Max Muncy Leaves Game With Apparent Wrist Injury
6:00PM: It looks “very unlikely” that Muncy will play in Wednesday’s wild card game, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Mike DiGiovanna of The Los Angeles Times). Roberts is hopeful that Muncy will be able to return at some point in the postseason if the Dodgers keep advancing.
3:24PM: Dodgers first baseman Max Muncy left today’s game following a collision at first base. After Jace Peterson put the ball into play, Peterson and Muncy collided while Muncy was attempting to catch the throw, with Muncy’s left arm taking the brunt of the contact. Muncy was in obvious pain while holding his wrist, and he was immediately removed from the game.
Losing Muncy just for the remainder of this all-important Game 162 is enough of a blow for the Dodgers, but at least at first glance, it looks like the type of injury that could put Muncy out of action for at least some of the playoffs. If Los Angeles isn’t able to secure the NL West today, the team’s postseason run could potentially end as early as Wednesday, when the Dodgers would face the Cardinals in the NL wild card game.
Beating the red-hot Cards would be even more difficult for the Dodgers if they were missing one of their star sluggers. Muncy is in the midst of another big season, entering today’s action with a .250/.369/.528 slash line and a team-leading 36 home runs.
If Muncy is indeed out of action, the Dodgers have enough depth to fill first base, even if there’s no simply way to replace Muncy. Cody Bellinger is the most obvious fill-in, except Bellinger has been struggling through a rough season. Albert Pujols has seen the second-most action at first base for L.A., though Pujols has mostly been limited to work against left-handed pitching, and veteran righty Adam Wainwright (Pujols’ former Cardinals) is the scheduled starter on Wednesday.
Dodgers Place Clayton Kershaw On 10-Day IL With Forearm Discomfort
6:04PM: More will be known once Kershaw undergoes more tests, but Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told MLB.com’s Juan Toribio and other reporters that the team is going ahead as if Kershaw’s 2021 season is over.
4:03PM: The Dodgers have placed Kershaw on the 10-day injured list with left forearm discomfort. Righty Mitch White was called up to take Kershaw’s spot on the active roster.
TODAY, 7:14AM: Things are not looking good for Kershaw, who looks like he might be “out for a while,” per ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Tests still must be completed, but Kershaw himself spoke of the injury, detailing it as similar to what he’s been dealing with all year, that quote provided in full here by ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez.
OCTOBER 1: Dodgers star Clayton Kershaw left this evening’s start against the Brewers in the second inning due to what the team called forearm discomfort (via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). Kershaw was tagged for three runs on five hits in that brief time, although his fastball velocity was in its customary 90 MPH range.
More will be known after further evaluation, but it’s an obviously concerning development. Any forearm injury is worrisome for pitchers, and Kershaw missed more than two months earlier in the season because of inflammation in the area. He returned from that IL stint on September 13 and was making his fourth start since coming back.
There’s no indication at this point that Kershaw’s in line for another extended absence. But it’s hard to imagine a more inopportune for such a development. The Dodgers entered play two games back of the Giants in the NL West, with a possibility of being eliminated from division contention tonight. Max Scherzer is lined up to start a potential Wild Card game, but Kershaw would no doubt be a key component of a potential NLDS pitching staff if he’s healthy. The three-time Cy Young award winner is slated to hit free agency this offseason.
Latest On Max Scherzer’s Free Agency
Max Scherzer will hit free agency for the second time in his career this winter. His last trip to the open market resulted in a seven-year, $210MM deal with the Nationals that turned out to be one of the best free agent investments in recent memory. Scherzer posted a sub-3.00 ERA in five of his six full seasons in Washington, and he’s performing right at peak level in his platform campaign.
The three-time Cy Young award winner has worked 179 1/3 innings across 30 starts, working to a 2.46 ERA/2.89 SIERA. Among the 123 pitchers with 100+ innings, Scherzer ranks 3rd in ERA, 2nd in SIERA, 3rd in strikeout percentage (34.1%), 2nd in strikeout/walk rate differential (28.9 percentage points) and 3rd in swinging strike rate (15.9%).
