Uncategorized News & Rumors

You've almost certainly heard that Albert Pujols did not reach a long-term deal with the Cardinals by this morning's deadline. That means Pujols will hit free agency after the season and, as I explain in an article at Yahoo Sports, he won't have a shortage of suitors.

For a long time, talk of the 2011-12 winter revolved around the four first basemen who would hit the market at once. Prince Fielder remains on track to become a free agent after the season, but the class won't be as memorable as it could have been. Albert Pujols could sign an extension within 24 hours, Adrian Gonzalez will probably sign an extension within two months and Ryan Howard is locked up through 2016.

But even though top first basemen are signing long-term deals, next year's free agent class figures to be strong at second base. While Orlando Hudson, and Juan Uribe highlighted the 2010-11 offseason, the upcoming class of free agents figures to feature more stars at second.

Robinson Cano ($14MM club option), Brandon Phillips ($12MM club option) and Aaron Hill (series of club options) could all hit the open market, though it seems likely that their current clubs will retain them, at least through 2012.

Two Bay Area second basemen, Mark Ellis and Freddy Sanchez, are set to hit free agency after the 2011 season. So are Kelly Johnson, who just avoided arbitration, and Rickie Weeks, who is working to do the same. (The Brewers are still discussing a multiyear deal with Weeks, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. I wouldn't be surprised to see the sides reach a deal before long, since they are up against a deadline and Johnson, a top comparable for Weeks, just settled.) Clint Barmes, Omar Infante and Jose Lopez are on track to hit free agency after the season and early non-tender candidate Ryan Theriot could also hit the open market.

Some of the players above will sign extensions or see their options exercised, but teams looking to add proven players should have a deeper than usual class of second basemen to choose from next offseason.

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I'm writing a series of guest posts at FanGraphs, one of the first places baseball fans go for top analysis and stats. Today, I take a closer look at the burst of multiyear contracts for relievers. Owners were no doubt responsible to a large degree, but I argue that Brandon Lyon deserves at least a little bit of credit for setting his fellow relievers up.

That big red day on our calendars has arrived. For some of us, the night will be filled with various distractions to keep our minds from the inescable fact that we are alone in the world. For those of us who are attached, the day can serve as a payment in advance to our spouse, in exchange for the inescable time vacuum to come the moment pitchers and catchers report.

But while we are forced by television show theme episodes and huge pharmacy candy displays to consider the health of our romatic lives, baseball teams have proven to be a surprisingly unsentimental lot. Few transactions occur on February 14th each season- teams have made the incredible decision to sign or trade for players based on need, instead of sprinkling roses across the infield grass to let prospective free agents know that they are, indeed, The One.

For those teams that did in recent years: were they able to find love? Let's take a look.

Last Valentine's Day, not a single transaction occurred. But back in 2009, the Mets signed Livan Hernandez, clearly choosing a partner they knew would stick by them, through good innings and bad. For a while, it appeared a love connection had formed. Hernandez won the fifth-starter spot that spring, and posted a respectable 4.04 ERA through June 28th. But things fell apart quickly after that, with Hernandez putting up an 8.71 ERA in his next eight starts. The Mets told Hernandez they wanted to see other starters, and Livan headed south to the Nationals, where he found a new home. He even came back to face the Mets in April of 2010, pitching seven shutout innings against his former flame. Awkward!

The Mets were also involved with two of the four Valentine's Day signings in 2008: reliever Ricardo Rincon and outfielder Ben Johnson. The team proceeded to stand Johnson up, keeping him in the minors, while Rincon turned out to be a four-inning September fling. 2008's other two Valentine's Day signings, Kent Mercker to the Reds and David Newhan to the Astros, met with some limited success. But King Edward VIII and Wallis Simpson it wasn't.

To find a couple that outperformed the critics, you'd have to go back to 2007, when the Red Sox gave J.D. Drew a five year, $70MM contract on Valentine's Day. (Matchmaker Scott Boras brought them together, though it is unclear if he used the phrase "Kismet!") While some thought it wouldn't last, the Red Sox are entering the final season of Drew's contract, and have to be pretty satisfied with the results so far. Drew has given them an OPS+ of 120 over four seasons and 2,093 plate appearances – a solid record of both performance and durability. Here's hoping Theo Epstein sends Drew flowers today.

But it would be downright coldhearted to overlook the other connection that day in 2007, between the Washington Nationals and Dmitri "More to Love" Young. Brought in merely to compete for the first base job, Young seized it and never looked back, hitting .340 by the All-Star break to earn a selection, and finishing up with a season line of .320/.378/.491. Smitten, the Nationals signed him to a two-year, $10MM contract extension. However, the affair turned as one-sided as the coupling between Lisa Simpson and Ralph Wiggum, with Young playing in just 50 games in 2008 and none in 2009.

