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AL East Notes: Orioles, Rays, Red Sox, Greinke

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The Orioles are generally patient in the free agent market under GM Dan Duquette, writes Rich Dubroff of CSN Baltimore. Duquette’s biggest free agent signings came late in the 2013-2014 offseason when he inked Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez. Given that 20 players were extended qualifying offers, Baltimore could once again wait to see if any players fall through the cracks. In my opinion, there are some risks with this strategy. While buying low close to the season has its advantages, it can leave a player under-prepared. Additionally, several clubs appear well positioned to play the waiting game. Duquette could find an unusual amount of competition if he waits to do his shopping until late-January.

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • Former Orioles Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, and Matt Wieters may take a patient approach to finding a new contract, writes Dubroff. All three Scott Boras clients received a qualifying offer. In the case of Davis, the Orioles would like to re-sign him and plan to make a competitive offer. However, Dubroff wonders how long Baltimore will allow Davis to shop for offers before they move onto alternatives. Meanwhile, the market for Wieters may not be particularly robust with the White Sox, Astros, and Dodgers as possible fits. Reliever Darren O’Day was not given a qualifying offer, and he could be in line for a four-year contract.
  • The Rays made an early splash on the trade market, and they’re obviously not done, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The club has narrowed its focus for the offseason but remains open to discussing any player. Topkin notes that free agent activity will wait until later in the offseason “when their currency of playing time can be worth more than money to players still on the market.” Trade talks figure to revolve around first baseman James Loney. He’s owed $8MM next season. Corner infield prospect Richie Shaffer appears ready for a high profile role if Loney is dealt elsewhere.
  • The Red Sox currently have the 12th pick in the 2016 amateur draft, and it may influence some of their free agent decisions, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Under the qualifying offer system, the earliest pick ever surrendered to sign a free agent is the 13th (Padres, James Shields). The club would probably be willing to cough up a pick for a top free agent like Zack Greinke, Davis, or Jordan Zimmermann. However, pitchers like Chen, Marco Estrada, and others might not offer enough upside to forego the early pick. Per President Dave Dombrowski, “I think it’s a case-by-case basis and you analyze that based upon the player you have a chance to sign.“
  • As a means of retaining their first pick, the Red Sox may attempt to trade for starting pitching, writes Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com. Trade candidates are harder to predict because it’s unclear which players are really on the table. McAdam believes that A’s starter Sonny Gray, Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco, and San Diego’s Tyson Ross are logical targets. The club could also chase a top reliever like Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman.
  • Greinke may not be a fit in Boston, opines Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com. Greinke actually hit similarly to Pablo Sandoval on a rate basis and reportedly enjoys batting regularly. There’s also the matter of home division. The NL West includes some of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. As such, the Dodgers and Giants are a good fit. Pitchers in the AL East have to survive Fenway and three homer-happy venues in Toronto, New York, and Baltimore. That could hold back the Red Sox in negotiations for other top pitchers like David Price too. Gammons does see a possible trade match with the White Sox for ace Chris Sale. Blake Swihart could potentially serve as a centerpiece.

AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays

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Alex Anthopoulos’ abrupt departure from the Blue Jays came as a surprise to team president Mark Shapiro, but finding a new GM is now just one of many tasks ahead of him, MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm writes. Chisholm notes that Shapiro seems happy with interim GM Tony LaCava for now. “I’m comfortable in Tony guiding our baseball operations staff,” says Shapiro. “It’s not just Tony, just like it wasn’t me, not just Alex. There’s a strong group of people in that room.” Anthopoulos’ departure right before the beginning of free agency was inconvenient, but Shapiro (who is, of course, himself a former GM) sounds confident that it won’t hold the Jays back. Here’s more from the AL East.

  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman is “open to anything” as he sees how the winter unfolds, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal writes. Last offseason, Cashman traded several players he had no particular intention of dealing, including Shane Greene, Manny Banuelos and Martin Prado.  “You have to be pretty aggressive and open to trade a good young pitcher under team control (Greene), a left-handed prospect (Banuelos) or a guy like Prado who fits you like a glove,” says Cashman. Cashman adds that he’s not looking to trade top young players Luis Severino, Greg Bird or Aaron Judge, but emphasizes that his ears are open to all possibilities.
  • The Rays still see Brad Miller, acquired in a recent six-player deal with the Mariners, as a potential starting shortstop, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. “We’ve been impressed by his work at shortstop, and it’s always a plus to have a left-handed-hitting middle infielder,” says president of baseball operations. “We’ll take him and the many other guys we have and head into Spring Training feeling good about our situation in the middle infield.” The Rays are likely to use Logan Morrison at DH. “He certainly has the type of bat that fits in the DH role, and we’re excited about that bat,” says Silverman. “You add him to our lineup and we’re immediately more formidable, especially against right-handed pitching.”

