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Blue Jays Remain In Talks With Anthony Santander

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The Blue Jays have been tied to Anthony Santander as much as any team in recent weeks. While there’s still no agreement in place, Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet report that the Jays’ talks with the free agent slugger “picked up” this morning.

Toronto is reeling from another near-miss on a top free agent. Their talks with Roki Sasaki were never linked to the possibility of a Santander move. Sasaki’s hard-capped bonus meant that his decision would not have impacted the Jays’ big league payroll. Still, his decision to sign with the Dodgers leaves the Jays without a headlining free agent acquisition this winter. Their big splash on the open market was the three-year, $33MM deal for reliever Jeff Hoffman. Toronto’s most significant move has come via trade, as they took on the remaining five years of the Andrés Giménez contract from the Guardians.

Giménez is a defensive stalwart at second base, but he doesn’t provide a huge boost offensively. The Jays sorely need a power bat, in particular. They were in the bottom five of MLB in home runs last season. Their .389 team slugging percentage was 20th. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit 30 home runs; no one else on the team had more than 19 longballs. They’re only returning three hitters who slugged over .400: Guerrero, Ernie Clement and Daulton Varsho. Clement is generally a light-hitting utilityman, while Varsho is expected to open the season on the injured list after undergoing rotator cuff surgery in September.

The switch-hitting Santander has four 20-homer seasons under his belt. He has connected on at least 28 longballs in each of the last three years, including a personal-high 44 last season. Santander hit .235/.308/.506 across 665 plate appearances in his walk year for the Orioles. Only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani had more home runs a season ago.

Toronto has also been linked to Pete Alonso in recent days. Alonso is the only other unsigned free agent who rivals or tops Santander’s power. The latter is a cleaner positional fit. While Alonso would either need to serve as a designated hitter or force the Jays to move Guerrero to third base fairly frequently, Santander would slot into the corner outfield. The Jays don’t have a clear starter in left field. George Springer is expected to play right field, but he’s 35 years old and coming off a mediocre season (.220/.303/.371).

The Jays reportedly had an offer out to Santander a couple weeks ago. Clearly, that didn’t meet his asking price at the time. The Athletic reported last week that he may now be open to a shorter-term contract at higher annual values. Earlier in the offseason, Santander was reportedly seeking five years and a deal at or above $100MM.

Poll: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Future With The Blue Jays

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While the Blue Jays have been involved in pursuits of a number of major players this winter ranging from Juan Soto to Corbin Burnes to Roki Sasaki, the number one question hanging over the club’s head this offseason is the same one that’s been at the forefront of fans’ minds for years now: will the Blue Jays be able to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. before he reaches free agency? And, if not, what will the club do about it? The question is now more urgent than ever, with just over nine months left until Guerrero is set to file for free agency.

Even Guerrero’s relatively short remaining window of team control doesn’t fully illustrate how quickly the Blue Jays are reaching a crossroads, however. Guerrero has made clear that he set a deadline for negotiations of the first full day of Spring Training with the club’s front office. For the Blue Jays, the first full-squad workout is February 18, almost exactly a month away. If club brass and Guerrero’s camp are going to get a deal done ahead of that deadline, they’ll need to make a great deal of progress over the next month: reporting yesterday indicated that the sides last had extension discussions before Christmas, and it seems as though there was a significant gap in negotiations when the sides withdrew from the negotiating table for the holidays.

According to Guerrero, the Jays have offered him a deal in the vicinity of $340MM, and that this offer came prior to Soto signing with the Mets on a record-shattering $765MM deal last month. Meanwhile, reports have suggested that Guerrero’s asking price is believed to be above $400MM and potentially close to half a billion dollars. That’s no insignificant difference. That gap in negotiations hasn’t led the club to shop Guerrero on the open market to this point, and the club has signaled that they have every intention of keeping their star in the fold for the 2025 season.

That hasn’t stopped teams from inquiring, however. Recent reporting suggested that the Mets have checked in with the Blue Jays on the possibility of a Guerrero trade. That conversation doesn’t seem to have garnered significant traction to this point, and reports have indicated that the Jays would need to be bowled over by an offer that brings in a bigger haul than Soto did last winter to even consider moving Guerrero. That’s an incredibly steep asking price for any rental player, though of course it should be noted that last winter’s Soto deal and this offseason’s Kyle Tucker deal have suggested that some clubs are willing to pay exorbitant prices for star players even when they have just one season of control remaining.

It goes without saying that if the Jays see a path towards an extension with Guerrero before his deadline next month, they seem all but certain to pursue that rather than consider dealing him. Should negotiations fall through, however, it will be worth wondering whether or not the club will be able to build a contender around him in his final year before free agency. Landing Sasaki would surely help with that goal, and the Jays clearly have money to spend in free agency. They’ve been attached to top remaining free agents like Jack Flaherty, Anthony Santander, and Pete Alonso in recent weeks. All of those names would significantly improve the club, but it’s unlikely any of them individually would do enough to push the Jays from fifth place in the AL East into a playoff spot without significant rebound seasons from established players like Bo Bichette, Kevin Gausman, and Alejandro Kirk who struggled to produce last year.

