Uncategorized News & Rumors

A few items of note coming out of the AL West …

• The Mariners may miss Mark Lowe, whom they dealt to the Rangers in the Cliff Lee swap, what with David Aardsma likely to miss the start of the regular season as he mends from offseason hip surgery, writes John Hickey of SportsPressNW.com. Lowe, who was sidelined after back surgery at the time of the Lee deal, was considered then as something of a footnote to the big-name Lee. But the Rangers insisted on acquiring Lowe, according to Hickey, and had Seattle not included the right-hander, it would not have gotten prized first-base prospect Justin Smoak in return. Now, Lowe is the leading candidate to claim closing duties in Texas while Neftali Feliz tries his hand at starting.
• The Rangers either signed Adrian Beltre simply to prevent him from going to the Angels, or there is a serious personality conflict between certain members of Texas' front office and Michael Young, writes Mitch Williams of the MLB Network. These are the only scenarios that could possibly explain the Rangers' curious handling of Young, according to Williams, because Young is a good player who does things the right way.
• Athletics managing partner Lew Wolff held court with a few reporters, writes Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com. Wolff is pleased with the on-field direction of his team, but he is still seeking a resolution to the Athletics' stadium situation, which has been under MLB review since 2008. The A's looked into moving to San Jose then, but the Giants have remained opposed to that because of the city's proximity to San Francisco. As well, the A's are seeking to improve their Spring Training facility at Phoenix Municipal Stadium, but funding is tough to come by in these hard economic times. In all, Wolff is frustrated but understands that he must be patient, although, as he quipped, at 75, patience is something of a luxury.

Waiver claims are perhaps the least exciting hot stove transaction, but they can have a very real impact in the standings. Zachary Levine of The Houston Chronicle noted that seven players on the Astros' 40-man roster were originally acquired via waivers, including setup man Wilton Lopez. After being claimed from the Padres in April 2009, Lopez posting a 2.96 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and just 0.7 BB/9 in 67 innings last season.

Using our Transactions Tracker, lets look back at some players who were claimed off waivers in the last three or so years before going on to be productive players for their new teams…

• Craig Breslow, LHP – Breslow bounced around quite a bit before the A's poached him from the Twins in May 2009. He's pitched to a 2.84 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 130 innings with Oakland.
• Todd Coffey, RHP – The burly right-hander was claimed off waivers by the Brewers from the Reds in September 2008, after which he posted a 3.52 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 153 1/3 innings for Milwaukee.
• Casey McGehee, 3B – Another waiver gem by the Brewers, they grabbed McGehee from the Cubs in October 2008. In the two seasons since, he's hit .291/.346/.477 with 39 homers in 1,064 plate appearances.
• Dan Meyer, LHP – Once the headliner in the Tim Hudson trade, the Marlins selected Meyer from the A's in November 2008. He pitched very well in 2009 (3.09 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 in 58 1/3 innings) before falling apart in 2010.
• Darren O'Day, RHP – The Mets let O'Day go on waivers in April 2009 after selecting him from the Angels in the Rule 5 Draft. All the submariner has done since is post a 1.99 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 117 2/3 innings as a Ranger.
• Eric O'Flaherty, LHP – The Braves claimed O'Flaherty off waivers from the Mariners in November 2008, and he's gone on to pitch to a 2.78 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 100 1/3 innings for Atlanta.

The trend here is relievers. Their performance tends to fluctuate from year-to-year, sometimes wildly, and sometimes a change of scenery can be all it takes to unlock potential. 

Other players like Alex Rios, Manny Ramirez, and Cody Ross were claimed off waivers as well, both those transactions were driven by shedding salary more than anything else. The list of players above were more or less given up on by their original clubs.

Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects list is out, and it's free for all to see. Bryce Harper, the first overall pick in the 2010 draft, tops the list, and is followed by Mike Trout. The Angels selected Trout with the Yankees' first round pick in 2009 (25th overall), which they received as compensation for losing Mark Teixeira. Five Royals cracked the top 20, including three in the top ten.