Outrighted: Ruggiano, Heisey, Wilson, Perez, Beliveau, Elmore, Perez, Sadler, Cumpton

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Teams are continuing to prune their 40-man rosters as decisions arise, and there were a number of outrights over the last day or two. We’ll cover them all here:

  • The Dodgers outrighted both Justin Ruggiano and Chris Heisey, with both outfielders electing free agency after clearing waivers, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter links). Ruggiano and Heisey were both added very late in the season — in the latter’s case, re-acquired — and saw limited action overall. It’s worth noting, though, that Ruggiano turned things on after he was demoted early on by the Mariners, raking at Triple-A and even slashing a cool .291/.350/.618 in his sixty plate appearances in Los Angeles. The 33-year-old will be an interesting bench target for teams looking to add a threat against southpaws.
  • Catcher Bobby Wilson refused an assignment with the Rangers after clearing outright waivers, as executive VP of communications John Blake announced on Twitter. The 32-year-old spent time with both the Rays and Rangers last year, continuing to serve as a fill-in backstop who does not contribute much at the plate.
  • Likewise, outfielder Juan Perez is headed for free agency after he was outrighted by the Giants, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter. Perez, 28, has received 246 total plate appearances over the last three years in San Francisco, compiling a meager .224/.267/.316 batting line. He’s spent most of his time in recent years at the Triple-A level.
  • Lefty Jeff Beliveau and infielder Jake Elmore have elected free agency after losing their 40-man spots with the Rays, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports on Twitter. Beliveau impressed in 2014, striking out 28 batters and allowing just seven earned runs in 24 frames, but missed most of 2015 after undergoing shoulder surgery. The 28-year-old Elmore, meanwhile, managed to rack up a career-high 158 plate appearances last year in Tampa Bay, but he slashed just .206/.263/.284.
  • Also hitting the open market is infielder Hernan Perez, who the Brewers outrighted, per a club announcement. He’ll qualify as a minor league free agent. The 24-year-old got a 90-game audition in Milwaukee after being claimed from the Tigers, but slashed .270/.281/.365 and apparently did not force his way into the organization’s plans.
  • Finally, injured righties Casey Sadler and Brandon Cumpton have lost their 40-man spots with the Pirates, as Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tweets. Neither has spent a significant amount of time in the big leagues, though Sadler has debuted and Cumpton did throw just over 100 frames over 2013-14. Both will factor as rotation and pen depth if and when they are ready to return from their respective arm surgeries.

Mariners, Rays Swap Miller, Morrison, Farquhar For Karns

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The Mariners and Rays have announced a three-for-three trade that sends infielder/outfielder Brad Miller, first baseman Logan Morrison, and reliever Danny Farquhar from Seattle to Tampa in exchange for righty Nate Karns, lefty C.J. Riefenhauser, and minor league outfielder Boog Powell.

With the trade, new Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has made a striking first major move. The key piece, of course, is the 27-year-old Karns, who put up a solid 147-inning campaign last year, working to a 3.67 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9. He’ll bring ample, cheap control with him to the Mariners, even if he regresses (and/or fails to progress). Evaluative statistics such as SIERA (3.90) were not terribly high on his first complete big league season, though he’d still be quite a productive asset if he pitches at that level. It’s worth noting that Karns was shut down late in the year with a mild forearm strain, though he also obviously passed a medical exam since the trade is now official.

Jun 29, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Nathan Karns (51) throws a pitch during the third inning against the Cleveland Indians at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Seattle also gets Riefenhauser, a 25-year-old southpaw. He has yet to do much of use in the big leagues (6.30 ERA in twenty innings), but has put up stellar run prevention numbers in the upper minors.

And Powell is not an inconsequential piece of the deal, either. He had been rated 13th on MLB.com’s list of the best Tampa Bay prospects. That publication credited him for excellent plate discipline and on-base skills, as well as solid defensive versatility across all three outfield positions. Powell, 22, slashed a productive .295/.385/.392 while splitting time evenly between Double-A and Triple-A (though he was better at the lower-level stop).

