club’s closer unlikely. The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty adds to that doubt, noting that it’s “highly unlikely” the club parts with either Holmes or fellow leverage reliever Michael King.
As far as buying goes, the club has been frequently connected to Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson in the days and weeks leading up to the deadline, and those connections haven’t stopped today. Kuty, Sherman, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand have are among those who have linked the Yankees and Carlson recently. That being said, Heyman cautions that the Cardinals are unlikely to deal Carlson unless they get a young MLB starter in return. That’s a price the Yankees could pay if they so chose, with youngsters Clarke Schmidt and Jhony Brito currently occupying spots in the club’s starting rotation.
As Feinsand notes, that Carlson’s ability to play quality defense in center field could be of particular value given Bader’s status as a pending free agent. Carlson could take over for Bader in center immediately in the event of a trade before the deadline, or play left field for the remainder of the 2023 campaign and shift over to center in the event Bader departs via free agency this offseason.
Big Hype Prospects: Manzardo, Acuna, Luciano, Quero, Saggese
The Trade Deadline seems to be happening early this year. Between the time I begin writing and this is posted, there might be more deals involving big-name prospects. This week, we’ll focus on the recently completed swaps. We’ll check back on the leftovers next time.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Kyle Manzardo, 23, 1B, CLE (AAA)
313 PA, 11 HR, 1 SB, .238/.342/.442
Manzardo burst onto Top 100 prospect rankings last season with a flashy 22-homer performance in nearly 400 plate appearances split between High- and Double-A. He has all the traits armchair prospect analysts (like myself) crave – plus discipline, a high rate of contact, and above-average exit velocities. If there was a fly in the ointment, his combination of high BABIPs and frequent fly balls seemed untenable. This season, he’s dropped to a more plausible .269 BABIP while maintaining the fly ball rate. His 2023 numbers more closely match his identity. His power outcomes have backed up, but there’s little cause for long-term concern. Additionally, Progressive Field is friendly to left-handed power hitters. Manzardo is undersized for a first baseman, and his power draws 45 and 50 grades on the 20/80 scouting scale. The profile reads a lot like a four-inches-shorter, left-handed Rhys Hoskins.
Luisangel Acuna, 21, 2B/SS, NYM (AA)
402 PA, 7 HR, 42 SB, .315/.377/.452
Repeating Double-A after a rough first exposure last season, Acuna has looked comfortable at the level. His BABIP-fueled batting line is 21 percent above league average (121 wRC+) despite middling power numbers. Like his brother, Luisangel has terrorized opponents on the basepaths. Scouts rate him as merely an above-average runner. There is a degree of swing-and-miss (12.4% SwStr%) to Acuna’s game that calls his future role into question. He’s expected to grow into average or better power if he can learn to lift the ball more consistently. Whether or not he can do so without developing a strikeout problem could depend on the sort of adjustment required. Lift-related mechanical changes tend to exacerbate whiff issues. In some cases, the issue is the location of contact – an adjustment that can yield positive results without negative repercussions. Acuna’s swing is violent and loud. Change could prove challenging. Despite strong walk rates, Acuna is an aggressive swinger, particularly at breaking balls below the zone.
Necessary offensive adjustments aside, there’s also question about Acuna’s future defensive role. He’s a physically capable shortstop who yet lacks polish. Lately, we’ve grown accustomed to seeing shortstop prospects with precocious defensive ability. Acuna could be asked to move over to second or third to better accommodate his ascent alongside Francisco Lindor.
Marco Luciano, 21, SS, SFG (MLB)
(AA) 242 PA, 11 HR, 6 SB, .228/.339/.450
The only member of today’s column who wasn’t traded, the Giants rushed Luciano to the Majors to cover a short-term opening at shortstop. Despite tepid overall numbers at Double-A, Luciano caught a heater beginning in late June. He batted .315/.397/.500 over his final 63 plate appearances at the level. His success carried over to a 27-plate appearance stint in Triple-A where he batted .292/.370/.625 with Major League caliber exit velocities. He’s 3-for-11 with five strikeouts thus far in the Majors. The once uber-prospect has developed into a slug-over-contact future third baseman. His strikeout rate might check in north of 30 percent. Only 11 qualified hitters have strikeout rates above 30 percent. The good news is nine of 11 have above-average batting lines. The two who don’t – Teoscar Hernandez and Byron Buxton – are celebrated hitters. Luciano will look to join this cohort of hitters.
