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Cafardo On Murphy, Price, Davis, Cueto

By Zachary Links | October 25, 2015 at 11:11am CDT

In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with eight major league officials about the players trending up and trending down as free agency approaches.  It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the list of players trending in the right direction starts with Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy.

“Obviously, he’s not going to be as hot as he’s been in the postseason, but he plays positions where his power plays well,” an American League GM told Cafardo. “There are teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who need a second baseman. Others, like the Angels, need a third baseman, where he also plays. He’s going to be sought-after and get a five-year deal at around $75MM. Maybe more.”

Murphy, who can also play at first base, would also have appeal for the attractive to the Orioles, Astros, Padres, and Tigers, Cafardo writes.

Here’s more from today’s column..

  • The feeling is that a seven-year, $210MM deal for David Price would be fair, Cafardo writes, though some are concerned that Price won’t live up to that kind of deal unless he goes somewhere that he’s comfortable. The incumbent Blue Jays could be that place, but the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs are also listed as possibilities.  Price, 30, pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 regular season starts for the Tigers and Blue Jays this past season.
  • The group of eight anonymous scouts, managers, and GMs polled by Cafardo would not want to give Orioles bopper Chris Davis more than a five-year deal.  Of course, a team out there very well could. “In the heat of the negotiations and fearing someone else will get him, this will likely get beyond what everybody wants. Scott Boras is the agent, so we may be looking at seven years,” one scout remarked.  Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes profiled the two-time home run king and estimated that he’ll be in line for a six-year, $144MM pact.
  • Johnny Cueto had a rough second half after being traded to the Royals and one National League GM told Cafardo that a “few teams have scratched him off their list.”  Still, that GM estimates that Cueto can net a Jon Lester-type $155MM deal.  Recently, we learned that the Red Sox are mulling a serious push for Cueto.  The Marlins also like Cueto, but financial constraints will probably hold them back in that pursuit.
  • One GM told Cafardo that he wouldn’t give Royals outfielder Alex Gordon anything more than a three-year deal at $36MM-$38MM.  In addition to KC, Cafardo recently listed the Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and possibly the Red Sox as potential fits.
  • Nationals hurler Jordan Zimmermann didn’t have a great season, but he was listed by Cafardo as a player whose arrow is pointing upwards.  One NL scout praised Zimmermann’s work ethic and toughness.  At the end of the regular season, Zimmermann sounded like a player who knows that he’ll be changing teams.
  • One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.”  Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock.  The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.
  • Cafardo’s panel indicated that Scott Kazmir could get a three-year deal this offseason, but at a reduced rate because of his struggles with the Astros down the stretch.  The group of eight officials sees Kazmir getting $10-$12MM AAV over a three year period.  The Tigers are among the clubs with interest in the veteran left-hander, though Kazmir has also expressed a desire to return to Houston.
  • At least two teams have their top advisers and scouts looking at Rich Hill’s last four starts with the Red Sox to see if his emergence in 2015 is for real.  One AL scout who has done his homework on the left-hander praised the hurler for his confidence.
  • Cafardo identified the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, and Mariners as teams that could have interest in Orioles catcher Matt Wieters.  Of course, his market will be impacted by whether or not he receives a qualifying offer.  The Rangers will be among the teams with interest, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, but only if he does come with a QO attached.  In a recent MLBTR poll, 60% of readers said that the O’s should give Wieters a QO.
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Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers Houston Astros Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Dodgers Miami Marlins New York Mets New York Yankees San Diego Padres Seattle Mariners St. Louis Cardinals Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Washington Nationals Alex Gordon Chris Davis Daniel Murphy David Price Johnny Cueto Jon Lester Jordan Zimmermann Marco Estrada Matt Wieters Rich Hill Scott Kazmir

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AL Notes: Loup, Rays Stadium, Greene, Ackley

By Jeff Todd | October 23, 2015 at 9:11pm CDT

As the Blue Jays battle to stay alive in the ALCS, they’ll finally be able to turn to lefty Aaron Loup if the need arises. He’s been sporadically absent over the post-season, creating challenges for the team’s pen, but it turns out that much more important matters have arisen. His wife went into labor much earlier than expected, giving birth to a premature baby boy on Wednesday, as Jays play-by-play man Mike Wilner tweeted earlier this evening. Fortunately, Loup’s son is in stable condition. MLBTR extends its congratulations and very best wishes to Loup’s young family.