If an extension can’t be reached and the Jays don’t have confidence in their ability to build a winning club for 2025, it’s easy to make the argument that the club should at least see what Guerrero could bring back on the trade market. If they find an offer that eclipses the package the Padres received for Soto last winter, it’s easy to imagine that greatly accelerating the club’s return to competitiveness in a post-Guerrero era. That would certainly be preferable to missing the playoffs again in 2025 with Guerrero on the roster and losing him for nothing more than a compensatory draft pick in free agency next winter, though trading Guerrero before the season begins would make a playoff run this year all the more difficult to imagine.

The club could also give itself more time to make a decision by supplementing the roster further throughout the winter in an effort to compete this year and then re-evaluating at the trade deadline. With that said, Guerrero would surely be far less attractive as a trade candidate with just two months of team control remaining. His impact for an acquiring club in 2025 would be reduced if they only had him for the stretch run, and perhaps more importantly it’s all but impossible to imagine him entertaining an extension with a new club that close to free agency. The star slugger is sure to garner a significantly larger return if traded before the season begins, but that would all but close the door on playoff baseball in Toronto this year.

How do MLBTR readers think the situation will play out? Will Guerrero and the Blue Jays come to an agreement on an extension before his deadline next month? And if not, will the Jays trade their star slugger before Opening Day or enter the season with him on the roster? Have your say in the poll below!

Blue Jays Acquire Myles Straw, International Bonus Pool Space From Guardians

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The Blue Jays announced that they have acquired outfielder Myles Straw, cash, and some 2025 international bonus pool space from the Guardians, while Cleveland receives a player to be named later or cash in return. Toronto will be receiving $2MM of international pool space, while the team will take on $11MM of the $14.75MM remaining on Straw’s contract through the 2026 season. The Guards will pay the Jays $1MM in 2025, $1MM in 2026, and then $1.75MM at the end of the 2026 season, likely earmarked to cover the $1.75MM buyout of Straw’s $8MM club option for the 2027 season.

With the international pool space, it’s fair to wonder about the Jays and their connection to Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki. He has to choose his next club in less than a week and is subject to the international bonus pool signing rules. It has been reported that the Jays are one of three finalists for his services, alongside the Dodgers and Padres. Nicholson-Smith and Davidi both caution that this deal does not mean Sasaki has made a decision, rather that the Jays are being prepared for the possibility of Sasaki choosing them. It’s possible that the Padres view themselves as now out of the running, as they have reportedly started finalizing deals with other international amateurs, something they had put on hold while waiting for more info.

Unlike most free agents, Sasaki isn’t going to sign with the club that can offer him the most money. Since he is coming over to North America prior to his 25th birthday, having recently turned 23, he is considered an amateur under MLB’s rules. As such, he is subject to the league’s bonus pool system. Under this system, each team gets a set amount of money to spend on international amateurs each year. As laid out by Ben Badler of Baseball America, the 2025 pools are each between $5-8MM. Broadly speaking, the smaller-market clubs get a bit more than the bigger clubs. A club can also lower its pool amount by signing a player that rejected a qualifying offer.

Teams can trade their bonus pool space with each other, in increments of $250K, but a team can’t increase its initial allotment by more than 60%. As such, Sasaki won’t be able to sign for more than a few million bucks. There will also be a posting fee owed to the Chiba Lotte Marines, his Nippon Professional Baseball club, though that will also be minimal. If money were his primary motivation, he likely would stayed in Japan until he turned 25. That’s what Yoshinobu Yamamoto did, which allowed him to secure a $325MM deal from the Dodgers.

Sasaki is therefore presumably choosing his next clubs based on other factors. He and his agent Joel Wolfe have been fairly cagey about what those factors might be, leaving baseball fans to speculate. It has been suggested that geography, a team’s pitching development reputation and/or long-term competitive outlook are possible factors, though those are mostly guesses.

Though money won’t be the main factor, it’s possible that Sasaki and his reps would like a large bonus, simply out of respect and as a reflection of his status. Sasaki is far more coveted than even the top international amateurs from any other year. The vast majority of signees in the pool system are 16-year-olds from Latin America who are years away from contributing and come with the standard uncertainties that are present with even the best prospects. The best of those guys can sometimes get bonuses of $5MM or more. The Mets gave Elian Peña $5MM this week, the top bonus for an international signing of this year so far.

Sasaki, on the other hand, is viewed as a plug-and-play ace. He already has four years of experience in Japan, having posted a 2.10 earned run average in that time. Though he doesn’t have the ability to ask for Yamamoto money, perhaps he and his reps want to at least get to something in the $6-10MM range so that he at least gets the symbolic victory of being the top bonus of his class.

