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Looking For A Match In A Kevin Kiermaier Trade

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Back in March 2017, the Rays signed Kevin Kiermaier to a six-year, $53.5MM contract extension with the intention of locking in the Gold Glover as a fixture in the Tampa Bay outfield.  As that contract enters its final guaranteed year, the team’s plan came to fruition…sort of.  Kiermaier’s bat never took the expected leap forward, as he has hit .243/.307/.399 with 43 homers over 1817 plate appearances since the start of the 2017 season, translating to below-average (93 wRC+, 94 OPS+) offensive production.  He has also played in only 486 of a possible 708 games in that five-season stretch due to a multitude of injuries.

And yet despite the missed time and the lack of consistent hitting, Kiermaier has still been worth 10.3 fWAR over the last five seasons, in large part because he remains arguably the sport’s best defensive outfielder.  As per Fangraphs’ value metrics, Kiermaier has been worth $82.5MM from 2017-21, more than twice as much as his real-world earnings over the same period.

So in that sense, the Kiermaier extension has worked out for the Rays, and his presence (or lack thereof, when on the injured list) certainly hasn’t kept the team from enjoying quite a bit of on-field success.  But for a team with such a limited payroll as Tampa Bay, any player making an eight-figure salary who is providing anything less than superstar-level production might not be a fit in the Rays’ financial framework.  Indeed, it can be argued that if Kiermaier had been healthier over the last five years, the Rays might well have traded him long ago, given how often Kiermaier’s name has been whispered in trade rumors.

Heading into 2022, however, teams interested in acquiring Kiermaier face a bit less of a risk since he is only guaranteed one season’s worth of money.  The center fielder is set to earn $14.5MM in 2022 — $12MM in salary, and the $2.5MM buyout of a $13MM club option for 2023.  If Kiermaier can stay healthy and productive, then, a team could even exercise that option and keep him around for another year, adding a bit of a potential bonus to trading for the 31-year-old (who turns 32 in April).

“Less risk” doesn’t translate to no risk, of course, given Kiermaier’s checkered injury history.  Counting on him to be an everyday center fielder just doesn’t seem feasible both health-wise and perhaps based on Kiermaier’s numbers, such as his .663 career OPS against left-handed pitching.  If a team has a fairly inexpensive, right-handed hitting center field option already in place as a platoon partner, however, this club could take the plunge on Kiermaier and just hope that anything beyond two-thirds of a season would be gravy.

It is also quite possible that a Kiermaier trade would involve more than just Kiermaier.  The Rays could certainly package him together as part of a larger multi-player swap, or maybe just include a prospect along with Kiermaier in order to better entice another team to absorb that full $14.5MM salary.

From Tampa Bay’s perspective, Kiermaier’s center field role could be relatively easily filled by Manuel Margot, a strong defender in his own right.  The Rays’ starting outfield would then project as Margot, Randy Arozarena, and Austin Meadows, with Brett Phillips and Jordan Luplow as bench depth, Brandon Lowe and Vidal Brujan both capable of playing in the outfield, and top prospect Josh Lowe knocking on the door.  This abundance of outfield options makes Kiermaier all the more expendable.

This season’s free agent market is very short on true center fielders, as the class consists of Starling Marte and then a large group of players who can play center in a pinch, but are better suited for regular work in the corners or at other positions.  With pickings this slim on the center field front, teams in need of help up in the middle are more apt to check in with the Rays about Kiermaier, particularly clubs who miss out on Marte, or weren’t keen on meeting his asking price in the first place.

