Cardinals Acquire T.J. Zeuch From Blue Jays
The Cardinals have reportedly acquired right-hander T.J. Zeuch from the Blue Jays, per Robert Murray of FanSided (via Twitter). Zeuch was recently designated for assignment. The Blue Jays will receive cash considerations, and Zeuch will be assigned to Triple-A, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter).
St. Louis has been extremely active in the waiver market, already snagging T.J. McFarland and Justin Miller from the Nationals. Zeuch, however, brings the ability to log innings in the rotation. That fits a particular need for the Cardinals, who currently have four starters on the injured list (Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Carlos Martinez, Dakota Hudson).
He’s been fairly reliable, for what he provides. Basically, Zeuch offers innings and groundballs. Zeuch figured to be a popular target on the waiver wire given his relatively reliable production, pedigree as a former first-round draft pick, and contract, as he not only is pre-arb, but also comes with two options remaining. The Cardinals also had a 40-man roster spot open after losing Roel Ramirez off waivers to the Mets.
Rangers Exploring Contract Extension With Joey Gallo
Joey Gallo‘s name has been at the forefront of multiple trade rumors for months, though Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports that the Rangers “have become more aggressive” in their pursuit of a possible contract extension with the outfielder. Gallo has one year of arbitration remaining before being eligible for free agency following the 2022 campaign. It isn’t known whether Texas has actually made Gallo an offer, as agent Scott Boras declined to comment on the subject yesterday.
It isn’t unusual for teams to make what might essentially be a last-ditch effort at a long-term deal prior to the deadline. (Just earlier this week, Starling Marte and the Marlins held negotiations that didn’t end up panning out, so Marte is now looking like a prime candidate to be dealt prior to the July 30th deadline.) Of course, it also isn’t common for these midseason talks to actually result in a new contract. While Gallo has expressed his fondness for remaining with the Rangers, striking a new deal in the midst of the season would certainly count as a surprise for multiple factors — perhaps chief amongst them that Gallo is represented by Boras, whose clients usually end up testing the free agent market.
An extension would mean that Gallo would be putting a lot of faith in the Rangers’ front office that their current rebuild would bear fruit, as the team doesn’t look in position to contend by next season. From the Rangers’ perspective, obviously they would like to keep a player like Gallo in the fold, but his greatest value to the club at this point might be as a trade chip.
Gallo’s name has already been linked to the Yankees and Padres on the rumor mill, and Grant adds that the Blue Jays (who have been scouting Texas games over the past week) are “perhaps the Rangers’ most favored potential trade partner.” The Jays could have interest in any number of possible Rangers trade chips, and considering Toronto’s need for arms, Gallo might perhaps be lower on the Blue Jays’ radar than pitchers like Kyle Gibson or Ian Kennedy.
Mets, Phillies, Blue Jays Scouting Cubs/Diamondbacks
The Mets, Phillies, and Jays – and potentially others – have scouts at the Diamondbacks/Cubs game in Chicago today, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter).
That’s as good a place as any for deadline buyers to do their weekend shopping. Kris Bryant and Craig Kimbrel are the most notable names present, but there’s plenty of talent dotting Chicago’s roster. Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Zach Davies are the other veterans on expiring contracts, with Davies the most likely of the three to move.
The Cubs also stock affordable, veteran talent, both in the bullpen — where names like Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, and Dan Winkler could help a contender — and in the lineup, where low-cost veterans like Patrick Wisdom, Matt Duffy, and Jake Marisnick could be worth a conversation as well.
The Diamondbacks figure to be an even more fervent seller, though without the high-end talent of the Cubs. Still, Eduardo Escobar continues to be a popular name as a power bat offering defensive versatility on an expiring contract. Asdrubal Cabrera represents a knock-off edition, though the veteran has proven an effective deadline addition before, and he brings a more patient approach with an 11.7 walk rate this season.