The Jays started with a pool of $6,261,600. The Dodgers had their pool dropped by $1MM for signing Shohei Ohtani, since he rejected a qualifying offer and they were a competitive balance tax payor in 2023, winding up at $5,146,200. Since the Jays are allowed to increase their pool by 60%, they can theoretically get that number as high as $10,018,560. This deal gets them up to $8,261,600.

In a normal year, all 30 MLB clubs would announced most of their signings on the first day of the international signing period on January 15. That’s because most of these bonuses have been negotiated years in advance. However, Sasaki’s presence has thrown a wrench into the normal operation of things. The Jays, Dodgers and Padres have reportedly been holding off on finalizing their international signings as they await Sasaki’s decision. His posting window closes January 23, so resolution will have to come soon. As mentioned, the Padres are reportedly going to start finalizing some of their international agreements. That doesn’t mean they are definitely out on Sasaki but is obviously a different approach to what the Jays are doing now.

Time will tell whether this extra pool space can help the Jays at all in signing Sasaki, but it suggests they still view it as a possibility. If Sasaki ends up signing elsewhere, they could perhaps try to trade some of that pool space later or use it in a different way. The Sasaki situation has also thrown a few other things into disarray, as a few prospects that were committed to the Dodgers ultimately pivoted to sign elsewhere, not wanting to wait around. Darell Morel, Oscar Patiño and Teilon Serrano each walked away from the Dodgers to sign with the Pirates, White Sox and Twins, respectively. As this game of musical chairs plays out, it’s possible that there will be some interesting ways to use pool space, even without Sasaki.

To get that extra pool space, the Jays are taking a dead-money contract off the Guardians’ hands. Straw signed a five-year, $25MM extension with the Guardians in April 2022 that covered the 2022-27 seasons, plus the $8MM club option for 2027 and an $8.5MM club option ($500K buyout) for 2028.

These options are almost sure to be declined since Straw’s performance dropped up almost immediately after he signed the extension. An elite defender and runner, Straw had passable offense for a while but fell off a cliff. Through the end of 2021, he had a .265/.343/.341 batting line and 94 wRC+. But in the past three years, that line has been a dismal .229/.295/.284, which translates to a 67 wRC+. He also hit .240/.321/.329 in Triple-A last year for a wRC+ of 72.

His previous level of offense was still subpar but it made him a useful player when combined with his glovework and baserunning. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 3.0 wins above replacement in 2021, for instance. But the dropoff at the plate made Straw unrosterable, so the Guardians have outrighted him off their 40-man multiple times.

Since Straw has more than three years of service time, he can reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. But since his service clock is still short of five years, heading to the open market would mean forfeiting what’s left of his contract. He wasn’t on their roster at the time of the trade and therefore won’t have a spot with the Jays.

Though it’s mostly a salary dump, it’s possible the Jays could envision a path to Straw helping their big league team. Daulton Varsho is the club’s primary center fielder but he is recovering from shoulder surgery and might miss Opening Day. If that comes to pass, it’s possible Straw could help give the Jays a glove-first cover option until Varsho is ready, perhaps in a fourth outfielder role. Straw’s service time count is currently at four years and 125 days. A new “year” rolls over at 172 days, meaning Straw is 47 shy of the five-year mark. That makes it possible for the Jays to roster Straw for a few weeks and send him back off the roster again, knowing that he will clear waivers and accept an outright assignment.

For the Guardians, this is the second time this offseason that they have dumped a notable contract on the Jays. Just over a month ago, the Guards sent Andrés Giménez and Nick Sandlin to Toronto in exchange for Spencer Horwitz and Nick Mitchell, with Horwitz later flipped to the Pirates. Giménez is still guaranteed $97.5MM over the five years left on his extension.

Between Giménez and Straw, the Guards have sent $113MM of future payroll commitments north of the border. They did lose a useful player in Giménez but likely feel they have plenty of internal infield options to make up for his absence. They also lost Sandlin but they had the best bullpen in the league in 2024 and should have a strong relief corps without him. Straw wasn’t really in their plans. In short, they probably feel like the roster isn’t much worse, with now a great change in their financial picture.

Sacrificing $2MM of pool space will limit what they can do in that arena, but it’s theoretically possible that they can make up for that somewhat with the overall improvement in their ability to spend. Looking at the RosterResource page, they now have very few commitments apart from the José Ramírez deal.

Whether they will actually use that to upgrade the major league team or not is a fair question. The club’s broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group, now known as Main Street Sports, has fallen apart. The Guards are now set to go into 2025 with MLB handling their broadcasts, which will almost certainly lead to less revenue coming in. On the other hand, they just engineered a surprise division win in 2024 and could have put some extra playoff revenue in the bank. RosterResource currently projects them for a payroll of about $91MM this year, which is a bit below the $98MM Opening Day figure that Cot’s Baseball Contracts gave them a year ago.

