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Latest On Dexter Fowler’s Market

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The Giants, Cardinals and Blue Jays are all believed to be interested in free agent outfielder Dexter Fowler, per Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, who hears that Fowler’s camp is of the mind that they can land a multi-year deal that will pay the switch-hitter $18MM on an annual basis (Twitter link).

[Related: Dexter Fowler’s Free Agent Profile]

Any of the three listed clubs make perfect sense as a landing spot for Fowler. The Giants saw Angel Pagan hit free agency and have somewhat of a vacancy in left field. Beyond that, they could see a significant amount of money come off the books following the 2017 season. Matt Cain’s ill-fated contract extension will come to a close at the end of next year’s campaign, and if he repeats the form he displayed in 2016, Johnny Cueto figures to opt out of the remaining four years and $88MM on his contract. Infielder Eduardo Nunez, too, will be a free agent at season’s end.

As for the Cardinals, they’ve been linked to Fowler for most of the offseason due to the potential void they face in the outfield. Signing Fowler would allow Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty to flank Fowler in the outfield. While many are quick to point out that Fowler isn’t necessarily a defensive upgrade over Grichuk in center — improved glovework is said to be a priority for GM John Mozeliak — an outfield alignment of Grichuk, Fowler and Piscotty would be superior to last year’s mix of Matt Holliday, Brandon Moss, Grichuk and Piscotty.

As for the Blue Jays, they’ve previously been linked to Fowler on more than one occasion but also represent an easy on-paper fit. Toronto’s primary corner outfielders from the 2016 season, Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders, are both free agents. Fowler would represent a defensive upgrade while providing the Jays with lineup balance and speed — two elements that GM Ross Atkins has gone on record to call desirable this offseason (when speaking generally and not specifically of Fowler). Signing in Toronto would surely require Fowler to shift to an outfield corner, as Kevin Pillar is arguably the game’s best defensive player, but Fowler’s reported talks with the Orioles last offseason potentially signaled a willingness to do just that. His openness to an outfield corner this winter hasn’t been stated to this point, but he’d certainly widen his market if he were comfortable shifting off of center field.

An $18MM average annual value represents a lofty goal for Fowler, who one year ago languished in free agency for nearly the entire offseason as teams were reluctant to part with a draft pick in order to sign him. Multiple reports indicated that he agreed to a three-year deal with the Orioles in February, but that deal was either never agreed to or never finalized, as Fowler wound up back with the Cubs on a more modest one-year deal worth $13MM. The decision represented a show of faith in Fowler’s talent and somewhat of a gamble from both the player and his agents at Excel Sports, but Fowler’s terrific 2016 season made the decision look wise; in 551 plate appearances with the Cubs, Fowler batted .276/.393/.447 with 13 homers and 13 stolen bases in addition to vastly better defensive and baserunning contributions.

It’s also worth noting that an $18MM annual value can mean a variety of different things, as contract length is often a larger deterrent than AAV for teams when signing players to a long-term pact. An $18MM AAV over five years would represent a massive commitment to Fowler and seems decidedly unlikely, but an $18MM AAV over a four-year term would line Fowler up for the same payday that Alex Gordon scored from the Royals last winter. That outcome seems more plausible, depending on the level of interest in Fowler, but the market for his services does seem to be more robust this year than last.

It’s probably fair to rule out the Cubs as a candidate to make a big splash for Fowler given their signing of Jon Jay and the glut of outfielders up and down the rest of their roster, but plenty of other teams make sense. In addition to the three listed by Heyman, the Mariners, Rangers, Phillies, Dodgers, Nationals, Indians and Orioles (if that bridge isn’t burned) are all logical suitors, though that list is speculative on my behalf.

Blue Jays Still In On Edwin Encarnacion

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  • The Astros continue to strive to add another bat, with the team confident it will land either Edwin Encarnacion or Carlos Beltran, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Still, the Yankees, Blue Jays, and a “couple others” remain involved on Encarnacion, Heyman tweets. All three of those teams, along with the Red Sox, are in on Beltran, Nightengale adds on Twitter.

Latest On Edwin Encarnacion’s Market

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TODAY, 9:13pm: In further comments, Kinzer says that he does not expect a deal to be completed before the Winter Meetings, though he notes that could change if the right offer hits the table. (Via Mark Berman of FOX 26; Twitter links.)