It’s unlikely Luciano sticks with the contending Giants in the short term.
Edgar Quero, 20, C, CWS (AA)
321 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .246/.386/.332
A switch-hitter, Quero emerged as a bat-first catching prospect last season when he hit .312/.435/.530 with 17 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 515 Low-A plate appearances. The Angels made the curious decision to skip him past High-A – perhaps seeking to pair him with a better defensive instructor. His discipline remained in evidence this season. The power… not so much. Another plausible explanation of Quero’s aggressive assignment is to see if he merited moving to a different position to accommodate his bat. Instead, the Angels moved him from the organization entirely in the Lucas Giolito trade. Look for Chicago to slow the roll on Quero’s development. His defensive skills are reported to remain relatively raw.
Thomas Saggese, 21, 3B, STL (AA)
418 PA, 15 HR, 8 SB, .313/.379/.512
Saggese doesn’t have the physical traits evaluators crave, but he makes up for it with a hard-nosed playstyle. Part of the Jordan Montgomery trade, it feels like he was always destined to join the Cardinals. His tools draw a collection of 40 and 50 grades, but his feel for quality contact allows the total package to play up. Multiple reports reference his success against sliders. Something to watch is how he performs against upper-level pitchers with big fastballs and command. The Cardinals might seek to add corner outfield to Saggese’s bag of tricks. He fits best at third base, is considered too short for first base, and just passes at second base. The Cards love their role players to possess a deep well of utility.
Three More
Tekoah Roby, STL (21): The prospect headliner of the Montgomery trade, Roby has a four-pitch repertoire of above-average offerings. His best weapon is a double-plus curve ball. He’s currently sidelined with a shoulder injury. There’s relief risk for health reasons only – the stuff and command are sufficient to project a mid-rotation role.
Marco Vargas, NYM (18): Stolen from the Marlins in the David Robertson trade, Vargas is one of the flashier talents in the complex. He’s batting .283/.457/.442 with nearly twice as many walks as strikeouts and a strong rate of contact. Power development will decide whether he’s viewed as a future utility fielder or core performer.
Adam Kloffenstein, STL (22): Part of the return for Jordan Hicks, Kloffenstein is a big right-hander with a limited repertoire. He tunnels a sinker and slider in a way reminiscent of Brady Singer and Brad Keller. He has a solid feel for command and projects to eat innings in an uninspiring way. He’s pitched to a 3.24 ERA in 89 Double-A frames.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Rangers Acquire Jordan Montgomery, Chris Stratton
The Rangers continue to bolster their pitching ranks, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter links) reports that Texas and St. Louis have completed a trade to send Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton to Arlington. The Cardinals will receive left-hander John King, as well as infield prospect Thomas Saggese and right-handed pitching prospect Tekoah Roby. In the Rangers’ official announcement of the deal, it was noted that Texas also received an international bonus pool slot from the Cardinals. To create roster space, Texas designated right-hander Joe Barlow for assignment.
With the Cards in seller mode, Montgomery and Stratton were seen as two of the likeliest players to be moved prior to the deadline, as both pitchers are free agents after the season. Between this swap with the Rangers and the Cardinals’ move to send Jordan Hicks to the Blue Jays earlier this afternoon, it’s fair to guess that Jack Flaherty (another pending free agent) might also soon be headed elsewhere, and St. Louis could also look to some surplus position players with more team control as the Cards look to reload for 2024.
As for the Rangers, acquiring Max Scherzer on Saturday and now Montgomery today throughout reinforces the team’s rotation. Despite season-ending injuries to Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi, Texas had gotten solid results from its starters for much of the year, but some cracks have begun to show. Most prominently, Nathan Eovaldi hasn’t pitched since July 18, and was placed on the 15-day injured list today due to a forearm strain.
It’s an ominous diagnosis for a pitcher who already has two Tommy John surgeries on his health history, and the Rangers obviously aren’t taking any chances with Eovaldi’s recovery or in their pitching staff’s ability to thrive without Eovaldi in action. Manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry) today that the team is “pretty confident” Eovaldi will be able to return after just the minimum 15 days, though Eovaldi will visit with a doctor for precautionary purposes.
Scherzer and Montgomery now join a rotation that also includes Martin Perez, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, and Dane Dunning, though it remains to be seen if Texas will stick with a six-man staff. Keeping an extra starter might be useful to help keep everyone fresh for the pennant race (and, the Rangers hope, through October), yet moving Dunning back to a relief role might also be an option. On the other hand, Dunning has pitched quite well since his return to starting work, whereas Perez and Heaney have been much more inconsistent and Gray has been struggling over the last month.
