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Top Ten Remaining Free Agents
Prince Fielder headlines a handful of high-profile Scott Boras clients who remain available in free agency, but most of the offseason’s top free agents have signed contracts by now. Here’s a look at possible suitors for the top ten remaining free agents (ranking on MLBTR’s list of top 2012 free agents in parentheses):
- Prince Fielder (2) – Fielder will sign before Spring Training and the Nationals are among the teams with interest. Boras, who seeks a long-term deal for Fielder, is currently in Phoenix working to sell MLB owners on the first baseman.
- Edwin Jackson (6) – The Yankees and Orioles have been linked to the right-handed Boras client, but the Yankees are said to be reluctant to commit to a long-term contract.
- Hiroki Kuroda (15) – The Yankees and Red Sox have some interest in Kuroda, who will pitch in MLB in 2012. The Rockies had some interest, but they aren’t likely to meet Kuroda's asking price.
- Carlos Pena (16) – The Indians, Rays and Pirates seem like potential destinations for Pena, another Boras client.
- Roy Oswalt (18) – The Red Sox have some interest in Oswalt, who seeks a one-year deal.
- Javier Vazquez (19) – It still seems likely that the durable right-hander will retire.
- Bartolo Colon (27) – The market for Colon has been surprisingly quiet, as Mike Axisa explained at River Ave. Blues this morning.
- Jeff Francis (32) – The Mariners and Pirates were among the teams linked to Francis earlier in the offseason.
- Casey Kotchman (36) – Like Pena, Kotchman could be a fit for the Indians, Rays or Pirates.
- Johnny Damon (39) – Could the Athletics or Orioles offer Damon an everyday job as he continues to approach the 3,000 hit plateau?
- Honorable mentions – Joe Saunders (non-tendered by the Diamondbacks in December) and Yoenis Cespedes (not yet officially a free agent).
Juan Pierre, Joel Pineiro and Kerry Wood are the only other unsigned players who made MLBTR’s list of top free agents. At this point last year, 11 of MLBTR's top 50 free agents remained unsigned.
Android App Now Available
Our Android app is now available in the marketplace! It costs $2.99 and is called Baseball Trade Rumors. The app's features:
- Select only the players or teams you want, and receive a notification for every related new rumor
- Be the first to know about any official trade or free agent signing with our Transaction notifications
- Filter the main news page to show rumors for one specific team, or only the transactions
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- Android 2.1 and up required
Regular MLBTR Features
If you're a regular MLBTR reader, you'll be familiar with our chats, our Week In Review posts and Mike Axisa's Baseball Blogs Weigh In feature. Here's some more detail on when you'll see our weekly features and exactly what to expect from them:
- MLBTR Chats - Come by every Wednesday at 2pm CDT to chat about the latest trades, signings and rumblings around the Major Leagues.
- Baseball Blogs Weigh In - Every Friday morning, Mike Axisa directs you to some of the best writing on baseball blogs around the web. Whether it's opinion, stats or something else entirely, you can connect to the best of the blogosphere once a week on MLBTR. If you want to send Mike a post of yours, reach him at: mike@riveraveblues.com.
- Week In Review - It's remarkable how much happens in seven days. Every Sunday night, we summarize the week's biggest stories in our Week In Review posts.
- MLBTR Originals - We gather all our original analysis and reporting in one place every Sunday night.
Fewer Multiyear Deals For Free Agent Relievers
Last offseason was a good time to be a free agent relief pitcher — 17 relievers from D.J. Carrasco to Rafael Soriano signed multiyear deals. As MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker shows, teams spent a total of $202.6MM on multiyear deals for relievers a year ago.
Jonathan Papelbon, Ryan Madson, Joe Nathan, Francisco Cordero and Heath Bell led an unusually strong class of free agent closers this offseason, so many, myself included, assumed the lavish spending would continue. Yet MLB teams have locked just five relievers up on multiyear deals to this point in the winter. The total cost of $112.25MM falls short of last offseason’s total by $90MM.