Here are some notes from the American League:

  • There was some important news yesterday regarding the Rays’ efforts to land a new stadium, as Charlie Frago and Tony Marrero of the Tampa Bay Times reported. After long and tough negotiations, the St. Petersburg City Council approved a deal to let the club seek new stadium sites in surrounding counties. Tampa Bay would still be required to pay significant break-up fees to get out of its lease at Tropicana Field, with some saying the cost will be too high for the Rays to participate, so the path to keeping the team in the area remains to be cleared.
  • The Tigers face some tough questions with righty Shane Greene, who was an important trade acquisition last winter. As Chris Iott of MLive.com writes, the team expects to give him a shot to earn a spot with the club, but it’s not yet clear whether he’ll make the rotation. Greene had surgery on his shoulder, though it was for an “arterial issue” rather than some structural concern, and is set to be ready for the spring. But it was his rough season before that which leads to concern over his long-term outlook. “I can tell you right now that [Greene] is a starting pitcher,” said GM Al Avila. “But we feel that he can also go into the bullpen if we needed him to or because we think it’s the best thing for him and organization.” Something of the opposite is true of Alex Wilson, who Avila says will remain in the pen despite a history of starting in the minors.
  • Chad Jennings of the LoHud Yankees Blog takes a close look at the Yankees’ options with Dustin Ackley, writing that the deadline acquisition could take the bulk of the time at second base — being spelled frequently or occasionally against left-handed pitching — or end up in more of a super-utility role. Jennings also discusses the idea of replacing Ackley with a better version of himself — presumably, Ben Zobrist — while also utilizing youngsters Rob Refsnyder and Jose Pirela more heavily.
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Klentak, Bloom, Kantrovitz Are Finalists For Phillies GM

By Steve Adams | October 23, 2015 at 1:21pm CDT

1:21pm: MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki tweets that Kantrovitz is the third finalist for the position. As Zolecki notes, Kantrovitz, Bloom and Klentak are all Ivy League graduates in their 30s with a backgroudn in analytics, which fits the mold of what MacPhail and Phillies ownership were reportedly targeting early on.

1:03pm: Picollo is no longer in the running for the position, reports Crasnick (via Twitter).

10:52am: Bloom is indeed one of the three finalists for the position, Crasnick now reports (via Twitter).

OCT. 23, 9:40am: Klentak is one of the three finalists for the vacancy, reports Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter).

Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com writes that the current postseason schedule gives MacPhail a nice window to make an announcement. While the league frowns on major news announcements on game days, the Phillies could make an announcement Monday morning on a scheduled off-day. That’d allow MacPhail and the new GM to be with the club for the onset of the Phillies’ organizational meetings. Sources tell Salisbury an announcement could very well happen on Monday.

OCT. 22: 10:07pm: Former Cubs general manager Jim Hendry also interviewed for the Phillies’ GM vacancy, Crasnick tweets, and while he could land in Philadelphia, it’d be in an advisory role as opposed to GM. Hendry is currently working in the Yankees’ front office as a special assignment scout.

8:30pm: Crasnick adds (also via Twitter) that Rays VP of baseball operations Chaim Bloom has also interviewed for the position, though he doesn’t specify whether or not Bloom is among the finalists.

8:25pm: The Phillies are down to three candidates in their hunt for a general manager and could make a decision in the near future, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). The team’s organizational meetings begin on Monday, and while president Andy MacPhail recently said a hiring by that date would be ambitious, Crasnick’s report would seem to indicate that the team could have someone in place by Monday after all.

We’ve been keeping tabs on the list of GM candidates for Philadelphia since the team began its search to replace Ruben Amaro, who was dismissed late in the season. To this point, the known list of candidates to interview includes former Marlins GM Larry Beinfest, MLB’s vice president of baseball ops Kim Ng, Indians VP of player personnel Ross Atkins, Angels assistant GM Matt Klentak, Cardinals director of player personnel Matt Slater, Athletics assistant GM Dan Kantrovitz and Royals assistant GM J.J. Picollo. However, Crasnick reported recently that Beinfest has been informed he’s no longer in the running, while Ng reportedly is not among the top candidates.

Earlier this week Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that Kantrovitz had received a pair of interviews. He’s the only known candidate to have interviewed twice, so he seems the likeliest of the listed candidates to be among the final three. Klentak has long been said to be a favorite, having worked underneath MacPhail with the Orioles, and Picollo has been oft-mentioned as well.