Montgomery was already part of a notable deadline trade last year, when the Yankees sent the left-hander to the Cardinals in a one-for-one trade for Harrison Bader. In his first full year with the Cardinals, Montgomery has a 3.42 ERA over 121 innings, though his SIERA is a less-impressive 4.30. The southpaw has done his usual above-average job of avoiding free passes (6.9% walk rate) and limiting hard contact, though Montgomery now has a second straight season of a below-average strikeout rate (21.2%). While Montgomery has never been a huge strikeout pitcher, his whiff rate has also taken a tumble to 24.1% in 2023 after years of much more solid results.
If Scherzer is expected to be more of a front-of-the-rotation arm, then Montgomery represents a mid-rotation starter who can be relied on to take the ball every fifth (or sixth) day and deliver respectable results. Likewise, Stratton won’t be displacing Will Smith as the Rangers’ closer or even taking over a top set-up role, but he gives Texas another good arm for higher-leverage situtions late in games.
Montgomery and Stratton will each be reuniting with Mike Maddux, who was the Cardinals’ pitching coach from 2018-22 before moving on to join the Rangers’ coaching staff this year. Stratton is also a known quantity to skipper Bruce Bochy, as Stratton broke into the majors in the Giants organization back when Bochy was managing the team in 2016.
Stratton is also on the move for the second straight year at the deadline, as the Pirates sent Jose Quintana and Stratton to the Cardinals last August. Stratton’s 2022 numbers picked up considerably after that deal, and he has somewhat continued that form this season, even if his bottom-line results haven’t been reflective. Stratton has a 4.36 ERA in 53 2/3 innings, though a 3.48 SIERA and 3.06 FIP indicate some bad luck on Stratton’s part, perhaps due to an unusually low 61.6% strand rate.
The right-hander doesn’t have the high-velocity arsenal associated with most relievers, nor are his hard-contact or walk rates anything special. However, Stratton does bring durability in his ability to pitch multiple innings, and he has some of the most elite fastball and curveball spin rates of any pitcher in baseball.
Without any reports of money changing hands between the two teams, it looks like the Rangers will be absorbing the remainder of the 2023 salaries for Montgomery (roughly $3.5MM) and Stratton (around $1MM). It’s not a big financial commitment to a team that has already been splurging on big-name talent over the last two seasons, and Roster Resource projects that Texas is still just barely under the $233MM luxury tax threshold. The Rangers reportedly don’t have any issue crossing the tax threshold, so if another upgrade presents itself before Tuesday’s trade deadline, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the front office make another deal or two.
Among the players going back to the Cardinals, King is the best-known name to fans, as the lefty has a 4.27 ERA over 126 1/3 innings out of the Texas bullpen since he made his big league debut in 2020. A grounder specialist who has a very impressive 61.7% career groundball rate, King is naturally more susceptible than most to batted-ball luck, so his huge .379 BABIP over 18 2/3 innings has been the main factor in his 5.79 ERA.
The Rangers have sent King back and forth from Triple-A on a couple of occasions this season, and he is under team control through the 2026 campaign. The Cardinals will have the rest of the year to take a look at King and see if he might be an option for their bullpen going forward, plus in a more immediate sense King will add some left-handed depth to the St. Louis relief corps.
That said, Roby and Saggese are the bigger parts of this trade from the Cards’ perspective, as they join the three youngsters obtained in the Scherzer and Hicks deals as part of the sudden reload of the St. Louis farm system. MLB Pipeline ranked Roby as the Rangers’ 11th-best prospect and Saggese 14th, while Baseball America had a similar tack in placing Roby 13th and Saggese 15th.
Roby was a third-round pick for Texas in the 2020 draft, and he has a 5.05 ERA over 46 1/3 innings and 10 starts at Double-A Frisco this season. While he has cut back on his walks and home runs allowed, Roby’s strikeout rate has also tumbled during his three pro seasons, though his 25.6% mark this year is still respectable. The scouting reports from both Pipeline and BA pinpoint Roby’s command as his biggest issue, as his overall arsenal is solid. Pipeline gives a 55 grade (on the 20-80 scale) to all four of Roby’s pitches, though their report notes that the 21-year-old “may not have a true plus pitch” as a go-to offering.