While there has been some internet chatter suggesting that there’s a deal in place with the Astros, Kinzer denies the rumors. As Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweeted, there is nothing in place with Houston. Still, Kinzer does tell Berman that the Astros are a “great fit” from Encarnacion’s perspective, and acknowledges that there is interest from the team.

6:16pm: There’s “nothing imminent” on Encarnacion, Kinzer tells MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (links to Twitter). More than one team is still involved on the veteran slugger, per his agent, with multiple offers on the table.

The Astros and Yankees are believed still to be in the hunt, Morosi adds.

YESTERDAY: Edwin Encarnacion’s free agency may not last much longer, as the slugger’s agent, Paul Kinzer, told TSN’s Rick Westhead today that his client will probably agree to a contract later this week or early next week. Kinzer told Westhead that the Blue Jays remain in the picture and have been “showing Edwin the most love,” though the agent didn’t handicap any one team’s chances of getting a deal done. According to Kinzer, three teams have told him that they’re waiting for the resolution of the collective bargaining negotiations before making a formal offer. He added that two teams have made “serious” offers to Encarnacion already.

[Related: Edwin Encarnacion’s Free Agent Profile]

One team that doesn’t appear to be in the running for Encarnacion is the Red Sox, though, as WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes that a source has informed him that Boston “probably” won’t be a finalist for Encarnacion’s imposing bat. Boston remains focused on adding a shorter-term option to fill its DH vacancy, according to Bradford.

ESPN’s Buster Olney reported earlier today that the Astros bid big on Yoenis Cespedes before he agreed to return to the Mets, and his colleague, Jerry Crasnick, added that the Astros are still a possible landing spot for Encarnacion (Twitter links). While a big bid on Cespedes doesn’t necessarily indicate that the ’Stros are willing to make a market-beating offer for Encarnacion, their willingness to make a competitive bid for a player that agreed to a $110MM deal does suggest that they can at least afford to make a legitimate play for Encarnacion.

It remains unclear which teams have made the aforementioned serious offers to Encarnacion. The Blue Jays reportedly offered Encarnacion about $80MM over four years earlier this month, but that offer seems light to constitute the “serious” adjective utilized by Kinzer, considering the agent’s previous comments implying that a five-year deal and/or a $25MM annual value both seemed reasonable. Furthermore, Kinzer tells Westhead that he hasn’t talked dollars with Blue Jays brass since that initial proposal. The Yankees have also been connected to Encarnacion on multiple occasions, and the Rangers have reportedly reached out to Kinzer as well, though the extent of Texas’ interest isn’t known at this time.

Encarnacion, like most agents, should be reasonably expected to end up with the highest bidder, but Kinzer did imply that there will be other factors at play when speaking to Westhead. “We won’t put any restrictions on any offer like years or anything,” he explained. “[Encarnacion is] going to decide where he’s comfortable. One of the things we have to look at is the big difference in the tax base between some of the teams that are interested. Plus, there’s a comfort level we need to consider.”

Latest Trade Talk Regarding Mets’ Outfielders

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Immediately following yesterday’s news that Yoenis Cespedes had agreed to re-sign with the Mets on a new four-year deal, speculation about the possibility of a Jay Bruce trade began. Reports earlier in the week had indicated that the Mets would try to trade Bruce in the event of a new Cespedes deal, but Newsday’s Marc Carig reports that Curtis Granderson is drawing more trade interest than Bruce in early talks. Per Carig, the Mets aren’t closed off entirely to the idea of moving Granderson over Bruce, but the decision will be influenced by the strength of the return they’d get in a Granderson deal. The Blue Jays are one team with interest in Granderson, according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).

Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports that the Mets’ “overwhelmingly strong” preference is to move Bruce as opposed to one of Granderson, Michael Conforto or Juan Lagares (Twitter links). While the Mets have gotten calls on all four outfielders, DiComo conveys that the Mets have “made it clear” that neither Conforto nor Lagares will be going anywhere. The Tigers made an attempt at prying Conforto away from the Mets when they asked for him in return for J.D. Martinez prior to New York’s deal with Cespedes, Carig reports in his column, but that lopsided asking price predictably didn’t gain any traction with the Mets. (The Post’s Mike Puma notes that the the Mets still consider Conforto a building block moving forward even after his rough 2016 season.)

