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Orioles To Promote Colton Cowser

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According to Roch Kubatko of MASN, the Orioles are expected to select the contract of outfield prospect Colton Cowser ahead of tomorrow’s game against the Yankees. Baltimore has a full 40-man roster, meaning the club will need to clear space for the youngster before he can join the team. The impending move will put Cowser in line to make his major league debut.

Cowser, 23, was selected by the Orioles with the fifth overall pick in the 2021 draft. After a sensational professional debut late in the 2021 campaign that saw him slash .375/.490/.492 with more walks than strikeouts between rookie ball and Single-A, Cowser entered the 2022 campaign as a consensus top 100 prospect in the sport. He delivered on that promise and then some, advancing from High-A all the way to Triple-A by the end of 2022 while slashing a solid .278/.406/.469 across three levels of the minor leagues.

While Cowser’s 2022 vaulted him up prospect rankings to the point where he entered 2023 as a consensus top 40 prospect in all of baseball, the Orioles opted to take things slowly with the lefty slugger during his age-23 campaign after he slashed just .219/.339/.429 in 124 Triple-A plate appearances last year. In his return to the club’s Norfolk affiliate, Cowser has proven that he’s mastered the Triple-A level: he’s slashed a whopping .330/.459/.537 with a phenomenal 18.7% walk rate in 257 plate appearances at the level this year.

In making his MLB debut, Cowser joins Baltimore’s youth movement that began with the promotion of Adley Rutschman last summer. Since then, the club has seen top prospects Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, Joey Ortiz, and Jordan Westburg all debut in the big leagues. The surge of young talent has helped buoy the Orioles throughout a fantastic first half. The club is currently 49-35, second in a highly competitive AL East division and in the driver’s seat of the AL wild card race.

Going forward, Cowser figures to slot into the club’s outfield mix. With Cedric Mullins entrenched in center field and both Austin Hays (132 wRC+) and Anthony Santander (122 wRC+) having excellent seasons, it seems likely that Cowser’s arrival leaves Aaron Hicks ticketed for a smaller role. The 33-year-old veteran has had a resurgence since joining the Orioles after being designated for assignment by the Yankees earlier this season, slashing .262/.374/.464 in 99 plate appearances with Baltimore. Going forward, Hicks seems likely to fill the reserve outfielder role currently occupied by Ryan McKenna.

Orioles To Promote Jordan Westburg

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The Orioles are poised to promote top infield prospect Jordan Westburg prior to tomorrow’s game against the Reds, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Baltimore will need to make a 40-man roster move to accommodate Westburg in addition to clearing space for him on the active roster, though those moves have not yet been announced. Passan adds that Westburg will be in the starting lineup tomorrow for his major league debut.

Westburg was selected 30th overall by Baltimore in the first round of the 2020 draft. He immediately impressed with the bat in his first professional season, slashing .285/.389/.479 in 506 trips to the plate while climbing from Single-A all the way to Double-A over the course of the 2021 campaign. While those numbers were certainly impressive, his roughly league average 104 wRC+ in 30 Double-A games did leave questions as to whether he would be able to dominant in the upper levels of the minors the way he had in A-ball.

The youngster answered those questions in a big way with his performance in 2023. After showing improvement across 47 games at the Double-A level with a .247/.344/.473 slash line, Westburg went on to take another step forward with a strong showing in Triple-A during his age-23 season. In 91 games at the level last season, Westburg slashed an impressive .274/.361/.508 with the lowest strikeout rate of his career and 46 extra base hits, including 18 home runs.

After an excellent 2022 campaign, Westburg entered the 2023 campaign rated as roughly a top-75 prospect in the sport by each of MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus. He’s since delivered on that promise by posting the best numbers of his career across 67 games in a return to Triple-A. In 301 plate appearances this season, Westburg has slashed .295/.372/.567 with a wRC+ of 131, a strikeout rate of just 21.3%, and .404 wOBA.

Given those impressive numbers, it’s no wonder why the Orioles have made the decision to pull the trigger on Westburg’s promotion despite the club’s crowded infield picture. Gunnar Henderson, of course, is entrenched on the left side of the infield with appearances in 67 of the club’s 76 games this season. That leaves Westburg likely to mix in alongside the likes of Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urias, and Adam Frazier up the middle, though Frazier has also seen time in the outfield this season while Urias has occasionally stepped in at first base with Ryan Mountcastle on the injured list.

