Padres, White Sox Interested In Nomar Mazara
Reports yesterday from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News indicated that Rangers outfielder Nomar Mazara was drawing interest from rival teams. Grant mentioned that Mazara was getting looks from teams who weren’t necessarily contenders this season but were looking to contend in 2020, and today Grant specified that the Padres and White Sox were two of the clubs scouting Mazara.
San Diego is something of an odd fit for Mazara on paper, as the Padres already have multiple corner outfield options on hand. Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe have both performed very well this season, the struggling Wil Myers isn’t likely to be going anywhere due to his contract, Travis Jankowski and Josh Naylor are the two primary options in the minor leagues, and Franchy Cordero could also rejoin the mix if he gets healthy.
Then again, Padres GM A.J. Preller was the Rangers’ director of international scouting when Mazara was first signed to a then-record $5MM bonus by the Rangers back in 2011. It wouldn’t at all be surprising if Preller feels a move to a new environment could help Mazara become a consistently productive big league player. It’s also possible the Padres could create some space in the outfield with some trades for pitching over the next week, as the club has been linked to a long list of starting arms over the last several months.
Chicago has Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert ticketed as their respective left and center fielders of the future, though while Leury Garcia has been a useful player, the White Sox could prefer to land a player with more upside like Mazara. Garcia has been one of several Sox players who have generated some trade interest as we approach the deadline, though Chicago isn’t considered to be too interested in moving players, as the club has their eye on contending for the AL Central in 2020. Between Jimenez’s debut, breakout performances from Lucas Giolito and Yoan Moncada, and other young talents who are on the verge of the big leagues, the Pale Hose seem to be on the verge of properly ending their rebuild. (Of course, they almost did so last winter in their push to sign Manny Machado, before losing him to the Padres.)
Rangers Acquire Shane Carle, Designate Kyle Dowdy
The Rangers have acquired right-hander Shane Carle from the Braves for cash considerations, per an announcement from John Blake, Texas’ executive vice president of communications. Carle has been optioned to Triple-A Nashville. To make room for Carle, the Rangers activated righty Kyle Dowdy from the 10-day IL and designated him for assignment.
Carle was DFA’ed by the Braves yesterday after posting a 9.64 ERA over just 9 1/3 innings of work this season. Carle emerged as a workhorse with a 63-inning performance out of Atlanta’s bullpen in 2018, though his performance began to fade even down the stretch last year, despite an overall 2.86 ERA. While strikeouts have never been a huge aspect of Carle’s game, he has missed more bats than usual at Triple-A Gwinnett this season, with an 8.4 K/9 rate over 33 1/3 frames. Those extra K’s haven’t helped Carle avoid a 5.13 ERA for Gwinnett, however.
A change of scenery could be just what Carle needs, as he does boast some very good velocity (94.7 mph average fastball over his 76 1/3 IP in the big leagues) and a 4.14 ERA over 562 2/3 innings in the minors. He’s a fairly low-cost acquisition for Texas, and an arm that could provide more immediate MLB upside than Dowdy.
Originally a member of the Indians’ farm system, Dowdy was selected by the Mets in the Rule 5 Draft and then claimed off waivers by the Rangers during Spring Training. Dowdy had a 7.25 ERA over his first 22 1/3 innings in the majors before going on the injured list in early June with an elbow impingement. If Dowdy clears DFA waivers, the Rangers will have to offer him back to Cleveland.
Jon Daniels On Availability Of Mike Minor, Lance Lynn
We’re clearly past wondering whether the Rangers will enter the deadline in position to pursue a 2019 postseason spot, with the club collapsing out of range of plausible contention. But that doesn’t mean it’s obvious how the organization will handle trade talks in the coming days.
Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels will have to decide whether to pursue trades involving several players who could be of future use in Texas. Outfielder Nomar Mazara has popped up on the rumor mill, as has reliever Jose Leclerc. It’s interesting to wonder about those talented younger players, neither of whom has performed to expectations this year, but they aren’t the club’s most intriguing deadline candidates. That status belongs instead to veteran starters Mike Minor and Lance Lynn.
