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Latest On Cuban Market

By Jeff Todd | February 13, 2015 at 7:56pm CDT

With the crop of six-year service time free agents thinning noticeably, attention has turned to the fascinating group of players readying to sign after leaving their native Cuba. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs has been among the most active observers on this still-developing segment of the market, and delivers a host of interesting information in his latest post on the subject.

While I recommend a full read of his work, here are some highlights:

  • Hector Olivera is the lone name who figures to have immediate impact. (Fellow middle infielder Jose Fernandez reportedly remains in Cuba after having been thought to have left with intentions of seeking a MLB deal.) McDaniel agrees with Baseball America’s Ben Badler that Olivera has the potential for immediate impact, but says there are significant doubts about his long-term prospects. For one, Olivera’s medical history is not just limited to sports injuries, but includes a significant case of thrombosis. Then, there is the fact that Olivera’s age cannot be confirmed with certainty and even some indications that scouts are questioning why he is “fatigued earlier in workouts than an athlete of his size, strength and age should.”
  • Ultimately, McDaniel concurs with Badler that Olivera is seeking and could obtain a $10MM+ annual guarantee. But McDaniel cautions that he expects it to run over just two or three seasons (with an outside chance at a fourth guaranteed year) with options and incentives included.
  • The other name making noise at the recent international showcase was Cuban righty Yadier Alvarez, who McDaniel has in the mid-to-upper 90s with a plus slider and promising change. The rest of the package checks out for his age, with McDaniel saying that Alvarez’s raw talent and progress to date is on the same level as the very best high school arms entering the draft. Alvarez expects to have him ready to sign in the next month or two and does not seem inclined to wait for the market to turn over on July 2nd, which would mean the Cubs and Rangers would not be eligible to sign him. (Should he wait to sign, Alvarez would lose the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, D’backs, and Angels as potential suitors.) While this particular market is in the very earliest stages of development, McDaniel says that Alvarez is plainly superior to Yoan Lopez, who just got a $8.25MM bonus from Arizona.
  • McDaniel also provides an update on 21-year-old infielder Andy Ibanez, who is seemingly no longer showcasing. That could mean that he is in the process of (or will soon be) sorting through offers. While the demand side of the equation is hard to peg in his case, McDaniel says he expects one of the bonus-busting teams listed above to land him at a potential cost of between $5MM to $12MM.
  • The most exciting name out there remains Yoan Moncada. Though there is not much new to pass on in his case, Badler does present some video of Moncada’s past plate appearances against several notable young arms. One executive tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links) that the bidding on Moncada could reach nine figures in terms of total investment (given the near-100% tax for signing him). Rosenthal also says that the Moncada case may be a catalyst for debate on the issue of how amateur rights are secured.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Los Angeles Angels New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Hector Olivera Yadier Alvarez Yoan Lopez

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International Notes: Balfour, Moncada, Olivera, Alvarez, Kang

By Jeff Todd | February 11, 2015 at 12:54pm CDT

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tells the emotional story of Rays reliever Grant Balfour and his father David, who is battling pancreatic cancer. Baseball Australia’s Hall of Fame will induct the younger Balfour even before his playing career is over so that his father — a notable figure in the Australian game — can be there to participate. The piece is well worth your time.

Here are the latest reports on the international scene:

  • The Diamondbacks are among the teams expected to watch touted young Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada later this week, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports. Arizona has already gone well over its international bonus pool and has been one of the most active teams on the international market. The Cubs, too, will take a look at him (as have many other, previously-reported teams), though they would be unable to offer him more than a $250K bonus unless he waits until after July 2 to sign.
  • Hector Olivera drew hundreds of scouts to his final public showcase, as Ben Badler of Baseball America reports on Twitter, and seemingly did not disappoint. Per Badler, the Dodgers, Giants, Athletics, and Padres were well-represented in attendance. You’ll want to read through Badler’s Twitter feed (some earlier portion of which was compiled here by Baseball America) for more information on Olivera’s impressive display as well as some other notes from the international showcase.
  • Right-hander Yadier Alvarez, just 18, is the latest Cuban citizen drawing buzz. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweeted recently that he is pushing a high-90s fastball, and today Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs reports (Twitter links) that his buzz “checks out.” Not only does the young righty work in the mid-90s and touch even higher, he has a “more than usable” change to go with it. That will likely result in a big payday, per McDaniel, who also notes in a tweet that it may take a month or two for him to be cleared to sign.
  • Former KBO superstar and current Pirates infielder Jung-ho Kang might just be capable of putting up huge numbers in the big leagues, according to the analysis of Dan Farnsworth of Fangraphs. Farnsworth breaks down Kang’s “upper-echelon swing” and compares it to some notable MLB power bats, concluding that the Korean ballplayer could break out with a .280+ batting average and 25 or more home runs in his first MLB season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Athletics Chicago Cubs Los Angeles Dodgers Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Tampa Bay Rays Grant Balfour Hector Olivera Jung-ho Kang Yadier Alvarez Yoan Moncada