Let’s first omit the teams who either aren’t planning to contend in 2022 (the Orioles, Pirates, Diamondbacks), teams who may be more focused on payroll cuts than contending (Athletics, Reds), or the teams who are already have pretty solid center field options, or at least options that are comparable to what Kiermaier can provide — the Angels, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Guardians, Padres, Royals, and Tigers.  With these 13 clubs out of the way, let’s focus on how the remaining 16 teams break down as potential fits for a Kiermaier swap…

Teams Linked To Starling Marte

  • Phillies: The club parted ways with Odubel Herrera, and various in-house options (Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn, Mickey Moniak, Luke Williams) haven’t proven themselves capable of regular work at the big league level.  While the front office has implied that they have some room to spend, acquiring Kiermaier would be a relatively inexpensive way of addressing a major center field need, while allowing the Phillies to make a bigger splurge at another position.
  • Rangers: Texas is ready to spend this offseason, so Kiermaier’s salary wouldn’t be an issue for the Arlington club.  His shorter-term contract also gives the Rangers more flexibility with their outfield for any future moves next winter, when Texas might be making more of a full-on push to contend.  For what it’s worth, the Rays and Rangers have lined up on some notable trades in recent years.
  • Marlins: Kiermaier wouldn’t provide the hitting boost Miami is looking for, but there is obvious benefit to adding an elite defender to the outfield.  With Kiermaier providing extra coverage on the grass, the Marlins could be more open to adding a big hitter who is less-than-stellar with the glove (i.e. Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber) for a corner outfield slot.
  • Mets: The Amazins have long been looking for a true everyday center fielder, and Kiermaier would provide a hugely-needed defensive boost in the outfield.  One obstacle, however, could be that the Mets are already loaded with left-handed hitting outfield options.
  • Giants: Kind of an imperfect match, as San Francisco might feel they already have its own version of Kiermaier in Steven Duggar.  Signing Marte would be a more natural upgrade for the Giants’ center field needs, but Duggar is younger than Kiermaier, can provide maybe 80% of the same excellent glovework, and might have some untapped hitting upside.
  • Astros: A little similar to the Giants’ situation, as the Astros might feel the combination of Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, and Jose Siri can provide Kiermaier-esque production at a fraction of the price.  However, Meyers will miss at least some time at the start of the season recovering from shoulder surgery, and Astros GM James Click knows Kiermaier well from Click’s time working in Tampa Bay’s front office.
  • Yankees: Since Kiermaier and Aaron Hicks have equally spotty injury histories, New York might want a more stable option to replace or platoon with Hicks.  The Rays could also balk at dealing Kiermaier to a division rival.

Other Teams With Outfield Needs

  • Rockies: Kiermaier would look good in patrolling the vast Coors Field grass, and he would only help the run-prevention efforts of a Rockies team that was quietly one of the league’s better defensive clubs.  Garrett Hampson could act as a right-handed hitting platoon partner with Kiermaier in center, though some of the Rockies’ other outfielders (Raimel Tapia, Sam Hilliard, Yonathan Daza) could be even more expendable in other trades.
  • Nationals: Lane Thomas impressed after being acquired by the Cardinals, but since Thomas is a right-handed hitter, he could be paired with Kiermaier in center, or he could see time in left field.  If Washington did use Thomas in a more everyday capacity in left, a Kiermaier/Victor Robles could also work for center.
  • Mariners: Seattle technically already has an outfield surplus that will become even deeper once star prospect Julio Rodriguez makes his big league debut.  What the M’s don’t really have, however, is a true center field option, since Jarred Kelenic looks more suited for corner outfield work and Kyle Lewis is returning from major knee surgery.  Kiermaier would bring veteran experience and a great glove to the outfield, and the Mariners and Rays have a long history of swinging trades with each other.
  • Cubs: While Chicago could have been slotted in the “not sure how hard they’ll be trying to contend” group, the Cubs did have trade talks with the Rays about Kiermaier this past summer, even if Kiermaier’s inclusion may have been more about salary offset than a direct interest.  Still, Kiermaier would certainly fit as a regular center fielder, with Rafael Ortega then moving into something of a fourth outfield role.  Ultimately, the Cubs hope to have top prospect Brennen Davis seeing regular time in center field before the season is over, so Kiermaier would be something of a short-term fix that the Cubs might not feel they need to make with Ortega already around.
  • Braves: The World Series champions will have Ronald Acuna Jr. back at some point to join an outfield mix that includes Adam Duvall, Cristian Pache, Drew Waters, and Guillermo Heredia.  There is also the lingering uncertainty surrounding Marcell Ozuna, who will likely face a suspension under the MLB/MLBPA domestic violence policy.  Bringing Kiermaier to center field would help solidify the group, but as we saw last year, Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is pretty adept at rebuilding an outfield on the fly, so he might want to see how his current options play out before deciding if upgrades are necessary.