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Scott Servais A “Strong Front-Runner” For Mariners Manager

By Jeff Todd | October 22, 2015 at 4:33pm CDT

Just-hired Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto decided largely to start from scratch in constructing his team’s field staff, parting ways with incumbent skipper Lloyd McClendon and many of his coaches. Now, the club is joining the managerial market as it looks to develop a group of uniformed personnel that meshes well with the new front office.

We’ll keep track of the latest in this post:

  • Servais is now the “strong front-runner” for the Mariners’ managerial opening, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times adds (also via Twitter) that Servais, like Dipoto, butted heads with manager Mike Scioscia at times and wasn’t expected to remain with the Angels.

Earlier Updates

  • Angels assistant GM/director of player development Scott Servais, who has been rumored to be a candidate to join the club’s front office, is “gaining traction” as a managerial candidate, reports Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. Servais, of course, worked with Dipoto in the Angels’ front office but is said to have a desire to become a manager as well and has been linked to the Padres’ vacancy, too.
  • One source told Dutton that Dipoto is interviewing five candidates. If that’s the case, he notes, the list of candidates would seem to be Servais, Bogar, Varitek, Montoyo and Nevin.
  • Jon Heyman of CBS Sports hears that the Mariners have interviewed former big league catcher Jason Varitek for the position. Previous reports have indicated that it isn’t clear if Varitek would be interested in leaving his Boston-area home (and, more specifically, leaving his young children), so it’s not known if he will give the position serious consideration. Varitek doesn’t have managerial experience, though former major leaguers Brad Ausmus, Mike Matheny and Paul Molitor were all recently hired without prior experience.
  • Rays coach Charlie Montoyo interviewed today for the job, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports on Twitter. He served as the club’s third base coach this year after an eight-year run as the manager for the Triple-A Durham Bulls.
  • USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Mariners will interview Diamondbacks Triple-A manager and longtime Major Leaguer Phil Nevin (Twitter link). Nevin has been mentioned increasingly as a future Major League manager and has drawn interest from every club with a managerial vacancy this offseason.
  • Angels special assistant Tim Bogar, who was once the interim skipper for the Rangers, has been mentioned as a possible front-runner from the job. He and Dipoto are not only former teammates, but worked together recently in Los Angeles.
  • The club is also expected to show interest in a variety of other candidates. Among those mentioned thus far as at-least-hypothetical possibilities are Alex and Joey Cora, Padres bench coach Dave Roberts, Rays third base coach Charlie Montoya, former Pads manager Bud Black, long-time Mariners Raul Ibanez and Dan Wilson, and a host of others.
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AL East Notes: A-Rod, Judge, Murphy, Rays

By Zachary Links | October 18, 2015 at 3:29pm CDT

Alex Rodriguez has been hired as a part of FOX Sports’ commentary team for the MLB postseason, and in a cross-promoting effort, A-Rod was welcomed on the NFL on FOX pregame show.  As a part of the festivities, Yankees third baseman tossed a football to analyst Jay Glazer, but he went a little high and the errant pass cracked a very expensive-looking monitor, as Justin Tasch of the New York Daily News writes.

After you enjoy that .gif once or twice, check out the latest from the AL East..

  • Chad Jennings of The Journal News looked at the Yankees’ options when it comes to right fielder Aaron Judge.  The 23-year-old obviously holds promise, but Jennings writes that Judge could headline a high-impact trade, possibly for a high-end starter or an established power hitter.  The Yankees balked at including Judge and other top prospects in their late July talks for Craig Kimbrel, so it remains to be seen whether they could have a change of heart this winter.
  • Daniel Murphy has a strong left-handed bat and defensive flexibility, which could help the Yankees, but the Yankees do already have Dustin Ackley and they have a bigger need for power hitting on the other side of the plate, Jennings writes.  Still, Jennings writes that it’s hard to ignore what Murphy is doing for New York’s other team.
  • Asdrubal Cabrera is expected to find a multi-year pact elsewhere but the Rays could bring back John Jaso or Grady Sizemore, just probably not both, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  Topkin estimates that Jaso will be in range for a two-year, $10MM deal and that Sizemore could come much cheaper at $1MM.  “They certainly are going to want to test the market and see what’s out there, and we will continue to stay in touch with them. At the same time we are managing a payroll so we have to fit within those constraints. There aren’t going to be any early decisions, I imagine,” baseball operations president Matt Silverman said.
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Cafardo On Carter, Longoria, Strasburg

By Zachary Links | October 18, 2015 at 12:15pm CDT

Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe is concerned about the Red Sox’s lack of power, but top exec Dave Dombrowski doesn’t seem as worried.

