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2016 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s noon deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

As MLBTR has previously explained, 156 players officially filed for arbitration (after some eligible and tendered players had already reached agreement). Of those, 34 players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still reach agreements before their hearings (which will take place between February 1st and 21st). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint.

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining — those where the player files for at least $4.5MM — in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker (with two as-yet-unreported exceptions).

Blue Jays, Drew Storen Avoid Arbitration

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The Blue Jays and newly acquired closer Drew Storen have agreed to terms on a one-year, $8.375MM contract, thereby avoiding arbitration, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter link). Toronto picked up Storen, a CAA client, in a swap that sent Ben Revere to the Nationals. His salary is a little less than five percent shy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projection.

Storen, 28, should anchor the Toronto bullpen this season — his final year before becoming eligible for free agency. The former first-round pick spent much of the 2015 season as Washington’s closer but accepted a demotion to a setup role when the team acquired Jonathan Papelbon. Storen recorded a 3.44 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 with 29 saves in 55 innings in his final year with the Nationals.

Blue Jays Have Had Recent Contact With Gallardo’s Camp

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JAN. 15: Contact between the two sides has been “minimal” to this point, tweets SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo. There is, of course, the possibility that talks will pick up steam in the days/weeks to come.

JAN. 14: The Blue Jays have carried interest in right-hander Yovani Gallardo throughout free agency, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (Twitter link), and the team has been in contact with Gallardo’s camp this week, he adds. As Nicholson-Smith further tweets, club president Mark Shapiro said just yesterday that Gallardo is “the kind of guy” that could help Toronto, although as Nicholson-Smith also notes, questions remain about the Jays’ willingness to spend and to part with the necessary draft pick to sign Gallardo.

For context, Shapiro’s exact words when asked about Gallardo (in an appearance with Bob McCown and Arash Madani on 590 The Fan) were as follows: “He’s the kind of guy that would make us better. He’s the kind of guy you’d like to have. Whether or not, from a resource perspective, we still have enough to make a move like that — that’s still a variable that exists, but we do have some flexibility still. Thinking about how we use those resources is still a question.” Asked about the draft pick attached to Gallardo, Shapiro said it is indeed a factor, but not one that would immediately close the door on a deal. Shapiro called the draft pick forfeiture a “premium you’re paying on top of the salary.”

While Shapiro is understandably vague when prompted about Gallardo specifically, it’s telling that the Jays have at least reached out to his representatives at Octagon quite recently. Toronto would seem to have a somewhat full rotation picture, on paper, though as Shapiro noted in the interview, a team is fortunate if it can get through a 162-game season only needing to rely on seven or eight starters, adding that often, more arms are necessary. So, while R.A. Dickey, Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Jesse Chavez and Drew Hutchison are all in the mix– to say nothing of Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna, who spent 2015 in the bullpen but were starters in the minors — there’s certainly room for more.

The question, then, as both Nicholson-Smith and Shapiro implied, is where exactly Gallardo’s asking price lies at this juncture. Toronto already has $95.75MM committed to the 2016 payroll, and that doesn’t include what currently projects to be Major League Baseball’s third-most expensive class of arbitration eligible players. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegged the Blue Jays’ arb class at $36MM in combined salaries — much of that coming from Josh Donaldson and newly acquired Drew Storen. And, while the Jays are reportedly receiving some cash considerations in the Storen trade as a means to offset the difference between his salary and that of Ben Revere, that sum shouldn’t total much more than $2MM (by MLBTR projections, it’d be $2.1MM). Those sums alone would bring Toronto to around $129.6MM in total payroll, not including league-minimum players to round out the roster and other expenses. It’s not unreasonable, then, to envision a scenario where the roster, as currently constructed, approaches or equals last year’s end-of-season payroll of $135MM.

As a result, the Blue Jays might need to get a bit creative if they’re to bring Gallardo into the fold. A backloaded contract would be one means of limiting the strain on 2016 payroll, and trading away another piece with a guaranteed salary or a notable arbitration projection could be another means of fitting Gallardo into the 2016 budget.

