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Poll: Where Will Roki Sasaki Sign?

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The 2025 international amateur signing period begins tomorrow. While that milestone is a bit of a footnote for many fans in the offseason calendar, this year is different thanks to the presence of 23-year-old phenom Roki Sasaki. Sasaki was posted for major league clubs by Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chiba Lotte Marines just after the Winter Meetings last month. As an NPB player coming to the majors before the age of 25, he’s considered an amateur despite his dominance over the course of four seasons in Japan.

The fact that Sasaki is coming to the majors through the system in place for international amateurs created a wide-open race for his services on paper. International amateurs can only sign minor league deals that are accompanied by signing bonuses from each team’s hard-capped international bonus pools. As such, clubs without substantial payrolls couldn’t be outbid by their large-market counterparts. More than 20 teams reportedly checked in with Sasaki when he was posted last month. He met with a number of teams in Los Angeles (where his agents at Wasserman are headquartered) before the holidays, including the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Rangers, and Cubs. Now, with just over a week left in Sasaki’s posting window, a trio of finalists has emerged: the Dodgers, Padres, and Blue Jays.

That the Dodgers are a finalist for Sasaki’s services should surprise no one. After all, Sasaki is a player who wanted to compete at the highest level badly enough to come over to the major leagues early and in doing so chose to forfeit the opportunity to land a nine-figure deal. Given that competitiveness, joining the reigning World Series champions who haven’t missed the postseason since 2011 figures to hold obvious appeal. Aside from that, the Dodgers are perhaps the largest international brand in the sport, employing former NPB and KBO stars like Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and, now, Korean infielder Hyeseong Kim. That global brand (and the potential for international endorsements that comes with it) could hold plenty of appeal for Sasaki given the fact that he’ll be signing a minor league contract.

All of that has made the Dodgers such an obvious fit for Sasaki’s services to many around the game that his agent, Joel Wolfe, felt compelled earlier this winter to deny rumors of a “handshake” deal with the Dodgers before Sasaki’s posting period had even begun. Despite this air of inevitability surrounding the Dodgers and Sasaki in the eyes of some fans and media members, however, there are two other finalists that each can offer a legitimate case for Sasaki’s services in their own right.

The Padres have received nearly as much attention as a likely co-favorite. Multiple reports have suggested that Sasaki has a strong relationship with veteran right-hander Yu Darvish, who has four seasons left on his deal in San Diego and would as such be available to serve as a mentor to Sasaki and guide him through his transition to the big leagues. San Diego, much like Los Angeles, also could benefit from being on the west coast with the associated mild climate and travel-related benefits that often appeal to NPB players. The Padres can also offer more money to Sasaki than the Dodgers; their bonus pool is $6,261,600 this year as compared to L.A.’s pool of just $5,146,200, though either club could trade for more bonus pool money in order to put together a more tempting offer for Sasaki.

Compared to the Dodgers and Padres, the Blue Jays appear to be a dark horse candidate. A connection between Sasaki and the club was first made just yesterday, when reporting surfaced that Sasaki had met with the club in Toronto. The Blue Jays have long sought to court top talents in free agency, including a pursuit of Ohtani last winter where they were generally acknowledged to have finished as the runner-up for the MVP’s services. Though the Blue Jays aren’t as well set-up for success as the Dodgers and Padres, having finished fifth in a crowded AL East just last year, Toronto could offer Sasaki the opportunity to be the face of the franchise in a way that more star-studded teams in L.A. and San Diego cannot — particularly if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ultimately signs elsewhere in free agency next winter. What’s more, the Blue Jays have the same $6,261,600 bonus pool the Padres have and therefore could outbid the Dodgers financially.

With just over a week left until the January 23 deadline by which Sasaki has to make a decision, where do MLBTR readers believe he’ll land? Will he hitch his wagon to the reigning World Series champs in Los Angeles? Will he join his longtime friend and mentor Darvish in San Diego? Or will he surprise the baseball world and opt to make a name for himself in Toronto? Have your say in the poll below:

Dodgers, Padres, Blue Jays Reportedly Finalists For Roki Sasaki

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The Roki Sasaki frenzy is nearing its completion. Several teams have reportedly been told that they won’t be signing the right-hander and now Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that the Dodgers, Padres and Blue Jays are the three finalists. The Cubs are no longer in the running, according to Mike Rodriguez, with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic adding that the Cubs have been informed of their status.

It seems that today was the day that Sasaki and his reps started informing teams that had been eliminated from the running. Earlier today, various reports indicated that the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Rangers and Diamondbacks would not be signing Sasaki. The Mariners were vaguely connected to Sasaki at times and hadn’t been expressly eliminated, but it seems they didn’t make it to the podium as one of the top three.