Of the aforementioned trio, only Urias has hit above league average this season with a wRC+ of 101. That being said, Mateo’s glove at shortstop ranks in the 89th percentile of qualified fielders per Statcast, meaning he’ll likely draw starts even as his bat has cooled off significantly after a hot start to the season. That leaves the likes of Frazier and Joey Ortiz most likely to lose out on playing time in favor of Westburg. Ortiz, in particular, stands out as a potential candidate to be optioned in favor of Westburg, as the 24-year-old youngster has gotten into just 15 games with the club this season, slashing .212/.206/.242 in 35 plate appearances.

Westburg’s promotion is the latest in a line of recent top prospect promotions that began with the debut of catcher Adley Rutschman last year. Since then, Henderson, Ortiz, and Grayson Rodriguez are among the youngster to make their debut for the Orioles, though Ortiz and Rodriguez have yet to establish themselves fully at the major league level. The youth movement in Baltimore has paid dividends, as the club has followed up a surprisingly competitive 2022 campaign with a 47-29 record that leaves them both in second place in an extremely competitive AL East division and in the driver’s seat of the AL Wild Card race.

Guardians To Promote Gavin Williams

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The Guardians are going to promote pitching prospect Gavin Williams, reports Guardians Prospective on Twitter. The right-hander will start on Wednesday, making his major league debut. He’s not yet on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding move or moves will be required.

Williams, 23, was the club’s first-round pick in 2021, getting selected 23rd overall. He didn’t make his professional debut until the following season, but it was well worth the wait. He split last year between High-A and Double-A, tossing 115 innings over 25 starts with a 1.96 ERA. He struck out 33.1% of batters faced while walking 8.9%.

That strong showing, combined with his pre-draft work at East Carolina University, helped him shoot up prospect rankings this offseason. Coming into 2023, he was ranked the #20 prospect in the league at Baseball America, #81 at FanGraphs, #33 at ESPN and got the #42 slot from Keith Law of The Athletic. He also was ranked 42nd by MLB Pipeline, though he’s since moved up to #16.

Here in 2023, he’s done little slowing down. He began the year back at Double-A but posted an ERA of 0.63 in three starts and was quickly bumped up. Through nine outings at Triple-A, he has a 2.93 ERA in 46 innings, striking out 33.3% of batters faced. His 11.5% walk rate at that level is a bit high, but there’s little denying the overall success. Reports on Williams tend to highlight his triple-digit fastball while also giving praise to his curveball and slider. He also has a changeup, though that is generally seen as his fourth-best offering.

The Guardians have turned to their young pitching prospects several times this year due to various factors. Zach Plesac struggled with a 7.59 ERA and got himself outrighted off the roster. Both of Peyton Battenfield and Cal Quantrill saw their ERA climb above 5.00 before they each landed on the injured list, where they currently remain. Aaron Civale is healthy now but has only been able to make five starts thus far due to a strained oblique. Triston McKenzie was shut down in March with a teres major strain and came back last week, though he’s now on the IL again with an elbow sprain that involves his UCL and seems serious.

Amid all of that, the club has already called upon top 100 pitching prospects Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen to join the rotation alongside Civale and Shane Bieber. Bibee has a 4.05 ERA and Allen is at 3.95 through 10 starts for each. The club already had a reputation for seemingly finding excellent pitchers in the couch cushions but they continue to impress and will now be promoting their third rotation prospect of the year. That’s despite another pitching prospect, Daniel Espino, undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery earlier this year.

The club has a record of just 33-38 but that’s good enough for second place in the weak American League Central. With no teams in the division able to even stay above .500, the Guards are just two games back of the 36-37 Twins. Despite a tepid offense, perhaps their never-ending supply of young pitching can keep them in the mix the rest of the way.

As for the ever-present service time question with top prospects, Williams can only earn 103 days this year even if he stays up for the rest of the year. That won’t allow him to get to a full year in 2023 and will leave him shy of achieving Super Two status by the end of 2025. Since he was a top 100 guy coming into the season, he could theoretically earn a full year of service time by finishing in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting. However, that will be very hard to do since he’s already missed almost half the season.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Pirates To Promote Henry Davis

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The Pirates are preparing to call up Henry Davis to the majors on Monday, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports (Twitter link).  Davis is expected to make his MLB debut in the game against the Cubs.