Scherzer got off to a typically strong start to the year with the Nats, and he’s only taken things to another level after being moved to the Dodgers alongside Trea Turner in a deadline blockbuster. Since landing in Southern California, he’s worked 68 1/3 frames of 1.98 ERA ball, punching out 33.6% of opposing hitters while walking a minuscule 3.0%. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has already declared Scherzer would get the ball in next week’s single-elimination Wild Card game if the Dodgers can’t track down the Giants in the NL West (via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic).
That continued dominance should position Scherzer to land the highest average annual value of any player on the market this offseason, with a chance he could threaten Gerrit Cole’s record $36MM AAV for free agent contracts. Scherzer’s age will keep him from coming anywhere close to Cole’s nine-year term, but he’s still in line for a strong commitment over multiple seasons. Scherzer, who turned 37 years old in July, is looking to land a deal that’ll take him into his 40’s, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link).
It’d register as a surprise if any club were willing to offer Scherzer an unprecedented deal in the realm of Cole’s record AAV over four seasons. But a three-year pact with a very strong annual salary indeed seems to be attainable. Scherzer’s former teammate, Justin Verlander, signed a two-year, $66MM extension with the Astros in March 2019 that took effect at the start of last season, his age-37 campaign. Verlander, who posted similar numbers in 2018 as Scherzer has this season, didn’t land a third year. But the Astros’ ace signed his deal a full season in advance of free agency without the benefit of an open market bidding. Scherzer, on the other hand, will have multiple suitors as the best-performing impending free agent pitcher.
And while Verlander’s extension has turned out poorly for the Astros — he’s thrown just six innings over the course of the deal because of an ill-timed Tommy John surgery — he still looks like a plausible qualifying offer candidate. Were the Houston front office to make him a QO (which is expected to land in the $19-20MM range), that’d bring Verlander’s potential earnings up to around $85-86MM over the three-season stretch from 2020-22. It’s not a perfectly analogous situation, of course, but it serves to highlight teams’ general willingness to pay a premium for an ace of that caliber, even as those players enter their late-30’s.
One potential wild card in the Scherzer free agent auction will be geography. At this summer’s trade deadline, he reportedly leveraged his no-trade rights to land with a West Coast contender, with the bidding ultimately coming down to the Padres and Dodgers. It’s possible he’ll prioritize staying out west in free agency, although there’s not yet been any indication that’s the case.
He’ll certainly have no shortage of interest, whether from teams in California or anywhere else. The game’s lowest spenders can safely be ruled out, since they’ll never sign a player who’ll command Scherzer’s level of annual salary. Virtually every pitching-needy contender with ample payroll capacity figures to at least be in contact with his representatives at the Boras Corporation. Where the future Hall of Famer winds up will be among the most fascinating storylines of the offseason.
AJ Pollock Will Narrowly Miss Triggering Ability To Opt Out Of Contract
Dodgers outfielder AJ Pollock is in the midst of one of his best seasons, having posted an excellent .301/.360/.532 batting line with 19 home runs, 27 doubles, a triple and nine stolen bases. That production would position the 33-year-old as one of the best outfielders on the free-agent market this winter, but MLBTR has confirmed that Pollock will fall just a few plate appearances shy of the threshold necessary to trigger an opt-out clause in his deal.
Pollock’s contract, signed in Jan. 2019, was a four-year, $55MM deal that covered the 2019-22 seasons with a player option for a fifth year in 2023. However, the contract also allowed Pollock to opt out of the 2022 season and receive a $5MM buyout if he hit one of two plate appearance milestones: 1450 plate appearances combined from 2019-21 or 1000 combined from 2020-2021.
