Uncategorized News & Rumors

As Kevin Goldstein noted in this June 2nd ESPN article, Scott Boras clients aren't dropping in the draft as much as they used to.  Still, it's always good to be aware of which potential top draft picks Boras' company represents.  Thanks to Goldstein and Baseball America for these names.  The linked player names go to MLB.com scouting reports.  Harper, Machado, Harvey, Colon, and Ranaudo project as potential first-round picks, according to the experts.

• Seth Blair, college RHP 
• Gary Brown, college OF
• Christian Colon, college SS
• Bryce Harper, junior college C
• Matt Harvey, college RHP
• Jacoby Jones, high school SS
• Manny Machado, high school SS
• James Paxton, independent league LHP 
• Greg Peavey, college RHP 
• Brian Ragira, high school OF 
• Anthony Ranaudo, college RHP 
• DeAndre Smelter, high school RHP
• LeVon Washington, junior college OF 

Last December, 39 players were non-tendered by their clubs, sending them in search of new employment. We're now two months into this season, and those who have found a home on a major league club have begun to settle into their new surroundings. Let's take a look at some of the notable names from that list and see how they've fared early on:

• Matt Capps signed a one-year deal with Washington for $3.5MM and has been tremendous so far. While he's slipped recently, allowing runs in four of his last five outings, he's still got a 2.96 ERA, an 8.51 K/9, and 17 saves.
• Kelly Johnson had a scorching April, mashing 17 extra base hits (nine homers) en route to a 1.154 OPS for the month. He's hit just .200 in May, but owns a .253/.357/.553 line for Arizona after signing for one year at $2.35MM.
• After being cut loose by the Royals, John Buck signed with Toronto for one year and $2MM. He's hitting .267/.315/.533, hitting eight home runs and throwing out 19.2% of thieves on the basepaths.
• D.J. Carrasco has increased his walks (3.64 BB/9) but his strikeouts as well (7.28 K/9) since being non-tendered by the White Sox and signing with Pittsburgh for $950K. The righty has notched 29.2 innings and a 3.94 ERA for the Buccos while allowing just one home run.
• Scott Olsen was non-tendered by the Nationals, but re-signed with club a day later for a $1MM base salary. After a rough start, the lefty strung together five great outings, though struggled in his last and was placed on the DL. Olsen has a 3.77 ERA, 6.7 K/9, and 2.93 BB/9 through 43 innings (eight starts) this season.
• Like Olsen, Jonny Gomes re-signed with his former team after being non-tendered. Gomes has been great for the Reds so far, hitting .307/.354/.543 through 148 PAs.
• After being non-tendered by Atlanta, Ryan Church signed with Pittsburgh for one year and $1.5MM. Plagued by some bad luck (.240 BABIP), Church is off to just a .208/.255/.354 start. The BABIP may explain the low average, but Church's normally keen eye has dissipated as well (4.9 BB%).
• A change of scenery wasn't what the doctor ordered for Garrett Atkins. Since finding a new home in Baltimore, the former Rockies powerhouse has hit just .214/.261/.294 with one home run.
• Ryan Garko signed with the Mariners after being non-tendered by the Giants, however he failed to make the team out of Spring Training and was waived. The Rangers claimed him, but he managed just three hits in 38 plate appearances before clearing waivers and being sent to Triple-A.

After spending the last four months in the Dominican Republic attending numerous tryouts and speaking with MLB executives and scouts, I have compiled a top ten list for this year's July 2nd class.  These rankings provide a reflection of the industry's perspective.  Before we delve into the top ten, here's a brief explanation about the Latin American market. 

Scouting Latin Americans is starkly different than scouting players for the MLB amateur draft in the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico. Since the vast majority of Dominican prospects do not play in organized leagues, teams frequently host private tryouts at their respective complexes to judge these players.  The goal of these workouts is to showcase and evaluate the players' five tools.  A typical tryout consists of running the 60 (speed), throwing and fielding from their position (arm and defense), a few rounds of batting practice (bat and power), and maybe a simulated or live game.  These workouts usually last for less than half a day and players can easily be evaluated incorrectly with a stronger or weaker-than-usual showing. Sometimes prospects are invited to stay and work out with the team for up to a month, but the highest-profile players are usually in too high demand to stay in one place for more than a day or two.