Selected with the first overall pick of the 2021 draft, Davis will be making a pretty quick trip to the majors, though it’s hard to argue that the catcher isn’t ready.  Davis has been crushing the ball at every level, including a .286/.432/.514 slash line over 45 plate appearances at Triple-A.  Though Davis was only recently promoted to Triple-A and has only 10 games under his belt at the top minor league level, the Pirates have seen enough to believe he is ready to contribute in the Show.

The timing of the promotion can’t be overlooked, as if Davis remains on the big league roster for the remainder of the season, he’ll only amass 105 days of Major League service time.  This all but ensures that he won’t achieve Super Two status, and thus won’t gain an extra year of arbitration eligibility.  Given how the Pirates surely feel Davis can be a cornerstone player for years to come, it perhaps isn’t surprising that the small-market team already has an eye on the catcher’s future price tag, assuming he lives up to expectations as a future star.  Finances also factored into the Bucs’ selection of Davis in the first place, as he signed for a $6.5MM bonus that was well below the slot value attached to the first overall pick.

Davis was a consensus top-100 prospect entering the season, with Keith Law (who had Davis 30th), Baseball Prospectus (46th), MLB Pipeline (57th) and Baseball America (73rd) all ranked him amongst the game’s top minor leaguers.  Law cited Davis’ wrist injuries in 2022 and his need to improve against offspeed pitching, but Law was perhaps highest of the pundits on the Louisville product’s potential because Law believes Davis will be able to stick at catcher — far from a universal opinion among scouts.

While Davis has played some right field during his young pro career, that could be less a reflection of his defense than the fact that Pittsburgh also has another top catching prospect in Endy Rodriguez.  Because Rodriguez can also play the outfield as well as second place, there’s a chance that neither of the Pirates’ “catchers of the future” ultimately end up as catchers, though having both players gives the Bucs some flexibility in determining the best path for both players.  Davis’ plus hitting ability makes him valuable wherever he lines up on the field, though it would naturally have the most impact coming from the catcher position.

Austin Hedges and Jason Delay have mostly split catching duties in Pittsburgh this season, with Hedges contributing his usual excellent defense but next to nothing at the plate, while Delay has hit .304/.371/.418 over 91 PA.  Since the Pirates obviously aren’t bringing Davis up to sit him on the bench, it creates an interesting short-term issue for the Pirates in determining which catcher stays.  Delay still has three minor league options so the likeliest scenario is that he is sent to Triple-A while Hedges stays as a glove-first complement and perhaps a defensive mentor to Davis.  Should Davis establish himself as a big leaguer, Delay might become an interesting trade chip for the Pirates to market at the trade deadline.

It’s a whole lot to ask that Davis can provide an Adley Rutschman-esque impact on the Pirates lineup, replicating how Rutschman’s promotion almost instantly sparked the Orioles from rebuilding team to contender in 2022.  However, the Pirates have a 34-35 record but are only 1.5 games out of first place in the NL Central and 3.5 games out of a wild card berth.  Given the compact nature of the National League standings, the Pirates still have a chance of mounting a playoff push, but at the very least the team has already shown that their rebuilding status is over.

Rangers Promote Owen White

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3:15pm: The Rangers have now announced the moves, recalling both White and Bradford. In corresponding moves, left-hander Cole Ragans and right-hander Yerry Rodríguez were optioned to Round Rock.

12:55pm: The Rangers are promoting pitching prospect prospect Owen White, according to Ken Rosenthal and Sam Blum of The Athletic. White is already on the 40-man roster but will need a corresponding move to get onto the active roster.

White, 23, is generally considered to be one of the top 100 prospects in the league. Baseball America currently has him at #83, MLB Pipeline at #47 and FanGraphs at #30, while preseason rankings had him at #87 at ESPN and he was in the #70 spot on the listing from Keith Law of The Athletic.

Selected in the second round of the 2018 draft, his professional debut was delayed by Tommy John surgery in early 2019 and then the pandemic canceling the minor leagues in 2020. In 2021, he suffered a broken hand but was able to throw 35 1/3 innings between the Complex League and Single-A ball, posting a 3.06 ERA before adding another 28 1/3 frames in the Arizona Fall League. Last year was split between High-A and Double-A, with White able to post a combined 3.59 ERA over 80 1/3 innings between those two levels. He struck out 31.7% of opponents while walking just 7%.

He has a four-pitch mix that features a mid-90s fastball that can get up to 98 mph, along with a slider, curveball and changeup. Beyond the stuff, White is often praised for his ability to control and command that arsenal. He was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.