Joakim Soria has a 4.45 ERA/3.91 FIP in 28 1/3 innings and a lengthy track record of success. The 14-year veteran is making just $3.5MM, and he, too, will be a free agent at year’s end. He has six saves and 229 for his career, so any acquiring team can rest assured that he’ll keep his composure, if nothing else. The Mets, Phillies, and Blue Jays all need bullpen help and could turn to Soria if Kimbrel proves too rich.
The rest of the Dbacks’ bullpen consists mostly of castoffs or unproven youngsters. Bespectacled vet Tyler Clippard won’t be cowed by the moment, but he’s only recently off the 60-day injured list and has just one appearance on the season. Former Brewers and Rays right-hander Jake Faria is having a decent season — 4.19 ERA, 19 1/3 innings — and would probably come cheap.
Noe Ramirez is worth a look. The 31-year-old sports a 3.31 ERA/3.72 FIP in 16 1/3 innings, but he’s long been undervalued because of pretty severe splits. He has a 3.94 career xFIP and 20.4 percent K-BB% against same-handed hitters, versus a 5.04 xFIP and 9.4 K-BB% against lefties for his career. Deployed judiciously, Ramirez can absolutely add value to a contender.
Merrill Kelly and Caleb Smith could be targeted as back-end rotation upgrades, with Kelly having the better season of the two. Kelly has posted 2.0 fWAR in 20 starts covering 117 innings. He has a 4.46 ERA/3.88 FIP with a 46.2 percent groundball rate, 20.3 percent strikeout rate, and solid 5.5 percent walk rate. He’s also affordable at $4.25MM this year and controllable with a $5.25MM club option for next year.
Kelly will take the mound today. He’s generating “a ton of interest on the trade market,” per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).
Smith is an extreme flyball pitcher controllable through 2023. With a 27.1 percent groundball rate for his career, he’s always going to be homer prone, but he’s nevertheless managed a palatable 4.38 ERA/4.64 FIP in 78 innings. Smith might be a better bet for a fringey contender looking towards the future, as his value lies at least as much in his controllability as it does his present ability to pitch in the back-end of a playoff rotation.
Royals Acquire Joel Payamps
The Royals have acquired reliever Joel Payamps from the Blue Jays in exchange for cash considerations, according to announcements from both teams. He has been optioned to Triple-A Omaha. Kansas City had a vacancy on the 40-man roster, so no additional move was necessary.
Toronto somewhat surprisingly designated Payamps for assignment last weekend. The righty has had a nice season, pitching to a 2.70 ERA/4.59 SIERA across 30 innings of relief. Payamps has only struck out 18.5% of batters faced (the league average for relievers is 24.5%), but he’s generated swinging strikes on a decent 11.6% of his offerings. Payamps has thrown strikes at an average rate and has thus far been excellent at avoiding damaging contact. The 27-year-old ranks in the 75th percentile or better in terms of suppressing opponents’ barrel rate, hard contact rate and average exit velocity, per Statcast.
Payamps is in his final minor league option year, meaning the Royals can shuttle him back-and-forth between Kansas City and Omaha for the remainder of this season. If he sticks on the 40-man roster over the winter, he’ll need to break camp on the active roster in 2022 or else again be offered around the league.
Blue Jays Designate T.J. Zeuch For Assignment
The Blue Jays announced they’ve reinstated catcher Alejandro Kirk from the 60-day injured list and optioned him to Triple-A Buffalo. To clear space on the 40-man roster, Toronto designated right-hander T.J. Zeuch for assignment.
The move might bring an end to Zeuch’s tenure with the Jays, who selected him in the first round of the 2016 draft. The big righty has made thirteen appearances (seven starts) with Toronto over the past three seasons, working to a 4.59 ERA across 49 innings. Zeuch has induced grounders on over half the balls put in play against him, but he’s struggled to miss bats at the big league level. The 25-year-old has only managed a 14.1% strikeout rate, while walking an elevated 10.9% of opponents.
