AL East Notes: Trumbo, Red Sox, Bautista, Encarnacion
The latest column from Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports focuses on the league-wide home run surge in 2016. MLB is on pace to set a new record for the most homers in a season on a per-plate-appearance basis. Passan profiles players either experiencing shocking levels of power output (e.g. Brian Dozier, Freddy Galvis) or enjoying a significant rebound in the power department, led by Orioles slugger Mark Trumbo. Acquired in a salary dump with the Mariners, Trumbo’s one-dimensional nature created virtually no trade market for him, Passan notes, and while his power spike will improve his stock this offseason, the one-dimensional questions will still exist. Trumbo is one of baseball’s worst defensive outfielders and has a below-average OBP because he walks less than the prototypical slugger. Still, a much older Nelson Cruz parlayed a 40-homer season into a four-year, $57MM contract, Passan notes, and he came with similar defensive question marks. I’d imagine that a team hoping to put Trumbo at first base wouldn’t be as concerned with his glove, but the combination of his defensive reputation, lack of OBP and a the presence of a qualifying offer will all be working against him.
More from the AL East…
- The Red Sox won’t have a late-inning baserunning specialist this postseason as they have in each of their recent World Series runs, writes WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. Boston has previously leaned on Dave Roberts, Joey Gathright and Quintin Berry to serve as a bench weapon late in postseason contests — deploying each with great success in base-stealing situations. The Sox reached out to Berry once again this season following his release from the Angels, but Berry elected to sign with the division-rival Blue Jays, who ultimately released him on Sept. 7 — after the postseason eligibility deadline. There was also some hope that Yoan Moncada could fill the role, but he’s committed a few baserunning blunders that have led the Sox to question whether he’s capable of handling such a stage, Bradford points out.
- There are more teams in the league that believe Edwin Encarnacion can still play a passable first base on an everyday basis than there are teams that believe Jose Bautista can still be an everyday right fielder, per Sportsnet’s Jeff Blair. Certainly, both Blue Jays sluggers will garner interest from American League clubs this winter given the fact that either could spend some time at DH in future seasons, but Blair also notes that there are “at least a couple” of NL teams that view Encarnacion as a viable first base option. Encarnacion, who will turn 34 this offseason, has seen considerably more time at DH than first base in the past two seasons, though it doesn’t sound as if he’ll be viewed strictly in that light this winter. Bautista, meanwhile, will turn 36 in October and has missed time with a knee sprain this season. Both Defensive Runs Saved (-9) and Ultimate Zone Rating (-5) are pessimistic about his defense.
Poll: Should The Blue Jays Issue Michael Saunders A Qualifying Offer?
Back on August 16, I posted a forecast of which free agents could receive qualifying offers from their teams this offseason. Michael Saunders was listed as one of my “easy calls” to receive the one-year, $16.7MM contract, with one important caveat. Saunders, at that point, had been in a month-long slump, so I noted that the Blue Jays could re-consider issuing Saunders a QO if his slump continued, given his lack of track record as an upper-tier hitter.
Well, fast-forward six weeks and Saunders’ bat has yet to wake up. In 27 games between August 16 and September 23, Saunders is hitting just .207/.286/.427 with four homers over 92 plate appearances. In the second half altogether, Saunders has contributed a .179/.284/.375 slash line over 195 PA, though eight of his 24 homers on the season have come since the All-Star break.
So while Saunders has retained some of his pop (he has a respectable .196 isolated slugging mark in the second half) since the Midsummer Classic, the rest of his batting numbers have fallen off the table. This has made Saunders a sub-replacement level player for the Jays, since if Saunders isn’t hitting, he can’t contribute much on the basepaths or as a corner outfielder. An above-average baserunner early in his career according to Fangraphs’ BsR metric, Saunders has unsurprisingly been subpar in that category since tearing his meniscus during a freak Spring Training accident in 2015 and subsequently missing much of that season due to knee problems. It’s fair to guess that the knee injury has also contributed to Saunders’ poor defense, as his minus-9 Defensive Runs Scored and -12.1 UZR/150 this season in the outfield is well below his pre-meniscus tear career standard as a decent left fielder and a very good right fielder.