Because there is no draft in the international market, every player is a free agent. Mix identity issues with six or seven-figure bonuses, and rumors and name changes abound.  My goal is to deliver accurate information on the top Dominican players for July 2nd, with more detail to come.

1. Vicmal De La Cruz, OF.  Has the best toolset of any player in this class. Upside as high as anyone.

2. Martin Steylon Peguero, SS.  Hands down the best shortstop of this year's class.

3. Ariel Ovando, OF. – When two different scouts drop Darryl Strawberry comps, you take notice.

4. Phillips Castillo, OF.  This outfielder is a lock for seven figures.

5. Wilmer Romero, OF.  Still a bit of an unknown, but has the potential to move up on this list.

6. Eskarlin Vazquez, OF.  Perhaps the most publicized player in this year's class. At 6'3", Vazquez has a projectable frame with good pop.

7. Jorge Feliz, RHP.  A 92 mph fastball and feel for a curve earns him the highest pitcher’s spot.

8. Alberto Triunfel, SS.  Little brother to Carlos Triunfel, Alberto also has Scott Boras as his agent.

9. Elvis Sanchez, 3B.  His body has improved tremendously over the past year, allowing the possibility of sticking at third base for the long haul.  If he continues to show off-the-charts power, it may be irrelevant.

T-10. Edwin Moreno, OF.  Left-handed outfielder with pop and a strong body.

T-10. Luis Abad, RHP.  Hitting 92 mph and weighing 160 pounds soaking wet, the 6'3" Abad is one of the most projectable pitchers you'll see.

T-10. Javier Pimentel, SS.  A wide-shouldered shortstop with a solid bat and plenty of room for improvement.

As you'd expect, front offices are currently spending a lot of time preparing for the draft, which takes place June 7th-9th.  ESPN's Buster Olney spoke to one GM about the likely timetable on trading:  "I think the draft is preoccupying everybody.  Once you get past the draft, you'll probably see some stuff start to happen."

Our post yesterday showed that progression to be typical – of the handful of significant June trades in recent years, most took place during the final week.  The Pirates and Braves were a rare exception last year, working out the Nate McLouth deal six days before the draft.

One Olney source speculates that teams may be rewarded for shopping veterans aggressively and trying to move contracts quickly.  Theoretically, clubs like the Orioles, Indians, and Astros could save more money by offering an extra month of a player's services.  Olney notes that "it appears that there are going to be very few teams willing to take on significant dollars."

June is around the corner, and trade talks will begin in earnest.  Most of the bigger recent June deals occurred toward the end of the month; let's take a look.

• June 3rd, 2009: Pirates traded Nate McLouth to the Braves for Charlie Morton, Gorkys Hernandez, and Jeff Locke.  Pirates GM Neal Huntington could not resist the Braves' offer.  McLouth has been disappointing for Atlanta, while the players the Pirates acquired still retain promise.
• June 27th, 2009:  Indians traded Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals for Chris Perez and Jess Todd.  DeRosa injured his wrist days after the trade and didn't produce in St. Louis.  The book isn't closed on the Cards' side, as they snagged the #46 pick in this year's draft when DeRosa left as a free agent.  Perez has a 3.51 ERA, 9.6 K/9, and 3.9 BB/9 in his Indians career, picking up a few saves along the way.  Todd has yet to experience big league success. 
• June 29th, 2007: Athletics traded Milton Bradley and cash to the Padres for Andrew Brown.  Bradley raked for the '07 Padres, who just missed the playoffs.  Bradley's season ended with a torn ACL on a bizarre incident.  Given the uncertainty, GM Kevin Towers decided not to offer arbitration.  Brown was released by the A's in January of '09. 
• June 30th, 2006: Mariners traded Asdrubal Cabrera to the Indians for Eduardo Perez.  A month later GM Bill Bavasi would trade Shin-Soo Choo to the Indians along with another player for Ben Broussard and cash.  Choo became a star, while Cabrera is Cleveland's starting shortstop (he's currently recovering from a broken forearm).  Both first basemen struggled in Seattle, though Broussard stuck around through the following season and was dealt for Tug Hulett.  Thinking short-term, Bavasi did a lot of damage in the course of about a month.
• June 24th, 2004: Royals traded Carlos Beltran to the Astros for Octavio Dotel and John Buck; Royals traded Dotel to Athletics for Mark Teahen and Mike Wood.  The Astros of course got a ton from Beltran in his brief time with the club.  They added Eli Iorg and Tommy Manzella as draft picks for Beltran's departure.  Teahen, Buck, and Wood were mostly disappointing for Kansas City.  One thread of the Beltran deal is still somewhat alive for them in the form of Chris Getz and Josh Fields. 

