Orioles Promote Heston Kjerstad
1:15pm: The O’s have now made it official, recalling Kjerstad and optioning Bañuelos to Triple-A Norfolk.
10:50am: The Orioles are planning to call up top prospect Heston Kjerstad today, reports Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun. The 25-year-old slugger is already on the 40-man roster, but Baltimore will need to make a move to get him onto the 26-man roster.
Kjerstad, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft, will bolster what’s already a dominant lineup. The O’s have six more homers than any team in MLB (35) and are batting .261/.316/.464 as a club. Kjerstad should fit right in. He’s taken 102 plate appearances in Norfolk this season and already bashed 10 home runs en route to a ludicrous .349/.431/.744 batting line (189 wRC+). Those 10 big flies tie him with Houston’s Joey Loperfido for tops among all minor league players.
The Orioles placed corner outfielder Austin Hays on the injured list due to a calf strain yesterday, and Kjerstad will provide them with another option in the outfield. First baseman/designated hitter Ryan Mountcastle was also absent from last night’s lineup due to a knee issue. The team has only listed Mountcastle as day-to-day thus far, but Kjerstad — a corner outfielder and first baseman — is a natural replacement if Mountcastle needs another day or two off or even requires a trip to the injured list himself.
The O’s aren’t exactly lacking for productive options at any spot Kjerstad could fit into the lineup, but he can certainly help keep their regulars fresh and provide some thump off the bench on days he’s not starting. Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander have all been productive in the outfield, while Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn have thrived as the team’s primary options at designated hitter and first base. Baltimore selected the contract of catcher David Bañuelos last night, bringing him up to the big leagues for the second time this season, but Bañuelos has a full slate of option years and can freely be sent to Norfolk if the O’s don’t want to continue carrying three catchers.
Kjerstad entered the 2024 season ranked as the game’s No. 26 prospect at FanGraphs. He landed 29th on MLB.com’s top-100, 41st at Baseball Prospectus, 42nd at Baseball America, 48th per ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and 62nd per The Athletic’s Keith Law. Kjerstad draws praise for his plus or better raw power, his penchant for making hard contact and his above-average arm in the outfield. He’s not especially fleet of foot and is a bat-over-glove prospect, but the lefty-swinging slugger is expected to hit more than enough to be a regular in Baltimore’s lineup for years to come. For the time being, Santander’s presence impedes Kjerstad’s path to an everyday role, assuming everyone’s healthy, but Santander is a free agent following the 2024 season.
From a service time vantage point, there are still enough days left on the regular season calendar for Kjerstad to accrue a full year. He picked up 18 days in 2023, meaning he needs 154 days of MLB service in 2024 to get there. It’s possible he’ll be optioned back to Norfolk once everyone’s back to full strength, but Kjerstad’s production there was also increasingly difficult to ignore regardless. If he’s in the big leagues for good, he’ll be controllable through the 2029 season and arbitration-eligible following the 2026 campaign.
Rangers Promote Jack Leiter
April 18: Texas officially selected Leiter’s contract on Thursday morning. The Rangers optioned Grant Anderson to Triple-A in a corresponding move. To create space on the 40-man roster, they transferred lefty reliever Brock Burke to the 60-day injured list. Burke broke his non-throwing hand last week and will now be out of action until at least the middle of June.
April 16: The Rangers announced this morning that top pitching prospect Jack Leiter will have his contract selected to the major league roster and make his big league debut Thursday against the Tigers. Texas has a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move to accommodate the right-hander, whom they drafted with the No. 2 overall pick in 2021.
It’s an early birthday present for Leiter, who’ll turn 24 just three days after making his long-awaited debut. The second-generation talent is the son of two-time World Series champion and two-time All-Star Al Leiter, the nephew of 11-year MLB veteran Mark Leiter, and the cousin of current Cubs setup man Mark Leiter Jr.
The fourth Leiter to reach the majors, Jack hasn’t had the most straightforward path to the show despite his considerable draft and prospect pedigree. He annihilated hitters in college ball at Vanderbilt, fanning 41% of his opponents in two seasons prior to being drafted, but struggled with command following an aggressive assignment to Double-A right out of the gate.