As it pertains to Saunders’ free agent stock, teams will certainly think hard about offering a big multi-year deal to a player who may already be turning into a bat-only type as he enters his age-30 season, especially when his bat may not be that potent. If Saunders and his representatives at Meister Sports Management feel that these question marks and the QO-attached draft pick compensation hanging over his free agency could limit his market, he could accept the Jays’ qualifying offer and aim for 2017 as that true breakout year where he is both healthy and consistently productive.
If the Blue Jays think there’s a chance Saunders accepts a QO, would they be comfortable offering it? The Jays may be wary committing $16.7MM to a player with Saunders’ limitations. There’s also the fact that Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are also free agents this winter, and both will certainly be issued qualifying offers. Encarnacion will definitely reject his, while there’s a chance Bautista could accept given his disappointing and injury-plagued season. If both signed elsewhere, the Jays would probably welcome Saunders accepting a QO just so they could retain one important bat for the lineup. Encarnacion’s departure would also free up the designated hitter spot for Saunders and other veterans in the Blue Jays lineup. If fatigue has been a factor in Saunders’ second-half slide, regular DH at-bats would help keep him fresher and perhaps more productive over all 162 games.
This all being said, let’s not forget just how tremendous Saunders was in the first half of 2016. Only 13 players in baseball topped Saunders’ first-half wRC+ of 146, and the outfielder hit an impressive .298/.372/.551 with 16 homers over 344 PA. Saunders had long been rumored to have middle-of-the-order bat potential, and it was all clicking for him in the first 3.5 months of the season.
Given that teams are increasingly preferring to be flexible with their DH spot rather than have one designated hitter, a team with holes at both DH and corner outfield would certainly consider Saunders to rotate between both positions. As mentioned earlier, 2017 will be Saunders’ age-30 season, which gives him an age advantage over some of the other notable corner outfield/DH types on the market this offseason. Teams may be more willing to surrender a draft pick for a player who could still be coming into his prime, so it’s quite possible that Saunders will find a nice contract elsewhere and the Jays can recoup a draft pick via the qualifying offer.
Far from being an “easy call” anymore, Saunders now stands as one of the most intriguing QO cases of any free agent this winter, particularly given how his situation could influence how the Blue Jays approach re-signing Encarnacion and/or Bautista. How do MLBTR readers feel? (link for app users):
Should The Blue Jays Issue Michael Saunders A Qualifying Offer?
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No 64% (3,183)
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Yes 36% (1,787)
Total votes: 4,970
Cafardo’s Latest: Orioles, Bautista, Hellickson, Reddick
The Orioles and agent Scott Boras discussed impending free agents Matt Wieters and Pedro Alvarez in a meeting last week, but no progress was made toward extensions for either, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. As a result, Wieters and Alvarez look likely to depart Baltimore at season’s end. Wieters, the Orioles’ top catcher since 2009, accepted a qualifying offer from the club for $15.7MM a year ago, but they probably won’t tender him for $16.7MM during the upcoming offseason. The 30-year-old is in the midst of one of his worst offensive seasons, having batted .241/.300/.401 in 438 plate appearances. Alvarez, a former Pirate, took a $5.75MM deal with the O’s last March and has since slashed .248/.319/.506 with 22 homers in 367 PAs. Those are right in line with the numbers the designated hitter/corner infielder regularly produced in Pittsburgh.
More from Cafardo:
- Right fielder/DH Jose Bautista‘s underwhelming showing this year could lead him to accept a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, writes Cafardo. After terrorizing opposing pitchers from 2010-15, Bautista has hit a disappointing .233/.360/.449 with 20 homers in 484 PAs. The soon-to-be 36-year-old has also been on the disabled list multiple times. In taking a QO from the Jays, he’d have a chance to rebuild his value and make a stronger case for a high-paying deal after the 2017 season, Cafardo argues. However, that would represent a far fall for a player who reportedly wanted a long-term pact worth $30MM-plus per year last offseason.
