Uncategorized

We're one month into the season, and while it's obviously too early to tell which offseason trades will benefit their teams the most, let's take a look at some of the hot starts for players who were traded this offseason:

• Roy Halladay: What more could you expect? Doc's been masterful for the Phils. He's already hurled three complete games and whiffed 39 hitters through 49 innings of 1.47 ERA ball, while walking just four. His 52.2% groundball rate's not too shabby either.
• Austin Jackson: For the time being, A-Jax has Tiger fans saying "Curtis who?" Jackson's 3-for-5 performance today raised his line for the season to .367/.420/.495. He's got 10 extra base hits and has swiped five bags in six tries. His 31.7% K-rate and absurd .514 BABIP entering today's game make him a lock to regress, but he's been everything Detroit has wanted and more so far.
• Kevin Millwood: Acquired by Baltimore for Chris Ray in order to stabilize their rotation, Millwood has been terrific through six starts despite not registering a win. He's fanned 32 batters in 40 innings against just 11 walks, and held batters to a .253 average en route to a tidy 3.15 ERA so far. It's been a tough season for Baltimore, but Millwood's been a bright spot. If he can keep this up, he could reach Type-A status or bring in some prospects at the deadline this summer.
• Carlos Silva: Tough to even fathom mentioning "The Chief" here, but despite a rough start in his last outing, he's gotten the job done. Silva's utilized good control (6 BB through 31 IP) to compile a 2.90 ERA as a key member of the Cubs' rotation thus far. He's even managed a 6.1 K/9, which is significantly higher than his career mark of 3.84.
• Rafael Soriano: After years of questionable ninth-inning solutions, the Rays grabbed a seemingly more solid option when they acquired Soriano. He's registered six saves in six tries this season while posting a 2.45 ERA. Soriano has K'ed nine batters through 11 innings and has helped the Rays to the best record in baseball.
• Adam Rosales: More under-the-radar than the other names on this list, Rosales has hit well in Oakland, posting a line of .323/.375/.462 while appearing at four positions. His versatility and offense have been a welcome addition for A's fans through the season's first month.

We saw our fair share of trades this offseason; who else comes to mind when discussing players who have thrived since being traded?

Looking to expand the baseball discussion with MLBTR fans?  Check out our forums, where you can debate hot stove topics as well as the draft, prospects, fantasy baseball, and specific teams.

Yesterday we looked at free agents off to hot starts; now it's time to do the opposite.  Last year this list included Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia, but also Oliver Perez and Pat Burrell.

• Rod Barajas, Mets.  Not much was expected from Barajas in the OBP department, but a .194/.224/.355 line isn't going to cut it.  Also, despite a three home run game and a .468 SLG, John Buck sits among the OBP trailers at .239.  I liked the Gregg Zaun signing, but he's hitting just .220/.299/.288.
• Jerry Hairston Jr., Padres.  Versatility doesn't mean much when you're hitting .231/.242/.246.
• Jonny Gomes, Reds.  I liked this bargain signing, but Gomes isn't doing much at .214/.254/.375.
• Garrett Atkins, Orioles.  He's losing playing time given a .238/.262/.302 start.
• Pedro Feliz, Astros.  The left side of the Astros' infield is really struggling offensively.  Infielders Orlando Cabrera, Jack Wilson, and Adam Kennedy are also excelling at making outs, while Mark DeRosa has shown no power.
• Nick Johnson, Yankees.  Bizarre line for Johnson: .143/.385/.232.  Even when nothing else is working, Johnson is second in MLB in walks.  Chone Figgins has had a similar start. 
• Ken Griffey Jr., Mariners.  He's better than .226/.293/.245, but many opposed this signing from the start.
• Troy Glaus, Braves.  He's at .200/.300/.300, and the Braves have to be pondering alternatives.
• Doug Davis, Brewers.  He's basically allowed an earned run per inning so far.
• Todd Wellemeyer, Giants.  The team's fifth starter has a 6.33 ERA through four starts.
• Trevor Hoffman, Brewers.  Hoffman leads baseball with four blown saves; at some point the Brewers have to try someone else in the ninth inning.
• Jason Marquis, Nationals.  He made three ugly starts and headed to the DL with an elbow injury.
• Rich Harden, Rangers.  He leads baseball with 23 walks allowed.
• Vicente Padilla, Dodgers.  He sports a 7.06 ERA and a forearm injury.
• John Grabow, Cubs.  With a 7.04 ERA, Grabow hasn't been the setup man the Cubs envisioned.  Brendan Donnelly, Octavio Dotel, and Bob Howry are also getting knocked around.
• Mike Gonzalez, Orioles.  His terrible start led to a shoulder-related DL stint.