Zeuch has spent the bulk of the year at Triple-A, posting a 4.03 ERA in 58 innings. His production there isn’t all that dissimilar from what he’s managed in the majors. Zeuch has racked up grounders (50.5%) but hasn’t struck out many batters (16.6%). To his credit, the 25-year-old has been better at throwing strikes in Triple-A, doling out free passes to just 5.1% of batters faced.
The Jays will have a week to trade Zeuch or expose him to waivers. It wouldn’t at all be surprising to see another club acquire him in the coming days. Zeuch has a strong minor league track record, and he’s shown the ability to carry his groundball tendencies over to the highest level. He also comes with an additional option year beyond this season. Any club that acquires Zeuch could keep him in the high minors through the end of 2022 so long as he sticks on the 40-man roster.
Kirk, one of baseball’s top catching prospects, has been out since early May with a left hip flexor strain. He’s hit very well in limited big league time to date, but the Jays will stick with the more experienced duo of Reese McGuire and Danny Jansen behind the plate for now.
Blue Jays Select Breyvic Valera
The Blue Jays announced they’ve selected the contract of infielder Breyvic Valera. Lefty Nick Allgeyer was designated for assignment to open 40-man roster space.
Valera will be making his first major league appearance since 2019. He tallied 138 plate appearances between 2017-19 with five different clubs, compiling a .223/.294/.298 line with one home run. Valera missed all of last season when the pandemic prevented him from being able to leave his native Venezuela to report to the team. The Jays passed him through waivers this spring and he’s spent the year at Triple-A, hitting a robust .313/.406/.460 with more walks than strikeouts over 180 trips to the plate.
Allgeyer got his first big league call in May, working a scoreless inning of relief. He’s otherwise spent the campaign at Triple-A. Across eleven appearances (six starts), the 25-year-old has tossed 45 1/3 innings of 4.37 ERA ball. While Allgeyer has struck out opposing hitters at a decent 23% clip, he’s also issued walks to an alarming 12.9% of batters faced.
The Jays will have a week to trade Allgeyer or expose him to waivers. He’s never been a premium prospect, but he has a generally solid minor league resume and still has a pair of option years remaining beyond this season. That could intrigue another team with room to stash Allgeyer on the back on the 40-man roster.
Blue Jays Designate Joel Payamps For Assignment
Before this evening’s game against the Rangers, the Blue Jays designated reliever Joel Payamps for assignment. The move cleared roster space for the reinstatement of fellow bullpen arm Ryan Borucki from the 60-day injured list.
Payamps’ designation comes as a bit of a surprise, as the righty has worked to a 2.70 ERA across 30 innings this season. That’s the second-best mark of the seven Jays’ relievers who have tossed 20+ frames this year. Payamps’ fielding independent metrics don’t quite support that level of run prevention. His 18.5% strikeout rate is well below the 24.5% league average for relievers, while his 9.9% walk percentage is fine but unspectacular.
That said, Payamps has generated swinging strikes at a fine 11.6% clip, so it’s fair to assume he could strike out a few more batters moving forward. He’s also been one of the game’s best pitchers at avoiding hard contact, and he can be optioned for the remainder of the season. Between his performance and roster flexibility, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Payamps drew interest from other clubs via trade or waiver claim. Toronto will have a week to trade him or expose him to the wire.
Borucki has been out since early May with a flexor strain in his forearm. Before going down with injury, the southpaw pitched to a 4.05 ERA/3.25 SIERA over 13 2/3 innings.
Blue Jays Receive National Interest Exemption To Return To Canada On July 30
The Blue Jays announced they’ve received a national interest exemption from the Canadian government to return in time for their July 30 homestand. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (Twitter link) reported the news shortly before the formal announcement.