More Creative Options

  • Dodgers: Chris Taylor could leave in free agency and Cody Bellinger might not be a part of the Dodgers’ future, given his struggles over the last two regular seasons.  Therefore, the center field position might be in need of some help, and Dodgers president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman was the Rays’ GM when Kiermaier was initially drafted and developed in Tampa.
  • Red Sox: Speaking of former Rays executives now running other front offices, Chaim Bloom could see Kiermaier as a way of upgrading the shaky Red Sox defense.  Enrique Hernandez’s excellent center field glovework was a bright spot within that defensive corps, but with Kiermaier on board, Hernandez would be freed up for his intended super-utility role, with second base perhaps becoming his new regular position.  As noted earlier with the Yankees, trading Kiermaier within the division might not be Tampa’s preference.
  • White Sox: Another position change would be in the offing here, as while Luis Robert has looked pretty good as a defensive center fielder, he could slide nicely into a right field role if Kiermaier was acquired.  Robert could also return to center field when a lefty starter is on the mound, thus opening up playing time for Andrew Vaughn or Adam Engel.
  • Twins: Acquiring Kiermaier might only be a possibility for Minnesota if Byron Buxton is traded….or, maybe the Twins and Rays could arrange a trade involving both Kiermaier and Buxton.  Such a deal might not really fit for either team in center field specifically, so it would need to be a pretty interesting multi-player swap to make this scenario anything more than a longshot.

Needs Align For Rays, A’s In Honeywell Trade

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As you may have noticed during the 40-man roster hubbub, former top prospect Brent Honeywell Jr. was traded from the Rays to the Athletics in exchange for cash considerations. For the Rays, losing Honeywell was simply a roster crunch issue, as well as a desire to give him more opportunities, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. “We wanted more than anything to give him an opportunity to go somewhere and get a chance to pitch on a regular basis,” said Kevin Ibach, Rays senior director of pro personnel and pro scouting, per Topkin.

Honeywell made his way back from multiple arm injuries to make his Major League debut in 2021, but his future is simply too uncertain for the Rays, who are looking to maximize their competitive window in a tightly-contested AL East. The A’s, on the contrary, are looking to scale back their payroll. Honeywell, therefore, fits the bill for them as a high-ceiling, high-risk arm who bring a touch of intrigue to the roster.

The 26-year-old is out of options, so he’ll need to make the team out of spring training to avoid being exposed to waivers. He’s likely to pitch a swing role out of the bullpen, though much depends on what how many players the A’s ultimately end up dealing this winter.

The Rays have been typically proactive in clearing 40-man roster space this winter, dealing away Mike Brosseau, Louis Head, and prospect Tobias Myers in addition to Honeywell and southpaw Ryan Sherriff, who was claimed off waivers, and Adam Conley, who elected free agency after being designated for assignment. The Rays are not coy about trading prospects like Honeywell and Myers, especially as a means of “paying it forward,” or acquiring younger prospects for players that need to be on the 40-man roster.

Rays Select Four Players

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The Rays announced that they’ve added four players to their 40-man roster. The players being added are infielder Jonathan Aranda, infielder/catcher Ford Proctor, and right-handed pitchers Calvin Faucher and Tommy Romero. Following some earlier trades today, the roster is now full at 40 players.

None of this group cracked the Rays’ midseason top 30 prospects at Baseball America. Tampa Bay’s farm system is one of the league’s deepest, though, and it stands to reason clubs would’ve had interest in even some of the lower-ranked names in the organization.

Proctor, 24, is a former third-round pick who has posted strong minor league numbers over his pro career. He hit .244/.381/.419 in 381 Double-A plate appearances this past season. Perhaps most interestingly, he saw significant work behind the plate in addition to his customary middle infield role. Aranda mashed at a .325/.410/.540 clip over 322 Double-A plate appearances while playing all over the infield.

