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Rays Name Ryan Yarbrough Starter For ALCS Game 3

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The Rays will turn to left-hander Ryan Yarbrough to start tomorrow evening’s AL Championship Series Game 3 against the Astros, the team announced (via Juan Toribio of MLB.com). Blake Snell and Charlie Morton got the ball for the series’ first two games, while Tyler Glasnow started last Friday’s ALDS Game 5 against the Yankees. Presumably, this sets up Glasnow to go on regular rest in Wednesday’s Game 4.

Already up 2-0 on Houston, the Rays will look to take a stranglehold on the series. They’ll turn the ball over to Yarbrough, who pitched to a 3.56 ERA/3.80 FIP in 55.2 innings during the regular season. He’s not overpowering, but the 28-year-old throws a ton of strikes and is one of the sport’s premier contact managers. Relying heavily on a cutter and changeup that break in opposite directions laterally, Yarbrough perennially avoids the barrel. He limited opponents to an 82.6MPH exit velocity on average this season, per Statcast, placing him in the 99th percentile leaguewide. That continues his years-long trend of hard contact suppression.

The Rays used Ryan Thompson as an opener in front of Yarbrough in Game 4 of the ALDS. This time, they’ll turn to him from the outset, while Houston will counter with righty José Urquidy.

Charlie Morton Addresses Future

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In advance of his start in tomorrow’s ALCS Game 2, Rays right-hander Charlie Morton addressed his long-term future with reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times and Jon Morosi of MLB Network). The 13-year MLB veteran suggested in February he might step away at the end of the 2020 season. That’s still a possibility, but Morton made clear today the decision is partly in the team’s hands.

The Rays hold a $15MM club option on Morton’s services for 2021, and the pitcher said he’d be happy to play out that deal if the team exercises the option. Morton, who makes his home in Florida, said he’d “be completely honored and privileged to continue to play for the Rays” next season. If Tampa Bay were to decline the option, though, he said he’d seriously discuss with his family whether to pursue another opportunity or to retire.

$15MM is seemingly a more than reasonable price for a pitcher of Morton’s caliber. The 36-year-old (37 in November) only pitched to a 4.74 ERA across nine starts in 2020, but his underlying numbers were far more favorable. Morton’s 24.7% strikeout rate and 12.1% swinging strike rate are down a bit from his 2019 performance, but each mark remains a bit better than league average. Equally important, Morton’s 93.9MPH average fastball velocity is more than sufficient to continue to get outs, even if it’s down a tick from last season.

Of course, Morton has quite recently performed like one of the top arms in the game. He finished 3rd in AL Cy Young voting just last season on the heels of a 3.05 ERA/2.81 FIP over 194.2 innings. From 2017-19, Morton combined for a 3.24 ERA in 508.1 innings while holding opposing hitters to a .218/.296/.359 slash line. Even if one doesn’t expect Morton to return to those ace-like levels, he still looks like a strong mid-rotation starter. Surely, the Rays won’t overreact to a couple months of bad run prevention numbers, considering Morton’s other strengths.

That said, Tampa Bay perennially runs one of the lowest payrolls in the league, leaving the front office constantly on the hunt for advantages on the margins. Teams are also generally expected to curtail spending league-wide in the wake of massive coronavirus-driven revenue losses. That makes it difficult to bank on any team’s spending habits in the coming months.

Charlie Morton To Start ALCS Game 2

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The Rays will turn to right-hander Charlie Morton to start tomorrow afternoon’s ALCS Game 2 against the Astros, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com. Manager Kevin Cash indicated earlier today (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that this would be the likely course of action, but Tampa Bay held off on making the announcement official until speaking with Morton before tonight’s game. The veteran was forced to warm up in the bullpen during Friday’s ALDS Game 5 against the Yankees; fortunately, reliever Diego Castillo locked down a 2-1 victory without necessitating Blake Snell or Morton come into the game.

Morton getting the ball tomorrow hardly comes as a surprise. Snell will start tonight, while fellow high-end starter Tyler Glasnow started on Friday. Morton, 36, only posted a 4.74 ERA in 38 innings this season. He was plagued by a .355 opponents’ BABIP, though, and his strikeout (24.7%) and walk (5.9%) rates remained strong.

Morton will be a challenging task for a Houston lineup quite familiar with him. The veteran pitched for the Astros from 2017-18, famously slamming the door out of the bullpen in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series. The Astros will counter with Lance McCullers, Jr., who actually started that Fall Classic clincher against the Dodgers.

Rays Announce ALCS Roster

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The Rays have set their 28-man roster for their ALCS matchup with the Astros.  Blake Snell will start tonight’s Game 1, and it has been widely speculated that Charlie Morton will start Game 2, though no official decision has been made.