- The Phillies and Jeremy Hellickson have mutual interest in keeping the right-hander in Philadelphia, but he might first explore the open market before making a commitment, per Cafardo. With so few capable starters primed to hit free agency in the coming months, it won’t be surprising if Hellickson does listen to other teams’ offers. Hellickson, who will turn 30 in April, has rebounded from three straight subpar seasons to post a 3.78 ERA, 7.27 K/9, 2.18 BB/9 and 14.4 percent infield pop-up rate across 185 2/3 innings this season.
- Outfielder Josh Reddick‘s less-than-stellar output with the Dodgers could cost him a significant amount of money in free agency, Cafardo contends. Reddick, whom LA acquired from Oakland before the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, has batted .241/.291/.298 with one home run in 152 PAs as a Dodger. The 29-year-old was far better as a member of the Athletics, with whom he hit .257/.321/.440 and combined for 14.2 fWAR in 2,364 PAs from 2012-16. As of June, Reddick wanted in the neighborhood of $15MM per annum on a four-plus-year deal, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported. The A’s were offering well below that – in the three-year, $30MM range – which undoubtedly helped lead to the end of Reddick’s tenure with them.
AL Notes: Postseason Preparation, Holland, Blue Jays
A team’s preparation for the postseason starts well before the playoffs actually begin, Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald writes. The process of scouting potential playoff opponents, for example, begins months in advance. “You have to throw superstition out the window, because you’ve got to start that process in August,” says Red Sox president Sam Kennedy. “There’s a lot that goes into it. We have actually one person who wears a variety of hats here, but he is our postseason coordinator.” Teams also must plan for the possibility of winning a World Series even when they’re far from winning one. For example, the winning team must host a gala. “You may be two and a half games out of the Wild Card, and you’re sitting around trying to book a party for 1,500 people,” says Kennedy. Here’s more from the American League.
- The Rangers are moving lefty Derek Holland to the bullpen, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes (Twitter links). Holland has been a fixture in the Rangers’ rotation since 2009, but he’s posted a 5.04 ERA, 5.7 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 105 1/3 innings of a 2016 season marred by shoulder trouble. The idea behind the switch is to evaluate whether Holland help the team out of the bullpen in the playoffs. According to manager Jeff Banister, the team will likely go with eight relievers on its ALDS roster.
- The Blue Jays are in the midst of plans to keep their Spring Training home in Dunedin, Florida for the next 25 years, Megan Reeves of the Tampa Bay Times writes. Under the terms of the proposed deal, the team will partner with the county, city and state to do about $81MM worth of renovating and rebuilding. Of that total, the team will pay $15.7MM. The stadium at which Spring Training games are played will be renovated, while the team will also get a new clubhouse to update its training site. The Blue Jays have been in Dunedin since their inception in 1977, Reeves notes, making them the only team that has never changed Spring Training locations.
AL Notes: Liriano, Royals, Mariners
After struggling through the first four months of the season with the Pirates, lefty Francisco Liriano has enjoyed success since coming to the Blue Jays in a deadline trade, writes Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith. Nicholson-Smith notes that, since the trade, Liriano has gotten opposing batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone 35.1% of the time, up from 27.8% with the Bucs. “He’s always had one of the better arms in baseball. He’s one of those guys that can always dominate teams and he really hasn’t lost a whole lot,” says manager John Gibbons. In seven starts with Toronto, Liriano has a 3.35 ERA, 8.8 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. If he can maintain similar numbers in 2017, he’ll be more than worth his $13.7MM salary, which means that the Blue Jays will likely come out significantly ahead in the trade that brought Liriano to Toronto, in which they also received prospects Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez while giving up only righty Drew Hutchison, who hasn’t been impressive in the Pirates organization so far. Here’s more from the American League.