Prying Karns loose required Dipoto to part with some appealing assets. Miller, a talented 26-year-old, won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2019 season. He had been unable to hold down the everyday shortstop job with the M’s but did product an above-average (when park-adjusted) batting line of .258/.329/.402 last year. He also contributed 11 home runs and 13 steals. Miller has some experience in the outfield (as well as at second and third), and figures to be a versatile piece for Tampa. Defensive metrics are not fond of his work in center field, though they have viewed him as an average (1.9 career UZR) to slightly below-average (-9 career Defensive Runs Saved) fielder at short.

Morrison has had his ups and downs, and didn’t exactly light the world on fire at the plate last year with a .225/.302/.383 slash and 17 home runs over 511 plate appearances. But he has shown more at times, including in 2014, and ought to provide a first base/DH option for the Rays. He is projected by MLBTR to earn $4.1MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility.

Farquhar, 28, is another interesting player. He has shown the ability to put up big strikeout totals out of the pen, racking up double-digit K-per-nine tallies in both 2013 and 2014 and contributing 71 innings of 2.66 ERA ball in the latter of those seasons. But he struggled badly last season, dropping back to 8.5 K/9 while permitting 5.12 earned runs per nine in his 51 frames. Farquhar was more effective in Triple-A, though he tallied 38 innings at that level, making for rather a heavy usage over the course of the year.

For the Mariners, Karns will obviously slot into a rotation that figured to be in need of at least one or two more arms with Hisashi Iwakuma hitting the open market. He fits the profile — young, controllable, power arm — of the pitchers that Dipoto had been busy adding with the Angels. It’s unclear as of yet whether the addition of Karns will impact the team’s efforts to bring back Iwakuma.

Meanwhile, parting with Miller and LoMo takes away two regular contributors from last year’s Seattle roster, though it also frees up the payroll commitment that the latter would have required. The team could go with highly-regarded prospect Ketel Marte and/or the still-young Chris Taylor at short. Slugger Mark Trumbo sits atop the first base depth chart for now, but he’s projected to take home a $9.1MM arb payday before hitting the open market after the season. The resurgent Jesus Montero, who also hits from the right side, represents another option at the position. And it’s still possible to imagine the club exploring the free agent and trade markets for an upgrade.

On the Tampa Bay side of things, Karns was one of several quality young starters on the staff, which can still run out Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Matt Moore, and Erasmo Ramirez. (Ramirez, of course, came to the Rays in yet another trade with the Mariners last winter.) Alex Cobb will eventually re-join that group, which will ultimately be supplemented by other promising pitchers who are rising through the ranks.

Miller joins Logan Forsythe and another former Mariner, Nick Franklin, in the middle infield mix. (While Forsythe thrived last year, Franklin scuffled in the majors — though he put up good numbers during his time at Triple-A.) It’s certainly possible that Miller will step in at short for the departing Asdrubal Cabrera, though Tim Beckham and (eventually) Daniel Robertson could also factor there.

Adding Morrison is certainly an interesting element of this trade. He’s not exactly cheap for the budget-conscious Rays, who are losing DH John Jaso to free agency. But he could be a better value proposition than the team might’ve found on the open market. It’s also possible to imagine him stepping in at first base if the club tries to find a taker for James Loney and some of his $8MM salary.

This was not the first trade for several of the names involved in tonight’s deal. Karns went to the Rays from the Nationals before the 2014 season in exchange for a package that included Jose Lobaton, Felipe Rivero, and Drew Vettleson. That same winter, the Mariners added Morrison from the Marlins in a swap for righty Carter Capps. Powell was a part of last winter’s Ben Zobrist/Yunel Escobar deal. And Riefenhauser has changed hands several times, by way of trade and waiver claim.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rays Notes: Payroll, Archer, Bloom

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The Rays have noticed the Royals’ aggressive approach at the plate, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. President of baseball operations Matt Silverman noted the past trend towards plate patience which aimed at knocking out the opposing starter as early as possible. Now teams have taken a more aggressive tack in response to elite bullpens. “Today bullpens are incredibly formidable and a number of teams are adjusting and taking a more aggressive approach throughout and trying to hit the strikes they see.”

Here’s more from the Rays:

  • Topkins expects the Rays payroll to decline in 2016. He views the $72MM spent in 2015 as a ceiling. Since the club has 11 arbitration eligible players, it would seem they may need to cut costs in other areas. Asdrubal Cabrera’s one-year, $7.5MM deal is the only major contract coming off the books.
  • By qualifying for Super Two status, Rays ace Chris Archer has locked in a $25.5MM guarantee. Archer signed a six-year contract extension at the start of the 2014 season. If he had failed to qualify for arbitration this offseason, the guarantee on his deal would have reduced to $20MM.
  • Rays vice president Chaim Bloom is expected to remain with the club after interviewing for a couple open GM positions. However, Bloom has been increasingly linked to GM openings, so it wouldn’t surprise me if the Blue Jays considered him with regard to their newly vacated position. That’s only my speculation. The Rays are also likely to promote internally to fill the position left by former director of pro scouting Matt Arnold.