The financial difference between Bruce and Granderson isn’t especially great, with Bruce set to earn $13MM next year to Granderson’s $15MM. However, Granderson has been a quietly productive member of the Mets since signing his four-year, $60MM pact prior to the 2013 season, hitting a combined .241/.342/.436 and averaging 25 homers per season. While neither slugger has hit lefties whatsoever in recent years, Granderson is better-equipped than Bruce to handle center field despite being six years older. It should also be noted, of course, that Bruce’s tenure with the Mets was mostly a struggle. Though he caught fire late in the year and went 12-for-25 with four homers over his final eight games, Bruce batted just .219/.294/.391 as a member of the Mets, including a .174/.252/.285 skid prior to that eight-game heater to close out the year.

Blue Jays Showing Strong Interest In Fowler, Bruce

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7:16pm: Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports that the Jays are also “showing a strong interest” in Dexter Fowler. In the event that the Jays were to sign Fowler, he’d slide over to one of the currently vacant outfield corners, as Kevin Pillar stands out as one of the game’s premier defensive players and is locked in as Toronto’s center fielder.

From my vantage point, Fowler is a vastly better fit for the Blue Jays than Bruce, as he’d provide a definitive defensive upgrade over either Bautista or Saunders in one of the outfield corners and would also add both the speed and lineup balance that Atkins has stated to be offseason priorities. The additions of both Fowler and Morales would give the Jays two switch-hitters to inject some much-needed left-handedness to a lineup that currently features right-handers Russell Martin, Devon Travis, Troy Tulowitzki, Josh Donaldson and Pillar.

Signing Fowler would require the Blue Jays to forfeit the No. 24 overall pick in the 2017 draft, though the team could recoup a compensatory pick in the event that either Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion signs elsewhere. Fowler, 31 next March, batted a robust .276/.393/.447 with 13 homers and 13 stolen bases in 551 plate appearances with the Cubs while turning in the best defensive metrics of his career in center field.

4:47pm: The Blue Jays are “among the teams making a push for Jay Bruce,” reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (on Twitter). Toronto has an obvious need for corner outfield help following the departures of Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders, and Bruce figures to be a trade candidate now that Yoenis Cespedes is reportedly in agreement with the Mets on a new four-year, $110MM contract.

[Related: Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart]

Toronto has already tried to trade for Bruce once, back in Spring Training, and was believed to be on the verge of completing a three-team trade with the Angels and Reds before the medical reports on some of the minor league talent involved in the deal caused the trade to break down. Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins has stated that he’d like to add some left-handed bats to the lineup to help balance it out, and Toronto has already succeeded to some extent by signing switch-hitting DH Kendrys Morales to a three-year deal.

Bruce, 30 in April, is fresh off his best offensive season since 2013, having batted .250/.309/.506 with 33 homers between the Reds and Mets in 2016. However, he struggled greatly for much of his time with the Mets, and while he did catch fire in the season’s final two weeks, that marks the second straight season in which Bruce performed well for most of the season before fading badly in the second half. He’s also seen his defensive ratings drop dramatically in recent years — perhaps not coincidentally after undergoing knee surgery early in 2014. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at -11 this past season, while Ultimate Zone Rating was at -9.

Bruce would give the Jays a short-term bat with plenty of pop, though, and his $13MM salary for the upcoming season is one that the Jays could certainly afford. The Mets picked up a club option on Bruce after the season due to some uncertainty surrounding whether Cespedes would return, and recent reports have indicated that he’d be marketed in the event of a Cespedes re-signing.

Blue Jays Sign Michael Ohlman, Jarrett Grube To Minors Deals

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The Blue Jays announced on Monday that they’ve signed catcher Michael Ohlman and right-hander Jarrett Grube to minor league contracts and invited the pair to Major League Spring Training.

[Related: Updated Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart]

Ohlman, 26 next month, has spent his career in the minor league systems of the Orioles and Cardinals. The former 11th-rounder reached Triple-A for the first time last season and turned in a strong performance for the Cardinals’ affiliate in Memphis, hitting .280/.333/.464 with six homers, nine doubles and a couple of triples in 186 plate appearances over the life of 54 games. Ohlman split the year between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting a combined .287/.344/.434. He’s thrown out 26 percent of runners and been about average in terms of framing pitches in the minors (per Baseball Prospectus). Baseball America rated him 30th among Cardinals farmhands last winter and wrote that while he’s large for a catcher at 6’5″, he’s improved enough behind the dish to profile as a backup if he can tap into his above-average raw power. The Jays don’t have a set answer at backup catcher next year, with A.J. Jimenez the current favorite to land that gig. Ohlman will be in the mix to compete for that role in Spring Training, though the Jays could add a more experienced option to back up Russell Martin as the winter progresses.