Two changes were made from Tampa Bay’s ALDS roster, as the Rays have added left-handers Jose Alvarado and Josh Fleming to the pitching staff.  Alvarado was just activated from the 45-day injured list, and has been sidelined since August 14.  Fleming last threw on September 27, tossing six shutout innings against the Phillies.  The Rays now have six left-handers to deploy against a Houston team that didn’t post good numbers against southpaws during the regular season, though the Astros lineup has been mashing both lefties and righties during the playoffs.

Alvarado and Fleming will take the place of righty Trevor Richards and outfielder Brett Phillips.  Richards was a mid-series replacement for the injured Oliver Drake and didn’t pitch in the ALDS against the Yankees, while Phillips was a defensive substitution in three games against New York and didn’t reach base over two plate appearances.

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Rays Reinstate Jose Alvarado From Injured List, Designate Oliver Drake

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The Rays have added left-hander Jose Alvarado to their roster for the ALCS, activating the southpaw from the 45-day injured list, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (Twitter link).  To create roster space, right-hander Oliver Drake was designated for assignment.

Alvarado last pitched on August 14, as inflammation in his throwing shoulder ended up sidelining the lefty for much of the season.  Alvarado only pitched nine innings over nine games for Tampa Bay, posting a 6.00 ERA and recording 13 strikeouts against six walks.  It marked the second straight abbreviated year for Alvarado, who was limited to 30 innings in 2019 due to injuries and an absence for family reasons.

Clearly, however, the Rays feel comfortable that Alvarado is now ready and able to contribute in their quest for the American League pennant.  When healthy in 2018, Alvarado was a dominant force in Tampa’s bullpen, posting a 2.39 ERA, 11.3 K/9, and 2.76 K/BB rate over 64 innings.  Alvarado dominated both right-handed and left-handed batters that season, but he has some far more drastic splits in 2019-20.  Though the idea of a lefty specialist has been somewhat mitigated by the new three-batter rule, the Rays could perhaps try as best they can to position Alvarado against only left-handed bats.

Drake suffered a right flexor tendon strain during the ALDS that led to his removal from the active roster, and he could now be left off Tampa’s roster entirely depending on his trip through DFA limbo.  Drake posted a 5.73 ERA, 1.17 K/BB rate, and 5.7 K/9 over 11 innings this season, and since he is eligible for his second trip through arbitration this winter, the designation could be the Rays’ way of getting a planned non-tender out of the way early.  In 2019, Drake was a very effective reliever for the Rays, with a 3.21 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 52.3% grounder rate, and 3.68 K/BB rate over 56 innings.

Yankees Notes: Voit, Anderson, Offseason

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Just about every day in October corresponds with a memorable Yankees postseason moment, and October 11 is no exception.  It was on this day in 1943 that the Yankees clinched their tenth World Series title, defeating the Cardinals in Game Five on the strength of a complete game shutout from starter Spud Chandler.  While the World Series MVP award didn’t exist back in 1943, it’s safe to say that Chandler would have been the winner — the righty tossed complete games in both the first and fifth games of the series, allowing just one earned run over his 18 innings for an 0.50 ERA.  This brilliant performance capped off a dream year for Chandler, who led the American League in ERA, WHIP, K/BB rate, and wins while winning AL MVP honors.

Something of a forgotten star in Yankees history, Chandler was a late bloomer who didn’t make his MLB debut until age 29.  Chandler posted a 2.84 ERA over 1485 innings for New York between 1937-47 (missing most of 1944 and 1945 while serving in World War II), and had a sterling resume that included four All-Star appearances, two league ERA titles, three World Series rings, and that AL MVP award.