Last year’s pandemic-shortened season threw a wrench into vesting clauses such as this one, but the league and the players association agreed to prorate plate appearances and innings pitched for the purpose of calculations such as this one. Pollock’s 210 plate appearances last season are thus multiplied by 2.7, meaning they account for 567 plate appearances toward that threshold. (MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored this possibility when Pollock returned from the IL last week.)
Pollock needed 433 plate appearances in 2021 to unlock that right to opt out, but he’s currently at 408 plate appearances with just four games to play. It’s nearly unfathomable that he’d manage to accumulate 25 trips to the plate in a span of four games. As such, it seems that a pair of hamstring strains for Pollock this season — one in his left leg in May and another in his right leg earlier this month — will cost him the opportunity to return to the open market in advance of his age-34 season.
Pollock will now be under contract for the 2022 season on a $10MM salary, after which he’ll have a $10MM player option or a $5MM buyout. To that extent, he’ll still control his own fate next offseason, but he’ll be doing so when he’s a year older and potentially coming off a weaker performance at the plate. Pollock’s contract does allow him to boost the value of that $10MM option as well; it’d increase by $1MM for reaching each of 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances next season.
Dodgers Activate Cody Bellinger From Injured List
The Dodgers reinstated outfielder Cody Bellinger from the injured list before this evening’s game against the Padres. First baseman Albert Pujols was placed on the COVID-19 injured list in a corresponding move. Pujols was recently vaccinated and is feeling side effects from his second shot, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Juan Toribio of MLB.com).
Bellinger missed a minimal amount of time due to a rib fracture. He’ll return to the roster, but Gavin Lux gets the start in center field tonight. A healthy Bellinger not being in the lineup for some of the Dodgers’ most important games of the year would’ve been inconceivable a few months ago, but the 2019 NL MVP has had a miserable season. In addition to three separate IL stints, Bellinger has struggled to a disastrous .159/.237/.291 line over 337 plate appearances. With the Dodgers hoping to erase a two-game deficit behind the Giants in the season’s final week, they’ll keep the two-time All-Star in a reserve role.
Pujols has hit at a league average level since latching on with the Dodgers after being released by the crosstown Angels in May. He’s done quite well against left-handed pitching and could be a key right-handed bench bat for manager Dave Roberts this postseason.
Yoshi Tsutsugo Is Finding His Stride In Pittsburgh
Expectations likely weren’t too high for most onlookers when Yoshi Tsutsugo signed with the Pirates last month. Pittsburgh was the third organization of the season for the 29-year-old Tsutsugo — a star with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball who’d struggled since signing a two-year contract with the the Rays. That contract guaranteed Tsutsugo a total of $12MM, but he never found his footing with Tampa Bay.
In 272 plate appearances as a member of the Rays, Tsutsugo batted just .187/.292/.336 with a 28.3 percent strikeout rate. He showed a bit of pop during the shortened 2020 season, at least, slugging eight homers and reaching base enough to register an even 100 wRC+ through 185 plate appearances (in spite of a poor .197 batting average). Things went much worse in 2021, as Tsutsugo went homerless with an increased strikeout rate and decreased walk rate through 85 trips to the plate. The Rays designated him for assignment on May 11.
A trade to the Dodgers didn’t bring about better fortunes. Tsutsugo appeared in only 12 games and went 3-for-25 without an extra-base hit and a dozen strikeouts. Los Angeles outrighted him off the 40-man roster in early July and released him by mid-August.
Enter the Pirates.
Pittsburgh is paying Tsutsugo the prorated league-minimum after signing him on Aug. 15, and since donning the black and gold, he’s quietly looked like the middle-of-the-order bat the Rays hoped to be signing in the first place. It’s a small sample, but Tsutsugo has flat-out mashed for the Bucs. In 117 plate appearances prior to today’s game, he’s turned in a .291/.368/.612 slash with as many home runs (eight) as he tallied in 303 plate appearances between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles.