Leiter walked more than 13% of his opponents and posted an ERA north of 5.00 in each of his first two seasons at the Double-A level but has been an absolute monster in his first three Triple-A appearances this season. In 14 1/3 innings, he’s punched out 25 of his 57 opponents (43.9%), walked only three (5.3%) and surrendered just 11 hits. Four of those, unfortunately, have left the yard and saddled Leiter with a 3.77 ERA that’s far less impressive than his overpowering K-BB profile would otherwise suggest, but it’s hard not to be encouraged by the strikeout and walk trends. That’s especially true given that Leiter also pitched 12 2/3 innings for Texas this spring and posted a much-improved 9.6% walk rate in that short time as well.
Texas’ rotation has been hammered by injuries. Jacob deGrom, signed to a five-year contract in the 2022-23 offseason, opened the year on the 60-day injured list after undergoing Tommy John surgery last June. Max Scherzer, acquired at least year’s trade deadline, required offseason back surgery to repair a herniated disc. Twenty-six-year old southpaw Cody Bradford was a godsend through three starts to begin the season (1.40 ERA) … until he suffered a lower back strain of his own and was subsequently placed on the 15-day IL.
Leiter will step onto a starting staff that’s in flux. Veteran righty Michael Lorenzen, who inked a one-year deal late in spring training, made his Rangers debut yesterday with five shutout frames over his former Tigers teammates (albeit with five walks against four strikeouts). Veteran lefty Andrew Heaney would’ve been on tap for Thursday’s start, but he’s yet to last five innings in any of his three starts while pitching to a 6.75 ERA. It seems Leiter will overtake that spot, at least for the time being.
That all points to a rotation that’ll include Lorenzen, Leiter, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray and Wednesday’s starter Dane Dunning — at least for the time being. It’s not clear how long a leash Leiter will be given if he struggles out of the gate, though one would imagine the Rangers are planning to give him multiple starts following his initial call to the big leagues. Manager Bruce Bochy and/or general manager Chris Young will presumably expand on the team’s plans for their young righty in the days to come.
Leiter’s 2022-23 struggles were enough to drop him off prospect rankings, meaning he’s ineligible for MLB’s prospect promotion incentives. He won’t accrue a full year of service time, given the lack of sufficient time remaining on the calendar, nor can he net the Rangers a draft pick based on his Rookie of the Year voting. As it stands, he’ll be controllable through the 2030 season and is set up on pace to reach Super Two status, granting him four trips through the arbitration process rather than the standard three. The first of those arb-eligible offseasons would come in the winter of 2026-27, though future optional assignments could yet impact both his free agent timeline and arbitration status.
Dodgers To Promote Andy Pages
The Dodgers are calling up top outfield prospect Andy Pages, as first reported by Francys Romero (X link). The 23-year-old is already on L.A.’s 40-man roster, so they’ll only need to make a corresponding 26-man move, though it’s possible his promotion still leads to a 40-man move. Speculatively speaking, fellow outfielder Taylor Trammell could be at risk with Pages’ ascension to the big leagues, and Trammell is a recent waiver claim who’s out of minor league options.
Pages currently ranks as baseball’s No. 94 overall prospect at MLB.com and No. 95 overall at Baseball America. He garnered additional top-100 fanfare heading into the 2023 season but saw his stock take a bit of a hit due to injury troubles; Pages’ 2023 campaign ended when he underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder in early June.
That injury came on the heels of Pages’ first promotion to the Triple-A level. He appeared in just one game with the Dodgers’ Oklahoma City affiliate but had turned in a stout .284/.430/.495 batting line in 142 Double-A plate appearances prior to that move up the minor league ladder. The righty-swinging Pages has obliterated Triple-A pitching in the early stages of the 2024 season, tallying 73 plate appearances and recording a .371/.452/.694 slash with five homers, three doubles, a triple, two steals, an 11% walk rate and a 17.8% strikeout rate.
Pages draws praise for his raw power — which couples nicely with a swing and approach geared for lifting the ball — and plate discipline. He can play all three outfield positions, though scouting reports at BA and MLB.com suggest he profiles best in a corner, where he has the speed and instincts to be a capable defender.