Grube, who turned 35 this month, has had a 13-year pro career but has reached the Majors in just one season, when he appeared in a single game for the 2014 Angels. Selected by the Rockies in the 10th round of the 2004 draft, Grube has also pitched in the minors for the Mariners and Indians in addition to a pair of indy ball stints with the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs of the Atlantic League. Grube’s overall numbers at the Triple-A level don’t immediately stand out, but he posted an excellent 2.26 ERA in 79 2/3 innings with Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate in 2015 and a 3.92 ERA in 119 1/3 innings between the Triple-A affiliates for the Indians and Mariners last season. He typically averages just under eight strikeouts per nine innings and a bit less than three walks per nine and has totaled more than 1200 innings as a professional.

Poll: Will Blue Jays Re-Sign Edwin Encarnacion?

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When the Blue Jays signed designated hitter Kendrys Morales to a three-year, $33MM contract last week, it appeared free agent Edwin Encarnacion’s illustrious tenure with the franchise was all but over. Encarnacion is coming off back-to-back campaigns in which he spent more time at DH than first base, after all, and the soon-to-be 34-year-old will likely need to continue as a bat-first option as he keeps aging.

[RELATED: Encarnacion’s Free Agent Profile]

Although having two expensive DH types on a roster isn’t ideal, the Blue Jays are nonetheless interested in re-signing Encarnacion, FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported earlier this week. General manager Ross Atkins indicated after signing Morales that he could see a “good deal” of time in the field, which has been a rare occurrence over the past couple seasons, and that would seem to open the door to the possibility of him and Encarnacion coexisting.

Edwin Encarnacion

If necessary, the Blue Jays appear prepared to adjust to having Morales and Encarnacion divvy up time between DH and first, but it’ll obviously be a moot point if they’re unable to re-sign the latter. Before Toronto locked up Morales, it made a four-year offer in the neighborhood of $80MM to Encarnacion, who unsurprisingly rejected it.  As arguably the premier hitter on the open market, Encarnacion seems like a shoo-in to exceed that dollar figure. MLBTR projects a $92MM deal for Encarnacion, though an accord worth upward of $100MM doesn’t seem out of the question with the the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Astros and some National League teams reportedly chasing him.

Encarnacion has been a spectacular hitter since his 2012 breakout, having slashed .272/.367/.544 in 3,133 plate appearances. He also ranks second in the majors in home runs (193) and third in ISO (.273) over that five-year span, and has further impressed with a 12.5 percent walk rate against a 15.1 percent strikeout mark. Encarnacion is now coming off a year in which he hit a career-high-tying 42 homers and appeared in a personal-best 160 regular-season games, but his still-excellent .263/.357/.529 slash stands as his least productive line during his half-decade run as an elite offensive weapon.

Despite his tremendous output over the past several seasons, the fact that Encarnacion’s an aging, one-dimensional player could significantly weaken his value in the coming years and make his deal an albatross down the line, as both Dave Cameron and Craig Edwards of FanGraphs wrote earlier this month. The Blue Jays’ front office is likely mindful of the risks that would accompany re-signing Encarnacion, though losing him and replacing him with the likes of Morales and first baseman Justin Smoak (and perhaps an outside acquisition) would probably damage the team’s short-term chances on the heels of back-to-back playoff seasons.

With Encarnacion having rejected a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, they’ll receive a first-round pick if he signs elsewhere, so they’re in position to walk away with a potentially useful long-term asset if the slugger departs. The question is: Will he leave Toronto?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Edwin Encarnacion

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Edwin Encarnacion delivered another big season in 2016 and even added a signature postseason moment (his walkoff homer in the Blue Jays’ wild card win over the Orioles) to his resume.  After five straight years of excellent numbers, he is well-positioned to land one of the offseason’s biggest contracts.

Strengths/Pros

Encarnacion’s signature elbow extension during his home run trot has become known around Canada as “taking the parrot for a walk,” and Polly has gotten more than her share of exercise over the last five years.  Since breaking out during the 2012 season, Encarnacion has been nothing less than one of the best hitters in baseball, batting .272/.367/.544 with 193 homers (the second-highest total in baseball in that span), 550 RBI (also second), a 146 wRC+ (seventh) and 451 runs scored (tied for eighth).  He has generated 20.2 fWAR in that stretch based almost entirely on his potent right-handed bat.  As one might expect, Encarnacion draws a large number of walks (12.5 percent since 2012).  Unlike many sluggers, though, Encarnacion isn’t especially strikeout prone, as he’s punched out in just 15.1 percent of his plate appearances dating back to that 2012 breakout.