For the Jays, the Straw deal nudges their payroll up but only slightly. They reportedly made a strong offer to Corbin Burnes a few weeks ago, which was likely north of $30MM annually. He ultimately signed with the Diamondbacks for $210MM over six years, an average annual value of $35MM, though there are deferrals that knock those number down in terms of net present value. Still, the Jays were probably at least in that range. They have since added Jeff Hoffman, a three-year, $33MM deal with an AAV of $11MM. Straw’s deal will add another few million but perhaps there’s still some powder dry. The club has been tied to most of the top free agents still available, including Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Jack Flaherty, Anthony Santander and Nick Pivetta.

Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi (multiple links) reported that the Blue Jays were getting $2MM in pool space, and the $3.75MM figure contributed by the Guardians to Straw’s salary.  The Athletic’s Zack Meisel had the breakdown of how the $3.75MM would be allotted over the course of Straw’s remaining contract.

Padres To Sign Top International Prospects Jhoan De La Cruz, Carlos Alvarez

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The Padres are in the process of finalizing signings of two top international prospects out of the Dominican Republic, lefty Carlos Alvarez and shortstop Jhoan De La Cruz, per reports from Will Sammon of The Athletic and Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com. Alvarez will receive a signing bonus worth around $1MM, per Romero. De La Cruz’s bonus isn’t yet known, but Romero previously suggested he and the Padres had an agreement in the $2MM range. Baseball America’s Ben Badler had previously pegged De La Cruz between $1MM and $1.5MM. The broader takeaway here, however, is Romero tweeting that multiple sources have indicated the Padres believe they’re now out of the running for star Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki.

Sammon adds that the Alvarez had been originally committed to the Padres but has since been exploring other opportunities in the wake of their emergence as a Sasaki finalist. He’ll now indeed sign in San Diego, which supports the notion that a signing of Sasaki is no longer in the cards for the Padres.

San Diego was one of three finalists for Sasaki, alongside the Dodgers and Blue Jays. There’s no indication that Sasaki has made a final decision yet. The Dodgers were said to be exploring trades to add extra space to their MLB-low $5.146MM international bonus pool. The Jays and Padres have a slightly larger pool, both landing at $6.262MM, though San Diego was also reportedly looking into trades to bolster their maximum potential bonus.

Agent Joel Wolfe has previously suggested, however, that Sasaki’s decision won’t simply come down to who offers the largest bonus. After all, if maxing out his earnings were Sasaki’s top priority, he could’ve waited two more years until he was 25 and thus a “professional” rather than an “amateur” under MLB’s international free agent structure. That’s the route Yoshinobu Yamamoto chose, and it resulted in a record $325MM contract with the Dodgers for the 25-year-old hurler.

Until Sasaki formally puts pen to paper with another team, a sliver of hope for Friars fans remains, but this morning’s reports are bleak with regard to their chances on Sasaki. De La Cruz and Alvarez, however, will still be additions of note to the lower levels of San Diego’s system. MLB.com ranks them as the No. 21 and No. 39 prospects in this year’s class. Badler writes that De La Cruz doesn’t have one standout tool but has average or better tools across the board, with present gap power and the physical frame (5’11”, 170 pounds) and defensive tools necessary to stick at shortstop long-term.

Alvarez turned 17 in November but is already 6’5″ tall and already hitting 93 mph with his heater, per Badler. MLB.com’s report on him notes that he’s a former outfielder, meaning his arm is fresher than many teenaged pitching prospects. That he’s already flashing better-than-average command and secondary pitches despite being relatively new to the mound is an encouraging sign as well.

Latest On Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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After agreeing to a $28.5MM salary to avoid arbitration last week, the Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. can turn their focus to a long-term deal. The four-time All-Star said last month that the Jays had offered him around $340MM, which he said was well below his asking price. That offer reportedly predated Juan Soto’s $765MM agreement with the Mets that shattered prior contractual precedents.

Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that the Jays have not had any extension talks with Guerrero’s camp since before Christmas. That indicates there was little to no discussion about a long-term deal in the talks to avoid exchanging arbitration filing figures. However, Rosenthal and Sammon write that extension talks are expected to pick back up before the beginning of Spring Training.

Guerrero said last month that he would cut off negotiations as soon as Spring Training begins. It’s common for players to publicly impose deadlines — many prefer not to discuss contracts once the regular season gets underway — but some players will ultimately continue talks beyond those “cutoffs” if they feel negotiations are making progress. If both team and player are amenable, extension discussions can take place at any point.

While Guerrero isn’t going to get Soto money, he’s clearly looking well beyond the $313.5MM extension that Rafael Devers received from the Red Sox over the 2022-23 offseason. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote last week that Guerrero’s asking price was believed to be at or above $450MM. Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggests similarly, reporting that the former MVP runner-up is looking to top $400MM and could aim for a deal closer to the half-billion dollar mark.