The Rangers are now skipping White over Triple-A, though it doesn’t seem it’s a situation where he has forced their hand with a dominant performance. Here in 2023, he’s been back at Double-A, having tossed 53 1/3 innings over 11 starts. He has a 3.54 ERA, though with diminished peripherals thus far including a 21.1% strikeout rate, 10.3% walk rate and 46.1% ground ball rate.

The promotion seems to have been spurred by some challenges the club is facing in patching a rotation together in the short term. Jacob deGrom is out for the rest of the season due to elbow surgery, leaving them with Jon Gray, Martín Pérez, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning. Gray was supposed to start today’s game but was scratched with a blister issue. With pitchers like Jake Odorizzi and Glenn Otto out with their own injuries, the Rangers will recall Cody Bradford to start tonight’s contest. Bradford has already made a couple of spot starts this year but just tossed 99 pitches over eight innings in a Triple-A game on Friday. He’ll be taking the ball on just three days rest tonight and will likely have some restrictions because of it.

With the club having used five relievers in last night’s 12-inning game against the Angels, it’s not the best time to be sending out a starter with a short leash. White last pitched on Wednesday and could perhaps take on a bulk role behind Bradford, if necessary.

The club’s plans going forward will likely depend on how today goes and how Gray’s blister reacts in the coming days. If he heals up quickly, perhaps Bradford or White or both will end up back in the minors in short order, though that will remain to be seen. Either way, it seems there’s a chance that Rangers’ fans and baseball fans in general will have a chance to see one of the best pitching prospects in the league take on major league hitters tonight.

Even if White were to somehow end up staying in the big leagues for the rest of the year, he would come up short of a full year of service time. The latest collective bargaining agreement gives him the ability to earn a full year anyway since he was on at least two of the top 100 lists at BA, ESPN and MLB Pipeline, but he would have to finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting. With the season already nearing the midway point, he would have a tough hill to climb, having to chase guys like Hunter Brown or Josh Jung who already have a headstart on tallying stats for the year.

Image courtesy USA Today Sports.

Reds Promote Elly De La Cruz

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The Reds have called up one of the top prospects in baseball, announcing Tuesday that they’ve recalled infielder Elly De La Cruz from Triple-A Louisville. In a corresponding move, third baseman Nick Senzel is headed to the injured list with a right knee issue.

The promotion of the 21-year-old De La Cruz is the latest step in a Cincinnati youth movement that has seen the likes of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Alexis Diaz, Graham Ashcraft, Matt McLain and Andrew Abbott make their MLB debuts over the past 14 months. De La Cruz has arguably the highest ceiling of the entire group, and his first call to the Major will continue the efforts to usher in a new era of baseball at Great American Ball Park.

Cruz offers one of the most tantalizing blends of power and speed in the sport, evidenced by this year’s 12 home runs and 11 steals in 186 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s batting .297/.398/.633 with a 14% walk rate against a 26.9% strikeout rate in Louisville and has gained increasing notoriety for his Statcast-breaking exit velocities, sprint speed and arm strength at shortstop. Statcast has pegged his sprint speed as high as 31 ft/sec at times (which would rank first in the Majors), and he drew headlines for blistering three balls with exit velocities north of 116 mph in a single game earlier this season.

The 6’5″, 200-pound De La Cruz has been primarily a shortstop in his minor league career, but Cincinnati GM Nick Krall tells Jim Bowden of The Athletic that he’ll likely play both shortstop and third base in the big leagues (Twitter link). Despite his sizable frame, De La Cruz draws strong reviews for his defensive upside at shortstop. Cincinnati currently has McLain thriving at that position, however, so the switch-hitting De La Cruz could see more frequent action at third base, where Baseball America touts him as a potential plus-plus (i.e. 70-grade) defender.

Currently, De La Cruz ranks as the game’s No. 3 prospect at Baseball America, No. 4 at MLB.com and No. 5 at FanGraphs. De La Cruz occupied the top spot on Kiley McDaniel’s midseason update to his top-50 prospects over at ESPN, joining an elite tier of 60-FV prospects alongside the likes of Eury Perez, Marcelo Mayer, Jackson Holliday, Jackson Chourio and James Wood. “De La Cruz has continued to improve his polish at the plate while also continuing to show eye-popping 70- and 80-grade tools all over the field,” McDaniel wrote as part of that ranking.

