Uncategorized News & Rumors

Free agent reliever Juan Cruz is having season-ending shoulder surgery today, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney.  Olney says Cruz has a cyst in his shoulder and should be ready for winter ball.

Cruz, 31, was released by the Royals on April 23rd.  They're on the hook for his $3.25MM salary this season, plus a $500K buyout for his 2011 option.  The injury explains why the Royals gave up on him after five appearances this year and he did not sign elsewhere after his release.

With more and more young players signing long-term extensions that buy out arbitration and free agent years, the amount of talent in future free agent classes isn't as impressive as it could be. Here's a list of players who would have been free agents for the first time after this season (meaning they will accrue their sixth full year of service time in 2010), but instead are still under contract for another year or two (or more)…

• Joe Blanton: The Phils have Blanton under contract for $17.5MM total in 2011 and 2012. There's plenty of value in being a league average workhorse, so he might have been able to find more on the open market.
• Zack Greinke: Kansas City owes the reigning Cy Young Award winner $13.5MM in both 2011 and 2012. He would have been the most sought after free agent in years, and would have been in a position to challenge CC Sabathia's $161MM record deal.
• Dan Haren: Arizona wisely locked up their ace, and will pay him $12.75MM in both 2011 and 2012. They also hold a $15.5MM option for 2013 ($3.5MM buyout). Haren would have been in line for a deal similar to the five year, $82.5MM contracts signed by John Lackey and A.J. Burnett, if not more.
• Maicer Izturis: The Halos control him for the next two seasons at just $6.9MM total.
• Scott Kazmir: He's under contract for $12MM in 2011 with a $13.5MM club option for 2013 that could be bought out for $2.5MM. Could he have done better than one year, $14.5MM guaranteed on the open market? 
• Yadier Molina: The youngest Molina brother will earn $5.25MM in 2011, and St. Louis will presumably pick up his $7MM option for 2012. Given the dearth of quality catchers, he definitely would have found more than $12.25MM on the open market.
• Justin Morneau: He'll earn $14MM each year from 2011-2013. The market for players with Morneau's skill set has dropped off considerably, but his age (still just 29) would have been a help.
• Brandon Phillips: It feels like he's been around forever, but Phillips wouldn't have been eligible for free agency for the first time until after this season. The Reds owe him $11MM in 2011, then have to decide between $12MM option or a $1MM buyout for 2012.
• Alexis Rios: Would Rios have been able to the match the $50MM he's owed through 2014?
• Ramon Santiago: Detroit owes their utility infielder $1.25MM next season. Not bad scratch for a bench player.
• Grady Sizemore: Cleveland locked Sizemore up super early in his career, and still have him under contract for $7.5MM next year with an $8.5MM option for the year after. He would have been one of the most sought after free agents after the season.
• Chris Snyder: He's guaranteed $6.5MM after this season, possibly more if the D'Backs pick up $6.75MM option for 2012.
• Huston Street: He has yet to pitch this year, but Colorado owes their closer $15.3MM over the next two seasons, and there's also a $9MM mutual option for 2013. Considering his shoulder injury, he's probably glad to have the guaranteed money coming to him.
• Nick Swisher: The Yanks owe Swisher $9MM for 2011, then have to decide between a $10MM salary or a $1MM buyout for 2012. He probably would have been able to find more than that as a free agent.
• Kevin Youkilis: The Red Sox control their first baseman for $12MM in both 2011 and 2012, then could retain him for 2013 with a $13MM option or a $1MM buyout. He would have bested that on the open market.
• David Wright: The Mets have their franchise player under contract for two more years at $29MM total. He might have been able to quadruple that as a free agent.

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contract for the info.

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A player with full no-trade rights controls his destiny.  Looking at Cot's Baseball Contracts, here's an attempted list of players with such protection for 2010.  If we missed anyone, contact us.

• Jason Bay
• Carlos Beltran
• Lance Berkman
• Ryan Braun
• Mark Buehrle – gains 10-and-5 rights on July 16th.  If traded, salary for 2010 and '11 increases by $1MM annually, and a guaranteed $15MM for 2012 is added. 
• Chris Carpenter
• Eric Chavez
• Ryan Dempster
• Yovani Gallardo - full through 2012
• Carlos Guillen
• Cristian Guzman
• Roy Halladay
• Todd Helton
• Matt Holliday
• Tim Hudson
• Raul Ibanez
• Derek Jeter
• Chipper Jones
• Paul Konerko
• Carlos Lee
• Derrek Lee
• Kyle Lohse
• Hideki Matsui
• Daisuke Matsuzaka
• Joe Mauer
• Magglio Ordonez
• David Ortiz
• Roy Oswalt
• Jake Peavy
• A.J. Pierzynski – gains 10-and-5 rights on June 14th
• Jorge Posada
• Aramis Ramirez – receives $1MM assignment bonus if traded.  2012 option for $16MM becomes guaranteed if Ramirez is traded and exercises his '11 player option.
• Manny Ramirez
• Mariano Rivera
• Alex Rodriguez
• Scott Rolen
• Jimmy Rollins
• C.C. Sabathia
• Jeff Samardzija
• Johan Santana
• Alfonso Soriano
• Mark Teixeira
• Chase Utley
• Jason Varitek
• Tim Wakefield
• Vernon Wells
• Carlos Zambrano
• Barry Zito

With the trade deadline still off in the distance, and few names remaining on the free agent market, May generally isn't one of the most exciting months for baseball's hot stove. However, as the month progresses, the standings will continue to take shape, and buyers and sellers should begin to emerge. With a look back at May 2009, let's predict the sort of stories we can expect this May….