It remains to be seen whether the Jays have the appetite for that kind of investment. They made bigger offers to Shohei Ohtani and Soto, suggesting they’re amenable to a huge expenditure for certain players. Ohtani and Soto presented opportunities to add superstars from outside the organization. Extending Guerrero would be a major boost to a fanbase frustrated by a series of near-misses in free agency over the last two winters. It could also be necessary to keep the team from going into a rebuild after next season. Toronto already faces an uphill path to contention in the AL East. Competing in 2026 if Guerrero and Bo Bichette walk may not be feasible.

In any case, the focus seems squarely on an extension. Rosenthal and Sammon write that the team much prefers to keep Guerrero rather than trade him. They suggest that, in order to even consider a trade, the Jays would need to receive a haul that tops what the Yankees sent to the Padres for one year of Soto’s services last winter.

New York sent two seasons of Michael King — who had proven himself as a multi-inning relief weapon and flashed significant upside in a limited look as a starter — as the headliner. The Yankees included highly-regarded pitching prospect Drew Thorpe (whom San Diego flipped as the centerpiece of the Dylan Cease deal), controllable depth starters Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez, and backup catcher Kyle Higashioka to the Padres. The Yanks also got Trent Grisham in the deal.

That’s a massive haul for one year of any player, which reflects the Jays’ preference for holding onto Guerrero. Perhaps that’d change if extension talks don’t progress, though it’d be a major surprise if they dealt him before Opening Day. Toronto hopes to compete for a playoff spot this season. They could still add one of the top unsigned hitters (e.g. Anthony Santander, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso). Even if the Jays don’t succeed in extending Guerrero, they’d presumably prefer to see how things play out in the season’s first half before deciding whether to make him available.

Mets Reportedly Expect Pete Alonso To Sign Elsewhere

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The Mets and Pete Alonso have been in a staredown for a while but it seems the club is blinking. Andy Martino of SNY reports that they now expect him to sign elsewhere, with today’s agreement with Jesse Winker part of a plan to spread money around to various alternatives. Earlier today, Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that Alonso’s market was heating up, with the Blue Jays and Mets involved, as well as a third unidentified team.

Alonso and the Mets have clearly had mutual interest in reaching a new deal for a long time, but without the ability to agree on a price point. The club reportedly offered him a seven-year, $158MM extension in the summer of 2023, but a deal didn’t get done. Since then, there have been changes on both sides of the negotiations. The Mets hired David Stearns to replace Billy Eppler atop their baseball operations department in September of 2023, with Alonso then hiring Scott Boras the following month.

During the 2024 season, the sides generally expressed admiration for each other but never seemed to make much effort to get an extension done. Alonso turned down a qualifying offer and became a free agent. Though he was connected to various teams in recent months, he never seemed to get a deal to his liking. Alonso’s camp reportedly pivoted to a short-term deal, pitching the Mets a three-year pact with opt-outs. The Mets seemed to be somewhat amenable to this framework but a gap on the money still prevented a deal from coming together.

In recent weeks, the Mets have also been connected to players like Winker, Anthony Santander, Alex Verdugo, Tanner Scott, Luis Arráez and Tim Hill. They also reportedly offered Teoscar Hernández a two-year deal before he returned to the Dodgers on a three-year pact.

Martino’s report compares the Mets’ current plans to those of the Yankees after missing out on Juan Soto, spreading money around to various players as opposed to one big splash. After Soto went to the Mets, the Yankees gave out deals to Max Fried and Paul Goldschmidt, as well as trading for Devin Williams and Cody Bellinger. They could have done some of those moves in conjunction with Soto but perhaps were more aggressive in those areas since they hadn’t tied up their resources with the one mega deal.

The Winker signing alone doesn’t stop the Mets from bringing back Alonso, as the two coexisted on the roster in 2024, with Alonso the regular at first as Winker spent time in the outfield corners and designated hitter slot. But there has been some reporting that the club wants to use some internal options at the corners. Mark Vientos was the regular third baseman last year and had a breakout year at the plate, but with subpar defensive metrics. He could perhaps move over to first, while the Mets use Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña to cover third base.

Perhaps things will change in the coming days but it now seems possible that the Mets are indeed prepared to walk away from Alonso. The earlier reporting from The Athletic indicated the Mets were in talks with various players and didn’t want the stalled Alonso negotiations to get in their way. While Winker doesn’t strictly block the path for Alonso to come back to Queens, it does seem to signal that the Mets are prepared to move on.

If it does indeed come to pass, it will be a surprisingly lackluster end to the Mets-Alonso relationship. He was a homegrown star with some New York roots and come up through the club’s system after being selected in the second round of the 2016 draft. He debuted with a big splash in 2019, hitting 53 home runs and also winning the home run derby. That campaign is now widely viewed as the juiced ball season, but Alonso continued to be a big homer threat in subsequent years.

Alonso now has 226 home runs over the past six seasons, second only to Aaron Judge in that time. He won another derby title in 2021 and was a staple of the club over their recent history, not having played less than 152 games in any full season.