The Dodgers’ outfield currently features Teoscar Hernandez in right, with a combination of James Outman, Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor and the aforementioned Trammell rounding things out in the other two spots. Jason Heyward is currently on the injured list with a lower back issue, though when healthy, he and Hernandez can be expected to roam the corners most days. Pages could potentially serve as a righty-hitting complement to Heyward and/or Outman, though it shouldn’t come as a surprise if the Dodgers plan to get him more regular work than the short side of a platoon.
Given the timing of the promotion, Pages can’t accrue a full year of big league service time in 2024 — at least not solely by remaining on the roster. Because he was regarded as a top-100 prospect on multiple outlets, he’d qualify for a full year of service time if he finishes in the top two in this year’s National League Rookie of the Year voting. Barring that — and pending future optional assignments bac to the minors, which are a firm possibility — Pages will be controllable all the way through 2030. If he’s in the big leagues to stay, he’ll be a surefire Super Two player who’s eligible for arbitration four times, rather than the standard three, beginning in the 2026-27 offseason.
Orioles To Promote Jackson Holliday
MLB’s top prospect is set to make his debut. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (X link) that the O’s plan to call up Jackson Holliday. The team has yet to announce the move.
Holliday, the #1 overall pick in 2022, has destroyed minor league pitching. Despite being a high school draftee, he reaches the majors after just a year and a half in the minor leagues. The lefty-hitting infielder traversed four levels in his first full professional season. Holliday raked at a .323/.442/.499 clip over 581 plate appearances last season. He spent the majority of that time between High-A and Double-A but made it to the top minor league level late in the year.
That meteoric rise made it seem that the Oklahoma native had a real chance to break camp. That didn’t happen, as Baltimore reassigned Holliday back to Triple-A Norfolk late in Spring Training. The 20-year-old has opened the year on a tear as part of a loaded Tides lineup. He’d collected 13 hits (including four doubles and a pair of home runs) with 11 walks and eight strikeouts over his first nine games.
The son of seven-time All-Star Matt Holliday, Jackson owns an excellent .321/.452/.497 batting line through 154 minor league games. In addition to his stellar offensive track record, he offers plenty of defensive value as an above-average or better middle infielder. Holliday has primarily played shortstop in the minors, but the O’s used him mostly at second base in Spring Training. Seven of his nine starts in Norfolk this year have come at the keystone, where he seems likely to break into the big leagues.
Holliday’s well-rounded profile has made him an essentially unanimous choice as the game’s best minor league talent. It’s the third straight season in which the O’s entered the year with a player whom most evaluators consider the sport’s top prospect. Holliday will now join Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and plenty more talented young players at Camden Yards. He should pair with Henderson in what has the chance to be a franchise-defining middle infield.
Baltimore has relied on Jordan Westburg — himself a former first-round pick and highly-regarded prospect — as their primary second baseman in the early going. The Mississippi State product has started slowly, hitting .195/.242/.355 through his first nine games. Westburg could slide over to third base if the O’s want to keep him in the everyday lineup. Ramón Urías and Tony Kemp, each of whom is on the roster as a multi-positional infielder, have struggled (albeit in exceedingly small samples). Westburg still has options remaining and could theoretically be sent back to Norfolk; the Orioles would need to designate Urías or Kemp for assignment to take either player off the big league club.
The O’s will likely reveal the corresponding move tomorrow. Holliday is not yet on the 40-man roster, but Baltimore has two vacancies. Unless they DFA a player who can’t be optioned, they’ll only need to clear active roster space. Whatever the transaction, Holliday will step into the lineup on an everyday basis.
The timing of the promotion surely isn’t coincidental. By calling Holliday up before the end of this week, the O’s are still in position to afford him a full year of service time. A player is credited with a full service year if they’re on an MLB roster or injured list for at least 172 days. Despite his two-week stint in the minors, Holliday will narrowly surpass that mark if he’s in the majors for good.
Promoting a top prospect just before the cutoff for a full service year would’ve been unlikely under the previous collective bargaining agreement. It was more common to see teams hold down their top talents until a bit past that date to secure an extra year of contractual control. The 2022-26 CBA introduced the Prospect Promotion Incentive to reduce the temptation for teams to keep their best young players in the minor leagues.