Encarnacion’s emergence as the plate more or less coincided with his being moved off third base and into a first base/DH role, as he was able to more completely focus on hitting and no longer had to worry about his infamous glovework. (When your actual nickname is “E5,” a position change is long overdue.)  While Encarnacion posted subpar defensive metrics in his first few years at first, he has actually been a passable first baseman over the last two seasons as per the UZR/150 metric (+4.1).  Paul Kinzer, Encarnacion’s agent, believes his client has proven himself as “a solid first baseman,” and a viable option for National League teams.Edwin Encarnacion

Yoenis Cespedes is three years younger than Encarnacion and has more defensive value as a left fielder, which is why he topped MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents of the 2016-17 offseason.  Encarnacion, however, finished second on that list, a rarity for a player of his age.

Weaknesses/Cons

As Encarnacion enters his age-34 season, the most obvious question is simple: how long can he keep up his elite production?  Traditionally quite good at putting the bat on the ball, Encarnacion’s contact rate has dropped rather sharply over the last two years while his swinging strike rate has risen.  He posted the second-highest strikeout rate (19.7%) of his career last season, finishing well above his 16.2% career average.  Encarnacion’s 134 wRC+ was also his lowest in five years, though obviously that’s still an excellent number and only a borderline sign of “decline.”

A sneaky-good stolen base threat early in his career, Encarnacion has been a below-average baserunner in each of the last two seasons.  Without much speed and fringy defensive worth, Encarnacion’s value is almost entirely tied up in his bat.  Teams need to decide if they’re willing to risk giving a $20MM+ average annual value to a player who may not be worth that money even in 2017 if he takes even a small step back at the plate.

His recent UZR/150 performance aside, it’s rather hard to imagine Encarnacion suddenly becoming a reliable defender at this point in his career, especially if he doesn’t have the security of the DH spot for regular rest.  Many bat-first players gradually shift from being regular defenders to taking more and more time in the DH slot as they move into their mid-30s, so it would be rather unusual to see Encarnacion take the opposite route by signing with an NL team.

Encarnacion has undergone two wrist surgeries during his career, missed about five weeks with a quad strain in 2014 and has battled some shoulder and finger ailments.  He did play in a career-high 160 games last season, though again, that was with the help of the DH spot to give him plenty of recovery time.  An NL team would be taking a risk in counting on Encarnacion to stay both healthy and productive playing every day as a first baseman.

Personal

Encarnacion and his partner Jennifer have one child, who bears his father’s name. A native of the Dominican Republic, Encarnacion ended up attending high school in Puerto Rico, making him eligible for the draft. He was taken in the ninth round by the Rangers in 2000, ended up being dealt to the Reds in 2001, and broke into the bigs with Cincinnati in 2005.

Though he showed glimpses of his eventual power potential as a Red, Encarnacion’s lack of prowess at third base made him a liability (a move to first base wasn’t an option in Cincy thanks to Sean Casey and then Joey Votto).  The Reds dealt Encarnacion to the Blue Jays as part of a three-player package for Scott Rolen at the 2009 trade deadline, though Encarnacion was included not because Toronto wanted him, but to offset Rolen’s salary. He wasn’t an immediate hit in Toronto, either.  In fact, the Jays actually let Encarnacion go to the A’s on a waiver claim after the 2010 season, though Oakland non-tendered him a month later and the Jays re-signed the slugger.

Midway through his breakout 2012 season, Encarnacion signed a $27MM extension covering the 2013-15 seasons, plus a $10MM club option for 2016.  That extension ended up being a marvelous bargain for the Jays, though given how unsettled Encarnacion’s career had been to that point, it’s hard to fault him for wanting to lock in a healthy guaranteed deal.

Last August, a lawsuit was brought against Encarnacion, alleging that he knowingly infected a woman with two sexually-transmitted diseases.  Kinzer described the lawsuit as “completely inappropriate and meritless,” and Encarnacion’s attorneys sought to have the motion thrown out of court in October.  As Blue Jays Nation’s John Lott noted, the incident could technically fall under the purview of MLB’s domestic violence policy, though it isn’t known whether or not the league is investigating the situation.  Such lawsuits have been known to take years to be resolved or settled, so it’s hard to gauge whether or not the civil suit will have an impact on Encarnacion’s free agency.