• Underachieving teams will often show their managers the door around this time of year, with a few weeks of action in the books. Last season, the Diamondbacks fired Bob Melvin and the Rockies parted ways with Clint Hurdle. This year? A recent hot streak eased the pressure on the Mets' Jerry Manuel a little, and the Orioles' Dave Trembley is likely hoping for a similar run. His O's completed a sweep of the Red Sox yesterday, but are still just 7-18.
• A few deals that eventually took place prior to July's trade deadline were foreshadowed in May: the Phillies, reeling from the loss of Brett Myers, were aiming for a high-impact starter and would later land Cliff Lee. The Red Sox were considering moving Brad Penny, and ultimately released the right-hander in August. And, of course, Jake Peavy nixed a blockbuster deal that would've sent him to the White Sox, but eventually ended up in Chicago anyway.
• Speaking of Peavy, he was baseball's most-discussed trade target last May, an honor that this year could go to another Padre: Adrian Gonzalez.
• Occasionally, we'll see an under-the-radar early-season trade that ends up making an impact. On May 9th last year, the Athletics' acquisition of Adam Kennedy didn't turn many heads, but Kennedy enjoyed one of his best seasons, hitting .289/.343/.410 and stealing 20 bases for Oakland.
• We were already speculating last May about what Joe Mauer's next contract might look like, though Mauer didn't sign an extension until the spring of 2010. Cardinals fans hoping to hear good news about an Albert Pujols extension in the near future, take note. Your patience may be tested.
• The case of David Ortiz provides an explicit case of history repeating itself. A year ago, there was speculation that the Red Sox would have to explore other options to replace Ortiz's dwindling production. Big Papi turned things around in 2009, but similar opinions are being expressed this season after the 34-year-old once again started slowly.
• Don't forget that June's First-Year Player Draft is right around the corner. Last May, Stephen Strasburg dominated pre-draft coverage, while this year it's Bryce Harper's name that keeps popping up.

You can't do much with a month's worth of data, but we like to look anyway.  Wins Above Replacement is a good way to boil down any player's contribution to one number.  Pulling data from FanGraphs, these 2011 free agents are potentially raising their stock.  Of course, WAR isn't everything, as Felipe Lopez can attest after signing for a million bucks following a 4.6 win season.

• Carl Crawford – 1.4 WAR
• Paul Konerko – 1.4
• Alex Gonzalez – 1.3 (has a club option)
• Ty Wigginton – 1.2
• Johnny Damon – 1.2
• Brad Penny – 1.1
• Magglio Ordonez – 1.0 (has a vesting option)
• Jorge Cantu – 1.0
• Austin Kearns – 1.0
• Andy Pettitte – 0.9
• Carl Pavano – 0.9
• Miguel Olivo – 0.9 (has a club/mutual option)
• Jayson Werth – 0.8
• Orlando Hudson – 0.8
• Hiroki Kuroda – 0.8
• Andruw Jones – 0.8
• Derek Jeter – 0.7
• Miguel Tejada – 0.7

Sample size be damned, let's take a look at the players who are off to slow starts after being dealt in the offseason:

• Javier Vazquez: Vazquez has struggled mightily so far in his return to New York.  In five starts, the 33-year-old has an ERA of 9.78 with 7.8 K/9 and a ghastly 5.9 BB/9.  Something is definitely off with Vazquez, as the velocity on his fastball has dipped from 91.1 mph last season to 88.9 mph this year.
• Melky Cabrera: How about the Braves' end of the trade?  The Melk Man is hitting .195/.287/.221 so far in 88 plate appearances.  Cabrera has been a great value in years past, but at this rate he won't be worth his reasonable $2.6MM salary for 2010.
• Juan Pierre: It seemed as though the White Sox acquired Pierre from the Dodgers on the cheap this winter, both monetarily and talent-wise.  Los Angeles is on the hook for $10.5MM of the $18MM owed to the speedy outfielder in the next two seasons.  However, after having one of the best offensive seasons of his career in 2009, Pierre has an OPS of .447.
• Curtis Granderson: Somehow, the Yankees have the third highest winning percentage in the majors and two players on this list.  Granderson has a slash line of .225/.311/.375 thus far and will look to boost those numbers when he returns from the DL.  Meanwhile, Austin Jackson is doing quite well in Detroit.
• Julio Lugo: I told y'all we'd see Julio again.  The right-handed batter is OPSing .274 for the O's this season.  However, it should be noted that Lugo has made just 30 plate appearances thus far this season.  That's a rather diminutive sample size, even for a month-old season.
• Kevin Kouzmanoff: The A's picked up Kouzmanoff in a deal with the Padres in January.  The third baseman has started in 24 of Oakland's 26 games this season and is hitting .245/.284/.319.

