Uncategorized News & Rumors

In conjunction with the popular Twitter feed @closernews, CloserNews.com had its firm launch in July, which proved to be both an exciting and extremely busy time. Because of the wealth of high-profile relievers who were candidates to be dealt before today's 3 pm CT non-waiver trade deadline, there was no shortage of material to cover, regardless of which deals ultimately came to fruition. Chasing saves, after all, sometimes demands hitting the waiver wire in anticipation of a bullpen shakeup, so it can be a chess match of considering all the speculative moves in advance.

Here's a look back at the month that was at CloserNews.com — the deals that were done, some that weren't, and the closer-related fantasy fallout.

• The Brewers acquired Francisco Rodriguez from the Mets. K-Rod waived his option, seemingly clearing the path for him to steal some save opps from John Axford, but it hasn't played out that way.
• Many expected Bobby Parnell to close for the Mets in K-Rod's stead, but the job ultimately went to Jason Isringhausen, whom the Mets said early they wouldn't trade.
• The Cardinals acquired Marc Rzepczynski and Octavio Dotel, and moved starter Kyle McClellan to the bullpen, setting up a potential closer-by-committee.
• The Rangers pulled off two notable acquisitions. First, they dealt for Koji Uehara of the Orioles, then they added Mike Adams of the Padres. It looks like both right-handers will set up for closer Neftali Feliz, however.
• The Marlins were rumored to be selling closer Leo Nunez, but those talks died down, and the Fish may in fact keep Nunez into 2012. Edward Mujica would have been the handcuff, according to manager Jack McKeon.
• The Tigers acquired setup man David Pauley from the Mariners, probably diminishing his value in holds leagues.
• The Mariners considered trading closer Brandon League but ultimately decided against it.
• The Nationals were mulling a deal with the Twins involving closer Drew Storen in their pursuit of a center fielder, but it never came to fruition.
• Rays closer Kyle Farnsworth, who has reinvented himself the past couple years, was a trade candidate, but with a favorable team option in 2012, Tampa Bay kept him.

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Right now DraftStreet is offering a freeroll for MLB Trade Rumors readers, meaning you've got a shot at a $400 prize pool for free, with no strings attached.  The top ten finishers will get paid.  The details:

The MLBTR freeroll is for Friday night's games, so you have until then to create your team.  You're given a $100K salary cap, and each player is assigned a price by DraftStreet.  For Friday, Roy Halladay is considered the most valuable player since he starts against the Pirates, but he'll cost you over $18K.  I've gone with a couple of big strikeout pitchers instead in my roster below, Matt Garza and Erik Bedard.  I'm hoping Bedard handles the pressure of a being heavily scouted well.  Your roster covers these positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, 2 utility, 2 SP, 1 RP, 1 P and 2 Reserves (14 starters).  You get points based on how your team performs Friday.  For example, you'll get 0.75 points for each strikeout Bedard racks up and 1.5 points if he gets the win.  The teams with the most points get the prize money.  You can apply all kinds of strategy in building your roster – for example, maybe you want to avoid Heath Bell because you think he'll be a setup man by Friday.  Below I've taken a screenshot of a roster in progress: 

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Lost in all the excitement, opinion and analysis following today's Carlos Beltran trade is just how rare it is for a player having a season as strong as Beltran's to be dealt. Since 1980, there have been 1,371 outfielder seasons that qualified for the batting title. Ranked by OPS+, Beltran's 151 mark ranks 99th out of all of them – and second among outfielders traded mid-season.

So the Mets' trading stance – holding out for top-tier talent and eventually getting Zack Wheeler – makes a great deal of sense. But it is also worth exploring: has the acquisition of outfield offense near the caliber of Beltran been a difference-maker for teams?

The only outfielder with a higher OPS+ to be traded mid-year since 1980 was Gary Sheffield. He posted a 155 OPS+ for the Marlins and Dodgers during a 1998 season that ranks 77th among outfield offensive seasons since 1980.

The deal isn't overly illustrative of what Beltran can provide for a number of reasons. For one thing, Sheffield was traded much earlier in the season – May 14 – and to a team that wasn't looking to win that season (trading Mike Piazza in the deal is a reliable indicator of that). Sheffield went on to make the All-Star team for Los Angeles, providing 3.0 wins above replacement, even with an awful glove that made him a more one-dimensional player than Beltran. To be sure, Sheffield wasn't a candidate to play center field. But with alternatives like a young Roger Cedeno and Todd Hollandsworth, Sheffield was certainly a difference-maker for the Dodgers, even if they finished the season with a mediocre 83-79 record.

Next on the list, appearing at 133rd among offensive outfield seasons since 1980, is the trade of Rickey Henderson on July 31, 1993. The Oakland Athletics, looking to rebuild, sent the 34-year-old Henderson to Toronto for elite pitching prospect Steve Karsay and toolsy outfielder Jose Herrera. According to Baseball America, Herrera was the 97th best prospect in baseball prior to the 1994 season; Karsay ranked 12th overall.