Madson, Cordero and Kerry Wood are among the remaining free agent relievers who have cases for multiyear deals, so the complete totals aren’t in just yet. But it appears that last offseason was a more lucrative environment for relief pitchers.
To determine why teams are making fewer long-term commitments to relievers, I asked a number of agents for their thoughts. First of all, it makes sense to look beyond the relievers themselves to the front office executives making the contract offers. There's been substantial general manager turnover around the league this offseason, and I wonder if some GMs have been reluctant to introduce themselves to their respective fan bases by committing substantial dollars to one of baseball's least predictable, most replaceable assets and making an early faux pas in the eyes of many fans and pundits.
It’s worth noting that the five executives who signed relievers to multiyear deals this offseason are established in their roles. Sandy Alderson, Brian Sabean, Larry Beinfest, Jon Daniels and Ruben Amaro Jr. have each led at least one team to the World Series, so they've earned leeway that others might not yet have.
The Rays, Braves and Cardinals have constructed successful, relatively cheap bullpens in recent years, so other clubs may be taking note. Why pay a premium for saves when a groundballer like Luis Ayala, a durable arm like Todd Coffey or a flame-thrower like Joel Zumaya is available more affordably?
Let's not forget about the impact the Yankees and Red Sox have on free agent spending. When every team knows they're shopping, the market does things it wouldn’t ordinarily do and there are consequences throughout the game. But the AL East rivals have been quiet this offseason, and not just in terms of relievers. 2013 free agents such as Brandon League and Francisco Rodriguez are presumably hoping the Yankees and Red Sox spend more freely next offseason, even if they have no intention of signing with either team.
Potential Teams For Remaining Designated Hitters
Johnny Damon, Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui, Magglio Ordonez and Luke Scott highlight the list of unsigned designated hitters. Jorge Posada and Manny Ramirez are also out there and Bobby Abreu and Alfonso Soriano could become available in trades. Some would say free agent first baseman Prince Fielder is well on his way to becoming a DH, but he’ll presumably sign as a first baseman.
The market for designated hitters tends to favor buyers and this year is no exception. Here's a look at the American League teams with possible DH openings:
- Rays – When the offseason began, Andrew Friedman spoke about his intention to add offense without sacrificing defense. The Rays have an opening at DH, the one spot in the lineup where defense doesn't matter at all. The Rays will likely add a bat or two before Opening Day, perhaps a DH.
- Blue Jays – Edwin Encarnacion finished the 2011 season strong and projects as the Blue Jays' DH heading into 2012.
- Orioles – The Orioles appear to have expressed some interest Soriano and Scott, which shows they're open to a DH-type acquisition.
- Twins – The Twins no longer have Jim Thome, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Delmon Young around, but Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit could be in the DH mix in 2012. It'd be a surprise if they add a high-profile DH.
- Athletics – Brandon Allen, Daric Barton, Chris Carter and Kila Ka'aihue figure to compete for playing time at first base and could enter the DH mix. Oakland hasn’t been a top destination for free agent bats in recent years, but agents for unsigned DHs may give Billy Beane a call to determine his interest in adding a hitter.
- Mariners – The Mariners don't have a fixture at DH. Left fielders Mike Carp and Casper Wells project as DH options for manager Eric Wedge.
Checking In On The First Base Market
Prince Fielder news and rumors will likely dominate the coming month at MLBTR, but only one team can sign the powerful 27-year-old. A number of other clubs will look to add second-tier first basemen, so it’s time to look beyond the highest profile free agent to some alternatives at first base and their potential suitors.
As MLBTR's Free Agent Tracker shows, Casey Kotchman, Derrek Lee and Carlos Pena are still available. Luke Scott and Jorge Posada could be options at first, though they've spent most of their respective careers at other positions. A number of backup types also remain unsigned. First base prospect Anthony Rizzo’s name is frequently floated in trade rumors and the Angels have a surplus of players at the position. Here’s a look at some teams that could still have interest in first basemen not named Fielder:
- Rays – The Rays have had a clear need for a first baseman since Kotchman hit free agency after the season. They could hunt for bargains, but Kotchman's .306/.378/.422 line won't be easy to duplicate.