Appearing on 105.3 The Fan’s Ben and Skin Show (transcript via the Dallas Morning News), Daniels discussed a variety of topics of hot-stove interest. But his comments on Minor and Lynn are most noteworthy given the still-uncertain status of this summer’s starting pitching market.
Daniels made clear that the Texas club values these pitchers “at a very high level.” He provided support for that position by observing: “You’ve got guys that are performing at a high level, that are filling a need that we need now and we’re going to need going forward. We need more pitching, not less ultimately.”
There’s plenty of truth in that statement, even if the Rangers have to listen to offers. (Daniels has already said they will.) This is a club that’s opening a new ballpark next year — “ultimately people come to see the team on the field,” Daniels noted while discussing the impact of the stadium — and has elected not to launch a full-throated rebuild. While the 2019 Opening Day payroll sat lower than at any point since 2011, it still checked in at levels that would cause some small-market clubs heart palpitations ($118MM).
The Texas club is obviously interested in putting a good product on the field year after year. And there’s no doubting the roster’s dire need for starting pitching. Parting with good starting pitching (with future contract control) would open a hole that’ll need to be filled somehow.
True, the Rangers can go out looking for the next versions of Minor and Lynn. They’ll probably do so regardless. But it’s awfully tough to assume that they’ll have near as much success with their next buy-low, three-year contract as they have with their prior two. Minor ($28MM) and Lynn ($30MM) inked near-identical deals in successive winters, with the Rangers luring both with longer deals than many anticipated while promising limited average annual salaries. They’ve each been among the game’s most productive starters this year.
It’s certainly plenty appealing to hang onto these hurlers and continue to hope they provide good value over the remaining years on their contracts. (With one season remaining for Minor and two for Lynn, speculation has mostly focused on the former, though that doesn’t necessarily reflect the preferences of interested teams.) On the other hand, both are over thirty years of age with somewhat worrying injury histories. And market circumstances could align to create rather significant interest, particularly if other quality starters end up carrying audacious price tags.
Given the competing considerations, Daniels says, the Rangers won’t be moving off of their own lofty valuations on these hurlers. If the club ends up dealing one or both, he suggests, we’ll know why as soon as the swap is reported: “If we ultimately get to a place where we’re going to consider moving any of our big-league pitchers, it’s going to be because it clearly makes sense to do so. I think the return will speak for itself.”
Yankees Have Interest In Mike Minor
WEDNESDAY: New York’s “not very involved” in the Minor derby, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.
MONDAY: As they continue to weigh a variety of possible pitching additions, the Yankees are taking a look at Rangers lefty Mike Minor, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). But that interest comes with a few complications.
The Yanks are one of ten teams to which Minor can block a swap pursuant to his contract, per Rosenthal. Minor’s willingness to waive his rights isn’t known, but he certainly doesn’t sound particularly anxious to leave town.
Minor’s continued strong work makes his contract rights quite appealing. He’s earning just $9.5MM this year and next, making the 31-year-old a cost-efficient target. Pinching pennies isn’t strictly necessary for the Yankees, but the organization is as aware of value concepts as any and has an obvious desire to avoid unnecessary luxury tax complications (now and in the future).
It’s not surprising, then, that the Bronx Bombers have sent notable front-office member Tim Naehring out to see Minor’s past two outings. That could be interpreted as a tell, though Rosenthal rightly points out that Naehring and the team’s other trusted evaluators have also put in plenty of time watching other arms as well.
It is still tough to guess just what direction the Yankees will take. If Luis Severino is able to make it back, even if not in a full-blown starter’s capacity, the club will have enviable depth with James Paxton and Domingo German featuring as capable postseason starters and a variety of other multi-inning hurlers on hand. It could certainly stand to add a marquee arm to front the staff, but it’s fair to wonder if that’s really what Minor is. There’s unquestionably a rotation need in 2020 as well, but perhaps that shouldn’t be the priority right now. The price for Minor will be steep — in addition to other demand, the Rangers will value his rights for next season — and there is an argument to be made that the Yanks ought instead to utilize their resources on other targets, either posting less in prospect value for a rental hurler or somehow concocting a bigger move for a truly top-shelf starter.