Of course, the Blue Jays will have competition for Gallardo’s services. The right-hander is one of the more desirable arms left on the free-agent market and has been connected to clubs such as the Royals, Orioles and Astros of late, although Jon Heyman reported yesterday (Twitter link) that the Astros were more focused on Ian Kennedy, leaving the Orioles and Royals as Gallardo’s primary suitors at the moment. While there’s no way to gauge the extent of Toronto’s interest, and the draft pick forfeiture/salary requirements do seem to make the Blue Jays a long shot, they seemingly must at least be considered on the periphery of the Gallardo market for the time being.

Blue Jays Notes: Dickey, Storen, Revere

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While the Blue Jays have lost David Price and some other key parts of their division-winning team, CBS Sports’ Dayn Perry notes that the Jays will receive two significant roster upgrades in 2016 in the form of Troy Tulowitzki and Marcus Stroman playing full seasons in Toronto.  Tulowitzki, of course, didn’t join the Jays until the trade deadline and also missed half of September recovering from a cracked shoulder blade.  Stroman missed almost all of 2015 after a Spring Training ACL tear before returning in September to make some key starts down the stretch and in the postseason.  Here’s some more from Toronto…

  • Since the 2016-17 free agent market is looking thin, ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required) writes that a larger-than-usual number of star players could become trade targets this summer.  If the Jays are struggling at midseason, some executives see them as seller candidates given that Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Brett Cecil are entering their last season under contract.  It’s even possible the Jays could see what they could get for Tulowitzki or AL MVP Josh Donaldson.  Any deals of this nature, however, “would be a really tough sell” for the club given how ownership and the Mark Shapiro-led front office has already faced criticism from fans in the wake of Alex Anthopoulos’ departure.
  • Also from Olney’s column, he doubts the Blue Jays would get an acceptable return in an R.A. Dickey trade.  Dickey is entering his age-41 season, is only under contract for 2016 and earns $12MM, so Olney doesn’t think a trade partner would be willing to give much up for Dickey with so many other pitching options available in free agency or on the trade market.
  • The Drew Storen-for-Ben Revere trade was a old-fashioned type of deal, MLB.com’s Tracy Ringolsby writes.  The Jays and Nationals are both contenders who had a surplus at the other team’s position of need, and the result was a relatively straight-forward one-for-one swap (with some extra money and a player to be named later also involved).
  • In other Jays news from earlier today, GM Ross Atkins addressed the Dickey rumors, bullpen usage and extensions for Bautista and Encarnacion during an MLB Network Radio interview.

AL East Notes: Encarnacion, Bautista, Rays, Bundy, Yankees

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Several executives appeared on MLB Network Radio with Jim Bowden today including Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins and Rays president of baseball operation Matt Silverman. Atkins spoke on a number of subjects (tweets 1, 2, 3, 4) including the roles of prospects Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna. Both have succeeded in the bullpen, and the Jays “want to stay flexible. We don’t want to paint ourselves into a corner, just increase depth.” It’s been speculated that one or both pitchers could be converted back to the rotation – possibly in the minors.

Here’s more from the radio show and around the division:

  • Atkins has met with Edwin Encarnacion and plans to meet with Jose Bautista next week to discuss contract extensions. No offers have been made. Both sluggers are in the final year of their respective contracts. Encarnacion, 33, will earn $10MM in 2016 while Bautista, 35, will take home $14MM. Despite being on the wrong side of 30, they are in line for large raises.
  • Atkins also addressed rumors regarding R.A. Dickey. We’re “not actively shopping him,” per Atkins. As is the policy with most players, the club will listen to offers. Given that the rotation isn’t exactly a strong suit for the Blue Jays, I figure the club would have to be on the verge of signing a free agent like Wei-Yin Chen or Yovani Gallardo if they’re seriously considering a Dickey swap.
  • Moving onto the Rays, the club is hopeful a vote next week could free them up to look at stadium sites in Tampa Bay and St. Petersburg (tweet). Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times has more specific details of the proposal if you’re interested. Relocation negotiations with St. Petersburg have long clouded the Rays economic future.
  • Silverman confirmed that the Rays have talked frequently with the Cubs (tweet). “We know we line up really well with them given our depth and strengths.” Earlier this winter, we heard rumors of Chicago interest in starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi. The Rays were said to be interested in infielder Javier Baez.
  • While Tampa Bay will entertain offers for their relievers, “they are a big part of our club.” Last season, the Rays maximized the performances of pitchers like Erasmo Ramirez and Nate Karns by turning to the bullpen early in their starts. The club could look to leverage their relievers in a similar way this season. As such, Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger may stay put.
  • The health of Orioles prospect Dylan Bundy will be one of the top stories in their upcoming minicamp, writes Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun. Bundy has spent most of the last three seasons on the disabled list after making two relief appearances in 2012. As such, he’s out of options but hasn’t had an opportunity to develop over the last three campaigns. In many ways, he resembles a Rule 5 pick.
  • Should the Orioles consider forfeiting their 14th overall pick to sign Justin Upton or Gallardo, wonders Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports. He takes a look at 14th picks back through 1990. The finding: there are some big hits and misses (this is true of all picks in the middle of the first round). In the case of signing Upton, it’s a lot easier to justify discarding a long term draft asset. Kubatko would want Gallardo to ink a three-year deal in order to part with the pick.
  • The Yankees have two spots left on the 40-man roster and a couple ways to fill them, writes Ryan Hatch of NJ.com. As he notes, a splashy trade is possible. However, I agree that it’s more likely the club targets another backup infielder to provide depth up the middle or a pitcher to compete for a middle relief role.

Cafardo’s Latest: Ramirez, Upton, Gallardo, Chen, Ozuna

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With the recent Hall of Fame voting out of the way, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe looks at the case for former Red Sox star Manny Ramirez. Obviously, his offensive performance was magnificent, although lousy defense sapped his overall value. With confirmed PED violations after the so-called Steroid Era, voters may find it hard to select Ramirez. He also had a prickly reputation with the phrase “Manny being Manny” coming to represent his often oblivious frame of mind.

Here’s more from Cafardo’s column:

  • The Red Sox could consider signing free agent outfielder Justin Upton. Club president Dave Dombrowski is comfortable with a starting outfield of Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, and Rusney Castillo, but there’s certainly risk involved with relying upon Bradley and Castillo. Either or both players could conceivably fail to produce at a league average rate. The Sox do have depth in the form of Chris Young, Brock Holt, and possibly Travis Shaw. However, Upton would give them a superstar presence in the middle of the lineup, and he won’t have the same difficulty in adjusting to left field as Hanley Ramirez.
  • Yovani Gallardo may be the next starting pitcher to sign. Scott Kazmir’s three-year, $48MM contract is a potential comparable. The teams involved in his market are hoping for a bargain on a two- or three-year contract, per Cafardo. He sees the Orioles, Blue Jays, Pirates, Royals, and Cubs as the best fits.
  • Fellow free agent starter Wei-Yin Chen has scared some teams away with a five-year, $100MM asking price. The Nationals and Cardinals “have taken a good hard look.” Chen, 30, can point to success in the always difficult AL East as justification for a nine-figure asking price.
  • Ten teams have inquired about Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna, but Miami coaches Barry Bonds and Don Mattingly are campaigning to keep Ozuna. They believe they can shape Ozuna into a star player. While owner Jeffrey Loria is said to be the impetus behind the club’s attempts to trade Ozuna, it’s also plausible he would defer to his newly hired, high profile personnel.
  • Some scouts still think there’s something left in Ike Davis’ tank. The Mets’ former top prospect has played for three teams over the last two seasons with exactly zero WAR in 666 plate appearances. Davis will likely sign a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training.
  • The Tigers and Mets are monitoring the market for Yoenis Cespedes. Based on Cafardo’s report, it sounds like both clubs hope to pounce if a strong suitor doesn’t emerge.
  • Meanwhile, Dexter Fowler could end up as a bargain. Cafardo predicts a three-year contract below the $31MM signed by Denard Span. He suggests the Rockies (if they make a trade) and Tigers as possible fits. Personally, I disagree with the valuation on Fowler. Like Span, he has a history as a high OBP, top-of-the-order hitter. The draft pick compensation tied to him is a deterrent, but he’s been much healthier than Span in recent seasons.
  • Talks between Chris Davis and the Orioles may have a drop-dead date. While the Orioles prefer a big left-handed bat, they may dip into the market for Upton or Cespedes. Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is also a potential fit.