“I think we have enough power,” Dombrowski said last week. “It depends on how the lineup shakes out. Personally, I like guys who can drive the ball into the gaps or hit the ball out of the ballpark. David [Ortiz] is a power guy. Hanley can do what I’m talking about. We don’t strike out in abundance. Our strikeouts are down compared to most clubs in the league. We’re very similar to Kansas City — not a power club.”

Still, in case DD changes his mind, Cafardo lists many intriguing power hitters that could be options for Boston this winter.  Here’s more from today’s column..

  • One major league source believes that the Astros could dangle first baseman Chris Carter as trade bait.  The 28-year-old (29 in December) ended up with a .294/.400/.529 batting line over twenty postseason plate appearances, continuing to build off of the .240/.328/.558 batting line and nine home runs that he put up over his final 120 plate appearances.  Despite that strong second half, his “unpredictable performance, coupled with high strikeouts” could have the Astros a more reliable alternative, Cafardo writes.  MLBTR projects Carter to earn $5.6MM in his second of four trips through arbitration.
  • Evan Longoria’s contract runs another seven years and his production hasn’t been as great as expected, but one AL GM sounds like he’d be pretty high on him still. “The contract he signed is long but reasonable,” the exec told The Boston Globe scribe. The Rays have repeatedly shot down speculation that they would shop the third baseman, but with the position being in such high demand, Cafardo wonders if they would keep an open mind.  The Angels, he says, would be a great fit for the 30-year-old.  Longoria’s contract with the club runs through 2022, which would be his age-36 season, plus the Rays have a club option on his services for 2023.
  • Cafardo is hearing “a lot of buzz” that the Nationals could make right-hander Stephen Strasburg available.  Recently, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that the Rangers and Nationals had trade talks involving Strasburg over the winter, though nothing ever came close to getting done.  The 27-year-old right-hander’s value is down due both to an inconsistent 2015 season and to the fact that he now has only one season left before hitting free agency.  Despite all of that, one has to imagine that the Nats would require significant return to part with the former No. 1 overall draft pick.
  • The Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and maybe even the Red Sox (thanks in part to the Allard Baird connection) could all be in the mix for Royals outfielder Alex Gordon this season, Cafardo writes.  Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com recently wrote that the Astros were a team to keep an eye on with regards to Gordon.
  • Cardinals outfielder/first baseman Brandon Moss is an interesting and affordable left-handed power option for a few clubs this winter, including the Red Sox, Cafardo writes.  Cafardo says the Orioles will be another team “likely” keeping an eye on Moss.  Moss earned $6.5MM in 2015 and the MLBTR projection model has him slated to earn $7.9MM in 2016.  The incumbent Cardinals would reportedly like to retain Moss, at least in a bench capacity.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers Houston Astros New York Mets Tampa Bay Rays Alex Gordon Brandon Moss Chris Carter Evan Longoria

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Brewers Hire Matt Arnold As Assistant GM

By Jeff Todd | October 14, 2015 at 2:07pm CDT

New Brewers GM David Stearns has decided on an assistant general manager, tabbing former Rays director of player personnel Matt Arnold as his top lieutenant. Milwaukee had announced yesterday that long-time assistant GM Gord Ash would not return in that role, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports, though he was offered another position in the organization.

“I am thrilled to bring Matt on board,” Stearns said in the release. “Matt has touched nearly every aspect of baseball operations during his impressive career. He has the ability to impact our organization across the entire baseball operations spectrum and will be an integral part of our operation.”

At 36 years of age, Arnold makes for another youthful addition to the Milwaukee front office, though he’s still a fair sight older than his new boss. (Stearns is just thirty.) Arnold had been with Tampa Bay since 2007. But several teams apparently sought out his services this winter, including the Marlins.

As Arnold explained when he was Tampa Bay’s director of pro scouting, in an interview with Tommy Rancel of SB Nation, his baseball background is firmly in the scouting arena. But he also has a degree in economics and is a believer in statistical analysis. “I think it’s important that we separate the two fields as we each make our own evaluations,” said Arnold back in 2009, ” but combine them in the final synthesis of information when making a decision.” 