Roughly a half-dozen teams may be shopping credible starting pitching at this year's trade deadline.  Let's play matchmaker and examine potential buyers.

• Nationals.  As I wrote on May 6th, the Nationals should acquire starting pitching as soon as possible.  Reinforcements are on the way, but with Scott Olsen hitting the DL there is too much uncertainty. 
• Blue Jays.  Jesse Litsch will be back in June, but one veteran addition would help.
• Tigers.  Max Scherzer could be a shot in the arm if he straightens things out in Triple A.  Otherwise, they have Rick Porcello, Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis, and Armando Galarraga backing up Justin Verlander.
• Diamondbacks.  Brandon Webb might be all this team needs, but he's working on a new arm slot as he rehabs from shoulder surgery.  It may take another month.
• Red Sox.  Josh Beckett is on the DL with a back strain, so Tim Wakefield stepped in.  Boston's interest in starting pitching might be limited to the possibility of renting Cliff Lee. 
• Reds.  Homer Bailey's shoulder tightness is a concern, but the Reds' biggest gains will probably come from continued improvements by Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang. 
• Angels.  They've got their starting five, so they might just have to hope for better things from Joel Pineiro and Scott Kazmir. 
• Dodgers. John Ely has been excellent and Vicente Padilla has been working his way back, so the Dodgers' interest in starting pitching might be limited to aces.
• Mets.  Mike Pelfrey has emerged behind Johan Santana.  Jon Niese has a spot when he returns from a hamstring strain and Hisanori Takahashi looked good against the Yankees.  The Mets should still look to add at least one starter, but most people felt that way during the offseason.

Starting pitching is always the biggest need at the trade deadline.  Over two months remain until July 31st, but we may have enough data to determine who's selling.

• Orioles.  They'll presumably have Kevin Millwood up for auction.  The 35-year-old righty is winless in ten starts despite the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career and a league-leading 68 innings.  The Orioles are paying him $9MM this year and would have to get around his limited no-trade clause.  The O's can also offer 31-year-old righty Jeremy Guthrie, who's trimmed walks this year and sports a 3.86 ERA.  Guthrie is more than a rental; he's under team control through 2012.
• Indians.  A Jake Westbrook trade seems inevitable.  He's finally back from Tommy John surgery and has retained his ability to generate grounders.  His $11MM salary will limit the Indians' return.
• Royals.  They could part with Gil Meche, but he's been walking everyone this year after dealing with shoulder pain in April.  He earns $12MM this year and the same in '11, so interest will be minimal.  Brian Bannister might be a better trade candidate.  The 29-year-old righty is under team control through '12, just like Guthrie.
• White Sox.  If the Sox quit on the season, they could consider dealing Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, or even John Danks.  Buehrle is well-paid and will get 10-and-5 rights on July 6th.  If dealt, his contract is expanded to cover 2012 at $15MM.  Garcia hasn't shown much promise this year.  Danks has been dominant and is under team control through '12, but the Sox would presumably need a ton to cash him in now.
• Mariners.  They'd have the best rental trade chip of any team: Cliff Lee, being paid just $9MM this year.  The Ms would also want to dump Ian Snell, who is likely to be non-tendered after having his '11 option declined.
• Astros.  They could market three veteran starters, led of course by Roy Oswalt.  We've discussed Oswalt quite a bit at MLBTR, but the Astros may also trade Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez.  Myers is having a resurgent season and has only a mutual option for '11.  Rodriguez has slipped from his breakout '09 and is under team control through '11.
• Brewers.  They can offer up veterans Dave Bush, Doug Davis, and Jeff Suppan, if anyone will have them.  The goal here would be just to free up a few million bucks.
• The Pirates, Cubs, and Diamondbacks could become sellers, with Brandon Webb the most interesting potential name.  The Athletics, Angels, Braves, and Padres could offer a few arms if things head south.