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Minor Moves: Jimenez, Fornataro, Davies, Elmore, Alderson

By Steve Adams | February 9, 2015 at 6:49pm CDT

Here are today’s minor moves from around the league…

  • The Phillies have outrighted lefty Cesar Jimenez to Triple-A, according to the International League transactions page. Despite inking a one-year deal to avoid arbitration back in October, Jimenez lost his roster spot to Chad Billingsley. He had strong results last year both in the bigs and upper minors, working to a 1.69 ERA in 16 MLB frames and a 1.45 mark over 49 2/3 innings at Triple-A.
  • Likewise, the Nationals passed righty Eric Fornataro through waivers and assigned him to Triple-A, the club announced. Washington claimed Fornataro off waivers from the Cardinals earlier in the offseason, then designated him to make room for Casey Janssen. The 27-year-old reached the bigs last year for the first time, but spent most of his season working to a 2.57 ERA in 56 Triple-A innings.
  • The Yankees have inked right-hander Kyle Davies to a minor league deal, Sweeny Murti of WFAN reports on Twitter. Davies, 31, has worked in the minors over the past two years with the Twins and Indians organization, tossing 154 1/3 innings of 3.91 ERA ball last year. He has seven years in the bigs on his resume, though he owns a career 5.59 ERA with 6.4 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9.
  • The Rays announced that they’ve signed utility man Jake Elmore to a minor league deal and invited him to Major League Spring Training. The 27-year-old Elmore elected free agency last week after being outrighted by the Pirates. He spent last season with the Triple-A affiliates for the Reds and the A’s (plus a brief MLB stint with Cincinnati), batting .281/.376/.345. Elmore’s most extensive MLB experience came with Houston in 2013, when he batted .242/.313/.325 in 136 plate appearances. Elmore played every position on the diamond with Houston that season, and he even pitched and caught in the same game.
  • Right-hander Tim Alderson signed a minor league deal with the Nationals, according to the team’s transactions page. San Francisco selected Alderson 22nd overall in 2007, and in the 2008-09 range, he was one of the organization’s top pitching prospects, alongside Madison Bumgarner. Alderson twice ranked in Baseball America’s Top 100, but his career stalled after he was flipped to the Pirates in the Freddy Sanchez trade of 2009. Now 26, Alderson has a lifetime 5.02 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 129 Triple-A innings, and a 4.24 ERA in his minor league career as a whole.
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Tampa Bay Rays Transactions Washington Nationals Kyle Davies Tim Alderson

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AL East Notes: Rays, Orioles, Blue Jays

By | February 7, 2015 at 8:30pm CDT

Through the Joe Maddon era, the Rays were known for employing different lineups and looks every day. Expect more stability in the day-to-day lineup under new manager Kevin Cash, writes Mark Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Maddon averaged 137 lineups per season over his five year tenure. Cash hopes to set a couple basic lineups based on opposing pitcher handedness. His key players should have an idea of where they’ll hit, which Cash believes is better for the players. Here’s more from the AL East.

  • The Orioles have 11 players who could be eligible for free agency next fall, reports Rich Dubroff of CSN Baltimore. Dubroff examines the likelihood of each player returning beyond 2015. Steve Pearce may be the best fit on a short-term extension. Others like Matt Wieters, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, and Chris Davis may play their way out of town. In the case of Davis, another rough season could open a buy low opportunity. He’s set to earn $12MM next season.
  • The Blue Jays upgraded the roster without addressing their deficiencies, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith for USA Today. Despite notable additions of Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin, the bullpen, second base, and center field remain as potential problems. The outfield is probably the best off, with prospect Dalton Pompey expected to fill the void. The bullpen could be addressed internally, but there are also several decent relievers on the free agent market. Second base looks dicey. Devon Travis may eventually fit, but Maicer Izturis and Ryan Goins will have to hold the fort in the meantime.
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Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays Kevin Cash Steve Pearce

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East Notes: Jaso, Yankees, Flores

By charliewilmoth | February 7, 2015 at 10:03am CDT

This year will mark the first Spring Training of John Jaso’s career where he won’t be working out as a catcher, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. “It’s definitely going to be different,” says Jaso. “I have no idea. The Big Papi program? I don’t know. … This will be kind of the first time for me.” Topkin notes that the Rays could use Jaso at catcher if there’s an emergency, but he’ll spend most of the season at DH after having concussion issues in each of the last two seasons. The Rays acquired Jaso and two prospects from the Athletics in the Ben Zobrist deal last month, and president of baseball operations Matt Silverman said at the time that he wanted to put Jaso “in the best position to succeed.” Potentially preventing injury by moving Jaso out from behind the plate would certainly help with that. The Rays could also use Jaso at first or in the outfield. Here’s more from the East divisions.

