Uncategorized News & Rumors

Jorge Posada, Orlando Cabrera, Craig Counsell, and Adam Everett retired this offseason, as MLBTR's free agent tracker shows.  Which other unsigned free agents may be leaning toward calling it a career?

• Milton Bradley: The Mariners released him on May 16th, and we haven't heard anything since aside from off-the-field issues.  I've heard that while he has not retired, as of now it does not look like Bradley will play in 2012.
• J.D. Drew: About a week ago, Jon Heyman wrote that Drew is "very likely to retire."
• Jason Kendall: In July, we learned that Kendall was out of the picture for 2012 after re-tearing two tendons in his right rotator cuff.  Kendall's career might be over, wrote Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe at the time.
• Derrek Lee: This month Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggested a kind of "forced retirement" is possible for Lee, who has reportedly been picky so far this offseason.
• Jason Varitek: The catcher is mulling retirement, wrote Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald this month.
• Javier Vazquez: Reports this month continue to indicate that Vazquez will retire.  The 35-year-old would be finishing on a high note.
• Tim Wakefield: He told John A. Torres of Florida Today that retirement is possible, though the knuckleballer hopes to return to the Red Sox.

When the offseason started, there were approximately 196 arbitration-eligible players left unsigned. The vast majority of those players have since agreed to contracts for 2012 (and beyond in some cases), but a number of high profile players remain unsigned. With some help from our Arbitration Tracker, here are the unsigned arbitration-eligible players asking their teams for at least $5MM next season…

• David Ortiz filed for $16.5MM, the Red Sox countered with $12.65MM.
• Matt Garza filed for $12.5MM, the Cubs countered with $7.95MM.
• Mike Napoli filed for $11.5MM, the Rangers countered with $8.3MM.
• Jeremy Guthrie filed for $10.25MM, the Orioles countered with $7.25MM.
• Clayton Kershaw filed for $10MM, the Dodgers countered with $6.5MM.
• Shaun Marcum filed for $8.7MM, the Brewers countered with $6.75MM.
• Anibal Sanchez filed for $8MM, the Marlins countered with $6.9MM.
• Nelson Cruz filed for $7.5MM, the Rangers countered with $5.5MM.
• Adam Jones filed for $7.4MM, the Orioles countered with $5MM.
• Miguel Montero filed for $6.8MM, the Diamondbacks countered with $5.4MM.
• John Lannan filed for $5.7MM, the Nationals countered with $5MM.
• Alex Gordon filed for $5.45MM, the Royals countered with $4.15MM.
• Asdrubal Cabrera filed for $5.2MM, the Indians countered with $3.75MM.

Garza, Napoli, Kershaw, Jones, Montero, and Gordon and prime candidates for a multi-year extension that buys out both arbitration and free agent years. Hearings will begin next month, though agreements of any size can be reached at any time.

Contract extensions, especially for arbitration eligible players, are all about comparables.  Position and service time are a couple of major factors for which players are often compared.  This kind of research was previously a tall order for those not employed by a team or agency, but MLBTR's new extension tracker removes the hassle.

The extension tracker shows all contract extensions, whether they cover the player's arbitration years, free agent years, or both.   All the extensions are listed by date, and our filter button allows you to change the date range.  You can also filter by any combination of team, position, guaranteed years, amount in millions, number of options, service time, super two status, and agency.  The service time filtering allows you to choose one or both boundaries of a range.  Service time is denoted as years.days, so 4.148 means four years and 148 days.  A full year of service is 172 days.  The player name is hyperlinked to MLBTR's post on the story of the extension.

Please note that some of the data prior to 2011 is still in the process of being added, such as service time, position, and number of options.

The extension tracker can be found under the Tools menu in the navigation bar up top, along with our 2012 free agent tracker, arbitration tracker, agency database,  transaction tracker, and other features.

Arbitration eligible players may not get paid like free agents Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, but the arbitration process can be lucrative, too. Many players have already doubled or tripled their 2011 salaries through arbitration and some of the unsigned arbitration eligible players are set to do the same in the coming weeks, as our Arbitration Tracker shows.

Here’s a list of the 20 arbitration eligible players who will earn the most in 2012. I’ve included 2012 salaries on long-term extensions signed this offseason and listed team submissions for unresolved arbitration cases, since that represents a floor for each player's earnings. Players with six-plus years of service time, such as David Ortiz and Francisco Rodriguez aren’t included. Here’s the list:

1. Tim Lincecum – $18MM (part of an extension)
2. Cole Hamels – $15MM
3. Andre Ethier – $10.95MM
4. Hunter Pence - $10.4MM
5. Matt Kemp – $10MM (part of an extension)
6. Mike Napoli – $8.3MM (minimum salary possible via arbitration)
7. Jacoby Ellsbury – $8.05MM
8. John Danks – $8MM (part of an extension, including signing bonus)
9. Matt Garza – $7.95MM (minimum salary possible via arbitration)
10. Russell Martin – $7.5MM
11. Jeremy Guthrie – $7.25MM (minimum salary possible via arbitration)
12. Carlos Quentin – $7.025MM
13. B.J. Upton – $7MM
14. Anibal Sanchez – $6.9MM (minimum salary possible via arbitration)
15. Michael Bourn – $6.845MM
16. Delmon Young – $6.75MM
17. Shaun Marcum – $6.75MM (minimum salary possible via arbitration)
18. Clayton Kershaw – $6.5MM (minimum salary possible via arbitration)
19. James Loney – $6.375MM
20. Melky Cabrera and Juan Carlos Oviedo - $6MM