Of course, Arnold’s exposure to the full scale of baseball decisionmaking has grown since that time. The Brewers’ announcement credits him with involvement in many aspects of Tampa Bay’s organization — including, interestingly, “the integration of science, biomechanics and human movement analysis within baseball operations at all levels.”

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Managerial Notes: Nevin, Cora, Mariners, Marlins, Mattingly

By Jeff Todd | October 13, 2015 at 12:16pm CDT

There were a host of updates this morning on all four managerial openings around the league. Here’s the latest:

  • Long-time big leaguer Phil Nevin, who most recently has served as the manager of the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A affiliate, has drawn broad interest, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. Nevin has already interviewed with the Marlins and Nationals, as expected, and will also sit down with the Padres and Mariners. Nevin, 44, spent the most memorable stretch of his 12-year big league career in San Diego, where he racked up a .288/.359/.503 slash in over 3,000 plate appearances.
  • The Padres will also interview long-time big leaguer Alex Cora, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter). Cora, who currently works as an analyst, has often been mentioned as a managerial candidate and served as a skipper in his native Puerto Rico. The 39-year-old spent parts of fourteen seasons in the majors, the last of those with the Nationals in 2011.
  • The Marlins and Nationals will also interview Cora, according to a tweet from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Like Nevin, it seems, he’ll be given a look by all the teams currently seeking new field leadership.
  • Indeed, Cora is also expected to receive interest from the Mariners, according to ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden (Insider link). Other names that could be weighed in Seattle include Padres bench coach Dave Roberts, Rays third base coach Charlie Montoya, Angels special assistant Tim Bogar, and former big league skipper Bud Black, per the report. We’ve heard Bogar mentioned previously as a possible favorite, with a variety of other names that could be considered.
  • The Nationals will not only take a look at Nevin and Cora, but will also interview Black this week, Nightengale tweets, which was widely expected. Washington also has interest in Giants bench coach Ron Wotus, James Wagner of the Washington Post reports.
  • Bowden says to look for the Marlins to interview an “eclectic” mix of possibilities for their managerial vacancy — a description which could, it seems, be applied to many of the other openings. The club is giving indications that it will wait to make a decision until the Dodgers decide whether to retain Don Mattingly, as he’d be considered a strong candidate in Miami.
  • You can keep track of all the latest developments for three of the above teams’ managerial situations at the following links: Marlins, Nationals, Padres. (We’ll start one for the Mariners in short order.)
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East Notes: Rays, Yankees, Braves, Mets

By Zachary Links | October 11, 2015 at 4:14pm CDT

The Rays experimented with an unusual pitching strategy this season, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The club limited their young pitchers to just five or six innings per start and despite a lack of star-studded depth, the Rays’ 3.63 ERA for starters was the sixth best in the league. On the downside, the bullpen was overtaxed and had a 3.93 ERA – good for 11th worst in the bigs.  President of Baseball Operations Matt Silverman says the plan needs some tweaking, and that could call for the rostering of more multi-inning relievers. Of course, the club will return four veterans next season in Chris Archer, Drew Smyly, Jake Odorizzi, and Matt Moore, so they may not employ the same strategy in 2016.

Here’s more from the AL and NL East..

  • Billy Eppler is off to California to serve as the Angels’ new GM, but Yankees scouts Tim Naehring and Jay Darnell won’t be following him, GM Brian Cashman says.  “That’s not true,’’ Cashman said, according to George A. King III of the New York Post. “They are under contract.’’  As for Eppler’s replacement, King lists former Yankees outfielder/director of pro scouting Kevin Reese and manager of professional scouting Steve Martone as a couple of strong possible in-house candidates.
  • Teams with managerial openings are not considering Braves first base coach Terry Pendleton or bullpen coach Eddie Perez at this time, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets.  O’Brien personally feels that both Pendleton and Perez would make strong managerial candidates.
  • Earlier today we learned that the Mets will promote middle infield prospect Matt Reynolds to the playoff roster.  A 40-man move must be made in order to facilitate that move and Adam Rubin of ESPN.com (on Twitter) speculates that a pending free agent such as Eric O’Flaherty could get bounced.