Sasaki’s decision has been one of the biggest wild cards hanging over the offseason. Since he’s coming over to the big leagues before his 25th birthday, he’s considered an amateur under MLB rules and is therefore subject to the international bonus pool system. As such, no club could be initially ruled out just based on economics, as is usually the case with other free agents.

Each team gets an annual pool of money that they are allowed to spend on international amateurs. This year’s pools are in the $5-8MM range, with the smaller-market clubs mostly having the slightly larger ones. Teams can trade for more pool space but they can’t increase their initial allotment by more than 60%. A posting fee will also be owed to the Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki’s former club in Japan, though that will only add 20% of the bonus. As such, each team has roughly the same ability to pay Sasaki a few million bucks.

Sasaki is likely therefore to decide based on factors beyond money. After all, if money was his top priority, he probably would have waited until he turned 25. That’s what Yoshinobu Yamamoto did, which led to a $325MM deal from the Dodgers.

No one can say for sure what Sasaki is prioritizing, though the Dodgers and Padres have been seen as logical suitors for a while now. Both clubs are on the West Coast, which is closer to Japan, perhaps a favorable factor when considering the flights for Sasaki and his family members. The Dodgers also have a strong reputation as a whole, having made the postseason in each year going back to 2013, with a fresh World Series victory in 2024. The Padres don’t have quite the same track record of success but have been good in recent years.

Both clubs also have Japanese players on the roster, with the Dodgers having Yamamoto and Ohtani, while the Padres have Yu Darvish. Some reports have suggested Sasaki and Darvish have an especially close relationship.

The Jays have been floated as a landing spot for Sasaki far less than the Dodgers or Padres, which is sensible. They are not on the West Coast. They had a strong run of contention from 2020 to 2023 but are coming off a down season. They had Yusei Kikuchi until last year’s trade deadline but don’t currently have a Japanese player on the roster.

In April of 2023, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that “Some Japanese players are uncomfortable being major-league teammates with other Japanese players because of the importance of seniority in Japan’s hierarchical culture, major-league executives and agents say.” That piece was examining the possibility of Ohtani singing with the Mets when they already had Kodai Senga on the roster. Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe has downplayed the importance of a club having Japanese players on its roster, either positively or negatively. “That was never a topic of discussion,” Wolfe said last month, per Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.

It’s possible that Sasaki will be attracted to playing in another country for other reasons. Wolfe has suggested that the Japanese media was often unkind to Sasaki, which could perhaps make it preferable for him to be in a smaller market. Toronto isn’t exactly a small market but it would be further away from the American media spotlight. The Blue Jays are also owned by Rogers Communications, the media company that broadcasts the club’s games on television and radio. Perhaps that would allow the Jays to promise Sasaki a more guarded environment in terms of media access. Toronto is also a city with a reputation for its diversity and relatively low crime rates.

Those are all speculative arguments, but the same could be said about the arguments for Sasaki preferring Los Angeles or San Diego. Sasaki and Wolfe have given very few clues about what will be used to make the final decision, leaving the baseball world to mostly guess.

Whatever he decides will likely have ripple effects into the rest of the offseason. The Padres have a tight budget and needs all over their roster. Trading Dylan Cease is reportedly one potential solution to their situation, which would perhaps become more likely if they sign Sasaki. The Dodgers already have lots of rotation options and might consider a trade of their own if they add Sasaki. That’s perhaps less likely with the Jays, who have been trying to add a starting pitcher all winter without success thus far.

There will also be domino effects elsewhere. Whichever team signs Sasaki will likely have to walk away from verbal commitments to teenagers in Latin America, as they will need to redirect bonus money to Sasaki. That will lead to those players then looking for other clubs. Some of this has seemingly already started to happen, as the Pirates are reportedly going to sign Darell Morel, a Dominican shortstop that had previously been committed to the Dodgers.

It won’t take long for all of these knock-on effects to really ramp up. Sasaki’s posting window closes on January 23, meaning resolution will be coming in less than a week. He can’t officially sign until January 15, when the new international signing period begins, though it’s possible an agreement could be reported before then.

Braves Walked Away From Jeff Hoffman Deal Due To Physical

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1:50pm: Bowman further reports that the Braves’ offer to Hoffman was a five-year pact valued between $45-48MM total. The idea would have been for Hoffman to get an opportunity to pitch out of the rotation in the season’s first few years before a potential move to the ’pen down the road. The lengthy nature of the pact suggests that part of the aim was to tamp down the annual value of the contract and thus reduce the luxury hit.

1:25pm: Right-hander Jeff Hoffman signed with the Blue Jays on Friday, a three-year deal with a $33MM guarantee. Shortly after the Jays announced that signing, it was reported that the Orioles had agreed to give Hoffman $40MM over three years but backed out after flagging a shoulder issue in his physical. The saga continues today, as Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports that the Braves also walked away from a deal with Hoffman.