It's been 20 years since the Oakland A's sent shockwaves through baseball by signing high school righthander Todd Van Poppel to a Major League contract worth more than $1.2MM as the 14th overall pick in the 1990 draft. At the time, the going rate for the first overall draft pick was a minor league deal worth $350K or so, but Van Poppel and his agent leveraged his scholarship to the University of Texas into more than three times that amount.

Contracts given to draftees have since ballooned, and now rival the packages given to established big leaguers in terms of total value. Over the next several weeks, we're going to hear a lot about Scott Boras and Bryce Harper and their purported contract demands as he's expected to be the first overall pick. The 17-year-old catcher from Las Vegas is almost guaranteed to sign one of, if not the most lucrative contract in the history of the MLB draft.

With that in mind, let's take a look at the richest contracts ever given to drafted players.

Major League Contracts

1. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (2009, 1st round, 1st pick): Four years, $15.1MM. $7.5MM of that makes up the largest signing bonus in draft history, and his salary is set through the 2012 season.
2. Mark Prior, Cubs (2001, 1/2): Five years, $10.5MM. Prior's contract allowed him to void the final two years of the deal and instead file for salary arbitration, which he did in 2006. Instead being paid the $2MM his contract called for that season, Prior earned $3.575MM when the two sides settled before a hearing.
3. Mark Teixeira, Rangers (2001, 1/5): Four years, $9.5MM. Teixeira's $4.5MM signing bonus was the largest ever given to a player as part of a big league deal at the time, and it stood as the record until the next player on our list was drafted.
4. David Price, Rays (2007, 1/1): Six years, $8.5MM. Price has a clause similar to Prior in his deal, allowing him to void the $1.5MM he's scheduled to make in 2012 and instead file for arbitration. The early guess is that he will indeed go that route.
5. Pat Burrell, Phillies (1998, 1/1): Five years, $8MM. Pat the Bat's deal marked the beginning of the big money era for draft picks.
6. Dustin Ackley, Mariners (2009, 1/2): Five years, $7.5MM. Ackley can also earn another $2.5MM in salary based on how quickly he reaches the big leagues.
7. Rick Porcello, Tigers (2007, 1/27): Four years, $7.285MM. Club options for the 2012 and 2013 seasons could put another $2.88MM in his pocket.
8. J.D. Drew, Cardinals (1998, 1/5): Four years, $7MM. Drew famously refused to sign with the Phillies as the second overall pick in the 1997 draft, as he and Boras stuck to their guarantee that he would not sign for less than $10MM.
9. Josh Beckett, Marlins (1999, 1/2): Four years, $7MM. Beckett was the first high school player to receive a Major League deal since Alex Rodriguez in 1993, and the first high school pitcher to get one since Van Poppel.
10. Eric Munson, Tigers (1999, 1/3): Four years, $6.75MM. The $3.5MM signing bonus was a club record until Porcello showed up.

Porcello joins Beckett as the only other prep player on the list, and oddly enough, both Strasburg and Ackley went undrafted out of high school. Everyone else was drafted multiple times. It's worth noting that the Yankees gave Andrew Brackman a four year, $4.55MM Major League contract as the 30th overall pick in 2007 ($3.35MM signing bonus), but club options and escalator clauses could push the total value of the deal to $13MM, second only to Strasburg's.