The Jays will host the Royals in the Rogers Centre two weeks from now in the first game at their home ballpark in nearly two full calendar years. Border closures resulting from COVID-19 have kept the Jays from returning home in either of the past two seasons. They played the abbreviated 2020 campaign in Buffalo, the home of their Triple-A affiliate. They began this season hosting games at their Spring Training complex in Dunedin before relocating to Buffalo at the beginning of June.
July 30 will mark one of the more momentous dates in recent Jays’ history. After their three-game set against the Royals that weekend, Toronto will host series against the Indians, Red Sox and Angels through mid-August. Their final “homestand” in Buffalo — this weekend against the Rangers and early next week with the Red Sox — commences tonight before a seven-game road trip.
It remains to be seen whether the plan will require some sort of “bubble” format for players on the Jays and visiting clubs who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19. It stands to reason more details will become clear upon a formal announcement of approval from the Canadian government.
Blue Jays Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Gunnar Hoglund
The Blue Jays have agreed to terms with first-round pick Gunnar Hoglund, reports Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo (via Twitter). The former Ole Miss righty will receive a $3,247,500 bonus that clocks in about $111K south of his slot value at No. 19 overall. Hoglund is represented by Nate Heisler of Rep 1 Baseball.
That slightly under-slot price point is likely due in large part to the fact that Hoglund underwent Tommy John surgery about two months before the draft. Prior to that elbow injury, Hoglund was regarded as one of the top college arms on the board and considered a potential top 10 pick. While he’ll miss the remainder of the 2021 season and won’t be able to begin pitching for a Jays affiliate until sometime next summer, at the earliest, Hoglund nevertheless adds a high-profile arm to an already strong Jays system.
Hoglund, 21, pitched 62 2/3 innings with the Rebels in 2021 before sustaining the elbow injury that necessitated his surgery. In that time, he pitched to a 2.87 ERA while striking out 38.9 percent of his opponents against a 6.8 percent walk rate. Dating back to the shortened 2020 season, in which he tossed 23 1/3 frames, Hoglund carries a 2.41 ERA with a sensational 133-to-21 K/BB ratio in 86 total innings.
Even with that injury, Hoglund landed 14th on FanGraphs‘ final draft rankings, 19th at Baseball America, 20th at ESPN, 22nd at MLB.com and 30th at The Athletic. Scouting reports on Hoglund credited him with the best command in the draft and a plus slider. The Athletic’s Keith Law noted that Hoglund’s ceiling might not be as high as that of the draft’s top college arms (Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker), but the consensus was there’s a “high probability that he’d at least develop into a fourth starter.” ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel adds that Hoglund was “locked in” as a top 10 pick prior to his elbow injury.
MLBTR Poll: Most Dangerous Second Half Teams
With the unofficial second half of the season set to kick off tomorrow night, it’s worth taking a moment to look at the current standings. If the season were to end today, the American League postseason field would consist of the White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays and A’s. The National League entrants would be the Giants, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Padres.
In all likelihood, though, that field will change a bit over the coming months. According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the probability of all ten current would-be playoff teams reaching the postseason is just 14.9%. With that in mind, we’ll turn it over to the MLBTR readership to opine on which teams stand the best chance of making a run and unseating a member of the postseason picture.
For simplicity’s sake, we’ll exclude any team with postseason odds below 3%. That rules out the Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Pirates, Rockies and Diamondbacks.
American League
Yankees (46-43, playoff chances: 40.4%)
It has been a disappointing season to date for a Yankees team that entered the year with World Series aspirations. The lineup, one of the league’s best on paper, has been thoroughly average to this point. The rotation has been similarly middle-of-the-pack, although that was a bit more foreseeable. The bullpen was one of the league’s best early but has hit a skid recently. With all the talent on the roster, the Yankees feel like they should be better, but their +1 run differential reinforces that they’ve played at a merely OK level so far.