Faucher and Romero have both missed plenty of bats in the high minors. The former, who works primarily as a reliever, was acquired from the Twins as part of the Nelson Cruz trade this summer. The latter came over from the Mariners in 2018 as part of the Denard Span deal.

Guardians Designate Seven Players For Assignment

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The Guardians announced Friday that they’ve designated outfielders Daniel Johnson and Harold Ramirez; righties Justin Garza and J.C. Mejia; and lefties Kyle Nelson, Alex Young and Scott Moss for assignment.

Cleveland also added a whopping 10 players to the 40-man roster, headlined by top prospects Tyler Freeman and George Valera. Also added to the 40-man roster are Brayan Rocchio, Richie Palacios, Steven Kwan, Jose Tena, Cody Morris, Bryan Lavastida, Konnor Pilkington and Jhonkensy Noel.

Finally, the Guardians have also acquired right-hander Tobias Myers from the Rays in exchange for minor league infielder Junior Caminero, tweets FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen. Myers will also be added to the 40-man roster.

Johnson and Ramirez have been part of a revolving door in an uncertain Cleveland outfield in recent seasons. Neither has hit well enough to lock down a permanent roster spot, although Ramirez did start more than half the team’s games in 2021. Ramirez would have the right to elect minor league free agency if he clears waivers.

Mejia logged significant action as a depth starter this year but struggled. Garza, Nelson and Young saw some bullpen work, while Moss has yet to make it to the major leagues.

The massive turnover highlights the high minors depth Cleveland has stockpiled in recent seasons. The selection of ten prospects is highly atypical, but it’s a testament to the Guardians’ scouting and development staffs that they’ve managed to accumulate so much talent they’re afraid other teams might jump on. That’s particularly true on the position player side, with much of this group being hitters with advanced bat-to-ball skills who could factor onto the big league roster in relatively short order.

Freeman, Valera and Rocchio might be the most notable. All three appeared on FanGraphs’ Top 100 list entering the 2021 season. They’ve all topped out at Double-A Akron, where each posted above-average offensive performances despite being 22 years old or younger. Valera plays center field, while Freeman and Rocchio are middle infielders. Palacios is another infielder with great high minors numbers, while Lavastida is regarded as one of the better catching prospects in the minors.

A’s To Acquire Brent Honeywell From Rays

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The A’s are acquiring right-hander Brent Honeywell from the Rays, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). Tampa Bay will receive cash in return, reports Shayna Rubin of the San Jose Mercury News (on Twitter).

It’s a notable low-cost pickup for the A’s. Honeywell, 26, was considered one of the game’s most promising pitching prospects on his way up the minor league ladder. He appeared on Baseball America’s top 100 list entering a staggering five consecutive seasons from 2016-20. That speaks both to Honeywell’s talent and the repeated injury troubles that have kept him from making a major league impact to this point.

For all his acclaim from evaluators, Honeywell’s big league resume consists of just 4 1/3 innings across three outings this past season. He spent the bulk of the season working in a swing role with Triple-A Durham, tossing 81 2/3 innings of 3.97 ERA ball but only fanning 20% of opponents. That’s a far cry from the near-30% strikeout percentages he’d run for a good chunk of his early minor league career.

Recent struggles notwithstanding, there’s little harm for Oakland in taking a flier on Honeywell. The A’s have one of the league’s thinner farm systems, giving them space on the 40-man roster. With the Rays seemingly in a perennial state of roster crunch, there was an opportunity for Oakland to squeeze an affordable, big league ready starter with pedigree out of a deeper organization.

Honeywell is out of minor league option years, so he’s a good bet to break camp with the A’s in 2022. Otherwise, Oakland would have to designate him for assignment and make him available to other clubs themselves.