Some items on the modern-day Yankees…

  • Luke Voit will undergo an MRI on his foot today, as the slugger told reporters following the Yankees’ Game Five loss to the Rays on Friday.  While the MRI will reveal the specifics, Voit described his issue as a “classic case of plantar fasciitis.”  Voit’s lack of mobility became more apparent down the stretch, though he had apparently been dealing with the foot problem for much of the season, not that it stopped him from hitting .277/.338/.610 with a league-best 22 homers.
  • There has already been much speculation about how the Yankees will respond to their ALDS loss, though SNY.tv’s Andy Martino doesn’t believe any major free agent spending is in the works due to revenue losses from the 2020 season.  Since spending around baseball is expected to be down this offseason, Martino believes this benefits a Yankees organization that has been adept at finding and developing hidden-gem players in trades and signings.  Of course, the challenge is that the Rays have also been experts in this arena, and Martino notes that the Yankees and Rays have been mutually interested in some of each other’s players.  For instance, the Yankees had interest in Nick Anderson in 2018, before Anderson had even debuted in the majors and before Tampa Bay acquired the ace reliever from the Marlins in July 2019.  Likewise, the Rays looked into a deal for Mike Tauchman back when the outfielder was with the Rockies, prior to Tauchman’s trade to New York in March 2019.
  • Something of a contrast to Martino’s opinion is provided by Joel Sherman of the New York Post, who also believes the Yankees won’t spend much, and in fact might look to get payroll under the $210MM luxury tax threshold to avoid a third straight year of an escalating tax bill.  The one splurge Sherman figures the Yankees “pretty much have to” make is re-signing DJ LeMahieu, given the infielder’s overall importance to the team over the last two seasons.  But, in order to address roster issues like defense and an overload of right-handed hitting, Sherman suggests that Voit or Gleyber Torres could become trade chips to acquire some left-handed pop or some extra pitching depth.  New York would then need a shortstop to replace Torres, and Sherman suggests the team pick up a one-year rental in advance of signing one of the many star shortstops projected to be available in the 2021-22 free agent market.

AL Notes: Rays, Phillips, White Sox, Encarnación, Vaughn, Rodon, Gonzalez, Mazara

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The Rays and Astros have roster decisions to make before their 10am deadlines. Both teams plan on adding a pitcher for the ALCS. For the Rays, Josh Fleming, Jose Alvarado, Ryan Sherriff, or even Brent Honeywell look like the top candidates to join the roster, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Brett Phillips, meanwhile, could be the odd man out now that Austin Meadows is back in the lineup. On the other hand, if the Rays choose to decide the roster spot by dance battle, Phillips should be safe. The former Royal and Brewer has appeared in four games this postseason, largely being used as a defensive replacement.

Now, lest we spend the entire evening on the postseason alone, let’s check in on a team that hopes to have these kinds of decisions to make in years to come…

  • The White Sox have some options pending after their most successful season in over a decade, and the Athletic’s James Fegan provides a rundown. One of the easier calls will be declining the $12MM club option on designated hitter Edwin Encarnación. It’s true that Encarnación didn’t exactly dazzle this year with a triple slash of .157/.250/.377, but more telling is GM Rick Hahn’s comment about #3 overall draft pick of the 2019 draft: Andrew Vaughn. Per Fegan, Hahn said, “Given his makeup and given his tools, it’s hard to look at him and rule him out of being able to help a team in the not too distant future.”
  • Like ships passing in the night, just as one #3 pick could soon embark on his White Sox career, another in Carlos Rodon could be nearing an end. The big lefty will be due at least a nominal raise on his $4.45MM contract, and there’s a decent chance that’s too rich given his inability to stay healthy. The White Sox will be looking for stability for their rotation now that their contention window has firmly opened. With that in mind, it’s likely they decline Gio Gonzalez’s $7MM option as well.
  • Perhaps the most surprising tidbit in the group is Fegan’s suggestion that Nomar Mazara is heading for a DFA. Not so shocking when considering his 42-game .228/.295/.294 line he put up across 194 plate appearances this year. But taking the long view, this certainly isn’t where the 25-year-old appeared to be heading when he made his debut in Texas as a 21-year-old.

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The ALCS?

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It was just last season when the Rays battled back from down 2-0 to force a game 5 winner-take-all match with the Astros in the ALDS. That game featured a showdown of Gerrit Cole versus Tyler Glasnow, one that would be replayed this year, but with Cole wearing pinstripes. Cole fared better last year, when the Astros took down the Rays by a score of 6-1. The Rays got their revenge on Cole Friday night, and now they’re ready to check the Astros off their list as well. Easier said than done, however, as these Astros have proven they won’t go quietly.

The home team won every game in their playoff showdown last year. Of course, this season there will be no home crowd to contend with, but the tables have turned in that the Rays are the AL East champs who will enjoy last bats for games 1, 2, 5, and 7. As a wild card entrant, the Astros are a rare much-disliked underdog. They’re also a much different team from last year, at least on the pitching side of things.

Of course, their front offices know each other well. After the Astros were forced to fire Jeff Luhnow, James Click was hired away from the Rays to take over as General Manager. Per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, Click said about facing his former team, “On a scale from zero to weird, it’s going to be weird.”

This series will be played over 7 consecutive days, should it go the distance. Both the Rays and Astros have gone to “playoff style” in their pitcher usage, but a 7-game, 7-day series will stretch those staffs even further. For the Astros, there’s concern about the health of Zack Greinke. The 36-year-old enigmatic ace has been dealing with arm soreness for the past month, though doctors did not find any structural damage. Still, it’s a concern for the Astros, as Greinke hasn’t been at his sharpest, surrendering 5 earned runs in 8 2/3 postseason innings thus far.