When baseball's players and owners announced the new collective bargaining agreement in November, they introduced dozens of changes to the game, including one that mattered a great deal to a subset of free agents. Beginning in the 1980s, teams had to surrender draft picks to sign Type A free agents who rejected offers of arbitration from their former teams. This penalty made it difficult for many non-elite Type A players to generate interest, seams teams were hesitant to surrender a draft pick for anything less than a star.

For the 2011-12 offseason, players and owners agreed to modify the procedure for Type A free agents. The sides determined that teams should only surrender picks for the best free agents, and that it should no longer cost draft picks to sign 11 Type A players. Here's a look at how those 11 players fared this offseason, when their leverage wasn't diminished by their Type A ranking (players sorted by guaranteed conract value):

• Michael Cuddyer – three years, $31.5MM
• Heath Bell – three years, $27MM
• Josh Willingham – three years, $21MM
• Ryan Madson - one year, $8.25MM
• Francisco Rodriguez – one year, $8MM via arbitration
• Ramon Hernandez – two years, $6.4MM
• Kelly Johnson – one year, $6.375MM via arbitration
• Matt Capps – one year, $4.75MM 
• Darren Oliver – one year, $4.5MM
• Francisco Cordero – one year, $4.5MM
• Octavio Dotel – one year, $3.5MM

While it's impossible to know how this group would have done if the players above had been tied to draft pick compensation, it's safe to assume they wouldn't have done any better (no team wants to surrender draft picks). In previous offseasons, someone like Dotel might have still have been waiting for a job at this point in the winter. I believe the procedural changes provided these 11 players with additional leverage and, as a result, more guaranteed money.

My fantasy baseball website RotoAuthority is back in action with a team of excellent writers.  The latest:

• Catcher rankings by Mike Axisa.
• Overrated starting pitchers from Tom Warman.
• A look at the Yankees' fifth starter situation from Mark Polishuk.
• The potential fantasy impact of Yu Darvish, from Alex Steers McCrum.
• The Mets' Jonathon Niese is underrated and the Tigers' Justin Verlander is overrated in fantasy drafts, writes Dan Mennella.
• The transcript of Thursday's chat with Steve Adams.

The Tigers committed $214MM to sign Prince Fielder yesterday afternoon, but that's not all they gave up — the Brewers will obtain Detroit's first round pick in the upcoming amateur draft. Here's the complete list of players who cost their new teams draft picks this offseason:

• Albert Pujols – Angels lose 19th overall pick to Cardinals, who also obtain a supplementary first rounder
• Prince Fielder - Tigers lose 27th overall pick to Brewers, who also obtain a supplementary first rounder
• Jonathan Papelbon - Phillies lose 31st overall pick to Red Sox, who also obtain a supplementary first rounder
• Jose Reyes – Marlins lose 67th overall pick to Mets, who also obtain a supplementary first rounder
• C.J. Wilson – Angels lose 78th overall pick to Rangers, who also obtain a supplementary first rounder

In previous years, middle relievers and second-tier free agents such as Juan Cruz cost draft picks. This limited their employment prospects considerably, but the Players Association pushed for changes in negotiations leading up to the collective bargaining agreement, and teams no longer surrender picks for as many free agents. As a result Matt Capps, Octavio Dotel, Darren Oliver and others faced one less obstacle this offseason.

One year ago, under the previous CBA, teams gave up picks to sign Victor Martinez, Adam Dunn, Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, Scott Downs, Cliff Lee, Adrian Beltre, Grant Balfour and Rafael Soriano. Two years ago, teams gave up picks to sign Jose Valverde, Jason Bay, Mike Gonzalez, John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Marco Scutaro and Billy Wagner.

Next offseason, teams will only offer players arbitration if they're prepared to pay a one-year salary that matches or exceeds the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players from the previous season (likely more than $12MM).

Draft order via River Ave. Blues.

The Rays designated outfielder Justin Ruggiano for assignment to create roster space for Carlos Pena, the Tampa Tribune tweets. The team's 40-man roster remains full.

Ruggiano appeared in 46 games for the Rays last year, playing all three outfield positions. The 29-year-old posted a .248/.273/.400 line in 111 plate appearances. Ruggiano, who also played for the Rays in 2007-08, is not yet arbitration eligible.

MLBTR's Arbitration Tracker already shows submissions from players and teams, midpoints and settlement amounts. The tracker can also filter by team and whether a hearing occurred. Today we're introducing three new features:

• Service time data appears for all eligible players.
• All of this year's super two players are now noted.
• When you filter by team, you can see the total that the team will pay to retain the players who have already settled.

Matt Swartz has projected salaries for all of these players exclusively for MLBTR.

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