Interest In Nomar Mazara Reportedly “Picking Up”
There was considerable hype surrounding outfielder Nomar Mazara when the Rangers promoted him to the majors in 2016. Mazara was one of baseball’s elite prospects at the time, but three-plus years later, he hasn’t lived up to the billing. While Mazara is now seemingly falling out of favor with the Texas organization, he remains intriguing to other franchises. With the July 31 trade deadline just a week away, interest in Mazara “is picking up,” specifically from teams that could be contenders in 2020, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes.
Although Mazara’s well into his major league career, he’s still just 24 years old. He’s also making a fair $3.3MM salary now and under control through 2021 via arbitration. That’s the good. The bad: Mazara’s more a big name than a big producer at this point.
Mazara smacked 20 home runs in each of the previous three seasons and has totaled 12 this year, but his overall numbers are lackluster. Mazara entered the year a .258/.320/.425 hitter with a subpar 92 wRC+ and just 1.5 fWAR across 1,720 plate appearances. His output this season has been even worse. Through 381 trips to the plate, Mazara has slashed .255/.307/.438 (86 wRC+) and accounted for a replacement-level fWAR (0.0). Southpaws flummoxed the left-handed Mazara during the prior three seasons, which has again been the case in 2019. They’ve held him to a horrific .200/.231/.345 line with 30 strikeouts against four walks thus far.
Not only has Mazara come up short in the batter’s box, but he has left something to be desired as a defender. In almost 4,000 innings of work as an outfielder, Mazara has totaled minus-20 Defensive Runs Saved, though his minus-2.3 Ultimate Zone Rating hasn’t been nearly as woeful. He’s at minus-5 and minus-1.9 in those categories this season, adding a more respectable minus-1 in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric.
Statcast is also more bullish on Mazara as a hitter. For one, Mazara’s .340 expected weighted on-base average far outpaces his .314 real wOBA. He also ranks either a bit or well above average in hard-hit percentage, expected batting average and expected slugging percentage. But that may not be of much consolation to the Rangers, who have time and again seen Mazara fail to meet expectations over the years. And now that the slumping Rangers are falling out of playoff contention, they could deem Mazara expendable in the coming days.
Rangers Likely To Place Joey Gallo On IL
Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo‘s right wrist injury is “likely” to lead to a stint on the IL, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. The extent of the injury isn’t yet clear, but there’s concern within the team that Gallo fractured the hamate bone in his hand, per Grant. If so, he’ll need surgery.
Already amid a tailspin, a significant injury to their best player is the last thing the Rangers need. The club has surprisingly been in the playoff hunt for most of the season, but after losing nine of 10, it’s at .500 (51-51) and 6 1/2 games out of a playoff spot.
The fact that Texas has been in the hunt for most of the year is a tribute to Gallo, who has been one of the majors’ top players in 2019. Gallo missed time earlier in the season because of an oblique injury, but he has still slashed .253/.389/.598 (146 wRC+) with 22 home runs in 297 plate appearances. Factoring in his work in the field (4 Defensive Runs Saves, 5.5 Ultimate Zone Rating), Gallo has posted a career-high 3.3 fWAR.
If Gallo heads to the IL for the second time this year, the Rangers will recall Willie Calhoun from Triple-A Nashville to replace him, according to Grant. The Rangers demoted Calhoun a week ago, to his chagrin.