The predominant concern with the switch-hitting De La Cruz is his penchant for swinging and missing. This year’s 26.9% strikeout rate is actually his lowest full-season mark to date; he’s fanned in over 30% of his plate appearances in each of his stops at Class-A, High-A and Double-A dating back to 2021. R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports points out that De La Cruz’s contact rate against while facing left-handed pitchers this season has been just 58%, underscoring the potential for some struggles in adjusting to big league opponents.

From a service time perspective, De La Cruz is being promoted late enough in the year that he won’t have any chance at organically accruing a full year of Major League service time. That technically puts him on track for free agency following the 2029 season, although for a prospect of this caliber, it’s certainly worth noting that with a top-two finish in National League Rookie of the Year voting, De La Cruz would still be awarded a full year of MLB service time thanks to provisions stipulated in the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement. Should De La Cruz be in the Majors for good but not accrue that full year based on ROY voting, he’d accumulate 118 days of Major League service time in 2023, placing him on the cusp of Super Two status following the 2025 season.

De La Cruz’s early performance will have particular ramifications for Senzel once he’s deemed eligible to return. While a rough initial showing from De La Cruz could make it a rather straightforward call, in the event that the talented 21-year-old holds his own or seizes a spot in the same manner McLain has, Senzel’s role will become murky. The Reds moved him from center field back to third base this year and have thus far received a .258/.332/.380 batting line in 184 plate appearances. It’s not standout production but is at least solid, particularly with Senzel drawing respectable defensive grades in his return to the hot corner.

Cincinnati could opt to deploy Senzel in super-utility fashion, getting him looks at all three outfield spots in addition to third base, second base and perhaps designated hitter. But if De La Cruz hits the ground running — and arguably, even if he doesn’t — the time to get an extended look at him and McLain on the left side of the infield, opposite second baseman Jonathan India (whom the Reds have no inclination to trade), is nigh. The Reds are hopeful that said trio, along with versatile Spencer Steer and minor league slugger Christian Encarnacion-Strand, can comprise their infield of the future.

That group would leave very little in the way of regular playing time for Senzel, the former No. 2 overall draft pick and top prospect whose career has been repeatedly slowed by injuries. Senzel, who’ll turn 28 later this month, has two years of club control beyond the current season, which (speculatively speaking) could make him an intriguing trade candidate to other teams seeking MLB-ready position players. The Reds’ outfield doesn’t have this same looming influx of young talent, so it’s certainly possible that Senzel could just return to the grass on a full-time basis if De La Cruz earns a long-term look in the infield, but Senzel’s role with the club is murkier now than at any point in his still-young career.

Any such decisions are unlikely to be made in the immediate future, though, and the focus for Reds fans is surely on getting their first look at the ballyhooed De La Cruz. The great hope among a Reds fanbase that has felt jilted in the wake of yet another teardown/rebuild and repeated, poorly received public comments from team CEO Phil Castellini, is that between this wave of young infielders and starting pitchers, a return to relevance in the NL Central could happen by next year at the latest — if not as soon as this summer.

Reds Designate Frank German For Assignment

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The Reds announced Monday they’ve designated right-hander Frank German for assignment and optioned righty Kevin Herget to Triple-A Louisville. That pair of moves will open the necessary roster space to select the contract of top pitching prospect Andrew Abbott, whose previously reported promotion to the big leagues has now been made official.

German has bounced around over the past few months. Originally a Yankee farmhand, he landed with the Red Sox in the trade that saw Boston assume the final year of Adam Ottavino’s contract in 2021. The 6’2″ righty made a brief major league debut with the Sox last season, appearing in five games. He’s since moved to the White Sox in a minor trade and to the Reds via waivers.

The 25-year-old will now be traded or waived again within the next week. German didn’t make a big league appearance with Cincinnati. He had a tough showing in a limited look for Louisville. He allowed eight runs in 8 1/3 frames over 10 relief outings, striking out 13 against six walks. It was a similar story with Chicago’s Triple-A affiliate early in the year. German carries a 7.78 ERA in 19 2/3 minor league frames this season, offsetting a solid 28.4% strikeout rate by handing out free passes at a huge 14.7% clip.

German has run major strikeout and walk tallies throughout his minor league career. The former fourth round selection averaged 97.7 MPH on his four-seam during his brief big league look in Boston. He clearly has intriguing raw stuff but will have to dial in the strike-throwing to claim a lasting spot in an MLB bullpen. This is his first of three minor league option seasons.

