Final-Year Arbitration-Eligibles

More than 50 players will be eligible for arbitration for the last time after this season.  For some it will represent the biggest payday of their careers to this point.  Other useful but overpaid players will be non-tendered and will reach free agency a year early.  Here's a look at the final-year arbitration class, with 2010 base salaries included.  Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.

Expected To Be Tendered Contracts

Non-Tender Candidates

A Look At 2011 Club Options

Often times, a club option is an easy call to make. Kerry Wood's $11MM option isn't going to be exercised, and Bill Hall can forget about being paid $9.25MM in 2011. Eric Chavez at $12.5MM? Not happening. On the other side of the coin, Albert Pujols is a no-brainer at $16MM, and there's some easy lower profile calls like Matt Thornton's $3MM option.

But a closer look at some of the options out there makes for some interesting discussion. Let's take a look at a few cases that aren't as black and white:

  • Mark Ellis, $6MM, $500K buyout: Ellis has spent his whole career with the A's, and has enjoyed some fine seasons. From 2007-2008, he was a 6.8 WAR second baseman playing great defense and posting passable, though not outstanding offensive numbers. He's injury-prone, however, and UZR suggests that his defense has suffered the past two seasons. Fangraphs valued his services at $5.2MM in 2009 and $2.8MM so far in 2010. Will he be worth $6MM in 2011? Ellis profiles as a Type B free agent, so letting him walk (assuming he declines arbitration) would net a supplemental pick.
  • Nick Punto, $5MM, $500K buyout: Another injury-prone infielder, Punto's glove does his talking for him. While he's had some passable offensive seasons, he's certainly not a reliable source for production at the plate. Punto's defensive excellence makes him an asset at three positions, but his injuries and and weak bat are reason enough to be hesitant with the option.
  • Jeff Francis, $7MM: Francis has returned after missing all of 2009 to post a 4.56 ERA, which is considerably higher than both his FIP and xFIP suggest it should be. He's on the disabled list again now with shoulder soreness though, and he's totaled just 92.2 innings this season after rehabbing from shoulder surgery until mid-May. A healthy Francis is worth $7MM, but having missed 2009 and being on the DL once again, that's far from a guarantee.
  • Kevin Gregg, $4.5MM for 2011 or $8.75MM for 2011-2012, $750K buyout: Gregg's racking up the strikeouts and saves in his first season as Toronto's closer, but he's also walking hitters at a prolific rate (4.63 BB/9). His ERA is down from last season mostly due to allowing far fewer long balls, but his inconsistency and affinity for free passes make him a risky investment. Like Ellis, Gregg will be a Type B free agent.

These players represent only a handful of the options clubs will be faced with following the 2010 season. You can see other players' options by looking at our 2011 free agent list. While none of these are overly pricey, the difference that a few extra million can make on the free agent market could be sizable. Vladimir Guerrero ($6.5MM), Jim Thome ($1.5MM), and Brett Myers ($5.1MM) are just a few free agents who were inked in this price range last offseason.

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Last Year’s Non-Tenders

On October 5th and November 20th of last year I named my non-tender candidates.  On December 12th, many players were actually cut.  With the benefit of hindsight, consider these groupings:

Thankfully Tendered Contracts: Jose Bautista, Matt Lindstrom, Delmon Young, Matt Belisle

The Blue Jays tendered Bautista a contract and signed him the following day at the same salary he had in 2009 ($2.4MM).  To me that's a sign that if Bautista had communicated the desire for a raise prior to the December 12th deadline, he would've been non-tendered.  The Astros did well to buy low on Lindstrom, who probably wouldn't have been tendered a contract had he stayed with the Marlins.

The Twins never considered cutting Young despite an unimpressive '09 season.  He's only earning $2.6MM this year, anyway.  Including him on the list of non-tender candidates was entirely my bad idea.  Belisle received a very small raise from the Rockies and has been excellent out of their pen.