Adding Roby will help St. Louis restock the minor league pitching ranks, while Saggese seems to fit the Cardinals’ preferred profile of a multi-positional infielder. Saggese has mostly played second and third base over his three pro seasons, while also getting a good chunk of action as a shortstop. He isn’t necessarily a standout defender at any position, but Pipeline liked his ability to stick at second base, and Saggese’s versatility is surely an asset as he climbs the ladder towards the big leagues.
The 21-year-old was also a 2020 draft pick (taken in the fifth round), and Saggese has done nothing but hit in the minors, including a .314/.380/.514 slash line and 15 homers over 417 plate appearances at Double-A in 2023. The pundits note that Saggese’s aggression at the plate can sometimes backfire, yet he has shown a bit more patience this season with an 8.2% walk rate.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Orioles, Cardinals Have Discussed Dylan Carlson
The Cardinals’ sell-off is in full swing, with Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton already out the door. Prior to trading Montgomery and Stratton to the Rangers, the Cardinals spoke to the Orioles about the left-hander, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. He adds that the O’s have also talked to the Cardinals about switch-hitting center fielder Dylan Carlson.
Goold suggests that Carlson hasn’t necessarily been a focal point in talks but rather a value add in addition to the starters they’ve marketed. Even if Carlson were viewed as a standalone target for Baltimore, there’d be some sense to it. The O’s are bursting with young talent, but they’re currently without center fielder Cedric Mullins due to a groin strain. Aaron Hicks, who’s hit well since being released by the Yankees and signing in Baltimore, is also on the injured list at the moment (hamstring strain). The O’s have gotten strong production from corner outfielders Austin Hays and Anthony Santander, but top outfield prospect Colton Cowser has struggled immensely in his first 59 plate appearances since being recalled.
Carlson, unlike the other three players the Cardinals have traded in the past 24 hours, is not a free agent at season’s end. He has three years of club control remaining beyond the current season. A former top prospect himself, the 24-year-old’s standing in St. Louis has seemingly deteriorated as he’s produced at a roughly league-average level since turning in a strong 2021 campaign.
The O’s don’t necessarily need a long-term fix in center field, as Mullins is also under team control for multiple years beyond the current season (through 2025). However, even when Mullins returns, there’d theoretically be room for both him and Carlson in the lineup. Anthony Santander could see more time at designated hitter, perhaps cutting into the playing time of struggling Ryan Mountcastle (though Mountcastle’s offense has ticked up over the past couple weeks). A speculative outfield of Hays, Mullins and Carlson would be defensively superior to the current alignment. Adding Carlson to the mix would also open further avenues for offseason deals. Santander is only controlled through the 2024 season and is due a raise on his $7.4MM salary, for instance.
The Cardinals, notably, are virtually certain to trade 27-year-old right-hander Jack Flaherty before Tuesday’s deadline. If Baltimore’s interest in the Cardinals’ pitchers extended beyond Montgomery, then it stands to reason that a deal surrounding Flaherty and Carlson could still be discussed, though the extent of the Orioles’ potential interest in Flaherty isn’t known. The right-hander is three years younger than his now-former teammate, Montgomery, but is also having a weaker season. Flaherty’s ERA is a full run higher, and he’s sporting inferior strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates.
Blue Jays Acquire Jordan Hicks
The Blue Jays landed one of the most sought-after bullpen arms on the trade market Sunday, announcing the acquisition of righty Jordan Hicks from the Cardinals in exchange for Double-A right-handers Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein. In a corresponding roster move, Toronto designated righty Mitch White for assignment. Hicks had previously been reported to be discussing an extension with the Cardinals ahead of the trade deadline on August 1, though those discussions seemingly stalled out earlier in the week.
Hicks, 26, was a third-round pick in the 2015 draft by the Cardinals. He made his big league debut back in 2018 and threw 77 2/3 innings in his first big league season, with a 3.59 ERA and 3.74 FIP. While he generated an impressive 60.7% groundball rate in his rookie campaign, he posted a lackluster 20.6% strikeout rate and struggled badly with his control to the point of walking 13.3% of batters faced. Early on in his sophomore 2019 season, Hicks required Tommy John surgery. That surgery began a series of injuries and setbacks that would limit him to just 38 2/3 innings of work from 2019-21.