There are no details on Hoffman’s agreement with Atlanta. It’s unclear if this was before or after the agreement with Baltimore. It’s also not publicly known what sort of financials details were worked out between Atlanta and Hoffman. Bowman doesn’t specifically mention what issue Atlanta found in the physical, though it’s presumably the same shoulder problem that the O’s flagged.

It’s a notable development on a couple of fronts. For fans of the Jays, this will perhaps add to the level of concern that already developed out of the report about the deal with the O’s. All teams have different thresholds for what is or is not a concern during a physical, but the fact that two clubs were scared away from Hoffman will understandably be a bit nerve-wracking for fans of the club he is now a member of.

It bears repeating that the Orioles didn’t want to walk away from Hoffman completely. Per last week’s reporting, Baltimore continued negotiating with Hoffman after nixing the $40MM agreement. That suggests that whatever they found in his shoulder wasn’t a dealbreaker, but rather something that lowered the amount of money they were willing to commit to him. It’s unknown how much the shoulder issue knocked off of their offer, but it presumably dropped below the $33MM figure that Hoffman got from Toronto.

Time will tell if the shoulder becomes a problem for Hoffman during the next three years, but it’s a situation that has precedents. Carlos Correa is the most notable recent example, as he originally had a 13-year, $350MM agreement with the Giants before they flagged an ankle issue in his physical. That led to a 12-year, $315MM agreement with the Mets, though that was also quashed by the ankle issue. That led Correa back to the Twins on a six-year, $200MM guarantee with four vesting options that can eventually lead to Correa earning $270MM over ten years. Since then, Correa’s results have been mixed. He got into 135 games in 2o23 with tepid offense, followed by excellent numbers in 2024 but in just 86 games, heading to the injured list due to a right oblique strain and plantar fasciitis in his right foot.

There have been other examples of disagreements about health lately. The Yankees reportedly had a deal in place to acquire Jack Flaherty at last year’s deadline but walked away due to concerns about his back in the medical reports. The Dodgers seemingly had less concern, as they swooped in to get him. Flaherty went on to stay healthy, forming a key part of the club’s rotation down the stretch and through the playoffs as the Dodgers won the World Series.

This Hoffman situation also has some parallels to Toronto’s signing of Kirby Yates a few years ago. Going into 2021, the Jays gave Yates a $5.5MM guarantee with performance bonuses but he required Tommy John surgery and missed the entire season. In the wake of that surgery, it was reported that Atlanta had walked away from giving Yates a $9MM deal while the Jays also reduced their guarantee from $8.5MM, both due to concerns with the physical.

The Jays reportedly believed that Yates’s upside was worth the risk on that modest investment, which didn’t work out. In this instance, it’s unclear if the concern is as high as it was with Yates, though the investment is far larger. Though as mentioned, the O’s were still willing to make some kind of investment in Hoffman as well, to an unknown degree.

For Atlanta, while the details of their engagement with Hoffman aren’t known, this can perhaps tell us a bit about what’s next for them. If they had an agreement with Hoffman, it was likely somewhere in the $35-45MM range. That suggests both that they have some money to spend and a willingness to use it on upgrading the pitching staff.

Hoffman reportedly got some interest as a starting pitching earlier in the offseason. It’s unknown which role Atlanta had in mind, though they did do the reliever-to-starter conversion thing with Reynaldo López last year. They signed López to a three-year, $30MM deal and then moved him to the rotation for the 2024 season. That has worked out very well so far, as López posted a 1.99 earned run average in his 25 starts last year.

A rotation addition seems to be on the to-do list for Atlanta again this winter. They lost Max Fried and Charlie Morton to other clubs via free agency and were connected to Nathan Eovaldi earlier this winter, though he later re-signed with the Rangers. On the other hand, the bullpen lost A.J. Minter, Jesse Chavez and others to free agency, while knee surgery is going to possibly keep Joe Jiménez on the IL for the whole 2025 season.

Atlanta has been fairly quiet this winter, mostly making cost-cutting moves. That includes jettisoning Jorge Soler’s contract, non-tendering Ramón Laureano, turning down an option on Travis d’Arnaud and restructuring the deals for López and Aaron Bummer. It’s unclear exactly where they want the payroll to be but RosterResource currently projects it at $201MM, about $22MM below last year’s $223MM Opening Day figure listed at Cot’s Baseball Contracts. RR also has Atlanta’s competitive balance tax number at $217MM, which is $24MM shy of the $241MM base threshold of the tax.

Atlanta has paid the tax in each of the past two years. Back in December, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos suggested the club could pay the tax again in 2025, though without firmly declaring that they would do so. Given the wiggle room they currently have, it’s possible for them to make a notable investment or two while still staying south of the line.