Brad Johnson contributed to this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

By Mark Polishuk | October 9, 2015 at 8:16am CDT

The Rays already have an excellent defense and (now that almost everyone is healthy) a deep rotation, so their main offseason goal will be to add enough bats to get back into the AL East hunt.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Evan Longoria, 3B: $111.5MM through 2022 ($13MM club option for 2023)
  • Chris Archer, SP: $23MM through 2019 (plus club options for 2020-21)
  • James Loney, 1B: $8MM through 2016
  • Matt Moore, SP: $7.5MM through 2016 (plus club options for 2017-19)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

  • Jake McGee (4.127) – $4.7MM projected salary
  • Logan Forsythe (4.113) – $3.3MM
  • Desmond Jennings (4.101) – $3.1MM
  • Rene Rivera (4.082) – $1.6MM
  • Alex Cobb (4.061) – $4.0MM
  • J.P. Arencibia (4.052) – $1.4MM
  • Daniel Nava (4.045) – $1.9MM
  • Drew Smyly (3.154) – $3.9MM
  • Brandon Gomes (3.082) – $900K
  • Brandon Guyer (3.066) – $1.3MM
  • Erasmo Ramirez (2.158) – $2.8MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Arencibia, Rivera, Gomes, Nava

Contract Options

  • None

Free Agents

  • Asdrubal Cabrera, John Jaso, Grady Sizemore

Even following a 2014-15 offseason that saw them deal several veterans, the Rays were still a tough out last season, finishing with an 80-82 record.  President of baseball operations Matthew Silverman is already on record as stating that after a busy year of both roster and front office shuffling, this winter “could be more of “a ’normal’ offseason during which we can focus all our efforts on advancing the organization.”  For the Rays, of course, “normal” doesn’t include any expensive free agent signings.  Owner Stuart Sternberg said it’s “not overly likely” that the club’s 2016 payroll will remain at the modest $75-$76MM range of the last two seasons, though this doesn’t necessarily mean Sternberg will order a particularly drastic cut.

Since roughly $29.78MM is already committed for four players next year, Silverman will have to be creative with his offseason maneuvers.  This will include figuring out the Rays’ 11 arbitration-eligible players, one of the league’s biggest arb classes.  MLBTR’s Matt Swartz figures the Rays will owe roughly $28.9MM in arbitration salaries if they tender everyone, which would bring their total to $58.68MM for 15 players.

Solid 2015 contributors like Logan Forsythe, Drew Smyly, Erasmo Ramirez and Brandon Guyer will obviously be tendered contracts, as will Alex Cobb though he won’t be back from Tommy John surgery until late next season.  One potential avenue for reducing the 2016 payroll would be to explore signing some of these players (Forsythe, Smyly, Ramirez or even Cobb on a somewhat unique deal given his health situation) to extensions.  The Rays are no strangers to locking up young players early in their careers, and this strategy is likely to continue under Silverman as it did under Friedman.

The decision to tender Rene Rivera or J.P. Arencibia could determine the backup catcher’s job if the Rays are comfortable with Curt Casali getting most of the action.  Rivera’s defense likely gives him the edge over Arencibia’s power, given the value that Tampa Bay places on pitch-framing.  Of course, it’s also possible that the Rays could look to solidify things behind the plate by acquiring a new everyday catcher and using Casali as the backup.

Desmond Jennings and Jake McGee present a couple of interesting cases for the Rays.  Jennings missed almost all of 2015 with knee injuries, so if the team isn’t sure if he’ll be a viable everyday answer on the Tropicana Field turf, the Rays could explore a trade.  Left field could then be filled by a platoon of Guyer and a left-handed bat (perhaps a re-signed Grady Sizemore), or potentially another offseason acquisition.

McGee had some injuries as well last season but pitched brilliantly (2.41 ERA, 11.6 K/9, 6.00 K/BB rate over 37 1/3 IP) when healthy.  With Brad Boxberger also coming off a strong season as closer, however, the Rays may feel McGee’s projected $4.7MM arbitration price tag is too costly.  The Rays have enough of a history of successful reliever reclamation projects that they could choose to rebuild another arm rather than pay McGee.  On the flip side, Silverman could look to gain cost-certainty over McGee by signing him to an extension and then team him with Boxberger to pursue a Royals-esque strategy of winning with defense and a lockdown bullpen.