Abbott takes the vacated roster spot. The University of Virginia product gets an MLB rotation look for the first time thanks to a dominant upper minors showing. Between Double-A Chattanooga and Louisville, the southpaw has worked 54 innings of 2.50 ERA ball while striking out a staggering 42.7% of batters faced.

Reds To Select Andrew Abbott

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The youth movement in Cincinnati continues as the Reds are on the cusp of selecting the contract of left-hander Andrew Abbott, who will make his big league debut tomorrow in a start against the Brewers. The club announced this morning that Abbott had been added to the taxi squad, and details surrounding Abbott’s coming promotion have continued to emerge throughout the morning.

In a session with the media this morning, manager David Bell confirmed the club will go with a six-man rotation for the time being, with Hunter Greene’s next start, originally scheduled for Tuesday, getting pushed back to next Sunday against the Cardinals due to hip stiffness, as relayed by C. Trent Rosencrans of The Athletic. Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer adds that Bell made clear that Abbott’s call-up is not a spot start, though the club won’t stick with a six-man rotation long term. After Abbott’s start tomorrow, Luke Weaver will start on Tuesday in Greene’s place, followed by Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft, and Ben Lively. Abbott will then get a second start on Saturday before Greene takes the ball on Sunday.

Abbott, who just celebrated his 24th birthday this past Thursday, is ranked 95th in MLB Pipeline’s top 100 prospect list. A second round pick by the Reds in the 2021 draft, Abbott has dominated the upper minors this season, with a 2.50 ERA in 10 starts (54 innings) split between the Double-A and Triple-A levels. In 15 2/3 innings at Double-A this season prior to his promotion to Triple-A, Abbott struck out a ridiculous 64.3% of batters faced. His phenomenal strikeout numbers have continued in Triple-A as well, as he’s punched out 34.8% of Triple-A batters in 38 1/3 innings of work.

Abbott is now tasked with joining the big league club and providing a boost to the Reds, who are in third place in the NL Central despite a weak 26-32 record. While the club’s overall record certainly leaves something to be desired, the club has seen improvement in recent weeks as they’ve made way for young prospects to make an impact on the club, highlighted by the performance of shortstop Matt McLain.

Braves Select AJ Smith-Shawver, Designate Lucas Luetge

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The Braves announced that they have selected the contract of pitching prospect AJ Smith-Shawver and designated left-hander Lucas Luetge for assignment in a corresponding move.

Atlanta has shown in recent years that it the most aggressive club in the league when it comes to promoting prospects to the majors and this continues that trend. Smith-Shawver is only 20 years old and was just drafted in 2021, getting selected in the seventh round. He made his professional debut with four Complex League appearances that year and then jumped onto Baseball America’s list of the top 30 prospect in the organization, getting the #18 spot going into 2022.

He would get a lengthier exposure in 2022, making 17 starts in Single-A, posting a 5.11 ERA in 68 2/3 innings. While that earned run figure wasn’t especially impressive, there was some bad luck in there. His .338 batting average on balls in play and 59.5% strand rate were both on the unlucky side of normal, leading to a 3.53 FIP that was much kinder. He jumped to #1 on BA’s list of top prospects in the system, as they highlighted his four-seam fastball, which averaged 95 mph and had good movement. They also praised his slider and mentioned a work-in-progress changeup.

This year, he began the year in High-A but the club has shown little hesitation about bumping him up the ladder. He made just three starts at that level before getting bumped to Double-A for two and then Triple-A for two more. In those seven starts, he has a combined 1.09 ERA over 33 innings, striking out 35.2% of batters while walking 9.4%. He’s getting good luck this time around, with his BABIP down to .257 on the year and his strand rate up to 91.2%. However, his 2.43 FIP still points to excellent work even when taking that into account.

That performance this year has pushed up his prospect stock. Though he wasn’t really considered a top 100 guy coming into the year, he’s now up to #98 at Baseball America and JJ Cooper of BA tweets that he will likely be moving up even higher in their next update. He didn’t open the year in the top 100 at FanGraphs either but it now up to #86 there. Now he’ll get to make his big league debut at a very young age and with a very quick blast through the minors.