- In the coming offseason, the Royals will discuss how best to use righty Joakim Soria and lefty Matt Strahm, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes. Soria signed a three-year deal last winter and has had an uneven first season in his return to Kansas City, posting a 4.12 ERA with 9.1 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. It sounds like he’ll be back in the Royals’ bullpen next year, although the team isn’t sure in what capacity. “[W]e’re going to be very active trying to make sure our bullpen gets back to what it has been. Joakim can be a big part of it,” says GM Dayton Moore. “I know it hasn’t been the type of year that he expected.” Strahm, in contrast, has had an outstanding rookie season in the bullpen, allowing just two runs while striking out 26 batters in his first 19 big-league innings. Strahm spent part of the season as a starter at Double-A Northwest Arkansas, though, and the Royals say they’ll continue to consider him as a starter and that it isn’t guaranteed he’ll break camp with the team.
- The Mariners have announced that they’ve named Justin Hollander their director of baseball operations. The 37-year-old Hollander had previously worked with Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto with the Angels, and last year Hollander served as that organization’s director of player personnel.
AL East Notes: Gibbons, Yankees, Kelly, Uehara
More from the AL East…
- With such little certainty in their rotation heading into the 2017 season, the Yankees need to focus on starting pitching this winter, opines ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider subscription required). Olney surmises that the Yankees have the financial firepower to add via free agency and should target left-hander Rich Hill as a high-upside addition to the staff. While Hill doesn’t come with much in the way of certainty himself, adding him would allow the team to enter the season with a high-upside mix of rotation arms and conserve its prospect depth and make a midseason pitching acquisition at a time when a greater number of targets will be available.
- Joe Kelly is demonstrating the potential to be a shutdown reliever for the Red Sox and could develop into a late-inning weapon in that role next season, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. MacPherson spoke to Red Sox pitching analyst (and former big league pitcher) Brian Bannister about Kelly, with Bannister noting that Kelly has one of the best spin rates of any pitcher in baseball on his curveball. “As a reliever, he can showcase that much more often,” said Bannister of Kelly, who has all but cut out his changeup and slider since moving to the bullpen. “It’s as impressive of a curveball as you’ll see out of anybody. It’s just a matter of finding out how far that can take him.” Kelly would like another chance at starting, however, according to MacPherson, though the Red Sox have yet to have the necessary conversations to determine if they’ll give him that chance.
- Sticking with the Boston ‘pen, the Globe’s Nick Cafardo writes that the return of Koji Uehara has helped to stabilize what was once a weak point for the Red Sox and turn it into a strength. Uehara’s return, paired with Kelly’s emergence, has allowed Robbie Ross Jr. and Brad Ziegler to be used in more specialized high-leverage roles. Uehara’s strong work late in the season makes it imperative that the Sox try to re-sign him this winter, Cafardo opines, despite the fact that he’ll pitch next season at age 42.
Blue Jays Name Paul Beeston President Emeritus
The Blue Jays announced today that long-time executive Paul Beeston has been named president emeritus of the organization, a designation that he’ll hold “in perpetuity.” Formerly the organization’s president and CEO, Beeston announced his retirement in the fall of 2015.
Beeston’s successor, Mark Shapiro, said that the honorary title was given to honor Beeston’s “incomparable” contributions. “This is simply a small token of recognition for the nearly four decades he’s given the game,” Shapiro said in the press release. “We felt it was right to honour the legacy he has built and ensure he’s a part of the future successes of this team.”
Meanwhile, the new top exec received plaudits from his predecessor. “Over the past year I have had a front row seat to observe Mark Shapiro’s innovative thinking, his professionalism and his commitment to winning and bringing a championship to Toronto,” Beeston commented in the release.
Beeston also noted his gratitude at today’s gesture. “I am fortunate to once again be welcomed back into this great organization,” he said. “To have a small role moving forward is something that I sincerely appreciate.”
It seems only fitting that Beeston will remain president emeritus for as long as the organization exists. He is, after all, its first employee. After entering the fold as vice president of administration back in 1976, Beeston oversaw the Jays as president & CEO for two separate stints — 1989 to 1997 and 2008 to 2015. The former period included the team’s memorable 1992 and 1993 World Series teams, while the latter was capped off last year with the Jays’ first return to the postseason since its back-to-back championships.
