Gammons On A’s, Pirates, Royals, Rays
Starting pitching is one of the most valuable assets in the game and, as Peter Gammons explains at MLB.com, small-market teams usually have to rely on the draft to obtain it. Here are Gammons’ latest notes from around the league…
- A's GM Billy Beane says his current rotation, a group that’s more or less untouchable, could be as good as Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito were. Trevor Cahill has “become one of the best pitchers in the game,” according to Beane.
- "Let's face it, no small-market team can afford to go into the market to get starting pitching," Beane told Gammons. "To survive and compete, you have to draft and develop pitching, or go out and get it before it's on the Major League radar screen."
- Gammons reports that some expect the Pirates to take Virginia left-hander Danny Hultzen with the first overall pick this June. Click here for MLBTR's Q&A with Hultzen.
- Georgia Tech Lefty Jed Bradley will likely disappear within the first ten picks of the draft, and Connecticut righty Matt Barnes will likely be a top-15 selection.
- The Royals are looking for a college starter who can arrive in the Major Leagues and make an impact in the rotation soon.
- Royals GM Dayton Moore agrees that you need pitching to go along with premium position players. “They're not going to win if we don't find young, affordable pitching," Moore said.
- The D’Backs, who hold two of the first seven picks this year (#3, #7), will take at least one arm early on and the Rays are also likely to take a number of pitchers with some of their many high picks.
Unusual Early Results For The Rays’ Remade Bullpen
Rafael Soriano, Joaquin Benoit, Dan Wheeler, Randy Choate, Grant Balfour and Chad Qualls all hit free agency last offseason, which created lots of uncertainty and a shortage of relievers for the low-budget Rays. Executive VP of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman acknowledged from the beginning of the offseason that adding "a meaningful number of bullpen arms" was a top priority for the winter.
One fifth of the way through the season, the Rays' bullpen has been effective, while relievers such as Soriano and Benoit have struggled for their respective new clubs. Led by Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta, Juan Cruz and Adam Russell, newcomers have accounted for 78% of the bullpen's innings this year. Now that Jake McGee is back in the minor leagues, Andy Sonnanstine is the lone member of Joe Maddon's 'pen that pitched for the 2010 team that won the AL East.
Low-risk, low-budget free agents (Farnsworth, Peralta and Cruz) the spoils of the Jason Bartlett trade (Russell, Cesar Ramos and Brandon Gomes) and a waiver claim (Rob Delaney) have combined with two holdovers (Sonnanstine and McGee) to post a 2.69 ERA through 87 innings of work. That bullpen ERA is good for third-best in baseball, as is the .582 OPS allowed by the 'pen so far. No bullpen has allowed fewer walks than the Rays (34) and only the Mariners (3) have allowed fewer homers than Tampa (4).
But there are indications that the Rays shouldn't expect these results from their new 'pen all season. Their relievers are last in the majors with 51 Ks and 5.3 K/9 and they're second-last in innings pitched (87) and BABIP (.215). Perhaps most telling of all is their 4.41 xFIP (also second-last in the majors), which is nearly two runs higher than their ERA.
Outstanding production isn't sustainable with some of the worst peripherals in the league, so it appears likely that the group's performance will drop off. But given the losses the Rays sustained last winter, it's impressive that Friedman's new collection of relievers has been this effective 20% of the way through another season.
Felipe Lopez Clears Waivers
THURSDAY: Lopez cleared waivers and accepted an assignment at Triple-A, according to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times.
TUESDAY: The Rays designated infielder Felipe Lopez for assignment to make room on the active roster for Evan Longoria, tweets the Tampa Tribune.
The Rays had signed Lopez to a minor league deal in February, and his contract was purchased on April 3rd when Longoria hit the DL. Lopez hit .222/.263/.347 in 76 plate appearances and further frustrated the Rays by not running out multiple grounders. The 30-year-old has been used all over the infield in his 11 big league seasons.
Olney On Rays, Baldelli, Dodgers
The Rays have 11 of the first 75 selections in the upcoming June draft, which means they could infuse their highly-regarded farm system with another group of top prospects. "If they hit it right on just half of those picks," a rival executive told ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, "then this draft will set them up for years to come." Here’s the latest on the Rays’ draft and more from around the majors:
- Rocco Baldelli and former Yankees pitching coach Dave Eiland are scouting players for the Rays in anticipation of the draft, according to Olney.
- The Rays will take the best players available when they select, instead of entering the draft with a pre-determined approach (for example, loading up on college arms).
- Olney hears that Frank McCourt’s financial problem is “serious and it is immediate.” The Dodgers owner has reached a “tipping point," according to Olney and is close to “rock-bottom.”
