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Blue Jays Notes: Price, Donaldson, Bautista, Floyd

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Blue Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro appeared on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM and spoke to Jim Bowden about the decision not to re-sign David Price this offseason (audio link). “Every team has a budget,” Shapiro began. “Every team has operating parameters. I don’t know why it’s not fashionable to just say the truth. David Price would’ve represented almost our entire offseason. It’s that simple, Jim. Almost no one would make that decision. … To me, it comes down to we had a very, very, very challenging pitching dilemma here in that we lost him, we lost [Marco] Estrada. We had zero Triple-A pitchers — not one, not a name to fill our rotation in Triple-A. We had to take the money, which was ample, and figure out how to both solve the Major League rotation, which was two spots in the rotation, along with solving a depth challenge. … Regardless of how great one pitcher is, you need to build a team around the guy, too.”

More from Shapiro and more on the Jays…

  • Within that same interview, Shapiro also said that he discussed multiple concepts with Josh Donaldson’s representatives before agreeing to a two-year, $29MM contract. The club explored long-term contract scenarios that would buy out free-agent years as well as three-year deals to lock in all of his remaining arbitration seasons and also just straight one-year deals. “Josh is a guy that not only performed at an elite level from a talent perspective but provided the energy, leadership and competitive edge that, to me, fueled this team last year,” said Shapiro of the reigning American League MVP.
  • With Donaldson’s contract situation now resolved, the club can turn its attention to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Shapiro explained that the team has a clear desire to extend each player, but the question of what it will take to do so is significant. Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron attempts to price out an extension for Bautista, who will turn 36 in October and is thus considerably older than the typical extension candidate. Even elite position players in Bautista’s age class have been limited to a maximum of four years, writes Cameron, citing the contracts for Victor Martinez, Ben Zobrist and Carlos Beltran as examples of older stars that have taken four (or, in Beltran’s case, three) years on the open market. As Cameron notes, a good bit of decline will need to be expected over the term of the contract, and it’s likely that Bautista would look like an overvalued asset in a four-year deal’s final season. Ultimately, after making a four-year WAR projection and forecasting for some year-to-year regression, Cameron arrives at a four-year, $75MM pact as a reasonable price.
  • There’s some sense to that deal for both sides, to be sure, though I personally wonder if Cameron’s general hypothesis that Bautista would land at four years and $90MM on the open market next year undersells his earning potential. Assuming a characteristically productive season, Bautista could be the premier bat on a thin free-agent market, and age notwithstanding, a $22.5MM annual value isn’t the top of the spectrum for premium power hitters. I’d wager that a current Blue Jays extension would have to top $80MM in total value, as I can envision enough interest in his bat to push that earning ceiling closer to, or even north of $100MM on the open market, either via an increased annual value or via a club tacking on a fifth year (at a much lower rate) as a means of pushing its offer over the top. (For those interested in further reading on Bautista, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk profiled his extension candidacy back in November.)
  • Gavin Floyd’s strong finish to the 2015 season in Cleveland impressed not only Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins (both were still with the Indians at the time), but a number of Blue Jays scouts as well, writes Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith. Floyd’s fastball sat at 92 mph and touched 95 mph, writes Nicholson-Smith, and with three additional breaking pitches in his arsenal, Atkins, Shapiro and the scouting staff deemed him worthy of a 40-man roster spot if that was the final component needed to get Floyd to Toronto. “He has the make-up of a starter with a repeatable delivery and a four-pitch arsenal,” said Atkins. “We’ve also seen his work ethic up close and we know it’s going to be there.” As Nicholson-Smith notes, Floyd doesn’t need to provide much value to justify such a minimal investment.

Quick Hits: Wedge, Nathan, Draft, Roster Building

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A surprisingly large number of noteworthy veteran free agents are still available, a phenomenon that ESPN’s Buster Olney explores in his latest subscription-only column.  The signing drought extends to big-name free agents like Dexter Fowler and Yovani Gallardo to lower-tier players just looking for Spring Training invites.  “I understand that my guy isn’t what he once was, but nothing?  Not even a chance to come in and impress and beat out other guys for a job in camp? I just don’t get it,” one agent said.  Several executives and agents believe that tanking could be part of the issue, as teams looking for a higher draft pick in 2017 have little need for a veteran who could provide a win or two.  Other factors include an under-valuing of experience, and a greater reliance on both young players and trades to fill out a roster.