Rob Manfred Discusses Possibility Of A Lockout

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The current collective bargaining agreement expires in less than two weeks, with the possibility of an offseason freeze looming. If a new deal isn’t agreed upon when the current one wraps up at 11:59 pm EST on December 1, the general expectation within the industry is that owners will lock the players out — resulting in a ban on transactions until another agreement is reached.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred addressed the state of the labor situation when speaking with reporters (including Evan Drellich of the Athletic and Jeff Passan of ESPN) this afternoon. The commissioner stopped short of calling a lockout an inevitability, but he certainly seemed to suggest that course of action was on the table. Manfred drew a distinction between the impact a winter transactions freeze would have on the sport versus that of a work stoppage that lingers into next season.

“I can’t believe there’s a single fan in the world who doesn’t understand that an offseason lockout that moves the process forward is different than a labor dispute that costs games,” he said. As to whether the sides still had hope of hammering out a new CBA before December 1, Manfred said the league was “committed to continuing to offer proposals and suggestions in an effort to get to an agreement before” that date, but acknowledged that “time is becoming an issue.”

Technically, the expiration of the CBA wouldn’t necessitate a lockout. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explored in August, the sides continued to conduct offseason business during the last winters (1993-94 and 94-95) that proceeded without a CBA in place. The players went on strike when no agreement was reached during the 1994 season, and that year’s World Series was eventually cancelled.

Manfred implied the league wouldn’t want to run the risk of negotiating without an agreement this time around, pointing to the ’94 strike and trends in other professional sports leagues as justification. “I don’t think ’94 worked out too great for anybody,” Manfred said. “I think when you look at other sports, the pattern has become to control the timing of the labor dispute and try to minimize the prospect of actual disruption of the season. That’s what it’s about: It’s avoiding doing damage to the season.”

The commissioner’s comments come amidst a background of a very slow back-and-forth between the league and Players Association. The MLBPA has made two core economics proposals over the past six months; the league has made just one, although it made an alteration to its August offer last week. It doesn’t seem there’s been much progress on economics issues, with the MLBPA pursuing such goals as raised luxury tax thresholds and earlier arbitration eligibility. The league, meanwhile, has pushed for lowered luxury tax markers and an age-based system for free agency eligibility that could delay the path to the open market for the game’s brightest stars, among other things.

While much of Manfred’s focus was unsurprisingly on the core economic structure of the game, he also touched on a few other topics. The commissioner expressed optimism about the league’s ongoing testing of pre-tacked baseballs, suggesting they hoped to test the prototype in Spring Training 2022. Manfred didn’t rule out the possibility of using a pre-tacked ball in regular season games at some point next season. He also voiced support for the possibility of a pitch clock being implemented in upcoming CBA talks, saying that “owners remain very interested in” introducing a clock at the major league level after testing it in minor league games for years.

Manfred also addressed the respective stadium situations in Tampa Bay and Oakland. He again suggested Las Vegas could be a viable landing spot for the A’s if they’re unable to work out a deal in the Bay Area. Manfred confirmed that the Rays have made a proposal to the league’s executive committee regarding the franchise’s hopes for splitting home games between Tampa and Montreal. (John Romano of The Tampa Bay Times explored the issue at greater length earlier in the week). The executive committee has yet to weigh in on the topic, Manfred said this afternoon.

Finally, the league announced the previously-reported decision to provide housing for minor league players in 2022. Josh Norris of Baseball America shed some light on the details, reporting that teams will now be responsible for leases and utility agreements for players on minor league contracts who make less than $20K per month. Norris adds further details on the base amenities (including utilities, electricity and WiFi) that acceptable residences must include. His full piece is a worthwhile read for those interested in the specifics of the new policy.

Rays Have Reportedly Made Record Extension Offer To Wander Franco

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Wander Franco’s big league career spans just 70 games and 104 days, but Yancen Pujols of El Caribe, a news outlet in Franco’s native Dominican Republic, reports that the Rays have put forth what would be a record-setting contract offer to the 20-year-old shortstop (Twitter thread). Exact terms aren’t known, but Pujols indicates that the offer is at least ten years in length and would land somewhere in the $150-200MM range. That’d go well beyond the eight-year, $100MM contract Ronald Acuna Jr. signed in Atlanta — the current record for a player with under a year of Major League service time.