Market

Encarnacion unsurprisingly rejected the Blue Jays’ qualifying offer, so any club that signs him will have to surrender a draft pick as compensation.  That’s a small price to pay for a suitor, as players at the top of the market rarely have to worry about the QO’s effect on their asking price.  While there are several notable first basemen and designated hitters on the open market this winter (Mark Trumbo, Carlos Beltran, Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss and perhaps even long-time teammate Jose Bautista if right field is no longer in Bautista’s future), Encarnacion is a clear cut above the pack in terms of recent production.

The Blue Jays reportedly made Encarnacion a four-year offer in the neighborhood of $80MM prior to their signing of Kendrys Morales, and even with Morales now in the fold for regular DH/first base duty, the Jays are still reportedly exploring the possibility of bringing Encarnacion back.  The two sides discussed an extension during Spring Training, though since the Jays were reportedly only willing to give Encarnacion two guaranteed years (and multiple club options), talks didn’t get very far.

The Red Sox have long been linked to Encarnacion, who fits as either a straight replacement for David Ortiz at DH or rotating between both DH and first base with Hanley Ramirez so both sluggers can stay fresh.  Boston, however, has yet to begin its rumored pursuit of Encarnacion, whether due to uncertainty about the luxury tax limit in the new collective bargaining agreement or perhaps simply out of a preference to not lock up the DH spot to an aging player on a long-term deal.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Encarnacion would wind up in a Red Sox uniform, and it’s hard to rule Boston out entirely until either the team makes an alternate move or Encarnacion puts pen to paper elsewhere.

The Yankees, Astros, Rangers (all with holes to fill at first and/or DH) have all reportedly made contact with Encarnacion.  Looking at speculative fits, the Orioles or White Sox could also offer first base/DH time-shares, teaming Encarnacion up with Chris Davis and Jose Abreu, respectively.  Chicago is probably a long shot, however, since the Sox could be a seller rather than a buyer this winter.

Looking to the National League, the Rockies and Marlins have needs at first but may not be able to meet Encarnacion’s asking price.  There actually aren’t that many NL clubs that can both afford Encarnacion and have a need at first base, so the lack of a clear fit may be a bigger issue for Encarnacion in the Senior Circuit than the lack of the DH spot.  A mystery NL team could emerge as a suitor due to a trade, injury or position switch, though for now, I’d expect Encarnacion to remain in the American League.

Expected Contract

Mid-30’s sluggers such as Victor Martinez and Nelson Cruz have managed to land pricey four-year deals in free agency, and Encarnacion should be no different, though his track record will score him significantly more guaranteed money than Cruz or V-Mart.  A five-year deal isn’t out of the question, though with the majority of Encarnacion’s interest likely to be limited to just American League teams, it’s probably safer to just project a four-year deal that will take Encarnacion through his age-37 season.  MLBTR projects Encarnacion to sign a four-year, $92MM deal.

Photo courtesy of Dan Hamilton/USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Profile: Jose Bautista

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Jose Bautista’s offseason suitors will have to weigh his disappointing 2016 season against his track record as one of baseball’s top sluggers.

Strengths/Pros

While Bautista had a down year last season, it was far from being an actually “bad” year.  Indeed, most players would be very satisfied hitting .234/.366/.452 with 22 homers and 24 doubles over 517 plate appearances.  Bautista’s 122 wRC+ indicates that he still generated 22% more runs than a league average batter, and of all free agent hitters with at least 400 PA last year, only seven topped Bautista’s mark of 122.

With a career .266 BABIP, Bautista has never received too much luck from the batted-ball gods, though it could be argued that his .255 BABIP in 2016 was particularly lacking in fortune.  Bautista had a career-high line drive rate of 18.8%, and he made hard contact on a whopping 41% of his balls in play, both of which were career-highs.  Bautista’s vaunted batting eye made him productive even when he didn’t make contact, with a 16.8% walk rate that ranked third in all of baseball (behind only Bryce Harper and Mike Trout) and an 0.84% walk-to-strikeout rate that tied him for 12th among all hitters.Jose Bautista (vertical)

Bautista was bothered by a sore hip flexor in May and then had two separate DL stints (with turf toe and a left knee sprain, respectively) that limited him to 116 games.  It could simply be that the nagging injuries and the somewhat stop-and-start nature of his season prevented Bautista from ever really getting into a groove.  Bautista is known to keep himself in good physical condition, and he played in 308 of 324 games in 2014-15.