Draft Notes: D’Backs, Rays, Rendon, Bauer
A year ago, everybody knew Bryce Harper was going to be the first overall pick in the draft. The year before that, Stephen Strasburg was the clearcut favorite to be the top selection. This time, there's no obvious candidate to go first overall. Here's the latest on the draft, with five weeks to go until the big day:
- ESPN.com's Keith Law hears that D’Backs GM Kevin Towers is seeing Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Dylan Bundy, Trevor Bauer, Bubba Starling and Danny Hultzen in anticipation of the draft (Twitter link). Arizona selects third and seventh overall this year, so it's not surprising that Towers is scouting the top available players.
- Rays scouting director R.J. Harrison told Joe Lemire of SI.com that he hadn't had any extra picks to work with before last year. A bevy of ranked free agents left the Rays for other teams last offseason, which means that Tampa Bay has 11 of the first 75 selections this June. "We're not going to get up all wound up and create something out of this, other than to stick with our process and evaluate our players properly," Harrison said.
- Cole, high school shortstop Francisco Lindor, Hultzen and Rendon top the list Jon Heyman of SI.com creates with the help of a number of scouting directors.
- Heyman hears that UCLA right-hander Trevor Bauer is "shooting up the board" and could become a top-five pick, along with his rotation mate, Cole.
- Check out my interview with Rendon from last week for his thoughts on the upcoming draft. Here's our series of Draft Prospect Q&As.
Rosenthal On Mariners, Bautista, Machado, Rays
The depth of the Indians’ rotation is their biggest question, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Now that Carlos Carrasco and Mitch Talbot are on the disabled list, the Tribe’s other options are being tested. Here’s Rosenthal’s latest from around the league:
- The Mariners have the resources to bring in additional veterans when they want to, according to Rosenthal.
- Jose Bautista, one of the top players in the game right now, is impressing just about everyone, including his own skipper. “His game awareness is as good as you’re going to get,” manager John Farrell told Rosenthal. “His ability in that regard takes him to another level."
- A scout told Rosenthal that Manny Machado “looks like a man playing with little boys.” The Orioles selected the 18-year-old shortstop prospect with the third overall pick in last year’s draft and he has a 1.090 OPS in Class A.
- The Rays may need to upgrade over Casey Kotchman at first base, but a definitive improvement may be difficult to find. The Brewers are likely to keep Prince Fielder, as Rosenthal points out.
East Notes: Braves, Rays
Some links pertaining to a few Eastern division teams for your Sunday reading:
- MLB has suspended Braves' pitching coach Roger McDowell for two weeks without pay and fined him following his controversial interactions with a fan on April 23, tweets David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution.
- The Rays' 10 picks in the first 60 of this year's draft are the most since Montreal had 11 of 84 in 1990, writes Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times. Tampa is currently in the midst of a massive scouting effort to prepare for their unprecedented amount of draft picks. Hopefully their picks turn out better than the Expos' — Rondell White was the most notable player of the bunch.
- In a separate article, Topkin examines the slow starts of several former Rays including Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Rafael Soriano, and Joaquin Benoit.
Tomase’s Latest: Felix, Hawpe, Rays
John Tomase from the Boston Herald has some notes about several Major League topics in his latest article:
- Tomase reminds us that at the 2009 deadline, the Red Sox reportedly offered the Mariners any five of the following prospects in exchange for Felix Hernandez: Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Michael Bowden, Josh Reddick, Yamaico Navarro, Nick Hagadone, Felix Doubront, and Justin Masterson. While a Boston official disputed the specific names, Tomase says the reports were in the ballpark.
- Regarding a trade though, Tomase quotes King Felix himself as saying that he wants to stay in Seattle: "I don’t know what’s going to happen. I’m not trying to think about it. I’d love to stay here (with the Mariners). I’m part of Seattle now and I’d like to be in Seattle."
- San Diego's Anthony Rizzo, acquired in the Adrian Gonzalez trade, is off to a blazing start at Triple-A. Rizzo has posted a monstrous line of .400/.471/.744 with seven homers, eight doubles, and a triple through 102 PAs, but despite that production the Padres aren't giving up on Brad Hawpe yet. Manager Bud Black cites Hawpe's career success, but it'll be hard to ignore his .149/.194/.194 line much longer.
- Manny Ramirez's abrupt retirement had many questioning a Rays' lineup that was struggling to score runs, but as Tomase points out, the Rays have gone 14-5 since Manny called it quits. The Rays were 0-6 with Manny on board.