Hoffman could have been a part of their plans, either for the rotation or the bullpen, though they will now have the chance to redirect that money to someone else. The free agent market still features starters like Flaherty, Nick Pivetta and others, as well as relievers including Tanner Scott, Kenley Jansen, David Robertson and more. The trade market may feature names like Dylan Cease and Luis Castillo as rotation options, while Ryan Pressly and Erick Fedde are some relievers who could be available in trade talks.

Roki Sasaki Met With Blue Jays In Toronto

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Within the next ten days, we’ll know where right-hander Roki Sasaki will be playing for the foreseeable future. The Japanese right-hander is one of the most talked-about international free agents in recent memory, due to a combination of age (23), pedigree (2.10 ERA in four NPB seasons) and his decision to potentially leave hundreds of millions on the table by pursuing an MLB move right now rather than in two years, when he’d be exempt from MLB’s bonus pool system for international “amateurs.” There’s been plenty of talk about the Dodgers and Padres as favorites, but Ken Rosenthal and Andy McCullough of The Athletic report that Sasaki recently traveled to Toronto to meet with the Blue Jays in person.

Back at last month’s Winter Meetings, agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman laid out a timeline in which Sasaki would receive presentations from all interested teams and host interested parties at a central location prior to the holidays. The right-hander then planned to narrow the field and, post-holidays, meet with a smaller group of clubs in their home cities. That the Jays hosted Sasaki in Toronto ostensibly indicates that they’re still in the running in what’s effectively the second round of consideration.

That shouldn’t be construed with Toronto being considered any sort of favorite, however. Pinning down any kind of favorite at this stage remains difficult because so much hinges on the preferences of Sasaki himself. Baseball America’s Ben Badler just this morning ranked the Dodgers, Padres, Yankees and Rangers — in that order — as the likeliest to sign Sasaki.

The Dodgers and Padres have been the most heavily speculated landing spots — so much so in the case of the former that Wolfe felt obligated to publicly quash rumors of a pre-meditated deal between the two parties. Los Angeles and San Diego are both still believed to be in the running for Sasaki, who’s also been linked to the Mets, Rangers, Cubs, Mariners and Giants in recent weeks. It’s not yet clear which of those teams have hosted Sasaki for an in-person meeting at their own sites just yet.

Ultimately, the decision will boil down to where Sasaki feels most comfortable and which team he feels gives him the best long-term opportunity to develop as a pitcher. Wolfe has stated that market size isn’t a consideration. He said at last month’s Winter Meetings that he’d advise Sasaki against simply signing for the largest bonus right now, as the difference between theoretical bonus offers would be “negligible” compared to the “long-term arc of [Sasaki’s] career,” which is where he’ll truly earn his money.

Teams will still very likely to try to swing some deals to add space to their international bonus pools as they try to do everything they can to make themselves most enticing, but at least based on Wolfe’s prior comments — and based on how much Sasaki is leaving on the table to come to North American ball right now — it’s fair to presume that Sasaki won’t simply be going to the highest possible bidder.

Trade activity regarding bonus pool space is just one manner in which the international amateur market — which opens on Wednesday — is being thrown into chaos. Will Sammon, Dennis Lin and McCullough report at The Athletic that the Padres have told some international prospects with whom they’d previously reached handshake deals that they’re free to again talk to other clubs. Both the Padres and the Dodgers have also asked some within their expected group of signees if they’d wait to sign until next year’s period, per the report. The Dodgers already lost one high-profile prospect from their class to the Pirates.

It should be noted that while Sasaki cannot formally sign a contract prior to Jan. 15 and must sign by Jan. 23 (the final date in his 45-day posting window), he can agree to terms on a deal prior to either of those dates. It’s not clear of the right-hander is still traveling to meet with prospective clubs in their home locales, but in theory he could make his decision at any point now and simply sign on the dotted line when the international period opens. In that sense, it’s similar to any other free agent; it’s commonplace for an agreement to be reached, leak out to the public and only be formally announced by the team a few days later after the physical has been completed.

As a reminder of how this will all work, Major League Baseball’s international amateur bonus system allows clubs to sign players from Latin America, Asia, Europe, etc. beginning at age 16. Clubs scout players — particularly those in Latin America — for years ahead of time, often agreeing to handshake deals more than a year (sometimes two or three years) in advance. The league hard-caps each team’s bonus pool. Clubs are permitted to trade for up to 60% of the value of their initial bonus pools.

This year’s bonus pools range from $5.146MM (Dodgers, Giants) to $7.555MM (Reds, Tigers, Marlins, Twins, Brewers, A’s, Mariners, Rays). In theory, one of those eight clubs with the maximum pool size could trade to balloon their pool to $12.088MM. There’s no indication any of those clubs will do so, however.