Reds Outright Seven Players

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Here are the day’s outright assignments:

  • The Reds have announced that seven players were outrighted off the club’s 40-man roster (h/t to C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer, on Twitter). On the chopping block were pitchers Nate Adcock, Collin Balester, David Holmberg, and Josh Smith, outfielders Brennan Boesch and Jason Bourgeois, and infielder/outfielder Kris Negron. Adcock, Balester, Boesch, and Bourgeois have all seen reasonably frequent MLB action but have bounced around quite a bit in recent years. Negron has appeared in each of the last three seasons in Cincinnati, compiling a .220/.296/.353 batting line over 270 plate appearances. Holmberg was acquired as part of the pre-2014, three-team deal that sent Heath Bell (from the Diamondbacks) and Ryan Hanigan to the Rays. He’s functioned as a depth starter, walking nearly as many batters as he’s retired via strikeout over his 58 1/3 MLB innings with Cincinnati. Smith made his MLB debut last year, allowing 25 earned runs in 32 2/3 innings of work, but found himself squeezed out by Cincinnati’s recent influx of young, upper-level pitches.

Coaching Notes: Hickey, Butcher, Murphy, Tigers

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The Rays have signed pitching coach Jim Hickey to a three-year extension, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Hickey’s previous deal ran through the 2016 campaign, but Topkin writes that, presumably, the new deal replaces that one and offers Hickey a raise. Under Hickey, the Rays have continually turned out one of the best pitching units in all of Major League Baseball despite a huge amount of turnover due to the team’s payroll constraints and difficulty retaining players as they become more expensive via arbitration and free agency.

A few more notes on some prominent coaching positions throughout the Majors…

  • The Diamondbacks have hired Mike Butcher as their new pitching coach, according to a team press release. Butcher has spent the past nine seasons as Mike Scioscia’s pitching coach in Anaheim, but the Angels announced recently that he would not return for a 10th season. Butcher will replace Mike Harkey, who was fired by the D-Backs following the 2015 campaign.
  • Pat Murphy, who served as the Padres’ interim manager following Bud Black’s dismissal in San Diego, will become the Brewers’ bench coach, reports Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Murphy will join manager Craig Counsell in Milwaukee, whom he coached more than 20 years ago at Notre Dame. Milwaukee had interest in adding Murphy to its coaching staff prior to his hiring in San Diego, Lin notes. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt said earlier this month that adding Murphy to the coaching staff was a strong possibility for the Brewers.
  • The Tigers have narrowed their search for a pitching coach to a handful of candidates, including recently reassigned Nationals pitching coach Steve McCatty, reports MLive.com’s Chris Iott. McCatty has previously served as Detroit’s pitching coach, and he’s joined among the finalists by former Tigers pitcher A.J. Sager, Iott hears. Detroit is closing in on a decision, per Iott.

List Of 2016 Super Two Qualifiers

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Presented below is the list of players who have qualified for Super Two status for arbitration purposes this year. (Service time in parentheses.) As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently tweeted, the service time cutoff is 2.130. You can find arbitration salary projections for these players right here.

Click here to read more about how the Super Two concept works. Note that, as the link shows, the originally projected service time cutoff moved down as things played out over the course of the season. That brought some notable names into early arbitration qualification — namely, Calhoun and Rendon — which could have a big impact on their earning power in potential extension scenarios.

It’s also important to bear in mind that several of the players listed above have already agreed to long-term extensions: Gyorko, Lagares, and Archer. Notably, the size of the guarantee provided by Archer’s contract is dependent upon his Super Two status. By reaching it (as had been expected), he keeps a $25.5MM overall guarantee. That total would have been reduced to $20MM otherwise.

That contract structure reflects the importance of reaching Super Two status. Doing so not only bumps a player’s salary a year early, but sets a higher floor for future paydays.