That defense was aided by the emergence of Forsythe and Kevin Kiermaier as everyday players at second and center field, respectively.  Forsythe broke out in his second year as a Ray, hitting .281/.359/.444 with 17 homers over 615 PA and also providing above-average glovework.  Kiermaier had roughly a league-average year at the plate but still generated a whopping 5.5 fWAR thanks to his elite center field glove — his 40.7 UZR/150 and 42 Defensive Runs Saved were by far the highest of any player in baseball.

These two and Evan Longoria will be the locks in next year’s Rays lineup.  Elsewhere around the diamond, Steven Souza will have the inside track on the right field job again, while James Loney is likely to remain at first base since Tampa Bay probably won’t find much trade interest in his $8MM salary and declining production.  Richie Shaffer will likely get some at-bats spelling Loney against left-handed opponents, and Shaffer could also see some platoon action at DH.

Free agent John Jaso wouldn’t require too big of a contract to return as a part-time DH, though even something like a two-year/$14MM deal (or even a one-year/$6MM) could be too rich for the Rays’ taste.  Since Jaso can only hit righties and can’t play the field, the Rays are probably more apt to pursue a player with greater versatility.  A left-handed hitting veteran who can play part-time at both DH or either corner outfield spot would be ideal; essentially the Rays could use an upgraded version of David DeJesus, who filled a DH/LF role before being dealt to the Angels last summer.

Shortstop has been filled by veterans Yunel Escobar and Asdrubal Cabrera over the past two seasons, and Tampa Bay will have another vacancy at the position since Cabrera will look for a deal that’s beyond the Rays’ price range.  The pickings are somewhat slim on the 2015-16 free agent shortstop market, though in my opinion, Alexei Ramirez stands out as a potential target that would fit the Rays’ M.O. of signing veterans looking to rebuild their value on a one-year deal.  Ramirez may not be available on the open market, however, if the White Sox exercise their $10MM club option on his services on the heels of a nice second half.

The Rays probably aren’t looking for a shortstop on a multi-year commitment given that two of their top prospects (Daniel Robertson and Willy Adames) are both shortstops, and Robertson could potentially hit the majors by mid-to-late 2016.  A platoon of Tim Beckham and Nick Franklin could fill the void at short until Robertson is ready, and it’s not inconceivable that either of those formerly highly-touted prospects could themselves break out.

Matt Moore had an overall shaky season in his return from Tommy John surgery, though the southpaw looked better over his last four starts of the year.  If Moore and Smyly (who missed time with a minor tear in his labrum) are both healthy and productive, the Rays rotation could be one of the best in the game with those two left-handers, Jake Odorizzi and ace Chris Archer leading the way.  As Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times recently observed, the Rays will also have a load of fifth starter depth in the form of Ramirez, Matt Andriese, Alex Colome, Nate Karns, Cobb when he’s healthy and top prospect Blake Snell knocking on the door.

This type of pitching depth can be helpful to the Rays in two ways.  Firstly, they could simply keep it and guard themselves against the kind of major injuries that befell Moore, Cobb or Smyly over the last two years.  Along those same lines, the Rays could use an extra starter in a relief role to bolster the bullpen.  Andriese and Colome were mostly used out of the pen in 2015, and it’s possible Cobb could return as a reliever in order to slowly ease him back after his surgery.

On the other hand, a starter could also be used as a trade chip.  In less than a year running Tampa Bay’s front office, Silverman has already shown himself to be a very aggressive dealer in his efforts to restock the farm system, so if he makes a similar trade market splash when focused on the Major League roster, there’s no shortage of options.  We can safely assume that Archer is staying put, though could pre-arb arms like Odorizzi or Ramirez be moved for a big return?  Ramirez quietly posted a 2.95 ERA over his last 128 innings (22 starts) of 2015 and while that’s certainly promising, the Rays could also explore selling high.

Smyly or Moore could also be attractive commodities in potential deals if other teams are satisfied that both are healthy.  Each left-hander is controllable — Smyly is in his second of four arbitration years and Moore is on an option-heavy contract that could run through 2019.  Lower-level starters like Colome or Andriese could also be shopped for smaller parts.

The Rays hung in the Wild Card race until mid-August, and that was even after Kevin Jepsen was traded to Minnesota, a deal that reportedly cast a disappointed pall over the Tampa Bay clubhouse.  As Silverman indicated, the front office’s attention will now be more firmly directed on the season at hand rather than just at the future.  Don’t be surprised if the Rays are again involved in a plethora of deals and are getting a lot of playoff contender buzz come Spring Training.

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2015-16 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Tampa Bay Rays

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