Finally fully healthy in 2022, the Cardinals decided to try using Hicks as a member of the rotation. That experiment did not go well, as Hicks posted a 5.84 ERA and 5.54 FIP in 24 2/3 innings of work across seven starts while walking a whopping 16% of batters faced over that stretch. While he pitched a bit better upon returning to the bullpen, he nonetheless finished the 2022 campaign with 4.84 ERA and 13.3% walk rate in 61 1/3 innings of work.
The 2023 campaign started off difficultly for Hicks once again, as he yielded a whopping nine runs (eight earned) in just 5 2/3 innings of work in his first seven appearances of the year. Since then, however, he’s settled in as one of the most dominant relievers in baseball over the past few months. Since April 18, Hicks sports a 2.25 ERA and a sterling 1.92 FIP in 36 innings of work. He’s cut his walk rate to 10.4% in that time, a figure that, while somewhat elevated, is more than made up for by a phenomenal 34.4% strikeout rate. Hicks also sports a characteristically excellent 58.3% groundball rate this season, a figure that has led him to allow just two home runs all season, and none since he got his season back on track in mid-April.
Hicks’s dominant arm makes him a perfect candidate for Toronto’s bullpen, as the Blue Jays lost closer Jordan Romano to the 15-day injured list earlier this weekend thanks to lower back inflammation. While it’s possible Romano will return fairly quickly after the minimum 15-day stint, he’s been plagued by the issue since it caused him to depart the All Star game earlier this month. Still, it would hardly be a surprise to see the Blue Jays take additional time to ensure their closer is fully healthy upon his return given both the nagging nature of the issue and the importance of Romano, who leads the AL with 28 saves this season and sports a 2.79 ERA in 42 innings this season, to the club’s success.
In return for Hicks’s services, the Blue Jays are paying a hefty prospect toll. Robberse appears to be the headliner in the deal as the club’s seventh-best prospect according to MLB Pipeline and their sixth-best prospect according to Fangraphs. Originally signed out of the Netherlands back in 2019, the 21-year-old hurler sports a 92-94 mph fastball, quality secondary offerings in both a changeup and a slider, and plus command. In 113 1/3 innings of work at the Double-A level, Robberse owns a 3.97 ERA and a strikeout rate of 22%.
Kloffenstein, meanwhile, goes unranked on both Pipeline’s and Fangraphs’s lists. Fangraphs describes Kloffenstein as a pitcher with a four-pitch mix highlighted by a sinker and a slider, though it ultimately pegs him as more of an innings-eating, depth starter type. That evaluation, however, is from prior to the 2023 campaign, where Kloffenstein has impressed to this point. Toronto’s third-round pick in the 2018 draft has shoved across 89 innings of work at Double-A this season to the tune of a 3.24 ERA with a strikeout rate of 27.6%, a figure well above his career rate of 23.5% entering the 2023 campaign.
Both Kloffenstein and Robberse clearly fit the mold of return the Cardinals have reportedly been looking for in dangling their rental arms this summer: controllable, upper-level starting pitching prospects. Both Robberse and Kloffenstein project as starters going forward and have over 100 innings of experience at Double-A, with Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat noting that both hurlers are set to be promoted to Triple-A by the Cardinals organization. Given that promotion, it seems reasonable to assume both pitchers will be on the big league radar for sometime in 2024, barring injury or ineffectiveness changing the timeline.
The deal also spells the end of White’s time in Toronto. A second-round selection by the Dodgers in the 2016 draft, White impressed with a 3.44 ERA and 3.78 FIp in 49 2/3 innings of work across his first two seasons in the majors. He continued his success in a Dodgers uniform in 2022 with a 3.70 ERA and 3.95 FIP in 56 innings of work, but the club dealt White to Toronto at the trade deadline last season. Since joining the Blue Jays, White has struggled mightily, with a 7.60 ERA in 55 2/3 innings of work. While he posted a 4.03 FIP that far outstrips his results as a member of the Jays, his walk rate has ticked up to 11.7% this season, a level unlikely to be sustainable given his mediocre 21.7% strikeout rate. Going forward, Toronto will have one week to either waive or release White, assuming he himself isn’t traded before the deadline on August 1.
Craig Mish of the Miami Herald first reported that Hicks had been traded to Toronto. FanSided’s Robert Murray reported that Kloffenstein was part of the return. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet first reported Robberse’s inclusion in the deal.
