Uncategorized News & Rumors

Players can be traded while on the DL, but in general teams strongly prefer their acquisitions to be healthy.  Here's a look at trade candidates who are currently on the DL.

• Erik Bedard, Mariners.  Bedard is on the DL for a knee sprain.  He threw a successful bullpen session on Sunday and may be able to make a start or two before the deadline.  Injuries have killed Bedard's trade deadline value in years past, though they were more serious than this one.  To the extent that he's on the mound, Bedard might be the best available starter on the trade market.
• Jose Reyes, Mets.  Reyes just finished recovering from a left hamstring strain; he's expected back in the Mets' lineup tonight.  I know he's not expected to be dealt, though I think it'd make sense for Sandy Alderson to listen.
• Ivan Rodriguez, Nationals.  Pudge is coming back from an oblique strain and should return to action this month.
• Luke Scott, Orioles.  Scott's shoulder has bothered him for much of the season, but he received a cortisone shot and could be activated today.  I think he's likely to stay put.
• Brad Hawpe, Padres.  Hawpe strained a finger in late June, but an elbow problem may be the bigger concern.  It sounds like he won't make it back by the deadline, but an August deal could happen.
• Kevin Slowey, Twins.  Battling an abdomen injury, Slowey made a third rehab start on Friday.  He's expected to be optioned to stay in Triple-A, so a trade would be best for everyone.
• John Danks, White Sox.  Danks is expected to rejoin Chicago's rotation Thursday against the Royals after an oblique strain.  His teammate Edwin Jackson seems more likely to be dealt.
• Casey Blake, Dodgers.  Blake received a cortisone shot for his neck injury, but no return is imminent.  This might have to be an August deal if at all.

Here's what each contender appears to be looking for, as determined by reported rumors.

• Red Sox: Right-handed hitting right fielder, lefty reliever, starting pitcher, shortstop
• Yankees:  Starting pitcher, lefty and righty reliever, bench player capable of playing third base
• Rays: Reliever
• Indians: Starting pitcher, outfielder, infield help, general offense
• Tigers: Starting pitcher, third baseman, outfielder, lefty reliever    
• White Sox: Righty reliever
• Twins: Middle reliever
• Rangers: Reliever, starting pitcher
• Angels: Reliever, third baseman, outfielder, first baseman (preference for left-handed hitter)
• Phillies: Reliever, right-handed hitting outfielder (preference for non-rentals)
• Braves: Right-handed hitting outfielder, leadoff hitter, bench player
• Pirates: Right-handed hitter, reliever, starting pitcher
• Cardinals: Starting pitcher, reliever
• Brewers: Third baseman, shortstop
• Reds: Reliever, starting pitcher, left fielder
• Giants: Corner outfielder, catcher, second baseman, shortstop
• Diamondbacks: Affordable reliever, starting pitcher

Bryce Harper of the Nationals, Matt Moore of the Rays and Julio Teheran of the Braves are the three best prospects in baseball, according to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, who released his midseason list of the top 50 prospects in the game today.

Harper, the consensus top prospect in baseball, also topped Baseball America's midseason list and Keith Law's midseason list. Goldstein ranked Teheran higher than Law (12th) or BA (4th). Though the 20-year-old right-hander has pitched well, Moore has simply outperformed him to become the new top pitching prospect in baseball, according to Goldstein.

SIERA is an estimator of what a pitcher's ERA would be with average luck, defense, and park, by looking at other pitchers with similar strikeouts, walks, and ground ball rates in recent seasons.  The stat goes a step further than similar estimators by accounting for the batting average on balls in play and home run per flyball rates of similar pitchers.  Here's your trade candidate SIERA leaderboard from FanGraphs, which now carries an improved version of the stat:

1. Anibal Sanchez – 3.07
2. Rich Harden – 3.20 (18 innings)
3. Erik Bedard – 3.23
4. Derek Lowe – 3.52
5. Brandon McCarthy – 3.58
6. Wandy Rodriguez – 3.60
7. Ricky Nolasco – 3.60
8. Chris Capuano – 3.61
9. Edwin Jackson – 3.62
10. Ubaldo Jimenez – 3.64
11. Hiroki Kuroda – 3.68
12. Tom Gorzelanny – 3.70
13. Ted Lilly – 3.79
14. Jeff Niemann – 3.92
15. Brett Myers – 3.94
16. John Danks – 4.05
17. Aaron Harang – 4.05
18. Jason Marquis – 4.08
19. Livan Hernandez – 4.20
20. Javier Vazquez – 4.26
21. Jeff Francis – 4.26
22. Jeremy Guthrie – 4.27
23. Bruce Chen – 4.58
24. Kyle Davies – 4.61
25. Aaron Cook - 4.66 (38 2/3 innings)

There is a subjective element in choosing trade candidates – for example, it was my choice to leave off James Shields and include McCarthy.  For the most part I tried to be inclusive, including players like Sanchez, Nolasco, and Jimenez even though they are unlikely to be dealt.

10-and-5 rights are tough to earn – a player needs ten years in the Majors, the last five with his current team.  The players' union wants these rights to mean something, so players are discouraged from waiving them.  The rights are still waived at times – for example, Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman eventually approved trades last summer.