Injury Notes: G. Sanchez, Domingo, Gallo
A few late-breaking injury notes from Tuesday night’s action…
- The Yankees won an instant classic over the Twins, but New York received unwelcome news immediately after the game. Catcher Gary Sanchez, who left early, could be on his way to the IL with a groin injury, manager Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch of MLB.com and other reporters. Sanchez has been in a brutal slump of late, but his .229/.299/.508 line (105 wRC+) with 24 home runs in 328 plate appearances is still clearly above average for his position. Backup Austin Romine hasn’t been close to that effective, while third-string catcher Kyle Higashioka hasn’t hit at all in the majors dating back to 2017. The Yankees also have veteran Erik Kratz at the Triple-A level, but he’s not on their 40-man roster.
- Mariners outfielder Domingo Santana will undergo an MRI on his right elbow, Corey Brock of The Athletic tweets. The 26-year-old’s elbow has troubled him since the All-Star break, Brock notes. Santana has drawn trade interest with the July 31 deadline coming up, but the Mariners’ chances of dealing him could evaporate with an IL placement. Regardless, he has been one of the non-contending M’s top hitters in 2019, having slashed .273/.342/.472 (119 wRC+) with 19 HRs across 437 PA. Santana’s also cheap ($1.95MM salary) and eligible for arbitration for another two years. However, Santana’s atrocious work in the outfield (minus-15 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-14.4 Ultimate Zone Rating) would surely tamp down his trade value.
- Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo is battling right wrist soreness and is likely to undergo an MRI on Wednesday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. An X-ray didn’t reveal a break, though Gallo’s wrist “has been bothering him for a while,” Grant writes. That would help explain Gallo’s significant decline in production in July. Gallo owned an incredible 1.109 OPS at the end of June, but he’s down to a still-great .987 in that category.
Rangers Option Ronald Guzman
First baseman Ronald Guzman has been optioned to Triple-A Nashville, the Rangers announced Tuesday. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by right-hander Pedro Payano, who’ll start tonight’s game for Texas. Logan Forsythe is getting the nod at first base for Texas tonight.
It’s undoubtedly a dejecting outcome not only for Guzman himself but also for the organization, as the team had hoped that Guzman would blossom into an everyday player after getting an extended MLB audition as a 23-year-old in 2018. Last season, Guzman’s bat was below average, but he held his own with a .235/.306/.416 batting line and 16 round-trippers in 428 plate appearances.
This year, however, Guzman’s production has gone backward, as he’s batted just .193/.282/.396 in 227 plate appearances. That said, there’s also some reason to be optimistic about a rebound. Guzman isn’t striking out at a higher clip than he did in ’18 — though his 28 percent clip is still a bit high — and his walk rate has actually improved from 7.7 percent to 11.0 percent.
Statcast indicates that his hard-hit rate has improved a bit, and Guzman has already nearly matched his 2018 total of “barreled” balls in just over half as many plate appearances as he received last year. He’s lugging around an ugly .285 weighted on-base average, but based on the quality of the contact he’s made, Statcast feels he’s been decidedly unlucky (.324 xwOBA). That, to be clear, doesn’t indicate that Guzman should be a force at the plate, but perhaps his struggles aren’t likely to continue at this great a rate.
The Rangers and Guzman will hope that a reset in a lower-pressure setting will restore his confidence and give him a needed mental break. He’s currently mired in an awful 2-for-30 slide in the month of July and hasn’t had a multi-hit game since June 25. Guzman still has a long way to go before he comes close to living up to the potential that prompted Baseball Prospectus to rank him as the game’s No 94 prospect prior to the 2018 season, but he’s yet to celebrate his 25th birthday, so there’s still plenty of time for him to turn things around.
Taking a step back, the Guzman dilemma isn’t an entirely unfamiliar problem for the Rangers. They’ve seen several young hitters — e.g. Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, Willie Calhoun — all struggle to varying extents, either immediately upon debuting or sputtering out after some early promise. It’s a particularly glaring issue, as one can’t help but wonder where the Rangers would be in the standings if that group of players had played up to their abilities thus far. Instead, the quartet of Guzman, Odor, Mazara and Calhoun have performed at sub-replacement level in 2019. And the Rangers, who’ve now dropped eight games in a row, look more like potential sellers than the likely buyers they appeared to be coming out of the All-Star break.