  • GM Brian Cashman said on WFAN Friday that the Yankees had finished their “heavy lifting” this offseason, Brendan Kuty of NJ.com notes. Previous reporting had indicated that the Yankees might pursue in James Shields, but Cashman’s comments indicate that isn’t the case. As Kuty suggests, the idea that the Yankees won’t be a top bidder for Shields is consistent with their approach to the offseason so far — they re-signed Chase Headley and added Andrew Miller, but they’ve otherwise steered clear of top free agents after adding Jacoby Ellsbury, Masahiro Tanaka, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran last offseason.
  • Wilmer Flores isn’t listening to criticism about the Mets’ shortstop situation, Matt Ehalt of the Record writes. The Mets didn’t add a shortstop this winter and are heading into the spring with Flores as their likely starter, leading to plenty of second-guessing from commentators and fans. “People doubt a lot of people,” says Flores. “I’m not worried about that. I’m just going to go out and play.” Flores hit .251/.286/.378 last season, but he’s hit well in the high minors, and the Mets like his offensive potential. His defense remains open to question, although UZR has liked his glove work in small sample sizes in his first two partial seasons in the Majors. As Mike Petriello wrote for Fangraphs last month, concerns about the Mets’ shortstop situation might be somewhat misplaced. The position is weak throughout the Majors, and Steamer projects Flores will be the 19th most valuable shortstop by WAR in the big leagues in 2015, ahead of some of the top options available this offseason, like Asdrubal Cabrera and Stephen Drew.
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New York Mets New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays James Shields John Jaso Wilmer Flores

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Quick Hits: Fielder, De Aza, Maddon, Scherzer

By Jeff Todd | February 6, 2015 at 11:27pm CDT

Prince Fielder is one of several players whose hoped-for return to past production levels will go a long way toward determining the near-term fate of the Rangers. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News provides an interesting profile of Fielder, who says he is recharged, newly appreciative, and raring to go for 2015.

Here are a few more notes from around the league:

  • The Orioles are headed toward an arbitration hearing with outfielder Alejandro De Aza, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. Executive VP Dan Duquette explains that the club informed De Aza it had made him its best offer and would take a “file to go” strategy from that point forward. He expressed surprise that the team’s $5MM proposal was not accepted, noting that there had been discussions of a two-year deal as well. De Aza filed at $5.65MM, which actually falls shy of the $5.9MM that MLBTR and Matt Swartz projected. Baltimore’s arbitration strategy was actually the first topic covered by Kubatko in his recent appearance on the MLBTR Podcast.
  • MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said today that the league’s investigation into possible tampering by the Cubs into then-Rays manager Joe Maddon is still in progress, as ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers reports. Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and Maddon’s agent, Alen Nero, have both insisted that nothing untoward occurred, but it appears that MLB will take its time and cover the matter thoroughly before coming to any conclusions.
  • Max Scherzer’s departure from the Tigers appears to have been all but a formality from the point that he rejected the club’s $140MM offer last spring, as the righty explained to MLB.com’s Jason Beck. Scherzer said that he wasn’t interested in holding contract talks during the season, and that the club was not interested in negotiating when Scherzer’s camp “reached out” over the offseason. Indeed, Scherzer said that both he and Rick Porcello realized some time ago that the club was likely going to undergo a lot of turnover in the coming years, which has indeed been the case.
  • As for his choice of the Nationals, Scherzer gave some further details on how the end game went down: “Of the teams that were really down to the end, the Nationals gave me the best opportunity [to win]. So because of that, that’s the recent why I told Scott [Boras] at the end, ’Let’s just negotiate with the Nationals.'”
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Baltimore Orioles Chicago Cubs Detroit Tigers Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Washington Nationals Alejandro De Aza Joe Maddon Max Scherzer Prince Fielder

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Jose Molina To Miss “Long, Indefinite Period” After Knee Surgery

By Jeff Todd | February 6, 2015 at 5:57pm CDT

Free agent backstop Jose Molina says that he expects to be out of action for a “long, indefinite period” with an upcoming knee surgery scheduled, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter.

Molina, 39, has fifteen years of big league action on his resume. He appeared in 80 games last year with the Rays, slashing a career-low .178/.230/.187. That historically unproductive offensive line was out of character for his career, though Molina carries only a .608 career OPS.

Of course, Molina has long been regarded as a preternaturally good pitch framer. That statistically-supported reputation surely would have landed him another opportunity, but it appears that his (as-yet unknown) injury and procedure will prevent that. Whether the aging veteran will be able to engineer an eventual return remains to be seen.