Cardinals Rumors: Montgomery, Flaherty, Bullpen, Outfield
The Cardinals are perhaps the most intriguing seller of this trade deadline. The preseason favorite for the NL Central expected to build upon a 93-win campaign in 2022, the team has failed to live up to expectations with a brutal 46-60 record that leaves them in last place in the division and ahead of only the Rockies and Nationals in the NL. With the club’s eyes turned toward the future, speculation has run rampant regarding many of the club’s interesting pieces, both those who are set to hit free agency after the season and those who are under team control longer-term.
Despite their status as the league’s premiere seller, the Cardinals have largely been quiet to this point with the trade deadline just over 48 hours away. While reports earlier in the week hinted at the possibility of a blockbuster involving third baseman Nolan Arenado, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak firmly shut those rumors down yesterday. While Arenado may not be on the move, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently discussed a bevy of other rumors regarding the club’s options ahead of the trade deadline.
Most clearly positioned to move over the next two days are the club’s duo of mid-rotation rental starters: left-hander Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Jack Flaherty. Goold notes that both players, along with closer Jordan Hicks, are generating interest throughout the league, though the returns on each of those players, if traded by themselves, would reportedly not fit the mold of the Cardinals’ preferred return: controllable, major-league ready starting pitching.
That’s hardly a surprise, given controllable starters are typically regarded as some of the most valuable commodities in the sport. Given this, Goold indicates that the club could get creative and pair rental players with younger, controllable pieces would yield their desired return. In particular, Goold name-checks outfielders Alec Burleson and Dylan Carlson alongside relievers Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley as longer-term pieces who could be moved. In terms of potential Cardinals targets, Goold references both Yankees prospect Clayton Beeter and Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, though Goold cautions that Gilbert would require a “high-ceiling return.”
Recent reporting had previously indicated trade interest in Burleson from multiple clubs, and Goold reaffirms the Yankees’ previously reported interest in Carlson. Goold adds that, in addition to Carlson, the Yankees have interest in Hicks, who has also drawn interest from the Rangers. Additionally, Goold notes that the market for Flaherty and Montgomery includes the Marlins, who have scouted Flaherty in person this trade season, while the Rays are noted to have interest in St. Louis’s available pitchers more generally.
While Miami is seemingly focused on Flaherty among the club’s duo of rental starters, Jon Morosi of MLBNetwork reported last night that talks surrounding Montgomery were “gaining momentum” and that a deal was becoming increasingly likely. While Morosi didn’t specify which team the Cardinals were discussing Montgomery with, he noted that both the Diamondbacks and Orioles have engaged in discussions with St. Louis in recent days.
Mozeliak: Cardinals Are Not Trading Nolan Arenado
The Cardinals are not trading Nolan Arenado, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak firmly stating that fact to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. There was a report earlier this week that the Dodgers had strong interest in the third baseman and were discussing a deal, but it seems those talks won’t lead to Arenado leaving St. Louis. “I have stated we are not trading him, have not asked him to waive his no-trade clause,” Mozeliak said. “So at this time, we are working on building for future success.”
Despite the reported talks with the Dodgers, there were inherent obstacles to getting a deal done. For one thing, Arenado and the Cardinals seem to have a good relationship, as he didn’t trigger his opt-out opportunity at the end of last year. Most observers agreed he could have beat the five years and $144MM remaining on the deal, but he chose to stay, seemingly happy to stick with the organization as opposed to maximizing his earnings.
Since he has a full no-trade clause, he would have to sign off on any deal, and it would be surprising for him to do so after just waiving that opt-out chance. The report on the talks with the Dodgers indicated he was willing to accept a deal only to the Dodgers, having always wanted to play for them as a Southern California native. But Arenado told reporters last night that he had not been approached about his clause.
Beyond the contractual complications, all indications have suggested the Cards are planning to sell some pieces but still try to contend again next year. Since Arenado is one of the better players in the game, it would be hard to imagine a scenario wherein they subtract him from the roster and make their 2024 team better. The Cards do have a surplus of position players and a dearth of pitching, so perhaps one could make the argument that even “losing” a trade that makes the pitching staff better would be a net victory, but the easier path is just to keep Arenado and find other ways of upgrading the pitching staff.
Although Arenado is apparently sticking around, it still seems like Mozeliak and his staff will be busy in the next few days. The Cardinals are currently 46-59 and 11 games out of a playoff spot. Mozeliak has already admitted that the club will have to do some selling, making moves that are more focused on upgrading the 2024 club. That will seemingly lead to trades of impending free agents like Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks between now and the August 1 deadline.