Minor League Contracts

1. Donavan Tate, Padres (2009, 1/3): $6.25MM
2. Buster Posey, Giants (2008, 1/5): $6.2MM
3. Tim Beckham, Rays (2008, 1/1): $6.15MM
4. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks (2005, 1/1): $6.1MM
5. Matt Wieters, Orioles (2007, 1/5): $6MM
6. Eric Hosmer, Royals (2008, 1/3): $6MM
7. Joe Borchard, White Sox (2000, 1/12): $5.3MM
8. Joe Mauer, Twins (2001, 1/1): $5.15MM
9. B.J. Upton, Rays (2002, 1/2): $4.6MM

Tate, Beckham, Borchard, Mauer, and both Upton brothers had their bonuses spread out over five years under baseball's provision for two-sport athletes. You can see that Borchard's deal held the record for half a decade before the younger Upton broke it. It's hard to believe that two extremely high profile college players like Wieters and Posey were unable to secure Major League deals out of the draft, but the fringe benefit is that they received all of their money up front.

Thanks to Jim Callis of Baseball America, Keith Law of ESPN, and Cot's Baseball Contracts for providing information used in this post.

Last year's free agent hot starts included Derek Lowe, Juan Cruz, and Braden Looper, so clearly we shouldn't draw conclusions on one month of the season.  Still, let's take a look at free agents off to solid starts in 2010.  It'll be interesting to look back at the end of the season and see what holds up.

• Kelly Johnson, Diamondbacks: Johnson has a .286/.393/.743 line and leads the NL with eight home runs.  We named him one of the ten best free agent signings of the offseason, and he's under team control for 2011.
• Vladimir Guerrero, Rangers: He's at .368/.424/.513, and he even played a game in right field.
• Marlon Byrd, Cubs: He sports a .333/.352/.548 line, plus yesterday's no-look catch.
• Alex Gonzalez, Blue Jays: He's shown more power than expected with five home runs and a .582 SLG so far.
• Johnny Damon, Tigers: He doesn't have a home run yet, but a .430 OBP will work.
• Scott Podsednik, Royals: He's also homerless, but has a .429 OBP on the young season.
• Bengie Molina, Giants: Like Podsednik, he's racking up hits and it's keeping his OBP over .400.
• Andruw Jones, White Sox: Jones has six home runs in just 61 plate appearances.  He's logged 90 innings in the outfield, too.  He's only had 51 plate appearances, but Austin Kearns deserves a nod too.
• Miguel Olivo, Rockies: His .314/.357/.647 makes him hard to sit, and the Rockies had enough faith to demote Chris Iannetta.
• Ivan Rodriguez, Nationals: Pudge's .400/.422/.517 start makes his much-maligned contract easier to stomach for now.
• Livan Hernandez, Nationals: Despite a 2.9 K/9, Livan has allowed three runs in 31 innings.
• Brad Penny, Cardinals: He's allowed only three earned runs, three walks, and zero home runs in 28.6 innings.  His newfound 53% groundball rate is promising.
• Andy Pettitte, Yankees: He's still rolling at age 37 with four runs allowed in 28 innings.
• Justin Duchscherer, Athletics: He missed all of '09 but has a 1.82 ERA early on in 2010.
• Jon Garland, Padres: Like Duchscherer, the peripherals don't quite match up, but Garland has a 2.57 ERA in his first five starts.
• Randy Wolf, Joel Pineiro, and Colby Lewis have also gotten the job done so far.
• Matt Capps, Nationals: The Nats have created opportunities, and Capps has taken advantage by saving all ten.  The Nationals can retain him for 2011 as an arbitration-eligible player.  Plenty of other relievers are having early success, including Rafael Soriano, Kevin Gregg, and Jose Valverde.

I recently read an article in which the author considered it a near-certainty that the Phillies would've snagged two solid draft picks had Ryan Howard departed as a free agent after the 2011 season.  That seems plausible on the surface – we know the Elias rankings don't use sophisticated numbers, and Howard seems like he would be a Type A lock.