And of course, even with his 2016 season in mind, Bautista is still easily one of the decade’s best hitters.  Since the start of the 2010 campaign, Bautista leads all hitters in home runs (249) and isolated power (.278), while ranking second in walk rate (16%), fourth in wRC+ (152) and eighth in fWAR (33.8).  If 2016 was just an aberration, then Bautista’s next team could be signing him at a relative bargain.

Weaknesses/Cons

When a player is in his mid-30s, any signs of decline have to be taken as a red flag.  For every stat indicating that Bautista was more or less his old self last year, there was another that showed significant dropoff.  He posted his lowest batting average, slugging percentage, wRC+, wOBA (weighted on-base average) and isolated power numbers since his pre-breakout 2009 season, while also posting his highest strikeout rate since 2009.  Between 2010-15, Bautista made contact 70.5% of the time when swinging at pitches outside the strike zone; that number plunged to just 60.4% in 2016.

Beyond just his issues at the plate, Bautista was only worth 1.4 fWAR (his lowest as a Blue Jay) last year in large part due to below-average baserunning and fielding metrics.  Bautista posted his second straight year of rough numbers in right field, and now has -11 Defensive Runs Scored and -11.2 UZR/150 over the last two seasons.

Jay Alou, Bautista’s agent, has said that his client is open to a move to left field or the infield, which should help Bautista’s market.  National League teams without the luxury of a DH spot, however, may be wary about signing a player entering his age-36 season without any guarantee that he can provide passable defense.  Bautista has only played 154 MLB innings as a first baseman and 410 innings as a left fielder; a return to third base would seem very unlikely at this stage of his career.

Beyond this season’s two DL trips, Bautista was also limited to 92 games in 2012 due to a bad wrist that required post-season surgery, and 118 games in 2013 due to a bruised hip that prematurely ended his season.  (In fairness to Bautista, both shutdowns were more than a little due to Toronto being miles out of the pennant race.)  He also battled a bad shoulder in 2015 that required him to receive more DH at-bats than usual, though that injury didn’t appear to impact his offensive production whatsoever.

Personal

Originally a 20th-round pick for the Pirates in the 2000 draft, Bautista’s rise from journeyman to superstar is one of baseball’s more unlikely breakout stories.  He played for five different organizations in the 2004 season (his rookie year) before settling back in Pittsburgh and posting middling numbers in semi-regular duty as a third baseman and outfielder.  Dealt to the Blue Jays in August 2008 for catcher Robinzon Diaz, Bautista still didn’t entirely break out until a swing overhaul under the tutelage of Toronto manager Cito Gaston and hitting coach Dwayne Murphy.  The results were incredible — after managing just 59 career homers over his first 2038 PA in the bigs, Bautista exploded for 54 homers in 2010 and the rest is history.

Bautista’s outspoken personality made him a clubhouse leader in Toronto but also ruffled some feathers around the league, whether it’s questioning the strike zones of several umpires, getting involved in the most memorable on-field brawl in recent memory or his iconic bat flip home run in Game Five of the 2015 ALDS.  There hasn’t been any indication that Bautista’s attitude is necessarily impacting his free agent stock; if anything, Bautista has a reputation as an intense competitor.

Market

Needless to say, Bautista won’t be getting anything close to the massive asking price (five or six years for $150-$180MM) he reportedly floated during preseason extension talks with the Jays.  In fact, given his disappointing year, Bautista could’ve been justified in accepting the one-year, $17.2MM qualifying offer in the hopes of rebounding in 2017 and testing the market again next winter in search of a bigger contract.

Instead, he rejected the Blue Jays’ offer, so any club that signs him will have to give up its top unprotected draft pick for Bautista’s services.  As we’ve seen in the past, the qualifying offer can limit the market for anything less than superstar free agents.  Between the draft pick compensation, Bautista’s age, his declining defense and hitting numbers and the number of other first base/DH types on the market, Bautista could have a tough time finding what he believes is fair value.

On the other hand, it’s hard to ignore Bautista’s performance prior to 2016.  There will certainly be teams interested in seeing if Bautista can bounce back to his old form, and Bautista’s apparent willingness to shift out of right field will increase his list of suitors.