They’ve survived without him largely due to the breakout of 26-year-old Framber Valdez, who will start game one on Sunday night. Lance McCullers Jr. will go in game two. They’re planning to remove a position player in favor of having an extra arm for the ALCS, per The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan (via Twitter). Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier are also options to start games, while Enoli Paredes stepped up in a multi-inning role for the Astros against the Athletics. As a staff, they’re breaking new ground with every new win. Even Ryan Pressly, one of their few veterans, is experiencing his first postseason as a closer.

Same as Houston, the Rays will add a 14th pitcher to the staff and drop a position player, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). That should help them cope with a drawn-out series, the but the Rays chart their own path in terms of managing their pitching staff, as evidenced by manager Kevin Cash bringing back Glasnow to serve as a glorified opener on 2-days rest for the clinching game of the ALDS. Blake Snell will get the game one start for the third round in a row, while Charlie Morton is expected – though not announced – as the game two starter.

Because they play in different divisions, these two teams haven’t faced off since last year’s ALDS. The series starts tomorrow night. MLBTR readers, who is going to win this series? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

Rays Name Blake Snell As ALCS Game 1 Starter

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After defeating the Yankees last night in a climatic Game 5 victory, the Rays will move from the ALDS almost directly into the American League Championship Series, beginning Sunday night in San Diego.  The Rays announced that left-hander Blake Snell will be on the mound to start Game 1 against the Astros, making it three postseason series openers in a row for the former AL Cy Young Award winner.

Snell started Game 1 of the Rays’ wild card series with the Blue Jays, earning the win after tossing 5 2/3 shutout innings.  It was a different story in Game 1 of the ALDS, as New York struck for four runs (three on solo homers) in five innings of work against Snell, who allowed six hits and two walks while striking out four batters.

That outing marked Snell’s only ALDS appearance, so he’ll head into Sunday’s game on five full days of rest.  The extra day has generally benefited Snell during his career, as he has a 2.78 ERA, 2.94 K/BB rate, and 10.7 K/9 in 44 career starts on five days’ rest, as opposed to a 3.72 ERA in 43 career starts on the normal four days’ rest.

The Astros didn’t excel against left-handed pitching this season, finishing 20th of 30 teams in wRC+ (94) and slugging percentage (.403), 22nd in batting average (.232), and 26th in OBP (.299) against southpaws in 2020.  Of course, the playoffs have been a much different story for Houston’s offense, as the Astros have been tearing the cover off the ball over six games against the Twins and Athletics.  The Astros’ postseason OPS against lefties (.846) is actually higher than their OPS against right-handers (.836).

While no announcement has yet been made, Charlie Morton seems like the logical candidate to start Game 2 for the Rays.  Morton started Game 3 of the ALDS on Wednesday, and thus be lined up for Game 2 of the ALCS on regular rest.

Yankees v. Rays: Who Will Advance?

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The rival Yankees and Rays entered the season as the two favorites in the AL East, and they did indeed finish atop the division. The Rays handily outdid the Yankees, though, finishing with a 40-20 record to New York’s 33-27 mark. The Rays got there in part because they dominated the Yankees in the regular season with eight victories in the teams’ 10 contests. However, the clubs have been much more evenly matched in their ALDS showdown. At 2-2, they’ll meet for the decisive Game 5 of the series on Friday.

To this point, the offensive excellence of designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton – who already has four home runs in the series – has led the Yankees. In all likelihood, though, New York will need a sterling performance from ace Gerrit Cole, a 30-year-old who’s starting on short rest for the first time in his career, in order to advance. The club signed Cole for this type of game when it landed the ex-Pirate and Astro on a record contract worth $324MM over nine years last offseason. Cole has since gone 2-0 in the playoffs, including a Game 1 victory against the Rays, and allowed five earned runs on 12 hits with a 21:2 K:BB ratio over 13 innings.

With a payroll that falls well short of the Yankees’, the Rays have used a mix of creativity and shrewdly acquired talent to earn a place among the game’s elite teams. They revolutionized the opener strategy a couple years ago, and they won’t be afraid to turn to it yet again Friday. Righty Tyler Glasnow, Cole’s former Pirates teammate, will take the ball in Game 5 at the start; however, Glasnow’s only on two days’ rest, and manager Kevin Cash said on Friday that the Rays will utilize 2018 AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell early if there’s a need for it, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Snell could further strengthen a bullpen that was one of the majors’ best during the regular season.

So far in the series, the Yankees have outscored Glasnow, Snell & Co. by a 23-19 count. But none of that matters heading into a do-or-die Game 5. Which team do you expect to finish with more runs Friday and advance to face the Astros in the ALCS?

(Poll link for app users)

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