What other traded players have struggled thus far in 2010?

We're one month into the season, and while it's obviously too early to tell which offseason trades will benefit their teams the most, let's take a look at some of the hot starts for players who were traded this offseason:

• Roy Halladay: What more could you expect? Doc's been masterful for the Phils. He's already hurled three complete games and whiffed 39 hitters through 49 innings of 1.47 ERA ball, while walking just four. His 52.2% groundball rate's not too shabby either.
• Austin Jackson: For the time being, A-Jax has Tiger fans saying "Curtis who?" Jackson's 3-for-5 performance today raised his line for the season to .367/.420/.495. He's got 10 extra base hits and has swiped five bags in six tries. His 31.7% K-rate and absurd .514 BABIP entering today's game make him a lock to regress, but he's been everything Detroit has wanted and more so far.
• Kevin Millwood: Acquired by Baltimore for Chris Ray in order to stabilize their rotation, Millwood has been terrific through six starts despite not registering a win. He's fanned 32 batters in 40 innings against just 11 walks, and held batters to a .253 average en route to a tidy 3.15 ERA so far. It's been a tough season for Baltimore, but Millwood's been a bright spot. If he can keep this up, he could reach Type-A status or bring in some prospects at the deadline this summer.
• Carlos Silva: Tough to even fathom mentioning "The Chief" here, but despite a rough start in his last outing, he's gotten the job done. Silva's utilized good control (6 BB through 31 IP) to compile a 2.90 ERA as a key member of the Cubs' rotation thus far. He's even managed a 6.1 K/9, which is significantly higher than his career mark of 3.84.
• Rafael Soriano: After years of questionable ninth-inning solutions, the Rays grabbed a seemingly more solid option when they acquired Soriano. He's registered six saves in six tries this season while posting a 2.45 ERA. Soriano has K'ed nine batters through 11 innings and has helped the Rays to the best record in baseball.
• Adam Rosales: More under-the-radar than the other names on this list, Rosales has hit well in Oakland, posting a line of .323/.375/.462 while appearing at four positions. His versatility and offense have been a welcome addition for A's fans through the season's first month.

We saw our fair share of trades this offseason; who else comes to mind when discussing players who have thrived since being traded?

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Yesterday we looked at free agents off to hot starts; now it's time to do the opposite.  Last year this list included Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia, but also Oliver Perez and Pat Burrell.

• Rod Barajas, Mets.  Not much was expected from Barajas in the OBP department, but a .194/.224/.355 line isn't going to cut it.  Also, despite a three home run game and a .468 SLG, John Buck sits among the OBP trailers at .239.  I liked the Gregg Zaun signing, but he's hitting just .220/.299/.288.
• Jerry Hairston Jr., Padres.  Versatility doesn't mean much when you're hitting .231/.242/.246.
• Jonny Gomes, Reds.  I liked this bargain signing, but Gomes isn't doing much at .214/.254/.375.
• Garrett Atkins, Orioles.  He's losing playing time given a .238/.262/.302 start.
• Pedro Feliz, Astros.  The left side of the Astros' infield is really struggling offensively.  Infielders Orlando Cabrera, Jack Wilson, and Adam Kennedy are also excelling at making outs, while Mark DeRosa has shown no power.
• Nick Johnson, Yankees.  Bizarre line for Johnson: .143/.385/.232.  Even when nothing else is working, Johnson is second in MLB in walks.  Chone Figgins has had a similar start. 
• Ken Griffey Jr., Mariners.  He's better than .226/.293/.245, but many opposed this signing from the start.
• Troy Glaus, Braves.  He's at .200/.300/.300, and the Braves have to be pondering alternatives.
• Doug Davis, Brewers.  He's basically allowed an earned run per inning so far.
• Todd Wellemeyer, Giants.  The team's fifth starter has a 6.33 ERA through four starts.
• Trevor Hoffman, Brewers.  Hoffman leads baseball with four blown saves; at some point the Brewers have to try someone else in the ninth inning.
• Jason Marquis, Nationals.  He made three ugly starts and headed to the DL with an elbow injury.
• Rich Harden, Rangers.  He leads baseball with 23 walks allowed.
• Vicente Padilla, Dodgers.  He sports a 7.06 ERA and a forearm injury.
• John Grabow, Cubs.  With a 7.04 ERA, Grabow hasn't been the setup man the Cubs envisioned.  Brendan Donnelly, Octavio Dotel, and Bob Howry are also getting knocked around.
• Mike Gonzalez, Orioles.  His terrible start led to a shoulder-related DL stint.