The PPI allows the Orioles to potentially win a draft choice if Holliday hits the ground running. A top position player prospect who accrues a full service year as a rookie (even if he’s not on the Opening Day roster) would earn his team an extra pick after the first round if he wins Rookie of the Year or finishes in the top three in MVP voting during his pre-arbitration seasons. Holliday still meets that criteria. The O’s already earned an extra pick in the 2024 draft when Henderson won Rookie of the Year last season. If Holliday also pulls off that feat (or hits the more difficult MVP finish within his first three years), Baltimore would get another pick.
Had the Orioles waited beyond this week to promote Holliday, they’d have forfeited the chance at the PPI selection. Keeping him in Triple-A for another few days would’ve prevented him from reaching a full year of service through the traditional method, but a top prospect can also “earn” a full service year with a top-two finish in Rookie of the Year balloting regardless of when he was promoted. If the O’s called Holliday up in May, for instance, he could have played his way to a full service year through his ROY finish without netting the organization the extra pick. That played out in 2022, when Rutschman finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting despite being called up in late May.
There’s an argument that the Orioles should simply have carried Holliday on the Opening Day roster. GM Mike Elias pointed to the youngster’s limited experience at second base and facing left-handed pitching as reasons for starting him in Norfolk. A combination of Holliday’s torrid start there and middling production from their MLB infielders led the front office to reverse course rather quickly.
If Holliday is in the majors for good, he’d first reach arbitration after the 2026 season. He’d be under team control through the ’29 campaign. Any future assignments to the minor leagues could push that trajectory back, but the O’s and their fans are surely hopeful that won’t be necessary now that Holliday is getting his first look at big league arms.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Dylan Carlson To Be Placed On Injured List; Cardinals To Select Victor Scott II
Cardinals center fielder Dylan Carlson has been diagnosed with a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder following a collision with right fielder Jordan Walker during yesterday’s Grapefruit League game, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak announced to reporters Tuesday (X link via Bob Nightengale of USA Today). He’ll open the season on the injured list. In his place, the Cardinals will select the contract of outfield prospect Victor Scott. He’ll open the season in center field.
Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Carlson’s absence will be measured in weeks, not months. As such, while the Cardinals will need to open a 40-man roster spot for Scott, placing Carlson on the 60-day IL seemingly won’t be a consideration when determining a corresponding move.
It’s an unfortunate blow for both Carlson and the Cardinals. The club came into camp with a planned outfield of Walker in right, Tommy Edman in center and Lars Nootbaar in left. Edman and Nootbaar are each going to start the season on the IL, Edman due to lingering soreness in his wrist after last year’s arthroscopic surgery, Nootbaar due to rib fractures suffered while attempting to make a catch.
That opened the door for Carlson, who was himself been frequently beset by injuries. After a breakout season in 2021, he missed time in 2022 due to a left hamstring strain and left ankle sprain, getting capped at 128 games. Last year, the ankle issues resurfaced and he only got into 76 games, eventually requiring surgery on that ankle.
He seemed to be in good form this spring, having hit .271/.340/.521. Just as he was about to open the season with a starting center field job, a brutally timed collision will send him to the injured list once again. He will hopefully be able to get healthy and rejoin the club in just a few weeks, but it’s also possible that Edman and/or Nootbaar will be back in the mix by that point.
Carlson’s misfortune will be an opportunity for Scott. He was a fifth-round draft pick of the Cards in 2022 and came into professional baseball with strong grades for his speed and defense but concerns about his bat.
Last year, he did a lot to quiet those concerns. He played 132 games between High-A and Double-A, hitting just nine home runs and walking at just a 7.4% rate, but he also limited his strikeouts to a 15.7% clip. His combined batting line of .303/.369/.425 translated to a wRC+ of 118. He also stole a tremendous 94 bases in 108 attempts on the year.
That vaulted Scott onto prospect lists coming into 2024. Both Baseball America and FanGraphs gave him the #83 slot on their respective top 100 lists coming into this year. Keith Law of The Athletic had him up at #55, though Scott didn’t crack the lists at either MLB Pipeline or ESPN.
He has been performing well this spring, hitting .316/.409/.368 and swiping four bags. The Cards probably didn’t plan on Scott jumping to the big leagues, since he was drafted less than two years ago and has no Triple-A experience thus far, but the string of injuries suffered by their other outfielders has forced their hand. Whether Scott sticks around or is merely a placeholder until the other guys get healthy will likely depend on his performance.