The Rays are among the many teams who regularly show interest in early-career extensions. That’s largely a necessity for them to retain homegrown stars, given the payroll restrictions ownership places on the front office. That said, while Tampa Bay has had some success in this regard in the past — Brandon Lowe, Evan Longoria, Matt Moore and Chris Archer all signed team-friendly extensions with under one year of MLB service time — the reported terms here would dwarf any contract ever handed out by the franchise, regardless of service time. (Longoria’s second extension — a six-year, $100MM pact — is the current franchise record.)

It’s easy to see why the Rays are so bullish on Franco’s long-term outlook. The consensus No. 1 prospect in all of baseball for two years prior to his debut, Franco burst onto the scene at 20 years of age and slashed .288/.347/.463 with seven home runs, 18 doubles, five triples and a pair of stolen bases through 308 plate appearances. In spite of that youth, Franco looked like he belonged almost immediately — at one point reaching base in 43 consecutive games. That mind-boggling stretch, which spanned from July 25 to Sept. 29, saw Franco post a combined .329/.398/.545 batting line with more walks (9.1%) than strikeouts (8.1%). Franco went on to finish third place in AL Rookie of the Year voting despite appearing in just 70 games.

The Rays waited until late June to call Franco to the big leagues, all but ensuring that he’d avoid Super Two status under the current iteration of the arbitration system (which could change, depending on ongoing labor negotiations). As things currently stand, Franco wouldn’t even be arbitration-eligible until after the 2024 season, and he wouldn’t reach the open market until the completion of the 2027 campaign. A contract of 10-plus years in length would buy out all of Franco’s arbitration seasons and lock in at least four would-be free-agent years — plus any additional option years that could potentially be tacked on.

On the one hand, it’ll be jarring for some to consider the possibility of guaranteeing such a weighty sum to a player with such minimal big league experience. On the other, fans need only look to San Diego to see what waiting until a couple years can do to the price tag on a player of this caliber. Fernando Tatis Jr., who also debuted at age 20 with similarly excellent results, didn’t sign an extension until he had two full years of service time in the books — at which point he secured a record 14-year, $340MM contract from the Friars. It’s hard to imagine the low-payroll Rays ever doling out a guarantee of the magnitude, so it’s understandable that they’d look to act earlier in Franco’s promising career.

Even if the two sides ultimately come to terms on something in this general neighborhood, Franco would figure to be years from seeing his salary spike. He’s currently set to make under $1MM in each of the next three seasons as a pre-arbitration player, and the contract structuring would likely reflect that reality — perhaps promising him a signing bonus and some low seven-figure salaries prior to his arb years before slowly ramping into the would-be free-agent portion of his deal. That would give the Rays cost certainty in the long-term while maintaining the type of early flexibility they still stand to enjoy from MLB’s present-day salary structure.

From Franco’s side of things, it’s a rather fascinating scenario to consider. It’s unfathomable for most of us to ever turn down an overture that would guarantee $150MM or more — particularly at such a young age. Then again, looking to the current free-agent climate in MLB, Franco can see both Carlos Correa and Corey Seager vying for contracts that guarantee them $300MM or more. Talk of a potential extension for 23-year-old Juan Soto, who has three-plus years of service, has elicited suggestions of $400MM or even $500MM.

Franco’s early debut puts him on that same type of earning trajectory — assuming he can indeed live up to the considerable hype surrounding him. He’d reach six full years of service time heading into his age-27 season, the same position in which Correa finds himself now (with nearly $27MM in career salaries already banked). Six years ago, talk of contracts in the $300-400MM range might have seemed far-fetched, but that’s no longer the case. In fact, six years ago, the largest contract ever given to a player with under a year of service time was Archer’s six-year, $25.5MM deal. Suffice it to say, what players consider attainable can change quite a bit in a span of six years.

Of course, forgoing an extension structure of this magnitude could prove overwhelmingly regrettable. Any player comes with the risk of major injury, and as touted as Franco was as a prospect, whether he’ll reach that sky-high ceiling remains to be seen. If he settles in as a quality regular but something less than a superstar, this type of offer may not present itself in future years. It’s also at least possible that current CBA talks impact his earning power for the worse; ownership has already proposed an age-based free agent threshold of 29.5 years (although that was an obvious nonstarter for the MLBPA due to exactly this type of player being harmed). If nothing else, it all makes for a fascinating thought exercise.