International “amateur” players can only sign a minor league deal for a bonus that fits within a team’s allotted pool space (plus any additional space acquired via trade). Because of the stringent criteria to be classified a “professional” rather than an “amateur,” Sasaki will fall into the amateur bucket. MLB stipulates that a player must be at least 25 years of age and have six or more seasons of experience in a prominent foreign professional league (e.g. Nippon Professional Baseball, Korea Baseball Organization, Mexican League, Chinese Professional Baseball League, Cuban National Series, etc.). Had Sasaki waited two years, he might’ve been in line for the type of contract received by Yoshinobu Yamamoto (13 years, $325MM). Instead, he’ll sign a minor league deal with a bonus valued south (likely well south) of that $12.088MM maximum.

Alek Manoah Targeting August Return To Blue Jays

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After a brutal 2023 season, right-hander Alek Manoah returned to the Blue Jays’ rotation in early May with the hope of reestablishing himself as one of the game’s top young arms. Unfortunately, that goal didn’t even last a month as Manoah was sidelined after just five starts and wound up undergoing Tommy John surgery in early June. The righty’s timetable for return to the mound has been unclear since then, but recently Manoah himself provided an update to Mike Wilner of the Toronto Star as part of an interview for the Star’s “Deep Left Field” baseball podcast. During the interview, Manoah identified August as his target for a return to action.

“…to go be a deadline acquisition for the Toronto Blue Jays and just help as much as I can over the final two months of the season, that’s what I’m striving for,” Manoah said on the podcast. “I’m striving to get bullpens in March, to get to live BPs in June, and then get some rehabs going and hopefully be in a position to help this team down the stretch.”

That timeline would have Manoah returning to the mound in Toronto roughly fourteen months after first going under the knife. That’s hardly an atypical timeline for a pitcher in the right-hander’s situation given that rehabbing Tommy John surgery usually takes between 12 and 18 months, though Manoah acknowledged that “bumps in the road” down the line could complicate or delay the ideal timetable he laid out.

Of course, even a healthy return to the mound in early August would come with questions. The right-hander was last healthy and effective back in 2022, when he posted a sterling 2.24 ERA in 196 2/3 innings of work for the Jays en route to a third-place finish in AL Cy Young award voting and the first All-Star appearance of his career. That fantastic performance seemed to indicate that Manoah was ticketed for long-term success at the front of Toronto’s rotation, but the 2023 season threw that plan off the rails as he struggled to a 5.87 ERA with a 6.01 FIP in 19 starts and spent time in the minor leagues due to his poor performance.

Manoah’s return to the Jays’ rotation last May was something of a mixed bag. His 3.70 ERA across five starts was solid enough, while his 25.2% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were essentially in line with his numbers from 2021 and ’22. With that being said, Manoah was getting crushed when batters did make contact with his pitches. He surrendered five homers in just 24 1/3 innings of work last year and posted a ghastly 10.8% barrel rate. That came in a sample size of just 65 batted balls, of course, and given the fact that Manoah underwent UCL surgery shortly thereafter it’s fair to question how indicative that performance will be of his abilities when he returns to the mound. It’s certainly far from impossible to imagine Manoah, still just 27, re-establishing himself as a quality rotation piece once he’s put rehab behind him and resumed pitching.

In the meantime, however, the Jays are constructing their 2025 rotation without expecting him to be a major part of the equation. As things stand, veterans Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Chris Bassitt stand as a trio of proven arms while Bowden Francis flashed high-end results late in the 2024 season. Yariel Rodríguez currently figures to round out the group with Jake Bloss available as a depth option at Triple-A. Right-hander Jeff Hoffman signed with the club on a three-year deal that guarantees him $33MM late last week, but despite speculation throughout the winter he could look to pitch out of the rotation with his next club the Jays have indicated they’ll be using him in the bullpen.

It’s a decent rotation mix even without Hoffman involved, but there’s clearly room for improvement. Gausman endured the worst season he’s had since breaking out during the 2020 campaign last year; he pitched to a 3.82 ERA (105 ERA+) with 21.4% strikeout rate that was down nearly ten points from the year prior. Berrios pitched to mid-rotation results last year but also had troubling peripherals, including a 19.5% strikeout rate and a 4.72 FIP. Both of those numbers suggest Berrios may profile more as a back-of-the-rotation arm if he can’t bounce back going forward, and that’s likely where Bassitt fits best as well after he posted a below-average 4.16 ERA in his age-35 season last year.

Given all the questions surrounding a rotation that is poised to enter 2025 hoping for Gausman to rebound and Francis to prove he’s capable of pitching at an above-average level over the course of a full season as a starter, it’s hardly a surprise that the club has been connected to a number of starters in free agency this winter. Both Corbin Burnes and Max Fried already landed elsewhere despite involvement from Toronto in both markets, but Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta remain available as potential upgrades the club has reported interest in.