- Blue Jays – Adam Lind hasn't posted an on-base percentage above .300 since his breakout 2009 season. Edwin Encarnacion provides the Blue Jays with depth and a threat against left-handed pitching.
- Indians – Matt LaPorta and Carlos Santana figure to get most of the playing time at first base, but at some point the 26-year-old LaPorta may run out of chances (.238/.304/.397 line as a Major Leaguer).
- Mariners – Like LaPorta, Justin Smoak joined his team in a midseason trade for a dominant left-handed starter. Smoak has a similarly unimpressive .227/.316/.385 line as a Major Leaguer, but he showed signs of promise toward the beginning of the 2011 campaign.
- Rangers – The Rangers say Mitch Moreland is their first baseman, despite his struggles against left-handed pitching.
- Athletics – Brandon Allen, Daric Barton, Kila Ka'aihue and Chris Carter are all options for the Athletics heading into 2012, but it would be an exaggeration to say they have an established first baseman.
- Nationals – Adam LaRoche figures to start at first unless the Nationals sign Fielder.
- Brewers – Mat Gamel hits minor league pitching (28 homers and a .310/.372/.540 line last year) and he may get his chance to stick in the big leagues in 2012.
- Cubs – Bryan LaHair posted a .331/.405/.664 line with 38 home runs at Triple-A in 2011. Theo Epstein sounds optimistic about the 29-year-old's ability to hit at the MLB level.
- Pirates – If the season opened today, Casey McGehee and Garrett Jones would likely be the Pirates' primary options at first.
- Astros – Like LaPorta and Smoak, Brett Wallace is a former top prospect who hasn't hit MLB pitching to this point in his career (.248/.323/.354 career line).
Teams Seeking Starting Pitching
A slew of unsigned starting pitchers remain on the free agent market, as well as several trade candidates. Which teams are or might be in the hunt?
- Orioles: With pitchers like Paul Maholm and Joe Saunders on the radar, the O's don't seem to be seeking high-end upgrades unless they are to trade Adam Jones.
- Red Sox: Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves could fill out Boston's rotation, though added depth beyond Carlos Silva might be nice.
- Yankees: The Yankees have a functional rotation now, but they could add Edwin Jackson's innings if the price is right.
- Blue Jays: The Blue Jays seem focused on adding a front-end starter if any.
- Tigers: GM Dave Dombrowski told Lynn Henning of the Detroit News that he was actively involved in talks for Gio Gonzalez. He said he did not offer Jacob Turner for Matt Garza, however, and seems to be in the market just for a swingman type.
- Royals: They've added Jonathan Sanchez and re-signed Bruce Chen, but also had interest in young, controllable starters Mat Latos and Gio Gonzalez.
- Athletics: The A's have plenty of young rotation depth, but I wouldn't be surprised if they add a cheap veteran to the mix.
- Mariners: The Mariners have a strong front three and immensely talented starters on the way, and will probably be done if they complete a deal with Hisashi Iwakuma.
- Marlins: The Marlins appear to be considering adding a front-end starter or else standing pat, as they've been linked to Gonzalez and Garza.
- Mets: It's easy to picture the Mets adding a veteran on a one-year deal.
- Cubs: The Cubs have enough arms to cobble together a rotation, but a free agent is possible, especially if they trade Garza without receiving an MLB-ready starter in return.
- Pirates: The Bucs are known to be prioritizing one more starter.
- Diamondbacks: They have internal options, but could bring in a veteran to compete for the fifth starter job.
- Rockies: The Rockies are looking to supplement their rotation with Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Francis, or Kevin Millwood, reportedly, and others are likely on the radar.