As mentioned, this is becoming something of a playbook for the organization. Last year, they promoted prospects like Michael Harris II and Vaughn Grissom, both of whom were in their age-21 seasons. Going further back, players like Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies and Michael Soroka all got to the show in the respective age-20 campaigns. Austin Riley and Spencer Strider each got to debut in their age-22 seasons. Now Smith-Shawver will be the latest to be rocketed up to the top level.

Although he is a starter, Smith-Shawver will be used out of the bullpen initially, reports David O’Brien of The Athletic. Though the club has one of the better records in the league at 32-22, the bullpen is an area on the roster that looks a little shaky. The club’s relievers have a collective 4.13 ERA on the year, which places them 17th out of the 30 clubs in the league. Smith-Shawver will try to give them a boost back there as he gets acquainted with the majors.

It’s possible he could join the rotation down the road, as there’s some uncertainty there as well. With Max Fried and Kyle Wright both on the injured list and not expected to return anytime soon, that leaves Atlanta with Strider, Soroka, Charlie Morton, Bryce Elder, and Jared Shuster. Soroka has hardly pitched in the past three years due to various injuries, including twice tearing his Achilles, and it’s unknown how much of a workload he can be expected to take on this year. Shuster, meanwhile, is a rookie with a 5.33 ERA so far this year. There may come a time when Smith-Shawver appears to be a viable option, but he may not have too much leash himself after throwing just 68 2/3 innings last year.

As for Luetge, he spent the past couple of seasons as an effective lefty reliever for the Yankees. He came over to Atlanta in an offseason deal but has struggled mightily so far this year. He has a 10.24 ERA on the season, only making nine appearances around a trip to the injured list due to biceps inflammation. His .406 BABIP and 57.3% strand rate have pushed that up but his 6.08 FIP and 4.53 SIERA still aren’t ideal.

The club will now have one week to trade Luetge or pass him through waivers. Despite his rough stretch here in 2023, he’ll likely garner interest based on his previous work. He tossed 129 2/3 innings with the Yanks over 2021 and 2022 with a combined 2.71 ERA, striking out 25% of opponents while walking only 5.8%. He’s making a salary of $1.55MM this year and could be retained for another year via arbitration. If he clears waivers, he could reject an outright assignment by virtue of having a previous career outright. But doing so and electing free agency would mean forfeiting his remaining salary, since he is shy of the five-year service mark.

Dodgers To Select Bobby Miller

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The Dodgers are poised to promote one of their top prospects for his major league debut, as Russell Dorsey of Stadium and Bally Sports reports that the club is selecting the contract of right-hander Bobby Miller. The club will need to clear room for Miller on both the 40-man and active rosters ahead of Tuesday night’s game against the Braves, when Miller is poised to make his major league debut.

The 24-year-old Miller was the 29th overall pick in the 2020 draft, selected by the Dodgers in the first round out of the University of Louisville. In his first season of minor league action in 2021, Miller immediately impressed with a 2.40 ERA in 56 1/3 innings split between High-A and Double-A that included a dazzling 47 inning performance at the High-A level. During his time in High-A, Miller posted a microscopic 1.91 ERA with a 29.8% strikeout rate and a walk rate of just 5.9%.

That performance saw Miller become a consensus top 100 prospect headed into the 2022 season, where Miller saw mixed results in 112 1/3 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A. In 91 innings at the Double-A level last season, Miller posted a fantastic 30.5% strikeout rate and a solid 8.1% walk rate, though he struggled in terms of top-line results with a 4.45 ERA during that time. Upon his promotion to Triple-A, Miller largely improved as his strikeout rate ticked up to 32.9% and his walk rate fell to 7.1%, resulting in a 3.38 ERA in 21 1/3 innings. That being said, Miller allowed a whopping four home runs in that short time frame as a whopping 26.7% of his fly balls left the yard.

Miller’s uneven 2022 season did little to impact his prospect rankings, however, as he entered the 2023 as a consensus top 30 prospect in the sport. While his 2023 season has been off to a rocky start so far, with a 5.65 ERA and a strikeout rate of just 19.7% in 14 1/3 innings so far this season, the young right-hander is an incredibly talented prospect who has flashed a triple-digit fastball, making it easy to see why the Dodgers would be interested in getting their young hurler a look in the big leagues. It isn’t clear whether Miller’s first trip to the majors is expected to last beyond Tuesday night’s start, though with Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Dustin May, Michael Grove, and Ryan Pepiot all on the injured list, it stands to reason that this won’t be Miller’s only opportunity to impact the big league club this season.

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