Tomase's article also features several more quotes from Felix on his appreciation for Seattle as well and is a good read all-around.
Price, Kershaw Likely To Redefine Market
C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle and (possibly) C.C. Sabathia aren’t the only left-handed starters pitching for contracts in 2011. Sure, they’re the ones hitting free agency, but this season is an important one for the bank accounts of David Price and Clayton Kershaw, too.
No, they aren’t eligible for free agency, but they are nearing salary arbitration, their first chance for a major payday since signing seven-figure bonuses as first round picks. Various agents and arbitration experts around MLB say they expect the southpaws to redefine the market for first-time arbitration eligible starters this offseason if they stay healthy and continue pitching well.
To do so, Price and Kershaw will have to pass current record holder Dontrelle Willis and Jered Weaver in the $4.3MM range (though Weaver won’t mind, as his salary will skyrocket well into eight-figure territory this offseason). Price (pictured) and Kershaw will need formidable seasons to have superior numbers to the ones Weaver had after 2009 and justify precedent-setting salaries. So far, so good for the southpaws; both are healthy and off to strong starts.
Click here to view relevant career stats for Weaver, Price and Kershaw.
At this point, Weaver has a distinct edge in stats such as starts, wins, innings and quality starts (vital stats for starters in the arbitration process). Kershaw will be able to catch L.A.’s other ace in every one of those categories except for wins if he continues his current pace. Since Kershaw’s ERA is half a run better and he allows fewer hits while striking out more batters, his representatives at Hendricks Sports should be able to argue convincingly that he has earned a salary north of $4.3MM.
Price, on the other hand, won’t catch Weaver or match Kershaw in starts, innings or quality starts. Like Kershaw, his ERA is considerably better than Weaver’s and unlike Kershaw he has award recognition (a second place finish in the 2010 Cy Young voting) and postseason success (3.93 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 in the playoffs) on his side.
Most importantly, Price is working from a $2MM base salary because of the deal he and agent Bo McKinnis negotiated when Price was the top pick in the nation four years ago. The 25-year-old’s high base salary will provide him with leverage and figures to boost his salary into record territory, well beyond Weaver.
Kershaw and Price should both top Weaver and Willis and establish a new market for elite first-time arbitration eligible pitchers, but how high can they go? Tim Lincecum filed for $13MM as a first-time arbitration eligible pitcher before agreeing to a two-year deal last offseason. He had two Cy Young awards at the time, which makes him a poor point of reference for just about any pitcher. Kershaw and Price can forget about asking for $13MM for now.
Jonathan Papelbon technically holds the record for first time arbitration eligible pitchers with a $6.25MM salary. However, arbitrators treat starters and relievers differently, so Papelbon is hardly a better point of reference than Lincecum. Barring the unexpected, Price and Kershaw will not be able to match Papelbon's $6.25MM salary, according to every agent and arbitration analyst surveyed.
“If you are Kershaw's agent, you not only have to beat Weaver – which I think he can – but you somehow have to justify that Kershaw is almost $2MM better than Weaver,” one said. “That can't happen without a significant market shift.”
Not one person surveyed by MLBTR suggested either Price or Kershaw is headed for $6.25MM in 2012, a strong indication that they' aren't set to shatter Weaver's first year mark by $2MM or more.
The early consensus is that Kershaw’s salary figures to sit in the $5-5.5MM range, while Price’s salary will be near the $6MM mark. Either pitcher could sign an extension, instead of following Weaver’s example and going one year at a time (click here for Tim Dierkes’ take on a possible extension for Price).
If they do go year to year, both Price and Kershaw are on track to shoot past Weaver and into the $5-6MM range. It would establish a new record for first-time arbitration eligible pitchers, re-set the market for baseball’s next generation of aces and prime Kershaw and Price for even bigger paydays in the future.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
Stark On Millwood, Nationals, Fuld
ESPN.com's Jayson Stark breaks down the possible implications of expanded playoffs before providing some rumblings from around the league. Here they are:
- Even though Kevin Millwood has won both of his minor league starts and posted a 1.29 ERA, scouts say he doesn’t look very good. Millwood, whose fastball is averaging 85 mph, can opt out of his contact with the Yankees this Sunday.
- Rival teams are eyeing the Nationals’ catching depth, but they’re finding that after missing two seasons with labrum surgery, Jesus Flores isn’t ready.
- Sam Fuld has become an important piece for the Rays, but the Cubs expected to move him last offseason, according to Stark. Fuld had a history of getting injured, was behind Kosuke Fukudome and Tyler Colvin on the depth chart and was out of options and when the Cubs sent him to the Rays.