Blue Jays Sign Jeff Hoffman

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The Blue Jays made a significant bullpen upgrade on Friday evening, announcing a three-year deal with Jeff Hoffman that guarantees $33MM. The CAA client reportedly receives a $5MM signing bonus and can earn another $6MM in incentives. He’d unlock $500K for reaching each of 60, 70, 80 and 90 innings pitched in all three seasons. He’ll make a $6MM salary next season followed by $11MM annually from 2026-27.

General manager Ross Atkins said in a statement that Hoffman “will get an opportunity to close games for us” (relayed by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). That suggests they’re planning to keep the right-hander in the late innings. Hoffman had reportedly drawn interest from teams as a starting pitcher.

Hoffman, who turned 32 on Wednesday, returns to the organization that drafted him more than a decade ago. The righty was Toronto’s first-round pick (ninth overall) out of East Carolina in 2014. He was a high-profile starting pitching prospect who landed among Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects in each of his first three professional seasons. Hoffman didn’t spend long in the Toronto system. One year after the draft, the Jays dealt him to the Rockies as part of the return in the Troy Tulowitzki deadline blockbuster.

The early portion of Hoffman’s major league career was a struggle. Like many young pitchers, he had a tough time at Coors Field. Hoffman had an earned run average north of 6.00 over parts of five seasons with the Rox. Colorado swapped him to the Reds for Robert Stephenson in advance of the 2021 season. Stephenson and Hoffman were each former top prospects whose careers would take off after a move to the bullpen.

For Hoffman, that didn’t materialize right away. He had a pair of decent but unspectacular seasons in Cincinnati, combining for a 4.28 ERA over 66 appearances. He signed with the Phillies on a minor league deal coming out of Spring Training in 2023. Hoffman had the best two seasons of his career in Philadelphia. He made the big league roster in early May of the first season and turned in 52 1/3 innings of 2.41 ERA ball.

That performance made him a key piece of Rob Thomson’s leverage group heading into 2024. Hoffman posted even better numbers during his second season at Citizens Bank Park. He worked 66 1/3 innings with a 2.17 ERA while striking out more than a third of opposing hitters. Over his tenure with the Phils, Hoffman turned in a 2.28 earned run average with a 33.4% strikeout percentage. He kept his walks to a modest 7.4% clip and held opponents to a .180/.249/.295 slash in 473 plate appearances.

Of the 97 relievers who have logged 100+ innings over the past two seasons, only five (Emmanuel Clase, Tanner Scott, Ryan Helsley, Kirby Yates and Tyler Holton) have a lower ERA. Hoffman also ranks sixth in strikeout rate, trailing Aroldis Chapman, Josh Hader, Fernando Cruz, Kirby Yates, and A.J. Puk. He is in the top 10 in swinging strike percentage. The 6’5″ hurler has the stuff to match those results. His fastball sits around 97 MPH on average. Hoffman mixes four pitches and has overpowered hitters with both the heater and his upper-80s slider.

That production earned him a contract commensurate with what most top setup arms have made in recent offseasons. It’s an exact match for what Stephenson, last winter’s breakout free agent reliever, earned from the Angels. Joe Jiménez, Reynaldo López, Rafael Montero, Taylor Rogers and Clay Holmes all landed three-year deals that guaranteed between $26MM and $38MM. Jordan Hicks signed for $11MM annually but was able to secure a fourth year from the Giants as he entered his age-27 season.

MLBTR ranked Hoffman as the #2 free agent reliever behind Scott. We predicted a four-year, $44MM deal. While the AAV was accurate, teams evidently were unwilling to go to four years at that salary for what would be his age 32-35 seasons. Hoffman was reportedly hoping to land a deal similar to the three years and $38MM that Holmes received from the Mets. He comes up a little bit shy of that, at least in part because New York is going to give Holmes an opportunity to move to the rotation.

Robert Murray of FanSided reported this evening that Hoffman had been set to sign with the Orioles on a three-year, $40MM contract before Baltimore took issue with his throwing shoulder during the physical examination. Teams have different standards for the injury risk that they’re willing to tolerate. Baltimore has a reputation for being particularly attentive to the physical. Hoffman has not spent any time on the injured list over the last two years. He missed a good portion of the second half of 2022 because of a forearm issue. He did miss around two months due to a shoulder impingement early in the ’21 season as a member of the Reds.

The signing is perhaps some evidence of a thaw in what has been a slow-moving reliever market. It’s the second straight day in which one of the top bullpen arms has come off the board, as Baltimore agreed to a $10MM deal with Andrew Kittredge last night (after pulling out of the agreement with Hoffman). Scott remains unsigned and should land the most significant reliever contract of the offseason by a decent margin. Carlos Estévez, Yates and David Robertson are among the next group of back-end arms.