AL East Notes: Storen, Blue Jays, Red Sox

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On Sunday morning, Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com attempted to put together a list of the 15 best position players in Orioles history. The task, he says, was even more challenging than when he ran down Baltimore’s top ten pitchers of all-time. Matt Wieters, who accepted the O’s qualifying offer this winter, earned a spot at catcher alongside Gus Triandos, a three-time All-Star in the late 50s and early 60s. Another current-day star, Chris Davis, only earned honorable mention at first base as he was situated behind Eddie Murray and Boog Powell. Davis has led the majors in home runs two of the last three years, but Dubroff says that “Murray’s excellence and Powell’s longevity force the issue.”

Here’s more out of the AL East:

  • The Blue Jays’ acquisition of Drew Storen creates healthy set of roster options, John Lott of the National Post writes. Meanwhile, it doesn’t seem like Toronto’s new regime is done dealing. The Ben Revere–for-Storen swap marks the first major trade by Mark Shapiro & Co., but new GM Ross Atkins indicated that the team has had “hundreds” of discussions with clubs about potential deals.  All told, Storen owns a 3.02 ERA in his 334 big league frames. He’s struck out an average of 8.6 and walked 2.6 batters per nine for his career, but his K rate jumped significantly last season.
  • Major league teams continue to spend big in free agency, despite evidence that it is not necessarily working, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes.  While the Red Sox are doing cartwheels about signing David Price to a mammoth $217MM deal this winter, MacPherson rightfully points out that Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval seemed like wise moves just a year ago.  Now, Boston is saddled with both players at a combined $183MM after a disappointing 2015.
  • Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com weighed the pros and cons of the Orioles losing their No. 14 pick to sign a free agent who would require draft pick compensation.

AL East Notes: Sanchez, Osuna, Gardner, Miller, Nova

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The Blue Jays addition of Drew Storen will give the club the opportunity to stretch out Aaron Sanchez or Roberto Osuna as a starter, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. Toronto turned to both Sanchez and Osuna as relievers out of necessity in 2015, but they have previously been viewed as starting pitcher prospects. As GM Ross Atkins notes, there aren’t many success stories of players transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation (Carlos Carrasco comes to mind). Atkins hypothesizes that differences in how pitches are used and developed in a one-inning role are to be blamed. While Storen does give the Blue Jays some depth in the bullpen, they probably can’t afford to remove both Sanchez and Osuna from the bullpen.

Here’s more from Toronto and their division rival Yankees:

  • Even after adding Storen, Atkins continues to hunt for help in the bullpen and elsewhere on the roster, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca. “We haven’t let up for one second,” said Atkins. Acquiring additional bullpen depth would make it easier for the club to move one or both of Sanchez and Osuna out of the major league bullpen. They were linked to Fernando Rodney prior to the Storen trade.
  • Chad Jennings of LoHud profiles three Yankees who have spent the offseason on the trade block. New York wanted to trade outfielder Brett Gardner for starting pitching. Gardner’s role with the club is largely redundant. However, the exorbitant price of pitching and slow developing free agent outfield market have made it difficult for GM Brian Cashman to line up a trade. Jennings figures the Yankees should hang onto Gardner unless he can return a “good, cost-controlled starter.”
  • After high profile trades involving Craig Kimbrel and Ken Giles, the Yankees had some hope of receiving starting pitcher reinforcements for Andrew Miller. At this point, it appears as if the demand for elite closers via trade consisted of just two teams. While Kimbrel and Giles were dealt mostly for prospects, the Yankees had more interest in established talent. To me, this smells like a doomed proposition. Any team willing to pay top dollar for elite relief probably doesn’t want to trade away quality starting pitching. Now that the Yankees have added Aroldis Chapman, the plan may be to simply survive the early innings and let the bullpen slam the door. As such, Miller will probably stay put.
  • The Yankees have also shopped Ivan Nova without finding a match. Nova is coming off a lousy, injury-addled season in which he posted a 5.08 ERA in 94 innings. He’s also in his final season of club control. Jennings views Nova as the best sixth starter on the roster, making him valuable depth. However, Jennings would happily trade Nova with a second player for a better pitcher.