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Tampa Bay Rays Jose Molina

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AL East Notes: Red Sox, Masterson, Rays, De Aza

By Steve Adams | February 6, 2015 at 10:34am CDT

The Red Sox are likely done adding to their Major League roster for the 2015 season, GM Ben Cherington told reporters, including John Tomase of WEEI.com, yesterday. “I would expect the group we have for spring training is in place and I would be surprised if there were any additions,” said Cherington. “I couldn’™t completely rule out a non-roster deal with someone, but we feel good about where we are with our position player and pitching group, so this is probably the group you’™ll see when we take the field in Fort Myers.” As Tomase notes, Cherington again ruled out the possibility of signing James Shields or making a significant run at Cole Hamels, as Tomase’s WEEI colleague Rob Bradford noted last month. Boston has added Rick Porcello, Justin Masterson and Wade Miley to its rotation this offseason, with Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez joining the lineup.

Here’s more from the AL East…

  • Masterson told Bradford earlier this week that he was surprised to be completely pain-free in a pre-Spring Training bullpen session. As Masterson explains, after he tore an oblique muscle last winter he did not have any scar tissue removed, which likely resulted in the pain he felt in his early spring bullpens. “I just figured I needed to loosen up, but it never did. Coming in right now compared to last year? It’™s huge.” Masterson feels that early pain trickled down into his knee and hips, serving as a significant detriment to his 2014 numbers. Boston gave Masterson a one-year, $9.5MM contract this offseason with the belief that he can bounce back to his 2013 form and help lead their revamped rotation.
  • While the Cubs insist that there was no tampering at play in their hiring of manager Joe Maddon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that the Rays insist that they do have evidence to the contrary. Maddon signed a five-year deal with the Cubs in early November, just 10 days after opting out of his deal with the Rays (though word that an agreement had been reached broke just seven days after his opt-out).
  • The Orioles and Alejandro De Aza are headed for an arbitration hearing, GM Dan Duquette conceded today in an appearance on 105.7 The Fan radio (h/t: MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko). Duquette said that he felt the team made a “very, very strong” offer to De Aza shortly before figures were exchanged, but no agreement was reached. De Aza filed for a $5.65MM salary, while the team came back with a flat $5MM offer, as can be seen in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Tampa Bay Rays Alejandro De Aza Joe Maddon

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Yoan Moncada Market Notes

By Jeff Todd | February 3, 2015 at 11:44pm CDT

With the evening’s news that prized young Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada is free to sign, additional information has begun to roll in. It isn’t hard to see why he has generated so much attention. As Ben Badler of Baseball America explains, Moncada may not have quite the certainty of an otherwise generally comparable prospect such as Corey Seager, but could reasonably be valued in the same range as — and, indeed, ahead of — a young player as heralded as Miguel Sano. That would make Moncada one of the best dozen or so pre-MLB properties in the game.

Here’s the latest:

  • Moncada is expected to sign soon, reports MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, although he does have workouts scheduled with individual teams through the middle of this month. The list of teams he has already worked out for does not appear to have been expanded upon from prior reports, with Sanchez noting (via Twitter) that the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Rays, Tigers, and Brewers have all had private looks.
  • With Moncada now eligible to sign, and a long stretch remaining before the July 2 market flips over, Badler tweets that the Cubs and Rangers are probably out of the mix. Moncada could still theoretically wait to sign with one of those teams — each of which is currently prohibited from paying all but relatively small international signing bonuses for blowing their allotment in past seasons — but that seems rather unlikely.
  • Some clubs believe the Dodgers are a “strong favorite” to add Moncada, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets. Los Angeles has made no secret of its intention to pursue the talented 19-year-old.
  • Another expected front-runner, the Red Sox, have remained fairly tight-lipped about Moncada, as Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports.
  • Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski confirmed that his club had expressed interest and held a workout for Moncada, but otherwise would only acknowledge that Moncada is a talented player, as James Schmehl of MLive.com reports.
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Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Detroit Tigers Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers New York Yankees San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Yoan Moncada

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Minor Moves: Jake Elmore, Robert Zarate

By Jeff Todd | February 2, 2015 at 9:12pm CDT

Here are the day’s minor moves:

  • After his recent outright, infielder Jake Elmore has elected free agency rather than accepting an assignment with the Pirates, according to the International League transactions page. The 27-year-old utilityman will be on the move yet again, this time after losing his 40-man spot to Jung-ho Kang.
  • In addition to confirming the previously-reported signings of Ronald Belisario and Alexi Casilla, the Rays announced today that lefty Robert Zarate has been signed to a minor league deal with a big league camp invite. (Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune has the full story on the team’s spring non-roster invites.) The 28-year-old worked to a 5.11 ERA with 12 strikeouts and ten walks in 24 2/3 inings this winter in his native Venezuela. He has traveled a difficult-to-interpret path, having fallen out of the Blue Jays system after 2008 despite solid numbers and surfaced briefly with the NPB’s Hanshin Tigers over 2012-13.
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