It’s not just the long ball that’s driving the turnaround, either. Tsutsugo fanned at a 29.4 percent clip between the Rays and Dodgers, but that’s plummeted to 19.7 percent in Pittsburgh. He’s added seven doubles and a triple with the Pirates, too, bringing his extra-base hit total to 16 (just two fewer than his combined mark in his prior two organizations).
Like many other hitters in recent years, Tsutsugo has found some success by beginning to elevate the ball more regularly. His 42.4 percent ground-ball rate during his time between L.A. and Tampa Bay has dropped to just 33.3 percent with his new club. His infield-fly rate has dropped, his line-drive rate has risen a bit, and he’s improved his barrel percentage — even if his overall hard-hit rate has declined.
Defensively, the Pirates have played Tsutsugo in right field and at first base. The results in the outfield haven’t been great, which isn’t a huge surprise. He was billed as primarily a first baseman or left fielder upon coming over from Japan, but the Rays deployed him at both infield corners and in both outfield corners. Colin Moran‘s presence and the lack of a designated hitter in the National League has pushed Tsutsugo to the outfield too frequently, but it’s of course possible there will be a designated hitter in the NL next season, which would open some more avenues for Tsutsugo.
This all amounts to little more than a trial run with the Pirates, as Tsutsugo’s initial contract called for him to become a free agent after the 2021 season. That’s still the case, as noted by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette last month. One would imagine that a rebuilding team like the Pirates wouldn’t have taken a post-trade deadline look at Tsutsugo in the first place without some interest in retaining him beyond the current season, though. Even if he was viewed as a mere placeholder at the time, his play in Pittsburgh ought to have piqued the front office’s interest moving forward.
Improbable as it might’ve seemed a few weeks ago, they’ll now likely face competition in that regard. After all, this is a hitter who posted a combined .293/.402/.574 batting line with 139 home runs, 116 doubles, five triples, a 15.1 percent walk rate and a 20.4 percent strikeout rate in his final four seasons of NPB action. That includes a huge 2016 season, when Tsutsugo launched a career-high 44 home runs and slashed .322/.430/.680.
Given that Tsutsugo won’t turn 30 until November and is now starting to look a bit closer to that NPB form against Major League competition, it would only stand to reason that other teams would have interest. The expected advent of a universal DH can’t hurt his chances, if it indeed comes to fruition.
It’s possible Tsutsugo will simply prefer to return to Japan, where he’d undoubtedly garner interest from other NPB clubs. However, if he’s intent on carving out a career in the Majors, his late run with the Bucs should create opportunities to do just that — whether it’s back in Pittsburgh or with a fourth organization in three years.
NL Roster Notes: Braves, Pirates, Dodgers
Let’s check in on some roster moves filed before today’s slate of afternoon games…
- The Braves activated Touki Toussaint from the bereavement list and optioned the right-hander to Triple-A, the team announced. Toussaint could still prove useful in the Braves’ push for the postseason. A playoff role would likely have to come out of the bullpen, however. The 25-year-old logged 50 innings with a 4.50 ERA/5.79 FIP.
- The Pirates have reinstated David Bednar from the 10-day injured list and optioned Kyle Keller to Triple-A to create the open roster spot, per the team. Bednar has put together a solid season out of the Pirates’ bullpen, establishing himself as a high leverage arm for the Pirates with a 2.18 ERA/2.70 FIP over 57 2/3 appearances, chipping in three saves and 11 holds.
- The Dodgers recalled southpaw Andrew Vasquez and optioned outfielder Luke Raley, the team announced. Vasquez has made just two appearances for the Dodgers this season, tossing 1 2/3 scoreless innings after being acquired from the Twins at the August 31 deadline to trade players not on the 40-man roster. Raley has a .182/.250/.288 line in 72 plate appearances.
Dodgers Designate Shane Greene For Assignment
The Dodgers have designated right-hander Shane Greene for assignment in order to open a spot on the roster for AJ Pollock, who is returning from the 10-day injured list, per a club announcement.