Here’s more from around the baseball world on Babe Ruth’s 121st birthday…

  • The Blue Jays have hired Eric Wedge as a player development advisor, the team announced.  The former Indians and Mariners manager is well known to Jays president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins from their time together in Cleveland, which included an AL Central title and a run to Game Seven of the ALCS in 2007.  Wedge had been rumored to join Toronto’s front office for several weeks.
  • Wedge’s hiring “has the feel of manager in waiting,” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) opines.  A managerial change would be rather a surprise in the wake of the Blue Jays’ AL East championship, though skipper John Gibbons has a well-known close relationship with former Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos and it isn’t unusual for a new front office to install a new face in the dugout.
  • Dave Pepe, Joe Nathan’s agent, tells FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi (Twitter links) that his client is planning to pitch in 2016.  “He feels great…We are just going to look for the best opportunity and are not necessarily in any rush to sign,” Pepe said.  Nathan underwent Tommy John surgery (the second such procedure of his career) last April and said earlier this offseason that he was hoping to pitch by May or June.  Despite Nathan’s age and injury history, around 10 teams were checking in on him.
  • It wouldn’t be a surprise to see a high school pitcher be selected near the top of the amateur draft, Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron writes, with perhaps even the Phillies using their first overall pick on highly-touted southpaw Jason Groome.  While only a few of the high school arms taken with the top few picks have developed into productive big leaguers, Cameron notes that this year’s draft class doesn’t yet offer much in the way of standout hitting prospects or college pitchers who could be technically “safer” choices.
  • Some of the draft’s intriguing junior college prospects are profiled by ESPN.com’s Eric Longenhagen (Insider subscription required), including the children of some prominent former Major Leaguers.
  • Each team’s roster is broken down by Fangraphs’ August Fagerstrom to investigate how clubs acquire their players — whether by trades, international signings, free agent signings, waiver pickups, or the amateur or Rule 5 drafts.  Fagerstrom breaks down each category by fWAR to see where each club excels at deriving value, including some notable observations about the Giants’ unmatched wealth of homegrown talent and the Cubs’ strong run of recent trades.

Blue Jays Sign Gavin Floyd

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SATURDAY, 12:17PM: The move is official, as per a Blue Jays press release.

SATURDAY, 11:59AM: Floyd’s deal with the Jays is a Major League contract, Gideon Turk of Blue Jays Plus was first to report (via Twitter).  Floyd will earn a $1MM base salary and can get up to $1MM in incentives based on how many days he spends in the 25-man roster.  He’ll also receive $500K for 90 days on the roster, $250K for 120 days and another $250K for 140 days, per Jon Heyman (Twitter links).

THURSDAY: Right-hander Gavin Floyd “appears headed for [a] deal with [the] Blue Jays,” Jon Heyman reports (on Twitter). SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets that the Moye Sports client is indeed in agreement with the Jays, pending a physical.

Floyd, who turned 33 just last week, would serve as a back-of-the-rotation option for the Blue Jays, though it’s tough to imagine he’d be promised a spot in the starting five after throwing just 92 Major League innings across the past three seasons. The longtime White Sox righty underwent Tommy John surgery early in the 2013 season and returned with a flourish with the Braves in 2014 (2.65 ERA in 54 1/3 innings) before missing the remainder of the season due to a fractured olecranon bone in his right elbow. Somewhat astoundingly, Floyd suffered the exact same injury in Spring Training with the Indians last year. He was thought to be lost for the season, although he did return to toss 13 1/3 effective innings of relief late in the year. Given the lengthy list of recent injuries, Floyd seemed like a candidate for a minor league deal, though details on his agreement with Toronto remain unclear.

At his best, Floyd has proven to be a highly capable mid-rotation arm, although it’s obviously been quite some time since he was healthy enough to display that over the course of a full season. Nevertheless, from 2008-12, Floyd averaged 190 innings of 4.12 ERA ball with 7.2 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 45.1 percent ground-ball rate. When adjusting for Floyd’s hitter-friendly home park and the heightened offensive output league-wide during that period, Floyd was about eight percent better than the league-average pitcher in terms of both ERA and FIP.