Despite some decent prospect hype, Scott won’t qualify for the prospect promotion incentive of the current collective bargaining agreement. It only applies to players that are on two of three top 100 lists at BA, ESPN and MLB Pipeline. Since Scott only made the BA lists of those three, he doesn’t make the cut and won’t be able to provide the Cards with an extra draft pick via his placement in awards voting.
Padres Select Jackson Merrill, Tyler Wade
The Padres announced their active roster for the upcoming Seoul Series against the Dodgers. As was previously reported, San Diego officially selected the contracts of prospects Jackson Merrill and Graham Pauley. The Friars also added minor league signee Tyler Wade to their 40-man roster, which is up to 39 players.
San Diego placed a trio of players on the injured list. Infielder Tucupita Marcano landed on the 10-day IL. He tore his ACL last August and is nowhere near ready. Pitchers Luis Patiño and Glenn Otto each went on the 15-day injured list. Otto has a teres major strain in his throwing shoulder; Patiño is battling elbow inflammation. San Diego also optioned reliever Woo-Suk Go to Triple-A El Paso. He won’t be on the roster for the team’s series in his home country after allowing six runs in 4 1/3 innings this spring.
Merrill, 20, will open the year as San Diego’s starting center fielder. The top prospect earned that assignment with a .351/.400/.595 showing in 13 Spring Training contests. Merrill hit .277/.326/.444 with 15 homers in 511 plate appearances between High-A and Double-A a season ago. That’s impressive production given his youth, and Merrill was regarded as one of the better pure hitters in the minors.
There’s nevertheless plenty of risk with the move. Merrill didn’t log a single inning in center field in his minor league career and has yet to play above Double-A. San Diego hasn’t been afraid of aggressively promoting its top minor league talents in recent years. Merrill should slot between Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jurickson Profar in the Opening Day lineup. San Diego is still looking into the possibility of a left field upgrade, as they were reportedly in contact with Tommy Pham over the weekend.
Wade, 29, gets back to the majors for what’ll be the eighth straight season. The lefty-hitting utilityman has primarily worked off the bench over his career with the Yankees, Angels and A’s. He appeared in 26 games with Oakland last season, hitting .255/.309/.314. Wade has a middling .217/.293/.300 batting line in just over 700 major league plate appearances.
He earned a season-opening roster spot with an impressive showing this spring. Wade hit .294/.351/.471 over 14 exhibition contests. The Padres aren’t counting on him to make much of an impact offensively, but he provides a speed and defense element off the bench. Wade can play virtually anywhere aside from catcher. He’ll offer a complement to Pauley at third base and Merrill in center field late in games. Wade is out of options, so now that he secured a 40-man spot, the Padres would need to expose him to waivers if they wanted to take him off the major league roster.
Rule 5 pick Stephen Kolek nabbed a spot in the Opening Day bullpen. He should soon get an opportunity to make his major league debut, perhaps against the team that drafted him. Kolek was an 11th-round pick of the Dodgers in 2018. L.A. dealt him to the Mariners for cash early in the 2021 campaign. Kolek turned in a 3.76 ERA over 69 1/3 innings of relief between the top two minor league levels last season. He tossed 5 2/3 scoreless frames this spring, albeit with four walks.
Jackson Chourio To Make Brewers’ Opening Day Roster
The Brewers will carry top outfield prospect Jackson Chourio on their Opening Day roster, reports Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. He is already on the 40-man roster after signing an eight-year extension over the offseason.
Chourio, who was born in March 2004, will very likely be the youngest player in the majors. It’s nevertheless not all that surprising that he’s breaking camp after signing an $82MM extension in December. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, that’s by far the largest guarantee for a player who had yet to make his MLB debut. Chourio only has six games of Triple-A experience but turned in above-average numbers in the Double-A Southern League a season ago.
The right-handed hitter put together a .280/.336/.467 slash with 22 home runs and 43 steals over 559 plate appearances. That came against much older competition in a league where testing of the pre-tacked baseball led to increased break on pitches and proved a challenge for hitters. Chourio fared better in the second half after the league reverted to the traditional baseball, including a scorching .388/.447/.718 showing in July.