During that time, the Mets went from a punchline to a powerhouse. While they were previously known for having middling budgets and results, Steve Cohen purchased the club ahead of the 2021 season and made them one of the top spenders in the league. They have made the playoffs in two of the past three years, with Alonso playing the hero last year. He hit four home runs in 13 playoff games just a few months ago, including the series-flipping homer off Williams to get the Mets past the Brewers and out of the Wild Card round.

But his star power in the media and general public seemed to outpace his popularity in today’s analytically-inclined front offices. While the home run power has been real, Alonso’s other contributions have been muted. His walk rates have been decent but not outstanding, he’s not a burner on the basepaths and his defense hasn’t been well regarded. His overall offense has also declined. While he hit .261/.349/.535 for a 137 wRC+ through 2022, he slashed just .229/.324/.480 for a 121 wRC+. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 2.1 wins above replacement last year, a solid but not elite number. There were 119 position players who were at 2.2 fWAR or higher last year.

It therefore seemed possible from the start of the offseason that Alonso would find his offers lacking in free agency. As part of MLBTR’s annual Top 50 list, we considered predicting Alonso for a deal along the lines of the three years and $80MM that Bellinger got from the Cubs last year after he lingered in free agency into February. We backed down from that prediction, putting 5/$125MM on Alonso, but it now appears he may well end up getting something like that deal. It just might be somewhere other than Queens.

It’s a bit of a surprising pivot, as the Mets have not been shy about spending since Cohen bought the team. While Stearns was in Milwaukee, he never spent a lot of money on first basemen, but he never had the resources he now has. Despite the deeper bank account, it still seems as though Stearns would prefer to invest in ways he considers wise. The club also didn’t play at the top of the starting pitching market, not signing guys like Fried or Corbin Burnes, instead taking risks on guys like Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes. Montas is coming off a down year while Holmes will be trying to pivot from the bullpen to the rotation.

All this will seemingly leave Alonso looking elsewhere for his next gig, with Toronto one possibility. The Jays already have a first baseman in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but it doesn’t appear as though the plan would be to trade him. Per the reporting from The Athletic, the plan would be for Guerrero and Alonso to share first base and DH, with Guerrero occasionally crossing the diamond to play third base. Though the article from The Athletic says the Jays would “prefer” to hang onto Guerrero, Rosenthal made an appearance on Foul Territory and more emphatically shot down the possibility of Guerrero being traded.

Though the fit would be a bit awkward, the Jays could use the power. Toronto’s offense was close to league average last year, but a lot of that was thanks to having a walk rate that was bested by only six other teams. In the home run department, they were actually one the worst clubs, ahead of just the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox.

They don’t really have a strict designated hitter, which perhaps provides a path for Alonso and Guerrero to share a lineup. Justin Turner was their primary DH for the first half of last year but he was traded to the Mariners at the deadline. It would make it a bit harder for the club to rest someone like George Springer, but it seems the Jays have some openness to it regardless. Guerrero taking the hot corner could allow greater flexibility, though he only has 104 innings there over the past five seasons. Most of that came late last year as the Jays were playing out the string on a lost season. It’s unclear how much willingness they have to put Guerrero there in meaningful games.

Financially, it seems the club still has powder dry. They reportedly had a strong offer on the table for Burnes as of a few weeks ago, before he signed with the Diamondbacks. Since then, they signed Jeff Hoffman to a three-year, $33MM deal, but that is surely well shy of what they were willing to pay Burnes.

It’s theoretically possible that signing Alonso could give the Jays some cover for the event they can’t sign Guerrero, an impending free agent, to an extension. But it seems highly likely that Alonso will be securing a deal with the ability to opt out after 2025, meaning he would only stick around for 2026 if he has a down year. They would likely prefer to have Guerrero locked up long term, since he’s significantly younger than Alonso, while seeing Pete walk away earlier.

There are surely other clubs in the mix as well. Alonso has been connected to the Giants, Red Sox and Angels in recent weeks. Teams like the Tigers, Athletics and Mariners make sense as speculative fits. Since Alonso rejected a QO, the Mets will receive a draft pick after the fourth round if he signs elsewhere. The penalty for the signing club will depend on their revenue-sharing status and whether they paid the competitive balance tax last year. Perhaps we will have clarity soon as the staring contest with the Mets appears to be ending.

Alex Bregman Not Considering Short-Term Deals

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As several of the top free agents of the offseason linger on the market with spring training now under a month away, some have reportedly pivoted to consider short-term/opt-out laden contracts. Pete Alonso and the Mets are reportedly discussing a three-year arrangements with at least one opt-out. Both Anthony Santander and Jack Flaherty have recently signaled willingness to consider similar structures. As for third baseman Alex Bregman, however, agent Scott Boras tells Bob Nightengale of USA Today that his client remains focused on a longer-term pact and suggests that there’s ample interest to make that happen.