It’s Toronto’s biggest free agent move of the offseason. Their only previous signing had been a two-year, $15MM deal to bring Yimi García back to the organization. They also took on nearly $100MM and acquired middle reliever Nick Sandlin in the Andrés Giménez trade. The Jays had the worst bullpen in the American League last season. They non-tendered Jordan Romano after an injury-plagued season for their former All-Star closer. (Romano signed with Philadelphia as a key replacement for Hoffman.) The trio of new bullpen pickups join holdovers Erik Swanson and Chad Green as potential late-inning options for John Schneider.

According to RosterResource, Toronto’s luxury tax number is up to roughly $239MM. That puts them within a few million of the $241MM base threshold. The Jays narrowly dipped below the CBT line last season. They’d need to be willing to exceed that marker if they’re going to make a notable offensive upgrade beyond Giménez. The outfield is the biggest issue on paper, while the Jays could also look to solidify a third base position that currently features a handful of young, unproven infielders.

Jon Morosi of the MLB Network first reported that the Jays and Hoffman were discussing a multi-year deal. FanSided’s Robert Murray reported the $6MM in bonuses, which Kiley McDaniel of ESPN specified. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the signing bonus, while The Associated Press had the salary structure.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Blue Jays Designate Brett de Geus For Assignment

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The Blue Jays designated reliever Brett de Geus for assignment, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. Toronto needed to create a 40-man roster spot after signing Jeff Hoffman this evening.

de Geus landed with the Jays on a late-season waiver claim from Miami. The 27-year-old righty made two appearances and allowed four runs across 2 1/3 innings. de Geus had made brief appearances with the Mariners and Marlins earlier in the year. He concluded the season with 11 1/3 frames while allowing 10 runs (nine earned). He struck out seven and issued four walks.

That marked de Geus’ first MLB action since his 2021 rookie year. He tossed 50 innings as a Rule 5 pick that season but allowed more than seven earned runs per nine. de Geus owns a 7.48 earned run average across 61 1/3 big league innings. He combined for a 5.31 ERA through 39 Triple-A innings last season. He posted a well below-average 15.6% strikeout rate against a decent 8.1% walk percentage.

Toronto is likely to place de Geus on waivers within the next few days. He has a previous career outright, which means he’d be able to elect minor league free agency if he goes unclaimed.

Orioles Backed Out Of Agreement With Jeff Hoffman After Flagged Physical

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Jeff Hoffman signed a three-year, $33MM contract with the Blue Jays this evening. The righty nearly landed with a division rival. Robert Murray of FanSided reports that Hoffman and the Orioles had agreed to terms on a three-year, $40MM contract earlier this week. According to Murray, Baltimore pulled out of the deal after the physical revealed something related to his throwing shoulder that concerned the organization. Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet write that Baltimore continued to pursue Hoffman and made him a revised offer after backing out of the initial terms, but the All-Star reliever turned his attention elsewhere.

Teams have different standards for the injury risk that they’re willing to tolerate on prospective signings or trade acquisitions. The Orioles have a reputation for being particularly attentive to the physical. The O’s backed out of agreements with Grant Balfour and Tyler Colvin, respectively, in 2013 and ’14. They restructured their agreement with Yovani Gallardo during the 2015-16 offseason because of concerns about his shoulder. Those situations all predated the hiring of general manager Mike Elias and the franchise’s sale to owner David Rubenstein. This could certainly be coincidental.

Hoffman has not spent any time on the injured list over the last two years. He missed a good portion of the second half of 2022 because of a forearm issue. Hoffman did miss around two months in 2021 due to a shoulder impingement. He was sidelined between May 27 and July 21 that season. The injury did not require surgery.

Other teams have failed free agent physicals, of course. The most famous instance was when the Giants and Mets each pulled out of agreements with Carlos Correa because of concerns about his ankle during the 2021-22 offseason. The Yankees reportedly pulled out of a deadline trade to acquire Jack Flaherty from the Tigers last summer because of concerns about his back. That’s not a direct parallel, as the Yanks had issues with Flaherty’s medical records rather than conducting their own physical.

The Flaherty situation illustrates that different clubs’ medical departments could have diverging opinions on a player’s health. The Dodgers traded for the righty within hours of the Yankees deal falling through. (Flaherty stayed healthy for the stretch run with Los Angeles.) Hoffman’s physical wound up costing him $7MM in guaranteed money, though he can earn up to $6MM back via innings-based incentives. It’s not clear whether his agreement with Baltimore would have included any performance bonuses.

Baltimore quickly pivoted to their next bullpen target. The O’s agreed to a one-year, $10MM deal with righty Andrew Kittredge last night. He’ll join Yennier Cano, Seranthony Domínguez and Keegan Akin in front of closer Félix Bautista, who is returning from 2023 Tommy John surgery.

Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Avoid Arbitration

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The Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have agreed to a $28.5MM salary to avoid an arbitration hearing, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. This does not prevent the sides from discussing a long-term deal in advance of Guerrero’s final year of club control.

Guerrero and the Jays went to a hearing last offseason. The star first baseman proved triumphant and secured a $19.9MM salary rather than the team’s filing figure of $18.05MM. They won’t go through that process this time around. Guerrero agrees to an $8.6MM raise for what’ll be his last trip through the process. That’s a hair below the $29.6MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. He’ll nevertheless be the highest-paid player in this year’s arbitration group. Guerrero wasn’t far off joining Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto as the only players to eclipse the $30MM mark in arbitration.

The far more intriguing question is whether this will be Guerrero’s final contract with the Blue Jays. The four-time All-Star said last month that the Jays had offered him an extension in the $340MM range. Guerrero indicated that was well below his asking price, which USA Today’s Bob Nightengale has suggested is at or above $450MM. The first baseman said he was willing to continue negotiations until the start of Spring Training. He indicated he would test free agency next offseason if no deal is in place once exhibition play begins.

Guerrero finished sixth in MVP balloting last season. He raked at a .323/.396/.544 clip with 30 homers and 44 doubles. His numbers weren’t too far off what he’d produced when he was runner-up behind Ohtani in MVP voting in 2021. He’s on track to get to free agency at age 27, where he and Kyle Tucker would headline the class.

Latest On Blue Jays’ Offseason Pursuits

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The Blue Jays have been surprisingly quiet in free agency thus far. Toronto has been tied to essentially every player of note, but their only signing was a two-year deal for middle reliever Yimi García. The Jays have pulled off one major trade acquisition, taking on the final five years and nearly $100MM on the Andrés Giménez contract from the Guardians.

Based on the lack of free agent activity, the Jays seem to be one of the likeliest teams to land one of the few remaining stars on the open market. However, a report from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet casts some doubt on that possibility. Davidi writes that the Jays “are believed to be on the periphery” of the markets for Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso. Toronto has reportedly made an offer to Anthony Santander, yet Davidi indicates that the Jays do not look like the current favorite to land the former Orioles slugger.

Bregman, Alonso and Santander are the remaining unsigned star-caliber hitters. Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim are viable regulars but clearly below the preceding trio in terms of offensive impact and earning potential. Giménez stabilizes second base but isn’t a huge threat at the plate. If the Jays come up empty on each of Bregman, Santander and Alonso, they’d be left with trade possibilities to spark a middling offense. Davidi writes that Toronto is actively exploring the trade market but does not identify any specific targets for the team.

[Related: Do The Blue Jays Need More Help On Offense Or In The Rotation?]

The Jays were linked to Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried before they inked significant deals earlier in the winter. They lost the bidding to the Mets on Soto. Burnes signed with the Diamondbacks, at least partially because of geographic ties to Arizona. Davidi writes that the Jays were simply not comfortable with the eventual eight-year, $218MM deal that Fried secured from the Yankees. He indicates that Toronto never made an offer once they realized that the bidding was well beyond where they were willing to go.

Toronto narrowly dipped below the luxury tax threshold late last season. They have around $228MM in luxury tax commitments for this year, according to RosterResource. That puts them $13MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. Any kind of free agent splash would push them into tax territory. Davidi indicates that while the Jays aren’t opposed to going into CBT range, they could decide to keep their tax number below $241MM if they don’t land any marquee targets.

An uncertain direction for the organization has hung over the offseason. Toronto has resisted a rebuild, but they’ve only made a few additions to a team that went 74-88. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are one season from free agency. There has never been much of an indication that they’ll extend Bichette. They’ve made an effort to keep Guerrero but seem far apart with the star first baseman.

Guerrero said last month that the team had offered him around $340MM. The four-time All-Star said that wasn’t close to his asking price and indicated that he’d end extension talks if there’s no deal in place by the beginning of Spring Training. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported this week that Guerrero was looking for a deal of at least $450MM. Needless to say, that’s a big gap to bridge. That’d be particularly true if Guerrero holds firm to the Spring Training cutoff, though it’s not uncommon for players to continue negotiations past self-imposed deadlines if they feel progress is being made.

Davidi writes that the $340MM offer which the Jays made is believed to have predated Soto’s eye-popping $765MM contract. That may simply be an outlier, but it’s natural that Guerrero — arguably the top free agent in next year’s class — would aim high after Soto shattered all contractual precedents. Guerrero is set for what’ll be the highest salary for any arbitration-eligible player this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him at $29.6MM. Teams and players will exchange filing figures tomorrow afternoon. That could spur the Jays and Guerrero to work on a one-year settlement to avoid going to a hearing. That would not prevent them from continuing discussions on a long-term deal at a later date.

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