Clearly, president of baseball operations Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins, both former executives with the Indians, think highly of Floyd, as this is the second time he’s signed with a team under that duo’s leadership. Floyd had reportedly drawn interest from the division-rival Orioles on a minor league pact earlier this offseason and had also been speculatively mentioned as a fit for the Rangers, among other clubs.

Floyd will look to crack a rotation that currently has Marcus Stroman, R.A. Dickey, Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ locked in place. Toronto has no shortage of candidates for the fifth spot, with Drew Hutchison, Jesse Chavez and Aaron Sanchez representing rotation options on the 40-man roster (to say nothing of non-roster invitees like Scott Diamond, Roberto Hernandez, Wade LeBlanc and Brad Penny as potential depth pieces to stash at Triple-A).

Blue Jays Designate Chad Jenkins For Assignment

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The Blue Jays have designated righty Chad Jenkins for assignment, as per a team press release.  The move creates roster space for Gavin Floyd, whose deal with the club was officially announced.

Jenkins was Toronto’s first round pick (20th overall) in the 2009 draft, though his big league career to date has consisted of 100 2/3 innings pitched, with 40 of his 46 MLB appearances coming out of the bullpen.  Jenkins has a 3.31 ERA, 1.96 K/BB rate and 4.6 K/9 over parts of four Major League seasons with the Jays, and he appeared in just two games last year.

As per the MLB Trade Rumors DFA Tracker, Jenkins joins four other players in awaiting their next assignment.

Jesse Chavez Wins Arbitration Hearing With Blue Jays

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Right-hander Jesse Chavez will earn $4MM in 2016 after winning his arbitration hearing with the Blue Jays.  The news was reported in a tweet from Chavez’s representatives at the Sosnick Cobbe Karon agency.

There was a fairly modest gap between the two sides, as the Jays had countered with a $3.6MM offer.  As a “file-and-trial” team, the Jays’ policy is to go to a hearing with any player that doesn’t reach agreement on a new contract before the arbitration filing deadline.  (The exception would be if the team and player are discussing a multi-year extension, such as is the case with Toronto and Josh Donaldson before the AL MVP’s hearing on February 15.)

Matt Swartz predicted Chavez to land an even bigger salary of $4.7MM in his arbitration projections for MLBTR, though the $4MM number still represents a nice bump for Chavez over his $2.15MM salary he earned in 2015.  This was Chavez’s third and final year of arbitration eligibility and he’s slated to hit free agency next winter.

Thus far, players who have gone to hearings this offseason are a perfect 3-for-3, as Chavez joins the Reds’ J.J. Hoover and the Rays’ Drew Smyly as players ruled worthy of their higher salaries.  The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have lost two of three arbitration hearings over the last two winters, losing to Chavez and Danny Valencia while winning last year’s hearing with Donaldson.

Chavez, 32, is entering his second stint as a Blue Jay after being acquired from the A’s in a deal for Liam Hendriks in November.  Chavez will compete for the fifth spot in the Jays’ rotation, though he could essentially fill Hendriks’ old job as the long man in Toronto’s bullpen.  In three-plus years in Oakland, Chavez posted a 3.98 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 2.80 K/BB rate in 363 2/3 innings (split between 47 starts and 54 relief appearances).

AL East Notes: Yankees, Betts, Bogaerts, Porcello, Chavez

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There are several big-picture reasons for the Yankees’ lack of free agent spending this offseason, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan writes.  With a new collective bargaining agreement looming, the Yankees may be hesitant to commit millions more in player salaries until they know what the new luxury tax and revenue-sharing formulas will entail.  Sources tell Passan that the luxury tax limit is likely to be raised from $189MM and New York therefore has a better chance of getting under the new threshold to lower its yearly penalty rate.  Between cutting down on luxury tax payments and losing several huge contracts (Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, etc.) over the next two seasons, it could position the Yankees to splurge in the incredibly star-studded 2018-19 free agent market.  The crown jewel of this free agent class is Bryce Harper, who has long been considered a future Yankees target — “their future marriage is considered so inevitable by most in the sport,” Passan writes.