Still, who are we to judge this brief flame in our nation's capital? So whatever your intentions, may all of your Valentine's Days be as successful as Dmitri Young's 2007.

Camps are opening, and most teams have the majority of their Major League roster spots devoted to particular players. However, each team typically has a few roster spots up for grabs, typically in the back of the rotation, on the bench and in the back end of the bullpen. Here's a look at some of those teams and the players in the hunt for the jobs …

• The White Sox will probably start the season with a four-man rotation with Jake Peavy unlikely to be ready by Opening Day, writes Mark Gonzales of ChicagoBreakingSports.com. Chris Sale will return to the bullpen, where he pitched so effectively in 2010, and when the schedule no longer permits the Sox to get by with a four-man rotation, the likely fifth-starter candidates are Lucas Harrell, Philip Humber and Jeff Gray.
• The Indians have a handful of possibilities for their infield, writes Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer. The best-case scenario entails Jason Donald at third, Asdrubal Cabrera at shortstop and Orlando Cabrera at second, but veterans Jayson Nix, Luis Valbuena and Jack Hannahan, and prospects Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis, Cord Phelps and Jared Goedert are also in play.
• The Orioles have two rotation spots up for grabs, writes Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Brad Bergesen, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman, Rick VandenHurk, Zach Britton and non-roster invitee Ryan Drese are among the contenders. The final spot on the bench will probably be claimed by one of Jake Fox, Robert Andino, Nolan Reimold, Randy Winn, Brendan Harris and Nick Green.
• The Yankees, too, have two available spots in their starting rotation, writes Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Among the contenders are veterans Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre, Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon, and prospects Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos and Andrew Brackman. The catching situation is tricky, with Russell Martin the favorite to start, but he is coming off an injury. Finally, the bench has seen a lot of turnover but will need to be strong for a veteran-heavy team.
• The Reds have only one available roster spot for position players, writes Jeremy P. Kelly of the Dayton Daily News, and Jeremy Hermida is the front-runner to win it. Two rotation spots will be divvied up among Travis Wood, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake, but Bailey is out of options, so he might have an edge for that reason. There are a handful of qualified bullpen hopefuls vying for two spots, Dontrelle Willis and Daniel Ray Herrera among them.
• The Giants have one bullpen spot open, with Guillermo Mota and Jeff Suppan the early favorites, writes Andrew Baggerly of the San Jose Mercury News. Prospect Brandon Belt, blocked by Aubrey Huff at first base, may not get his chance on Opening Day, according to Baggerly. Andres Torres and Cody Ross are likely starters in the outfield, with Pat Burrell, Nate Schierholtz, Aaron Rowand and Mark DeRosa battling for playing time, either with the Giants or "someone else," writes Baggerly.

If you're a regular MLBTR reader, you'll be familiar with our chats, our Week In Review posts and Mike Axisa's Baseball Blogs Weigh In feature. Here's some more detail on when you'll see our weekly features and exactly what to expect from them:

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Only 13 arbitration eligible players are still unsigned for 2011 and that number figures to keep on shrinking this week. As our Arb Tracker shows, most of the 150-plus arbitration eligible players have agreed to terms with their clubs. Here's the list of players who have yet to sign, sorted by the midpoint of the submissions. As you can see below, the players often submitted significantly higher figures than their teams did:

• Josh Hamilton, $12MM vs. Rangers, $8.7MM
• Jose Bautista, $10.5MM vs. Blue Jays, $7.6MM 
• Jered Weaver, $8.8MM vs. Angels, $7.37MM
• Luke Scott, $6.85MM vs. Orioles, $5.7MM
• Hunter Pence, $6.9MM vs. Astros, $5.15MM
• Rickie Weeks, $7.2MM vs. Brewers, $4.85MM
• Jeremy Guthrie, $6.5MM vs. Orioles, $5MM
• Kelly Johnson, $6.5MM vs. Diamondbacks, $4.7MM
• Delmon Young, $6.25MM vs. Twins, $4.65MM
• James Loney, $5.25MM vs. Dodgers, $4.7MM
• Carlos Marmol, $5.65MM vs. Cubs, $4.1MM – the sides are close to a long-term deal.
• Shaun Marcum, $5MM vs. Brewers, $3MM
• Ross Ohlendorf, $2.02MM vs. Pirates, $1.4MM

I'm writing a series of guest posts at FanGraphs, one of the first places baseball fans go for top analysis and stats. Today, I look ahead to the next crop of $100MM players and conclude that Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez are far from the only ones with a shot at signing nine-figure contracts in the near future.