Rangers’ Jose Leclerc, Chris Martin Drawing Interest
It wasn’t long ago that the Rangers looked as if they were likely to buy at the July 31 trade deadline, but the club’s now plummeting down the standings. Losers of seven straight, the Rangers sit 50-49 and six games back of a wild-card spot. The club could sell before the deadline as a result, with Mike Minor, Hunter Pence and Danny Santana representing a few of its players who have drawn reported interest of late. Add right-handed relievers Jose Leclerc and Chris Martin to the group, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.
Between Leclerc and Martin, the former clearly boasts more trade value. Leclerc’s a season removed from performing like one of the game’s very best relievers, and he’s controllable for the foreseeable future at team-friendly prices. After Leclerc’s dominant 2018, the Rangers locked him up to a four-year, $14.75MM guarantee with club options for $6MM (2023) and $6.25MM (’24).
Although the 25-year-old Leclerc hasn’t been the force he was last season, he has largely moved past a dismal opening to 2019. Leclerc owned an ERA upward of 7.00 through April, causing the Rangers to remove him as their closer, but that number is now a more palatable 4.20. The hard-throwing Leclerc’s 3.44 FIP is far better, while his 13.6 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 comprise an above-average K/BB ratio (3.09).
Martin – another high-velocity option – has been effective this season, but the 33-year-old is down to his last couple months of team control. He’s making $2.25MM to close out the two-year, $4MM contract he signed with the Rangers in 2018 after pitching in Japan over the previous two seasons.
Martin walked just over a batter per nine innings last year in his stateside return, but the figure has shrunk to a tiny .73 this season. He’s also striking out 9.97, helping Martin to the majors’ leading K/BB ratio (13.67) among qualified relievers. Martin has also posted an attractive ERA (3.16), though FIP (4.06) isn’t nearly as bullish. It’s also worth noting home runs have become an extreme problem for Martin, who has yielded 1.95 per nine after averaging a bit more than one over the same span in 2018. Oddly enough, Martin’s newfound HR troubles have come despite a massive groundball increase. He has induced them 49 percent of the time in 2019 after doing so at a 40.5 percent clip last season.
Rangers Place Shawn Kelley On IL, Select Rafael Montero, Designate Carlos Tocci
The Rangers announced an interesting trio of roster moves today. Veteran hurler Shawn Kelley has been moved to the 10-day injured list with what is described as biceps soreness.
The organization has selected the contract of righty Rafael Montero to fill the open active roster spot. To clear 40-man space, outfielder and former Rule 5 pick Carlos Tocci was designated for assignment.
Kelley, who has served as the Rangers’ closer, had increasingly seemed to be a trade candidate. The club adds that an “MRI showed no acute injury,” which seemingly suggests that Kelley isn’t facing a significant malady. But he’ll be sidelined through to the trade deadline, which will make it quite a bit more difficult for the Texas org to obtain a return sufficient to prompt a deal.
While he has had his ups and downs in recent years, Kelley has mostly been effective since the start of the 2018 campaign. He’s through 33 innings of 3.00 ERA ball this year, with 8.7 K/9 against 1.4 BB/9. With a $2.5MM salary this year and $2.5MM club option for 2020, Kelley’s contract is a fairly appealing one. The option also gives the Rangers an alternative to a trade.
The other moves are intriguing as well. Montero, 28, was once a prized hurler in the Mets organization but his fortunes were sinking even before he missed the ’18 season for Tommy John surgery. It remains to be seen whether he can resurrect his career, but the Rangers will be glad to have a look after watching Montero rack up a shiny 31:2 K/BB ratio in 18 1/3 minor-league innings.
As for Tocci, the 23-year-old was bumped from the 40-man after the organization put in a big effort to acquire him. The club carried him for all of the 2018 season to secure his rights through the Rule 5 draft, with Tocci struggling badly in limited playing time. Long considered a project with the bat, he’s slashing .246/.317/.312 in 360 Triple-A plate appearances this year.