For comparison, check out MLB.com's Top 50 and Keith Law's Top 100 for ESPN.

If this winter’s class of free agents intrigued you, just wait until next year. Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth will be distant memories when Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols and, potentially, C.C. Sabathia hit the open market this November.

Pujols did not reach an agreement with the St. Louis Cardinals last week, which means the sides stopped negotiating until after the season, when the Cardinals will have to bid against other interested teams. Not long before the Pujols negotiations ended, C.C. Sabathia declined to say definitively that he won’t opt out of his contract and the chances of Sabathia hitting free agency have never seemed better.

If Sabathia – arguably the top left-handed pitcher in the game – and Pujols – probably the best hitter in the game – hit free agency along with Fielder, it would be one of the most potent combinations the free agent market has seen in a long while. Sabathia has averaged 20 wins, 234 innings and 197 strikeouts since arriving in baseball's toughest division two winters ago and Pujols has averaged 41 home runs, a .331 batting average and a .426 on-base percentage since arriving in the majors a decade ago, so few free agent classes compare.

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I'm writing a series of guest posts at FanGraphs, one of the first places baseball fans go for top analysis and stats. Today, I explain that players don't have to be free agents to cash in on big years. In fact, players don't have to be arbitration eligible to turn a standout season into a new deal so, in a way, every year is a contract year.

The arbitration season ended when Hunter Pence beat the Astros at Friday's hearing to give players a 2-1 advantage in the three cases that did go in front of a panel of arbitrators, as MLBTR's Arb Tracker shows

The Angels, who beat Jered Weaver and Scott Boras in arbitration, were the only team to win an arbitration hearing this year. The Pirates and Astros lost to Ross Ohlendorf and Pence, respectively and no other cases went to arbitration hearings. The three total cases matched a record low, as there have never been fewer than three hearings since 1974, when the process began, according to the AP.

The 21 extensions extensions that arbitration eligible players signed this winter helped teams avoid the arbitration process. Though some involved in the process prefer to avoid potentially disruptive hearings, this year's players appear to have enjoyed the process. Pence says his hearing was fascinating and Weaver, who remains open to a multiyear deal, says it was "kind of fun."

Last year, eight hearings took place, as three players (Corey Hart, Jeff Mathis and Cody Ross) won and five others (Ryan Theriot, Wandy Rodriguez, Sean Burnett, Brian Bruney and B.J. Upton) lost.

Swarms of players are selected off waivers every offseason, but every so often we'll see a player get claimed more than once in a single winter. As our Transaction Tracker shows, four players were claimed off waivers on two different occasions since the end of the 2010 regular season. Let's review…

• Philip Humber, RHP: The former third overall pick in the draft (2004), the 28-year-old Humber is perhaps best known for being included in the package the Twins received from the Mets for Johan Santana in early-2008. The Athletics grabbed him off waivers from the Royals in mid-December after he'd been designated for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster for Jeff Francoeur. The White Sox then plucked him off waivers from the A's about a month later, after he'd been cut to make room for Guillermo Moscoso.
• Jordan Parraz, OF: The Red Sox started the chain reaction by claiming Parraz off waivers from the Royals in late-November, then the Yankees stepped in and grabbed him a few weeks later.
• Max Ramirez, C/1B: The Red Sox almost acquired Ramirez from the Rangers last offseason before Mike Lowell's finger injury nixed the deal, but Theo Epstein eventually got his man by selecting him off waivers from Texas in early-January. Ramirez had been DFA'd to make room on the Rangers' roster for Brandon Webb. A few days later, the Cubs grabbed Ramirez off waivers from Boston.
• Brian Schlitter, RHP: When the Cubs placed Carlos Zambrano on the restricted list last season, Schlitter was the pitcher called up from the minors to fill the vacated spot on the pitching staff. The Yankees claimed him off waivers from the north siders in early January, but lost him this week when the Phillies scooped him up. New York designated him for assignment to make room for Andruw Jones.