R.A. Dickey Undecided On Retirement
With the end of the regular season approaching, right-hander R.A. Dickey realizes that the start he made Friday could be his last with the Blue Jays, he told Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The knuckleballer threw five shutout innings against the Angels, yielding seven hits and one walk against five strikeouts in a 5-0 victory.
“When I came out I kind of ruminated over what that might be because there’s a chance that could be my last start as a Blue Jay. That’s somewhat emotional,” Dickey said. “But I have one singular goal, and I’ve made no secret about what that is: I just want to be on a championship ball club. That’s all I care about.”
At 81-67, The Blue Jays have a three-game cushion in the American League wild-card race. If they hold on and make the playoffs, Dickey is unlikely to factor into their October rotation plans. In the meantime, left-hander Francisco Liriano is expected to start the two regular-season games in which Toronto hasn’t officially scheduled a starter, writes Davidi. With that in mind, Dickey’s tenure as a Jays starter could indeed be over.
Looking beyond this season, Dickey is set to hit the free agent market as a 42-year-old during the winter. Dickey is unsure if he’ll pitch in 2017, however. While he has “never felt better” physically and believes he’s still capable of contributing, whether Dickey continues his career is “going to be a family decision.”
Dickey’s days as a front-line starter are long gone, but the 2012 National League Cy Young Award winner with the Mets has at least shown the ability to chew up innings this year. Dickey has tossed 169 1/3 frames, and his 4.46 ERA isn’t significantly worse than the AL league-average mark of 4.25. Entering 2016, he went five straight campaigns with 200-plus innings and posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the previous two years.
In the aggregate, Dickey has been much closer to average than great since Toronto surrendered a haul to the Mets to acquire him after the 2012 season. The Jays traded now-ace Noah Syndergaard and catcher Travis d’Arnaud in the package for Dickey, who has pitched to an unspectacular 4.05 ERA in 824 innings with the fifth major league team of his unique career. Dickey is cognizant of what Toronto gave up for him, of course.
“It’s been a real balancing act for me to walk the line between what people might expect of me because of past successes and what I was traded for,” he said.
Cafardo’s Latest: Fernandez, BoSox, Yanks, Jays, Dodgers, Cubs
The Marlins and agent Scott Boras appear unlikely to negotiate an extension for ace Jose Fernandez early in the offseason, according to the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, who reports the team could shop the right-hander as a result. Several of the majors’ high-payroll clubs, including the Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees and Cubs, would have interest in acquiring and extending Fernandez, per Cafardo. The 24-year-old is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2018 campaign and has thrown a career-high 174 1/3 innings this season. Along the way, Fernandez has posted dazzling numbers – 2.99 ERA, 12.44 K/9, 2.84 BB/9 – which has been the norm since he debuted in 2013.
More from Cafardo:
- Center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. is likely to remain with the Red Sox in 2017 unless they can get a No. 1-caliber starter for him during the winter, writes Cafardo. The Red Sox and White Sox reportedly discussed Bradley and top starters Chris Sale and Jose Quintana in advance of the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, but Boston wasn’t willing to part with Bradley then. Dealing him in the offseason would give the Red Sox more time to find a replacement, though Bradley has been an integral part of the club in 2016 and could continue to serve as a key piece going forward. The 26-year-old has slashed .273/.354/.501 with 25 home runs in 585 plate appearances and graded well both on the base paths and in the field.
- Plenty of teams will look to hire ex-Twins general manager Terry Ryan as a special advisor in the offseason, a major league source told Cafardo. The Twins fired Ryan in July, but the 62-year-old’s overall body of work has earned him respect from his peers.
- In the event the Blue Jays move on from manager John Gibbons after the season, Cafardo lists Torey Lovullo, Eric Wedge and Bud Black as potential successors. Lovullo, Boston’s bench coach, was an assistant in Toronto from 2011-12. Wedge, who previously managed the Indians and Mariners, now works in player development with the Jays. Black managed the Padres from 2007-15 and is currently a special assistant to Angels GM Billy Eppler.