Should Have Been Tendered Contracts: Matt Capps, John Buck, D.J. Carrasco, Kelly Johnson

Jonny Gomes was left off the list since the Reds were able to re-sign him cheaply.  Given the strong play of Martin Prado for the Braves, you could make the case that cutting Johnson was the right move.  But we are operating with the benefit of hindsight here, and maybe they could've found him some playing time and rebuilt his value.

Capps was a surprise non-tender by the Pirates.  GM Neal Huntington did well in the Octavio Dotel trade, but what if he had been able to peddle both relievers?  Retaining Buck would've made sense for the Royals, but they spent more money on a player lacking upside in Jason Kendall.  I wouldn't say the White Sox badly needed D.J. Carrasco, but he retained value this year.

Should Have Been Non-Tendered: Bobby Jenks, Mark Teahen, Jeremy Hermida, John Maine, Conor Jackson, Dioner Navarro, Brian Bruney, Kelly Shoppach, Jeff Francoeur

In mid-December most of these risks were worth taking.  Jenks hasn't been as bad as his 5.13 ERA, but the White Sox could've spent that money elsewhere.  Obviously traded players like Bruney, Hermida, Shoppach, and Teahen weren't going to be non-tendered by their new teams.  But did the White Sox and Rays have to give Teahen and Shoppach multiyear deals?  Overall these nine players earned over $30MM in 2010. 

Best Prospects To Be Traded Recently

With so many top prospects untouchable these days, let's take a look at the ones who were traded last offseason or this summer.  We'll use the preseason top 100 lists from Baseball America and ESPN's Keith Law unless otherwise noted.

Traded This Summer

  • Justin Smoak (1B), by Rangers to Mariners in Cliff Lee deal.  The Mariners reportedly chose between Smoak and Jesus Montero of the Yankees as the centerpiece of the Lee trade.  Smoak was rated #13 by BA and #9 by Law before the season.
  • Brett Wallace (1B), by Blue Jays to Astros for Anthony Gose.  This was the second time in about seven months Wallace was involved in a prospect-for-prospect deal.  BA had him at #27 and Law at #20.  Wallace remained in the #26-50 range in BA's midseason rankings.
  • Wilson Ramos (C), by Twins to Nationals for Matt Capps.  Ramos was ranked #58 by BA and #42 by Law, and moved up in BA's midseason rankings despite an uninspiring Triple A performance.  That doesn't mean they value Ramos more highly now, though – the midseason list is weaker than the offseason one due to prospects graduating to the Majors and 2010 draftees being left off.
  • Dan Hudson (SP), by White Sox to Diamondbacks in Edwin Jackson deal.  Hudson was at #66 by BA before the season, but fell outside of Law's top 100.
  • Generally speaking the stock of these traded players dropped at least a little since they cracked preseason top 100 prospect lists.  Hudson might be the exception, as he proved he could hold his own at Triple A. 

Traded In The Offseason

How about players who were considered top 100 prospects before the 2009 season, traded within the last year?  Michael Main (SP), James McDonald (SP), Andrew Lambo (OF), Daniel Schlereth (RP), and Aaron Cunningham (OF) fit the bill.

25 Potentially Available Relievers

Contenders are almost always on the lookout for bullpen help after the All-Star break.  The Rays, Red Sox, Phillies, and Reds are a few clubs that may continue the hunt into August.  Here's a look at who might be available, including their 2010 salaries, 2011 buyouts, and no-trade protection. 