The starting pitching trade market may feature a pair of aces in Oswalt and Lee, with the cost-conscious buyers gravitating toward Lee.  Millwood, Westbrook, and Myers are three likely veteran rentals.  The undefined segment of the market is those under team control beyond 2010 – we don't know whether Guthrie, Bannister, Danks, and Rodriguez can be had.

Looking for left-handed relief?  Here's a look at the projected trade market.

• Aaron Laffey is doing a nice job against southpaws for the Indians, and he's under team control for the foreseeable future.  Rafael Perez should also be available, but he hasn't been effective in a while.
• The Pirates could move Jack Taschner and Javier Lopez.  Taschner has strong peripherals against lefties, aside from hits allowed.
• Matt Thornton has been dominant and is capable of closing, but the White Sox might want him around for next year.  He has a reasonable $3MM club option.
• The Orioles can offer a pair of veteran southpaws in Will Ohman and Mark Hendrickson.  Ohman sports a 0.00 ERA, but he's walked 5.4 per nine.
• The Dodgers' George Sherrill is a non-tender candidate after the season, as he's earning $4.5MM this year.  He's had a rough year so far, with 12 walks and 15 hits in 13 innings.  The Dodgers have a more appealing lefty in Hong-Chih Kuo, who is superb when healthy.
• Teams would probably line up for the Brewers' Manny Parra, but he's currently in the rotation while Doug Davis is on the DL.

Cubs GM Jim Hendry recently explained to the Chicago Sun-Times that he'd like to add a right-handed reliever, but they're hard to come by on the trade market.  For the Cubs and other interested teams, which righty relievers might be out there soon?

• Kyle Farnsworth has done tolerable work so far this year.  He's being paid $4.5MM, plus a $500K buyout after the season.  The Royals would probably eat a significant portion.  The Indians will have to get creative to move Kerry Wood, who is earning $10.5MM.  The Orioles' Koji Uehara was recently activated from the DL.  At $5MM, the O's would presumably be happy to move a portion of his contract.
• If the White Sox decide to sell, they could potentially blow up their bullpen.  Tony Pena, Bobby Jenks, J.J. Putz, and Scott Linebrink would have varying degrees of trade value.  The Astros could do the same, with Matt Lindstrom the most attractive piece.  The Brewers have inventory, but no one too useful.
• The Mariners have three controlled, quality arms in David Aardsma, Brandon League, and Mark Lowe.  Lowe is currently on the DL with a back injury.  If the Ms start looking to next year, one of the three might be traded.
• The Pirates could look to flip many of their recently-signed free agent relievers, including Octavio Dotel, Brendan Donnelly, and D.J. Carrasco.  Donnelly should return from an oblique strain this week.
• Should the Diamondbacks send up the white flag, Aaron Heilman and Chad Qualls could hit the market.

Some names – Adrian Gonzalez and Roy Oswalt for example – have already surfaced in trade rumors. But some of the players we'll hear about in trade talks this summer have yet to appear. To find out when we should have a good sense of who is available, let's look back to last summer and see when some of the biggest names first appeared in rumors:

• Jake Peavy – Peavy was essentially involved in non-stop trade rumors from the 2008-09 offseason until his near-deal to Chicago in May. Things quieted down for a couple months until the two clubs successfully pulled the deal off in July.
• Victor Martinez – V-Mart first came up in trade rumors around this time last year, when Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports said the Red Sox had inquired on the catcher and exchanged names with the Indians.
• Cliff Lee – The buzz around Lee started early on. Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reported that executives around baseball were chattering about a possible trade on April 24th. That was three weeks after MLBTR's Tim Dierkes wondered aloud if the Indians would deal him.
• Roy Halladay, the player everyone was talking about last summer, wasn't on anyone's radar as an early trade candidate. It wasn't until July that then-GM J.P. Ricciardi told reporters he'd listen to offers for the Blue Jays' ace.

Some of the players we're reading about now will remain in the rumor mill non-stop for a few months, but we haven't necessarily heard all the big names – there could easily be some surprise trade candidates to come.