Teams like the Orioles, Red Sox, Astros or Mariners have multiple holes at DH, first base or the corner outfield slots that Bautista could fill, switching positions on a near-daily basis to accommodate other players on the roster.  The Dodgers, and Giants have corner outfield slots that Bautista could fill, and conceivably the A’s and Phillies could be added to the list if Bautista’s price drops or if he isn’t set on joining a contender.  The Rockies could sign Bautista as a first baseman with an eye towards giving him some time in the outfield if Carlos Gonzalez or Charlie Blackmon are traded.  The Nationals somewhat surprisingly asked about Bautista at last summer’s trade deadline so they could be a suitor now; with Ryan Zimmerman still holding down first base in Washington, Bautista would have to play right, with Harper sliding to center.  I don’t know if the bad blood between Bautista and the Rangers would preclude the two sides from doing business, though Bautista is at least an on-paper fit in Texas as a first baseman or designated hitter.

The Yankees and Mets have both already been linked to Bautista, though the Mets would need to deal one of Lucas Duda, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson or (less likely) Michael Conforto to make room.  For the Yankees, Bautista would add veteran stability to their young first base/right field/DH mix of Greg Bird, Tyler Austin, Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks, and left field could also open up if anything comes of trade inquiries about Brett Gardner.

While Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins recently said that the club’s signing of Kendrys Morales didn’t mean that Toronto couldn’t still bring back Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion, talks between Bautista and the Jays are reportedly not showing any signs of re-opening.  Bautista could still technically fit playing right, first base and DH in rotation with Morales and Justin Smoak, though at this point, it seems like the Bautista era is Toronto is coming to a close.

Expected Contract

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked Bautista 12th on his list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, projecting Bautista for a three-year, $51MM contract but with the potential for an opt-out clause after the first year or perhaps just a one-year deal altogether.

I would tend to think that a multi-year deal with an opt-out is the best scenario for all parties.  Bautista already feels that he vastly outperformed his previous contract — he could see another modest multi-year deal as a missed opportunity at prime earning years in 2018 or 2019, as obviously he believes he’ll return to form next season.  With an opt-out, Bautista can test the market again next winter if he has that rebound year, and the signing team might be satisfied to have gotten one big year from a 36-year-old and then let off the hook for his age-37 season and beyond.

This is a tough one to predict given Bautista’s lackluster platform year, though I believe Tim’s projection of a $17MM average annual value will end up being accurate.  Whether Bautista gets a third year could depend on how the rest of the first base/DH market shakes out.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Blue Jays Offered Roughly $80MM To Edwin Encarnacion

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The Blue Jays made a four-year contract offer to Edwin Encarnacion that was worth “about” $80MM before agreeing to a three-year, $33MM deal with Kendrys Morales, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi first noted that the Jays’ offer to Encarnacion was “likely” in that vicinity. However, despite the addition of Morales, Toronto is still interested in re-signing Encarnacion and remains in the mix for his services, according to Heyman. The Jays feel that Encarnacion can play first base competently enough to coexist on the roster with Morales.

The $80MM offer to Encarnacion is a sizable step up from the team’s reported two-year offer back in Spring Training, though Encarnacion’s robust market seems likely to lead to greater offers. Heyman lists the Astros, Yankees, Rangers and Red Sox as other teams that have at least reached out to Encarnacion, and agent Paul Kinzer tells him that a couple of National League clubs have reached out as well. Certainly, there will be some who are scared off by the notion of playing Encarnacion at first base on an everyday basis, especially as he advances into his late 30s over the life of a four- or five-year deal, but it’s worth noting that Encarnacion has at least graded out as a roughly average defender at first in fairly limited action with the Jays over the past two seasons (0 DRS, +3.3 UZR in 1117 innings).

Toronto general manager Ross Atkins said this weekend that the door is still open for a new deal with Encarnacion, stating that the signing of Morales only “slightly” lessens the chances of a big splash for Encarnacion. However, Atkins also said the team would be aggressive in pursuing one, if not two outfield pieces to add to the mix, and the Jays are also known to be interested in adding left-handed relief help (especially now that Brett Cecil has signed in St. Louis). With so many needs across the board and a number of other clubs interested in Encarnacion’s bat, it’s not clear that the Jays will feel comfortable beating the market in order to retain their star slugger, especially considering the fact that the Morales deal brings another potential 30-homer bat to the table at a considerably more affordable rate.

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