  • Brian Fuentes, Angels (LHP) - $9MM.  The Angels are eight games out with a 2.5% shot at the playoffs.  If they give up on the season, unloading some of Fuentes' contract makes sense.  He's pitched decently and flashed the ability to neutralize lefties in various seasons. 
  • Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks (RHP) - $8.5MM.  Webb may try to come back as a reliever, but the latest word is of a skipped bullpen session.  A trade seems a long shot.  Gil Meche fits into this boat as well, but he's owed big money in 2011. 
  • Trevor Hoffman, Brewers (RHP) – $7.5MM, $500K buyout, can block trades to 25 teams.  Perhaps Hoffman would prefer to close out the season with a contender.  He was decent in June and July.  On July 28th, Hoffman told MLB.com's Adam McCalvy he hasn't thought about the trade possibility and he's comfortable in Milwaukee. 
  • Fernando Rodney, Angels (RHP) - $5.5MM in '10 and '11.  Maybe the Angels view Rodney as their closer for 2011, or maybe they'll acknowledge his flaws and try to escape the contract. 
  • Scott Linebrink, White Sox (RHP) - $5.5MM, no-trade protection.  He's been homer-prone, but has whiffed a batter per inning.  A trade back to the NL with the Sox picking up most of the tab could work. 
  • Scot Shields, Angels (RHP) - $5.35MM.  The lifelong Angel is healthy this year but the numbers haven't been there. 
  • Koji Uehara, Orioles (RHP) - $5MM.  He battled an elbow strain but has pitched well in limited samples.   
  • David Riske, Brewers (RHP) – $4.5MM, $250K buyout.  Back from Tommy John surgery, Riske hasn't been terrible. 
  • George Sherrill, Dodgers (LHP) - $4.5MM, arbitration-eligible for '11, cleared waivers in July.  It's difficult to find a silver lining in Sherrill's season. 
  • Brandon Lyon, Astros (RHP) – $4.25MM in '10, $5.25MM in '11, $5.5MM in '12.  The major difference from last year: groundballs are down.  The Astros are stuck with this contract.
  • Rafael Betancourt, Rockies (RHP) - $3.775MM in '10 and '11.  His strikeout and walk rates are fantastic, but he allows tons of flyballs and home runs.  Betancourt may be a popular trade target this month. 
  • LaTroy Hawkins, Brewers (RHP) – $3MM in 2010, $4MM in '11.  He's had a couple of scoreless appearances since coming off the DL July 30th from a shoulder injury.  He'd need several more to spark interest. 
  • Pedro Feliciano, Mets (LHP) - $2.9MM.  Too many walks against righties, but remains death to lefties.  His likely Type B status may be a factor in the Mets' decision. 
  • Jason Frasor, Blue Jays (RHP) – $2.65MM.  The Blue Jays could still trade Frasor now if they'd prefer not to risk offering him arbitration for a potential draft pick after the season. 
  • Aaron Heilman, Diamondbacks (RHP) - $2.15MM.  Heilman is Arizona's de facto closer, not that he's pitched well in terms of peripheral stats. 
  • Todd Coffey, Brewers (RHP) – $2.025MM, arbitration-eligible for '11.  He'd be a reasonable seventh-inning addition for a contender. 
  • Brian Tallet, Blue Jays (LHP) – $2MM, arbitration-eligible for '11.  He's been solid against lefties this year, so maybe the Jays will eat some money and send him off. 
  • Tony Pena, White Sox (RHP) – $1.2MM, arbitration-eligible for '11 and '12.  This isn't what the Sox had in mind when they traded Brandon Allen for Pena, but they might consider moving him now rather than non-tendering him after the season. 
  • Mark Hendrickson, Orioles (LHP) - $1.2MM, $1.2MM club option for '11 with $200K buyout.  Handles lefties, comes cheap, really tall – what's not to like?
  • Miguel Batista, Nationals (RHP) - $1MM.  The Nats may prefer to keep him around as Stephen Strasburg's understudy.
  • Manny Delcarmen, Red Sox (RHP) - $905K, arbitration-eligible for '11 and '12.  The Red Sox seem willing to move him, but perhaps they'll want to add someone first. 
  • Joe Beimel, Rockies (LHP) - $850K.  His 2.81 ERA is nice, but his other numbers predict rougher times. 
  • Elmer Dessens, Mets (RHP) - $700K.  Another case of a good ERA and bad peripherals. 
  • Chad Gaudin, Yankees (RHP) - $700K.  Could be expendable if Alfredo Aceves returns.
  • Joel Peralta, Nationals (RHP) – $400K, arbitration-eligible for '11.  Small sample, but he's pitched well aside from a wealth of flyballs. 
  • Note: the wheels are already in motion for potential trades of Chris Resop and/or Chan Ho Park.