That firmly established him among the sport’s top handful of minor league talents. Chourio ranked second or third on Top 100 lists from Baseball America, FanGraphs, ESPN, The Athletic and MLB Pipeline this offseason. He’s a potential franchise center fielder with a rare combination of power and athleticism.
To the extent there’s risk with Chourio, it’s that he has shown an aggressive plate approach. He walked at a modest 7.3% clip in Double-A, although that’s hardly an overwhelming concern given his youth. Chourio kept his strikeouts to a solid 18.4% rate and showcased his physical gifts.
In 13 games this spring, he’s hitting .283/.313/.348. He has three doubles, no homers, and a 10:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. They’re not overwhelming numbers, but it has been an impressive enough performance to reaffirm to the front office that he’s ready for an aggressive major league assignment. There’d be little reason to call him up if the club weren’t confident he can hold down the everyday center field job.
The Venezuela native will be at the center of a talented outfield at American Family Field. Christian Yelich should see the bulk of his time in left field with sporadic work at designated hitter. Former first-round pick Garrett Mitchell could slide to right field, where Milwaukee could also turn to Joey Wiemer or Sal Frelick. Their stockpile of outfield talent was enough that the Brewers have considered moving Frelick to third base, although the acquisition of Joey Ortiz in the Corbin Burnes trade gives them the flexibility to keep the Boston College product on the outfield grass if they like.
With a pair of club options tacked onto the end of his eight-year guarantee, Milwaukee already controls Chourio well beyond his six-year service window. The Brewers could still benefit from the Prospect Promotion Incentive if he performs well enough to merit award consideration.
Assuming Milwaukee keeps him in the majors for a full service year, Chourio would earn the Brewers an extra draft pick at the end of the first round if he wins Rookie of the Year or finishes in the top three in MVP balloting within his first three seasons. That’s certainly not an easy task. He faces an uphill battle in a Rookie of the Year race where Yoshinobu Yamamoto stands as the favorite and a top-three MVP finish is a tough ask of even the sport’s elite players.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Padres To Name Jackson Merrill Opening Day Center Fielder
The Padres are poised to name top prospect Jackson Merrill the club’s Opening Day center fielder, per a report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. The news comes just days before the club is set to face the Dodgers in a two-game regular season set in South Korea as part of MLB’s Seoul Series. Game 1 of that set is scheduled for 5:05am CT Wednesday morning, or 7:05pm local time that evening. The club will need to select Merrill’s contract before then, but won’t need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move as the roster currently stands at 36.
Merrill, 21 in April, was the club’s first-round pick in the 2021 draft and is a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport. The youngster is something of a surprising choice for the role, at least on paper. He’s not yet played a game above Double-A in his big league career, having slashed a solid but unspectacular .277/.326/.444 in 114 games split between the High-A and Double-A levels last year. Perhaps even more importantly, Merrill had never appeared in center field in a professional game until camp opened last month. His professional outfield experience to that point consisted of 45 innings of work in left field that season. Prior to that, his professional work had come almost exclusively at shortstop, though he also made brief cameos at both first and second base.
With all that being said, the club’s decision to go with Merrill in center field on Opening Day is certainly a defensible one. Prospect evaluators around the game are unanimous in their belief in Merrill’s talent, with Baseball America lauding him as a future middle-of-the-order threat who figures to have the power for 30 homers a year while Fangraphs describes him as having “one of the prettiest swings in the minors” with excellent contact abilities. Furthermore, while his lack of upper-level reps at the plate and professional time in center field will certainly raise some eyebrows, Merrill has clearly done everything he can to prove himself ready for a big league opportunity this spring. In 40 plate appearances across 13 games during camp, Merrill slashed an excellent .351/.400/.595 while playing solid defense in center.
Of course, the decision to roster Merrill as the club’s Opening Day center fielder is also the results of a host of other decisions outside of Merrill’s control. Chief among them is the club choosing to part ways with superstar Juan Soto alongside Trent Grisham in a trade with the Yankees that removed two of the club’s three Opening Day starters in the outfield last year from the roster back in December. Since then, the club has been tied to external outfield options including Michael A. Taylor, Kevin Kiermaier, and Tommy Pham. The likes of Taylor and Kiermaier have since signed elsewhere, however, and while there may be some momentum toward a deal with Pham, the 36-year-old veteran hasn’t appeared in center field on a regular basis since 2018, with just 15 starts up the middle in the years since then.