To be clear, there’s no indication an agreement is nigh. Quite the opposite, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that nothing appears imminent at this time. Pujols, meanwhile, reports that Franco’s camp is currently studying the offer and is expected to make a counteroffer at some point.

Talk of any major contract issued by the Rays will inevitably lead to some cynical remarks about how soon the player can expect to be traded, and cliche as they may be, such jabs are also rooted in historic precedent. It’s commonplace for the Rays to trade stars away once these early-career extensions feel less like bargains (e.g. Blake Snell, Archer, Longoria), but it’s also important to note that the Rays do seem well-positioned to make such a proposal. Lowe’s contract is the only guaranteed money on the books beyond the 2022 season, and by the time the 2025 campaign rolls around, Tampa Bay doesn’t have a single guaranteed dollar on the ledger.

It could nevertheless be difficult for Tampa Bay to ever commit a hefty eight-figure salary to a player on an annual basis, but if there’s one player for whom the Rays would try to make such an arrangement work, it’s likely Franco.

Gabe Kapler, Kevin Cash Named Managers Of The Year

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The Baseball Writers Association of America announced the results of Manager of the Year balloting this evening. Giants’ skipper Gabe Kapler was named the National League winner, while Rays’ manager Kevin Cash claimed his second consecutive win in the American League.

Kapler and Cash managed the best regular season team in the respective leagues. With balloting conducted before the start of the playoffs, voters are left to judge solely on clubs’ regular season bodies of work. In addition to posting their respective league’s best records, both San Francisco and Tampa Bay finished second in run differential (behind the Dodgers and Astros, respectively).

The Giants’ magical season was unexpected. While most preseason projections figured the Dodgers and Padres would battle for the NL West crown, San Francisco shockingly won a franchise-best 107 games to claim the top seed. That came with an aging core of position players on a team that had gone just 29-31 in 2020, making it all the more impressive that the Giants were able to consistently play at an elite level all year long. The team rewarded Kapler with a two-year contract extension last week.

Manager of the Year awards frequently come to skippers whose teams outperform expectations, so it’s little surprise Kapler fared well in the balloting. He appeared on 29 of 30 ballots, garnering 28 first-place votes and one second-place finish. The other first-place votes went to Craig Counsell of the Brewers and Mike Shildt, who was nevertheless dismissed by the Cardinals after the season. Counsell and Shildt finished second and third, respectively, while the Braves’ Brian Snitker and Dodgers’ Dave Roberts also picked up some down-ballot support.

While the Giants’ great season was unexpected, the Rays’ success shouldn’t have come as much surprise. Tampa Bay also had the AL’s best record in 2020, a season in which they claimed their second pennant. That said, the Rays enter each season in a loaded AL East that includes the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays, each of whom have significantly higher payrolls.

Nevertheless, the Rays continue to churn out talented players and leverage match-ups to great success. Tampa Bay has posted a winning record in four consecutive seasons, and the club has a cumulative 554-478 mark (.537 winning percentage) since Cash took the helm in 2015. That run of consistent success contributes to Cash becoming the first back-to-back Manager of the Year winner since Bobby Cox in 2004-05.

 

Cash’s hold on the balloting wasn’t quite as resounding as Kapler’s. The Rays’ skipper appeared on 28 of 30 sheets, garnering 19 first-place votes. Scott Servais of the Mariners (five), Charlie Montoyo of the Blue Jays (three), Dusty Baker of the Astros (two) and Alex Cora of the Red Sox (one) each garnered at least one first-place nod themselves, with Servais and Baker joining Cash as finalists. In addition to that group of five, the White Sox’s Tony La Russa and the Tigers’ A.J. Hinch garnered some down-ballot support.

See full balloting in each league.

Jonathan India, Randy Arozarena Win Rookie Of The Year Awards

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Reds second baseman Jonathan India and Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena have been voted the 2021 Rookie of the Year in the National League and American League, respectively, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America announced Monday evening.