Players Not Traded At The Deadline

Even with all of the moves that occurred prior to this afternoon's non-waiver trade deadline, there are still plenty of players that did not change teams even though we thought they would. Let's recap the guys that did not move this year…

  • Adam Dunn: Nationals GM Mike Rizzo wanted to be blown away in any Dunn deal, and even though several clubs inquired, he never found an offer to his liking. Dunn isn't a lock to clear trade waivers in August.
  • Jose Bautista: The Major League homerun king drew plenty of interest for obvious reasons, but his versatility gave him even more value than your typical slugger. The Blue Jays are content keeping their top hitter after no one was willing to meet their demands.
  • David DeJesus: Nothing but a case of bad luck here, DeJesus tore a ligament in his thumb crashing into the wall last week, ending his season prematurely.
  • Joe Beimel: Lefty relievers are always on the move at the deadline, but Colorado couldn't find a taker for Beimel. He could easily be on the move next month.
  • Brett Myers: Even though Houston gutted their team by dealing Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman, they chose to not only hang onto Myers, but they're close to giving him a multi-year extension.
  • The Blue Jays Bullpen: The trio of Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, and Kevin Gregg were very much available, but the Matt Capps trade set the market, and no one was willing to go there for any of these guys.
  • Adam LaRoche & Kelly Johnson: The Diamondbacks held a mini-firesale, but the right side of their infield stayed put. Both could be had in August, LaRoche more likely than Johnson.
  • David Aardsma & Brandon League: Seattle was expected to shop their end-game bullpen duo, but with both players under team control for a few more seasons, the Mariners weren't desperate to move either. No one blew them away with an offer, so Aardsma and League stayed put.

For every team that made a move to improve, there was another that didn't do anything. Here is a look at the clubs that were unable to pull the trigger on a deal…

  • Red Sox: Even though the Sox picked up Jarrod Saltalamacchia, GM Theo Epstein told ESPN Boston's Gordon Edes that it was an "empty feeling" not being able to add a reliever or outfield depth.
  • Mets: The Amazins were reportedly after both rotation and bullpen help, but they didn't make a single move before the deadline.
  • Giants: GM Brian Sabean did add some reinforcements for his bullpen, but he did not add any offensive help despite casting a wide net.
  • Brewers: Milwaukee's deadline plans took a big hit when Corey Hart injured his wrist, keeping him on the bench for the last week or so. Even though Prince Fielder's name was mentioned in rumors, he was unlikely to be moved unless someone offered GM Doug Melvin a package he couldn't refuse.
  • Athletics: Like the Brewers, the A's deadline plans were sabotaged by injury. Ben Sheets hit the disabled list with an elbow issue, though the team didn't seem interested in moving him anyway. GM Billy Beane never seemed fond of moving Coco Crisp either.
  • Reds: Cincinnati was a somewhat surprise contender for both Cliff Lee and Dan Haren, but GM Walt Jocketty ended up sitting on his hands and making no trades before the deadline.
  • Rockies: Stuck trying to figure out if they were buyers or sellers, the Rockies didn't move any of their veterans: Aaron Cook, Brad Hawpe, and Melvin Mora among others.

There are sure to be plenty of moves made during the waiver period in August, so these teams will still have ample opportunity to fill these holes. If you're unclear how post-July 31st trades occur, make sure you check out our primer. Last year we saw players like Scott Kazmir, Jim Thome, Carl Pavano, Alex Gonzalez, Brad Penny, Aubrey Huff, Billy Wagner, Jon Garland, and Ivan Rodriguez change teams in August, so there are definitely going to be quality players available on the market next month.

2010 Trade Deadline Recap

There was certainly no shortage of moves not just today, but in the several days leading up to this afternoon's non-waiver trade deadline. The dominoes started to fall when the Rangers beat out the Yankees for Cliff Lee and Dan Haren landed with the Angels, and the action hasn't stopped since. Here's a recap of all the major moves that were made recently…

AL East

AL Central

AL West

NL East

NL Central

NL West

Show all