However, a check of the 2008-09 Elias rankings for National League first basemen and outfielders shows that Howard ranked 23rd in the group at 76.296 points.  He's a Type A, but the 27th-ranked player, Skip Schumaker, starts off the Type Bs at 69.394. 

Several years ago, ESPN's Keith Law revealed that each league's 1B/OF groups are ranked based on five stats: plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, home runs, and runs batted in.  Even though Howard tallied 1403 PAs, 93 HR, and 287 RBI over 2008-09, his pedestrian .265 AVG and .349 OBP knocked him well down the rankings.  If Howard's 2010-11 production slips, he could easily be a Type B.  Elias' formulas might not be the best way of ranking players, but they're part of the fabric of many multi-million dollar decisions.  Looking ahead, the current collective bargaining agreement expires on December 11th, 2011, and we don't know if the formulas will be revamped.

Even if Howard did get Type A status, would the Phillies have offered arbitration?  We've seen plenty of instances where players coming off good seasons were not offered arbitration – Johnny Damon and Randy Wolf are two recent examples.  And there's always the chance the player accepts, like Rafael Soriano, Rafael Betancourt, and Carl Pavano did recently. 

If a team makes it all the way to the point of a Type A free agent being offered arbitration and declining, there's a chance the draft picks gained aren't great.  Look at the Blue Jays, received picks #34 and 80 for Marco Scutaro this year because the Red Sox also signed John Lackey.  Scutaro's Elias number of 83.069 was just below Lackey's 83.865 figure.  In the most extreme example, the Jays received picks #37 and 104 when Type A free agent A.J. Burnett signed with the Yankees a year prior.  You're at the mercy of which team signs your free agent.

The point of all of this: you can dream of getting picks #19 and 33 for your big-name departing free agent, like the Astros did for Jose Valverde this year, but many factors can derail the plan along the way.

A week ago we looked at the total free agent dollars brokered by top agencies during the 2009-10 offseason.  Today we expand the study to include arbitration contracts and multiyear deals as well.  The time period used stops at Opening Day, so several recent deals are not included.  Eighteen agencies brokered more than $25MM during the offseason; here's the list:

1. CAA: $253.292MM.  The Jason Bay, Roy Halladay, and Joe Blanton deals were their biggest.  Their total comes from 26 total contracts. 
2. Octagon: $212.5MM.  Big scores: John Lackey, Felix Hernandez, and Franklin Gutierrez.  It's not included in the figure here, but it should be noted that including Kenji Johjima, Octagon did almost an extra $15MM in Japan. 
3. Boras Corporation: $202.23MM.  Matt Holliday was Boras' major contract this offseason.
4. Shapiro/Maas: $184MM.  All Joe Mauer.
5. ACES: $164.893MM.  The Levinson brothers' deals were more spread out – Chone Figgins, Shane Victorino, Placido Polanco, Marlon Byrd, Jason Marquis, and others. 
6. SFX: $148.9MM.  Justin Verlander was their big one. 
7. Beverly Hills Sports Council: $132.92MM.  Their total includes the most players, at 28.  Their biggest: Tim Lincecum, Brian Wilson, Mark Reynolds, and Jose Valverde.  With Lincecum and Albert Pujols on the roster, this agency will remain healthy. 
8. Wasserman Media Group: $105MM.  WMG had a pair of decent-sized deals with Randy Wolf and Joel Pineiro. 
9. Hendricks Sports: $71.76MM.  Aroldis Chapman and Huston Street exceeded $20MM each. 
10. Reynolds Sports Management: $69.65MM.  They've got the Upton brothers, and Justin's contract makes up most of the total. 
11. Sosnick/Cobbe: $61.25MM.  Their total is led by Josh Johnson's deal.  Though it's not included in the total, Sosnick/Cobbe also landed $2MM worth of deals in Japan for Darrell Rasner and Randy Messenger. 
12. Peter Greenberg: $47.625MM.  Bobby Abreu and Marco Scutaro were the big contributors. 
13. TWC Sports: $43.1115MM.  They landed Tim Hudson's contract, among others. 
14. LSW Baseball: $35.67MM.  Their total is spread among 11 players, none exceeding Kelly Shoppach's $5.55MM extension. 
15. Legacy Sports: $34.5MM.  Contracts for Bobby Jenks and Brad Penny led the way. 
16. Barry Meister: $28.625MM.  Brandon Lyon's $15MM deal was the leader. 
17. Sexton/Landrum/Williams: $27.5MM.  This group was behind Matt Cain's $23MM extension. 
18. Career Sports: $24.845MM.  Mark DeRosa's $12MM pact played a large role. 