If you'd like to filter MLBTR's information by team or limit it to transactions only, we've got you covered.

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When MLBTR's Tim Dierkes and I examined the reasons teams do and don't extend young starters last fall, it became apparent that obtaining control of free agent years was critical for teams considering extensions. By locking a player up for one or more of his free agent seasons, the team gets to keep the player for longer, without having to bid for him on the open market.

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein weighed in on extensions for arbitration eligible players this morning and explained that he doesn't like the idea of extending players if they aren't willing to sign a deal that includes a free agent season.

"If we’re going to sign arbitration-eligible players long term, we have to get one free agent year and we have to get an option for the club," Epstein said on WEEI. "Because we’re giving the player certainty. We need to be able get some of those prime years back in exchange. That makes it a fair bargain."

Most of the 21 arbitration eligible players who signed extensions this offseason surrendered at least one year of free agency, but nine players signed multiyear deals that provided them with security without delaying their arrival on the free agent market.

There are potential benefits for the teams that signed extensions without gaining control of their players' free agent years. The clubs obtained cost certainty and may end up saving money through arbitration, so free agent years aren't the only variable in play. The arbitration eligible players below signed extensions that did not include free agent years this offseason (sorted by most guaranteed dollars):

• Reds – Joey Votto $38MM for three years
• Rangers – Josh Hamilton – $24MM for two years
• Diamondbacks – Stephen Drew – $13.75MM for two years (mutual option for 2013)
• Rockies – Jason Hammel – $7.75MM for two years
• Blue Jays – Rajai Davis  - $5.75MM for two years
• Cubs – Sean Marshall –  $4.7MM for two years
• Nationals – Sean Burnett –  $3.95MM for two years (mutual option for 2013)
• Tigers – Ryan Raburn – $3.4MM for two years
• Mariners – Brendan Ryan – $2.75MM for two years

These extensions are by no means a new trend. Last winter alone, Mark Reynolds, Tim Lincecum, Brian Wilson, Andre Ethier, Jonathan Broxton and Matt Kemp signed extensions that didn't cover any free agent years.

When a panel of arbitrators decides between Hunter Pence's $6.9MM asking price and the Astros' $5.15MM offer today or Monday, all of the 160-plus arbitration eligible players in baseball will have contracts for 2011. About one eighth of them – 21 – have agreed to multiyear extensions, as MLBTR's Arb Tracker shows.

The diverse group of extension recipients included both reigning MVPs (Josh Hamilton and Joey Votto) and the 2010 MLB home run champion (Jose Bautista). Only six of the 21 extensions came from the American League and the Blue Jays were the lone AL team to extend two arbitration eligible players (Bautista and Rajai Davis).

The Cubs (Sean Marshall and Carlos Marmol), Rockies (Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom) and Reds (Votto, Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto) all extended multiple players in the Senior Circuit*.

Bautista ($64MM) signed for the most guaranteed money, followed by Dan Uggla ($62MM) and Jay Bruce ($51MM). Bruce (six years) signed for the most years, followed by Uggla and Bautista, who both signed for five.

No arbitration eligible catchers signed extensions (Geovany Soto was one potential candidate), but the other positions were well-represented. Five starting pitchers, four relief pitchers, four outfielders, three second basemen, two shortstops, two first basemen and Bautista, a third baseman/outfielder, composed the group of 21 recipients.

Extension season is far from over, though. Nine players signed extensions between this date in 2010 and Opening Day, so we could still see a number of deals in Spring Training. Pre-arbitration eligible pitchers such as Clay Buchholz and Trevor Cahill will be among the names to watch once Pence signs and all of the year's arbitration eligibles are under contract. 

*Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki were not arbitration eligible this offseason, though they signed extensions.