“Bregman’s a championship player, teams know it,” Boras tells Nightengale. “It’s really a matter of his decision-making and theirs, about how you can close up that gap. There’s substantial interest (in long-term) deals.”

Nightengale adds that the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Tigers are among the teams still “engaged” with Bregman. The Cubs showed some cursory interest as well, per a recent report from Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, but that was more a matter of due diligence to see if Bregman is open to the precise type of short-term arrangement against which Boras is pushing back.

One element of the slower-than-expected market for Bregman (and perhaps for Alonso, Flaherty and Santander) posited by Boras is a simple decrease in the number of teams willing to spend. For a second straight offseason, there’s a group of clubs that is looking to reduce payroll or at least not add to the budget in a meaningful way — largely due to concerns regarding the in-flux status of their television broadcast rights.

While there are some clubs this offseason who’ve spent after a quiet winter in free agency last time around, there are indeed quite a few whose ownership groups have handcuffed the baseball operations staff. The Padres, Twins, Cardinals, Braves, Brewers and Marlins have yet to sign a free agent to a fully guaranteed big league deal. (Atlanta, Milwaukee and Miami have given a handful of split major league deals to players with minor league options remaining.)

Each of those clubs other than Miami has been a notable buyer, to varying extents, in the free-agent market as recently as one or two years ago. Several others — Mariners ($3.5MM), Rockies ($9.75MM), Rays ($8.5MM), Pirates ($8MM) — have spent under $10MM in total. That’s one full third of the teams in MLB whose combined free agent expenditures total $29.75MM — or just barely more than Max Fried will earn annually with the Yankees.

Not all of those clubs would’ve been players for Bregman, Alonso and others with a normal offseason of spending permission from ownership, of course. But their lack of activity has lessened the demand for mid-tier and lower-tier free agents, leaving a larger supply of options for the offseason’s actual spenders to peruse.

Bregman has received at least one long-term offer, as the incumbent Astros put forth a reported six-year, $156MM deal early in the offseason. That pact is surely no longer on the table, as Houston pivoted first to an effort to acquire Nolan Arenado — a deal that Arenado blocked with his no-trade clause — and then to sign Christian Walker at first base. Having already acquired infielder Isaac Paredes from the Cubs as part of their return for star outfielder Kyle Tucker, Houston now has Paredes at the hot corner, Jeremy Peña at shortstop, Jose Altuve at second base and Walker at first base. They’re also just north of the luxury tax threshold, and there’s been talk of potential trades to dip back under that number. Suffice it to say, $26MM per year for Bregman no longer feels plausible in Houston.

Latest On Mets, Pete Alonso

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7:28PM: Alonso and the Mets “are said to be making progress on at least the structure of a proposed deal that’s expected to be for three years and include at least one opt out,” according to Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman.  “While the sides appear amenable to that short-term structure,” Sherman and Heyman write, there’s still “a gap between offer and counteroffer,” with specific figures not mentioned.

5:15PM: The Mets and Pete Alonso have seemingly been in a staredown for quite a while and it’s still unclear who will blink first. Reporting from last week indicated that Alonso’s camp had pitched a short-term deal with opt-outs to the Mets but Alonso remains unsigned. Reports from both Andy Martino of SNY and Joel Sherman of The New York Post suggest a pivot point is coming where the Mets may move on to plans that don’t involve Alonso having a place on the 2025 team.

It has long seemed possible that Alonso’s free agency could go this way. Last winter, the “Boras Four” lingered in free agency well into the new year and eventually settled for contracts below expectations. Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery all signed deals that only were guaranteed for two or three years, though with each player having the chance to opt-out after each season. There were reasons to expect Alonso might follow them down this road.

Alonso reportedly turned down an extension offer of seven years and $158MM back in the summer of 2023. He still had one arbitration season to go at that point, ultimately making $20.5MM in 2024, so he effectively turned down $137.5MM for six free agent years. There had been reports that Alonso was looking at the contracts of Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson at targets. Freeman signed for $162MM over six years, though with deferrals. Olson signed an eight-year, $168MM extension when he was still two years away from free agency.

But Alonso isn’t as well-rounded of a player as those two. While his power is elite, his plate discipline and defense are both below Freeman and Olson. He’s also coming off a couple of relative down years. He had a career batting line of .261/.349/.535 and a 137 wRC+ through the 2022 season but then hit .229/.324/.480 for a 122 wRC+ over the two most recent campaigns. That’s still strong production but it will naturally concern a club thinking about making a long-term investment.

Alonso is still unsigned with pitchers and catchers set to report to spring training in less than a month. There is apparent willingness to pivot to a short-term deal but a deal still hasn’t come together. There is still more time, as Bellinger’s agreement came together in late February last year, Chapman’s in early March. However, today’s reports both point to the Mets starting to consider other options.