Here’s more from around the AL East…

  • The Red Sox may not be in a rush to sign Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts to extensions, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes.  Even if Betts and Bogaerts continue to blossom into superstars, waiting another year to explore extensions might cost Boston only a couple of million dollars, a negligible amount for a big-market team.  The two players may themselves have reason to wait, as Speier cites the argument from Over the Monster’s Matt Collins that Betts and Bogaerts may want to see what the next CBA holds before committing to long-term deals.  Given the huge recent free agent contracts signed by players in their 20’s, Betts and Bogaerts also might not want to sign away any of their free agent years in an extension when a much larger score could await them down the road.
  • In a recent podcast interview with WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford, Rick Porcello discussed the decision process that went into signing his four-year, $82.5MM extension with the Red Sox last offseason.  Without that contract, Porcello would’ve been a free agent this winter on the heels of a pretty shaky 2015 campaign.  Despite the righty’s struggles, Bradford notes that Porcello still could’ve found himself a healthy contract on the open market — Jeff Samardzija and Ian Kennedy both landed large multi-year deals despite coming off of rough seasons themselves, and Porcello is four years younger than either of those pitchers.
  • Jesse Chavez’s arbitration hearing with the Blue Jays took place Friday and a decision is expected today, according to the Associated Press.  Chavez is arguing for a $4MM salary in 2016 while the Jays countered with a $3.6MM offer.
  • Mark Trumbo is excited to be an Oriole, he tells MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko, though he was surprised when the O’s acquired him from the Mariners since he didn’t know the club had interest.  Trumbo believes he’s a better first baseman than outfielder, though with Chris Davis now back at first for years to come in Baltimore, Trumbo says “it doesn’t matter to me one bit” where he slots into the lineup as long as it helps the team win.

Blue Jays To Explore Extensions With Bautista, Encarnacion

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The Blue Jays will attempt to hammer out new contracts with pending free agents Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reports. Toronto intends to engage with those stars’ representatives this spring, per the report.

As has previously been reported, Jays president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins have sat down with both sluggers already this winter, though Atkins made clear to Stark that the meetings didn’t involve contract negotiations. But those chats did solidify the team’s view that it would “love to have both of them” remain in Toronto past the 2016 campaign, as Atkins put it.

“And the more we’ve learned about them, that has only increased our interest in keeping them here,” Atkins went on to say. “The challenge lies in placing a value on that and then agreeing on a contract.”

Of course, as that last line suggests, finding common ground still appears to pose a significant challenge. While both players paid off — and then some — under their prior extensions, there as many reasons for hesitation now as when they first inked big deals.

Though both players are now well entrenched among the game’s best power hitters, age is a major consideration. Bautista is already 35, while Encarnacion just hit 33. And defensive limitations also come into play. The former has begun to draw negative metrics in the outfield, while the latter is more or less limited to first base or DH duties at this point.

As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently wrote in evaluating Bautista’s extension candidacy, those considerations would seem to make it unlikely that long-term commitments would be made to both players. Exactly how that will play into the way the Jays approach talks — for instance, whether one or the other is prioritized, or whether Toronto pursues each independently but only to a certain cost point — remains to be seen.

It does appear that Bautista, at least, is ready to engage in talks. He has spoken glowingly of the organization and indicated he’d like to finish his career there. Of course, as Ken Rosenthal discussed with Ben Nicholson-Smith and Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca on a recent podcast, it is hard to see the veteran taking a truly significant discount with free agency beckoning.

You’d be hard pressed to find a better middle of the order duo that’s stayed together and been so consistently productive. Dating back to 2010, their first full season together, Bautista has slashed .268/.390/.555 and contributed 227 home runs. Encarnacion, meanwhile, has carried a .271/.358/.525 line with 189 long balls, with his output only increasing over that span.

Blue Jays Sign David Aardsma To Minor League Deal

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The Blue Jays announced that they have signed right-hander David Aardsma to a minor league contract with an invitation to Major League Spring Training.

Aardsma, a client of TWC Sports, will look to force his way into a bullpen that is anchored by Drew Storen, Roberto Osuna and Brett Cecil. The bullpen should also feature two of Aaron Sanchez, Jesse Chavez and Drew Hutchison — each of whom also figures to get a look in the rotation as well. Other candidates include left-hander Aaron Loup and right-handers Bo Schultz and Ryan Tepera.