East Notes: Marlins, Jennings, Harvey, Red Sox

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After being told he would not retain his job as manager, Dan Jennings was set to return to the Marlins last week to resume GM duties. However, Jennings had questions about his current role and responsibilities that president David Samson couldn’t immediately answer, as Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes.  Samson has asked Jennings to stay home while he discusses the situation with owner Jeffrey Loria.  The Marlins haven’t pulled their offer for Jennings to return as GM, Jackson writes, and he and Loria are expected to talk in the coming days.  Jennings might have less influence in the front office than he did before, and that’s a result of Loria “listening to more voices.”  In addition to president/baseball operations Michael Hill, farm system chief Marc Delpiano and execs Mike Berger and Jeff McAvoy also have sway.

Here’s more out of the East divisions..

  • More from Jackson, who writes that the Marlins’ payroll of $68MM “is expected to rise slightly” in 2016.  In 2015, Miami had the lowest payroll in baseball.
  • With whispers that the Mets will listen this winter on offers for their top three starters, Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald writes that it’s “not impossible” that New Englander Matt Harvey will end up in the Red Sox’s rotation next season.  Of course, there was more speculation surrounding Harvey’s Mets future during the innings-limit controversy and it’s hard to picture a deal happening as he gets set to take the hill in Game 1 of the World Series.
  • Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times opines that it’s fair to wonder if Andrew Friedman erred in not bringing Joe Maddon to the Dodgers after both men left the Rays.  The Dodgers, of course, are searching for their next manager after parting ways with Don Mattingly.

Cafardo On Murphy, Price, Davis, Cueto

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with eight major league officials about the players trending up and trending down as free agency approaches.  It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the list of players trending in the right direction starts with Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy.

“Obviously, he’s not going to be as hot as he’s been in the postseason, but he plays positions where his power plays well,” an American League GM told Cafardo. “There are teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who need a second baseman. Others, like the Angels, need a third baseman, where he also plays. He’s going to be sought-after and get a five-year deal at around $75MM. Maybe more.”

Murphy, who can also play at first base, would also have appeal for the attractive to the Orioles, Astros, Padres, and Tigers, Cafardo writes.

Here’s more from today’s column..

  • The feeling is that a seven-year, $210MM deal for David Price would be fair, Cafardo writes, though some are concerned that Price won’t live up to that kind of deal unless he goes somewhere that he’s comfortable. The incumbent Blue Jays could be that place, but the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs are also listed as possibilities.  Price, 30, pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 regular season starts for the Tigers and Blue Jays this past season.
  • The group of eight anonymous scouts, managers, and GMs polled by Cafardo would not want to give Orioles bopper Chris Davis more than a five-year deal.  Of course, a team out there very well could. “In the heat of the negotiations and fearing someone else will get him, this will likely get beyond what everybody wants. Scott Boras is the agent, so we may be looking at seven years,” one scout remarked.  Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes profiled the two-time home run king and estimated that he’ll be in line for a six-year, $144MM pact.
  • Johnny Cueto had a rough second half after being traded to the Royals and one National League GM told Cafardo that a “few teams have scratched him off their list.”  Still, that GM estimates that Cueto can net a Jon Lester-type $155MM deal.  Recently, we learned that the Red Sox are mulling a serious push for Cueto.  The Marlins also like Cueto, but financial constraints will probably hold them back in that pursuit.
  • One GM told Cafardo that he wouldn’t give Royals outfielder Alex Gordon anything more than a three-year deal at $36MM-$38MM.  In addition to KC, Cafardo recently listed the Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and possibly the Red Sox as potential fits.
  • Nationals hurler Jordan Zimmermann didn’t have a great season, but he was listed by Cafardo as a player whose arrow is pointing upwards.  One NL scout praised Zimmermann’s work ethic and toughness.  At the end of the regular season, Zimmermann sounded like a player who knows that he’ll be changing teams.
  • One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.”  Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock.  The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.
  • Cafardo’s panel indicated that Scott Kazmir could get a three-year deal this offseason, but at a reduced rate because of his struggles with the Astros down the stretch.  The group of eight officials sees Kazmir getting $10-$12MM AAV over a three year period.  The Tigers are among the clubs with interest in the veteran left-hander, though Kazmir has also expressed a desire to return to Houston.
  • At least two teams have their top advisers and scouts looking at Rich Hill’s last four starts with the Red Sox to see if his emergence in 2015 is for real.  One AL scout who has done his homework on the left-hander praised the hurler for his confidence.
  • Cafardo identified the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, and Mariners as teams that could have interest in Orioles catcher Matt Wieters.  Of course, his market will be impacted by whether or not he receives a qualifying offer.  The Rangers will be among the teams with interest, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, but only if he does come with a QO attached.  In a recent MLBTR poll, 60% of readers said that the O’s should give Wieters a QO.
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