The figures are accurate to the best of our knowledge, but please contact us if you have any corrections.

Let's round up what each of the 30 teams are paying their highest paid player this season. This includes any known signing bonus payments, but not money being paid to a player by another team.

• Yankees: Alex Rodriguez, $33MM. That includes a portion of his signing bonus. A-Rod's contract is front-loaded, so his salary goes down as he gets older.
• Blue Jays: Vernon Wells, $21MM. That includes an $8.5MM signing bonus payment he received on March 1st.
• Mets: Johan Santana, $21MM. He could pocket another $1.4MM with award based bonuses.
• Dodgers: Manny Ramirez, $20MM. Hiroki Kuroda is the team's second highest paid player, but he's still $7MM behind Manny.
• Tigers: Miguel Cabrera, $20MM. Magglio Ordonez is only $2MM behind him.
• Astros: Carlos Lee, $19MM. Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman are both making $15MM as well.
• Phillies: Ryan Howard, $19MM. Roy Halladay will join him in the $20MM club next year.
• Giants: Barry Zito, $18.5MM. He could earn another $1.25MM in award bonuses.
• Angels: Torii Hunter, $18.5MM. $500K of that is part of his signing bonus, and he could pocket as much as another $1MM with award based bonuses.
• Cubs: Alfonso Soriano, $18MM. Carlos Zambrano is a mere $125K behind him.
• Red Sox: John Lackey, $18MM. Overtook J.D. Drew ($14MM) as the team's highest paid.
• Rockies: Todd Helton, $16.6MM. I suspect he's been their highest paid player for the last half-decade or so.
• Cardinals: Albert Pujols, $16MM. Matt Holliday's contract calls for a $17MM salary this season, but $2MM of that is deferred, so technically Pujols will make more this season.
• Rangers: Michael Young, $16MM. The second highest paid player on the club is nearly $10MM behind him.
• Braves: Derek Lowe, $15MM. Chipper Jones will earn $13MM, but could push past Lowe if he reaches some games played incentives.
• White Sox: Jake Peavy, $15MM. Mark Buehrle is $1MM behind him.
• Twins: Justin Morneau, $14MM. This only lasts until Joe Mauer's extension kicks in next year.
• Brewers: Jeff Suppan, $12.75MM. Believe it or not, there's another $1.3MM available to him this year in award based bonuses, plus $300K for each time he's traded.
• Reds: Aaron Harang, $12.5MM. Francisco Cordero is just half-a-million behind him.
• Athletics: Eric Chavez, $12MM. Award based bonuses could bump this up another $550K.
• Mariners: Ichiro Suzuki, $12MM. It should be $17MM, but $5MM is being deferred. He's still ahead of everyone else.
• Royals: Jose Guillen & Gil Meche, $12MM. Meche could earn $450K in award bonuses, $50K more than Guillen.
• Nationals: Adam Dunn, $12MM. No one else on the team is in eight-figure territory.
• Indians: Travis Hafner, $11.5MM. Hafner, Jake Westbrook ($11MM), and Kerry Wood ($10.5MM) account for approximately 54% of the team's payroll.
• Rays: Carlos Pena, $10.125MM. Carl Crawford is right behind him at $10MM.
• Orioles: Brian Roberts, $10MM. Kevin Millwood ($12MM) is making more, but the Rangers are on the hook for $3MM of that.
• Diamondbacks: Brandon Webb, $8.5MM. Dan Haren is just $250K behind him.
• Marlins: Dan Uggla, $7.8MM. Nate Robertson is technically the highest paid player on the team at $10MM, but the Tigers are paying all but $400K of that.
• Padres: Chris Young, $6.25MM. No one else on the team is over $5MM.
• Pirates: Paul Maholm, $4.5MM. He'll also receive a portion of his $1.5MM signing bonus.