That lack of clear options for the center field job led the Padres to look toward their internal, non-roster pieces for their next center fielder. Fellow prospect Jakob Marsee as well as veterans such as Oscar Mercado and Tim Locastro all joined Merrill as potential solutions in center when camp began last month, though of that group only Mercado was able to keep up with Merrill’s blistering performance this spring and the club recently tipped their hand regarding their decision by including only Merrill, corner bats Jose Azocar and Jurickson Profar, and right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. as outfielders on their 31-man travel roster for the Seoul Series.
It’s possible Merrill won’t be the only rookie with minimal upper-minors experience on the club’s Opening Day lineup, as the club also included Graham Pauley on their travel roster for the coming series. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin indicated last week that Pauley was likely in position to fill in for veteran third baseman Manny Machado at the hot corner to open the season, as Machado will begin the season at DH while he recovers from elbow surgery, which he underwent back in October. Pauley, 23, was a 13th-round pick by the Padres in the 2022 draft and enjoyed a breakout season last year as he slashed a whopping .308/.393/.539 in 127 games split between the Single-A, High-A, and Double-A levels.
Rays Promote Junior Caminero
Sept. 22: Caminero’s promotion to the Majors has now been formally announced by the Rays. Outfielder Luke Raley was placed on the 10-day IL, opening an active roster spot, and righty Trevor Kelley was designated for assignment to make space on the 40-man roster. (You can read up on those corresponding moves here.)
Sept. 21: The Rays are calling up top infield prospect Junior Caminero, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. They’ll need to select him onto the 40-man roster, which is at capacity.
Caminero, who turned 20 years old in July, becomes the youngest player in the majors. He makes the jump directly from Double-A Montgomery, where he has spent the bulk of the 2023 campaign. Caminero began the year in High-A and was bumped to Montgomery at the end of May.
A native of the Dominican Republic, Caminero signed with Cleveland during the 2019-20 international signing period. He was playing in the Dominican Summer League when the Rays acquired him in a trade that has the potential to go down as one of the more lopsided in recent history. At the deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the 2021 Rule 5 draft, Cleveland sent Caminero to Tampa Bay for right-hander Tobias Myers.
Myers posted a 6.00 ERA in 14 Triple-A starts and was lost on waivers without getting to the majors. Caminero has broken through as one of the sport’s most talented young players. He reached full-season ball last season before this year’s true emergence as a top-tier prospect.
Caminero raked at a .356/.409/.685 clip in 36 High-A contests. He has barely slowed down since moving to Double-A, shredding older competition en route to a .309/.373/.548 line. The right-handed hitter has popped 31 home runs, 18 doubles and six triples over 510 cumulative trips to the dish. He has kept his strikeout rate to a lower than average 19.6%, including a meager 17.1% mark in Double-A.
Alongside the massive numbers, Caminero has impressed scouts with his physical tools. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel named him the sport’s #5 prospect last month; he also checks in fifth on the updated ranking at Baseball America. Those reports credit him with plus or better power potential, with McDaniel noting that he has a chance to be a 40-homer hitter at peak. ESPN suggests his plate approach can be a little aggressive — he’s walking at an average 8.2% clip in the minors — but there’s general agreement that Caminero could be an impact offensive player.
It’s nevertheless a bold move for the Rays to call upon him in the midst of a pennant race. He’ll obviously face a massive escalation in the quality of pitcher he’ll face down the stretch. Tampa Bay has already secured a playoff spot but has little margin for error if they’re to track down the Orioles for the AL East title and top seed in the American League. They’re a game and a half back of Baltimore after they beat the Angels and the O’s dropped their matchup with Cleveland.
Caminero has mostly split his time between third base and shortstop in the minors. Scouting reports suggest he’s likely to settle in at third base as he fills out physically. Isaac Paredes and Curtis Mead are splitting the hot corner, while defensive specialist Taylor Walls is at shortstop. Walls has a dismal .170/.267/.226 batting line in the second half, so the Rays could give some reps there to Caminero if they’re in search of an offensive boost. Luke Raley is also day-to-day with a left arm issue that recently required an MRI, freeing up some designated hitter at-bats (either for Caminero directly or for Paredes if the Rays wanted to plug Caminero in at third base).