The Mets have had a front office shakeup since offering that extension to Alonso. Billy Eppler was the general manager at that time but David Stearns is now running the club’s baseball operations department. Stearns never really dedicated a lot of resources to first base, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. A three-year, $16MM deal for Eric Thames was his biggest investment in the position for the Brewers. Milwaukee non-tendered Chris Carter after he hit 41 home runs in 2016, rather than pay him a projected $8.1MM salary.

Stearns is working with more resources now that he’s with the Mets but has continued to be measured in how he uses those resources, apart from the Juan Soto deal. Instead of signing top free agent starting pitchers, he has taken bounceback fliers on guys like Frankie Montas and Griffin Canning. He also signed Clay Holmes, hoping to get starting pitcher value for reliever prices.

The Mets do have some internal options for corner infield work. Mark Vientos had a great season in 2024, mostly playing third base, but his defense didn’t receive strong grades. It’s been suggested that he could be moved over to first base, with the hot corner then being open for a competition between guys like Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña and Ronny Mauricio. There’s some uncertainty in going down that road and there would be some sense in adding Alonso back into the mix, but it seems the Mets and Alonso’s camp can’t agree on a fair price.

Teams will naturally be attracted to a short-term deal as it lowers the chances of them being saddled with a player’s decline years, but the player usually looks to get a higher average annual value as a compromise. Bellinger’s deal guaranteed him $80MM but in frontloaded fashion, allowing him to opt out after one year with $30MM in his pocket or after two years with $60MM in the bank. Alonso is perhaps looking for something similar, which the Mets may not be keen on.

The Mets are set to be a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax and RosterResource projects their CBT number at $276MM next year. Signing Alonso to something in the range of $25-30MM annually would push that close to the fourth and final tier of the tax, which is $301MM this year. The Mets would pay a 95% tax on spending from tier three to tier four, then a 110% tax for spending over the top line. As such, even employing Alonso for one year and then having him opt out would cost them something like $60MM. If he has a disappointing season and doesn’t opt out, as happened with Bellinger, they would be stuck with the deal for another year or two.

The Mets also stand to receive draft pick compensation if Alonso signs elsewhere. As a tax payor, their bonus pick wouldn’t be until after the fourth round. That’s not massively important in baseball terms but it’s not nothing and it would go away if they re-sign Alonso.

It’s a tricky calculation for the Mets to make with a franchise favorite, but it seems they are willing to play hard ball and move on to other options soon. Martino does mention that the Mets checked in with the Blue Jays about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but also downplays the talks significantly, characterizing the fit as “fantasy baseball.” That aligns with public comments from Toronto’s general manager Ross Atkins, who has often downplayed the likelihood of the Jays trading Guerrero or Bo Bichette.

Martino mentions a reunion with Jesse Winker or signing Anthony Santander as other possible pivots, though he adds that the latter is less likely to come to fruition. For Alonso, if he’s not destined to go back to Queens, he will have to do his own pivot. MLBTR recently looked at some of the clubs that could potentially sign him to a short-term deal, with the Giants, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels, Athletics and Tigers some of the options.

Pirates Acquire Brett de Geus

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The Pirates have acquired right-hander Brett de Geus from the Blue Jays in exchange for cash, per announcements from both clubs. Toronto designated de Geus for assignment last week to create 40-man roster space for Jeff Hoffman.

The 27-year-old de Geus pitched 11 1/3 innings in the majors last year over the course of brief stints with the Mariners, Marlins and Blue Jays. He yielded nine earned runs in that time (7.15 ERA) and has a career 7.48 ERA in parts of two big league seasons (61 1/3 innings).

Obviously, that number is an eyesore, and de Geus’ career marks in Triple-A don’t inspire much more confidence (6.66 ERA in 50 innings). However, teams looking beneath the hood will see a sinker that averages better than 96 mph, consistently plus ground-ball rates, and interesting swing-and-miss data on the 6’2″ righty’s secondary offerings (cutter, knuckle curve, and seldom-used splitter). A former Rule 5 pick, de Geus has seen time with the Royals, Mariners, Marlins, Jays and now Pirates over the past two calendar years.

While de Geus will have to earn a spot in Pittsburgh’s bullpen — if he survives the rest of the winter on the 40-man roster — he won’t necessarily have to break camp with the club if he doesn’t. He has two minor league option years remaining, so the Bucs can hold onto him as relief depth to begin the season if they’re so inclined, with no risk of exposing him to waivers.

Despite the lack of success in the majors and upper minors, de Geus has been on four different 40-man rosters since April and six dating back to 2021. On the one hand, it’s easy to argue that’s because he’s routinely proven expendable. On the other, it’s also indicative of the fact that even with the unsightly earned run averages, teams have had a hard time sneaking de Geus through waivers. It’s clear that clubs are intrigued by his raw stuff, even if the results have yet to line up.

MLBTR Podcast: The Jeff Hoffman Situation, Justin Verlander, And The Marlins’ Rotation

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

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