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.

Each year, the 30 clubs will select 50 or so players in June's amateur draft, but they only end up signing around 30 of those players. Some are high schoolers that decide to go to college while others are already in college and return to school in an effort to boost their stock. There's about a million other reasons why a player can go unsigned as well.

As you can imagine, there have been several big time players who didn't sign when they were first drafted. If the Yankees had been able to sign Mark Prior when they selected him as the 43rd overall pick in the 1998 draft, might his career have played out differently?

Here's a list of some other famous players who at one point were drafted but declined to turn pro…

• Daniel Bard: Selected in the 20th round of the 2003 draft by the Yankees.
• Barry Bonds: Selected in the 2nd round of the 1982 draft by the Giants.
• David DeJesus: Selected in the 43rd round of the 1997 draft by the Mets.
• J.D. Drew: Selected by the Giants in the 20th round of the 1994 draft, then second overall by the Phillies in 1997.
• Rich Harden: Selected by the Mariners in the 38th round of the 1999 draft.
• Todd Helton: Selected by the Padres in the 2nd round of the 1992 draft.
• Aaron Hill: Selected by the Angels in the 7th round of the 2000 draft.
• Luke Hochevar: Selected in the 39th round of the 2002 draft and the supplemental first round of the 2005 draft, both times by the Dodgers.
• Randy Johnson: Selected in the 4th round of the 1982 draft by the Braves.
• Matt LaPorta: Selected in the 14th round of both the 2003 and 2006 drafts by the Cubs and Red Sox, respectively.
• Tim Lincecum: Selected in the 48th round of the 2003 draft by the Cubs, then the 42nd round of the 2005 draft by the Indians.
• Brian Matusz: Selected by the Angels in the 4th round of the 2005 draft.
• Mark McGwire: Selected in the 8th round of the 1981 draft by the Expos.
• Jonathan Papelbon: Selected by the A's in the 40th round of the 2002 draft.
• David Price: Selected by the Angels in the 19th round of the 2004 draft.
• Justin Smoak: Selected in the 16th round of the 2005 draft by the A's.
• Mark Teixeira: Selected by the Red Sox in the 9th round of the 1998 draft.
• Chase Utley. Selected in the 2nd round of the 1997 draft by the Dodgers.
• Jason Varitek: Selected in the 23rd round of the 1990 draft by the Astros, and then the 1st round of the 1993 draft by the Twins.
• Barry Zito: Selected by the Mariners in the 59th round of the 1996 draft, and then the Rangers in the 3rd round of the 1998 draft.

There's countless more examples out there, do you know of any others? 

We've already looked at the largest contracts by team, service time, and position, so now let's round up the biggest contracts based on average annual value…

1. Alex Rodriguez: $27.5MM (2008-2017)
2. Alex Rodriguez: $25.2MM (2001-2007)
3. Joe Mauer (2011-2018) & CC Sabathia (2009-2015): $23MM
4. Johan Santana: $22.92MM (2008-2013)
5. Manny Ramirez (2009-2010) & Mark Teixeira (2009-2016): $22.5MM 
6. Roger Clemens: $22MM (2006)
7. Manny Ramirez (2001-2008) & Roy Halladay (2011-2013): $20MM
8. Miguel Cabrera: $19.04MM (2008-2015)
9. Derek Jeter: $18.9MM (2001-2010)
10. Carlos Zambrano: $18.3MM (2008-2012)

The Yankees paid Clemens the pro-rated portion of a $28MM salary in 2007, but he only collected about $17.6MM since his season started in June.

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.