India, 24, won in near-unanimous fashion, securing 29 of 30 first-place votes. Marlins lefty Trevor Rogers took the lone other first-place vote, as well as 26 second-place votes. Arozarena, meanwhile, received 22 of 30 first-place votes, securing a decisive victory of his own.

The No. 5 overall draft pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, India had actually seen his prospect stock slide a bit coming into the 2021 season, as he’d dropped off the majority of Top 100 rankings of note. He apparently didn’t get that memo, however, as the former Florida Gators standout took the second base job in Cincinnati and ran with it.

The Reds deserve some credit for sticking with India early on, as he scuffled through a rough first month of the season, hitting just .239/.316/.358 in April. He improved those numbers across the board in May but still checked in below the league average in terms of overall offensive output. With a couple months of big league reps under his belt, however, India found his stride and never looked back.

India slashed .303/.425/.455 in the month of June and was considerably above the league average with the bat in each of the season’s three subsequent months. From June 1 through season’s end, India raked at a .281/.390/.493 pace with a huge 11.9% walk rate and a 22.5% strikeout rate. On the whole, he ended the year with a hearty .269/.376/.459 batting line, adding in 21 home runs, 34 doubles, two triples and a dozen steals (in 15 tries). With the glove, both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating pegged him as average at second base. Statcast’s Outs Above Average was much more bearish, grading him at minus-7, but both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs alike graded him out at 3.9 Wins Above Replacement. Cincinnati can now control India through 2026.

Arozarena, 26, burst onto the scene with one of the most impressive postseason showings in recent memory during the Rays’ 2020 World Series run and retained his rookie eligibility into 2021. While he didn’t dominate at quite those same levels this season, the former Cardinals farmhand turned in a robust .274/.356/.459 batting line with 20 home runs, 32 doubles, three triples and 20 steals (in 30 tries) through 604 plate appearances. Baseball-Reference valued him at 4.1 wins above replacement, while FanGraphs pegged him at 3.3.

Acquired alongside Jose Martinez in the trade that sent top pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore to St. Louis, Arozarena has cemented himself as an everyday outfielder and a building block in the Tampa Bay lineup for the next few seasons. In addition to his strong blend of power and speed at the plate, Arozarena drew positive defensive marks in both Defensive Runs Saved (3) and Outs Above Average (1). Like India, he can be controlled all the way through the 2026 season.

India, Rogers and Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson took home the overwhelming majority of votes in National League balloting. Also receiving some stray third-place votes were Cubs infielders Patrick Wisdom and Frank Schwindel; Braves right-hander Ian Anderson; Pirates closer David Bednar; and India’s teammates Tyler Stephenson and Vladimir Gutierrez.

In the American League, it was Astros right-hander Luis Garcia taking second place on the strength of two first-place votes and 15 second-place votes. Arozarena’s teammate, Wander Franco, finished third place and garnered a pair of first-place votes. Rangers center fielder Adolis Garcia received three first-place votes but landed fourth overall, while Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase received the other first-place vote. Ryan Mountcastle of the Orioles, Shane McClanahan of the Rays and Alek Manoah of the Blue Jays all landed some second- and/or third-place votes as well.

A full breakdown of the National League voting and full breakdown of American League voting are available at the BBWAA’s web site.

Julio Lugo Passes Away

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Former major league infielder Julio Lugo has passed away after suffering what is believed to be a heart attack, his family tells Enrique Rojas of ESPN. He was 45 years old.

Lugo played in twelve major league seasons, suiting up for the Astros, Devil Rays, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cardinals, Orioles and Braves between 2000-11. He was the primary shortstop on the Red Sox’s 2007 World Series-winning team, part of a seven-year run as a regular at the position.

Lugo appeared in 120+ games in six of seven seasons between 2001-07 before transitioning into a utility role later in his career. Altogether, the slick-fielding infielder appeared in 1352 MLB games, hitting .269/.333/.384 with 80 home runs over 5338 plate appearances.

MLBTR sends our condolences to Lugo’s family, friends, teammates and loved ones.

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