Last season, Aardsma began the year with the Dodgers but opted out of his contract after a strong showing in Triple-A didn’t yield a promotion to the Majors. The 34-year-old veteran quickly hooked on with the Braves on a minor league deal and saw his contract selected within days of signing. He wound up tossing 30 2/3 innings of relief as a member of the Atlanta bullpen, posting a 4.70 ERA with 10.3 K/9, 4.1 BB/9 and a 29.5 percent ground-ball rate. Aardsma, who saved 69 games for the Mariners back in 2009-10, has never had a problem missing bats, even as his velocity has dipped down from its mid-90s peak in his late 20s. He has a 4.27 ERA with a 340-to-183 K/BB ratio in 337 innings at the Major League level, although Tommy John surgery and a torn labrum in his left hip in 2011-12 have slowed his career.

If you’re interested in learning more about Aardsma’s background, career path, and approach to the game, be sure to check out his appearance on the MLBTR Podcast last fall.

Arbitration Hearing Notes: Donaldson, Arrieta, Martinez, Britton, Astros

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The arbitration hearing between the Blue Jays and Josh Donaldson is set for Feb. 15, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter), giving the two sides 10 days to work out a multi-year deal. President Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins said last night that the two sides have been discussing such a pact, and the hearing deadline certainly gives the club motivation to strike a deal. The Blue Jays employ a file-and-trial approach to arbitration, which is to say that the team is one of many that have a policy against negotiating on one-year deals once figures are exchanged. That approach led to a hearing between the Blue Jays and Donaldson last year, and both sides undoubtedly would prefer to avoid a hearing for the second straight season. The Blue Jays won a hearing over Donaldson last winter, though he’ll have an American League MVP Award in his corner this season. Those interested in Donaldson’s case can check out an in-depth look from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, written as part of his Arbitration Breakdown series, prior to the exchange of figures.

Some more notes on various arbitration hearings around the league…

  • The Cubs and reigning NL Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta are on a tighter schedule, as Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670thescore.com reports (on Twitter). Arrieta’s arbitration hearing is set to come next Tuesday — Feb. 9. The $5.5MM gap between Arrieta’s submitted figure of $13MM and the Cubs’ $7.5MM counter is the largest of any case this year. Swartz also examined Arrieta’s case at length.
  • J.D. Martinez and the Tigers are continuing to discuss both one- and two-year deals, reports Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Martinez appears open to a considerably longer-term deal, having voiced a desire to spend the rest of his career with the Tigers. Martinez said last month that the two sides have discussed a long-term deal, but it’s unclear whether talks on a contract extending the club’s control beyond Martinez’s two remaining arbitration seasons has been seriously discussed. Swartz broke down Martinez’s case at length as well.
  • Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that the Orioles and Zach Britton have a hearing set for Feb. 17 (Twitter link). The two sides are facing a fairly sizable $2.3MM gap between Britton’s $7.9MM figure and the club’s $5.6MM counter. If a deal can’t be reached, it’d mark the second straight season with an arb hearing for the Orioles, who won a hearing over Alejandro De Aza last February.
  • The Astros have arbitration hearings for Jason Castro and Evan Gattis set for Feb. 8 and Feb. 16, respectively, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (Twitter link). With Houston taking a file-and-trial approach to arbitration, both cases seem likely to reach a trial. Castro, in particular, seems destined for that outcome, as he’s a free agent following the season and thus unlikely to hammer out a multi-year deal.
  • While in many cases, the gap between the player and team submission appears trivial, there’s a reason that many teams take such a firm stance. MLBTR spoke to multiple Major League executives on the topic last February to get their explanation of the responsibility felt by teams in arbitration.

All of the remaining unresolved cases, as well as the exchange of figures and settled amounts for all 156 players that filed for arbitration can be viewed in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.

Latest On Jays' Extension Talks With Bautista, Donaldson

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Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista indicated that he’s very open to holding contract talks before reaching free agency after the season, as Gregory Strong of the Canadian Press reports. Bautista said it would be an honor to end his career in Toronto, though obviously there’s a long way to go to make that happen. He noted that he had recently sat down with new club president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins, but also suggested that true negotiations haven’t occurred. “I have to have something to consider at some point if I’m going to make that decision, which hasn’t happened yet,” said Bautista. “So I’m going to continue to go about my business just like any other year and any other day because I don’t really have a decision to make right now.”

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