Greene, 32, sat out until May this season before returning to the Braves on a one-year deal. The Atlanta reunion didn’t go well, however, as the former setup man struggled to the tune of 16 runs allowed in 17 innings (8.47 ERA) before being cut loose. Greene quickly latched on with the Dodgers, and while things went a bit better in nine games, there were still some red flags. Greene allowed only three runs in 6 2/3 innings (4.05 ERA), but he also walked five batters and hit three more.
Command hasn’t typically been a major issue for Greene, who entered the season with a career 8.3 percent walk rate. However, it’s clearly been an Achilles heel this year as he’s walked 12.4 percent of his opponents and plunked 3.5 percent of them. Couple that with the fact that a heater which once averaged 95.9 mph (2017) is now clocking in at a career-low average of 93.1 mph, and it’s perhaps not entirely surprising to see Green struggling at previously unforeseen levels.
The Dodgers will now place Greene on outright waivers or release waivers within the next few days. Greene has the service time to reject an outright assignment anyhow, so this seems likely to end his time with the club. Given the limited number of days remaining on the regular-season calendar, it could also spell the end of Greene’s 2021 season. He’ll be a free agent again this offseason and perhaps look for an earlier deal so as to allow himself a full Spring Training this time around. He’ll likely have to settle for a minor league pact, but given Greene’s track record, there should be several clubs willing to take that flier on him.
Dodgers Place Cody Bellinger On Injured List, Expected To Activate A.J. Pollock On Thursday
The Dodgers announced they’ve placed outfielder Cody Bellinger on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 18, due to a left rib fracture. Luke Raley has been recalled from Triple-A Oklahoma City to take his place on the active roster. In better news, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic) the club anticipates reinstating fellow outfielder AJ Pollock from the IL before Thursday’s game against the Rockies.
While Bellinger’s rib fracture diagnosis sounds alarming, it doesn’t seem the club expects him to miss too much time. He hasn’t played since last Friday, but he was in tonight’s initial starting lineup before being scratched because of continued soreness. That setback will keep him out of action for at least the next week, but it’s seemingly possible he’ll be back on the field before the regular season is through.
The injury is the latest development in a season that has been an unequivocal disaster for Bellinger. He’d already been on the IL twice this season with leg issues, and he hasn’t produced anywhere near his capabilities even when healthy enough to play. Over 337 plate appearances, Bellinger is hitting .159/.237/.291 with just nine home runs. He’s striking out at an alarming 26.1% rate and has managed just a .188 batting average on balls in play. Of the 242 hitters with 300+ plate appearances, only Jackie Bradley Jr. has a worse park-adjusted hitting line than Bellinger by measure of wRC+.
It’s been a shockingly poor season for the 26-year-old, who’s just two years removed from winning National League MVP honors. Bellinger couldn’t replicate that year’s massive .305/.406/.629 showing in last season’s truncated schedule, but his .239/.333/.455 mark in 2020 was still far better than this year’s performance.
Bellinger’s massive struggles set the stage for some interesting decisions for the Dodgers’ front office. Assuming he’s able to make it back from his injury in time for the postseason, they’ll need to decide whether to carry him on the playoff roster. That still seems likely, given his left-handed pop and continued plus defense in center field. But it could be difficult to find a ton of playing time for Bellinger on a loaded Los Angeles roster this postseason.
The front office’s confidence in a Bellinger bounceback will also be gauged this winter. Last offseason, he and the Dodgers agreed to a $16.1MM deal to avoid arbitration. He’s slated to go through that process twice more and will likely be due a small raise next winter. (Arbitration salaries are designed to escalate year-over-year, so Bellinger’s salary wouldn’t decline even in spite of his poor performance). At his best, Bellinger’s obviously worth far more than even that significant tally. But he’s a .192/.278/.359 hitter over 580 trips to the plate in the past two seasons, and the Dodgers certainly wouldn’t want to commit that level of outlay if they believe that to be more reflective of his current talent level than his 2017-19 peak is.