Blue Jays (45-42, playoff chances: 34.5%)
The Jays have had an elite offense all year. They had four All-Star position players, three of whom started for the American League. They’re among the top 5 teams in runs scored and wRC+. The pitching has been less impressive, although the rotation and bullpen are both among the top 15 units in ERA. The Jays have had some ill-timed relief issues, though. A 6-10 record in one-run games (including a 2-5 mark in extra innings) has them just three games over .500 despite the AL’s fourth-best run differential.
Angels (45-44, playoff chances: 15.1%)
There’s no doubting the Angels’ high-end position player talent. Getting Mike Trout back to join Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh and Anthony Rendon will make them one of the more fearsome middle-of-the-order groupings. The ever-persistent question is on the pitching staff. Angels starters rank just 25th leaguewide with a 5.04 ERA, and the relief corps hasn’t been much better. The defense hasn’t done the pitchers many favors. Despite the quality lineup, the Angels have been outscored by 26 runs.
Indians (45-42, playoff chances: 6.6%)
The Indians hung around the AL Central for quite a while despite an underwhelming offense. A strong bullpen and a trio of quality starting pitchers kept the team in games, but Cleveland lost each of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to the injured list. Plesac’s back, but the team has predictably sputtered without their top pitchers. They’re still only 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but they’ll have to turn things around against a tough schedule coming out of the Break.
Mariners (48-43, playoff chances: 3%)
Seattle’s offense has been a weak point this season. Only the Rockies have a lower team wRC+, although the M’s have hit well enough with runners in scoring position to plate runs at a near-average rate. Both the rotation and bullpen have higher-than-average ERA’s, and the Mariners -50 run differential is the worst among plausible contenders. The projections are highly skeptical they can keep up that kind of high wire act (hence the low odds), but those wins can’t be taken away and the Mariners enter the second half closer to the playoffs than anyone else in the AL discussion.
Which American League Team Is Most Likely To Make The Playoffs In 2021?
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Blue Jays 48% (8,909)
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Yankees 24% (4,413)
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Angels 12% (2,177)
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Mariners 8% (1,571)
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Indians 8% (1,570)
Total votes: 18,640
(poll link for app users)
National League
Reds (48-42, playoff chances: 22.2%)
The Reds have been the National League’s analogue of the Blue Jays. The lineup has been good, ranking sixth in wRC+ and eleventh in runs. The rotation has been solid. Bullpen issues have been Cincinnati’s undoing, as Reds relievers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA. The Reds are 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race and four back in the NL Central and were playing well leading up to the Break.
Phillies (44-44, playoff chances: 17.8%)
The Phillies lineup has a few stars, but it’s been rather top-heavy and a middle-of-the-pack unit overall. It’s the same story in the rotation, where the back end has continued to be problematic. And the bullpen has blown a league-worst 22 saves. It has been a good core surrounding by a weak enough complimentary cast to keep the team hovering around average. That’s been a common refrain in Philadelphia over the past couple seasons, but few teams can match the Phils’ top-end talent.
Braves (44-45, playoff chances: 7.5%)
One of the more disappointing teams of the first half, Atlanta entered the year as a World Series hopeful but hasn’t gotten into a groove. The lineup has been good, although the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. is certainly going to be tough to overcome. Starting pitching has been fine but unspectacular, but the bullpen — as with the Reds and Phillies — has been an issue in Atlanta. At +19, the Braves have the best run differential in the NL East, but a 2-6 record in extra-inning games has contributed to them underperforming in the standings.
Cubs (44-46, playoff chances: 4.1%)
The Cubs were in the thick of the NL Central race a few weeks ago. An 11-game losing streak knocked them well back in the standings, though. The current lineup still has some high-end talent, and the bullpen has been great this year. But the rotation has predictably proven an issue, and it seems likely the front office will move some players off the big league roster in the coming weeks.
Which National League Team Is Most Likely To Make The Playoffs In 2021?
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Reds 56% (11,382)
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Phillies 20% (4,066)
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Braves 18% (3,710)
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Cubs 6% (1,211)
Total votes: 20,369
(poll link for app users)