Arbitration Information
MLB Trade Rumors is the only website you need to track the progress of the 100+ arbitration eligible players this month, a list that includes Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Hunter Pence, Clayton Kershaw, and David Price. January 17th is a date to keep in mind; that is the deadline for players and teams to exchange salary figures. Important links:
- MLBTR's arbitration tracker, which shows all arbitration eligible players and their salary submissions, midpoints, and settlement amounts while allowing you to filter by team and signing/hearing status.
- Matt Swartz's projected 2012 salaries for all arbitration eligible players. You won't find anything else like this on the web.
- MLBTR's arbitration eligible series with breakdowns by team.
- Ben Nicholson-Smith's arbitration primer.
- Important arbitration-related dates.
The 6 Most Surprising Trades Of The Offseason
Every offseason has a few trades most people didn't see coming. Here are my picks so far:
- Reds acquire Mat Latos from Padres for Yonder Alonso, Edinson Volquez, Yasmani Grandal, and Brad Boxberger. The Reds have clearly been in the hunt for a front-of-the-rotation starter since last summer, but Latos' availability was surprising. Latos is a 24-year-old with a 3.37 career ERA and 93 mile per hour fastball, and he's under team control for four more seasons. He's the type of pitcher even non-contending teams are usually looking to acquire. As with the Rockies and Ubaldo Jimenez, perhaps Padres GM Josh Byrnes believed Latos was at peak value. Or maybe he just couldn't resist a chance to acquire the team's future first baseman, catcher, and closer, an intriguing wild card in Volquez, and the depth to move Anthony Rizzo to fill another need.
- Blue Jays acquire Sergio Santos from White Sox for Nestor Molina. Most assumed the White Sox would move some players close to free agency, but Santos recently signed a contract that allows team control through 2017. He won't see his first $4MM+ salary until 2015, and only then if the first of three club options is exercised. The arguments for trading Santos: relievers have short shelf lives, the White Sox had good bullpen depth, and a top closer is a luxury on a potentially rebuilding club. Still, it's surprising Molina was the sole return. Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein believes Molina projects as "a future No. 4 starter with some chances of being a three." The White Sox are banking on the righty to buck the industry opinion.
- Padres acquire Huston Street from Rockies for Nick Schmidt at $1MM, Padres acquire Carlos Quentin from White Sox for Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez. These two deals sandwiched the Padres' Latos trade and suggest a win-now mentality that doesn't mix with moving an ace. However, the commitments in prospects was minor for the Padres and both players are only under contract for one more year. Street and Quentin likely created surplus trade value for Byrnes, and the price for Quentin was surprisingly low. Plus, we can't say for sure the Latos trade worsened the 2012 Padres until we see how Byrnes sorts out his current logjams.
- Red Sox acquire Mark Melancon from Astros for Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland. Melancon, the former Astros' closer, is under team control for five more seasons and therefore was generally assumed unavailable. The Santos and Melancon trades suggest a newfound willingness to move relievers in their prime, which makes you wonder what a Kenley Jansen or Greg Holland could fetch.
- Diamondbacks acquire Trevor Cahill, Craig Breslow, and cash from Athletics for Jarrod Parker, Collin Cowgill, and Ryan Cook. Most people assumed Gio Gonzalez would be moved rather Cahill, and instead A's GM Billy Beane traded both. The Santos and Cahill trades remind us that long-term extensions don't take players off the trade market. It was also surprising that the D'Backs targeted Cahill and were willing to surrender Parker. GMs are less attached to top prospects they didn't acquire, though — Parker wasn't a Kevin Towers draft pick, and Rizzo wasn't a Byrnes acquisition.
- Angels acquire Chris Iannetta from Rockies for Tyler Chatwood. Here's another example: Jerry Dipoto didn't draft Chatwood. Dipoto was willing to move six years of the 22-year-old righty for the more immediate impact brought by one year of Iannetta. The Rockies, meanwhile, may feel there's little difference between Iannetta and new catcher Ramon Hernandez for 2012.