A Bellinger non-tender or trade still seems unlikely, given the Dodgers’ immense spending levels and his not too distant MVP season. But the Dodgers should still have plenty of outfield options in coming years, even if Chris Taylor departs in free agency. Mookie Betts is obviously set to play everyday, and Pollock now looks likely to be back next season because of the injury from which he’s now returning.
Pollock’s free agent deal with the Dodgers contained a vesting option that could’ve allowed him to opt out at the end of this season. To do so, he’d have needed to tally 1000 plate appearances between 2020 and 2021. For vesting option purposes, last season’s tallies were multiplied by 2.7 to prorate them over the course of a full season. Pollock picked up 210 plate appearances last year, translating to 567 after prorating. That left him in need of 433 trips to the plate this season to pick up the right to test free agency.
A few weeks ago, Pollock looked well on his way to reaching that threshold. The 33-year-old suffered a hamstring strain on September 4, though, keeping him out for almost three full weeks. He’s been stuck on 386 plate appearances since suffering that injury, meaning he needs 47 more over the course of the season to trigger the potential opt out. By Thursday, the Dodgers will have just ten games remaining in the regular season. Pollock would need to play in all ten and average 4.7 plate appearances per game to reach the option threshold (assuming he and the team haven’t modified the clause in the wake of his recent injury). While not completely impossible, it seems unlikely he’d get that much playing time over the season’s final week and a half.
That’d guarantee Pollock returns next season on a $10MM salary, an eminently affordable price for the Dodgers given his quality production. While the former Diamondback’s tenure in L.A. started slow, he’s been very effective over the past couple seasons. Going back to the beginning of 2020, Pollock is hitting .289/.339/.529 with 32 homers and 34 doubles in essentially the equivalent of one full season’s worth of playing time. He’d come out of this year’s All-Star Break scorching hot, with a .329/.379/.497 showing in the second half before his injury.
Pollock’s forthcoming return will be a welcome addition to a Dodger team hoping to avoid the Wild Card game. They’ve continued to hover just behind the league-best Giants in the NL West, entering play tonight one game back. Los Angeles closes out their season with series against the Rockies, Diamondbacks, Padres and Brewers, while the Giants will take on San Diego, Colorado and Arizona before facing the Padres again to close out the season.
Dodgers Notes: Alexander, Bellinger, Kahnle
Scott Alexander won’t be returning this season, per Jorge Castillo of the LA Times (via Twitter). Alexander has been out since July 20 because of shoulder inflammation. The southpaw has been a reliable presence out of the Dodgers pen for the past four seasons, tossing 111 innings with a 3.49 ERA/4.24 FIP over that span.
Tommy Kahnle is also done for the year, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Kahnle has been recovering from Tommy John surgery, and there was some thought that he might be well enough to return this season, but that’s no longer the case. Of course, the Dodgers signed him to a two-year deal with this possibility fully in mind. The plan remains to get him healthy and ready for the start of 2022.
Cody Bellinger‘s season soldiers on, though it’s hardly gone as planned. Beyond the almost comically disastrous .159/.237/.291 triple slash line, Bellinger has struggled to stay healthy going all the way back to last year’s World Series. He’s now dealing with a non-displaced rib fracture, suffered in an outfield collision with converted infielder Gavin Lux, per The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya. He missed 53 days earlier this season with a fractured fibula and a little more than a week with a hamstring strain.
Bellinger appears likely to play through this injury and avoid another stint on the injured list, though given that he’s hitting just .073/.174/.122 in September, a bit of rest might be preferable for the Dodgers. Chris Taylor is certainly capable of handling centerfield in the short term, though Taylor himself has been banged up of late.
Besides, the fact that Lux was playing left field at all speaks to where the Dodgers are at right now in terms in their available outfielders. And for all his struggles at the plate, Bellinger is a viable defensive centerfielder, putting up 3.0 OAA, -2 DRS, and 1.2 UZR.