The Rays will be able to carry Caminero on the playoff roster if they decide he’s ready for October action. While he wasn’t on the 40-man roster at the start of September, he was in the organization. Teams can (and often do) petition the league for a player who wasn’t on the 40-man at the beginning of the month to get onto a postseason roster as an injury substitute.
Caminero will be paid at the MLB minimum rate and collect a couple weeks of service time. He won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2029 season and won’t qualify for arbitration until the 2026-27 offseason at the earliest. Future assignments back to the minor leagues could push that timeline further. Caminero will remain a rookie headed into 2024, leaving open the possibility of netting the club an extra draft choice via the Prospect Promotion Incentive if they carry him for a full service year.
Orioles Select Heston Kjerstad
The Orioles announced a series of roster moves today, selecting the contract of outfielder Heston Kjerstad and recalling right-hander Bryan Baker from Triple-A Norfolk. To open active roster spots for those two, outfielder Ryan McKenna and left-hander Nick Vespi were optioned to Norfolk. To open a spot for Kjerstad on the 40-man, infielder/outfielder Terrin Vavra was recalled from Norfolk and placed on the 60-day injured list with a strained right shoulder.
Of all the moves, the most significant is the promotion of Kjerstad, as it’s yet another instance of the O’s promoting a highly-touted prospect to their major league club. The past six years have seen the club endure a significant rebuild, finishing last in the American League East four times, losing 108 games or more in three of those. That’s allowed them to build a pipeline of young talent that has started to feed into for the big league team. Youngsters like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez and others have helped the club jump to a record of 91-54, the best such mark in the American League this year.
Kjerstad, 24, was taken with the second overall pick in 2020. His professional debut was delayed by myocarditis, which prevented him from taking part in any official game action in 2021. He split last year between Single-A and High-A, hitting a combined .309/.394/.457 between those two levels. This year, he’s gone through Double-A and Triple-A with a combined slash of .303/.376/.528, which translates to a wRC+ of 132.
The outfielder is currently considered the #44 prospect in the league by Baseball America, #24 by MLB Pipeline, #49 by ESPN and #56 by Keith Law of The Athletic. FanGraphs doesn’t currently provide specific rankings beyond the 50 Future Value guys on the 20-80 scouting scale, but Kjerstad is one of many unnumbered 45+ guys that are lumped together around the back half of the top 100. He’s considered a bat-first prospect, with his power his standout tool, but it’s expected he can be a fine corner outfielder from a defensive standpoint.
It was reported last night that a promotion of Kjerstad was possible, in conjunction with Ryan Mountcastle battling a shoulder injury. Mountcastle hasn’t landed on the injured list as of yet, but it seems Kjerstad will push into the mix regardless. Mountcastle has been the regular option at first base, but perhaps his injury means Ryan O’Hearn takes over that spot and spends less time in the outfield corners. That would perhaps leave Kjerstad, Anthony Santander, Aaron Hicks and Austin Hays splitting the duties of left field, right field and designated hitter. Kjerstad also played some first base in the minors and could be a factor there.
The O’s are about to begin what may be their most important series of the regular season. The Rays are just two games back in the East division and the two clubs are set to face off in a four-game series that starts tonight in Baltimore. Both teams are sure to make the postseason but the division winner will secure a bye through the first round, making the distinction significant. Kjerstad isn’t in the starting lineup tonight but should make his debut at some point in the next few weeks and might even secure himself a spot on the postseason roster.
With so little time left in the season, Kjerstad won’t be able to exhaust his rookie status and will therefore still be on prospect lists in the upcoming offseason. That means he will still be eligible for the “prospect promotion incentives” that are present in the current collective bargaining agreement. That could allow the O’s to recoup a bonus draft pick in the future, depending on how Kjerstad fares in awards voting going forward.
As for Vavra, he was with the big league club earlier this year but has been on optional assignment since early June. While in the minors, he missed over two months from mid-June to late August, when he began a rehab assignment. The club informed reporters last week, including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, that Vavra’s rehab was being shut down for further testing. There’s not much detail on his injury or timeline but it seems his season is over, based on today’s transfer.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.