- Teams will have offseason interest in Red Sox reliever Koji Uehara, an impending free agent, a major league source informed Cafardo. One of those clubs could be the Red Sox, though Cafardo notes that Uehara would need a strong finish to return to Boston for a fifth season. The soon-to-be 42-year-old should also end up with a salary far below the $9MM he’s making now. At 3.95, Uehara has logged his highest ERA since 2009, but his 6.33 K/BB ratio is seventh among relievers who have thrown at least 40 innings this year. Uehara has amassed 41.
Heyman’s Latest: Dodgers, Puig-Braun, CarGo, Cespedes, EE, Santana, Red Sox, Mariners
Dodgers righty Kenley Jansen says he is grateful to the team for all it has done for him, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports, but notes that he fully intends to explore the open market this winter. “We’ll have to see what’s good for the family,” he said. “It’s going to be a tough decision. It’s not going to only be me.” Infielder Justin Turner, meanwhile, says he’d “love to stay” in Los Angeles, as Heyman provides in his weekly notes column. Both figure to be targets for the Dodgers in free agency, but also ought to draw wide-ranging interest from other organizations.
Here are some of the other highlights from Heyman’s latest post:
- Heyman pushes back on recent reports suggesting that the Dodgers nearly shipped Yasiel Puig to the Brewers as part of a package to acquire Ryan Braun. A source tells him that “there was a lot of dialogue but [a swap] was never close.” Regardless, it seems that there’s still merit to the idea that the teams could revisit the scenario this winter.
- “No great offers” emerged last winter for Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, according to the report. But Colorado may be wise to shop him again in a few months, Heyman writes, as the team’s glut of left-handed-hitting outfielders could represent an opportunity to improve in other areas. Gonzalez is hitting a productive .300/.350/.523, even if it is aided by playing at Coors Field, and is owed a reasonable $37MM over the next two seasons. It’s worth noting, too, that the club could potentially not only turn that contract into some intriguing, younger assets, but would also free up a good bit of payroll space to deploy on the open market.
- The upcoming market for free agents is obviously short on star power, but Heyman provides some preliminary guesses on the contracts for the top players. He suggests four years and $100MM for Yoenis Cespedes of the Mets as the biggest deal that could be had (assuming, as seems likely, that he’ll opt out of his deal). From my perspective, another star campaign from Cespedes has likely boosted his market beyond that level. The Cuban slugger rates as the top overall free agent on the free agent power ranking of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes.
- Edwin Encarnacion of the Blue Jays is fourth on Dierkes’s most recent list — he rates Aroldis Chapman and Jansen higher — while Heyman rates him second to Cespedes. But the veteran slugger is headed for a monster contract regardless, and Heyman notes that the continued belief around the game is that Toronto won’t extend itself to retain him. Instead, the Jays seem to be angling to put together a younger roster.
- Whether Blue Jays skipper John Gibbons is interested in staying on with more change possibly afoot remains to be seen, but Heyman says that the club has been impressed with his work. An internal team source suggests that the team will attempt to retain him — at least as long as a postseason berth is secured — and sources with ties to the skipper say that he likely prefers to stick in the position rather than hunting for another opportunity elsewhere.
- Carlos Santana is highly likely to return to the Indians, per the report. His $12MM club option is a “no-brainer” for the club, a source says. The 30-year-old never seemed very likely to be allowed to test the market: he carries a .243/.353/.471 batting line with 31 long balls and has struck out only one time more than he has walked thus far in 2016.
- The Red Sox are expected to pursue relief help on the upcoming free agent market, Heyman says. That’s not surprising to hear, of course, as depth and quality have both been in question at times and the team is set to watch pitchers such as Brad Ziegler, Koji Uehara, and Junichi Tazawa depart via free agency.
- With a group of talented, high-performing players on hand, the Mariners are “talking behind the scenes” about taking advantage of a window of contention, according to Heyman. That could position the club to strike out on the free agent market in search of a “complementary piece,” he says. There are several areas the team could target, but I wonder whether the time may be right to add a slugging first baseman; there are several available, and the team is set to lose its primary tandem of Adam Lind and Dae-ho Lee to free agency.