Here's our list of players with 10-and-5 rights:

Carlos Beltran
Mark Buehrle
Chris Carpenter
Ryan Dempster
Rafael Furcal
Carlos Guillen
Todd Helton
Tim Hudson
Brandon Inge
Derek Jeter
Chipper Jones
Paul Konerko
John McDonald
Joe Nathan
Magglio Ordonez
David Ortiz
A.J. Pierzynski
Jorge Posada
Albert Pujols
Aramis Ramirez
Mariano Rivera
Alex Rodriguez
Jimmy Rollins
Ichiro Suzuki
Jason Varitek
Tim Wakefield
Michael Young

It appears that Carlos Zambrano will join the club on August 7th, and Josh Beckett will achieve 10-and-5 rights on August 19th.  Zambrano, of course, already has a full no-trade clause as part of his contract.

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Like it or not, the Elias rankings affect players’ free agent value. Signing unranked or Type B player doesn’t cost a thing, even if they turned down offers of arbitration. But signing a Type A player who turned down arbitration is different. Teams have to surrender a high draft pick to sign those free agents and, especially when it comes to relief pitchers, that’s a definite deterrent. So Type A relievers who turn down arbitration have fewer suitors, less leverage and, often, less money. 

The Elias rankings also matter to teams assessing a player’s trade value. Acquiring a Type A player has different consequences than acquiring an unranked player, so a player’s value depends, in part, on his ranking. I’ve taken the relievers heading toward free agency who could be traded and grouped them by free agent type so we can gain some insight into their summer trade value:

Type A: Koji Uehara (vesting option), Matt Capps, Heath Bell

• Teams could obtain two draft choices for these pitchers if they maintain their ranking and turn down offers of arbitration to sign elsewhere. Bell will probably obtain an offer of arbitration from his new team, assuming he’s traded. Would teams be willing to give up a top pick to sign Capps, who has seen his strikeout rate, ground ball rate and fastball velocity drop this year? Prospective suitors might prefer a Type B ranking for Capps and the same goes for Uehara, who has had trouble staying off of the disabled list.

Type B: Jason Frasor (club option), Octavio Dotel (club option), Jon Rauch (club option), Shawn Camp, Frank Francisco, Michael Wuertz (club option), Kerry Wood

• Offering arbitration to a Type B player is simpler, since other suitors don’t have to give up a draft pick. A major consideration for teams offering arbitration to Type Bs: what if the player accepts and sets himself up for a raise through arbitration? It’s a risk many teams are willing to take for the possibility of a draft pick. Plus, it’s not unheard of for players to agree to turn their former clubs’ offers down (after all, it doesn’t affect their free agent value).

Unranked: Chad Qualls (club option), Tim Byrdak, John Grabow, Jason Isringhausen

• The Elias rankings are subject to change, so these relievers could be ranked by the end of the season, but at this point there’s no chance of obtaining draft picks as compensation losing for Qualls, Byrdak, Grabow or Isringhausen. There's no hidden value to trading for these pitchers; what you see is what you get.

Click here for a primer on free agent compensation, here for details on the Elias Rankings and here for a look at the history of the rankings.

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ESPN.com’s Keith Law ranks the top 50 prospects in baseball and Bryce Harper of the Nationals and Matt Moore of the Rays rank first and second, respectively. Two Cardinals right-handers, Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez, place third and fourth on Law's list and Orioles shortstop Manny Machado rounds out the top five.

Law's list resembles Baseball America's midseason list, though Law excludes Mike Trout, who recently graduated to the Major Leagues. Braves pitching prospect Julio Teheran placed fourth on BA's list, but fell from sixth to 12th for Law, who explained that the right-hander's curveball could use some work.

Of this year's 84 All-Stars, six were drafted first overall in their class.  These guys were destined to make All-Star teams, mostly out of high school.  Another 24 All-Stars were drafted within the first 30 picks, so their success is no surprise.  Among drafted players, who belongs on the opposite end of the spectrum as the most surprising All-Stars?

• Padres closer Heath Bell has to take the cake, as the Mets signed him as an undrafted free agent in 1998.  Bell had been drafted by the Devil Rays the year before in the 69th round.
• Braves reliever Jonny Venters was drafted by the Braves in the 30th round in '03, 907th overall.  Giants closer Brian Wilson went in that same draft class, in the 24th round.
• Blue Jays third baseman Jose Bautista, possibly the best hitter in baseball these days, was a 20th round pick of the Pirates in 2000, though he signed for $500K.
• Phillies third baseman Placido Polanco went to the Cardinals in the 19th round in '94, a year after he'd been chosen in the 49th round by the White Sox.
• Yankees reliever David Robertson was drafted in the 17th round in '06, though he signed for $200K.
• Yankees catcher Russell Martin went in the 17th round to the Dodgers in '02, an improvement over his 35th round by the Expos two years prior.
• Others drafted outside of the top 200 picks: James Shields, Jordan Walden, Matt Joyce, Howie Kendrick, Tyler Clippard, Kevin Youkilis, and Matt Holliday.  And we have to mention starter Ryan Vogelsong, who was a fifth round pick by the Giants in '98 but hadn't pitched in the Majors since '06 until this year.