It is no surprise that Sandy Alderson, the current Mets General Manager, wanted a similar return to the one obtained by then-Oakland GM… Sandy Alderson. Henderson, for his part, slumped badly after the trade. He'd put up a 182 OPS+ with Oakland, but that dropped to just 83 with Toronto. Still, Henderson and the Jays went on to win a World Series. It is hard not to consider Henderson a difference-maker, especially since the other Toronto left fielders were Darnell Coles, Rob Butler, Willie Canate and Turner Ward.

The only other offensive outfield season in the top 200 since 1980 from a player traded in-season came from Brian Giles, whose 145 OPS+ ranked 161 in 2003. The Giles difference-maker portion of the deal is hard to evaluate – he went from a Pirates team out of the race to a Padres team out of the race. But the return is noteworthy – a young, hard-throwing lefty named Oliver Perez, a young, power-hitting outfielder named Jason Bay, and minor leaguer Cory Stewart.

In short, it is easy to see that any contender who suggested Beltran wasn't worth much was just posturing. Outfielders who hit like Carlos Beltran simply aren't available in many midseason trades.

The main benefit of the Nationals acquiring Jonny Gomes from the Reds is a shot at a supplemental draft pick, in the opinion of ESPN's Jim Bowden.  As Ben Nicholson-Smith noted, Gomes is no lock to receive and turn down an arbitration offer.  Still, we saw plenty of apparent handshake deals where Type Bs turned down arbitration offers last offseason.  A Type B free agent has nothing to lose by agreeing to such an arrangement.

Our new Elias projections are out, so let's take a look at players who currently project as Type Bs free agents and play for teams expected to sell.

• Blue Jays:  The Jays will probably be trying to add Type Bs, but Jose Molina, Aaron Hill, Octavio Dotel, Jason Frasor, Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, and Shawn Camp qualify.
• Orioles: Vladimir Guerrero
• Twins: Jason Kubel
• Royals: Bruce Chen
• Athletics: David DeJesus
• Mariners: None
• Mets: None
• Marlins: Omar Infante
• Nationals: Ivan Rodriguez, Jonny Gomes
• Cubs: Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Dempster, Kerry Wood
• Astros: None
• Rockies: Mark Ellis
• Dodgers: Rod Barajas, Casey Blake, Hiroki Kuroda
• Padres: Ryan Ludwick

The most transparent instance of trading for a draft pick came last offseason, when the Jays acquired catcher Miguel Olivo from the Rockies with the intent of declining his option and offering arbitration.  The ploy worked, and Toronto drafted Dwight Smith Jr. 53rd overall in June as a direct result.  So if the Jays or some other draft pick-obsessed team makes a run at Bruce Chen this month, you'll know why.

I'm often asked in weekly chats on the site to name the best prospects who will be traded this month.  I'll toss out a few names outside of the top 20 – Jonathan Singleton, Yonder Alonso, Robbie Erlin.  But the reality is that most buyers are holding on to their top prospects tightly.  

ESPN's Buster Olney surveyed team executives, and several feel that the buyers are "exponentially more protective of their prospects."  Some teams operate in fear of even marginal prospects becoming useful big leaguers down the line.  An NL assistant GM said to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, "top prospects are totally overvalued and have never been tougher to pry away even in a perfect deal."

Still, last summer we saw Justin Smoak, Tyler Skaggs, Wilson Ramos, Brett Wallace, and Anthony Gose dealt, though those last two were for each other.  Other good young players such as James McDonald, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Yunel Escobar, Mark Melancon, and Dan Hudson were traded as well.

Weighted on-base average is a great stat to measure overall offensive production.  Using FanGraphs, my own list of trade candidates, and a 200 plate appearance minimum, here's a list of potentially available bats by wOBA:

1. Carlos Beltran – .394
2. Michael Cuddyer – .371
3. Aramis Ramirez – .370
4. Casey Kotchman – .367
5. Hunter Pence – .366
6. Mark Reynolds – .355
7. Marlon Byrd – .353
8. Michael Bourn – .352
9. Chris Iannetta – .349
10. Melky Cabrera – .349
11. Ty Wigginton – .340
12. Laynce Nix – .339
13. Carlos Pena – .339
14. Jeff Francoeur – .338
15. Denard Span – .337
16. Kosuke Fukudome – .336
17. Josh Willingham – .332
18. Colby Rasmus – .328
19. Johnny Damon – .328
20. Jonny Gomes – .328

The list looks reasonably healthy at first glance, but I was liberal with my inclusions.  Take out Cuddyer, Ramirez, and Pence for various reasons, and you realize that the trade market consists of Beltran plus a few decent hitters for whom you still might have to overpay.

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Many of you play fantasy baseball, so here's a reminder to check out our newly launched CloserNews website.  The site is bursting with new content from Dan Mennella, helping fantasy players make sense of each team's bullpen and ninth inning situation.

For instant updates on possible closer changes, especially with the trade deadline approaching, follow @closernews on Twitter.

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