Free Agent Notes: Rodney, Fowler, Davis

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Here are the latest free agent rumors:

  • The Diamondbacks have not been in contact with free agent reliever Fernando Rodney, writes Jack Magruder of Fanragsports.com. A previous report had tied Rodney to the DBacks, Padres, Blue Jays, and Cubs. Since then, we’ve also learned the Padres are out. Presumably, Toronto’s interest ceased when they acquired Drew Storen from the Nationals. After a late-season renaissance with the Cubs, Rodney should still garner plenty of interest as teams nail down the final components of their bullpen. Meanwhile, Arizona may opt to rely on their wealth of internal options headlined by Brad Ziegler and Daniel Hudson.
  • Dexter Fowler’s market has been slow to develop, writes Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago. The center fielder is coming off his best season to date, although his OBP declined below his career average. Among contenders, Levine figures that only the Rangers, Mariners, Indians, White Sox, and Cubs are a fit (he also lists the Nationals, but the Ben Revere trade likely nullifies that pick). Both Chicago clubs could benefit from installing Fowler in center field. A reunion with the Cubs would require a trade of right fielder Jorge Soler – probably for high quality pitching – and it would allow Jason Heyward to return to his natural position of right field. Levine also figures that White Sox outfielder Adam Eaton is better suited for a corner outfield role.
  • The Orioles have not made any progress in talks with free agent Chris Davis, writes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. Baltimore made a seven-year, $150MM offer earlier in the offseason and has seen no reason to submit a higher bid. While agent Scott Boras is selling Davis as an outfield option, Encina views him purely as a first baseman. To this point, no other serious suitors have emerged for Davis. Encina also cites reports that the Orioles are in on pitcher Yovani Gallardo, but those talks may depend on Davis.

Rosenthal On Chen, Marlins, Dickey, Lucroy

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Here’s the latest from FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal:

  • The Marlins have interest in Wei-Yin Chen despite owner Jeffrey Loria’s previous disagreements with Chen’s agent Scott Boras, Rosenthal writes. Chen’s cost could be an issue for the Marlins, but the Fish need a starter and have a protected first-round pick, and Rosenthal writes that Loria wants to make the team “as competitive as possible” for Don Mattingly’s first season as manager. As Rosenthal notes, Chen is the best free agent starting pitcher left on the market.
  • A report today indicated the Blue Jays could trade R.A. Dickey, but the Jays have not yet had discussions about that, and sources tell Rosenthal the Jays might be disinclined to deal Dickey because of the reliable innings he provides. The Jays’ series of going-for-it trades last year depleted their pitching depth (with Daniel Norris, Jeff Hoffman and others heading elsewhere), but a starter like Dickey who’s capable of pitching 200-plus innings can help them paper that over.
  • The Brewers continue to discuss trades involving catcher Jonathan Lucroy, Rosenthal writes. Lucroy isn’t coming off his best season, but his highly favorable contract (in which he’ll receive just $4MM in 2016 and $5.25MM or a $250K buyout in 2017) still makes him an attractive trade target. The Brewers could be inclined to trade Lucroy sooner rather than later, since the difficulty of learning to work with a new group of pitchers makes it tricky for catchers to go from team to team once a season has already begun.
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